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Author Topic: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!  (Read 37426 times)

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Graystripe77

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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #50 on: September 20, 2012, 07:52:03 pm »
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Announce date of fail: October 27th, 2012
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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #51 on: September 20, 2012, 08:22:00 pm »
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October 3rd

Based on current beta progress, the fact they've got a Q&A lined up and it being the same day of the week as the previous launch (IIRC)
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

aaron0013

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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #52 on: September 20, 2012, 08:42:11 pm »
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October 3rd

Based on current beta progress, the fact they've got a Q&A lined up and it being the same day of the week as the previous launch (IIRC)

Wish I could believe that...
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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #53 on: September 20, 2012, 08:48:11 pm »
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Personally, I think there's a case of blind leading the blind here. People voting November and beyond is pretty absurd, but because it's been happening, people are willing to do it because it doesn't look stupid any more.

Unless there's some major issue that arises, I don't see it not being out by the end of October. It's just, crazy if that happens.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

Fabian

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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #54 on: September 20, 2012, 08:50:00 pm »
+1

Personally, I think there's a case of blind leading the blind here. People voting November and beyond is pretty absurd, but because it's been happening, people are willing to do it because it doesn't look stupid any more.

Unless there's some major issue that arises, I don't see it not being out by the end of October. It's just, crazy if that happens.

I mean, thinking it'll be out by October is fine, and you might be right, and you might be a favorite to be right.. but calling anything else "absurd" is like super duper infinity absurd. You know this has been in the works for like 16* years by now right with extremely slow progress, and with like 10 major issues and a billion minor issues left to sort out?

* I think.
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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #55 on: September 20, 2012, 09:00:01 pm »
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I know the issues which are there probably better than anyone not on the Goko team, given I've been the one going through the bug reports and stuff. Maybe I'm being a bit too strong with my prediction there, but, just, for it to not come out in the next six weeks, when all of the big bugs have been sorted and the intent is to go into public beta next anyway, is just, how long can you wait with something like this?
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

Jive Junkie

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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #56 on: September 21, 2012, 02:26:37 am »
+2

Um... my October date was highly pessimistic, not optimistic.

Relative to this predicting group as a whole, though, you're optimistic :)

What do you mean Black-Friday-question-mark? Oh, wait. I screwed up. Black Friday is the 23rd this year. Can I change my prediction?

Not that it matters too much, but I actually said Nov. 13. Go November realists!

Changed!


Personally, I think there's a case of blind leading the blind here. People voting November and beyond is pretty absurd, but because it's been happening, people are willing to do it because it doesn't look stupid any more.

Unless there's some major issue that arises, I don't see it not being out by the end of October. It's just, crazy if that happens.

You're right, I definitely think it's the case of the blind leading the blind. Having my opening post predict November 20 has surely had some effect (note that it's right near the median). But, seeing as a lot of us didn't make the beta, all we have to go on are the tidbits the testers throw us, the nature of software releases in general (just look at Valve), and the way the first release went.

All signs point to DELAY, especially since if they ship another buggy pile of manure, their credibility will completely vanish. If you're right and all the major bugs have been worked out, and they're just polishing it now, I'd love being pleasantly surprised in October. But it would be disastrous if they rushed this thing out again, and my later release date prediction actually indicates optimism at their unwillingness to cave in to a silly marketing deadline a second time if the product isn't ready.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2012, 02:30:45 am by Jive Junkie »
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aaron0013

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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #57 on: September 21, 2012, 08:37:41 am »
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I know the issues which are there probably better than anyone not on the Goko team, given I've been the one going through the bug reports and stuff. Maybe I'm being a bit too strong with my prediction there, but, just, for it to not come out in the next six weeks, when all of the big bugs have been sorted and the intent is to go into public beta next anyway, is just, how long can you wait with something like this?

Cool! I haven't heard anything about public beta. From the time they went from closed to live, I thought they were skipping an important step.

But realistically, how is open beta going to be different than the real thing? It seems like it would have the same chance of the server being swamped and people hating their guts.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #58 on: September 21, 2012, 09:26:13 am »
+3

I predict today?  Do I win the thread?
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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #59 on: September 21, 2012, 09:42:36 am »
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I predict today?  Do I win the thread?

It remains to be seen.
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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #60 on: September 21, 2012, 09:51:21 am »
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I predict today?  Do I win the thread?

Quote from: rules
- Prediction must be posted at least 48 hours before any official release announcement is made, and at least 7 days before the actual release.
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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #61 on: September 21, 2012, 10:57:57 am »
+2

Quote from: rules
- Prediction must be posted at least 48 hours before any official release announcement is made, and at least 7 days before the actual release.

Everyone rejoices in their shared loss!
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

Captain_Frisk

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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #62 on: September 21, 2012, 10:59:22 am »
+1

Everyone rejoices in their shared loss!

It's possible that this works on multiple levels.
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Jive Junkie

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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #63 on: September 21, 2012, 11:05:26 am »
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Quote from: rules
- Prediction must be posted at least 48 hours before any official release announcement is made, and at least 7 days before the actual release.

Everyone rejoices in their shared loss!

Actually tdog would win with his prediction of September 29.

But since there has been no official announcement, and people have been reporting crazy bugs, this does not sounds like an official release. Seems like a mistake release, or a really clumsy transition into a public beta. Whatever the case, my faith in Funsockets Dominion is not exactly going up!
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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #64 on: September 21, 2012, 11:08:18 am »
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No, the predictions started on the 17th. That's less than 7 days before release.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

Jive Junkie

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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #65 on: September 21, 2012, 11:10:10 am »
+1

No, the predictions started on the 17th. That's less than 7 days before release.

Haha, good catch! If this is official (for the sake of online Dominion, I hope not), maybe they released early just to spite this thread ;)
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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #66 on: September 21, 2012, 11:27:23 am »
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Well, it's public beta. I'm still not sure if it was intended but we'll see.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

Insomniac

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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #67 on: September 21, 2012, 02:59:24 pm »
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Turns out it was intended, and you can give them money now even though all of the adventure act 2s are broken (except maybe base?) and all the act 1's are broken except for DA and Base. And even the act 2 you can play isn't fun.
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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #68 on: September 21, 2012, 03:33:34 pm »
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Adventures still have a number of kinks to be fixed, and it doesn't seem entirely consistent in what works and what doesn't.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

SharpWave

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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #69 on: September 21, 2012, 05:01:00 pm »
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TDog wins?
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Jive Junkie

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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #70 on: September 21, 2012, 05:07:13 pm »
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TDog wins?

Nope, it's just a public beta, not an official release. Though depending on how it goes, Tdog could be in good shape.
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Watno

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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #71 on: September 21, 2012, 05:10:59 pm »
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October 16th
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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #72 on: September 21, 2012, 06:20:02 pm »
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TDog wins?

Nope, it's just a public beta, not an official release. Though depending on how it goes, Tdog could be in good shape.

No, reread the TC's first post.

- Release is defined as when the game officially becomes available to the public for the second time (the first being in mid-August 2012), regardless of its condition or even if it needs to be taken down yet again.

It's a public beta, but it's officially available to the public, regardless of it's condition. Therefore, nobody wins.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

Jive Junkie

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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #73 on: September 21, 2012, 07:33:20 pm »
+1

TDog wins?

Nope, it's just a public beta, not an official release. Though depending on how it goes, Tdog could be in good shape.

No, reread the TC's first post.

- Release is defined as when the game officially becomes available to the public for the second time (the first being in mid-August 2012), regardless of its condition or even if it needs to be taken down yet again.

It's a public beta, but it's officially available to the public, regardless of it's condition. Therefore, nobody wins.

That's quibbling, and you know it. The spirit of the contest is the official release, not a beta, public or otherwise. I'll edit the text so rules lawyers will be happy.
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Tdog

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Re: The Goko Dominion Release Prediction Contest!
« Reply #74 on: September 21, 2012, 08:13:55 pm »
0

I claim a victory.
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