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[popsofctown]

Everytime you use physics and it fails, it is less likely to succeed the next time you use it.  EVERY TIME.

Because you have removed two cards of the same color from possibility of being on top, so the other four colors are biased now. 

That is all

[timchen]

Actually the chance does not change all that much:

initial chance to succeed/whiff: 80/120 and 40/120

chance after you whiffed: 20/35 and 15/35

The success rate drops from 67% to 57%.

One thing I am quite amused is that (in my perception) Alchemy is much less likely to whiff... but the chance (if you draw 2 cards) is almost the same. This is probably the effect you are talking about. For alchemy (drawing 2)

initial 56/90~62%
whiffed (seeing 1 red) 3/4=75%

[DG]

Of course you are applying normal logic to this. The real rule is that when you share it with someone they always get the bonus, so with different colored cards taken out the deck you have a better chance but still always fail.

[popsofctown]

67% to 57% is a substantial drop.  And the next whiff makes it even worse.

[timchen]

How so? you only see the difference once per ten times you play.

[popsofctown]

I think it is important to be aware of that probability drop because you quite often have dogmas on the board that are competing with Physics.  67%*three cards is expected return of 2 cards, to grossly oversimplify the benefit of the first physics.  57%*3 is about 1.77 cards.  1/3rd of a card is a pretty big hit that makes it a lot easier for other available dogmas to overtake it as the best choice.  For instance, in a situation where age matters little, Calendar and Wheel with 5's and below missing can overtake the dogma now, and you should consider switching.  Usually it's more apples and oranges than that though.

I also think you should think about it in terms of geometric loss rather than a flat 10% loss.  The second play -accomplishes- 15% less than the first play.


But more importantly, it's not the second play of physics that really concerns me it's the third one.  The third physics after 2 fails has pretty rough odds of success.  But I see people playing physics three times in a row even when they have other powerful dogmas available

[popsofctown]

I'm not arguing, omg, physics twice in a row, always terrible play.  I'm just saying that I think I notice a pattern of people being totally unaware of the dependent nature of the drawings, they are playing it as if the cards were shuffled every time.  It's something you should at least consider.

[popsofctown]

I am triple posting about minor innovation strategy because innovation.isotropic.org is down

[rrenaud]

All the analysis ignores that you often can see/know that some cards are gone, and further, that if some cards have been returned (eg, due to physics), you can also rule out that they'd be the next to be drawn.

[timchen]

The percentages certainly include knowing the cards from previous physics play. .. otherwise the chance won't change.

And for the third try, if you see the first 2 containing 3 colors only, then just don't bother.

However, if that is not the case, then you still have 50% chance to succeed. Not that great in practice, but a similar drop in percentages on paper.

In any case I rarely feel like dogmaing it. Probably drawing 2 in middle ages is not that efficient.