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[TheMunch]

Also, I did take a stance yesterday, albeit lacking confidence.  My stance was that they were both town and Galzria was forcing me to choose one of them as scum.

[TheMunch]

So mcmc was voting for Cuzz.  He couldn't have hammered....

It could've been set up so he could, and the question was put to him hours before the deadline.

Was it though?  Was there ever talk of elaborately allowing mcmc to hammer Cuzz to which mcmc's response was refusal?

[Galzria]

Also, I did take a stance yesterday, albeit lacking confidence.  My stance was that they were both town and Galzria was forcing me to choose one of them as scum.

And yet you showed no interest in making it one death instead of two? Were you aware that they both died in a tie?

See, I don't buy this answer in this setup with these rules. If you thought they were both town then lynching one instead of deadlining two is much better. Unless you're scum, in which case seeing both killed is superior - something that could only be achieved by not voting.

[Galzria]

So mcmc was voting for Cuzz.  He couldn't have hammered....

It could've been set up so he could, and the question was put to him hours before the deadline.

Was it though?  Was there ever talk of elaborately allowing mcmc to hammer Cuzz to which mcmc's response was refusal?

It was not as long before the deadline as I recall, but man was the thread flying fast. Felt like SO much happened. Probably because we saw 150 posts in 45 minutes... Sheesh!

However, (one moment):

[Galzria]

mcmc, would you hammer Cuzz?

nope, I think cuzz is scum, I think he will vengekill me and I think thats bad for town.

[TheMunch]

Yeah.  I was actually making a post when thread locked stating that 2 deaths instead of 1 isn't actually the worst thing to happen because they dont actually both count as mislynches.  It still counted as one mislynch and we still get our third mislynch today.  Having one more town alive frankly would add a great bit of confusion today.  I am much happier to still have one mislynch left and an extra flip.

PPE: Ok, then I disagree with that statement from mcmc.  Clearly, it would not have been bad for town if he did that.  But theres something that makes me uneasy that you were the one that asked that question and then were the one to make the comment about how weird it was that mcmc wouldn't hammer.  Maybe I missed this too, but did you also say this yesterday?  That mcmc was weird for not being willing to hammer?

That being said I went and checked your huge post again.  I really dont understand the logical step in your case from "mcmc is weird for not wanting to hammer" to "thats why I think the Munch is scum".

[jotheonah]

Oh, I missed that. Yeah that reads really scummy.

Galz, to answer your question, I tentatively am OK with Robz hammering Munch. But since we really can't afford to be wrong, I think we should take our time. I think I'll have time around lunch to do some re-reading and really try to get to where I feel good about my reads.

I mean, obviously that's game over if Robz is scum and TheMunch is town, which would also be true if you and Robz were the scum team. How do you feel about TheMunch hammering Robz?

[Galzria]

Indeed I did:

anyone but insom lynching cuzz is better than this, if we tie, you lose one town and one posible scum, if anyone but insom lynches we have the chance to lose two unconfirmed, this is how it is from my perspective.

According to you if you lynch Cuzz it will be one scum one town anyway, same as a tie. So why not be willing to cast the hammer?

because anyone else hammering him makes a possiblity hes scum, and the hammerer is scum. If he is town we lose one town If hes scum we lose one scum and possibly another scum. If I hammer we lose either one town, or one scum one town.

There is no possibility that he's scum and his "mysterious hemmerer" is also scum.

[TheMunch]

Oh, I missed that. Yeah that reads really scummy.

What is "that"

[Galzria]

Oh, I missed that. Yeah that reads really scummy.

Galz, to answer your question, I tentatively am OK with Robz hammering Munch. But since we really can't afford to be wrong, I think we should take our time. I think I'll have time around lunch to do some re-reading and really try to get to where I feel good about my reads.

I mean, obviously that's game over if Robz is scum and TheMunch is town, which would also be true if you and Robz were the scum team. How do you feel about TheMunch hammering Robz?

I would consider it an option. I understand why you personally would want that. I don't THINK the scumteam is Joth-Munch, so I don't think you're redirecting for a scum win (at least not intentionally! If it's Eevee/Munch you would be!)

[Galzria]

Yeah.  I was actually making a post when thread locked stating that 2 deaths instead of 1 isn't actually the worst thing to happen because they dont actually both count as mislynches.  It still counted as one mislynch and we still get our third mislynch today.  Having one more town alive frankly would add a great bit of confusion today.  I am much happier to still have one mislynch left and an extra flip.

PPE: Ok, then I disagree with that statement from mcmc.  Clearly, it would not have been bad for town if he did that.  But theres something that makes me uneasy that you were the one that asked that question and then were the one to make the comment about how weird it was that mcmc wouldn't hammer.  Maybe I missed this too, but did you also say this yesterday?  That mcmc was weird for not being willing to hammer?

That being said I went and checked your huge post again.  I really dont understand the logical step in your case from "mcmc is weird for not wanting to hammer" to "thats why I think the Munch is scum".

But... We aren't limited by mislynches. 2 deaths was twice as bad as one!

If only one died yesterday, then we would have 4 town here and two scum. In normal situations you're right - even parity is bad - but this isn't a normal setup. 1 mislynch wouldn't mean an instant loss since we don't go to night. We would get a flip, and if town, have the arguments and wagons to analyze to decide our second lynch.

We essentially made today a single lynch day instead of a double.

[TheMunch]

Yeah.  I was actually making a post when thread locked stating that 2 deaths instead of 1 isn't actually the worst thing to happen because they dont actually both count as mislynches.  It still counted as one mislynch and we still get our third mislynch today.  Having one more town alive frankly would add a great bit of confusion today.  I am much happier to still have one mislynch left and an extra flip.

PPE: Ok, then I disagree with that statement from mcmc.  Clearly, it would not have been bad for town if he did that.  But theres something that makes me uneasy that you were the one that asked that question and then were the one to make the comment about how weird it was that mcmc wouldn't hammer.  Maybe I missed this too, but did you also say this yesterday?  That mcmc was weird for not being willing to hammer?

That being said I went and checked your huge post again.  I really dont understand the logical step in your case from "mcmc is weird for not wanting to hammer" to "thats why I think the Munch is scum".

But... We aren't limited by mislynches. 2 deaths was twice as bad as one!

If only one died yesterday, then we would have 4 town here and two scum. In normal situations you're right - even parity is bad - but this isn't a normal setup. 1 mislynch wouldn't mean an instant loss since we don't go to night. We would get a flip, and if town, have the arguments and wagons to analyze to decide our second lynch.

We essentially made today a single lynch day instead of a double.

This is wrong.  If it was 4-2, we mislynch first its 3-2, then we lynch scum, its now 2-1 and we lose.  No matter what we would only get one mislynch.  Whether or not we "get" a second lynch, the game is still over.  Just in this case, we start 3-2 and we get the benefit of knowing mcmc is town (as opposed to his allignment being unknown and you couldn't have set up a case on him today instead

[TheMunch]

Yeah.  I was actually making a post when thread locked stating that 2 deaths instead of 1 isn't actually the worst thing to happen because they dont actually both count as mislynches.  It still counted as one mislynch and we still get our third mislynch today.  Having one more town alive frankly would add a great bit of confusion today.  I am much happier to still have one mislynch left and an extra flip.

PPE: Ok, then I disagree with that statement from mcmc.  Clearly, it would not have been bad for town if he did that.  But theres something that makes me uneasy that you were the one that asked that question and then were the one to make the comment about how weird it was that mcmc wouldn't hammer.  Maybe I missed this too, but did you also say this yesterday?  That mcmc was weird for not being willing to hammer?

That being said I went and checked your huge post again.  I really dont understand the logical step in your case from "mcmc is weird for not wanting to hammer" to "thats why I think the Munch is scum".

But... We aren't limited by mislynches. 2 deaths was twice as bad as one!

If only one died yesterday, then we would have 4 town here and two scum. In normal situations you're right - even parity is bad - but this isn't a normal setup. 1 mislynch wouldn't mean an instant loss since we don't go to night. We would get a flip, and if town, have the arguments and wagons to analyze to decide our second lynch.

We essentially made today a single lynch day instead of a double.

This is wrong.  If it was 4-2, we mislynch first its 3-2, then we lynch scum, its now 2-1 and we lose.  No matter what we would only get one mislynch.  Whether or not we "get" a second lynch, the game is still over.  Just in this case, we start 3-2 and we get the benefit of knowing mcmc is town (as opposed to his allignment being unknown and you couldn't have set up a case on him today instead

Thinking more, its more like we get three lynches today and we've already used one as a mislynch.  If we mislynch first in the 4-2 set up, we'd be in the same position we are right now, but with only one lynch to follow it up.

[Galzria]

Yeah.  I was actually making a post when thread locked stating that 2 deaths instead of 1 isn't actually the worst thing to happen because they dont actually both count as mislynches.  It still counted as one mislynch and we still get our third mislynch today.  Having one more town alive frankly would add a great bit of confusion today.  I am much happier to still have one mislynch left and an extra flip.

PPE: Ok, then I disagree with that statement from mcmc.  Clearly, it would not have been bad for town if he did that.  But theres something that makes me uneasy that you were the one that asked that question and then were the one to make the comment about how weird it was that mcmc wouldn't hammer.  Maybe I missed this too, but did you also say this yesterday?  That mcmc was weird for not being willing to hammer?

That being said I went and checked your huge post again.  I really dont understand the logical step in your case from "mcmc is weird for not wanting to hammer" to "thats why I think the Munch is scum".

The step is made because you weren't on either wagon. You were the only player not on either. Had you been on either we would've had only a single death. In any other game this is ridiculous because you had self proclaimed town reads on both of them - but in this setup that's even worse because you're then stating a belief that they're both town, yet also that letting them both die is ok. A vote on noone is strictly worse than a vote on either - even if they're both town.

The only situation hammering one is bad in is if one is scum and the other town, and you choose the town - because this is strictly removing a scum lynch. But you personally didn't express any belief that this was the case. You said you thought both were town.

I guess it feels like, as scum, you could take the best of both world - Not by on a townie lynch (either of them!), and also see two townies dead in one swoop.

As town, your actions to "do nothing" with two town reads make as little sense to me as mcmc not wanting to hammer Cuzz. I was wrong about mcmc's alignment, but I don't think my confusion over his answer was unfounded.

[TheMunch]

Thinking more through the situation: 4-2 mislynch -> 3-2.  So now its 3-2.  Wed need to find scum for starters.  Then put only 2 votes on him so there isn't a town hammer then let it go to deadline.  But there are 2 scum, who could just put their two votes down on someone else.  Then the same thing still happens.  We wouldn't have gotten through to day 3 after a mislynch if we started 4-2.  BUT right now, its 3-2 AND we can still win by lynching scum twice.

PPE: read all my theory stuff, including this one.  You can disagree with that if you like, but the 1 or 2 town dead doesn't actually make a whole lot of difference.  The 1 town dead vs 2 town dead doesn't actually effect at all the necessity to lynch correctly right now.  In this case we have to pick 2 scum out of 5 people instead of 6.

[Galzria]

Yeah.  I was actually making a post when thread locked stating that 2 deaths instead of 1 isn't actually the worst thing to happen because they dont actually both count as mislynches.  It still counted as one mislynch and we still get our third mislynch today.  Having one more town alive frankly would add a great bit of confusion today.  I am much happier to still have one mislynch left and an extra flip.

PPE: Ok, then I disagree with that statement from mcmc.  Clearly, it would not have been bad for town if he did that.  But theres something that makes me uneasy that you were the one that asked that question and then were the one to make the comment about how weird it was that mcmc wouldn't hammer.  Maybe I missed this too, but did you also say this yesterday?  That mcmc was weird for not being willing to hammer?

That being said I went and checked your huge post again.  I really dont understand the logical step in your case from "mcmc is weird for not wanting to hammer" to "thats why I think the Munch is scum".

But... We aren't limited by mislynches. 2 deaths was twice as bad as one!

If only one died yesterday, then we would have 4 town here and two scum. In normal situations you're right - even parity is bad - but this isn't a normal setup. 1 mislynch wouldn't mean an instant loss since we don't go to night. We would get a flip, and if town, have the arguments and wagons to analyze to decide our second lynch.

We essentially made today a single lynch day instead of a double.

This is wrong.  If it was 4-2, we mislynch first its 3-2, then we lynch scum, its now 2-1 and we lose.  No matter what we would only get one mislynch.  Whether or not we "get" a second lynch, the game is still over.  Just in this case, we start 3-2 and we get the benefit of knowing mcmc is town (as opposed to his allignment being unknown and you couldn't have set up a case on him today instead

Thinking more, its more like we get three lynches today and we've already used one as a mislynch.  If we mislynch first in the 4-2 set up, we'd be in the same position we are right now, but with only one lynch to follow it up.

We don't lose if we lynch scum with a town hammer. Two Town and One scum do not an endgame make.

We lose on the next mislynch. Losing two town yesterday cost us an available mislynch today (as you noted I'm your second post here)

[TheMunch]

2 town 1 scum after the second lynch if town hammers.  Then they get the night kill and town loses.

[Galzria]

Thinking more through the situation: 4-2 mislynch -> 3-2.  So now its 3-2.  Wed need to find scum for starters.  Then put only 2 votes on him so there isn't a town hammer then let it go to deadline.  But there are 2 scum, who could just put their two votes down on someone else.  Then the same thing still happens.  We wouldn't have gotten through to day 3 after a mislynch if we started 4-2.  BUT right now, its 3-2 AND we can still win by lynching scum twice.

PPE: read all my theory stuff, including this one.  You can disagree with that if you like, but the 1 or 2 town dead doesn't actually make a whole lot of difference.  The 1 town dead vs 2 town dead doesn't actually effect at all the necessity to lynch correctly right now.  In this case we have to pick 2 scum out of 5 people instead of 6.

It breaks down like this:

D2 starts - We MUST hit scum. It's 3-2 and a mislynch is game over. We don't need to lynch scum with a scum hammer, because 2-1 is still viable (scum has 1/3 the town, not 1/2). We then need to find the last scum.

However, IF we had only lynched 1 and not 2:

D2 starts - We do not NEED to hit scum. If we fail, we are put into a 3-2 situation. At this point, as per above, we must hit scum or lose. Unlike above however, it must be a scum lynch with a scum hammer.

... Which they have no reason to do since town can't lynch them on their own. Going 2-1 there isn't possible since we head to night.

So yes, you're correct that in either case we need to double up scum lynches. And yes, having one fewer townie to do so with is probably better. Even vs Odd parity and all.

:-/ That "two lynches a day" thing is weird.

[TheMunch]

Ok I gotta head into work.  I'm going to leave it at this and I want to hear from Robz/Eevee.

My understanding of Galz case on me is that my "sitting back" at the end of yesterday was an elaborate ruse to put town in worse shape today.  This argument doesn't actually work if we are actually in no worse shape today than we would be if mcmc hammered cuzz.  I'll let you all figure this out for yourself but the two situations are:

Cuzz is dead, Mcmc is alive, we dont know that hes town.  It is 4 town, 2 scum.
Cuzz and mcmc are dead, both confirmed town.  It is 3 town, 2 scum.

I encourage each of you to actually think through both of these situations and determine whether the difference of mcmc being alive changes the fact that if our first lynch hits town we lose.  In both scenarios I feel we have to lynch scum, then lynch scum again or else we lose, just in this case we get the added bonus of knowing mcmc is town.

PPE: Maybe Galzria is even coming around?

[jotheonah]

I think the tactic TheMunch is taking to arguing this is scummy. He's not saying "I didn't sit around and force a double lynch," he's owning up to that and trying to convince us that it was a pro-town decision. That just strikes me as more of a scum play than town. Like he sat around all night rehearsing an explanation for scummy behavior he knew he'd be called out on.

I'm warming to a Munch lynch. And if Eevee is his partner, that explains why he's waiting for Eevee to weigh in here.

[TheMunch]

I think the tactic TheMunch is taking to arguing this is scummy. He's not saying "I didn't sit around and force a double lynch," he's owning up to that and trying to convince us that it was a pro-town decision. That just strikes me as more of a scum play than town. Like he sat around all night rehearsing an explanation for scummy behavior he knew he'd be called out on.

I'm warming to a Munch lynch. And if Eevee is his partner, that explains why he's waiting for Eevee to weigh in here.

I'm saying I made a pro town decision.  I'm saying Galz argument is that I made an anti-town decision and I disagree with that.  I made a neutral to town decision (noted by the fact that I claim that both situations leave us in the we-have-to-lynch-scum-first scenario). Not-anti-town is not the same as pro-town.

Its funny because I actually feel like Galzria's argument is very rehearsed.

Question for Joth though:  If I had this lined up, why would I have been posting my thoughts very stream of consciousness in thread?  (In before "because I also expected someone to say that my posts looked rehearsed so I tried to build myself an excuse while posting")

[TheMunch]

I think the tactic TheMunch is taking to arguing this is scummy. He's not saying "I didn't sit around and force a double lynch," he's owning up to that and trying to convince us that it was a pro-town decision. That just strikes me as more of a scum play than town. Like he sat around all night rehearsing an explanation for scummy behavior he knew he'd be called out on.

I'm warming to a Munch lynch. And if Eevee is his partner, that explains why he's waiting for Eevee to weigh in here.

Point 2:  I think I'm right but I want you all to convince yourselves.  I've made my case why I think the two situations have neutral effect on town but I really do what people to think through it themselves.  You dont have to believe me, just think through the situation yourself and come to your own conclusion.

[TheMunch]

With 12 hrs to go, I REALLY want to hear from Robz and Eevee instead of constantly arguing with my scum reads.

[Robz888]

Okay I am here now.

I would HAPPILY hammer Munch, who is for some reason arguing numbers, and is absolutely scum alongside Eevee.

[Eevee]

Yes, Munch is right there, not Galzria. However, it doesn't make him much if any any less scummy to me! Robz hammering him I'm absolutely fine with, although joth looks plenty scummy too for not acknowledging galz is town. I still so don't understand these town reads on joth.

On emotional level, it feels like joth-munch, they both feel really scummy especially today. Munch looks like he realized he was right about that one thing so he used explaining that as his defense even though it doesn't make him town, not at all. I disagree with Galzria in that robz's mystical town read points to joth being town. I agree it's a factor, but I'd be hesitant of putting that much weight into it.

I still absolutely stand behind treating galz as obvtown. All the evidence still points at Robz being scum. Robz is the only of the three that feels sincere to me, I was hoping I'd get a townread on Munch or joth but no no. Still, the evidence against Robz is there and is more real than any scum read could be. I'd still prefer Munch or joth hammering Robz, but I understand why you cant go for that galz.