Robz:
So I think my main concern with Robz at this point is that he is the only player to have seriously deflected away from known scum in mcmc on Day2. This is something that is very hard to overlook.
Okay, I do think the Mcmc lynch is a mistake. I am a 1-shot Tracker. Last night, I tracked mcmcsalot. He took no action. I think this makes him significantly less likely to be scum, given what we know already.
FWIW, I have some (disastrous) experience as a Tracker (in M-XII, where I epic fail at it), but I still think my psychology for picking who to track was pretty much on in that game, so I stuck with it. I don't want to track the obvious people, because the obvious people aren't going to kill anyone (because they expect the tracker to be watching them). This is mafia 101, even in games without a tracker for some reason the less suspicious partner does the kill (Galz always did the kill in M-II; I was more suspicious, even though it didn't matter). So I was not going to track the people who came under heavy suspicion yesterday, which includes shraeye, Jimm, and Eevee basically. I was never going to track Galzria because he's just too obvious a person anyway, and there's always that likelihood he gets nightkilled just for being Galzria--which I bet is what happened here; I doubt a scum faction really thought they were shooting scum in Galz. So I wanted to pick someone who I thought could be scum, but who didn't know that I thought they could be scum. Like, Glooble and Dsell I really didn't think were scum, so I wasn't picking them. Also, just from what I know about my brother, he's like a really gung-ho guy (he posted his phone number in blitz whatever for goodness sake, so people could tell him when the lynch was happening), and it seemed reasonable if he was on a scumfaction he'd be likely to be the one taking the shot, just because he wanted to, in addition to everything else.
Well, he didn't do anything. I've thought about this a lot; this means he's probably not scum, right? If he were scum, and he were on Galzria's team, well, Galz is the rolecop, and it's pretty likely Galz can't take the shot AND rolecop someone, so unless it's a three person team, Mcmc takes the shot there. If Mcmc were SK, he has to take the shot. Of course there's a perfectly plausible scenario where Mcmc is on some other team, and for whatever reason was not the person who took the shot.
But anyway, I think we'd have to be PRETTY SURE to lynch him, since mathematically it seems to me like his odds of scum are much, much lower, right? I wouldn't bring this up if I thought it was a slamdunk case, but it's not a slamdunk case and from where I am standing it is the least likely lynch to hit scum.
here is the post that he made. At this point mcmc was at L-2. And what Robz is basically saying is that mcmc is less likely to be scum because 1. he didn't target anyone that night and 2. because Galz (if that is his partner, which it ended up being) wouldn't have performed the night kill because galz would have used the rolecop.
So the question here then is this:
If Galz didn't perform the Night Kill. Who did? Mcmc? Robz says that is impossible because he was tracked. Another member of the MU scum team? Robz? We know someone did it. Now I have made the argument before that it is possible that scum could use a power and NK on the same night... but I made that argument primarily based on the idea that scum typically can do both if they are the only remaining player alive... but this was night1 and both Galz and mcmc were still alive. even Robz thinks it rather unlikely....
Now there is the question of why would Robz do this? Or rather why would MU!Robz do this... pretend to be a tracker to save his teammate. I think the answer is potentially clear. He was panicked. One partner had already died in the night, the next was at L-2. He had to do something that would save his partner and also give himself some town credibility. The tracker claim worked beautifully. It really did! Mcmc was off the hook for basically the rest of the game until yesterday. Robz was also absent of some very major pressure.
Add in this as well as that very early into this day, Robz attempt to force the idea that there has to be a marquis scum team alive because ash was lynched--albeit this was in response to lio. Here is the quote:
Liopoil, you're not thinking this through. If scum thought there was any chance Jimm still had a shot, scum would have shot Jimm. Whoever he is, he couldn't afford a no-kill night.
But what he really couldn't afford was ash surviving and investigating. He has a one third chance of ash investigating him. And even if ash investigated one of the two others, it narrows down ash's guessing to 50%. Not shooting ash is just like way too dangerous for a maquis.
Now, for an MU, shooting ash is the WRONG call, because ash could be an MU! You want to leave as many possible MUs alive, and ash was never cleared of this. So you want to shoot either liopoil, the IC, or Jimm, who cannot actually be an MU (he was cleared by theorel). If you're really afraid of Jimm doctoring, just shoot Jimm. He can't doctor himself.
Shooting ash is the strictly best move for maquis. Really, it's the necessary move for maquis.
Shooting jimm or liopoil is the strictly best move for MU. Shooting ash doesn't necessarily hurt you though, I guess. But it limits the number of suspects for the town to decide between.
Here Robz attempts to explain that a MU wouldn't shoot ash because ash has the potential to be an MU. It is a decent argument. But... there is one thing. It is the perfect argument for Robz as MU to be making. Look at these sequences of events.
1. Mcmc flips as MU. Once this happens, Robz knows that he is going to get it hard in regard to his interaction with mcmc. See my above texts for an example of this.
2. Because of this Robz needs to find a way to avoid this suspicion as being fingered as the last remaining MU.
3. A good way of avoiding this is to make it look like there is no longer a MU scum team, but rather a Marquis one.
4. The best way to do this is to NK the Marquis cop!
5. Then very early in the day plant the idea in our heads that there can't be MU, because why would they kill off the Marquis cop!
Now there is one potential problem with this.... and that is why did Robz join onto the mcmc wagon and lynch his partner? Why not just wait it out and see if someone would change their vote to yuma instead! The answer is actually pretty simple. Robz knew that ash was going to be willing to move his vote onto mcmc, leaving Robz as the only remaining player not voting for MU scum. This would further implicate him as potentially being mcmc's partner... although the fact that he was the last player on the lynch wagon serves to implicate him as well.
Finally I have one last comment. We now know that Jimmm didn't use his doc ability last night. As a result we know that two nights ago a kill was not prevented by a doc. We also apparently know that theorel wasn't double NKed because of the lack of flavour like there was with shraeye. So to follow Robz's logic there were two scum teams alive two nights ago in MU and marquis. MU apparently killed theorel (which makes sense as he is their cop), but Marquis decided to let ashersky live and not shoot and risk being investigated by him? I think not. I think it is better explained that there was only 1 scum team left alive two nights ago, but with 2 players still alive. One night killed theorel. The other roleblocked or JKed me to prevent the LR from activating. And last night the remaining player killed ashersky. That player has to be Robz.
I won't even spend time looking at the possibility of him being a marquis with Glooble and themunch. Which I guess is possible.... But even w/o looking at that evidence--and I am happy to do so if people want me to--I am ready to vote for Robz. He has much more scumminess and evidence pointing in his direction than does Jimmm. I would be amazed to discover that Jimmm is scum over Robz.
Now because Robz will bring it up we should look at the balance question. If I am right... and I think I am right... the scum teams would basically be thus:
MU: Rolecop, Bomb, Roleblocker/JK
Marquis: Neighbor, Roleblocker
It isn't a perfect balance, but in my mind the Bomb is basically useless. It might hit the vig and it might hit the other scum team. Neighbor I think is even more powerful than it. I think it is balanced enough for me to feel comfortable with it.
Lio are we at a point where I can vote. Or should I wait for a bit?
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Topic: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 7) (Read 312049 times)