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[yuma]

so I guess I am at the point where I need to start making decisions....

If the remaining scum is MU I know it is Robz. Because it can't be me, it can't be Jimmm, it can't be lio. And the evidence does point solidly toward Robz. I would put it at 100/0 toward Robz.

If the remaining scum is Marquis it is either Jimmm or Robz. At this point I am still thinking that Robz is unlikely because of his tracker claim (although did we decide that he could have known mcmc didn't use an action because he blocked him? That would make Robz at least a 2-shot RB/JK, which kinda makes sense since MU had Rolecop with unlimited shots..., but still is kinda a risky venture for a scum player to do)... Jimmm fits the bill pretty well in regard to his interactions with Glooble and Themunch, and I think his ability, especially the 1-shot "cop" addition could actually be because scum was underpowered this game? So I think Jimmm is more likely to be scum if the remaining scum is Marquis. I would put it at 70/30 toward Jimmmm

So then the question is whether or not we have a MU or a Marquis. There are two points for there being a Marquis in the arrangement of the PRs and in the killing of the Marquis cop tonight. There is one point for there being a MU because of the 1 NK of the MU cop Night4. So I would put this at 70/30 in favor of Marquis.

I dont' know if this is the best way to do this, but multiply those results and add them up and we have:

100*30=Robz as MU (3300)
0*30=Jimmm as Mu (0)
70*70=Jimmm as Marquis (4900)
30*70=Robz as Marquis (2100)

Jimmm = 4900; Robz = 5400. So at least this way Robz is most likely to be scum... although that is just using semi-random numbers to reflect how I feel about things and isn't statistical at all. You can all basically ignore the math... I am ignoring it, but needed to do it just to get my thoughts and ideas out there and this was one of them, that didn't turn out to be as useful as I had imagined.

Man, I don't know. Lio what do you think?

[Robz888]

I'm cautiously leaning toward Jimm.

I really think it's a maquis, because shooting ash only makes sense for a maquis. The missing nightkill--I can't come up with an explanaytion, but that doesn't mean there isn't one. Killing ash though... that's just the wrong move for an MU. You kill liopoil or Jimm, if you're MU, because they can't be MU.

So... ultimately, Jimm fits the mold for the last maquis much better than yuma.

[Robz888]

I don't really debate your numbers, yuma. If you think there's any chance the last scum is MU, you have to think it's me.

And of course if I were scum I would be trying to persuade you that the ash kill makes no sense for an MU.

But... that doesn't change the fact that it doesn't. Do you remember how strongly ash supported me? How constantly he mentioned my towniness? His town read on me didn't deviate all game. I'm not saying that you should accept his opinion; I'm saying that strategically, killing him and leaving liopoil was a game-losing move for me as scum. I mean really, if you think there's any chance of MU, and you split the difference, you have to think it's me, lio has always suspected me, and Jimm (who I think is actually the last scum) will of course go for me. So I'm pretty screwed here. So you have to believe I was willing to put myself in this fairly screwed position, rather than likely easily winning by just killing lio/jimm and having me and ash and whoever lynch you today.

I would also again bring up the roles. Bomb is a great role for a scum team that is down a member to begin with.

So while I understand you thinking I'm more scummy if you count the existence of MU, I think you should discount that possibility, for the reaosns I mentione.d

My re-read of Jimm has made me a lot more confident that he could be on the same team as Glooble/Munch. It's fairly convincing, I think.

[liopoil]

Okay, I'm back. newbie mafia still is in day, but whatever. I've changed my mind and decided to consider jimmmmm just as much as the other two of you. I thought robz and yuma had townreads on him and were only going to vote for each other for some reason. anyway, I'm going to respond your all the big posts shortly.

[yuma]

But... that doesn't change the fact that it doesn't. Do you remember how strongly ash supported me? How constantly he mentioned my towniness? His town read on me didn't deviate all game. I'm not saying that you should accept his opinion; I'm saying that strategically, killing him and leaving liopoil was a game-losing move for me as scum. I mean really, if you think there's any chance of MU, and you split the difference, you have to think it's me, lio has always suspected me, and Jimm (who I think is actually the last scum) will of course go for me. So I'm pretty screwed here. So you have to believe I was willing to put myself in this fairly screwed position, rather than likely easily winning by just killing lio/jimm and having me and ash and whoever lynch you today.

I do see that and I have tried to take that into consideration, but I still maintain that it is a terribly risky move for scum to not NK their cop just on the chance that scum is investigated. I mean yes I see not killing lio is bad for you if you are scum... but it is far worse for you as scum if ash were to investigate you (as unlikely as it was) and live to tell about it... But you do make sense and I see your points.

[Robz888]

But... that doesn't change the fact that it doesn't. Do you remember how strongly ash supported me? How constantly he mentioned my towniness? His town read on me didn't deviate all game. I'm not saying that you should accept his opinion; I'm saying that strategically, killing him and leaving liopoil was a game-losing move for me as scum. I mean really, if you think there's any chance of MU, and you split the difference, you have to think it's me, lio has always suspected me, and Jimm (who I think is actually the last scum) will of course go for me. So I'm pretty screwed here. So you have to believe I was willing to put myself in this fairly screwed position, rather than likely easily winning by just killing lio/jimm and having me and ash and whoever lynch you today.

I do see that and I have tried to take that into consideration, but I still maintain that it is a terribly risky move for scum to not NK their cop just on the chance that scum is investigated. I mean yes I see not killing lio is bad for you if you are scum... but it is far worse for you as scum if ash were to investigate you (as unlikely as it was) and live to tell about it... But you do make sense and I see your points.

Oh, okay, yes I agree with you that if I am maquis, I might have shot ashersky anyway (although there was just such low likelihood of him investigating me). That would have been a tough call. All I am saying is that as MU, I certainly would not have shot ashersky. But, ashersky was shot, therefore, I'm not MU. Now, you can look at the case of me being maquis, and would I shoot ashersky, of coruse there's an argument there both ways. I just think the evidence against Jimm is better than the evidence against you (or me obviously) to be maquis.

[yuma]

But... that doesn't change the fact that it doesn't. Do you remember how strongly ash supported me? How constantly he mentioned my towniness? His town read on me didn't deviate all game. I'm not saying that you should accept his opinion; I'm saying that strategically, killing him and leaving liopoil was a game-losing move for me as scum. I mean really, if you think there's any chance of MU, and you split the difference, you have to think it's me, lio has always suspected me, and Jimm (who I think is actually the last scum) will of course go for me. So I'm pretty screwed here. So you have to believe I was willing to put myself in this fairly screwed position, rather than likely easily winning by just killing lio/jimm and having me and ash and whoever lynch you today.

I do see that and I have tried to take that into consideration, but I still maintain that it is a terribly risky move for scum to not NK their cop just on the chance that scum is investigated. I mean yes I see not killing lio is bad for you if you are scum... but it is far worse for you as scum if ash were to investigate you (as unlikely as it was) and live to tell about it... But you do make sense and I see your points.

Oh, okay, yes I agree with you that if I am maquis, I might have shot ashersky anyway (although there was just such low likelihood of him investigating me). That would have been a tough call. All I am saying is that as MU, I certainly would not have shot ashersky. But, ashersky was shot, therefore, I'm not MU. Now, you can look at the case of me being maquis, and would I shoot ashersky, of coruse there's an argument there both ways. I just think the evidence against Jimm is better than the evidence against you (or me obviously) to be maquis.

Yes I think I agree with that.

[liopoil]

Oh, okay, yes I agree with you that if I am maquis, I might have shot ashersky anyway

Implies that he isn't maquis but did shoot ash. Scum slip that robz is MU?

just wanted to mention that. Working on bigger stuffs now.

[Robz888]

Oh, okay, yes I agree with you that if I am maquis, I might have shot ashersky anyway

Implies that he isn't maquis but did shoot ash. Scum slip that robz is MU?

just wanted to mention that. Working on bigger stuffs now.

Not a scumslip. Here "anyway" means "even though he was a big supporter of mine."

[liopoil]

100*30=Robz as MU (3300)
0*30=Jimmm as Mu (0)
70*70=Jimmm as Marquis (4900)
30*70=Robz as Marquis (2100)

Jimmm = 4900; Robz = 5400. So at least this way Robz is most likely to be scum... although that is just using semi-random numbers to reflect how I feel about things and isn't statistical at all. You can all basically ignore the math... I am ignoring it, but needed to do it just to get my thoughts and ideas out there and this was one of them, that didn't turn out to be as useful as I had imagined.

Man, I don't know. Lio what do you think?

I don't think this is correct. Let's just figure out the chance of Jimmm being scum based on those estimated numbers. (and we assume Yuma is town)

for Jimmmm to be scum there must both be a maquis, and Jimmmmm is this maquis. You say that there is a 7/10 chance of both. 7/10 times 7/10= 49/100. That leaves 51/100 for robz. So it doesn't mean anything.

[liopoil]

wait, actually your math is right. You just multiplied 30 by 100 and got 3300 . So otherwise it's fine.

[liopoil]

Anyone want to do a post count? It hardly matters but why not? I can't because when I Ctrl-F "isotropic username: name of player" it just says "more than 100 results" and won't tell me exactly how many.

[yuma]

Anyone want to do a post count? It hardly matters but why not? I can't because when I Ctrl-F "isotropic username: name of player" it just says "more than 100 results" and won't tell me exactly how many.

sure

hitting the print button to the side helps more

Robz 397
yuma 222
lio 198
Jimmm 258

[liopoil]

PLAYER LIST:

dead:                                                                                       When they died

Cuzz Station Changeling Cop Dr. Julian Bashir     D1
Raerae Station Neighbor Quark       N1
Galzria Mirror Universe Rolecop Constable Odo  N1
Eevee Station 1-shot Vigilante Major Kira Nerys  D2
Shraeye Station Innocent Child Jake Sisko          N2
Glooble Maquis 1-shot Roleblocker Captain Benjamin Sisko D3
TheMunch Maquis Neighbor Nog  N3
Dsell Station 1-shot Deathproof Lt. Ezri Dax  D4
theorel Station Mirror Universe Cop Chief Miles O'Brien N4
mcmcsalot [/s]Mirror Universe Bomb General Martok  D5
ashersky Station Maquis Cop Lt. Cmmdr. Worf    N5

Alive:  #of posts

Robz:         397
Jimmmmm: 258
Yuma: 222
Liopoil: Station neighbor Rom 198

[liopoil]

The following is a summary of all the confirmed actions that have been taken and when they were taken. This includes all lynches, night actions, and claims. If forget when all the cop things happened, so I'll just say them all at the end.

D1

Cuzz claims
Cuzz lynched

N1

Maquis kill galzria
MU kill raerae

D2

robz claims
robz claims negative tracker result on mcmc.
eevee lynched

N2

Maquis kill shraeye
MU kill shraeye

D3

Mcmc claims
glooble lynched

N3

Maquis attempts to kill Dsell
Dsell one-shot deathproof used up
MU kills munch

D4

Theorel partclaims
Theorel claims negative result on liopoil and Jimmmmm
Ashersky partclaims
Ashersky claims negative result on theorel
Liopoil claims
Liopoil claims lots of things were said in his neighborhood QT
Theorel fullclaims
Ashersky fullclaims
Yuma claims
Dsell claims
Jimmmmm partclaims
Dsell lynched

N4

Scum kills theorel
Ashersky investigates liopoil

D5

Yuma claims to have attempted LR N4
Ashersky claims negative result on liopoil
Mcmcsalot lynched

N5

Scum kills ashersky

D6

Jimmmmm fullclaims



(munch/glooble/???) Maquis kills: Galzria, Shraeye, Dsell
(Galzria/mcmcsalot/???) MU kills: Raerae, Shraeye, Munch
???Kills: theorel, ashersky

(theorel) MU investigations: Jimmmmm, liopoil (negative)
(Ashersky) Maquis investigations: liopoil, theorel (negative)
(cuzz) SK investigations: none

claimed, unverified actions:

Jimmmm saved theorel N1
Robz tracked mcmc N1, got negative result
Yuma tried to LR N4

unverified claims:

Jimmmmm: 1-shot doc, Beloved princess
Yuma: 1-shot lighting rod
Robz: 1-shot tracker

[liopoil]

The five wagons:

mcmcsalot has been lynched. He was General Martok, the Mirror Universe-aligned Bomb.

yuma (2): ashersky, mcmcsalot
mcmcsalot (4): Jimmmmm, liopoil, yuma, Robz

Not Voting: no one!

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Dsell has been lynched. He was Ezri Dax, the station-aligned 1-shot deathproof.

Vote Count 4.3

liopoil (1): Dsell
Dsell (5): ashersky, yuma, theorel, Robz888, mcmcsalot

Not Voting (2): Jimmmmm, liopoil

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Glooble has been lynched. He was Benjamin Sisko, the Maquis-aligned 1-shot Roleblocker.

Vote Count 3.3

Glooble (6): ashersky, theorel, yuma, liopoil, Robz888, Dsell {lynched}
Robz888 (1): TheMunch
liopoil (3): Jimmmmm, mcmcsalot, glooble

Not Voting (0):

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Eevee has been lynched. He was Major Kira Nerys, the Station-aligned 1-shot Vigilante.

Vote Count 2.10

shraeye (2): theorel, Jimmmmm
Liopoil (3): Eevee, glooble, mcmcsalot
Eevee (7): ashersky, shraeye, TheMunch, liopoil, yuma, mcmcsalot, Robz888

Not voting (1):  Dsell

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Vote Count 1.16

Cuzz (8): Galzria, TheMunch, shraeye, Glooble, liopoil, raerae, Robz888, ashersky
Jimmmmm (1): mcmcsalot
shraeye (4): Jimmmmm, Eevee, yuma, Cuzz


Not Voting (2): Dsell, theorel

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Cuzz has been lynched. He was Dr. Julian Bashir, Station-Aligned Changeling Cop.

If you take out dead players it's:

mcmc: Jimmmmm, liopoil, yuma, Robz.
Dsell: Yuma, robz
Glooble: Yuma, liopoil, robz
Eevee: liopoil, Yuma, robz
Cuzz: liopoil, robz

the names are listed in order of getting on the wagon. Jimmmmm is only on one while robz is on all of them, and he is last for all of them.

[liopoil]

Yuma is in 4/5, as am I. Robz hammers twice and is second to last three times. Twice him and mcmc are the last two, both times on townies.

[yuma]

I am not sure exactly what you are getting at with this, but I should point out that if you are going by end of day vote counts, I am pretty sure that a few of them aren't in order... I can't remember which ones, but I remember that at least one was a while ago. Not sure if that is a big deal, but if it is I felt I should point it out.

[liopoil]

I was going from the flip posts. they are in reverse order, D5-D1. It's for reference later. There's lots of juicy things to analyze in there!

[yuma]

No I mean joth's flip posts... sometimes the vote count was out of order... I'll see if I can find the example that I remember.

[liopoil]

oh I understand now.

[yuma]

Cuzz voters: galz, robz, eevee, themunch, galz, robz, shray, shray, glooble, lio, ash, raerae, ash, robz, ash
So it looks like the order should be:  themunch, galz, shraeye, glooble, lio, raerae, robz, ash
joths: Galzria, TheMunch, shraeye, Glooble, liopoil, raerae, Robz888, ashersky
so just themunch/Galz were flipped... no big deal
Eevee voters: ash, shraeye, themunch, lio, yuma, mcmc, robz
Eevee (7): ashersky, shraeye, TheMunch, liopoil, yuma, mcmcsalot, Robz888
Good here
Glooble voters: ash, yuma, theorel, mcmc, yuma, lio, robz, dsell
Glooble (6): ashersky, theorel, yuma, liopoil, Robz888, Dsell
Good here as well...
Dsell voters: yuma, lio, ashersky, yuma, theorel, robz, mcmc
Dsell (5): ashersky, yuma, theorel, Robz888, mcmcsalot
also good.

Well I guess the only mistake was with the day1 lynch with galz and themunch and isn't a big deal...

[liopoil]

Robz, Yuma, and mcmc voted Dsell three posts in a row, in that order. Yuma had already voted Dsell earlier, and was just now going back to voting Dsell.

[liopoil]

Going to go re-read you three now.

[yuma]

Going to go re-read you three now.

Ok, I am very interested in what you have to say. I think I will likely be voting once you are finished.