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Author Topic: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware -- GAME OVER, SCUM WIN  (Read 224162 times)

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Lekkit

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1800 on: April 19, 2013, 08:37:20 am »

And this will probably kill me, but, I'm going to Unvote.
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Lekkit

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1801 on: April 19, 2013, 08:39:55 am »

Actually, I'll put my vote out there. And I'm going back to Vote: ashersky.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1802 on: April 19, 2013, 10:37:34 am »

If I had a scum team of 4 in a 16 person game, I would BUS THE CRAP outta that person day 1.

Yes. Thank you. This times ten.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1803 on: April 19, 2013, 10:44:00 am »

Okay, to me bussing=contrbuting to the lynch of your partner. Like, driving a case on him all day with a fake cop result would be the ultimate bus, what Arche (supposedly) did to Kooshie was a very mild version. Still, I think it's very different from you not mentioning him at all or mcmc outright defending him.

It is very different. I am just asking you to look at it from the eyes of scum. What is more likely that scum will just sit back and watch their partner get lynched w/o doing anything. Or would scum do something?

Again I reference MIII. We both sat back and did nothing as volt was lynched. After that it became obvious who the partners were in me and you. I was next, quickly followed by you. Our doing nothing cost us the game. I learned heavily from that experience and never, ever played scum that way again.

That is exactly my argument for why I think bussing was involved in Kooshie's lynch. Yes, I know it happened quickly, but what generally happened was that a bunch of people lynched her while everyone else sat back and watched. And if scum don't want to sit back and watch...
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Jorbles

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1804 on: April 19, 2013, 10:49:55 am »

Insomniac's post on OFF/ON
ash's post explaining his N/F notation which I like more.
The biggest problem I have with Insomniac's analysis is that he manages to say that 3 of the 4 possible voting configurations are the scummiest. (The one that's not, surprise, his own.) F/N is the OBVS SCUMMY place. N/N is the scummiest place to be, except for N/F which is tied for scummiest. The only not scummy place is Insomniac/mcmc's F/F, the smallest category. This doesn't narrow down or simplify how we should vote at all, in fact it blows up, whereas before we were arguing to lynch someone from the scummiest place, now we're looking at lynching people from everywhere because everywhere is the scummiest.

I do like that this has at least gotten some discussion going though. However I much preferred ash's poll because at least it helped us line up people we can agree on lynching. (more on that in next post.)
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1805 on: April 19, 2013, 11:04:39 am »

Why are we so bent on figuring out what voting pattern scum would have? If we were in this exact situation a bunch of times, it would be different every time. Okay, sure scum might be in a particular group more often than other groups, so it's worth looking at. But I think saying that we must lynch someone from this particular group is not the way to go about it. I mean, yeah, it's fair enough to look closely at the group you think scum are going to be in more often than other groups, and if a particular person in that group fits the scenario well enough then you have the makings of a reasonable lynch, but for a Townie to rule out the other groups based entirely on voting patterns is terrible play. Stop telling me how some hypothetical scum would vote and start telling me why this particular playing voting and arguing that particular way makes them likely to be scum.
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Jorbles

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1806 on: April 19, 2013, 11:11:50 am »

So far here is the list of everyone's scummy to towny lists. (If more people do them we might be able to come to some consensus on who we should lynch. I'm going to take the bottom few(ish) from everyone and see what comes up.

Scummy to Towny List:

Ozle >>> Jorbles >>> mcmcsalot >>> Eevee >>> Lekkit >>> Insomniac >>> yuma >>> sudgy/raerae/Archetype/Jimmmmm >>> ashersky
Scum- Jimm, arch, ozzle
Slight scum- Yuma, raerae, eevee, ash
Slight town- lekkit, sudgy
Town- insom, jorbles

yuma's list is scummy to not scummy
for me it is archetype/Jimmmm.... all other players.... yuma

Scummy--->towny
Archetype/Jimmmmm/yuma >>> Insomniac/Lekkit/mcmc >>> Ozle/raerae/ashersky >>> Eevee/sudgy >>> Me

So, if I had to put an order on scumminess:

sudgy > Lekkit > yuma > raerae > Jorbles/Arch > Ozle > mcmc > Insom > Eevee > ash

Scummiest to least scummy
sudgy > Eevee/Jorbles/ashersky > Lekkit/raerae > Jimm/Ozle/Archetype > mcmcsalot/yuma >>>>> Insomniac

ash: Ozle, Jorbles, mcmc
mcmc: Jimmm, Arch, Ozle
yuma: archetype, Jimmmm
Jorbles: Archetype, Jimmmm, yuma
Jimmmm: sudgy, Lekkit, yuma
Insomniac: sudgy, Eevee, Jorbles, ashersky

With 3 people thinking they are scummy we have Jimmmm and Archetype. (all listed as scummy by mcmc, yuma, and me) ashersky probably won't lynch Arch or Jimmmm. Insomniac also probably won't based on where he's placed them. Jimmmm we can assume won't lynch himself, but might lynch Archetype as he placed him in a kindof null position.

Can more people make this list? Maybe we already are close to lynch consensus on someone and we don't realize it?

Offtopic, but I still want to talk about it:
I would like to point out that I'm in the 2 people finding me scummy spot. Insomniac has kindof said why he thinks I'm scummy, and I don't agree with him (obvs), but I see where he's coming from, if he's town anyways. I think Insomniac reads me badly though (at least I remember him being convinced I was scum in a game where I wasn't.) Maybe RM3? Not sure. ashersky has just kinda vaguely insinuated that he finds me scummy, but hasn't said why. At the risk of accidentally building a wagon on myself near our soft deadline why do you find me scummy ash? (I think Eevee has done this too, but I'm not sure. He never made a reads list.)
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Jorbles

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1807 on: April 19, 2013, 11:14:17 am »

Why are we so bent on figuring out what voting pattern scum would have? If we were in this exact situation a bunch of times, it would be different every time. Okay, sure scum might be in a particular group more often than other groups, so it's worth looking at. But I think saying that we must lynch someone from this particular group is not the way to go about it. I mean, yeah, it's fair enough to look closely at the group you think scum are going to be in more often than other groups, and if a particular person in that group fits the scenario well enough then you have the makings of a reasonable lynch, but for a Townie to rule out the other groups based entirely on voting patterns is terrible play. Stop telling me how some hypothetical scum would vote and start telling me why this particular playing voting and arguing that particular way makes them likely to be scum.

I still think it's useful, but it's become apparent that this line of reasoning isn't making people agree on who should be lynched. I suggest we move past it and try to find some consensus on who people think is scummy. We can still draw on these arguments for why or why we don't think someone is scummy.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1808 on: April 19, 2013, 11:14:59 am »

ash: Ozle, Jorbles, mcmc
mcmc: Jimmm, Arch, Ozle
yuma: archetype, Jimmmm
Jorbles: Archetype, Jimmmm, yuma
Jimmmm: sudgy, Lekkit, yuma
Insomniac: sudgy, Eevee, Jorbles, ashersky

With 3 people thinking they are scummy we have Jimmmm and Archetype. (all listed as scummy by mcmc, yuma, and me) ashersky probably won't lynch Arch or Jimmmm. Insomniac also probably won't based on where he's placed them. Jimmmm we can assume won't lynch himself, but might lynch Archetype as he placed him in a kindof null position.

Interesting that there are also at least three people (ash, Lekkit and Eevee) who seem to be fairly confident that I'm Town.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1809 on: April 19, 2013, 11:16:25 am »

Why are we so bent on figuring out what voting pattern scum would have? If we were in this exact situation a bunch of times, it would be different every time. Okay, sure scum might be in a particular group more often than other groups, so it's worth looking at. But I think saying that we must lynch someone from this particular group is not the way to go about it. I mean, yeah, it's fair enough to look closely at the group you think scum are going to be in more often than other groups, and if a particular person in that group fits the scenario well enough then you have the makings of a reasonable lynch, but for a Townie to rule out the other groups based entirely on voting patterns is terrible play. Stop telling me how some hypothetical scum would vote and start telling me why this particular playing voting and arguing that particular way makes them likely to be scum.

I still think it's useful, but it's become apparent that this line of reasoning isn't making people agree on who should be lynched. I suggest we move past it and try to find some consensus on who people think is scummy. We can still draw on these arguments for why or why we don't think someone is scummy.

Of course it's still useful, but I think specific cases are far more useful than trying to figure out how some unknown scum would vote.
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Jorbles

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1810 on: April 19, 2013, 11:30:41 am »

Actually Eevee did something like the list, but I missed it in my original read over because it was in a less identifiable format:

scummy people:
mcmc, yuma, Ozle, Archetype, Insomniac

Others, meh. The meta read on him maybe a bit more than cancels him being off the Kooshie wagon. Jorbles is someone I'm noticing often feels scummy to me, as does Lekkit. Ashersky I think is towny. Others I have very little on. Hard to keep track of such large games, especially after the day 1 scum lynch sort of brought the spotlight on a small subset of people.

This means 4 people think Archetype is scummy. The other reads make yuma and Ozle stand out a bit more.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1811 on: April 19, 2013, 11:31:36 am »

Offtopic, but I still want to talk about it:
I would like to point out that I'm in the 2 people finding me scummy spot. Insomniac has kindof said why he thinks I'm scummy, and I don't agree with him (obvs), but I see where he's coming from, if he's town anyways. I think Insomniac reads me badly though (at least I remember him being convinced I was scum in a game where I wasn't.) Maybe RM3? Not sure. ashersky has just kinda vaguely insinuated that he finds me scummy, but hasn't said why. At the risk of accidentally building a wagon on myself near our soft deadline why do you find me scummy ash? (I think Eevee has done this too, but I'm not sure. He never made a reads list.)

Fair point, I haven't really explained my scum read on you.

I was quasi-vocal about you on D1, but to be honest it was a long time ago and I'm not sure why anymore.  So we'll ignore the scummy feelings from D1 and start fresh on D2.  I think you are guilty of the Top Gunning it. (I just made that term up.)  That is, you are buzzed the tower with a flurry of posts with some easy to produce content, and then swoop back into the sky (lurkiness).  You were lurky, then chatty with easy content, then lurky again.  You were fine pushing a lynch without seeming too invested in the reasoning (Jimmmmm's, at the time).  I think there's probably a little bit of OMGUS on D2, too.

On D3, you've been townier, which I think is what scum!Jorbles does.  We were scum together in LOLCats, although that wasn't much as far as structure went, so I'm not really using it as a basis to go off of.  Meta-wise, we have modded together a fair bit, and played together a few games (including both our first games, where you were caught scum!), so I think I have a feel for your playstyle.

So, a mix of gut/meta/experience and Top Gunning.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1812 on: April 19, 2013, 11:34:23 am »

Following this game is going to be crazy hard now that I am v/la, when is our deadline?
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1813 on: April 19, 2013, 11:35:16 am »

Following this game is going to be crazy hard now that I am v/la, when is our deadline?

If it makes it easier, feel free to give up and admit you are scum (if you are).
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1814 on: April 19, 2013, 11:39:09 am »

Following this game is going to be crazy hard now that I am v/la, when is our deadline?

If it makes it easier, feel free to give up and admit you are scum (if you are).

It would be much easier, I'm not however(I wouldn't anyway)

But as were aproaching deadline I think I am going to

vote: jimm

Still think hes likely scum and since I am not going to be around much more this is where my vote will probably stay.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1815 on: April 19, 2013, 12:42:04 pm »

Okay, I actually have had time to reread!(I was left alone while everyone went out to run errands, I was supposed to eat but hunger pangs are nothing compared to mafia withdrawal symptoms)

Sadly my reread didn't give me much. I want raerae's popsquiz asap, I think there is potential for one of eevee/raerae to be scum, they have played similarly and I think its a scummy way to play: low impact, protected jimm for little reasoning, and I believe raerae is in the category of bandwagon vote jumpers. Also her constant post about me are interesting, her stance is always very slight towny or very slight suspicious with chance of going either way. Now she could be town and I don't expect her to give a concrete read on me but I do think she would be more likely to give a concrete read on me as town then as scum. I think she wants to leave the option open to say I'm scummy and get me lynched, but she doesn't want to try to make a case for it either way and draw that attention to herself.

As far as the whole yuma jazz goes, I really don't know the game has gotten long enough( I believe this is the second biggest game I've been in) and in Ds9 I had no clue yuma was scum. So while I would say I lean town on him its not a strong leaning, I do agree with much of what he has said though.

Lekkit I think I need to reread from start to finish and I'll do that soon here. Same with arch because I know I found sparky towny but now arch seems scummy.

Ashersky seems to have dropped down in how visible he is this game, which I think is a scummy trait, he seems to appear and do some pushing and then melt away to drop any suspicion from him.

also I think the jimm lynch would still give us soo much to work with, I really wish it was him instead of mail-mi and now there is more of a priority to make a strong case though I think its not as easy as it should be for a day 3, I think our scum lynch day 1 gave a good amount of info but pigeonholed our day 2 especially with the mail-mi lynch. So people looking for a home run case today its not going to happen. Lynching someone for lurking or someone who has a lot of interactions isn't a terrible idea.
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Jorbles

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1816 on: April 19, 2013, 12:44:08 pm »

Me asking ashersky why he thinks I'm scummy.

Fair point, I haven't really explained my scum read on you.

I was quasi-vocal about you on D1, but to be honest it was a long time ago and I'm not sure why anymore.  So we'll ignore the scummy feelings from D1 and start fresh on D2.  I think you are guilty of the Top Gunning it. (I just made that term up.)  That is, you are buzzed the tower with a flurry of posts with some easy to produce content, and then swoop back into the sky (lurkiness).  You were lurky, then chatty with easy content, then lurky again.  You were fine pushing a lynch without seeming too invested in the reasoning (Jimmmmm's, at the time).  I think there's probably a little bit of OMGUS on D2, too.

On D3, you've been townier, which I think is what scum!Jorbles does.  We were scum together in LOLCats, although that wasn't much as far as structure went, so I'm not really using it as a basis to go off of.  Meta-wise, we have modded together a fair bit, and played together a few games (including both our first games, where you were caught scum!), so I think I have a feel for your playstyle.

So, a mix of gut/meta/experience and Top Gunning.

I think what you call Top Gunning I would just call my schedule. When I'm busy I ignore the game, but when I am available I do my best to address what happened when I was away. I often don't have time to catch up on everything (especially in this game which is a fairly huge undertaking) I don't think what I post is "easy content", but I suspect we'll agree to disagree on that. Beyond that it sounds like you're trusting your gut, which I can't really argue with.

Did I vote for you D2? I don't remember doing that so I'm not sure why you have the OMGUS feelings. Unless you just mean that in the context of you dislike how I'm playing so you think it might be scummy, not in the hurt-feelings I-can't-believe-you-voted-for-me way.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1817 on: April 19, 2013, 12:45:49 pm »

I'm not going to go into full analysis at this point but I'll say what I can about each other person off the top of my head.

raerae: Can't remember much of what she's said. Slight scumread based on lack of activity.

yuma: Who knows really? Hasn't felt as polished as say MnM when he was scum. On the other hand, he does seem to be making big assumptions based on almost a formulaic approach: scum's biggest Townread is probscum, people who voted a certain way are probscum, without backing that up with a lot of actual particular reasons. Maybe they were there, I can't remember, but the assumptions seem to be his main arguments.

ashersky: Maybe this comes from bias, I'm not sure, but seems Towny for finding me Towny based on comparing this game to LoTR.

Insomniac: Agrees with me on sudgy, so that's a point in his favour from my point of view.

Eevee: Similar to ash.

Jorbles: Can't seem to remember much that he's said.

sparky5856 Archetype: Neutral. yuma's case looks decent, I'll have to look into that further.

mcmcsalot: Despite wanting to find him scummy for accusing me of being scummy, I am leaning Town. One reason for that is his continuing to argue against me even when others started finding me Towny/less scummy. I feel like scum mcmc is more likely to follow the crowd? I feel differently about yuma on this, though, I can totally see scum yuma sticking with his "read".

sudgy: Still my biggest scumread. I really feel like his reasons for arguing for me and then backflip on that once I called him out on it were fake. I understand why people don't want to lynch him today, and hopefully the key thing can help shed some light one way or another.

Lekkit: I find him fairly scummy for saying he thought I was Town but would support lynching me.

Ozle: Who knows? Leaning slight Town for how loud and in people's faces he's been at times, but I could easily be wrong.

So, if I had to put an order on scumminess:

sudgy > Lekkit > yuma > raerae > Jorbles/Arch > Ozle > mcmc > Insom > Eevee > ash

I will look up this case on sudgy, Jimm is really looking townier to me based on his contributions I think ash is very wrong when he said you didn't up your contributions. Jimm you say you find eevee townie for similar reasons to ash, I didn't think eevee gave very good reasons at all for finding you townie, he was much similar to raerae who you put very far apart.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1818 on: April 19, 2013, 12:47:35 pm »

Me asking ashersky why he thinks I'm scummy.

Fair point, I haven't really explained my scum read on you.

I was quasi-vocal about you on D1, but to be honest it was a long time ago and I'm not sure why anymore.  So we'll ignore the scummy feelings from D1 and start fresh on D2.  I think you are guilty of the Top Gunning it. (I just made that term up.)  That is, you are buzzed the tower with a flurry of posts with some easy to produce content, and then swoop back into the sky (lurkiness).  You were lurky, then chatty with easy content, then lurky again.  You were fine pushing a lynch without seeming too invested in the reasoning (Jimmmmm's, at the time).  I think there's probably a little bit of OMGUS on D2, too.

On D3, you've been townier, which I think is what scum!Jorbles does.  We were scum together in LOLCats, although that wasn't much as far as structure went, so I'm not really using it as a basis to go off of.  Meta-wise, we have modded together a fair bit, and played together a few games (including both our first games, where you were caught scum!), so I think I have a feel for your playstyle.

So, a mix of gut/meta/experience and Top Gunning.

I think what you call Top Gunning I would just call my schedule. When I'm busy I ignore the game, but when I am available I do my best to address what happened when I was away. I often don't have time to catch up on everything (especially in this game which is a fairly huge undertaking) I don't think what I post is "easy content", but I suspect we'll agree to disagree on that. Beyond that it sounds like you're trusting your gut, which I can't really argue with.

Did I vote for you D2? I don't remember doing that so I'm not sure why you have the OMGUS feelings. Unless you just mean that in the context of you dislike how I'm playing so you think it might be scummy, not in the hurt-feelings I-can't-believe-you-voted-for-me way.

Didn't look closely at this, I think ash is top gunning it so calling someone out for it is interesting. I mean obviously ash has been doing a good job of keeping posting up but I think as far as how much attention he brings he is top gunning. Ash is looking scummier in my eyes.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1819 on: April 19, 2013, 12:58:07 pm »

To those that said I didn't provide much content because I would still lynch anyone but me, you clearly didn't understand my post so I'll make it more clear. There are exactly 4 people I want to lynch out of 12. But if we need to get a lynch I could be convinced to vote for just about anyone else the lower they are on the list the more convincing I would need however.

@Jorbles...Did you read my on off post, I mean you say you did but you come out saying I say the 3 groups that I'm not in are just as scummy and this is false. I said that OFF ON is the most obviously scummy, but I don't think its actually scummy at all. Note where I actually placed the OFF ON Group on my list. I also said that for OFF OFF I'm town so there is one person in OFF OFF, and eh I could be convinced to ynch mcmc but I think its more likely he is just in the same boat as me.

Additionally I disagree that OFF OFF means we are being bad townies not using our vote enough, even if i was around I don't think I would have supported the Kooshie or the mail-mi wagon.
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1820 on: April 19, 2013, 01:09:24 pm »

just reread that insom, your post was confusing I had thought the same thing as jorbles when I read it.

So now understanding I do like your thoughts, what do you think about my semi case on raerae?
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1821 on: April 19, 2013, 01:11:20 pm »

Vote Count 3.6

Archetype (1) -- yuma
Lekkit (3) -- Archetype, sudgy, raerae
Ozle (1) -- ashersky
yuma (2) -- Eevee, Jorbles
ashersky (2) -- Insomniac, Lekkit
Jimm (1) -- mcmcsalot

Not Voting (2) -- Ozle, Jimm

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. There are 17 days remaining. Deadline is May 6 at 7:00 PM.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Jorbles

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1822 on: April 19, 2013, 01:28:33 pm »

@Jorbles...Did you read my on off post, I mean you say you did but you come out saying I say the 3 groups that I'm not in are just as scummy and this is false. I said that OFF ON is the most obviously scummy, but I don't think its actually scummy at all. Note where I actually placed the OFF ON Group on my list. I also said that for OFF OFF I'm town so there is one person in OFF OFF, and eh I could be convinced to ynch mcmc but I think its more likely he is just in the same boat as me.

I did read it, but despite the fact that you claimed that OFF ON wasn't scummy you made an argument for it being scummy, which read to me like you were saying that it was both scummy and not scummy at the same time. Anyhow I understand what you mean now. Though I don't agree with it. Sometimes scum just acts scummy.

(I just realized that I don't agree with my list of reads anymore) I had forgotten about mcmc's bizarre allusions to something that happened to him at night that makes me think he's probably town. I'd move him up to the townier side of things. 
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Jorbles

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1823 on: April 19, 2013, 01:30:43 pm »

Anyhow I'm going to move my vote back to Archetype as there seems to be more consensus there, and he's one of my top 3 people to lynch. Vote: archetype.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #1824 on: April 19, 2013, 01:33:06 pm »

well I am here now... sorry my bus was a little bit delayed.

looking at the vote count above, we certainly haven't reached a consensus, not even on possible lynch candidates. Not good. How can we get a lynch going?

We don't have ozle around, sudgy is gone for a bit and mcmc isn't going to be super available.

PPE: a vote on arch. that is good.
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