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[Kooshie]

Instead of voting for pat, should we just get a prod on pat

@liopoil, why FoS on me?  I explained my absence.  Thursdays are busy, and I had to leave earlier than I thought I would on Friday.  After that I was tired, grumpy, and ready to sleep, not post about a bajillion things.

[xeiron]

Let's have a look at some numbers:
Assuming no power roles and random lynch

Town win chance right now:  07.4%
Win chance if we lynch correct: 14.0%
Win chance if we mislynch: 05.2%
Win chance if no lynch: 12.2%
Win chance if no lynch then mislynch: 09.1%
Win chance if no lynch then mislynch then mislynch: 05.8% (still more than if we mislynch today)

[yuma]

Let's have a look at some numbers:
Assuming no power roles and random lynch

nice assumptions... too bad they don't work out here in the real world....

go ahead and vote no lynch. I won't be following you and I bet no one else will...

I suggest trying out some scum hunting rather than playing with numbers. But hey, maybe that is because I am not very good with numbers....

[xeiron]

Let's have a look at some numbers:
Assuming no power roles and random lynch

nice assumptions... too bad they don't work out here in the real world....

I know that the assumptions don't quite work out so the newt question is..
How will power roles alter these probabilities?

I think a cop favors the no-lynch(odd number) option as it means less chance of investigating town people.
A doctor favors lynching right from the start as a saved life then will bring us up to an odd number, "gaining us" the possibility to use another mislynch.
I am unsure about the Vigilate

[yuma]

I think the answer is that we aren't going to no lynch. So... what is the point?

[Kooshie]

Let's have a look at some numbers:
Assuming no power roles and random lynch

Town win chance right now:  07.4%
Win chance if we lynch correct: 14.0%
Win chance if we mislynch: 05.2%
Win chance if no lynch: 12.2%
Win chance if no lynch then mislynch: 09.1%
Win chance if no lynch then mislynch then mislynch: 05.8% (still more than if we mislynch today)

You took town deaths into account, right?

[liopoil]

I don't know why we shouldn't even consider nolynch... if it's good for town we should do it. But I'm not so sure that it is good for town. where do you get those numbers xeiron? I guess the whole idea is it doesn't lower our misslynch number...

[yuma]

I don't know why we shouldn't even consider nolynch... if it's good for town we should do it. But I'm not so sure that it is good for town. where do you get those numbers xeiron? I guess the whole idea is it doesn't lower our misslynch number...

consider whatever you want. I am just saying that I am not for in--having played in a game that experienced a no lynch and it was an experience I never want to repeat--and that these discussions almost always end up the same.... we talk and talk about for ages and then don't do it. So I ask... why not just skip the talking about it and jump straight to no do it... since that is where we always end up.

And once again, this goes along with my feelings from before. Every game people feel--or at least want to show that they feel this way for town cred--that they can find some way to give town a leg up. Because w/o that leg up town will lose the game. So they look and look for some way to gain an advantage when in all honesty any advantage that we find will in all actuallity probably go to scum. I guess it frustrated me because it seems that people think that town can't w/o without these shenanigans. But town can win, just by playing well and lynching scum. I have full confidence in town and think these shenanigands are more of a distraction and do more harm then any good.

[xeiron]

You took town deaths into account, right?

Yes, of course

I don't know why we shouldn't even consider nolynch... if it's good for town we should do it. But I'm not so sure that it is good for town. where do you get those numbers xeiron? I guess the whole idea is it doesn't lower our misslynch number...

the formulae is

              |                                1                           if m = 0
w(n,m) = |                                0                           if m >= n-m
              |  ((n - m )/n)*w(n-2, m) + (m/n)*w(n-2, m-1) elsewise
w = Town win probability
n = number of living players
m = number of living mafia

[Kooshie]

You took town deaths into account, right?

Yes, of course

I meant nks... but you did.

[liopoil]

so no lynch MIGHT be good today, but it probably won't happen like yuma says, AND it is likely a better idea to wait until MYLO to no-lynch, because then town will have better powers. Xeiron, your numbers do show why it is good to no lynch, but they don't take into account the chance of town winning when they wait to no lynch.

[xeiron]

Another question regarding lynch ws no lynch
Who will benefit most from wandering around in the bank?
There are more town players and if only one of us acquire something that can point out mafia we are in business. I am also inclined to think that items i general is more useful for town than for mafia.
Mafia, on the other hand, have more information and pillage makes it easier for them to afford expensive stuff earlier.
I am not sure what weights most. Do anybody have any thoughts.

Now if town benfits most, that would push probabilities in a direction favoring a no lynch
If it is the mafia, we should go lynching right away hoping to get them before they grows too strong.

Anyways, I think I have convinced myself enough to vote: no lynch

[liopoil]

Vote: Kooshie. I would vote patpatppat, but the thing is that if he doesn't start posting, he'll likely be replaced. if he does start posting, then he wouldn't be lurking anymore would he? Xeiron is posting content now, and Kooshie said she was busy and everything before, which is fine, but now she says she is all caught up and all she did was ask me to restate my case.

I would guess that town benefits more from walking around the bank, but I can't be sure of that because I don't know everything in the bank. Later in the game we will be more likely to know if wandering around the bank is better for town or scum. I think that later in the game no lynch will become much more powerful, and so we should wait. For instance, if we don't no lynch, then eventually we will get to mylo (unless we win quickly, in which case no lynch doesn't really matter). At mylo no lynch will very likely be the right move, and it will be quite useful because at that point we hopefully have lots of powers and could catch scum in the night. If no lynch isn't the right move at mylo then it probably isn't the right move here. So for now I think we should lynch until we get to mylo, then consider no lynching. No point discussing it further now (unless xeiron might be able to talk us into it, which seems unlikely)

[Kooshie]

Another question regarding lynch ws no lynch
Who will benefit most from wandering around in the bank?
There are more town players and if only one of us acquire something that can point out mafia we are in business. I am also inclined to think that items i general is more useful for town than for mafia.
Mafia, on the other hand, have more information and pillage makes it easier for them to afford expensive stuff earlier.
I am not sure what weights most. Do anybody have any thoughts.

Now if town benfits most, that would push probabilities in a direction favoring a no lynch
If it is the mafia, we should go lynching right away hoping to get them before they grows too strong.

Anyways, I think I have convinced myself enough to vote: no lynch

I don't think that town benefits more from waling around the bank because scum gets so much money from pillaging, and since they can see where there scum buddies are and can coordinate their moves, I think that the mafia get the better deal out of it.

[Kooshie]

Vote: Kooshie. I would vote patpatppat, but the thing is that if he doesn't start posting, he'll likely be replaced. if he does start posting, then he wouldn't be lurking anymore would he? Xeiron is posting content now, and Kooshie said she was busy and everything before, which is fine, but now she says she is all caught up and all she did was ask me to restate my case.

I would guess that town benefits more from walking around the bank, but I can't be sure of that because I don't know everything in the bank. Later in the game we will be more likely to know if wandering around the bank is better for town or scum. I think that later in the game no lynch will become much more powerful, and so we should wait. For instance, if we don't no lynch, then eventually we will get to mylo (unless we win quickly, in which case no lynch doesn't really matter). At mylo no lynch will very likely be the right move, and it will be quite useful because at that point we hopefully have lots of powers and could catch scum in the night. If no lynch isn't the right move at mylo then it probably isn't the right move here. So for now I think we should lynch until we get to mylo, then consider no lynching. No point discussing it further now (unless xeiron might be able to talk us into it, which seems unlikely)

Yeah, I really didn't do much but ask you for some hard logic, but mostly because everything I would have said has been said already.  If you want I'll go and post what I thought when I first read everything.

[ashersky]

Key claiming is redundant, since we will know its cheaper automatically when we enter a room.  No reason to claim buying it unless you are trying not to get lynched.


Getting on a plane in 30 mins, so VLA for at least 10 hours.

[sparky5856]

Not much to add right now, just got back from a tiring day at work.

If we don't have much to go for in terms of items right now, best thing to do is to just treat this like traditional mafia. Again, I still don't like claiming; yes unknown consequences could be good and not bad, yes we could take a risk. But all of this is unknown, and I don't feel like taking a risk.

[sparky5856]

Let's have a look at some numbers:
Assuming no power roles and random lynch

Town win chance right now:  07.4%
Win chance if we lynch correct: 14.0%
Win chance if we mislynch: 05.2%
Win chance if no lynch: 12.2%
Win chance if no lynch then mislynch: 09.1%
Win chance if no lynch then mislynch then mislynch: 05.8% (still more than if we mislynch today)

wut

Scum's chances of winning all games is 92%?
...Okay, random lynch. But what does this tell us exactly? We never random lynch, ever.

[Robz888]

I am currently seeking a replacement for Patpatppat.

[Robz888]

Raerae has replaed patpatppat.

[mcmcsalot]

Raerae has replaed patpatppat.

Sad that pats out, however...Raerae!!!!! Hello there, can't wait for your insight. Hopefully you do what I expect and ignore the ridicuous claim/non-claim arguments and start some good old fashion scum hunting. I suggest taking a look at yuma, kooshie, and mail-mi.

[raerae]

Hi, kids!  I'm getting caught up now.  Anybody voting for me for lurking can unvote now.  Thanks!

[Jimmmmm]

Vote: raerae for lurking.

[raerae]

Theory talk just kills my soul a little bit.  Yuck.

I am not prepared to make a big old posty post about things thus far but lio is fo sho on my look at closely list.  He seems to have ideas on ideas in his back pocket just ready to throw at town to see if we'll bite and, frankly, none of the ideas put town in a stellar position.  I don't like it but this was just on a quick read.

I will not random lynch or no lynch.  Will. Not.  I don't play mafia to not scumhunt.  I will put my vote on the person I find scummiest and that is exactly where I will leave it even if I'm the only one there. 

I noticed there was a bit of conversation about a soft deadline...has that been set yet?  Is that something we're seriously interested in?  I support that idea.

[raerae]

Vote: raerae for lurking.

Don't even tempt me, buddy!