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[Insomniac]

Off Kooshie, On Mail-mi - yuma, Jimm, Ozle, Archetype

Common sense tells us we NEED to lynch from this group.  Ozle is scum, but the yuma lynch would be mighty informative.  I'd rather lynch scum.

Excuse me? Thats a bit of a leap as I don't find that group particularly scummy, off on is just as likely a town mistake.

That group all has a reasonable amount of experience under their belt, you really think that any of them would be in the "lol wagon analysis says your obvscum" group?

I agree the yuma lynch would be highly informative. I strongly oppose it though. (Eevee and Jorbles who I have at a high rate of scumminess are voting for him right now)

[ashersky]

Off Kooshie, On Mail-mi - yuma, Jimm, Ozle, Archetype

Common sense tells us we NEED to lynch from this group.  Ozle is scum, but the yuma lynch would be mighty informative.  I'd rather lynch scum.

Excuse me? Thats a bit of a leap as I don't find that group particularly scummy, off on is just as likely a town mistake.

That group all has a reasonable amount of experience under their belt, you really think that any of them would be in the "lol wagon analysis says your obvscum" group?

I agree the yuma lynch would be highly informative. I strongly oppose it though. (Eevee and Jorbles who I have at a high rate of scumminess are voting for him right now)

I mean, I get your point.  I think Jimmmmm is town, so the other three are fair game.

I don't mean to argue we should only look at this group to lynch.  I just hate to think we're going to do the normal f.ds thing of ignoring the obvious.  I mean, really, we do that all the time.

I agree with you on Jorbles being scummy.  He's my #2 after Ozle.

[Eevee]

Nice way of twisting things Ins. On one hand we have Eevee, second to join a wagon on scum and a big contributor in making that happen who didnt join in a (stupid) town lynch day 2. On the other we have the guys who werent there lynch scum day1 but were suddenly eager to join he mailmi lynch that had all the makings of an easy mislynch. Analysis = Eevee is scummy.

I think your logic is a bit backwards. Scum REALLY don't want their partner lynched day 1. They did really want mailmi yesterday, especially if one of them was one of the alternatives. Scum couldnt possible have afforded losing another member yesterday.

[Insomniac]

Nice way of twisting things Ins. On one hand we have Eevee, second to join a wagon on scum and a big contributor in making that happen who didnt join in a (stupid) town lynch day 2. On the other we have the guys who werent there lynch scum day1 but were suddenly eager to join he mailmi lynch that had all the makings of an easy mislynch. Analysis = Eevee is scummy.

I think your logic is a bit backwards. Scum REALLY don't want their partner lynched day 1. They did really want mailmi yesterday, especially if one of them was one of the alternatives. Scum couldnt possible have afforded losing another member yesterday.

Oh comon Eevee. Thats garbage and you know it, you know in past games I've bussed a teammate on day 1, you've done the same.

[Eevee]

I'm not saying it's impossible. If it was, we'd know all the scum already and poor mail-mi would be alive!

Seems to me you are saying "being off the scum wagon is towny", which is just backwards.

You are seriously building a case on me for using my vote too well.

[ashersky]

I'm not saying it's impossible. If it was, we'd know all the scum already and poor mail-mi would be alive!

Seems to me you are saying "being off the scum wagon is towny", which is just backwards.

You are seriously building a case on me for using my vote too well.

A case can be built on Insom for not using his vote at all.

[Eevee]

I think so too. Certainly bad town play at the very least, which is unlike insomniac.

[yuma]

So while I see Insomniac's point, and it very well may be a correct one, I have to say that it goes against everything I have been thinking this entire game.

This is mostly based off the idea that in all of the previous games until MXII bussing early, especially day1 is bad news bears for scum. Losing a partner that early has been shown to be devastating. Look at MXVII where cayvie bussed Lekkit hard and they got crushed. Or MXIX where I bussed glooble to what I thought was my benefit, but ended up being one of the contributing factors to my loss.

As such, I learned from my experience (and I think others have learned from experience or from direct observation) that bussing so strong and so hard day1 is often a bad move. As such bussing of late seems to have been on the way out.

I do acknowledge that it is a possibility, Jimmm and I had this discussion earlier... But it is extremely risky play!

In looking at your voting breakdown you basically separate it into four groups. If I had to guess I would guess that there is a scum in each of the two larger groups (On/Off, Off/On) and one split in the two smaller groups (On/On, Off/Off). So basically there is one scum for every four players. This isn't surefire, but based off it from a neutral point of view odds of hitting scum are somewhat equal in each group. But because I am in the Off/On group and know I am not scum I can eliminate myself and have a better % (again everything being neutral and assuming that scum is divided the way I outlined) of hitting scum if I vote for a player in my category. Hence my vote on archetype.

If I were to vote for someone On the kooshie wagon it would have to be someone that was late getting onto it. I think that is a much likely scenario. someone who got on it once they realized it was going through, rather than someone that bussed from the very beginning... I think ash fits this better than the other players you outline as I think he was a late comer.

Add in one important factor is that each of the two night kills have come on people ON the Kooshie wagon. I think scum in general tends to use its night kill on a person the opposite of what they are to keep a higher pool of players with similar attributes as them for town to lynch from.

That is if scum has 2 On and 1 off, scum will generally night kill someone off the wagon.

If scum has 1 off and 2 on, scum will generally night kill someone on the wagon.

[Insomniac]

That is if scum has 2 On and 1 off, scum will generally night kill someone off the wagon.

If scum has 1 off and 2 on, scum will generally night kill someone on the wagon.

These are the same things with different results although I assume you meant 1 on and 2 off in the second scenario. But I also disagree with this, I personally like slimming the group I'm in and being GUYS WIFOM!

[yuma]

That is if scum has 2 On and 1 off, scum will generally night kill someone off the wagon.

If scum has 1 off and 2 on, scum will generally night kill someone on the wagon.

These are the same things with different results although I assume you meant 1 on and 2 off in the second scenario. But I also disagree with this, I personally like slimming the group I'm in and being GUYS WIFOM!

yes, that is what I meant.

and like I said, I believe that generally that is where the night kill falls... not always but generally.

Looking back at previous games day1 NKs compared to where scum was.
MI: scum was split 1on/1off, NK was off. Neutral
MII: scum were both on, NK was off. Opposite
MIII: 1 scum on, 2 scum off. NK was off. Same
MIV: can't tell, multiple scum teams
MV: can't tell, multiple NKs
MVI: can't tell, multiple scum teams
MVII: 1 on/1off, NK was on. Neutral
MVIII: no day1 lynch
MIX: multiple night kills
MX: 1on/1off, NK was on, Neutral
MXI: multiple night kills
MXII: 1on/2off, NK was off. Same
MXIII: both on, NK was off, Opposite
MXIV: 1 on/2 off, NK was on, Opposite
MXV: 1 on/2 off, NK was off, same
MXVI: 2on/1 off, NK was on, same
MXVII: 1on/1 off (Mafia lynch), NK was off, neutral
MXVIII: multiple night kills
MXIX: multiple night kills
MXX: multiple night kills
MXXI: 1on/1off, NK was off, neutral.

I am not looking at blitz. But from a brief skip it appears that there have been 3 times where a scum team night killed on the other side of where the majority was. and 4 times where a scum team night killed on the same side was.

So I appear to be wrong, that it generally happens. But it does seem like the more basic and obvious conclusion.

Maybe that is my problem this game, I am assuming that scum is going to play obviously? Although the obvious play hasn't been disproved and I am inclined to disprove it before giving up on it.

[raerae]

Done with my last event for the month but I won't be able to do a full reread by the softdeadline tomorrow.  I'm happy with my vote where it is for now but will do the promised rereads of Arch & Insom tomorrow if we're still up and running. 

[sudgy]

I'm not going to be able to get on until after the soft deadline (I think), and there doesn't seem to be any consensus as to who is going to be voted for...  Could we try to figure that out?

[Lekkit]

The best thing to do to try to figure it out is by voting for the person you want lynched. Which I assume is me. I don't think there could be a consensensus without any discussion. Ins tried, why don't you do the same?

In the meantime, I'm going to give my thoughts on his analysis.

[Eevee]

yuma, I assume you have reread Archetype. I wonder, you seem to think it's likelier that scum didnt bus, but Archetype clearly did. He didn't vote, but he did contribute to the wagon / all his comments about it were positive. Is that troubling to you?

[Lekkit]

OFF-ON is the most OBVIOUSLY scummy place to be. Now we've seen yuma here before but really I mean huge town vibe this game for me. I suspect probably 1 of the remaining 3 is in this pair.

I would not be super opposed to lynching people here, I mean, look at my vote.

I don't think Ozle has been particularily scummy. The obvious thing to talk about regarding Ozle is his defense against the "case" on him. If memory serves me right, though, he was mostly just frustrated, and I could see both scum and town do that. However, I'd like to think that Ozle would play better scum than falling in the same trap that his partner did day 1. So I'm leaning town here, but not that much, and only from memory.

Jimm, I think is town.

Archetype has been lurky and not really doing much. Would be willing to lynch him.

I think yuma is scum, hence my vote on him.

ON-ON - Now we're looking at something. If I had a scum team of 4 in a 16 person game, I would BUS THE CRAP outta that person day 1. I actually think THIS is one of the scummiest places to be the other one being.

Even with 4 team members, I would not want to bus hard day 1. The one pushing hardest here was lio. Guess what he flipped. Town. I can't really remember raerae being super on the wagon, I don't even remember if she had subbed in by then. I'll go check so that I don't sound completely stupid. She was subbed in. And she didn't really push hard. Joined in the wagon pretty late, though. I would consider voting for her, but probably not today.

ON-OFF -This might look towniest, but i think its tied for scummiest, ON-OFF implies knowledge about peoples roles, knowledge that scum have, sure some townies probably ended up in here by dumb luck but man this is where I want to look (Bus for town cred, dissassociate for town cred)

I kind of agree with you here, but I don't think there's more than 1 scum in the group. My guess is that it's ashersky. When I'm scum I prefer to not be on the same place as my team mates all the time, and that's why I don't think there's more than 1 here.

OFF-OFF - Well I'm town, im not opposed to lynching mcmc, but eh, I don't think its particularily scummy to be here.

I don't think this is a scummy position either. It looks more like townies not voting.

So to answer the pops quiz
Scummiest to least scummy
sudgy > Eevee/Jorbles/ashersky > Lekkit/raerae > Jimm/Ozle/Archetype > mcmcsalot/yuma >>>>> Insomniac

I can't vote for sudgy. You can bet on me placing a Vote: ashersky though. (I could be convinced to vote for anyone today other than mcmcsalot yuma, but prefer, Eevee/Jorbles/Ash/Sudgy)

Why can't you vote for sudgy?

[Lekkit]

One thing to note, however, is that you promise this wagon analysis and then says that there's probably three scum among 10 out of 12 players. And you would be willing to vote for the eleventh as well. That's basically you saying, anyone besides me could be scum. Not much new information here.

[yuma]

yuma, I assume you have reread Archetype. I wonder, you seem to think it's likelier that scum didnt bus, but Archetype clearly did. He didn't vote, but he did contribute to the wagon / all his comments about it were positive. Is that troubling to you?

of course I reread him! Did you read my case on him?

Except that he didn't! Bussing=voting for your partner. Sparky never did that! He said he would be willing to do so, but never, ever did! Which is exactly how I would expect scum to act when their partner gets targeted day1. 1. they don't want their partner lynched, so they don't vote for him because their vote gets them one vote closer. 2. but if their partner does get lynched, they want to look townie in the process, so they say they would be willing!

And look at when sparky started talking about Kooshie. At 4 votes, right when the wagon started picking up steam. Exactly when scum has to start talking about their partner so it doesn't become apparent that they are trying to hide something!

Don't give him town credit that he doesn't deserve. and again xeiron, thanks for the derphammer man, because right now we could have used that information that you stole from town... GAH!

[Eevee]

yuma, I assume you have reread Archetype. I wonder, you seem to think it's likelier that scum didnt bus, but Archetype clearly did. He didn't vote, but he did contribute to the wagon / all his comments about it were positive. Is that troubling to you?

of course I reread him! Did you read my case on him?

Except that he didn't! Bussing=voting for your partner. Sparky never did that! He said he would be willing to do so, but never, ever did! Which is exactly how I would expect scum to act when their partner gets targeted day1. 1. they don't want their partner lynched, so they don't vote for him because their vote gets them one vote closer. 2. but if their partner does get lynched, they want to look townie in the process, so they say they would be willing!

And look at when sparky started talking about Kooshie. At 4 votes, right when the wagon started picking up steam. Exactly when scum has to start talking about their partner so it doesn't become apparent that they are trying to hide something!

Don't give him town credit that he doesn't deserve. and again xeiron, thanks for the derphammer man, because right now we could have used that information that you stole from town... GAH!

Okay, to me bussing=contrbuting to the lynch of your partner. Like, driving a case on him all day with a fake cop result would be the ultimate bus, what Arche (supposedly) did to Kooshie was a very mild version. Still, I think it's very different from you not mentioning him at all or mcmc outright defending him.

I mean I'm not saying Archetype is absolved from responsibility of being off-wagon, but I think his off-wagonness was not the worst kind of off-wagonness. Definitely think he is a fine lynch though.

[yuma]

One more thing that has occurred to me, that I would like answered based off something eevee said, "Scum can't afford to lose another partner day2."

If I am scum, who is my partners?

Because if it is true that scum can't afford to lose another player day2 then bussing day2 just isn't going to happen! I mean, being down 2 players in 2 days, game over scum I think.

So who is my partner. It can't be anyone I voted in yesterday? Or is that assuming too much? Yesterday I voted for Jimmm, mcmc, Insomniac, Archetype, ashersky, Ozle and mail-mi.

So that means my partners must be in the mix of raerae, lekkit, eevee and jorbles? If I am going to get lynched, I think analysis should be performed to see if any of those four qualify as my partners. Notice that three of them are the three currently voting for me in lekkit, eevee and jorbles! Do you think scum would want to buss hard day3 after just starting to get back in the game?

[yuma]

Okay, to me bussing=contrbuting to the lynch of your partner. Like, driving a case on him all day with a fake cop result would be the ultimate bus, what Arche (supposedly) did to Kooshie was a very mild version. Still, I think it's very different from you not mentioning him at all or mcmc outright defending him.

It is very different. I am just asking you to look at it from the eyes of scum. What is more likely that scum will just sit back and watch their partner get lynched w/o doing anything. Or would scum do something?

Again I reference MIII. We both sat back and did nothing as volt was lynched. After that it became obvious who the partners were in me and you. I was next, quickly followed by you. Our doing nothing cost us the game. I learned heavily from that experience and never, ever played scum that way again.

[Eevee]

Guys, yuma is winning me over. Again.

[yuma]

oh and sudgy... I forgot about him. But he also voted for me yesterday.

[ashersky]

If yuma were scum, I'd say Ozle or I would be his most probably partner, from the outside.

[yuma]

I can't vote for sudgy. You can bet on me placing a Vote: ashersky though. (I could be convinced to vote for anyone today other than mcmcsalot yuma, but prefer, Eevee/Jorbles/Ash/Sudgy)

Why can't you vote for sudgy?
[/quote]

we believe sudgy's key claim can be proven or disproven during the night tonight. Thus we isn't a great lynch for today, but if disproven could be a very good lynch tomorrow.

[Lekkit]

That is assuming anyone is close enough to a gold room to verify that. I see the point, though.