Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[liopoil]

cool, thanks! woah, there are a lot of guests!

[yuma]

This has probably been hashed out by other players, but I am doing it for my own sake--correct me if I am wrong about stuff please!

There is at least one scum left for a total of at least four.
 - If there is only one scum left it is MU because it would be stupid to have 3 Marq and only 1 MU. Obvious.

There could be two scum left for a total of five.
 - If there are two scum left, at least one is MU, because again it would make more sense for the pairing to be 3-2 than 4-1. Obvious again.
 - If there are two scum left, it is possible that there are two MU and zero Marq.

There could be three scum left for a total of six.
 - If there are three scum left, the obvious pairing would be 2 as MU and 1 as Marq leaving the scum 3-3 rather than 4-2.

So we know there is MU left, again obvious stuff here... so we should be looking more for Marq, all that 50/50 stuff going on. So we shouldn't be looking at people confirmed as non-MU today. It just doesn't make sense because there may not even be a Marq left! So that means not lio and not Jimmmm. I understand Robz's suspicion of lio to an extent. He does fit the bill of a Marq but we don't even know if another one exists.... although people have said before that if it was just munch/glooble then that was a pretty weak scum team, so there is likely another person on that scum team. But still the point remains that we may be looking for 2 MUs whereas we are looking for only 1 Marq.

So that means we are looking at a subset of Possible MU: ashersky, Robz, yuma, mcmcsalot, Dsell.

ash is cop. I am LR. mcmc is bomb, but less likely to be scum because of the tracking result. Sorry, I feel like I missed something, why is it that mcmc has to be paired with someone else to be on this scumteam? So I am looking at Dsell, mcmc, Robz.

Man, I am not good at this theory stuff, so correct me if I am wrong, but in the mean time I am actually going to go do what I feel pretty good at. Scum hunt!

[Robz888]

I understand Robz's suspicion of lio to an extent. He does fit the bill of a Marq but we don't even know if another one exists.... although people have said before that if it was just munch/glooble then that was a pretty weak scum team, so there is likely another person on that scum team. But still the point remains that we may be looking for 2 MUs whereas we are looking for only 1 Marq.

The part I bolded... can anyone possibly disagree with that? It is impossible for Glooble/Munch to be a scumteam by themselves. Impossible. Their powers are too weak. Remember that Jo gave Jimm a 1-shot doctoring to make up for scum being too strong! So there MUST be a maquis left, and the evidence suggests overwhelmingly that it is liopoil.

[yuma]

I understand Robz's suspicion of lio to an extent. He does fit the bill of a Marq but we don't even know if another one exists.... although people have said before that if it was just munch/glooble then that was a pretty weak scum team, so there is likely another person on that scum team. But still the point remains that we may be looking for 2 MUs whereas we are looking for only 1 Marq.

The part I bolded... can anyone possibly disagree with that? It is impossible for Glooble/Munch to be a scumteam by themselves. Impossible. Their powers are too weak. Remember that Jo gave Jimm a 1-shot doctoring to make up for scum being too strong! So there MUST be a maquis left, and the evidence suggests overwhelmingly that it is liopoil.

Yes I came to that conclusion... it is the line afterward that you didn't bold and ignored... that there is also a chance that there is 2 MU. So there is a better chance of looking in that direction. Do you agree...?

Although I suppose that if you are extremely sure about lio... and I will have to look at that more fully myself we could prevent an additional night kill because then the Marquis would be exterminated. I'll be honest... partially for my own sake... this makes more sense to me now (if lio is indeed marquis) because then I will have a greater chance of surviving the night as there wouldn't be two night kills for my LR to attract! I'll need to think about this more fully.

[liopoil]

not true. Jo gave jimmmmm doc in D1, before any scum were dead. If could have been that there was a very strong MU team, or that raerae, me, and Jimmmmm didn't really have powerful roles. Nobody really does, because everyone except Galz was a one shot. 5 scum out of 15 is a fairly bad ratio for town I think, especially with the potential of 2 town kills a night. We got lucky in that over three nights we have only had 2 town die, an 2 scum die.

[theorel]

mcmc is bomb, but less likely to be scum because of the tracking result. Sorry, I feel like I missed something, why is it that mcmc has to be paired with someone else to be on this scumteam?

I mean there is the possibility that Galz could kill and investigate at the same time...but usually a mafia rolecop can't do that.  We also know that Galz' team did kill Night1.  If Robz is not mcmc's partner, then mcmc did nothing N1.  If Galzria couldn't cop and kill, then someone else on his team had to kill.  That person cannot be mcmc because he didn't do anything.  Therefore mcmc needs another partner.

It's not quite guaranteed because it's possible that Galz could investigate and NK.  But I think it's a fair assumption that he couldn't.

[Robz888]

I understand Robz's suspicion of lio to an extent. He does fit the bill of a Marq but we don't even know if another one exists.... although people have said before that if it was just munch/glooble then that was a pretty weak scum team, so there is likely another person on that scum team. But still the point remains that we may be looking for 2 MUs whereas we are looking for only 1 Marq.

The part I bolded... can anyone possibly disagree with that? It is impossible for Glooble/Munch to be a scumteam by themselves. Impossible. Their powers are too weak. Remember that Jo gave Jimm a 1-shot doctoring to make up for scum being too strong! So there MUST be a maquis left, and the evidence suggests overwhelmingly that it is liopoil.

Yes I came to that conclusion... it is the line afterward that you didn't bold and ignored... that there is also a chance that there is 2 MU. So there is a better chance of looking in that direction. Do you agree...?

Although I suppose that if you are extremely sure about lio... and I will have to look at that more fully myself we could prevent an additional night kill because then the Marquis would be exterminated. I'll be honest... partially for my own sake... this makes more sense to me now (if lio is indeed marquis) because then I will have a greater chance of surviving the night as there wouldn't be two night kills for my LR to attract! I'll need to think about this more fully.

Yes, but the line of thinking on the MUs isn't as certain. Like, of course there is at least one, possibly two. (My guess at this point is one, and it's Dsell). But those are aren't certainties. We don't know whether its one or two, and we don't know who they are.

But there MUST be one--exactly one--maquis. And it's liopoil.

[yuma]

mcmc is bomb, but less likely to be scum because of the tracking result. Sorry, I feel like I missed something, why is it that mcmc has to be paired with someone else to be on this scumteam?

I mean there is the possibility that Galz could kill and investigate at the same time...but usually a mafia rolecop can't do that.  We also know that Galz' team did kill Night1.  If Robz is not mcmc's partner, then mcmc did nothing N1.  If Galzria couldn't cop and kill, then someone else on his team had to kill.  That person cannot be mcmc because he didn't do anything.  Therefore mcmc needs another partner.

It's not quite guaranteed because it's possible that Galz could investigate and NK.  But I think it's a fair assumption that he couldn't.

Ok I get that... can we ask the mod about it? I checked the OP and didn't see anything saying yay or nay. jotheonah: can mafia use night powers and kill the same night?

[theorel]

You're probably one of those people that asked questions in class, instead of just trying to guess at things where the instructions were unclear.

Also, existence of a doc does probably change things that I haven't tried to account for yet.  Fully negating a NK makes the upside of lynching the Maquis (assuming one exists) earlier greater.  I'll need to rethink things.

[Robz888]

If I wasn't super positive liopoil was part of the Munch/Glooble team, it would be another matter. But oh, just look at what happens in the course of day 3. The interactions between the three of them are crystal clear.

[jotheonah]

mcmc is bomb, but less likely to be scum because of the tracking result. Sorry, I feel like I missed something, why is it that mcmc has to be paired with someone else to be on this scumteam?

I mean there is the possibility that Galz could kill and investigate at the same time...but usually a mafia rolecop can't do that.  We also know that Galz' team did kill Night1.  If Robz is not mcmc's partner, then mcmc did nothing N1.  If Galzria couldn't cop and kill, then someone else on his team had to kill.  That person cannot be mcmc because he didn't do anything.  Therefore mcmc needs another partner.

It's not quite guaranteed because it's possible that Galz could investigate and NK.  But I think it's a fair assumption that he couldn't.

Ok I get that... can we ask the mod about it? I checked the OP and didn't see anything saying yay or nay. jotheonah: can mafia use night powers and kill the same night?

Maybe they can and maybe they can't. Maybe there are no mafia. Maybe the mafia have no powers. Maybe the mafia have no nightkill.

[liopoil]

Would you have let Munch give his scummates the QT?

maybe he'll answer that one?

[jotheonah]

Man if I start answering questions, it's a slippery slope.

[Robz888]

The mod can't publicly answer questions about matters that aren't publicly available. If you truly are a neighbor, you can PM him to ask if it's permissible to post neighbor qt anywhere else. YOU can, if you are a neighbor. No non-neighbor person can. Do you see?

[liopoil]

it could be public info if joth wanted it to be. There could be a rule that you aren't allowed to share QT links with anyone not in the QT

[Robz888]

it could be public info if joth wanted it to be. There could be a rule that you aren't allowed to share QT links with anyone not in the QT

Yes, that could be a rule, but it would be a rule that only people in the qt would be aware of.

[liopoil]

why is that necessarily so?

[mcmcsalot]

why is that necessarily so?

Because the mod is not allowed to publicly give any information about roles to anyone, you could be lying you even a neighbor and joth answering neighbor related questions is mod confirming your role. I'm not saying your not a neighbor I'm just saying thats why joth cannot publicly announce any information where as my brother keeps saying you could pm joth and then tell us without quoting once again still making it so we have to take your word for it and not mod confirming you.

[Robz888]

why is that necessarily so?

Beause this game is an unknown setup. There is no list of powers and exactly what they do. Some games have this. In those games, you can quiz the mod all you want on how various powers would interact. CHeck out M-XII, for example.

But in this game, the specific powers are unknown. So you can't actually ask about powers that you don't have. They may or may not xist. You might put Jo in a position where he has to try and explain how a fake power--a power someone lied to have--would interact with whatever your question is about.

[Dsell]

I'm not mafia of any sort.

I should look at Robz' reasoning for Liopoil again, reading through it didn't seem all that terribly damning. If you're so sure it might be worth making a mega-post when you get the chance pointing out all their interactions and irrefutable evidence.

I understand and am a bit surprised that there is guaranteed scum between myself, Robz, Ashersky, yuma, and mcmc. That could be a good place to look. I am station, but believe me, I know I haven't been playing like it. I have had a strong townread on Robz and yuma most of the game. Robz is seeming more flaily today, but I still think it's just reallyreally sure Robz. Yuma shouldn't be a lynch target since he can LR to potentially prove himself/absorb the kills. I have given some towncred to Ashersky and Mcmc most of the game because Robz has said he's very sure of their towniness. Ashersky has actually read a bit scummy to me, though, UNTIL TODAY. (Another thing to note, is that if the cop is scum, can we trust them to be fully honest about who they investigated/their results?) Someone else mentioned this, but he is reading very very townie to me today. That leaves Mcmc, who I have not had a great read on ever. What was his claim again?

Any of the above reads could be wrong, but they are what they are. My strongest read of the game has been a townread on Robz, followed by a scumread on munch (SO VALIDATED).

If Robz is able to really sell me on it, I think that lynching the last Marquis (if it is Liopoil) is the SMARTEST lynch for the day, since obviously eliminating a night kill is fantastic.

[Robz888]

And again, the fact that you don't know whether neighbors are allowed to post links to the qt is really weird. If you were truly a neighbor, you could ask and he would tell you, if he hadn't already made it clear in the neighbors qt, which is what I assume he would do.

[yuma]

in regard to ash's cop claims... we can trust him so far in that he investigated dead people... (he may have lied about that, but I am not sure why)... and made theorel IC. I can't see a scenario where scum!ash would lie about investigating theorel with the result of making him an IC.

and theorel is IC, so I trust his results.

[liopoil]

but the mod has already confirmed in posting the flips that munch was a neighbor and maquis, and that he did have a partner. I'm not asking about a role that could potentially not exist.

I did also post the question in the QT. haven't heard anything yet.

[liopoil]

oh wow, he actually gave me an answer! he said that he thought sharing QT links was never allowed in mafia games. He said that he didn't tell munch that he couldn't, but would have told munch he could not do that if he had asked. lastly he said that if munch HAD given his team the link that he would have tried to remove it.

[ashersky]

Ok, weekend here.

I see the logic in going after the MU.  But I really think the case on lio is strong, and eliminating a kill tonight is big.

Yuma should LR tonight to prove his innocence and ensure only one death at most.

Between Dsell/Robz, Robz is townier.  I was the only person who didn't give Dsell cred for the town/station post.  So I'd prefer Dsell.

My post about lynching the cop was trying to draw out some opinions from people to see if I could get some clues on who might be maq.  I thought they might be over eager to agree.