Day2 yuma:mcmc
First post of the day:
But I have a kind of a hard time finding scum there... Jimmmm to an extent, along with mcmc--both were kinda pseudo-on the wagon or at least expressed willingness to be on the wagon. Dsell-no, me-no. theorel is just hard to read, no? Eevee I want to read as town.
so... galz was scum right....? I am thinking doing a reread on him might clue us into potential scum partners. Now, I have been scum with galz before (ZM1)--and I think that others who have been scum with galz should add their own bit as well--but one thing I remember about him, and I think I shared this in another game, was that Galz is fully ready and willing to buss as mafia. He said to me in the quicktopic that we shared that he is unlikely to chainsaw or defend a scummate. I don't know if he would be willing to start cases on players, but he might...
So what I am looking for are people that came under a bit of heat and to which, Galz did not defend, but instead added to the flames.
- From this I doubt that Eevee is Galz's partner. He was pretty adamant in his defense all game long. Like really, really adamant.
- He has an interesting post about lurkers... January 09, 2013, 1:54:03 am. Here he basically says that outside of lio--who he has no basis of comparison for--everyone is posting about the same that he would expect. Now, since we know Galz was scum my bet is that he would have potentially turned on a partner and brought heat against them if that player was lurking. So I am leaning toward thinking that the lurkers at that point, theo, themunch, glooble, dsell aren't his partners.
- his big post is also a bit telling January 10, 2013, 10:08:34 am. here he analyzes cuzz, jimmm, shraeye and mcmc. He has a townie read on mcmc, slight town read, but could lynch read on shraeye, slight scum read off Jimmmm, and voted Cuzz.
- He does however, later express a willingness to lynch Glooble, but doesn't change his vote.
- From this list provided by Cuzz (Here's something to chat about. My wagon is Galz, Munch, shraeye, Glooble, liopoil, raerae and ash.), galz says he only has a town read of raerae...
- and his last post is an FOS at the people that were on the shraeye wagon and me for starting it.
so in summary:
1. ashersky - scum read from the shraeye wagon FOS and the Cuzz wagon
2. Robz - really not mentioned at all, reads wise, but has a constant conversation with him, but was on the shraeye wagon FOS
3. yuma - only read me via the shraeye wagon FOS at the end.
4. Eevee - strong town read all game, but was on the shraeye wagon FOS
5. Shraeye - slight town read, but could lynch
7. Glooble - doesn't think scummy for lurking, but would be willing to lynch
9. liopoil - scummy because on the cuzz wagon
10. mcmcsalot - town read
11. Jimmmmm - slight scum read and was on the shraeye wagon FOS
12. theorel - not much of anything about theorel, not scummy because of lurking
13. TheMunch - scummy because on the Cuzz wagon
14. Dsell - not much about Dsell, but not scummy because of lurking.
So if I had only this to go off, I would be most interested in voting Jimmm or Glooble or possibly shraeye. From this alone I wouldn't lynch Eevee, Dsell, mcmc or theorel. But thankfully, this isn't all I have to go off.
lio here I think you misunderstood something. I am not saying that I have a town read on mcmc, but rather that Galz did. Now I will admit that I was thrown off by Galz's townread on mcmc. Because in previous games that isn't how galz played... but I was able to pinpoint galz's four players and found it highly likely that a partner was in one of those four see below:
I am much more comfortable in thinking that there is scum within the three of mcmc/Jimmm/shraeye then I am in thinking that there is scum in raerae/shraeye/munch. Galz's trio actually has something of substance to base it off. It isn't surefire, but it is a lot better than raerae/shraeye/munch... But again has the same danger... For example: say if we lynch mcmc and say town!Jimmmm dies in the night that doesn't guarantee shraeye is scum... and could easily result in 2 mislynches before we finally realize that there wasn't scum in the mix... But I do think it is a better bet than heading down the other route.
I think right now I am leaning toward an mcmc vote or a glooble vote... Although I first want to have glooble answer some outstanding questions and I am curious about Robz's extra information that he is withholding... {Arrested Development reference in my head, let's see if I can find it... I did! }
Here I start toward a mcmc lynch being possible... what happened before that from other players?
the following are quotes from other players...
lio said:
I now have a townread on every player in this game except galzria and mcmcsalot. galz is dead, so Vote: Mcmcsalot. The rest of you have done pretty darn well coming across as on the good guy's side.
The biggest reason for this is that he said he would hammer but didn't. It's a good way to not take a side, and to not really be under scrutiny regardless of how cuzz flipped. Sure, if cuzz flipped scum people would say, "oh look, mcmc was off-wagon, but I guess he was going to hammer, and he didn't oppose the lynch... and oh look eevee REALLY didn't want to lynch him!" It seems overly cautious. Scum need to be more cautious than town, so excessive carefulness is scummy.
the munch said:
So I opened today with 2 reads: Ashersky's odd end of the day play, and mcmc's "I'll hammer" then goes off the radar.
Obviously I've talked about Ashersky ad nauseum and I nearly completely forgot about my mcmc thing. I remember why I forgot. Mcmc responded pretty shortly thereafter and I didn't like his response, but didn't really have anything solid to debate regarding it without doing some rereading so I thought "eh, I'll get back to it" then I never did. Whoops.
So I reread the end of the day with mcmc's defense in mind (it was basically "I wanted people to answer cuzz's question and by the time I came back he was dead"). I can see that this is what mcmc wants to say he was doing but on reread it felt very hollow. He made the post that he wanted to wait for people to answer cuzz's question. Called out Raerae once, and then said "oh people have said a bunch, I guess Cuzz isn't dead yet, I'm going to sleep." There is nothing inherently wrong about going to sleep or sleeping through deadline but I dont like the juxtaposition of all of:
- Vocally stating intent to hammer
- Waiting for responses to Cuzz's question
- Not actually pushing very hard that that was what he was waiting for
- His last post of the day that acknowledges the possibility that Cuzz could have died while he was gone while leaving unceremoniously.
This all gives a ton of "I want to look like I would have voted for Cuzz" While not actually caring one way or another if Cuzz got lynched.
Yuma also commented on Mcmc in 1513. I think Ashersky has been quite scummy, and would be more than happy if he got lynched but I do not like the way that mcmc threw his vote down. "Oh I guess I used to have scum reads on him". It feels like one of the scummier votes I've seen in a while. I think all this is scummy enough on re-inspection that I am comfortable changing my vote. Vote: Mcmc
my posts now:
let's start with mcmc:
mcmc is active in the Jimmm/eevee situation early on. He started off thinking eevee was scummy... but then turned Jimmm into his top scumread, (not voting for either)... I pointed this out and still find it to be a contradiction in that mcmc followed Jimmm's case on eevee and read eevee as scum because of it... but then ended up with a scum read on Jimmm because he "pushed the case on eevee too hard" but he still had a scum read on eevee??
Mcmc then votes ashersky. He does this when he decides to go through person by person, the first person is ash, who he votes primarily for ash's push on raerae. He maintains it for a while, while he analyzes other players such as Robz, me and eevee... but eventually he abandons it because it was an ancient read from a long time ago.
In two posts pretty close together he offers that glooble has done nothing that he found scummy, but then expresses that he would be ok with it, but would want to hear more.
Finally, after posts and posts about how he found Jimmm scummy there is finally a vote: largely due to shraeye's case on him. In the same post he expresses a slight scum read on Cuzz... but doesn't say anythign else about him until Cuzz is at L-1 (where he unvotes Jimmmm) and thinks Cuzz should claim, but says that he would be willing to lynch Cuzz. Another weird thing is that he says he has been "tunneling" Jimmmm.... but he had only been voting for him for 2 posts.... hmmm
Mcmc detaches himself from "the cases" made on Cuzz, but instead says that he finds him scummy because of his reaction. Announces intent to hammer, then 2 posts to raerae and then goes to bed...
Day 2:
So I just glossed through most of day 2 and there were posts, but I struggled to find anything to comment on... this is suspicious to me, a change in posting behavior from the previous day. At least I think it is a change in posting behavior. Let me go through them all to see if they lack the substance as much as I think...
- theory talk
- talking with ash about raerae's death
- answering themunch about the intent to hammer
- theory talk with theorel
- calls out Jimmmm
- comment on shraeye/munch/ash, has a town read on theorel
- theory talk
- theory talk
- theory talk
- theory talk
- explains scummy read on ash
- theory talk
- questioning Jimmmm
- votes ash for his "constant responses"
- would not have been supportive of the shraeye quick wagon
- disagrees with munch's case on him
- explains "constant responses" to me...
So there was more substance there once I went through it fully. I guess my major beef with mcmc are as follows:
1. his contradiction in finding jimmmm's case on eevee scummy but still finding eevee scummy
2. his no read on Glooble, shortly followed by his willingness to lynch glooble
3. his self proclaiming that he was "tunneling" Jimmmm when in fact it was only a vote for two posts...
4. a slight change in posting behavior from the day prior... at least I think it was a slight change. The just seems like less content. I have had this theory before that it is easier to be scum day1, but as the days progress it becomes harder and harder to find things to talk about... see ftl in Robz's giant game for an example--and that was before ftl lost interest--I am talking about day2 and 3, where I called him out on it and he ended up being scum. This is similar to me.
5. his read on ash and his vote on ash. Perhaps part of that is that he hasn't played with ash as much, but... in conversation's about other players he hasn't played as much before mcmc has made a point of "deferring to the elders" about their playstyle... He did so on Glooble, Dsell and someone else... I am kinda curious that he didn't do so in this situation, especially when some of us are offering up opinions on ash.
6. there is very little to no talking about Galzria in his posts... at least nothing stood out. I need to go back and check my analysis of Galz to say what he said about mcmc... (yes, I know mcmc could be scum not aligned with Galz, but I think it is stupid to not try and find galz's partners) and galz expressed a full out town read on mcmc...! If mcmc is scum partners with Galz this would fly in direct contradiction to what I would expect from Galz to do. Hmmmm.
I then do a post on Glooble... and end up voting mcmc! not glooble!
Jimmmm then immediately voted mcmc the next post. At this point mcmc has votes on him by themunch, lio, yuma and jimmmm and is at L-3.
Like you said, mcmc responds to my posts and I respond back, but my vote doesn't leave!
I then do a reread on lio and decide that mcmc is till scummier than mcmc. That is two players (glooble and lio) that I have reread and found less scummy than mcmc. If I were to not want mcmc lynched, those rereads would be the ideal time to jump ship!
ash then puts mcmc at L-2. At this point it really looks like mcmc will be lynched and Robz appears to think that it is inevitable because he comes out with his extremely convenient save of his partner.
Robz then saves his partner and his wagon dissolves.
So again I repeat that toward then end of day2, mcmc was my obvious choice for a lynch. the other two options in lio and glooble that I give I had used up and placed mcmc higher on my lynch wagon list. If I didn't want mcmc lynched as scum I would have abandoned the lynch during one of those rereads.
If I didn't want mcmc lynched like you said, when else would I have left the wagon? Maybe wait til he is at L-1 and then jump off? That would be obvious yes?
So I didn't leave the mcmc wagon when I could as scum... Why? Because I wanted him lynched. Why? Because I thought he was scum and I was scum hunting damn it! Maybe you don't know this, but I am actually pretty good at scum hunting. I have one of the higher accurate lynch % out there and to be lynched and lose the game for doing good scum hunting is extremely aggravating.