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[Eevee]

no one even read let alone considered my plan. makes me sad. looking forward to the post game discussions where you're actually honest though.

I read it, expressed qualified agreement, asked a lot of very specific questions, and didn't get any answers.  Part of that is my fault - I failed to hold folks accountable.

the questions were after I started the earlier explained phone posting phase. tbh, because Everyone else seemed to disagree with it, just didnt see it as productive.

I wish people agreed with me on Robz. don't know if I should vote for Galz, personally I don't think he is scum but shraeye suspectx him and I'm sort of the alternstice target.

[Galzria]

I'm also frustrated that I make posts and nobody seems to want to engage them, so I don't know how to defend myself. I feel like I'm being as honest and open as I can and I'm talking to a wall. Take, for example, this post, which got no replies:

Good.  I have done analysis computing likely scum triples.  I believe there is no way Insom and SFS are both scum.

Also, Insom is not today's lynch, if I have my way.  I am mildly inclined to believe Robz's assessment that Insom is acting just like town insom.

People I am currently most suspicious of are Robz/Galz.

Vote: Galz

PPE: I agree with eevee; and am about to look through Robz's stuff.

Sorry, posting over warnings and missed this.

I'm not sure how to respond though since you didn't really present a case. You mentioned in another post about possible "pairs", and I guess if you're talking about "is too uncertain about too many people, thus could be scum with any of them", I couldn't really refute you except to say I'm not scum.

I agree that I'm on the fence in a lot of places. Almost all of my reads are circumstantial. "If Insomniac is town, SFS is likely scum" - "If Eevee is town, CF is likely scum UNLESS SFS/Insomniac are both scum", "If Eevee is scum, CF is is likely town and one of SFS/Ins is scum". The only thing I've been consistent about is my strong dislike of Robz buddying up to me. Everything else feels weak at best. Comes with the territory of only knowing my own alignment, but knowing 3 of 5 others are scum.

[Eevee]

okay Galz feels town to me. shraeye, eoooobz!

[Galzria]

As an IC, I apologize that my reads have been all over the place.  With the quick deadline, I often post all theories immediately once I have them because it's very illuminating to see who agrees with me and who doesn't.  Then I realize that there is something else that doesn't seem to line up.  I'm currently second-guessing myself with regard to Insom.  But I'm sticking with my Galz vote for now, and likely for the rest of the day.  It's of note to me that Galz is the most level headed here it seems.  I'm sticking with the idea that town are going crazy like me and scrambling to understand things, but mafia would be cool and not seem to stick out much.

I agree with Insom's idea that Galz seems to be gearing up to lynch SFS, Robz, or Insom tomorrow.  My best guess is that when Galz flips scum, that there is one partner in his target group, and one out of it.


Another interesting thing: at the start of this game, I went to go read a town-win on Mafiascum using this setup and it's pitiful how easy it was to find their scum.  I just read through the first day and immediately guessed 2 out of 3 and I don't even know those people.  You all are much harder to read, so congratulations.

I agree with his assessment as well. Do you honestly think both SFS and Insomniac are two of the town? If we lynched Insomniac and he flipped town would you not be quite highly suspicious of SFS? I mean, I never claimed I would run off and lynch him unconditionally, but yes, I would absolutely give it serious consideration.

Now, let me ask you a question:

After I flip town, who's scum?

Pretty defensive galz, we're currently lynching eevee if I can count.

Yeah, with my biggest scum read on the wagon of my biggest* townread.

I think you're mistaking "defensive" for "frustrated" - but at least Shraeye has a plan for the direction of the town if I'm lynched. The problem? All three of his sets contain two people that I think could be town (although on the flip side all three contain two that I think could be scum, so...).

I'm frustrated because I know I'm town. If I get lynched (even if I'm not the leading candidate, I've got an IC saying he's only voting me for the rest of the day) we're one more mislynch from a town loss. Do you know how many games I've won recently? Yeah, it's frustrating as hell.

[Insomniac]

As an IC, I apologize that my reads have been all over the place.  With the quick deadline, I often post all theories immediately once I have them because it's very illuminating to see who agrees with me and who doesn't.  Then I realize that there is something else that doesn't seem to line up.  I'm currently second-guessing myself with regard to Insom.  But I'm sticking with my Galz vote for now, and likely for the rest of the day.  It's of note to me that Galz is the most level headed here it seems.  I'm sticking with the idea that town are going crazy like me and scrambling to understand things, but mafia would be cool and not seem to stick out much.

I agree with Insom's idea that Galz seems to be gearing up to lynch SFS, Robz, or Insom tomorrow.  My best guess is that when Galz flips scum, that there is one partner in his target group, and one out of it.


Another interesting thing: at the start of this game, I went to go read a town-win on Mafiascum using this setup and it's pitiful how easy it was to find their scum.  I just read through the first day and immediately guessed 2 out of 3 and I don't even know those people.  You all are much harder to read, so congratulations.

I agree with his assessment as well. Do you honestly think both SFS and Insomniac are two of the town? If we lynched Insomniac and he flipped town would you not be quite highly suspicious of SFS? I mean, I never claimed I would run off and lynch him unconditionally, but yes, I would absolutely give it serious consideration.

Now, let me ask you a question:

After I flip town, who's scum?

Eevee, Insom, Frisk
Robz, Frisk, Insom
Robz, Insom, Eevee

in order from most to least likely.

Have not caught up, are you saying if Galz is town SFS is town?

[Eevee]

all aboard the Robz wagon. galz's ate really eorks on me.

[Robz888]

no one even read let alone considered my plan. makes me sad. looking forward to the post game discussions where you're actually honest though.

I read it, expressed qualified agreement, asked a lot of very specific questions, and didn't get any answers.  Part of that is my fault - I failed to hold folks accountable.

the questions were after I started the earlier explained phone posting phase. tbh, because Everyone else seemed to disagree with it, just didnt see it as productive.

I wish people agreed with me on Robz. don't know if I should vote for Galz, personally I don't think he is scum but shraeye suspectx him and I'm sort of the alternstice target.

I did misunderstand your argument, so that's fair. Your ic plan is still a bad one though, just not as bad as I first thought.

[Captain_Frisk]

no one even read let alone considered my plan. makes me sad. looking forward to the post game discussions where you're actually honest though.

I read it, expressed qualified agreement, asked a lot of very specific questions, and didn't get any answers.  Part of that is my fault - I failed to hold folks accountable.

the questions were after I started the earlier explained phone posting phase. tbh, because Everyone else seemed to disagree with it, just didnt see it as productive.

I wish people agreed with me on Robz. don't know if I should vote for Galz, personally I don't think he is scum but shraeye suspectx him and I'm sort of the alternstice target.

You being the alternate target doesn't seem like an especially good reason to lynch someone.

[shraeye]

Here are some of Galz's posts that feel very disingenuous to me.

What's the case against Galzria? He's the leading lynch candidate, but definitely on the townier side as far as I can tell. I do think an SFS lynch is superior there. Although, I can't really tell if SFS is super guilty of the posting style that Insomniac accused him of.

I'm also annoyed--although it's not his fault, IRL stuff--that Eevee is clearly not going to be around much more, and just disappearing for the rest of the day is probably a pretty good way to avoid getting lynched. At least it has been as we approached deadlines in other games. It would be one thing if I didn't suspect Eevee, but I do.

Then there's Frisk, and I've posted my suspicion of Frisk: his paranoia about the scumslip I did think was scummy, but I'm the only one who seems to have noticed it. Of course, some of the people may have not noticed it on purpose in order to protect Frisk, if he is scum.

That leaves Insomniac, who I don't have any specific suspicions of at the moment.

So I guess I'm like this right now:

Would lynch: SFS, Eevee

Might lynch: Frisk

Very hesitant to lynch: Galzria, Insomniac

PPE Looks like Frisk and Insomniac are on the same page as me.

This is the second time you've called me townie in the face of two votes on me. My original scumread on you (posted somewhere back a few pages now) was over your joining the party somewhat late last night (even though you appeared to be around the forums), and when you did post, you came swooping in to pick up and push my argument against Eevee's case almost word for word. I felt then like you were trying to get on my good side and that hasn't changed. You've said now that I appear "townie" to you, and while you're right, as scum you would know you were without having to provide a reason - which you haven't.

So would you please elaborate on your town read of me? I don't trust people who are right but give no reason for being so. Comes across as "I'm right and know I am so this won't get contested". Well, I want an actual reason please.

Robz did provide a reason for saying Galz was a town read.  This doesn't sound like town concerned that mafia is buddying up to them.  It sounds like mafiaGalz trying to encourage a town member to be his spokesperson.

Galz, what is your opinion of Eevee's alignment? What is your opinion of Eevee's argument?

I think Eevee is town. Too many people disagree with him (read: there MUST be scum disagreeing) for it to be likely that he's scum. Unless you believe scum is intentionally setting up to play both sides of an argument.

But (and I think I've been more outspoken than anybody else) I absolutely disagree with Eevee's proposal, as I stated (I believe) succinctly last night.

That said, I've seen 4 people disagree with Eevee:

Myself, Robz, Insomniac, Frisk.

Since I believe Eevee is town and I know that I am, I'm forced to believe at least 2 of Robz/Insomniac/Frisk are scum. From this, you'll see my current reads as above: Robz, Insomniac.

If you then read me as town, you must then assume that SFS is the final cylon?

That's leading Frisk. I did NOT say I read you as town. I said Robz/Ins were my top scum reads right now. Between you and SFS, I'm not sure. You seem as Snarky as always, and SFS reads IC as always (note: this feeling about him bit me in the posterior last blitz game). Neither attitudes or playsyles then read particularly scummy or townie to me one way or another compared to how I normally read you two.

This interaction with Frisk feels super weird to me.  I can't put my finger on exactly what it is.  His explanations feel more like banter and less like honest reads.

My top scum reads are actually Robz and Insomniac, in that order.

For Robz, I felt like his delay in getting to the thread was a LITTLE suspicious given how active he is, but more than that I felt like when he came in he parroted what I was saying about the problems with Eevee's proposal almost word-for-word. He may actually believe what he wrote, but it really came across as an attempt to saddle up along side me. It was apparent that most people were siding against Eevee on the issue (unsurprisingly - Eevee, I haven't ignored you, I simply think you're wrong.), and it seemed to me like scum!Robz wouldn't want to go against the grain there. Not to mention that Robz knows that if he can get my support behind him it'll be difficult to convince a majority to lynch him.

I don't know. It's not enough to plunk down a vote, but it made me uncomfortable.

Insomniac I got weird vibes from last night because he appeared to offer half-hearted counters to Eevee, using only numbers to back himself ("I know that I'm town so mathematically I have a 60% to lynch scum. IC's only have 50%"). His math is certainly correct, of course, but it felt to me like he was missing the larger point of lost information, and it felt like he was trying to take the "safe" argument, waiting until more people weighed in before really strongly choosing a side.

It just felt... Off. But it didn't feel as unnatural as Robz buddying did. What I mean by that is that I see town!Insomniac acting the way he did more often than I see town!Robz acting the way that HE did.

This is really an unfair assessment of Insom and Robz, in that Robz is scummy because he showed up and used the same argument Galz did to refute Eevee, and Insom is scummy because he was using a mathematical/logical argument to counter eevee.  I don't feel like Insom's counters were half-hearted at all.  He was refuting it in a diffrent way (as Galz "wanted" Robz to do) and is somehow also scummy for that.

The thing is Eevee, I see what you're driving for, but I think you're not understanding the value of the lost information. You simply cannot "recreate" or "psydocreate" the same feelings of scummy vs not-scummy behavior without real votes and stances and arguments that lead somewhere. "I would vote X" is such an easy thing to fake.

Further, while your premise that "in a vacuum, IC's would have a 50% chance"is accurate, we are not in a vacuum. And I think that what your suggestion boils down to is "Let's have the two sides debate, and the IC's pick the winner". It doesn't account for the fact that you're essentially turning the game into a straight oratorical contest, rather than what's scummy and what's not.

Robz is probably a better orator than I am. He likes to claim he's better than Insomniac (See: M-III, following M-II ). If he's scum, he can probably "out-debate" me - and there's not a lot I can do about it.

Further to that point, what if he's town as well? Do the IC's open the next day saying "Well Galz wasn't scum, so Robz must be" - or do they put it up to another debate?

I think that while, on the surface it might be 50/50, you're actually changing the nature of the game to take away information analysis, and in it's place those who are stronger orators will prevail - for whichever alignment they are on.

His paragraph here about Robz being a good orator makes it feel like he "knows" that Robz is not on his team, although I realize that isn't explicitly stated.

[shraeye]

As an IC, I apologize that my reads have been all over the place.  With the quick deadline, I often post all theories immediately once I have them because it's very illuminating to see who agrees with me and who doesn't.  Then I realize that there is something else that doesn't seem to line up.  I'm currently second-guessing myself with regard to Insom.  But I'm sticking with my Galz vote for now, and likely for the rest of the day.  It's of note to me that Galz is the most level headed here it seems.  I'm sticking with the idea that town are going crazy like me and scrambling to understand things, but mafia would be cool and not seem to stick out much.

I agree with Insom's idea that Galz seems to be gearing up to lynch SFS, Robz, or Insom tomorrow.  My best guess is that when Galz flips scum, that there is one partner in his target group, and one out of it.


Another interesting thing: at the start of this game, I went to go read a town-win on Mafiascum using this setup and it's pitiful how easy it was to find their scum.  I just read through the first day and immediately guessed 2 out of 3 and I don't even know those people.  You all are much harder to read, so congratulations.

I agree with his assessment as well. Do you honestly think both SFS and Insomniac are two of the town? If we lynched Insomniac and he flipped town would you not be quite highly suspicious of SFS? I mean, I never claimed I would run off and lynch him unconditionally, but yes, I would absolutely give it serious consideration.

Now, let me ask you a question:

After I flip town, who's scum?

Eevee, Insom, Frisk
Robz, Frisk, Insom
Robz, Insom, Eevee

in order from most to least likely.

Have not caught up, are you saying if Galz is town SFS is town?

Yes, I see that it looks that way, but I'm not convinced about the strength of my argument there.  My idea was that if Galz is town, because Eevee, Insom, Frisk, and Robz all expressed scumreads on SFS that both scum partners would be bussing another.  I realize that is actually probably the stronger way to do it.  The teams I'm still willing to rule out are ones that each person "called" (meaning I can't believe that scum would put both their actual partners on their scumlists).

That still leaves
SFS, Robz, Frisk (possible)
SFS, Eevee, Ins (which i think is unlikely)

[Eevee]

no one even read let alone considered my plan. makes me sad. looking forward to the post game discussions where you're actually honest though.

I read it, expressed qualified agreement, asked a lot of very specific questions, and didn't get any answers.  Part of that is my fault - I failed to hold folks accountable.

the questions were after I started the earlier explained phone posting phase. tbh, because Everyone else seemed to disagree with it, just didnt see it as productive.

I wish people agreed with me on Robz. don't know if I should vote for Galz, personally I don't think he is scum but shraeye suspectx him and I'm sort of the alternstice target.

You being the alternate target doesn't seem like an especially good reason to lynch someone.

I have 0% of flippibg scum.
id estimate galz has like 40% or so, ofc better than me but no
my preferrwd target.

[Captain_Frisk]

That still leaves
SFS, Robz, Frisk (possible)
SFS, Eevee, Ins (which i think is unlikely)

Your possible scenario is not.

[Galzria]

Shraeye, I was using Robz as an example of why Eevee's plan was flawed. It had nothing to do with him personally. And I'm sorry, but put yourself in my shoes. You know that you're town. You know that within the town you're the only person who could know that. Now, when somebody comes along expressing repeated belief in your towniness, how does that make you feel? Do you honestly go "Wow, that guy has really good reads"?

Personally I absolutely distrust that style of play. NOBODY, knows I'm town except myself. And the first few times he suggested that I was, he didn't offer any reason at all.

Regarding the exchange between Frisk and I, I *hate* people putting words in my mouth. I did not explicitly call him scum, and he turned around and claimed I thought he was town. This is absolutely, completely false, and yes, I take exception to it. He *could* be town, but he could also be Mafia. So much depends on the alignment of others. I would NOT lynch him today though, as I think I have much stronger reads. That in no way makes him town in my book though.

[Captain_Frisk]

Hey - who put forward the theory that SFS and Eevee can not be a scum team because they both agreed to the bonehead plan?

[Robz888]

Hey - who put forward the theory that SFS and Eevee can not be a scum team because they both agreed to the bonehead plan?

Not me. I think they could both be scum. Neither being scum would surprise me the most.

[ashersky]

Vote Count 1.8:

NO CHANGE

Eevee (3, u3): Jimmmmm, Robz888, Captain_Frisk
SwitchedFromStarcraft (0, u2): Robz888, Insomniac
Galzria (2, u3): shraeye, Eevee, shraeye, Insomniac
Insomniac (1, u2): shraeye, SwitchedFromStarcraft
Robz888 (2, u2): Galzria, Eevee

Not voting (0):

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Friday, November 16 at 9:00 p.m. forum time. -- That's in 2 hours.

[Eevee]

man I CANT WAIT for this game to be over. galz and robz, you are the guys I respect the most, I'll be bugging you until someone makes me realize why my plan is stupid. feel free to tell me to stfu if it gets annoying

[Insomniac]

man I CANT WAIT for this game to be over. galz and robz, you are the guys I respect the most, I'll be bugging you until someone makes me realize why my plan is stupid. feel free to tell me to stfu if it gets annoying

[Captain_Frisk]

You'd rather be right than win?

[Eevee]

if I wind up being todays lynch, fos on my entire wagon. guys who know me should probably
know better.

[Eevee]

You'd rather be right than win?

I'd rather realize why I'm wrong for future.
2% battery life left, got to go home don't want to miss the deadline.

[ashersky]

Day 1 ends Friday, November 16 at 9:00 p.m. forum time. -- That's in 92 minutes.

[Captain_Frisk]

Eevees frustration seems real, but that could be coaching from day chat.  If he's town, then I'm stuck with everyone else being scum.

We have 2 known townies voting for him, so this is good enough for me.  Should be around for deadline... Giving the boy a bath.

[shraeye]

Eevee's frustration does feel real to me, Galzria's does not.  Galz is the better lynch today in my opinion.

[Captain_Frisk]

Nearly everyone els