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[zahlman]

I'm losing game after game after game with horrible shuffle luck each time and it's just getting incredibly frustrating. It's gotten to the point where I'll be hurling obscenities at every other opponent - who totally don't deserve it - because I just can't deal with how my deck contains all the same cards but they're pulling megaturns and I'm not; or I can't hit $5 to save my life; or my two potions stick together all game, or I lose the curse split in spite of being the first one to buy a potion and the first to take Familiar, or the other guy is seemingly playing Vault every other turn when we both have huge decks in spite of him having only one Vault and what ought to be mediocre drawing power, or I have greater money density but just can't ever seem to afford Provinces/Colonies, or...

...and I'm pretty sure that if I'd been saving my logs, I could point to an example of every single one of those just from today. When things finally do work out, I'm tempted to draw the game out as sadistically as possible because I lust for revenge against opponents who never seem to have the decency to just pile out once they build their massive engine (not that I ever feel any better about it when they *do* just pile out).

Blah.

[Captain_Frisk]

+1 for writing what I feel about my recent fall to 41.

[greatexpectations]

my recent fall to 41.

such a rough life you lead frisky

[shark_bait]

I'm sure that you are truly having bad luck.  I get on streaks like that all the time.  But one thing to remember is that you see all of your luck because it's your deck.  What you often miss are times when your opponent also has bad luck.  What I like to try to do is to notice when my opponent also has miserable luck.  It makes things more manageable when I get it myself.  It's a bit harder to notice, but once you really start trying, you can start to notice the little things better.  It also helps you become a better player because you are more in tune with the status of your opponents deck.  You can in response know what to expect from his next few hands which helps in end-game situations, in regard to when he will play attacks, etc...

tl;dr:  Shit happens.  Try to make the best of it and try to make yourself a better player despite it happening.

[shark_bait]

my recent fall to 41.

such a rough life you lead frisky

Meme format -  First World Problems would be fitting here I think.

[zahlman]

What you often miss are times when your opponent also has bad luck.

I'm well aware of that. You have a point about deck-watching, too.

The strange thing is that my rank still seems to be rising despite what appears to be a horrible win ratio.

[jsh357]

I know how you feel.  I had made it all the way to Level 40 not long ago, went through a terrible streak down to the 20s again and took months to climb back. 

One thing I can suggest (you may be doing this already but if not, here it is) is to very carefully watch how many cards are remaining in your deck on turns that you play your key cards.  You mentioned games where an opponent gets Vault every turn, and while I'm sure sometimes it's due to luck, you have to remember that sometimes you trigger reshuffles on turns that you play important cards, ensuring you will not draw them on the next turn.  Even if you're extremely skilled this is so very easy to screw up.  Sometimes it's better not to play a card if it will trigger a bad reshuffle.

[Toskk]

What you often miss are times when your opponent also has bad luck.

I'm well aware of that. You have a point about deck-watching, too.

The strange thing is that my rank still seems to be rising despite what appears to be a horrible win ratio.

That's true-skill at work. As you play more and more games, the system gets a more and more accurate idea of the overall range of your rating. So initially your rating/level will be displayed at the low end of your overall rating range (as determined by true-skill), and as you play more and more games your displayed rating/level will move closer and closer to the mid-point of your (decreasing) overall point range.

[Kahryl]

I never hold rage-dialogue/rage-quits against my opponents any more, because of the rare but significant occasions I've been driven to same. Play enough kingdoms and the game will not only screw you, it will serially screw you.

[Captain_Frisk]

It's also important to realize that for every game you've been totally screwed, you've probably beaten an opponent who was similarly screwed.  You know those games where you go double witch, and they never collide, and you just play witch after witch after witch and win the curse split 8-2?

The joy you feel in winning that game is so much less than the frustration of being on the other side of someone who always gets their Embassy on the top of their deck, and plays it over and over and over again, Embassy -> Province -> Reshuffle; Embassy -> Province -> Reshuffle and has 5 provinces on turn 12.

[ehunt]

I have a serious addiction problem Dominionwise, but one rule that really helps me is that I have to step away from the computer when I get angry. When I quit dominion for several months, I came back with a "one game or two a day" mentality (which is long obsolete, but that's another story). I found that playing fewer games made me a lot less angry at the ones where I got unlucky.

[Lekkit]

I usually notes when I get really lucky or my opponent gets really unlucky. Most of the time when I think it's game deciding I point it out. I've met a few players who has told me that I gloat about it when I do, but mostly it helps keeping the spirits up. Especially when playing face to face. I recently won a small tournament. A lot of the games I played against opponents that I think are good ended with me on top due to luck.

Something to keep in mind, though, Is that you still have to know where to go from your double $5 during turn 3 and 4 (just an example). Sometimes it's as easy as buy two Mounebanks. But my point is that a lot of players are eager to blame a loss on baf luck, when they didn't play their best during the game, because they thouhjt they were allready beat.

[zahlman]

UGH, it just keeps coming, too. I opened Chapel-Silver, didn't draw the Chapel till turn 5... then I commented that I bet I'd draw Chapel-Silver-Silver-Silver-Copper next turn. And then I did.

And then after we shifted into a mad greening rush that left us with two Provinces, then he decided to pick up a Potion and go for Vineyards despite them not being worth very much... and he got more of them even though I had more Potions before he could Embargo them. And then I was drawing $7 on the non-potion turns constantly.

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201211/04/game-20121104-064725-e2c263a8.html

Unbelievable.

[Mic Qsenoch]

UGH, it just keeps coming, too. I opened Chapel-Silver, didn't draw the Chapel till turn 5... then I commented that I bet I'd draw Chapel-Silver-Silver-Silver-Copper next turn. And then I did.

And then after we shifted into a mad greening rush that left us with two Provinces, then he decided to pick up a Potion and go for Vineyards despite them not being worth very much... and he got more of them even though I had more Potions before he could Embargo them. And then I was drawing $7 on the non-potion turns constantly.

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201211/04/game-20121104-064725-e2c263a8.html

Unbelievable.

If you can't handle a game where shuffles significantly affect the outcome, you sure are playing the wrong game.

[TrojH]

UGH, it just keeps coming, too. I opened Chapel-Silver, didn't draw the Chapel till turn 5... then I commented that I bet I'd draw Chapel-Silver-Silver-Silver-Copper next turn. And then I did.

And then after we shifted into a mad greening rush that left us with two Provinces, then he decided to pick up a Potion and go for Vineyards despite them not being worth very much... and he got more of them even though I had more Potions before he could Embargo them. And then I was drawing $7 on the non-potion turns constantly.

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201211/04/game-20121104-064725-e2c263a8.html

Unbelievable.

Uh, you're going to hate me for this, but I wonder if the real reason you lost is because you had the "bad luck" to click "Chapel" on your first turn. With no real engine available, maybe it would have been best to open Silver/Moneylender and ignore the Chapel completely.

[DG]

I've had bad runs. It's very frustrating. Quite often though bad draws are a consequence of not playing the odds properly. It's very easy to make reasonable looking decisions that are actually second best when you're angry, frustrated, thinking about the last hand, thinking about what opponents have done, thinking about the ideal draw, not thinking about all the kingdom cards. It's then best to just play a few games and then call it a day, relax, and look at them again tomorrow

Yeah that chapel game is complete mess. Navigator/silver+bazaars is probably better than moneylender for a treasure based deck and then there's a dubious talisman + mining village strategy that might work. For game as played with those draws you were best off buying a navigator on turn 6 and a second gold on turn 8 instead of the province. If you know the deck is drawing badly then don't rush into an endgame that you can't sustain.

[ehunt]

this is going to sound like it's in jest but i mean it seriously - one other thing that helps is a good ragequit. if you had quit this game at chapel silver silver silver copper, you'd still be mad, but you'd have a lot less to be mad about! i love ragequitting.

i disagree with whoever said not to open chapel, definitely open chapel here.

[Powerman]

UGH, it just keeps coming, too. I opened Chapel-Silver, didn't draw the Chapel till turn 5... then I commented that I bet I'd draw Chapel-Silver-Silver-Silver-Copper next turn. And then I did.

And then after we shifted into a mad greening rush that left us with two Provinces, then he decided to pick up a Potion and go for Vineyards despite them not being worth very much... and he got more of them even though I had more Potions before he could Embargo them. And then I was drawing $7 on the non-potion turns constantly.

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201211/04/game-20121104-064725-e2c263a8.html

Unbelievable.

Uh, you're going to hate me for this, but I wonder if the real reason you lost is because you had the "bad luck" to click "Chapel" on your first turn. With no real engine available, maybe it would have been best to open Silver/Moneylender and ignore the Chapel completely.

What I have to ask, is how does a game with no attacks go 35 turns?  Although, I do think Chapel mightttt be slightly stronger than ML if drawn turn 3/4.

[zahlman]

What I have to ask, is how does a game with no attacks go 35 turns?

Sometimes both players feel compelled to duchy-dance, and then sometimes both players stall because of it.

[Davio]

One of the most frustrating things for me isn't the "Chapel on T5" kind of thing.

It's when I set up everything perfectly to safely end the game on a win next turn with anything but absolutely horrible shuffle luck, and then having horrible shuffle luck, like my 2 last Coppers and 3 Colonies instead of one of my 7 Hunting Parties.
Addendum: To be honest, I've had quite a lucky streak today. A lot of games could've easily gone the other way, yet I grabbed them from the clutches of defeat.

Our brain is also to blame. This is because when we start playing, we hope, and expect, to win. Especially when you've attained a 30+ ranking and a lot of the guys you face are below 30. You think: "My rating is higher, so I should win." This is false for three reasons.

The first is that the rating difference doesn't mean you'll win 100% of the time. It just means that you have a higher win expectancy on average. A single game doesn't care about averages. And it's nowhere close to 100% anyway.

The second is that the rating difference doesn't have any meaning when you're playing a mirror that 20-something players also understand. Often the question is asked: "What is the difference between a lvl X and a lvl Y player?" The answer is: Not that much, but still a lot. What I mean is, when you're a lvl 20 player, you probably already understand the bulk of Dominion strategy out there. If you quantify it in a simple example, a lvl 20 player might know 5 gigapawns of strategy info, a lvl 30 player might know 6 gigapawns. But that 1 gigapawn difference is enough for the lvl 30 player to consistently beat the lvl 20 on weird boards. How to do a Workshop/Gardens rush is contained within the first 5 gigapawns however.

The third is that you'll never know who's playing. I mean, I started over once when I got tired of my main account. I'm sure several other high level players have alts for when they don't want to play competitively and focus too much or something.

The ranking is just a guideline to put players of similar skill together, remember that.


Now, back to "expecting to win". When you expect to win, your brain doesn't register the win very well. Things you expect are easily forgotten. You don't pay any extra attention to things you expect that come true. When I walk into the door of my apartment I don't go: "Hey, that wall is white, I never noticed!" I notice it everyday, but I disregard it immediately. When you lose against a low level player, this is unexpected, so your brain goes: "What the hell? How did that happen?" And the loss releases more negative hormones than a win releases positive ones.

And besides expectancy, we just don't like losing, that's why we're all still playing, hoping to win once more.

[zahlman]

I love "gigapawn" as a unit of Dominion knowledge.

---

OMFG. I get 5 of the Cities and 5 of the Wharves and lose 49-17 to a guy playing the same strategy:

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201211/08/game-20121108-142454-3baf5c98.html

I mean, first-player advantage, sure, but that's just ridiculous. Just nothing ever connected at all.

[zahlman]

I just can't ever seem to hit $5 when it's really important. I'm seriously losing my mind here. I'll have a game where the one time in the first six turns I do get $5+, it's all together as $7, and then the KC is too tempting... "sure, I'll get this and then it'll make up for the $5 being late when I play it 3 times"... of course, that never actually happens, especially when every other buy has been Silver because I just can't get to $5 otherwise. And then the very next game, my opponent will hit $5 with Silver-Silver (actually Bridge-Silver, counting the Bridge as a straight $2 instead of $1 and a cost reduction, because the +buy was really irrelevant) five times in a row on an IGG board... and of course now my inability to hit $5 is snowballed with the Curses.

I just... ugh.

[Davio]

Luckily, the game doesn't last so long so you can easily go and play another.

I think all this strategy talk may have caused us to take Dominion more seriously than it's ever meant to be.
There's a reason why you can play a game in just 10 mins.

I mean, it has strategy, sure, but it's not <chess or insert other favorite deeply strategic game here>. Luck is a very important factor. You can't play a highly strategic game in under 10 minutes. Maybe you can, like Blitz chess games, but they're less strategic and focus more on nifty tactics; they're not the same as the full game.

So we have to conclude that Dominion is a game of luck and skill. I don't know exactly where it rates on the "luck vs. skill graph", but somewhere at that spot where if two differently skilled players play enough games you can draw meaningful conclusions from their results.

But enter randomness: Randomness has streaks. If you win ~75% of your games, it doesn't mean you will win exactly 3 out of 4 games. If you have won 3 in a row, you would be bound to lose. That's not how it works. In fact, winning a couple of games gives you a good feeling and can help your concentration which leads to better results. Losing on the other hand hurts concentration as you get frustrated so it's better to quit for some time after a losing streak than go on trying to "fix" it.

[zahlman]

... and how come I can't ever be the one who buys 3 Familiars by turn 7 despite sacrificing buying power by picking up Shanty Towns to draw them, plays them all on turn 8, and manages to pick one up in hand *again* on turn 9?

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201211/21/game-20121121-211123-cbc9bd8e.html

[Powerman]

... and how come I can't ever be the one who buys 3 Familiars by turn 7 despite sacrificing buying power by picking up Shanty Towns to draw them, plays them all on turn 8, and manages to pick one up in hand *again* on turn 9?

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201211/21/game-20121121-211123-cbc9bd8e.html

Shanty Town/ Potion is a good Familiar opening.  Plus, why'd you buy Pirate Ship?