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[Jimmmmm]

Everything always happens while I'm asleep! Catching up now.

[Captain_Frisk]

So - first up: theory.

The game that this is based on is no worse than a fair game to town.

Town has at its disposal - the ability to guarantee a 50% win rate (lynching randomly - driven by ICs).  Scum doesn't have this opportunity available to it.  If town does not take this option, its because they believe they can do better than 50/50.

[Captain_Frisk]

...you know what, on second thought, time to play mafia.

I wanted to do one of these cause they're always fun:

Robz888: 20
Eevee: 23, but his last post was at 9:58 am
sparky5856: 16, including this post
Grujah: 13
Jimmmmm: 13, last post 11:57 am
Captain_Frisk: I'm not bothering to do you, we all know you're active.
Insomniac: 20, though he came here late, at 11:12 am
SwitchedFromStarcraft: 24

So, I'm being better than I usually am about posting very little, but I'm still below average. I'm doing this in response to this little bit:

And why do you need to know where Eevee is, as opposed to Sparky and Jim, the other folks that have said relatively little.  If that's a call for folks online to be hear.

Out of all of us, Eevee is the lurkiest as of the past few hours, so that's why we're questioning where HE is. Jimmmmm and I has been inactive recently too though, me the least of the three but still not active enough. My concern is that you seem to be giving Eevee a pass here, and so I want to see if this is the case.

So that's that, obviously there's more to come but I wanted to get this out first.

Eevee is not on EST/PST likely he is asleep right now, same for Jimmmmmmm

Yeah, but he's been quiet all afternoon it seems.

[sparky5856]

...you know what, on second thought, time to play mafia.

I wanted to do one of these cause they're always fun:

Robz888: 20
Eevee: 23, but his last post was at 9:58 am
sparky5856: 16, including this post
Grujah: 13
Jimmmmm: 13, last post 11:57 am
Captain_Frisk: I'm not bothering to do you, we all know you're active.
Insomniac: 20, though he came here late, at 11:12 am
SwitchedFromStarcraft: 24

So, I'm being better than I usually am about posting very little, but I'm still below average. I'm doing this in response to this little bit:

And why do you need to know where Eevee is, as opposed to Sparky and Jim, the other folks that have said relatively little.  If that's a call for folks online to be hear.

Out of all of us, Eevee is the lurkiest as of the past few hours, so that's why we're questioning where HE is. Jimmmmm and I has been inactive recently too though, me the least of the three but still not active enough. My concern is that you seem to be giving Eevee a pass here, and so I want to see if this is the case.

So that's that, obviously there's more to come but I wanted to get this out first.

Eevee is not on EST/PST likely he is asleep right now, same for Jimmmmmmm

What time zone is Eevee in?

First! This time I don't claim VT.

This should be quite a bit better for town than the previous setup.

There seem to be differing opinions on the subject. I personally think it's close / don't know, so I would prefer if the actual masons hashed it out in their QT and decided themselves. That way it at least won't be scum-affected. Thoughts?

I'm with robz on this one.  How did scum win in 6?  Anything notable?

No, nothing special at all happened. Right, Insomniac?

The one who sticks out to me most atm is Grujah; his "blah" attitude reminds me of scum-Grujah. Where did your initial scum vibe on Frisk come from Eevee? He was the one who proposed the mason debate. It's a possibility that scum is trying to out the masons early, but the opposite scenario is plausible as well.

Mason talk came kind of fast, which could meant that he had already been planning this in the QT before posting. Not a lot, I know. Also I got the impression he was ready to be here to talk about sports with SfS without really giving any comments to any other issues, but reread proved that to be a false statement.

So, just to be clear, I'm totally neutral on Frisk's alignment this far. Hasn't played townier or scummier than average, I don't think.

Based on these timestamps, he should have been here these past couple hours.

[Captain_Frisk]

Essay continued:

This game has the ability to revert back to the other game with 1 caveat: the ICs would have daychat (added bonus).  The Masons can claim without fear of counterclaim, because a counterclaim by scum on day 1 guarantees loss for them.

If the masons don't claim, these are the ramifications:
1. They might both live to day 2, preserving their daychat
2. We might waste time on day 1 prosecuting masons
3. Vanilla townies have no sources of confirmed town reads

In a day 1 town lynch scenario: scum can claim / counterclaim mason on day 2 and get a 75% win chance.  (50% chance of winning on day 2, 50% chance of winning on day 3) = 0.5 + 0.5*(0.5)

[sparky5856]

Is there any advantage for masons to decide to have completely differing opinions on how to claim? My inclination is that they at least wouldn't have completely opposed opinions.

[Captain_Frisk]

So - IMHO it is correct to claim.  RobZ also feels its correct to claim.

Clearly, if either of us were masons, we would have done so.  RobZ's willingness to take a stand makes him VT in my book.  Everyone else with the exception of insomniac has been wishy washy.  I am also vanilla town.

Insomniac is a clever fellow.  He knows that neither RobZ or I are masons from our behavior.  This gives scum the advantage of being able to narrow down who the masons are, while RobZ and I have no comparable advantage - because we can't daychat, but scum can.

Now - if Insomniac is a mason (which i admit is a possibility), then he knows that competent scum have already narrowed masonhood down to him, and 2 other townies.  At this point - he SHOULD CLAIM, rather than having us waste time, and possibly let scum get a vengekill on him.

He's been SOFT CLAIMING today so hard that any savvy scum should know this as well.

[Jimmmmm]

Just did a quick re-read of Insom. Most of his posts seem to be short/one-liners and although he's had a reasonable number of posts, he hasn't really said much other than "Robz and Grujah seem scummy but they're fighting oh well". Also seems to be quite defensive, which is reminding me of someone who flipped scum in another game.

[Jimmmmm]

Whoop, finally time for my Tournament match. Wish me luck!

[Captain_Frisk]

Now - if the masons announce, then I (as town) can focus my attention on 4 individuals, rather than 6.  I'd even go so far as to say that I feel like we've won, as long as RobZ isn't a mason who's doing something crazy, because in the vein of the other games, he'd be my top town read right now.

If the masons claimed right now, I'd without hesitation lynch 1,2,3 on whoever isn't {RobZ + Masons}

[Captain_Frisk]

Now - if the masons announce, then I (as town) can focus my attention on 4 individuals, rather than 6.  I'd even go so far as to say that I feel like we've won, as long as RobZ isn't a mason who's doing something crazy, because in the vein of the other games, he'd be my top town read right now.

If the masons claimed right now, I'd without hesitation lynch 1,2,3 on whoever isn't {RobZ + Masons}

To makes sure this is clear.

If I assume RobZ is vanilla town, and 2 other people are masons, then there are 3 scum amoung the remaining 4 people.  We can afford 1 mislynch, so game over QED.

[Jimmmmm]

Thoughts on Frisk and the Robz/Grujah thing when after I finish.

[Captain_Frisk]

And insomniac, if you are a mason as you have been soft claming, then voting me is not only stupid, but opposing claiming is a bad idea because your crumbs were hellaobv.

[Captain_Frisk]

Essay complete.  I'm going to post count and reread the wishy washy folks and figure out who's scum.  Excited about this blitz.

Ashersky - I'm sorry for calling you a sissy, and not knowing yoru situation.  The reason why I oppose mod intervention is because you've effectively mod confirmed that Insomniac and I are not on the same team (at least knowingly)... since if I was scum with him you'd probably just let us go because you'd know that it wasn't possibly personal. 

[Captain_Frisk]

1 - Robz888 - 21
2 - Eevee - 25
3 - sparky5856 - 20
4 - Grujah - 14
5 - Jimmmmm - 19
6 - Captain_Frisk - 50 (42 if you want to discount my recent essay / rant)
7 - Insomniac - 50
8 - SwitchedFromStarcraft - 28

[Robz888]

Frisk has the right of it--I am also a VT.

I do believe Frisk to be town. If he's right about Insomniac... well, we win.

Masons?

[sparky5856]

I wouldn't account someone as definite town just because they have similar opinions to that of yours. I can't get my thoughts organized, but Robz has done both scummy and towny things in my book; he's still a scum possibility. #70 is his most notable post, I'll post my thoughts on that.

I'm amazed at how fast this day has gone O_o I think we're far enough in now that claiming would be the optimal move. Now that at least some accusations have been brewing, they can claim, not waste more time, and we all can see some truths.

Grujah I REALLY want to vote for now, #1 scum + LaLL

[Captain_Frisk]

Grujah (14):
- weekly opposes massclaim
- doesn't know rules
- votes for insomniac

Jimmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm (19)
- weakly opposes massclaim
- hops on eevee's let the ICs decide
- starts to put a little suspicion on insomniac after grujah and I have voted

Sparky (20)
- thinks that keeping both masons alive would be super powerful
- wants to implement lall (after discussion about how it wrongly lynched Cuzz in last game)
- does a post count - realizes that he's a lurker

RobZ (21):
- supports massclaim
- doesn't say much else
- suspects grujah
- buddies SFS for catching something on grujah
- very low post count for RobZ

Eevee (25)
- wishy washy on massclaim.  Wants someone else to simulate
- thought he had me as scummy
- mild suspicion of sfs
- thinks Ics should decide whether to claim

SFS (28)
- mild lead toward claim. 
- votes grujah
- > 10% of his posts are "going away for X hours"

Insomniac (50)
-Already covered him.  Either a mason who isn't being protown, or scum who really didn't want me to post what I just did.

[Captain_Frisk]

I bet the scum QT is on fire right now.

[Captain_Frisk]

I wouldn't account someone as definite town just because they have similar opinions to that of yours. I can't get my thoughts organized, but Robz has done both scummy and towny things in my book; he's still a scum possibility. #70 is his most notable post, I'll post my thoughts on that.

I'm amazed at how fast this day has gone O_o I think we're far enough in now that claiming would be the optimal move. Now that at least some accusations have been brewing, they can claim, not waste more time, and we all can see some truths.

Grujah I REALLY want to vote for now, #1 scum + LaLL

It's not that he has similar opinions - its that he has strong opinions. 

I would give insomniac a pass if RobZ and my strong opinions didn't out us as clearly "not masons", which then makes the whole purpose of keeping masons a secret a bad idea.

[Insomniac]

IMO I have not been soft claiming. However at this pint I will hard claim since frisk refuses to let me play his game the right way. I am one of the masons. If we lose I blame frisk

[Captain_Frisk]

IMO I have not been soft claiming. However at this pint I will hard claim since frisk refuses to let me play his game the right way. I am one of the masons. If we lose I blame frisk

Unvote

[Captain_Frisk]

IMO I have not been soft claiming. However at this pint I will hard claim since frisk refuses to let me play his game the right way. I am one of the masons. If we lose I blame frisk

What is the right way? 

[sparky5856]

post #70:

Like, maybe I can build a case on Grujah now. Grujah used a stupid excuse to put a vote on me, in this hasty setup where votes flying everywhere isn't so good. And he's wrong on the claiming argument, whatever. So I have this case on him. Now I would try to convince Eevee and other people, that's how it works.

Grujah flying votes around is consistent with the fact that he's not aware of how this game works. Instead of actually building a case on Grujah, though, he build a hypothetical situation where he WOULD claim Grujah barring the existance of the masons. This I can see town-Robz doing.

But if Grujah is IC... we're never actually going to get to the point of killing him (he'll claim before that), and this is all wasted discussion on someone who is not a viable candidate for lynch.

Now, ICs leading the discussion (while having their own private discussion) is I think something that will work nice. I was IC with Jimm in the last game, and I would have loved to explain to him the traps I was setting for suspects when I asked people to answer questions.

Experience; that's also in his favor. There is the possibility that he would do all of this just for town points though.

Obviously, they can still do this, sort of... but I do like the IC-led discussion format (and I think it will be greatly advantaged by their daychat), and I think it will be the best thing here. Better than blind man accusations.

Well, if everyone disagrees I'll drop it.

That last sentence is the scummiest of the post; inclination to drop things on account of everyone else wanting it in order to avoid suspicion is a scummy act. But the logic of this post is overall sound, he has the upper hand against Grujah.

Bussing is possible, but I need more evidence to be convinced of that though (and the other way too).

PPE: I'm a lurker at heart. Post count was to see if my disease improved in any way. Somewhat, but not much.

[ashersky]

Vote Count 1.5

Eevee (0, u1): Captain_Frisk
Robz888 (0, u1): Grujah
Grujah (1, u1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
Insomniac (1, u2): Grujah, Captain Frisk
Captain_Frisk (1, u1): Insomniac

Not Voting (4): Eevee, Jimmmmm, Robz888, sparky5856

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is Tuesday, December 18th, at 4:30 p.m. forum time.