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Author Topic: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)  (Read 152841 times)

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Insomniac

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THERE WILL BE A DISCUSSION THREAD FOR THIS MAFIA. IF YOU DO NOT WANT OTHERS DISCUSSING THIS MAFIA DO NOT PARTICIPATE. YOU MAY NOT POST IN THIS THREAD WHEN DEAD WE ASK THAT YOU DO NOT READ THIS THREAD WHILE ALIVE THOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE ENFORCED


ALIVE
O
defAxxle
Dsell
eHalcyon

DEAD
Galzria - Vanilla Townie - Lynched Day 1
Robz888 - Vanilla Townie - Killed in Night 1
Captain_Frisk - Vanilla Townie - Killed in Night 1
jotheonah - Serial Killer - Lynched Day 2
michaeljb - Vanilla Townie - Killed in Night 2
Morgrim7 - Vanilla Townie - Lynched Day 3
Voltgloss - Mafia Goon - Lynched Day 4
yuma - Mafia Rolecop - Lynched Day 5
Eevee - Mafia Goon - Lynched Day 6


Its been a while since one started and with people getting eliminated from the first 2 I thought I would offer a third game of Mafia to the first 9 that attempt to sign up (assuming theres enough interest). Here are the rules and the potential roles (blatantly stolen from Mafia II).

As a twist on the first 2 IF 10 people sign up we will include the SERIAL Killer role

Mafia Ruleset

Game Rules:

General Gameplay and Etiquette:
1. You may not quote private Moderator-supplied information (either real or fabricated) of any kind. Paraphrasing (for role claims, etc.) is acceptable.
2. There is to be NO personal communication outside of the forum postings unless your role PM specifically allows it. Mafia members may communicate at night and during the confirmation stage.
3. If you have a role with a Night action your choices are due to me by the posted deadline. If I do not receive your choice via PM by the posted deadline you will forfeit your actions. In case of multiple submissions, the last valid one before the deadline will be used.
4. Roles with Night actions will not be able to submit an action on Night 0 (i.e. during the confirmation stage).
5. Any player with a Night action may instead submit a “No Action” PM to let the Mod know that you do not want to perform your expected action that Night phase.
6. As a general rule you should aim for one post every 48 hours, minimum, to keep the game moving.

Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:
1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline.
2. Once you have reached a simple majority no further unvoting will change someone’s fate. Further votes will also be ignored.
3. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
4. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName. Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
5. Please submit vote revocations as either Unvote: PlayerName or Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
6. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch.
7. This game will have 1 week deadlines. If a player or No Lynch does not have a simple majority at deadline, no lynch will occur, and the game will go into night.
8. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent.
9. Do not edit or delete posts. We don't want some players having more information than others.  If you want to clarify posts, feel free to double post.

Miscellaneous/Mechanics:
1. Bold, blue text is reserved for the Mod. No invisible/small text is allowed, nor is cryptography.
2. If you have an issue/problem with the game, please PM the Mod privately. Do not post issues/complaints in the game thread.
3. The Mod may make mistakes - please point out any mistakes gently. Mistakes will be corrected where possible, but sometimes mistakes are made that cannot be reversed. These will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. Please bold all requests to the Mod so that they don’t get missed.
5. Prods of missing players will be issued automatically after 72 hours of no activity or upon request after 48 hours of no activity. A prodded player has 48 hours to respond or risks replacement. A player who has been prodded 3 times is subject to replacement without further notice.
6. Rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, up to and including a Modkill.
7. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please post a notice to that effect in the thread. Treat this game as a commitment. Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging.


The Golden Rule:

Please remember that this is a game and your main objective is to have fun! Be considerate of each other, don’t get personal, and enjoy the game.


Game Setup
Game Setup information:

As there have been requests for more than 9 players the roles will be determined upon game commencement. I am open to suggestions for roles, and player count

The setup used for this newbie game is one of the ones given below. The setup is randomly determined, but is one of the 6 given here:
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Doctor.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Doctor, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Doctor.

If 10 people sign up: 1 Serial Killer

There will always be two mafia players and seven town players.

Here are all the role PMs that can be in the game:

-----------------------------------------

Mafia Goon
Welcome to Mafia II!

You are a Mafia, a Mafia Goon.

Your partner is __________, a Mafia Rolecop. You make speak with them during the pre-game and during the night phases.
(Any other communication outside of the thread with any other players is prohibited.)

Each night, you or your partner may send me the name of a player you would like to kill.

You win if the Mafia comprise at least half the town, or if nothing can prevent the same from happening.

-----------------------------------------

Mafia Rolecop
Welcome to Mafia II!

You are a Mafia, a Mafia Rolecop.

Your partner is __________, a Mafia Goon. You make speak with them during the pre-game and during the night phases.
(Any other communication outside of the thread with any other players is prohibited.)

Each night, you or your partner may send me the name of a player you would like to kill.

Each night, you may also send me the name of a fellow player. You will be told their role name.

You win if the Mafia comprise at least half the town, or if nothing can prevent the same from happening.

-----------------------------------------

Town Doc
Welcome to Mafia II!

You are a Townie, a Town Doc.

Each night, you may send me the name of a fellow player. You will protect that player from death.

You win when all of the Mafia are dead.

-----------------------------------------

Town Cop
Welcome to Mafia II!

You are a Townie, a Town Cop.

Each night, you may send me the name of a fellow player. You will be informed if that player is town or mafia.

You win when all of the Mafia are dead.

-----------------------------------------

Town Jailkeeper
Welcome to Mafia II!

You are a Townie, a Town Jailkeeper.

Each night, you may send me the name of a fellow player. That player will be protected from death, and will perform no night actions.

You win when all of the Mafia are dead.

-----------------------------------------

Town Vanilla
Welcome to Mafia II!

You are a Townie, a Vanilla Townie.

You win when all of the Mafia are dead.

-----------------------------------------

Serial Killer
Welcome to Mafia II!

You are a psychopath, a Serial Killer.

Each night, you may send me the name of a player you would like to kill.

You win everyone else is dead.

-----------------------------------------


TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2012, 01:10:06 pm by Insomniac »
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2012, 04:19:53 pm »

Well, I will of course play, with a couple caveats:

I won't feel bad if you reject my application because I'm too obsessed :P
If theory has a problem with Mafia continuing obviously I won't do it
I would prefer to actually include more than 9 players this time, if there is interest for that
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2012, 04:23:17 pm »

Well, I will of course play, with a couple caveats:

I won't feel bad if you reject my application because I'm too obsessed :P
If theory has a problem with Mafia continuing obviously I won't do it
I would prefer to actually include more than 9 players this time, if there is interest for that

I am of course fine with more than 9 and wouldn't want to run it if theory opposed. SINCE he gave us a dedicated forum for games that does not show up in recent form posts i suspect he has no issue.  But if he asks me to not run this I will cancel.

Robz of course you can play.

What number would you be happier with than 9 and do you have suggestions for Roles
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2012, 04:24:58 pm »

Please count me in as well

Edit (omg, I've forgotten what one feels like!)

Same caveats as Robz has.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

WanderingWinder

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2012, 04:35:03 pm »

I'm tentatively down to play, I'd prefer to have more than 9, and I'd prefer to do it... elsewhwere. Off these forums. But eh.

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2012, 04:39:39 pm »

I'd like to sign up!

The more the merrier.
Off-forums or On-forums is OK.
Robz is starting to scare me.
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Thisisnotasmile

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2012, 04:44:52 pm »

Not committing myslef yet, but if I'm dead in mafia I before this fills up I'd be tempted to join just to make some more enemies. And I'd much prefer a game with no size limits to allow anyone who wanted to play to be able to.
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theory

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2012, 05:43:54 pm »

Quote
TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
This made me laugh.

I don't have any objection to continuing to run Mafia games here.  But I'd like to be able to have a discussion topic for Mafia III, with the condition that everyone spoilers their posts.  Is that all right with you all?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2012, 05:50:35 pm »

Quote
TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
This made me laugh.

I don't have any objection to continuing to run Mafia games here.  But I'd like to be able to have a discussion topic for Mafia III, with the condition that everyone spoilers their posts.  Is that all right with you all?

I have stated in the past that I am fine with it. I believe a few others share this opinion, however I know that some are wary as well. Eh, up to you guys. I don't mind though.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2012, 05:52:50 pm »

It doesn't bother me the reason I played in Mafia II at all is because I think the community here is pretty solid. I don't suspect that people would cheat. I mean they are playing a game for fun.

Also, theory glad to have you weigh in, and yea I completely stole that part of the post from Axxle lol. He had it so I figured it might just be a good thing to have in general *shrug*
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

theory

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2012, 05:57:19 pm »

I didn't see it for Mafia II!  :P  I must have skipped over it.

How about this: let's make this game a test run.  Only sign up if you're willing to be the guinea pig for a game with a public yet spoilered discussion topic, and we can all discuss the experience afterwards.  If it wasn't a good experience then we'll scrap it for future Mafia's.
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theory

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #11 on: May 23, 2012, 05:59:17 pm »

Also, I'd like to have some clarity on how night actions work.  In what order do effects resolve?  If I am murdered by Mafia, do I still get my night action?  If the Jailkeeper jails the Cop and the Mafia murders the jailkeeper, does the Cop get "no effect"?
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #12 on: May 23, 2012, 06:04:03 pm »

Quote
TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
This made me laugh.

I don't have any objection to continuing to run Mafia games here.  But I'd like to be able to have a discussion topic for Mafia III, with the condition that everyone spoilers their posts.  Is that all right with you all?
Upvote upvote upvote.

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #13 on: May 23, 2012, 06:09:38 pm »

Also, I'd like to have some clarity on how night actions work.  In what order do effects resolve?  If I am murdered by Mafia, do I still get my night action?  If the Jailkeeper jails the Cop and the Mafia murders the jailkeeper, does the Cop get "no effect"?

These are actually up to the mod so I will clarify

1) In what order do effects resolve?  If I am murdered by Mafia, do I still get my night action? This would depend on the night action. If its  a cop style action does it really matter? If its a preventetive effect Jailkeeper doctor. Then yes. However since you can't target yourself with those abilities its not relevant unless there are multiple night kills

2) If the Jailkeeper jails the Cop and the Mafia murders the jailkeeper, does the Cop get "no effect"? Yes.

I will attempt to resolve all night actions simultaneously to the best of my abilities
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #14 on: May 23, 2012, 06:10:18 pm »

Quote
TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
This made me laugh.

I don't have any objection to continuing to run Mafia games here.  But I'd like to be able to have a discussion topic for Mafia III, with the condition that everyone spoilers their posts.  Is that all right with you all?
Upvote upvote upvote.

This, with my pleas for the condition once again... no dead mafia, no dead mafia, no dead mafia. Then if even people can't resist the theoretical "gain" from reading it really is quite minimal.
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def

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #15 on: May 23, 2012, 06:14:55 pm »

I'm in if it's ok that I never played before. :)
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #16 on: May 23, 2012, 06:17:20 pm »

Also, I'd like to have some clarity on how night actions work.  In what order do effects resolve?  If I am murdered by Mafia, do I still get my night action?  If the Jailkeeper jails the Cop and the Mafia murders the jailkeeper, does the Cop get "no effect"?

These are actually up to the mod so I will clarify

1) In what order do effects resolve?  If I am murdered by Mafia, do I still get my night action? This would depend on the night action. If its  a cop style action does it really matter? If its a preventetive effect Jailkeeper doctor. Then yes. However since you can't target yourself with those abilities its not relevant unless there are multiple night kills

2) If the Jailkeeper jails the Cop and the Mafia murders the jailkeeper, does the Cop get "no effect"? Yes.

I will attempt to resolve all night actions simultaneously to the best of my abilities

Actually I found this I'll follow this.

Def: Absolutely
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #17 on: May 23, 2012, 06:19:16 pm »

Few things:

1) As written, Cop investigating Serial Killer returns townie. I actually like it better this way though.
2) "Sane cop". If anyone ever tries to introduce Insane cop into a forum mafia game here I will hunt them down and kill them.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #18 on: May 23, 2012, 06:20:13 pm »

Quote
TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
This made me laugh.

I don't have any objection to continuing to run Mafia games here.  But I'd like to be able to have a discussion topic for Mafia III, with the condition that everyone spoilers their posts.  Is that all right with you all?
Upvote upvote upvote.

This, with my pleas for the condition once again... no dead mafia, no dead mafia, no dead mafia. Then if even people can't resist the theoretical "gain" from reading it really is quite minimal.

whats the condition?
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #19 on: May 23, 2012, 06:21:31 pm »

Quote
TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
This made me laugh.

I don't have any objection to continuing to run Mafia games here.  But I'd like to be able to have a discussion topic for Mafia III, with the condition that everyone spoilers their posts.  Is that all right with you all?
Upvote upvote upvote.

This, with my pleas for the condition once again... no dead mafia, no dead mafia, no dead mafia. Then if even people can't resist the theoretical "gain" from reading it really is quite minimal.

whats the condition?

Sometimes what's in my head when i'm typing doesn't exactly come out...

No mafia players who are dead posting in the discussion thread, revealing info.  ::)
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theory

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #20 on: May 23, 2012, 06:24:27 pm »

Does that restriction include vanilla townies?  Technically they have the same knowledge as any random townie, but I think they should also be restricted, because as anyone who reads the Mafia I quicktopic knows, dead vanilla townies are somewhat biased. ;)
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #21 on: May 23, 2012, 06:25:47 pm »

How about no dead players post in general? This is a request only as I can't enforce it and dead players are not in the game so I can't do anything game related to them
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

theory

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #22 on: May 23, 2012, 06:27:37 pm »

How about no dead players post in general? This is a request only as I can't enforce it and dead players are not in the game so I can't do anything game related to them
That's basically the gist of my and O's post, and I can enforce it :)
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #23 on: May 23, 2012, 06:29:59 pm »

Sounds good to me Ill update the initial post to have info on this
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #24 on: May 23, 2012, 06:46:50 pm »

I'm pretty interested in this, I've been enjoying following the other mafia games (well, just one of them now) though I've never played forum mafia before. The thing is, I spend a lot of time on the forum and it's been tough at times for me to even keep up with all the reading during really active times. So I can only imagine trying to keep up with other mafia games, my own mafia game, trying to formulate responses with lots of analysis, keeping up with, you know, Dominion strategy, and trying to play on isotropic. Oh yeah, and real life.

But I think I'm up for a challenge. :D

And yeah, Robz is insane.
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"Quiet you, you'll lynch Dsell when I'm good and ready" - Insomniac


Winner of Forum Survivor Season 2!

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #25 on: May 23, 2012, 07:04:47 pm »

Insomniac, I think an errant bracketed s has made half the intro post struck-through.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #26 on: May 23, 2012, 07:06:10 pm »

Insomniac, I think an errant bracketed s has made half the intro post struck-through.

He's changing the setup as we'll likely have more than 9-10 players.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #27 on: May 23, 2012, 07:09:07 pm »

Insomniac, I think an errant bracketed s has made half the intro post struck-through.

He's changing the setup as we'll likely have more than 9-10 players.

Oh, my error.  Sorry!
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theory

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #28 on: May 23, 2012, 07:15:48 pm »

The thing is, I spend a lot of time on the forum and it's been tough at times for me to even keep up with all the reading during really active times.

Rest assured, you are at least 16 days away from cracking the top 10, and well over a month away from topping WanderingWinder.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #29 on: May 23, 2012, 07:23:05 pm »

The thing is, I spend a lot of time on the forum and it's been tough at times for me to even keep up with all the reading during really active times.

Rest assured, you are at least 16 days away from cracking the top 10, and well over a month away from topping WanderingWinder.

I'd be comforted except that I've only been here 2 and a half months. XD
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #30 on: May 23, 2012, 07:29:12 pm »

The thing is, I spend a lot of time on the forum and it's been tough at times for me to even keep up with all the reading during really active times.

Rest assured, you are at least 16 days away from cracking the top 10, and well over a month away from topping WanderingWinder.
I'd be comforted except that I've only been here 2 and a half months. XD

Weak. I've been here two weeks less, and have over 11 days logged!
...
Oh. You mean I SHOULDNT be proud of that? :'(
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #31 on: May 23, 2012, 07:30:51 pm »

Well, with my death in 2, I will play. I will try no to kill myself again.  ;)
But yeah, I would love to
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #32 on: May 23, 2012, 07:41:09 pm »

The thing is, I spend a lot of time on the forum and it's been tough at times for me to even keep up with all the reading during really active times.

Rest assured, you are at least 16 days away from cracking the top 10, and well over a month away from topping WanderingWinder.
SOMEONE IS CHALLENGING ME???!!! WHO DARES???

In all seriousness, I remember passing theory and thinking that was a big deal. That was in the... 200s?

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #33 on: May 23, 2012, 07:47:54 pm »

The thing is, I spend a lot of time on the forum and it's been tough at times for me to even keep up with all the reading during really active times.

Rest assured, you are at least 16 days away from cracking the top 10, and well over a month away from topping WanderingWinder.

I'd be comforted except that I've only been here 2 and a half months. XD

Weak. I've been here two weeks less, and have over 11 days logged!
...
Oh. You mean I SHOULDNT be proud of that? :'(

WHAT. I take it ALL back and feel much better. ;)
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #34 on: May 23, 2012, 07:48:57 pm »

The thing is, I spend a lot of time on the forum and it's been tough at times for me to even keep up with all the reading during really active times.

Rest assured, you are at least 16 days away from cracking the top 10, and well over a month away from topping WanderingWinder.
SOMEONE IS CHALLENGING ME???!!! WHO DARES???

In all seriousness, I remember passing theory and thinking that was a big deal. That was in the... 200s?

I might be able to do it if I quit watching your videos and spent that time on the forum instead.  :P

Edit: ANYWAY MAFIA. I obviously don't spend as much time here as some.... ::) ...but no matter! I am in.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2012, 07:52:39 pm by Dsell »
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popsofctown

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #35 on: May 23, 2012, 09:20:55 pm »

Also, I'd like to have some clarity on how night actions work.  In what order do effects resolve?  If I am murdered by Mafia, do I still get my night action?  If the Jailkeeper jails the Cop and the Mafia murders the jailkeeper, does the Cop get "no effect"?

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Natural_Action_Resolution

Killing never stops people from performing actions, it happens at the end of the night, you could say.

Larger setups are generally better off closed.  That's where you don't tell the players in the game what roles are being used.  It's like Mafia I's 2 of 4, except instead of 12 possibilities explicitly defined there are a couple million possible in the mod's imagination. 
The major benefit to it is avoiding a situation where lots of vanilla townies get lynched and killed early on by happenstance, so halfway through the game optimal strategy becomes mass roleclaims, flooding the town with uniquely rolenamed confirmed innocents.

Might be a good idea to have me review a closed setup you plan on using, should that be the choice.  I don't plan on playing.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #36 on: May 24, 2012, 12:54:27 pm »

So we're up to 9 confirmed and 3 1 tentative for a max of 10 10 if all tentatives confirm. For the record this is the list I've seen

Confirmed
Robz
Galzria
O
def
Dsell
Morgrim7
Eevee
Captain_Frisk
michaeljb



Tentative
yuma
WanderingWinder
Thisisnotasmile




popsofctown: I will be taking you up on that offer. Thanks!

My thought is that I'll leave registration open for an additional 24 hours once we have 9 or 10 confirmed. With both Mafia I and II being in the night phase I suspect more people will have a chance to pop in here in the next 48. Once 9 or 10 are confirmed I will take all registrants that confirm in the 24 hour time space after that. (or as close to 24 hours as possible)

So those of you that are tentative please confirm or cancel your entrance so that I can have an accurate count
« Last Edit: May 25, 2012, 12:12:38 pm by Insomniac »
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #37 on: May 24, 2012, 12:58:10 pm »

It would be great if we could get up to 12 or 13 people. That's the number I usually play with IRL, and it's a lot of fun.

I don't mind if there are a lot of roles to choose from and it's random which ones you are using, but I think I would still like a list of all the possible roles for the game... It's up to you though!

I was browsing roles to see what would be fun things to play. This Serial Killer looks interesting. Might want to give him one free dodge from a night kill, though, as he looks hard to win with.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #38 on: May 24, 2012, 01:03:47 pm »

Its not entirely random which roles are using, I have a vague idea for every number of entrants.

Also I suspect that with the new way I proposed for entrants it will probably be 12+. but we could wait till There's 12 as well (From what I've seen 13 is the limit for non large games)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #39 on: May 24, 2012, 01:52:32 pm »

Serial killer is a TINAS role if ever there was one.

However, I am out of this game if there is going to be public discussion running alongside. Especially if that public discussion is going to be on these very forums and not hidden at all.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #40 on: May 24, 2012, 07:45:37 pm »

Yeah I'll play! I'll be in Vegas until the 13th but posting drunk isnt prohibited so why not.
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #41 on: May 24, 2012, 08:51:01 pm »

I'd like to play
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popsofctown

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #42 on: May 24, 2012, 09:26:41 pm »

Yeah I'll play! I'll be in Vegas until the 13th but posting drunk isnt prohibited so why not.

Drunkposting as mafia is undoubtedly risky.
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Kuildeous

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #43 on: May 24, 2012, 10:40:27 pm »

Yeah I'll play! I'll be in Vegas until the 13th but posting drunk isnt prohibited so why not.

Drunkposting as mafia is undoubtedly risky.

Or the greatest con ever!
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #44 on: May 25, 2012, 03:15:24 am »

Yeah I'll play! I'll be in Vegas until the 13th but posting drunk isnt prohibited so why not.

Drunkposting as mafia is undoubtedly risky.
But I'm town!
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #45 on: May 25, 2012, 11:23:30 am »

However, I am out of this game if there is going to be public discussion running alongside. Especially if that public discussion is going to be on these very forums and not hidden at all.

I didn't actually have time to read the whole thread when I wanted to sign up, but like TINAS says, I don't want to play if the discussion is going to be on these forums; if a quicktopic thread is started and the link is only given out privately (like the Mafia I discussion) I'll have no problem with that.

eh, screw it I want to play, public discussion or not.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2012, 04:14:19 pm by michaeljb »
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #46 on: May 25, 2012, 11:29:33 am »

I am a noob, but if there is room I'll play

Also - I am town
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #47 on: May 25, 2012, 01:36:52 pm »

I have absolutely no preference for how our game is discussed among non-players. But I do prefer to have as many people as possible playing, so if that's a sticking point for some people, I would meet their demands.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #48 on: May 25, 2012, 01:44:41 pm »

Robz's point is well made. Especially in light of how Mafia-I and Mafia-II are playing out. They could honestly be two COMPLETELY separate games. So the more people from each (and outside observers) that we can include the better. Let's get both the "We hate and mistrust everyone!" (Mafia-I) crowd mixed in with the "Let's over analyze everything to death until we know nothing!" (Mafia-II) crowd together! The crazier the better imo.  :P
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Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #49 on: May 25, 2012, 02:52:25 pm »

I shouldn't play another one... it makes me crazy and paranoid and is not going to be a good idea once I'm actually employed. On the other hand, I do want a chance to actually learn lessons from the ongoing train wreck that is Mafia II...

I guess I'll play.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #50 on: May 25, 2012, 03:00:37 pm »

On the other hand, I do want a chance to actually learn lessons from the ongoing train wreck that is Mafia II...

I was on the fence about joining, but this comment decided me.  Because I couldn't agree more with it (as applied to myself).

So I'll play if there's room.  If not, well, them's the breaks.  Hell, I might even try my hand at moderating one of these after Mafia II ends.  We'll see!
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #51 on: May 25, 2012, 03:56:55 pm »

Hell, I might even try my hand at moderating one of these after Mafia II ends.  We'll see!

I'll be in for that one, too.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #52 on: May 25, 2012, 04:03:33 pm »

So we're up to 10 confirmed and 1 tentative for a max of 11 if all tentatives confirm. For the record this is the list I've seen

Confirmed
Robz
Galzria
O
def
Dsell
Morgrim7
Eevee
Captain_Frisk
Jotheonah
Voltgloss



Tentative
WanderingWinder



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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #53 on: May 25, 2012, 04:14:06 pm »

However, I am out of this game if there is going to be public discussion running alongside. Especially if that public discussion is going to be on these very forums and not hidden at all.

I didn't actually have time to read the whole thread when I wanted to sign up, but like TINAS says, I don't want to play if the discussion is going to be on these forums; if a quicktopic thread is started and the link is only given out privately (like the Mafia I discussion) I'll have no problem with that.

eh, screw it I want to play, public discussion or not.

I changed my mind :p
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #54 on: May 25, 2012, 04:26:46 pm »

Yay more players! :)
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #55 on: May 25, 2012, 04:29:08 pm »

However, I am out of this game if there is going to be public discussion running alongside. Especially if that public discussion is going to be on these very forums and not hidden at all.

I didn't actually have time to read the whole thread when I wanted to sign up, but like TINAS says, I don't want to play if the discussion is going to be on these forums; if a quicktopic thread is started and the link is only given out privately (like the Mafia I discussion) I'll have no problem with that.

eh, screw it I want to play, public discussion or not.

I changed my mind :p

Good man!  ;D
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #56 on: May 25, 2012, 04:32:56 pm »

Fair warning:  while Mafia II is ongoing, I will be less active here than I was in the first two days of Mafia II.  (I'll certainly still BE active here, naturally.  No bozzballing for me!  :)
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #57 on: May 25, 2012, 04:55:58 pm »

We are now at 11 and 12 if Wandering Winder confirms. I will allow sign ups for 24 more hours then we will start
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #58 on: May 25, 2012, 05:17:04 pm »

Why not?  Actually, I can think of lots of reasons why not... but I'm in.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #59 on: May 26, 2012, 03:59:10 pm »

I'm out.

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #60 on: May 26, 2012, 06:03:14 pm »

Likewise I've changed my mind... I will be in if you take me. If not that is ok.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #61 on: May 26, 2012, 06:26:28 pm »

So we have 12? 12 would be awesomeness. You might consider having 3 mafia. Or 2 and the Serial Killer.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #62 on: May 26, 2012, 06:54:26 pm »

So we have 12? 12 would be awesomeness. You might consider having 3 mafia. Or 2 and the Serial Killer.
3 mafia sounds better to me. (Then again I've only ever played face to face mafia with doctor, cop, mafia and townies, all these other roles sound oh so confusing and hard.)
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #63 on: May 26, 2012, 06:59:23 pm »

So we have 12? 12 would be awesomeness. You might consider having 3 mafia. Or 2 and the Serial Killer.
3 mafia sounds better to me. (Then again I've only ever played face to face mafia with doctor, cop, mafia and townies, all these other roles sound oh so confusing and hard.)
I've also only played IRL, same roles, but I'm excited to try these other roles :D
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #64 on: May 26, 2012, 09:24:17 pm »

To be started later today I will be running my idea by pops for roles
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #65 on: May 26, 2012, 09:59:51 pm »

Ooh, I hope I'm a serial killer. Sounds unscrupulous. Free kill every night.. nobodies best interests but my own... Killer of Mafia and Town alike... Answers to no one...
 ;D  ;D  ;D
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #66 on: May 27, 2012, 02:10:49 am »

To be started later today I will be running my idea by pops for roles
Hmmm, in my time zone we are now past the day of this post, but have not started yet...how very suspicious. Can never trust insomniacs (see Fight Club and The Machinist for further evidence of this).

haha I'm just excited to get started and getting a little impatient I suppose ;D

edit: on another note, I've been reading a bit about other roles that exist and the one that has me the most intrigued is the rat--works with the mafia, but only wins if town wins. Seems like it would be very interesting to play, but also very difficult.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2012, 02:16:51 am by michaeljb »
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #67 on: May 27, 2012, 02:19:31 am »

I think he's waiting to hear from Popsofctown to review his setup.  :'(
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #68 on: May 27, 2012, 02:27:06 am »

I think he's waiting to hear from Popsofctown to review his setup.  :'(

I know. It's making me weep too that the game isn't going yet. On the other hand, it's important for pops to review. What if Insomniac tried to include the Suicide Bomber? I played with the Suicide Bomber once. The Suicide Bomber is a townsperson that kills someone as soon as he is killed. He is a very vengeful townsperson.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #69 on: May 27, 2012, 05:05:54 am »

To clarify I am indeed waiting for pops to review. And I will say there is no insane cop nor suicide bomber in my proposed set ups. I didn't feel like making people hate the mod :P
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #70 on: May 27, 2012, 05:10:09 am »

edit: on another note, I've been reading a bit about other roles that exist and the one that has me the most intrigued is the rat--works with the mafia, but only wins if town wins. Seems like it would be very interesting to play, but also very difficult.

Wait, what's to prevent the rat from revealing on day 1 and just saying "these are all the Mafia"?  If he wins with the town, there's no reason not to do that...
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #71 on: May 27, 2012, 07:56:02 am »

Well, because they might not believe him. Claiming is always tricky business.
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Thisisnotasmile

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #72 on: May 27, 2012, 07:59:24 am »

What incentive for claiming Rat would anybody have, other than the Rat?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #73 on: May 27, 2012, 09:20:10 am »

A mafioso might claim rat to lend support to his claim that X,Y, and Z are mafia, of course.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #74 on: May 27, 2012, 10:04:24 am »

Then if a Rat claims day 1, isn't the solution to just lynch the Rat?  If they're the Rat, you find that out after the lynch, and then lynch the identified Mafiosi on the following three days.  If they're Mafia, well, you lynched Mafia.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #75 on: May 27, 2012, 01:07:46 pm »

In light of Captain Frisk opening Mafia-I for Popsofctown (who is away on vacation), you may want to just roll Insomniac. Unless you really want his input, in which case I'm not sure how long we'll be waiting in limbo.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #76 on: May 27, 2012, 01:37:18 pm »

Roles PM's out. If you didn't get yours PM me. For now please do not talk as we will allow the Mafia until 5pm PDT to talk strategy.

There are 13 people playing.

Robz
Galzria
O
def
Dsell
Morgrim7
Eevee
michaeljb
Captain_Frisk
jotheonah
Voltgloss
eHalcyon
yuma
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars PREGAME UNDERWAY
« Reply #77 on: May 27, 2012, 07:26:53 pm »

So with all the crossed out text in the OP, I just want to ask about the roles for clarification...is it correct that there are 2 Mafia members, 1 Serial Killer, and 10 Townies? And then for the townies, power roles handed out with the same 2 of 4 system used in Mafia I? Or do we not get to know any details beyond our own roles?
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars PREGAME UNDERWAY
« Reply #78 on: May 27, 2012, 08:10:23 pm »

You walking around your homeless shelter that you all moved into when times got tough. While begging for twigs one day you saw that Insomniac had been stabbed with a branch in the back. He lay dead.

Day 1 has begun.


michaeljb - Its closed you don't get to know what the roles are
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #79 on: May 27, 2012, 08:15:29 pm »

 8) Didn't like that Insomniac guy anyway. *Searches his pockets*. Damn. I thought he had a food stamp on him. Looks like he was cleaned out before I arrived.  :'(
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #80 on: May 27, 2012, 08:18:56 pm »

So in light of the flavor, does that make our town ... a SHANTY TOWN?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #81 on: May 27, 2012, 08:23:09 pm »

Insomniac:

We *DO* get confirmation on the number of Mafia though, correct? I was led to believe we would have 3. Knowing how many there are could change how we look at votes (knowing how far from a potential hammer we are, etc). I understand if you can't tell us if there is a Serial Killer or not (SO TOWN, ASSUME THERE IS) however.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #82 on: May 27, 2012, 08:26:37 pm »

Insomniac - Thanks, good to know.

Galzria - You say he was cleaned out already, did someone already take that branch? I was thinking a branch would be nice decor for my corner of the shelter, but who can find a branch these days?

jonah - I'd sure say so.

So the killers aren't fans of people who don't/can't sleep at night...hmm...
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #83 on: May 27, 2012, 08:31:48 pm »

So the killers aren't fans of people who don't/can't sleep at night...hmm...

Or maybe they ARE people who can't sleep at night, and Insomniac was getting in their way. <Looks at Robz>
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #84 on: May 27, 2012, 08:34:04 pm »

With so much overlap with Mafia II it's gonna be hard for those of us still alive to keep each other's behavior straight and separate in the two games. I think out of fairness to the new people we should try not to reference the other games unless it's really pertinent.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #85 on: May 27, 2012, 08:36:14 pm »

Ahh, here we are again, Robz, Galzria, Voltgloss, and jotheonah. :)
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Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #86 on: May 27, 2012, 08:36:58 pm »

This closed game thing sounds really complicated, especially not knowing how big the mafia is. If they wont tell us that, we really need to coordinate carefully before casting pretty much any but the very first votes, right? Cant think of any power roles that would be too crucial to know about.. not until someone starts claiming them anyways?

If I'm wrong on the latter point, should someone who has played these kinds of games before inform us who havent what kind of roles are possible/usual?

//Fwiw regarding behaviour in other games, I've read most of mafia 1 but nothing of mafia 2.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #87 on: May 27, 2012, 08:37:13 pm »

With so much overlap with Mafia II it's gonna be hard for those of us still alive to keep each other's behavior straight and separate in the two games. I think out of fairness to the new people we should try not to reference the other games unless it's really pertinent.

Oh I agree. Same holds for the Mafia-I people. My comment wasn't a reference to Mafia-II, rather to the fact that Robz is always up late and does a lot of his posting at night.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #88 on: May 27, 2012, 08:41:48 pm »

Ahh, here we are again, Robz, Galzria, Voltgloss, and jotheonah. :)

I know! It's great! Most of the gang from Mafia-II (or the "Over-Analyze To Death Group"), AND many from Mafia-I (The "Point-Fingers And Attack Everyone Group")! Wheee! This should be entertaining at least.

(Note: The above feelings about each group are my own, and may not be shared by others.  ;D)
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #89 on: May 27, 2012, 08:49:04 pm »

Ahh, here we are again, Robz, Galzria, Voltgloss, and jotheonah. :)

MORGRIM IS MAFIA BECAUSE IT WORKED SO WELL THE LAST TIME oh wait

In all seriousness, the closed setup - and the vast array of roles that could be out there - leave me a bit at sea.  I mean, just taking a look at what the MafiaScum wiki calls the most common roles:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Roles

and my head is already spinning.  Vigilante Townies who can kill at night?  Bulletproof Serial Killers?  Millers who are innocent but get investigated as mafia?  Godfathers who are mafia but get investigated as innocent?  Yeesh.

Has anyone here played before in a large, closed game like this?  Any general comments from those experiences?

And Insomniac, here's a rules question:  When someone dies, is their alignment and/or role revealed?  (That's how it is in Mafia II, but I don't know how universal that is for forum Mafia.)
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #90 on: May 27, 2012, 08:51:07 pm »

This closed game thing sounds really complicated, especially not knowing how big the mafia is. If they wont tell us that, we really need to coordinate carefully before casting pretty much any but the very first votes, right? Cant think of any power roles that would be too crucial to know about.. not until someone starts claiming them anyways?

If I'm wrong on the latter point, should someone who has played these kinds of games before inform us who havent what kind of roles are possible/usual?

//Fwiw regarding behaviour in other games, I've read most of mafia 1 but nothing of mafia 2.

I'm hoping to know at least how many Mafia there are. But if not, we can roll with it. Assume 3, and if it's 2, great. I doubt VERY much you would see 4 in a 13 player game. I would also assume the worst though, and that there IS a Serial Killer. So that leaves 9 Town, 1 Serial Killer, 3 Mafia. As for roles, I would hope there were 2, but that is random, and we can't really know.

If you were to read Mafia-II, you would see that while we are doing much worse than Mafia-I, we are all much nicer about it.  ;D So maybe it's not such a good thing. I'm addicted though (much like Robz), and follow every post on each of them.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #91 on: May 27, 2012, 08:52:59 pm »

Ahh, here we are again, Robz, Galzria, Voltgloss, and jotheonah. :)

MORGRIM IS MAFIA BECAUSE IT WORKED SO WELL THE LAST TIME oh wait

In all seriousness, the closed setup - and the vast array of roles that could be out there - leave me a bit at sea.  I mean, just taking a look at what the MafiaScum wiki calls the most common roles:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Roles

and my head is already spinning.  Vigilante Townies who can kill at night?  Bulletproof Serial Killers?  Millers who are innocent but get investigated as mafia?  Godfathers who are mafia but get investigated as innocent?  Yeesh.

Has anyone here played before in a large, closed game like this?  Any general comments from those experiences?

And Insomniac, here's a rules question:  When someone dies, is their alignment and/or role revealed?  (That's how it is in Mafia II, but I don't know how universal that is for forum Mafia.)

Good post. My assumption was: Mafia, Mafia RoleCop, Townie, and a possible combination of: Serial Killer, Cop, Jailkeeper, and Doctor. Can it be confirmed that Volt is right and there COULD be anything from the Wiki list quoted above?
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #92 on: May 27, 2012, 08:56:44 pm »

Wow godfather looks just insane, how fun would that be to play?  ;D .. and being a Miller would be oh so sad.

Got to admit, getting pretty excited just reading about possible roles on wiki. Maybe it is more fun with more power roles after all :)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #93 on: May 27, 2012, 08:58:53 pm »

With so much overlap with Mafia II it's gonna be hard for those of us still alive to keep each other's behavior straight and separate in the two games. I think out of fairness to the new people we should try not to reference the other games unless it's really pertinent.

Oh I agree. Same holds for the Mafia-I people. My comment wasn't a reference to Mafia-II, rather to the fact that Robz is always up late and does a lot of his posting at night.

I was going to mention this--we just can't talk about the other games, and our behavior in them... at least until those games conclude. At that point, it might be useful information. I mean, you know, "Hey Voltgloss is playing differently, etc. etc..." could be helpful information. But it just isn't fair to discuss it until those games conclude, because that person can't defend his behavior without talking about the game, and that's illegal. Anyway, I doubt that discussion would even help us much in this first round, which is going to result in an even MORE random kill, since we have LESS info than usual.

I have played a lot of IRL mafia (never online until now), and I can do a post about some common roles I've heard of or seen. That mafiascum wiki page is a great starting place, although I know about a couple roles I haven't actually read on there. I'll do that post later (much later) tonight. As Galzria noted, I tend to post late at night (after midnight) and between noon and 5:00 PM.

In the meantime, it's probably most helpful if the new people make some posts so we can get a feel for how they behave.

And... I'm so excited for another mafia game! Welcome to everyone. (These forum games have coincided with my complete and utter collapse from a Level 42 great Dominion player to a level 37 only okay-ish Dominion player. I don't think the mafia games are to blame, as I started declining just before they started, but anyway, it's been nice to have something else to do as I try to figure out what is wrong with my Dominion game these days...)
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #94 on: May 27, 2012, 09:03:21 pm »

As my first game ever (real life or forum), this closed thing has me wondering what I've gotten myself into - so much reading to do!

Also - while I did re-open Mafia I for Pops because I got lucky and noticed the PM from him almost exactly @ 48 hours... I have company in town and will not be seriously active until Monday evening.

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #95 on: May 27, 2012, 09:03:50 pm »

Is there a list of possible roles that could be present in this game? I have no idea what sort of behavior to look for or be suspicious of if I don't know what they could potentially be, and that wiki list is an awful lot to try and keep track of. But...I guess I've said before that I'm up for a challenge...

Anyway, I'm definitely excited to play with such a dynamic group! :D
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #96 on: May 27, 2012, 09:05:29 pm »

Insomniac, another question:  What's our Day 1 deadline?
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #97 on: May 27, 2012, 09:06:00 pm »

and my head is already spinning.  Vigilante Townies who can kill at night?  Bulletproof Serial Killers?  Millers who are innocent but get investigated as mafia?  Godfathers who are mafia but get investigated as innocent?  Yeesh.

And here are some more, from ultimate warewolf:
http://boardgamegeek.com/filepage/35401/player-quick-reference-guide

There are expansions to Ultimate Warewolf as well, and my fav expansion card (though I never played with it) is a "Teenage Werewolf" who is who psyched to be werewolf that he must say the word "werewolf" during each day.  ;D Of course, for it to be useful at all, it has to have a chance of not showing up.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #98 on: May 27, 2012, 09:06:43 pm »

As my first game ever (real life or forum), this closed thing has me wondering what I've gotten myself into - so much reading to do!

Also - while I did re-open Mafia I for Pops because I got lucky and noticed the PM from him almost exactly @ 48 hours... I have company in town and will not be seriously active until Monday evening.

That's probably fine. Just check in every now and then and you shouldn't receive TOO much suspicion.  :P No, really though, I don't think we'll be ready to vote as a unit for 3-4 days at least, and possibly longer (I have to assume a larger game moves slower than a small one). So you shouldn't miss too much (although with how active this community is, I don't envy you the reading you'll have to do to get caught up).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #99 on: May 27, 2012, 09:08:20 pm »


And here are some more, from ultimate warewolf:
http://boardgamegeek.com/filepage/35401/player-quick-reference-guide

There are expansions to Ultimate Warewolf as well, and my fav expansion card (though I never played with it) is a "Teenage Werewolf" who is who psyched to be werewolf that he must say the word "werewolf" during each day.  ;D Of course, for it to be useful at all, it has to have a chance of not showing up.

Does that count as you saying "Werewolf" on day 1 then? <suspicious>
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #100 on: May 27, 2012, 09:10:03 pm »

@Robz, I think mafia is absolutely responsible for my decline from up and coming Lvl 22 to rapidly plunging Lvl 14.

I think in general I'm going to post a little less in this game, just because there's SO MANY of us. But we'll see if I actually have the willpower to follow through on that.

Also, since Mafia II started I've been essentially unemployed, so lots of posting. But starting Tuesday I have a 9-5 job, so less so.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #101 on: May 27, 2012, 09:14:38 pm »

Uh, yeah... let's all agree to do posts that are somewhat shorter than the Mafia II posts...
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #102 on: May 27, 2012, 09:15:14 pm »

Uh, yeah... let's all agree to do posts that are somewhat shorter than the Mafia II posts...

No books?  ;)
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #103 on: May 27, 2012, 09:24:26 pm »

Uh, yeah... let's all agree to do posts that are somewhat shorter than the Mafia II posts...

Agreed.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #104 on: May 27, 2012, 09:27:03 pm »

Uh, yeah... let's all agree to do posts that are somewhat shorter than the Mafia II posts...

No books?  ;)
No epistles? hahaha

I would bet that Duchess (the one that murdered pops and Axxle) has killed Insomniac too. The Duke is most likely somewhere in this homeless shelter.
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I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #105 on: May 27, 2012, 09:29:59 pm »

Uh, yeah... let's all agree to do posts that are somewhat shorter than the Mafia II posts...

No books?  ;)
No epistles? hahaha

I would bet that Duchess (the one that murdered pops and Axxle) has killed Insomniac too. The Duke is most likely somewhere in this homeless shelter.

+1 for word usage.

Sadly, as far as I can tell, none of us are Duke's. I haven't checked def, O, or eHalcyon though.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #106 on: May 27, 2012, 09:32:08 pm »

Already lots of conversation... I read bits and pieces of both Mafia I and II but didn't fully keep up.

Closed game format is daunting.  :o

Is there any "required reading" I should look into, being a mafia newbie?  I mean, I've played some IRL but not a lot, and never online.

And on the Serial Killer role -- that one kills every night, alongside the Mafia, right?  So even though it's a closed game, we should know by tomorrow.  Right?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #107 on: May 27, 2012, 09:33:01 pm »

Uh, yeah... let's all agree to do posts that are somewhat shorter than the Mafia II posts...

No books?  ;)
No epistles? hahaha

I would bet that Duchess (the one that murdered pops and Axxle) has killed Insomniac too. The Duke is most likely somewhere in this homeless shelter.

+1 for word usage.

Sadly, as far as I can tell, none of us are Duke's. I haven't checked def, O, or eHalcyon though.
Highly suspicious of Morgrim now, conspiring against the town!
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #108 on: May 27, 2012, 09:33:55 pm »

Already lots of conversation... I read bits and pieces of both Mafia I and II but didn't fully keep up.

Closed game format is daunting.  :o

Is there any "required reading" I should look into, being a mafia newbie?  I mean, I've played some IRL but not a lot, and never online.

And on the Serial Killer role -- that one kills every night, alongside the Mafia, right?  So even though it's a closed game, we should know by tomorrow.  Right?

Assuming the Killer and/or Victim are not Jailed. Or the victim healed by the Doctor. Or (and I haven't fully read up on other roles) some other crazy thing.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #109 on: May 27, 2012, 09:34:04 pm »

You'd think living in shelters we would have some inkling of what they are for! Perhaps there are ruins somewhere nearby??? Anyway it does appear that we have entered some pretty Dark Ages. :-\ I don't mind begging for sticks so much having to fear for my life is going a bit too far!
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #110 on: May 27, 2012, 09:34:27 pm »

Uh, yeah... let's all agree to do posts that are somewhat shorter than the Mafia II posts...

No books?  ;)
No epistles? hahaha

I would bet that Duchess (the one that murdered pops and Axxle) has killed Insomniac too. The Duke is most likely somewhere in this homeless shelter.

+1 for word usage.

Sadly, as far as I can tell, none of us are Duke's. I haven't checked def, O, or eHalcyon though.
You keep postin' Galzria...
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #111 on: May 27, 2012, 09:35:18 pm »

Already lots of conversation... I read bits and pieces of both Mafia I and II but didn't fully keep up.

Closed game format is daunting.  :o

Is there any "required reading" I should look into, being a mafia newbie?  I mean, I've played some IRL but not a lot, and never online.

And on the Serial Killer role -- that one kills every night, alongside the Mafia, right?  So even though it's a closed game, we should know by tomorrow.  Right?

We should. Edge cases:

SK and mafia target the same person, jailkeeper blocks one or both of them (randomly), mafia kills the SK (randomly (actually, if that happens, does the SK still get his kill? Insomniac?)), other night role that can kill like vigilante, multiple mafia families.
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #112 on: May 27, 2012, 09:35:23 pm »

Already lots of conversation... I read bits and pieces of both Mafia I and II but didn't fully keep up.

Closed game format is daunting.  :o

Is there any "required reading" I should look into, being a mafia newbie?  I mean, I've played some IRL but not a lot, and never online.

And on the Serial Killer role -- that one kills every night, alongside the Mafia, right?  So even though it's a closed game, we should know by tomorrow.  Right?

Assuming the Killer and/or Victim are not Jailed. Or the victim healed by the Doctor. Or (and I haven't fully read up on other roles) some other crazy thing.
Or the Serial Killer chooses not to kill that night, right?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #113 on: May 27, 2012, 09:35:31 pm »

Highly suspicious of Morgrim now, conspiring against the town!

Nah. As a fellow Solo-Challenge host, Morgrim is too nice to be Mafia.  ;D ;D ;D
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #114 on: May 27, 2012, 09:37:45 pm »

Highly suspicious of Morgrim now, conspiring against the town!

Nah. As a fellow Solo-Challenge host, Morgrim is too nice to be Mafia.  ;D ;D ;D
You really should be willing to explore other options too, though.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #115 on: May 27, 2012, 09:38:25 pm »

You keep postin' Galzria...

Wait... what comes after Explorer!?! Uh-oh. Maybe I need to keep quiet before I indict myself.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #116 on: May 27, 2012, 09:38:45 pm »

Highly suspicious of Morgrim now, conspiring against the town!

Nah. As a fellow Solo-Challenge host, Morgrim is too nice to be Mafia.  ;D ;D ;D
Do not worry, I do not suspect you for calling me nice this time. ;)
Logged
"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #117 on: May 27, 2012, 09:38:59 pm »

Highly suspicious of Morgrim now, conspiring against the town!

Nah. As a fellow Solo-Challenge host, Morgrim is too nice to be Mafia.  ;D ;D ;D
You really should be willing to explore other options too, though.
Trying to salvage some useful discussion out of this?
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #118 on: May 27, 2012, 09:39:40 pm »

Highly suspicious of Morgrim now, conspiring against the town!

Nah. As a fellow Solo-Challenge host, Morgrim is too nice to be Mafia.  ;D ;D ;D
Do not worry, I do not suspect you for calling me nice this time. ;)
They're working together!!

:P
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #119 on: May 27, 2012, 09:41:10 pm »

Ok, I've never used an avatar on this board, but I think I might get one. That will make it slightly easier to keep all these voices straight. (hint, hint to everybody else)
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #120 on: May 27, 2012, 09:42:04 pm »

Ok, I've never used an avatar on this board, but I think I might get one. That will make it slightly easier to keep all these voices straight. (hint, hint to everybody else)
I'm ahead of the curve 8)
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #121 on: May 27, 2012, 09:42:32 pm »

Ok, I've never used an avatar on this board, but I think I might get one. That will make it slightly easier to keep all these voices straight. (hint, hint to everybody else)
I'm ahead of the curve 8)
But yeah, I agree it sounds like a good idea.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #122 on: May 27, 2012, 09:44:27 pm »

Ok, I've never used an avatar on this board, but I think I might get one. That will make it slightly easier to keep all these voices straight. (hint, hint to everybody else)
You are right. Where can I get a good download for a Dominion card, say, Haggler?
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #124 on: May 27, 2012, 09:47:10 pm »

That's where I got the artwork for Wharf, then just cropped it.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #125 on: May 27, 2012, 09:49:05 pm »

Ok, I've never used an avatar on this board, but I think I might get one. That will make it slightly easier to keep all these voices straight. (hint, hint to everybody else)

Putting a dominion card as my avatar is risky! A lot of the cool ones could make me look suspicious! :P

*rules out Scheme, Swindler, Mountebank and most every other attack card*
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #126 on: May 27, 2012, 09:49:19 pm »

Looks like this is a bit higher quality, but when reduced to avatar size I don't think it'll matter too much.
http://www.dominiondeck.com/cards/haggler
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #127 on: May 27, 2012, 09:50:01 pm »

Ok, I've never used an avatar on this board, but I think I might get one. That will make it slightly easier to keep all these voices straight. (hint, hint to everybody else)

Putting a dominion card as my avatar is risky! A lot of the cool ones could make me look suspicious! :P

*rules out Scheme, Swindler, Mountebank and most every other attack card*
I hope I look innocent enough?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #128 on: May 27, 2012, 09:51:28 pm »

Hmm, Avatars are a good idea. Who's idea was that? +1 to someone.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #129 on: May 27, 2012, 09:51:52 pm »

Hmm, Avatars are a good idea. Who's idea was that? +1 to someone.

Aww, crap. I'm the Duke. POST POST POST POST POST.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #130 on: May 27, 2012, 09:51:56 pm »

Ok, I've never used an avatar on this board, but I think I might get one. That will make it slightly easier to keep all these voices straight. (hint, hint to everybody else)

Putting a dominion card as my avatar is risky! A lot of the cool ones could make me look suspicious! :P

*rules out Scheme, Swindler, Mountebank and most every other attack card*
I hope I look innocent enough?
Too cute and cuddly, clearly overcompensating for how nefarious you really are.
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #131 on: May 27, 2012, 09:52:39 pm »

Hmm, Avatars are a good idea. Who's idea was that? +1 to someone.
Speaking of, it looks like yours isn't working--I'm seeing the symbol indicating a bad image link...
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #132 on: May 27, 2012, 09:53:21 pm »

Hmm, Avatars are a good idea. Who's idea was that? +1 to someone.

I am a candle.  Bask in my light, ye folks of the Dark.   

Galzria, your image appears to be broken.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #133 on: May 27, 2012, 09:53:54 pm »

Hmm, Avatars are a good idea. Who's idea was that? +1 to someone.

I am a candle.  Bask in my light, ye folks of the Dark.   

Galzria, your image appears to be broken.

Trying to fix
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #134 on: May 27, 2012, 09:54:25 pm »

It was my idea. I claim your +1. Also I can't figure out what size and file type this thing needs to be.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #135 on: May 27, 2012, 09:55:43 pm »

Hmm, Avatars are a good idea. Who's idea was that? +1 to someone.

I am a candle.  Bask in my light, ye folks of the Dark.   

Galzria, your image appears to be broken.

Trying to fix

Fix? No fix...  :'(
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #136 on: May 27, 2012, 09:56:07 pm »

It was my idea. I claim your +1. Also I can't figure out what size and file type this thing needs to be.

I believe it resizes automatically, and it should accept most image types.  Mine is a PNG.  I didn't upload though.
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #137 on: May 27, 2012, 09:56:33 pm »

It was my idea. I claim your +1. Also I can't figure out what size and file type this thing needs to be.
Small, and image. I'm so helpful...

OK I've checked mine now, it's a 152x152 jpeg.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #138 on: May 27, 2012, 09:57:32 pm »

Hai guys!

I'm back from a backpacking Trip.

I'm not mafia.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #139 on: May 27, 2012, 09:59:31 pm »

Ok, I've never used an avatar on this board, but I think I might get one. That will make it slightly easier to keep all these voices straight. (hint, hint to everybody else)

Putting a dominion card as my avatar is risky! A lot of the cool ones could make me look suspicious! :P

*rules out Scheme, Swindler, Mountebank and most every other attack card*
I hope I look innocent enough?

For now, yes...but tell me, Eevee, do you tend to be happy at night time? Hmmmm??

http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/197.shtml
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #140 on: May 27, 2012, 09:59:46 pm »

Hai guys!

I'm back from a backpacking Trip.

I'm not mafia.
No one can afford backpacking or taking trips in these dark times! Except maybe someone with mafia connections...
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #141 on: May 27, 2012, 10:02:08 pm »

Ok, I can live with this logo. Oh, and O's Mafia. 100%. As noted, not only could nobody afford backpacking trips without Mafia connections, anybody who DID go backpacking would have EASY access to a STICK. O is Mafia.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #142 on: May 27, 2012, 10:05:59 pm »

If it's any defense, the second day of the trip was cancelled due to heavy snow. I learned something important: Don't backpack in heavy snowfall.

 
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #143 on: May 27, 2012, 10:10:03 pm »

Learning is also something that doesn't happen in these dark ages. You just keeping digging yourself a bigger hole ;D
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #144 on: May 27, 2012, 10:10:31 pm »

(but seriously, yeah backpacking in heavy snowfall sounds unpleasant)
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #145 on: May 27, 2012, 10:10:57 pm »

Ok, Avatar'd and ready to go.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #146 on: May 27, 2012, 10:12:51 pm »

Can't...get...avatar...to...work....

100x100? Or something else?
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #147 on: May 27, 2012, 10:14:23 pm »

I finally just uploaded it to tinypic and plugged in the url.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #148 on: May 27, 2012, 10:17:03 pm »

But enough of this technical talk. Let's get to the finger-pointing. Galzria seems awfully anxious to get this thing off the ground, throwin his accusations round and round. Suspicious character right there.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #149 on: May 27, 2012, 10:17:16 pm »

I finally just uploaded it to tinypic and plugged in the url.

Thanks! Worked perfectly!

....unless you were just trying to get on my good side...  ???
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #150 on: May 27, 2012, 10:19:05 pm »

Obviously. Making friends is the most important thing in mafia. The object of the game is to have the most friends.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #151 on: May 27, 2012, 10:21:32 pm »

But enough of this technical talk. Let's get to the finger-pointing. Galzria seems awfully anxious to get this thing off the ground, throwin his accusations round and round. Suspicious character right there.

Oh I'll never deny being suspicious. Mafia like to keep suspicious people around. The longer I can avoid lynching from the town itself, while still staying suspicious enough in the Mafia's eyes to warrant value, the better the town will do overall in the end since they have a guaranteed +1 vote on their side.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #152 on: May 27, 2012, 10:23:02 pm »

But enough of this technical talk. Let's get to the finger-pointing. Galzria seems awfully anxious to get this thing off the ground, throwin his accusations round and round. Suspicious character right there.

Oh I'll never deny being suspicious. Mafia like to keep suspicious people around. The longer I can avoid lynching from the town itself, while still staying suspicious enough in the Mafia's eyes to warrant value, the better the town will do overall in the end since they have a guaranteed +1 vote on their side.

Besides, isn't being suspicious more fun than being boring? And I think we've all learned that the Mafia are the most boring unsuspecting people. So who here has been the LEAST suspicious. I point my finger at them.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #153 on: May 27, 2012, 10:50:02 pm »

Obviously. Making friends is the most important thing in mafia. The object of the game is to have the most friends.

*narrows eyes Leonardo DiCaprio style*
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #154 on: May 27, 2012, 10:52:55 pm »

Obviously. Making friends is the most important thing in mafia. The object of the game is to have the most friends.

*narrows eyes Leonardo DiCaprio style*
Ooh, he's pretty good at this game. Or at least, he was the second time he played. [/Scorsese references]
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #155 on: May 27, 2012, 10:57:32 pm »

Is there a place to get a pic that you do not need to give away info?
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #156 on: May 27, 2012, 10:59:12 pm »

Google image search with link to picture? That's what I did.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #157 on: May 27, 2012, 11:05:31 pm »

Is there a place to get a pic that you do not need to give away info?

Your current image is broken because you're not linking to the actual image file.  Try this:

http://dominion.diehrstraits.com/scans/hinterlands/haggler.jpg

But it's not going to be cropped...
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #158 on: May 27, 2012, 11:18:08 pm »

Sorry to sound ignorant, bu how do I crop this?
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I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #159 on: May 27, 2012, 11:26:27 pm »

Download it, if you're on a Mac use Preview, on a PC you can just use Paint. Then you'll have to re-upload it.

There might be some place online to crop it, but I don't know of any off the top of my head.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #160 on: May 27, 2012, 11:59:09 pm »

Oh I'll never deny being suspicious. Mafia like to keep suspicious people around. The longer I can avoid lynching from the town itself, while still staying suspicious enough in the Mafia's eyes to warrant value, the better the town will do overall in the end since they have a guaranteed +1 vote on their side.

Trying to walk a fine line between the Town and the Mafia, eh?  What role does THAT sound like?  :)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #161 on: May 28, 2012, 12:06:51 am »

Oh I'll never deny being suspicious. Mafia like to keep suspicious people around. The longer I can avoid lynching from the town itself, while still staying suspicious enough in the Mafia's eyes to warrant value, the better the town will do overall in the end since they have a guaranteed +1 vote on their side.

Trying to walk a fine line between the Town and the Mafia, eh?  What role does THAT sound like?  :)

I'm sure I don't know. ;) But since I'm the Duke, and I'm outside the jurisdiction of Kingdoms in Mafia-I and Mafia-II, I fully acknowledge that I am the murderer of Popsofctown and Axxle. All other deaths I'm innocent of (including the most recent, Insomniac). I just can't help it! The Duchess and I are in love, and they kept stealing her away. We came to this Shanty Town together, thinking if we abandoned all our worldly Possessions, we would finally be left in piece!
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #162 on: May 28, 2012, 12:21:08 am »

Oh, well. Paint is not working, not letting me upload it. It was worth a shot, though.

Back to Mafia. The Duchess must be the murderer of Insomniac.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #163 on: May 28, 2012, 12:26:15 am »

Oh, well. Paint is not working, not letting me upload it. It was worth a shot, though.

Back to Mafia. The Duchess must be the murderer of Insomniac.

I'll have to talk with her...

In all honesty, I'm just keeping things light until everyone has had a chance to check in. The list of names is daunting to keep track of, but I think we still haven't heard from def or yuma. Don't wanna jump in too much until everyone is on the same page. Plus, I want to hear back from Insomniac on earlier setup questions.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #164 on: May 28, 2012, 12:34:13 am »

Oh, well. Paint is not working, not letting me upload it. It was worth a shot, though.

Back to Mafia. The Duchess must be the murderer of Insomniac.

Nah, Paint works fine.  Here:

http://i46.tinypic.com/2v823y0.png

 :)
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #165 on: May 28, 2012, 12:35:00 am »

Ahh, here we are again, Robz, Galzria, Voltgloss, and jotheonah. :)

MORGRIM IS MAFIA BECAUSE IT WORKED SO WELL THE LAST TIME oh wait

In all seriousness, the closed setup - and the vast array of roles that could be out there - leave me a bit at sea.  I mean, just taking a look at what the MafiaScum wiki calls the most common roles:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Roles

and my head is already spinning.  Vigilante Townies who can kill at night?  Bulletproof Serial Killers?  Millers who are innocent but get investigated as mafia?  Godfathers who are mafia but get investigated as innocent?  Yeesh.

Has anyone here played before in a large, closed game like this?  Any general comments from those experiences?

And Insomniac, here's a rules question:  When someone dies, is their alignment and/or role revealed?  (That's how it is in Mafia II, but I don't know how universal that is for forum Mafia.)

Yes

Deadline: 1 Week So June 3


Jotheonah
Quote
We should. Edge cases:

SK and mafia target the same person, jailkeeper blocks one or both of them (randomly), mafia kills the SK (randomly (actually, if that happens, does the SK still get his kill? Insomniac?)), other night role that can kill like vigilante, multiple mafia families.

Yes
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #166 on: May 28, 2012, 12:40:47 am »

Oh, well. Paint is not working, not letting me upload it. It was worth a shot, though.

Back to Mafia. The Duchess must be the murderer of Insomniac.

Nah, Paint works fine.  Here:

http://i46.tinypic.com/2v823y0.png

 :)
Thanks!!!!!
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #167 on: May 28, 2012, 12:42:23 am »

Insomniac, while you're on, can we get clarification on roles? At least a pool of everything that COULD be in the game? It seems there are a ton on the wiki link most of us don't even know to watch for.

Also, do we know how many Mafia there are (so we can avoid putting anybody in a hammer situation)?
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #168 on: May 28, 2012, 12:53:36 am »

will be spending the next 26 hours (sadly not a typo) travelling via plane, will need the wireless on air to work to be able to post. (dont know if this was a necessary announcement, a part of me just wanted to whine about having a 26 hour flight (two stopovers though, i guess airports. usually have internets these days)
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #169 on: May 28, 2012, 01:00:51 am »

There are 3 Mafia.

I will not list the roles that are available but there is nothing too crazy I promise.

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch

(13) Everyone - Not Voting
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #170 on: May 28, 2012, 04:02:39 am »

There are 3 Mafia.

I will not list the roles that are available but there is nothing too crazy I promise.

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch

(13) Everyone - Not Voting


Cool! Okay, here are some thoughts on roles and such:

We have 13 people minus 3 mafia. That leaves 10 people. I would guess that at least half of them--maybe exactly half--have to be vanillas. They don't have to be, I suppose, but that's my guess. That leaves 5 people with unspecified special roles. Also, I assume one of the mafia is a specialty role, like Mafia Rolecop.

Jailkeeper, Doctor, Cop: These are the roles that have been used in the other games. I think people are pretty familiar with them. I doubt we have all 3 in the game--they are rather strong--but possibly 2 of them. There are also twists on them, like the Mad Doctor, who kills his target 50% of the time rather than saving it. Who knows if Insomniac went that route.

Doublevoter: This is a weak-ish, but cool, special role. The Doublevoter gets to cast 2 votes during the lynch. Depending on how Insomniac structures it, it can be really easy to figure out who the DV is, making him sort of an obvious mafia target, but... it's interesting.

Shield: Or any other role where the person gets one free "life" in the night. We might have something like that.

Lovers or Couples: I've played with these people once. There are 2 of them. They know who each other are. When one dies, they both die (either during lynch or at night). Other than that, they are just townies. The good thing for them is that they have someone they know they can trust, so they have more info right off the bat. The problem for them is they really have to watch out for each other, and if one says, "I am one of the Couple!" it's really easy for the mafia to score a free double kill in the night.

Serial Killer, Mole, WhatHaveYou: I doubt we have this, if there are truly 2 mafia. 4 killing bad guys seems like a lot. But maybe! These people are part of their own faction and generally have to survive to the end. Neither the mafia nor the town can win until the Killer dies.

Vigilante: This is a townie night killer. He gets to kill someone in the night. He wants to go after people he suspects, obviously, or not use his power. If we have 3 mafia and no other killing role, this might be a logical inclusion.

Those are some of my thoughts. I am sure there are like a million other possibilities.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #171 on: May 28, 2012, 07:47:08 am »

There's also Miller, a townie who reads as a mafia when investigated. Some people suggest claiming right off the bat is good Miller play, though it can also get you lynched day one.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #172 on: May 28, 2012, 08:49:55 am »

Wow, first day of playing and there are already 3 new pages of info to read. Not sure what I got myself into here.

Thought I would check in and say hi fellow townspeople. Great idea on the avatars. I already had one. As you can see it is of a shark attached to a balloon chasing scientist. Isn't science fun?

My hope for this game is to be as clear as possible in my communication as such I think I'll end each post with this: who I suspect, who I don't suspect and who I am voting for, if anyone. Anyone else not mentioned is neutral (to keeps things simpler I am always going to include myself in the neutral position).

Suspect: No one
Don't suspect: No one
Vote: none
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #173 on: May 28, 2012, 09:49:58 am »

Wow, first day of playing and there are already 3 new pages of info to read. Not sure what I got myself into here.

The good news is that it was 2 pages of avatar discussion - I am now avatar'd up as well.
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def

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #174 on: May 28, 2012, 10:56:14 am »

Oh guys, what have I gotten into here? I went to bed yesterday when the thing hasn't even started, and now it's 3 or 4 pages already. At least mostly no 1000-words posts, but I'm sure that's soon to follow.

For the avatar thing - if everyone of you got one, I'm distinguished by having none. :)

For newbie advice: do you think it's better to get an overview of what mass of roles are possible, or of only the most common ones, or don't care at all? The twists Robz posted, like mad doctor, and other things I read on the wiki, like (in)sanity, leave me confused, because this way you can't be sure of anything?
But I'm pretty sure that if this is a true Dominion-Mafia game, there just has to be a Jack-of-all-trades!
Or a Goon, Governor, Oracle and Thief.
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def

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #175 on: May 28, 2012, 04:11:00 pm »

Yeah, sure, and when I'm here, nobody talks AT ALL. Which timezones are you in? I'm GMT+1.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #176 on: May 28, 2012, 04:15:00 pm »

U.S.A. Central time here.
The reason why nobody has been talking is, well, there is nothing to say.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #177 on: May 28, 2012, 04:17:29 pm »

GMT-6 (Mountain Standard Time).

More newbie advice requests -- a quick overview of the lingo, please?  In Mafia I and II people talk about bandwagons and hammers being dropped, which I understand from having read a few of the articles on the mafiascum wiki.  Are there other terms we should know?
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #178 on: May 28, 2012, 04:19:38 pm »

we have to get the ball rolling somehow though. i just dont have any suspicions yet, everyone seems friendly and townish.. false security?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #179 on: May 28, 2012, 04:19:53 pm »

Yeah, sure, and when I'm here, nobody talks AT ALL. Which timezones are you in? I'm GMT+1.

Sorry, you missed the party. If my Avatar doesn't give it away, I live about 15 minutes from DougZ.  (Sunnyvale, CA here).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #180 on: May 28, 2012, 06:59:29 pm »

Dear Journal,
Not much talk in the town today. Everything seems so calm; there seems to be no suspicion about anyone. No idea who is Mafia yet, so us townies must be on our guard. The Duke and Duchess are curently residing at the Baron's Estate.
Today I was asked by the Alchemist to be his Apprentice, but I declined. There is too much going on  with the murder and all, and I think th only reason why the Alchemist wants an Apprentice is because he wants someone to look after his Apothecary shop so he can take a vacation on an Island. Earned 5 Coppers today from the Coppersmith...
Logged
"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #181 on: May 28, 2012, 07:54:41 pm »

US Eastern time here (GMT -5?)

It does indeed seem pretty quiet.  I'm assuming that its because of the long weekend and most of us were probably eating burgers and enjoying life outside.  Hopefully it will be more exciting tomorrow.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #182 on: May 28, 2012, 10:49:37 pm »

Day 1 is the worst. You have no real option but to poke at molehills until you see a mountain, which you almost certainly made up. But suggest not killing someone and boy do you get jumped on ;)

But there are strategies. Pick somebody, hard target them, shake them up, see what they say or do. Skimming some mafia scum games, I expect the game will be more fun if we all play boldly. Don't let yourself get so terrified of being the day 1 lynch that you don't talk or take any risks.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #183 on: May 28, 2012, 11:51:26 pm »

I say we kill Robz... out of sympathy for him. He's in too many of these anyways.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #184 on: May 28, 2012, 11:58:47 pm »

I say we kill Robz... out of sympathy for him. He's in too many of these anyways.

My +1 is for the joke, not because I want to kill Robz.

But maybe we should kill Robz...

Aside: Um, hey, what are all your preferred pronouns?  I don't want to refer to someone as "he" when she is a "she".  Or even an "it", if it prefers.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #185 on: May 29, 2012, 12:19:59 am »

I say we kill Robz... out of sympathy for him. He's in too many of these anyways.

Blatantly stolen argument from another game. O is a bandwagon'er. Kill him:

 
Uh, why?

Because you're too crafty for your own good.
And anybody who can be involved in Mafia-I, Mafia-II, Mafia-III, Resistance, AND Isodom 5 can't be trusted.
 ;)
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #186 on: May 29, 2012, 12:21:16 am »

Ok. No more cross-game posting for me. Even in complete jest.  8)
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #187 on: May 29, 2012, 01:33:12 am »

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch - Deadline July 3, 2012
Not voting(13) - Everyone
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #188 on: May 29, 2012, 01:48:49 am »

having this many players makes lynching really hard (how are we supposed to get 7 of us to vote for someone when there is 0 information about anyone). i dont expect anyone to claim any roles out of thin air either (i mean please dont, sounds like a terrible play to me) so i guess everyone should make semi-meaningless posts like this until someone says something suspicious? idk, lynching anyone feels soo far away right now but obviously we have to kill someone.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #189 on: May 29, 2012, 01:53:37 am »

I once again claim Jester.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #190 on: May 29, 2012, 02:02:56 am »

having this many players makes lynching really hard (how are we supposed to get 7 of us to vote for someone when there is 0 information about anyone). i dont expect anyone to claim any roles out of thin air either (i mean please dont, sounds like a terrible play to me) so i guess everyone should make semi-meaningless posts like this until someone says something suspicious? idk, lynching anyone feels soo far away right now but obviously we have to kill someone.
Basically. The first person to die will be someone who had the strongest straw-man case brought against them. Rarely will that be Mafia. What we learn, is how/when people voted. Why they made the case for/against. Did they say one thing but do another?

Example of Mafia move:

"My case against X is A, B, and C. I've just got a strong feeling, they've been playing suspicious all game. I'm ready to vote whenever (or at listed time)"

That sets up being able to drop the lynch vote, while having the defense "Well, I said I was going to". Always a Mafia move? Of course not. But we need to watch closely for any hedging. Don't let people present a possible defense before they're ever suspected of guilt. Make them own their words.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #191 on: May 29, 2012, 09:59:46 am »

So - @ the risk of looking suspicious, and in the interest of getting things started rather than another few days of poking, I just searched the thread for the post counts. (Disclaimer - this includes pregame posts)

Username   Post Count (5/29)
Galzria   37
michaeljb   23
jotheonah   15
Morgrim7   12
MrEevee   11
Dsell   11
Robz   10
Voltgloss   9
O   9
eHalcyon   9
Captain_Frisk   4
def   3
yuma   2

Using this as reference: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=How_to_Win_as_Mafia:_Calculated_Inaction

I am going to VOTE: Galzria, based purely on his higher than average post count.

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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #192 on: May 29, 2012, 10:09:05 am »

my read of galzrias general forum behaviour is that he is just a talkative person and likes to post a lot, so i wouldnt hold that against him. i'd actually go for an entirely opposite direction and propose lynching you, def or yuma. how can we know anything about a guy who isnt willing to help us by posting?
Vote: yuma, just to make the quiet people feel the heat & realize they need to come out of their shell.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #193 on: May 29, 2012, 10:21:57 am »

my read of galzrias general forum behaviour is that he is just a talkative person and likes to post a lot, so i wouldnt hold that against him. i'd actually go for an entirely opposite direction and propose lynching you, def or yuma. how can we know anything about a guy who isnt willing to help us by posting?
Vote: yuma, just to make the quiet people feel the heat & realize they need to come out of their shell.

I had actually considered doing the same - but I'm willing to give a pass for weekends in general, and long weekends especially.  There also wasn't a whole lot to discuss - although hopefully this changes now!
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #194 on: May 29, 2012, 10:42:09 am »

Dear Journal,
The town exploded todey after the secret meeting. At the meeting, all of us townies voted on who to publicly lynch. Now, there are two votes already and I can feel more coming. And just to think, we were all so quiet before! Best not wallow in our grief, though, we must be prepared for hard times to come. The two votes cast today were as follows: The Duke, who murdered Axxle and popsofctown, and another person (of whom I do not know the loyalties[by that I mean loyalty to us, the Townies, or the mafia]) who has not spoken much.
I will remain non-voting for the moment, at least until I have more information. I find I unwise to jump to any conclusions at present.
With the five Coppers I earned yesterday I have decided to buy a Merchant Ship. When it comes in, I should be at least two coins richer. I have also decided to ask the Alchemist if he will look over declining his Apprenticeship yesterday. I think now that bed and board may be invaluable; I do not feel right in this homeless shelter...something sinister resides here...the Mafia...us townies need to avoid them...
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #195 on: May 29, 2012, 11:29:32 am »

In the interest of generating more discussion (so us townies can start getting reads on everyone) I'm also going to vote: yuma.

Hopefully this works in generating some talk, I'm sure things will be more interesting once stuff is actually happening.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #196 on: May 29, 2012, 11:34:44 am »

So - @ the risk of looking suspicious, and in the interest of getting things started rather than another few days of poking, I just searched the thread for the post counts. (Disclaimer - this includes pregame posts)

Username   Post Count (5/29)
Galzria   37
michaeljb   23
jotheonah   15
Morgrim7   12
MrEevee   11
Dsell   11
Robz   10
Voltgloss   9
O   9
eHalcyon   9
Captain_Frisk   4
def   3
yuma   2

Using this as reference: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=How_to_Win_as_Mafia:_Calculated_Inaction

I am going to VOTE: Galzria, based purely on his higher than average post count.

Oh man. If I'm gonna be guilty for talking a lot, I'll never make it past the first rounds of these games.  ;) On the other hand, Whooo! First vote baby!  ;D

Honestly, Eevee has the right of it. My posts per day is at 5.7, and the only person I can think of off hand that comes up higher is WW. So yeah. Not to mention my closing in on 14 days logged online since I registered on March 26, 2012, 02:35:18 pm. Yikes.  ??? ??? ???

Anyway, rest assured, I most certainly am not Mafia. Though I really wish I WAS in this game... With so many juicy targets to go after...  ;D
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #197 on: May 29, 2012, 11:35:00 am »

Haven't had time yet to read everything in full, but I am a tad worried about VOTES being cast around so quickly.  Suspicions are fine, even strong suspicions, but do we really want to have votes on the table so soon?  Are we not worried about votes piling in so quickly that the Mafia are able to sneak the hammer on a Townie before we really get the discussion going?

Yes, Day 1 is the hardest day to lynch Mafia because we're flying so blind, but moving quickly to a lynch doesn't seem the right approach to me.  Rather, get some suspicions out there, and then see how people react.  Maybe, just maybe, you'll see something in the way people react that could up the chance of your lynch target being Mafia.

And even if we DON'T hit Mafia on day 1, we'll still have generated a decent log of chatter that could prove useful for us going forward.  Y'know, like on day 2 or 3 when someone might be wondering "hmm, maybe X and Y are part of the Mafia team," the more posts we have from X and Y the better we can analyze that.  But if we move too quickly through Day 1 we deny ourselves the chance to get some substantive posting in Day 1.

With that in mind, my suspicions currently weigh towards those who have voted early - Captain Frisk, eevee, and michaeljb.  Why vote so early, rather than simply expressing strong suspicions?  Won't expressing strong suspicions generate the same level of discussion from/about your targets, without risking the possibility of an accidental bandwagon getting hammered by the Mafia?  (Note that there's a two-vote bandwagon ALREADY!  Bandwagons can ramp up surprisingly fast!)  Those are the questions I'd like to hear answered, and others' thoughts as well. 

Also FYI, I will be very busy due to work from now to tomorrow night (EDT) and so probably unable to post substantively again until then.
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #198 on: May 29, 2012, 12:05:23 pm »

Well I figured 7 votes is quite a few for a lynch, I didn't really think there was much chance of a bandwagon piling up too quickly and yuma getting lynched before much discussion happened--but as you say Voltgloss, "Bandwagons can ramp up surprisingly fast!". I'm just gonna say I don't know how true this is, I've played Mafia a few times IRL, and this is my first forum game so I don't have a good feel for how quickly a bandwagon can get going. If it gets out of hand before we've heard from yuma I'll unvote.

Obviously I don't want yuma to get lynched before having a chance to defend himself, and I really didn't think the chance of that was high by casting only the second vote.

As I said, I was hoping to generate more discussion, which has worked! Sort of (you at least now have reason to be suspicious of a few people so we have something to work with now, even though I didn't really get my desired result of the less talkative posting--though to be fair on that front it's only been half an hour since I voted :P ).

Anyway, once we hear from yuma I'll happily unvote, maybe for my intended goal def would have been a better voting target to avoid this bandwagon issue. I won't unvote right away though--with only 2 of 7 needed votes, I still see the lynching as a ways off, and we haven't heard from yuma yet.

Maybe expressing strong suspicions will generate the same level of discussion, but I do doubt it would have the same impact as vote--heck, it's stirred up more discussion from you than suspicion would have, right? Yours seems to be the first really substantive post we've had, and that's good for us townies, isn't it?
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #199 on: May 29, 2012, 12:12:16 pm »

Agreed with MichaelJB - actually voting is going to bring out more talk than vague suspicion. 

I also researched some outside f.ds mafia games to determine whether or not early voting was or was not uncommon.  After scouting 3 threads - I figured early voting was not out of line... here's an example: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=22046

Of course, I because both Michael and Eevee both voted for yuma, I suspect them!  Michael for being the #2 poster and bandwagoning. 

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def

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #200 on: May 29, 2012, 12:47:32 pm »

Of course, I because both Michael and Eevee both voted for yuma, I suspect them!  Michael for being the #2 poster and bandwagoning.

So I'll just suspect you for suspecting them for voting early, that sounds nice. :)

Consent in the other games so far was that not lynching first day gives the mafia a free kill and we have the same situation again the next day, apart from information some roles could gather, so no use to do so.
If we can get a discussion going to create some suspicion, good, if not, it's still best play to lynch randomly to create information. A bit bandwagoning, while risky, might help here, because with one vote, noone feels forced to react, but with two or three, maybe. Is there anything wrong with this reasoning?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #201 on: May 29, 2012, 12:53:19 pm »

I'm gonna suspect Voltgloss because he gave "reasons" to be quieter and not say much for the next day and a half, allowing for the town to dig it's own holes.

I'm not buying the convenient "I'll be busy with work until tomorrow night". I demand the truth!
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #202 on: May 29, 2012, 12:58:37 pm »

Well don't know if there's much I can say to defend myself here that I didn't already say--I voted yuma because for having the lowest post count, but like I said def probably would have been the better choice to avoid the bandwagon issue, while still calling out the quiet ones.

As I understand it, changing my vote once a little pressure is applied to me isn't the right move (don't the Mafia like to be crowd-pleasers to avoid suspicion?), so I'll stick with it until we hear something from yuma.

If I were mafia (I'm not :) ) I feel that it would be pretty poor play to bandwagon this early--I just voted for yuma hoping to get some activity; Mafia would want to get yuma lynched, and I honestly didn't think my second vote was very threatening to that end (though I am inexperienced and as Voltgloss said bandwagons can build quickly, so the idea that the second vote is no big deal could just be me being noobish). Wouldn't it be more prudent for the Mafia to wait until someone already has a few votes on them before they join in?
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #203 on: May 29, 2012, 01:06:03 pm »

Haven't had time yet to read everything in full, but I am a tad worried about VOTES being cast around so quickly.  Suspicions are fine, even strong suspicions, but do we really want to have votes on the table so soon?  Are we not worried about votes piling in so quickly that the Mafia are able to sneak the hammer on a Townie before we really get the discussion going?

Some people may want to vote quickly so that we don't end up having to read novels before we have any real information.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #204 on: May 29, 2012, 01:20:34 pm »

Haven't had time yet to read everything in full, but I am a tad worried about VOTES being cast around so quickly.  Suspicions are fine, even strong suspicions, but do we really want to have votes on the table so soon?  Are we not worried about votes piling in so quickly that the Mafia are able to sneak the hammer on a Townie before we really get the discussion going?

Some people may want to vote quickly so that we don't end up having to read novels before we have any real information.

Hey! Better to read 'em than to write 'em.  :-\

In all seriousness, (and more in response to Michael), as my first ever game (RL or Forums) is into day 3 (Mafia-II), I've learned 3 big things:

The "I'm new" argument, doesn't work so well. The game is pretty straight forward. Don't read too much into hard strategy. This game is about instinct and constant analyzing.

The only person who actually knows what their assigned role is, is the person themselves. All we can do as outside observers is take our best guess. But be aware of how and WHAT somebody who is accused is saying. Because if they are innocent, they were working with that piece of information the whole time.

Lastly, people like to make strawman cases. It's the best way early to nettle people. Like calling you out for bandwagoning. At this point, it really isn't an issue, as you've noted. But never get defensive! Defensive play feels negative, and will just bring more/harsher criticism, often unwarranted.

Oh, and DON'T lie. Town or Mafia, that'll get you lynched real quick. Everything you post can be cross-referenced with what you posted before. People won't let you slide.

Ok, done writing "Galzria's tips to Mafia".  ::)
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #205 on: May 29, 2012, 01:33:09 pm »

Wow, quick post since I am at work and can't spend too much time.

Not really sure what to say other than I have been busy with school, but that isn't super likely to change.

I will certainly try to post more and be more active, but I don't have all day to be on the forum. That was one of my main apprehensions about joining the game, but felt that I would be alright as some said they wanted the game to be less wordy than the other two Mafia games currently going.

I too am a bit surprised by VOTES?! Suspicions make sense, but votes? I guess it makes sense if the idea was to get me to respond. But I think I would have responded either way.

Current status:
Suspicious: No one
Not suspicious: no one
Vote: None

I'll try to get back on after work, but I can't make any guarantees.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #206 on: May 29, 2012, 01:37:33 pm »

I did this in the first game and I guess i'll do this again. Voting ATM really is inconsequential and I find it amusing that people are so surprised at votes already occurring.

I will vote for the person whose number corresponds to the seconds digit on the timestamp IFF they have a reasonable chance of being lynched and no mafia clearly screwed up.

Galzria   0
michaeljb   1
jotheonah   2
Morgrim7   3
MrEevee   4
Dsell   5
Robz   6
Voltgloss  7
eHalcyon   8
Captain_Frisk   9
def   -bye
yuma   -bye
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #207 on: May 29, 2012, 01:38:33 pm »

VOTE: MORGRIM
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def

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #208 on: May 29, 2012, 02:03:03 pm »

I did this in the first game and I guess i'll do this again. Voting ATM really is inconsequential and I find it amusing that people are so surprised at votes already occurring.

I will vote for the person whose number corresponds to the seconds digit on the timestamp IFF they have a reasonable chance of being lynched and no mafia clearly screwed up.

Galzria   0
michaeljb   1
jotheonah   2
Morgrim7   3
MrEevee   4
Dsell   5
Robz   6
Voltgloss  7
eHalcyon   8
Captain_Frisk   9
def   -bye
yuma   -bye

What do you mean, bye? I demand to me treated equally. You could use the seconds modulo 12 I guess.
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #209 on: May 29, 2012, 02:05:45 pm »

Voting ATM really is inconsequential and I find it amusing that people are so surprised at votes already occurring.

The "I'm new" argument, doesn't work so well. The game is pretty straight forward. Don't read too much into hard strategy. This game is about instinct and constant analyzing.
Eh, Voltgloss was responding to my second vote like it was dangerous, talking about how quickly further bandwagoning could happen, I was guessing experience might tell someone that (ie they've seen it happen numerous times with poor results). Like O, I don't really see the harm at this point.

Quote
But never get defensive! Defensive play feels negative, and will just bring more/harsher criticism, often unwarranted.
I understand this, but I certainly don't want to ignore it when someone is suspicious of me and has questions they want answered. I guess there's a fine line between appropriately answering questions and being too defensive.
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #210 on: May 29, 2012, 02:10:05 pm »

I will certainly try to post more and be more active, but I don't have all day to be on the forum.

Fair enough, and probably a good thing in general to not be tied to the compy  ::)

Unvote
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #211 on: May 29, 2012, 02:11:58 pm »

I'm still waiting on Voltgloss to respond to my suspicions that this "work" thing is just a big rouse. He's hiding something I tell ya! Mark my words!  ;)
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #212 on: May 29, 2012, 02:47:27 pm »

I did this in the first game and I guess i'll do this again. Voting ATM really is inconsequential and I find it amusing that people are so surprised at votes already occurring.

I will vote for the person whose number corresponds to the seconds digit on the timestamp IFF they have a reasonable chance of being lynched and no mafia clearly screwed up.

Galzria   0
michaeljb   1
jotheonah   2
Morgrim7   3
MrEevee   4
Dsell   5
Robz   6
Voltgloss  7
eHalcyon   8
Captain_Frisk   9
def   -bye
yuma   -bye

Just to clarify -- you mean the second digit of the seconds on your own post?  So... you vote Morgrim?  Nice way to randomize, ha. :P

And I guess def and yuma got byes for being quiet?  I was wondering how you made the order of the list, but it looks like you just took the list from Captain_Frisk's post of post counts.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #213 on: May 29, 2012, 02:57:21 pm »

What's this?! We were having a perfectly lovely conversation about avatars and begging for twigs, and now people are suddenly calling for a hanging??  :o  What a mad world we live in!

Seriously though, I'm glad to see more substantive posts! I do hope we can hear a little more from the quieter ones, and it doesn't seem to me like throwing a couple votes out early is putting us in too much danger of an early hammer. It seems like a terribly obvious mafia move to throw 2 or 3 bandwagon votes on a person in the first round to bring the hammer down. Nobody wants to actually lynch right now, we just want strong reactions. And strong reactions are good because a mafia player might be more likely to slip if they have to really defend themselves.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #214 on: May 29, 2012, 03:17:18 pm »

ha, our votes worked, finally some real discussion!

my (and i assumed frisks's as well) point was just to vote for someone to create some tension and discussion. as michaeljb noted, getting seven people to vote feels sort of far away anyways. on a slightly different subject, am i wrong to think that unless someone does something really suspicious, the first to get up to 5 votes or so (so to a reasonable risk of getting lynched) isnt really a good lynch at all? because mafia is probably going to bandwagon if some innocent townie starts to get like any votes at all so at this point a townie is actually far more likely to get voted on than a mafia?

@voltgloss, as i said earlier, we got to get the ball rolling somehow and my strategy even worked, i got yuma to sort of defend himself even though he didnt really say much. by the way, voltgloss seems to be an awesome guy to have around, really good and insightful posts.

am i the only one who's really annoyed of O's voting behaviour? I mean, you really dont have enough faith in yourself to be able to make decisions better than 100% random? voting behaviour is probably the single greatest source of reads we are going to walk away with from day 1 and voting "random" just gives you a free pass of voting for town and blaming it was random if you are mafia. (you know, you could just pick a random "factor" that led to the guy you wanted to vote for anyways to clear yourself). I'm actually tempted to go ahead and vote for O but i dont want to be the guy who's voting for everyone and stuff so I'll refrain for the time being.
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def

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #215 on: May 29, 2012, 03:40:37 pm »

because mafia is probably going to bandwagon if some innocent townie starts to get like any votes at all so at this point a townie is actually far more likely to get voted on than a mafia?

Since the folks to cast the final votes are very suspicious of being mafia, I doubt that mafia would risk themselves by voting to get a quick kill.
I'd even go so far and say that mafia might vote each other, because with so many players, the risk of accidentally lynching one of their own is pretty low, and it reduces suspicion if one of them somehow is revealed to be mafia.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #216 on: May 29, 2012, 03:40:43 pm »

am i the only one who's really annoyed of O's voting behaviour? I mean, you really dont have enough faith in yourself to be able to make decisions better than 100% random? voting behaviour is probably the single greatest source of reads we are going to walk away with from day 1 and voting "random" just gives you a free pass of voting for town and blaming it was random if you are mafia. (you know, you could just pick a random "factor" that led to the guy you wanted to vote for anyways to clear yourself). I'm actually tempted to go ahead and vote for O but i dont want to be the guy who's voting for everyone and stuff so I'll refrain for the time being.

Random voting didn't go over well in Mafia 1 either, but I can absolutely understand it.  As a town player, the only information you have is that you are not Mafia.  Everyone has an equally likely chance.  A pure random lynch is better than no lynch at all - for the reasons outlined in Mafia 2 - AND one that the Mafia is going to be less than enthused about doing (for fear of accidentally random rolling one of their own!). 

It's also not like he's using this to break ties on a hammer vote, just a question of starting position.  Our decisions were nearly as arbitrary.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #217 on: May 29, 2012, 03:50:00 pm »

am i the only one who's really annoyed of O's voting behaviour? I mean, you really dont have enough faith in yourself to be able to make decisions better than 100% random? voting behaviour is probably the single greatest source of reads we are going to walk away with from day 1 and voting "random" just gives you a free pass of voting for town and blaming it was random if you are mafia. (you know, you could just pick a random "factor" that led to the guy you wanted to vote for anyways to clear yourself). I'm actually tempted to go ahead and vote for O but i dont want to be the guy who's voting for everyone and stuff so I'll refrain for the time being.

Random voting didn't go over well in Mafia 1 either, but I can absolutely understand it.  As a town player, the only information you have is that you are not Mafia.  Everyone has an equally likely chance.  A pure random lynch is better than no lynch at all - for the reasons outlined in Mafia 2 - AND one that the Mafia is going to be less than enthused about doing (for fear of accidentally random rolling one of their own!). 

It's also not like he's using this to break ties on a hammer vote, just a question of starting position.  Our decisions were nearly as arbitrary.

The problem I have with it, is that... Well, yes. Our vote is likely going to be PRETTY random. However, stating that you choose randomly is a complete mislead. I mean, can you prove he didn't set it up to fall on a townie (assuming he were Mafia)? Of course not. So in that respect, there is no such thing as "a random lynch". If you believe someone is Mafia, make a case for it. Right or wrong at least you've done justice to yourself and other players in providing real perspective on how you think.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #218 on: May 29, 2012, 03:53:46 pm »

am i the only one who's really annoyed of O's voting behaviour? I mean, you really dont have enough faith in yourself to be able to make decisions better than 100% random? voting behaviour is probably the single greatest source of reads we are going to walk away with from day 1 and voting "random" just gives you a free pass of voting for town and blaming it was random if you are mafia. (you know, you could just pick a random "factor" that led to the guy you wanted to vote for anyways to clear yourself). I'm actually tempted to go ahead and vote for O but i dont want to be the guy who's voting for everyone and stuff so I'll refrain for the time being.

Random voting didn't go over well in Mafia 1 either, but I can absolutely understand it.  As a town player, the only information you have is that you are not Mafia.  Everyone has an equally likely chance.  A pure random lynch is better than no lynch at all - for the reasons outlined in Mafia 2 - AND one that the Mafia is going to be less than enthused about doing (for fear of accidentally random rolling one of their own!). 

It's also not like he's using this to break ties on a hammer vote, just a question of starting position.  Our decisions were nearly as arbitrary.

The problem I have with it, is that... Well, yes. Our vote is likely going to be PRETTY random. However, stating that you choose randomly is a complete mislead. I mean, can you prove he didn't set it up to fall on a townie (assuming he were Mafia)? Of course not. So in that respect, there is no such thing as "a random lynch". If you believe someone is Mafia, make a case for it. Right or wrong at least you've done justice to yourself and other players in providing real perspective on how you think.

In the future O - its probably best to choose something that's reasonably random... Say - Number of Justin Bieber followers at the end of the day modded by 12  (as reported by http://twittercounter.com/justinbieber).
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #219 on: May 29, 2012, 04:16:10 pm »

am i the only one who's really annoyed of O's voting behaviour? I mean, you really dont have enough faith in yourself to be able to make decisions better than 100% random? voting behaviour is probably the single greatest source of reads we are going to walk away with from day 1 and voting "random" just gives you a free pass of voting for town and blaming it was random if you are mafia. (you know, you could just pick a random "factor" that led to the guy you wanted to vote for anyways to clear yourself). I'm actually tempted to go ahead and vote for O but i dont want to be the guy who's voting for everyone and stuff so I'll refrain for the time being.

Random voting didn't go over well in Mafia 1 either, but I can absolutely understand it.  As a town player, the only information you have is that you are not Mafia.  Everyone has an equally likely chance.  A pure random lynch is better than no lynch at all - for the reasons outlined in Mafia 2 - AND one that the Mafia is going to be less than enthused about doing (for fear of accidentally random rolling one of their own!). 

It's also not like he's using this to break ties on a hammer vote, just a question of starting position.  Our decisions were nearly as arbitrary.

The problem I have with it, is that... Well, yes. Our vote is likely going to be PRETTY random. However, stating that you choose randomly is a complete mislead. I mean, can you prove he didn't set it up to fall on a townie (assuming he were Mafia)? Of course not. So in that respect, there is no such thing as "a random lynch". If you believe someone is Mafia, make a case for it. Right or wrong at least you've done justice to yourself and other players in providing real perspective on how you think.

I have a totally different problem with that, namely that we could all say "Yes, O is wise and his method is sound, let us all vote for his randomly selected townie and get this lynch over with." At which point, the whole point of the quote-unquote random Day 1 lynch - generating discussion - would be defeated.  Or we could each set up our own random number generators and, in all likelihood, lynch no one. But there's no scenario in which your random number generator is actually helpful to the town in any way.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #220 on: May 29, 2012, 04:19:12 pm »

am i the only one who's really annoyed of O's voting behaviour? I mean, you really dont have enough faith in yourself to be able to make decisions better than 100% random? voting behaviour is probably the single greatest source of reads we are going to walk away with from day 1 and voting "random" just gives you a free pass of voting for town and blaming it was random if you are mafia. (you know, you could just pick a random "factor" that led to the guy you wanted to vote for anyways to clear yourself). I'm actually tempted to go ahead and vote for O but i dont want to be the guy who's voting for everyone and stuff so I'll refrain for the time being.

Random voting didn't go over well in Mafia 1 either, but I can absolutely understand it.  As a town player, the only information you have is that you are not Mafia.  Everyone has an equally likely chance.  A pure random lynch is better than no lynch at all - for the reasons outlined in Mafia 2 - AND one that the Mafia is going to be less than enthused about doing (for fear of accidentally random rolling one of their own!). 

It's also not like he's using this to break ties on a hammer vote, just a question of starting position.  Our decisions were nearly as arbitrary.

The problem I have with it, is that... Well, yes. Our vote is likely going to be PRETTY random. However, stating that you choose randomly is a complete mislead. I mean, can you prove he didn't set it up to fall on a townie (assuming he were Mafia)? Of course not. So in that respect, there is no such thing as "a random lynch". If you believe someone is Mafia, make a case for it. Right or wrong at least you've done justice to yourself and other players in providing real perspective on how you think.

I have a totally different problem with that, namely that we could all say "Yes, O is wise and his method is sound, let us all vote for his randomly selected townie and get this lynch over with." At which point, the whole point of the quote-unquote random Day 1 lynch - generating discussion - would be defeated.  Or we could each set up our own random number generators and, in all likelihood, lynch no one. But there's no scenario in which your random number generator is actually helpful to the town in any way.

Oh, I agree with that completely as well. I think our end conclusion is pretty much the same in either case though: It's highly unhelpful to the town.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #221 on: May 29, 2012, 05:54:59 pm »

the quote unquote random lynch isn't beneficial because it creates discussion. It's beneficial because it's statistically better for us to lynch the first day assuming random picks.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #222 on: May 29, 2012, 07:03:12 pm »

the quote unquote random lynch isn't beneficial because it creates discussion. It's beneficial because it's statistically better for us to lynch the first day assuming random picks.

Is this true for all group sizes?  I remember seeing the math in either Mafia I or II.  I think there was also a complaint that it didn't factor in town power roles, but that if it did it will still be in favour of day 1 lynch.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #223 on: May 29, 2012, 07:04:48 pm »

I'm mostly checking in because apparently absence breeds suspicion--why is that such a hard word to spell? Every time I type it I have to use the auto correct--but I am not seeing much of anything that seems "suspicious." I understand the need to get a discussion going, but everything that has been said thus far seems to be complete speculation and not really worth commenting on... 

I'm still waiting on Voltgloss to respond to my suspicions that this "work" thing is just a big rouse. He's hiding something I tell ya! Mark my words!  ;)

I did find this a bit off. Just adding a smiley face doesn't make it any better. Emoticons are too often used as a shield to deflect real meaning in a conversation. 

Status:
Suspicious: Galzria--just a little bit
Not suspicious: no one
Vote: None
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #224 on: May 29, 2012, 07:21:56 pm »

Sorry I have been gone...
Randomizer voting, huh O? Hmmm not a bad idea, until we find out more..
Some suspicions...
Suspicious: Galzria, maybe some others
Not Suspicious: None
Vote: Nobody...yet...

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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #225 on: May 29, 2012, 08:04:33 pm »

Yeah, sure, and when I'm here, nobody talks AT ALL. Which timezones are you in? I'm GMT+1.

I too am beginning to feel this way. I am finally on to talk and comment and no one else seems to be writing much of anything at the time. But when I turn off the computer and come back tomorrow afternoon there will be 2 new pages and half a dozen votes I am sure...

Oh, and I am Mountain Daylight Time
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #226 on: May 29, 2012, 08:19:04 pm »

I'm mostly checking in because apparently absence breeds suspicion--why is that such a hard word to spell? Every time I type it I have to use the auto correct--but I am not seeing much of anything that seems "suspicious." I understand the need to get a discussion going, but everything that has been said thus far seems to be complete speculation and not really worth commenting on... 

I'm still waiting on Voltgloss to respond to my suspicions that this "work" thing is just a big rouse. He's hiding something I tell ya! Mark my words!  ;)

I did find this a bit off. Just adding a smiley face doesn't make it any better. Emoticons are too often used as a shield to deflect real meaning in a conversation. 

Status:
Suspicious: Galzria--just a little bit
Not suspicious: no one
Vote: None

Oh, there wasn't meant to be any deflection. It was more a poke at Volt because he's MIA (for stated reasons) from both this game and Mafia-II. Still, feel free to suspect me over it. I'm firmly in the camp that casting lines of suspicion to arouse responses from people (what I'm doing at Volt) is MUCH safer as a town play than actually casting votes to arouse responses. So I do find it funny that my playing "safer" by NOT voting my suspicions gets me more attention than those who use their vote in a possibly dangerous manner.

Ah well, what can I do? I stand by my statement though. I suspect Volt, and would like to hear more from him. Is he busy working? Probably. Can I hold that against him? Well, absolutely! Especially when I have nothing else to go on. I find that better play than a "random" lynch based on timestamp.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #227 on: May 29, 2012, 08:33:30 pm »

Yeah, sure, and when I'm here, nobody talks AT ALL. Which timezones are you in? I'm GMT+1.

I too am beginning to feel this way. I am finally on to talk and comment and no one else seems to be writing much of anything at the time. But when I turn off the computer and come back tomorrow afternoon there will be 2 new pages and half a dozen votes I am sure...

Oh, and I am Mountain Daylight Time

Lurking a bit here because I don't have much of a read on anyone.  However, I find yuma's suspicion of Galzria (reply #223) a bit odd.  What's wrong with what Galzria said?  Seemed like a pretty harmless post to me.  "Emoticons are too often used as a shield to deflect real meaning in a conversation."  yuma, what do you think the real meaning was?

Keeping on the Galzria trail, I'm wondering why Morgrim is suspicious of him as well.  Is it because of the vote counts that Captain_Frisk posted?

(Earlier on I misidentified my time zone as MST.  I realize now that I'm currently in MDT.  Those daylight savings!  Parenthical comment because it's not really relevant to the above discussion.)
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #228 on: May 30, 2012, 01:24:03 am »

Oh, how I wish I had time today/tomorrow to spend on these games. 

But alas work consumed me today as I predicted it would.  It's 1:30 a.m. here and I am still plowing ahead.

I'll try to weigh in with substance Wednesday evening.  Hopefully it won't be sleep-deprived substance.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #229 on: May 30, 2012, 01:54:24 am »

UNVOTE

Voting for yuma doesnt feel right anymore, he hasnt said anything i find suspicious and clearly isnt the most inactive player or anything like that anymore (which was the only reason for my initial vote).

O, obviously your random vote is going to be better than going to night without a lynch but no one is proposing that. Thats like saying "i want to buy that cellar because its clearly better than nothing" when you have 3 to spend and warehouse is on board.

Even if we believe your votes really are random (if you are mafia, they are not), voting random is still clearly worse (for town) than voting for someone and stating your reasons for doing so. Why dont you want to help us?
(Note: i dont necessarily blame people who say "i dont have any suspicions or any idea who to vote for, but I do appreciate the people who help us dig for mafia by trying to spot questionable behaviour. Random voting is not going to do that).

ugh i feel i'm writing really bad english atm, sorry everyone & i hope this is clear enough. if it isnt obvious to anyone by now, i am not a native english speaker.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #230 on: May 30, 2012, 02:01:29 am »

Honestly couldn't even tell Eevee. Most people on an internet forum don't bother to "speak" well. I'm very appreciative that the community here does seem to make an effort at it though. Having said that, you don't stand out at all to me, so that's a good thing. People around here seem to be a pretty good crowd to blend in to. :)
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #231 on: May 30, 2012, 08:26:52 am »

All right folks, its time for your morning post count:  here's our activity since our last count

Username   Posts In Last Day
Galzria   8
michaeljb   6
O   4
Captain_Frisk   4
MrEevee   3
eHalcyon   3
def   3
yuma   3
Morgrim7   2
Voltgloss   2
jotheonah   1
Dsell   1
Robz   0

RobZ's silence is interesting - given that he has definitely been around.  I don't know whether to read him as lurking or just bored because there is nothing to go on.

MichaelJB and Galzria continue to be chatty.  Since nothing material has happened - I see no reason to change my vote.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #232 on: May 30, 2012, 09:23:35 am »

Safe to say that the-games-that-shall-not-be-named are at a more critical juncture for Robz ATM.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #233 on: May 30, 2012, 09:58:38 am »

Safe to say that the-games-that-shall-not-be-named are at a more critical juncture for Robz ATM.

Agreed.  Same holds true for me, jotheonah, and Galzria (and Insomniac too of course). 

How Galzria is maintaining highest-post-count here AND putting together his magnum opus elsewhere is truly amazing to me.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #234 on: May 30, 2012, 10:11:36 am »

Clearly "Galzria" is not a real person but an advanced AI. At some point rrenaud's Dominion Simulator gained sentience, registered for the blog, and became Galzria. It likes mafia games because they provide an opportunity to study the human psyche and learn how to better emulate us.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #235 on: May 30, 2012, 10:54:24 am »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Galzria(1) - Captain Frisk
Morgrim(1) - O
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #236 on: May 30, 2012, 11:26:02 am »

Dear Journal,
Bad news. Someone has voted to hang me! The only other vote is for the Duke...at least the person who voted for me did not think I am Mafia (I'm not) the vote was random. I have not voted yet; I wish to wait until I have more Information.
I have made my will in case I am lynched.
The Merchant Ship came in today! I made two coins. I wish to save the money in a bank until further notice.
P.S. The Alchemist declined my request. :(
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #237 on: May 30, 2012, 01:20:07 pm »

Safe to say that the-games-that-shall-not-be-named are at a more critical juncture for Robz ATM.

I'd be willing to buy that... except that RobZ still had time to play 10 games of dominion yesterday: http://councilroom.com/player?player=Robz888... and I accidentally caught him via automatch during my lunchbreak.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #238 on: May 30, 2012, 01:50:14 pm »

Safe to say that the-games-that-shall-not-be-named are at a more critical juncture for Robz ATM.

I'd be willing to buy that... except that RobZ still had time to play 10 games of dominion yesterday: http://councilroom.com/player?player=Robz888... and I accidentally caught him via automatch during my lunchbreak.

Well, the relevant question to THIS game then is: Who won?
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #239 on: May 30, 2012, 01:52:29 pm »

Safe to say that the-games-that-shall-not-be-named are at a more critical juncture for Robz ATM.

I'd be willing to buy that... except that RobZ still had time to play 10 games of dominion yesterday: http://councilroom.com/player?player=Robz888... and I accidentally caught him via automatch during my lunchbreak.

Well, the relevant question to THIS game then is: Who won?

He did... was village / wharf madness, and I started greening too early I think.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #240 on: May 30, 2012, 01:56:10 pm »

Safe to say that the-games-that-shall-not-be-named are at a more critical juncture for Robz ATM.

I'd be willing to buy that... except that RobZ still had time to play 10 games of dominion yesterday: http://councilroom.com/player?player=Robz888... and I accidentally caught him via automatch during my lunchbreak.

Well in that case, let's kill him for sure. /sarcasm
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #241 on: May 30, 2012, 02:54:04 pm »

P.S. The Alchemist declined my request. :(

Morgrim keeps picking on the Alchemist, which I guess is me by virtue of my new avatar. :(

Morgrim, what have you to say about these suggestions that I am less-than-kind-and-wonderful?
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #242 on: May 30, 2012, 03:04:13 pm »

However, I find yuma's suspicion of Galzria (reply #223) a bit odd.  What's wrong with what Galzria said?  Seemed like a pretty harmless post to me.  "Emoticons are too often used as a shield to deflect real meaning in a conversation."  yuma, what do you think the real meaning was?


Quick response to your question. I think Galzria's comment was exactly what it said. He wanted to know if Voltgloss was really working or if he was using it as an excuse. The emoticon makes it look like a joke.
Emoticons are like the group of students from my old high school who would say something insulting and then add a J.K. at the end of it. Adding a JK or a ;) doesn't change what was originally behind it. Galzria's suspicion of Voltgloss for telling us that he wouldn't be around for the next little bit seemed odd. Just because Volgloss has a real life job that takes him away from a game doesn't mean he should be suspected--for that reason only, if there are other reasons to suspect him, then sure. I would rather suspect someone who says he is free all the next day and then doesn't appear online, or who disappears without letting us know. That is shady behavior. Being clear and open with time and expected appearances doesn't. At least not to me.

Suspicious: Galzria (still very slightly)
Not Suspicious: no one
vote: none

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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #243 on: May 30, 2012, 03:27:26 pm »

Safe to say that the-games-that-shall-not-be-named are at a more critical juncture for Robz ATM.

I'd be willing to buy that... except that RobZ still had time to play 10 games of dominion yesterday: http://councilroom.com/player?player=Robz888... and I accidentally caught him via automatch during my lunchbreak.

Well, the relevant question to THIS game then is: Who won?

He did... was village / wharf madness, and I started greening too early I think.

Nah, it was all luck.

Moving on, I have no suspicions. Absolutely none. I haven't said anything, because I have some other mafia games where I do have ideas, and this thread already has enough substance-less posts!  ;)

I will say I don't like O's method of voting--not because I expect us to do much better than random (I do, but not much), but because it doesn't generate too much discussion. Morgrim can't defend himself from a number generator, so there isn't any value in accusing and voting for Morgrim based on that.

I suppose I can do what I usually do, though. Eevee: Are you the mafia? Explain yourself.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #244 on: May 30, 2012, 03:32:42 pm »

Quick response to your question. I think Galzria's comment was exactly what it said. He wanted to know if Voltgloss was really working or if he was using it as an excuse. The emoticon makes it look like a joke.
Emoticons are like the group of students from my old high school who would say something insulting and then add a J.K. at the end of it. Adding a JK or a ;) doesn't change what was originally behind it. Galzria's suspicion of Voltgloss for telling us that he wouldn't be around for the next little bit seemed odd. Just because Volgloss has a real life job that takes him away from a game doesn't mean he should be suspected--for that reason only, if there are other reasons to suspect him, then sure. I would rather suspect someone who says he is free all the next day and then doesn't appear online, or who disappears without letting us know. That is shady behavior. Being clear and open with time and expected appearances doesn't. At least not to me.

Suspicious: Galzria (still very slightly)
Not Suspicious: no one
vote: none

Eh, that's fair.  I don't necessarily agree though -- it certain read like a joke to me.  Admittedly it IS because of the emoticon that I take it as a joke, but I also don't see how it would be an effective way of casting suspicion on someone.  Also, I tend to use emoticons to clarify my meaning online.  Otherwise, my dry sarcastic pith might go undetected, and then what's the point of being dry, sarcastic and pithy?  ;)  (And more importantly, I have at times unintentionally offended people who didn't realize I was joking.)
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #245 on: May 30, 2012, 03:34:45 pm »

P.S. The Alchemist declined my request. :(

Morgrim keeps picking on the Alchemist, which I guess is me by virtue of my new avatar. :(

Morgrim, what have you to say about these suggestions that I am less-than-kind-and-wonderful?
You are probably not going to believe me, but I did not notice that coincidence until now. Must be a different Alchemist.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #246 on: May 30, 2012, 03:40:16 pm »

By the way I'm sorry for not I'm not able to quote people. It would take awfully long on an ipad and I left my laptop home. Hopefully I'll still be around when I fly back on the 13th!

@Robz, I honestly dont know how helpful that question is going to be (for town). You cant expect anyone to answer "yeah you got me, I'm mafia" but a less experienced player might (accidentally or intentionally) make a comment regarding his/her role which isnt too good for town. (Is this logic sound?)

.. and yeah, I dont think I have anything to explain. I feel I've been one of the more helpful posters this far, dont really see any reason to suspect me. Why did you pick me to ask that question?
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #247 on: May 30, 2012, 03:44:03 pm »

P.S. The Alchemist declined my request. :(

Morgrim keeps picking on the Alchemist, which I guess is me by virtue of my new avatar. :(

Morgrim, what have you to say about these suggestions that I am less-than-kind-and-wonderful?
You are probably not going to believe me, but I did not notice that coincidence until now. Must be a different Alchemist.

Eh, I think I believe you. Really nobody seems too suspicious yet. And competition is fierce in my field.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #248 on: May 30, 2012, 03:52:58 pm »

P.S. The Alchemist declined my request. :(

Morgrim keeps picking on the Alchemist, which I guess is me by virtue of my new avatar. :(

Morgrim, what have you to say about these suggestions that I am less-than-kind-and-wonderful?
You are probably not going to believe me, but I did not notice that coincidence until now. Must be a different Alchemist.

Eh, I think I believe you. Really nobody seems too suspicious yet. And competition is fierce in my field.
Well, he has enough money for a bunch of Apprentices...have you noticed that there are not very many Peddlers and Border Villages? He even has his own Apothecary shop. Tel us about your Apothecary shop.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #249 on: May 30, 2012, 03:54:07 pm »

By the way I'm sorry for not I'm not able to quote people. It would take awfully long on an ipad and I left my laptop home. Hopefully I'll still be around when I fly back on the 13th!

@Robz, I honestly dont know how helpful that question is going to be (for town). You cant expect anyone to answer "yeah you got me, I'm mafia"

Eh, you never know.

but a less experienced player might (accidentally or intentionally) make a comment regarding his/her role which isnt too good for town. (Is this logic sound?)

It's probably not a good thing, though we don't know which roles we are dealing with. But yeah, people should keep their roles quiet for now. But no I don't think accusations are likely to out people with roles until that person has a lot of votes. We have to get info somehow at some point.

.. and yeah, I dont think I have anything to explain. I feel I've been one of the more helpful posters this far, dont really see any reason to suspect me. Why did you pick me to ask that question?

Just a feeling. Your posts seem to strike a Mafia-esque balance between purposeful and silly.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #250 on: May 30, 2012, 04:00:04 pm »

haha trying my best to be insightful and smart and coming out as silly, thats painful to hear :D
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #251 on: May 30, 2012, 04:08:17 pm »

It's probably not a good thing, though we don't know which roles we are dealing with. But yeah, people should keep their roles quiet for now. But no I don't think accusations are likely to out people with roles until that person has a lot of votes. We have to get info somehow at some point.

We do need to get info @ some point.  To this end - I am going to UNVOTE.  While I'm suspicious of various people who seem to be anti-voting, I'm going to vote with O here for 2 reasons:

1.  I don't believe that the isotropic timestamp is predictable enough to reliably game - so I do believe his vote is true random - rather than a mafia attempt at guiding us.
2.  Morgrim's posts have been non substantial... I appreciate the attempt @ flavor, but when the posts are journal entries discussing Merchant Ships and banks, it doesn't seem to accomplish anything other than keeping us from thinking that you're inactive and lurking.

VOTE: Morgrim7
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #252 on: May 30, 2012, 04:13:24 pm »

-Shrugs Shoulders-
Well, I suppose I will vote too. And my vote is...
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #253 on: May 30, 2012, 04:15:30 pm »

haha trying my best to be insightful and smart and coming out as silly, thats painful to hear :D

You are insightful. I meant that you are insightful and a little silly, which strikes me as mafia. But it could be that I am exaggerating how silly you are because you are a cute Pokemon.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #254 on: May 30, 2012, 04:16:56 pm »

-Pulls name from basket-
An here we have…

Vote: def
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #255 on: May 30, 2012, 04:26:45 pm »

-Pulls name from basket-
An here we have…

Vote: def

And this is exactly what I'm referring to - you've posted... but have done so with no substance.  You hint that the vote for def is random, but there's no way for us to verify.  There's no explanation given for the vote. 
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #256 on: May 30, 2012, 04:35:14 pm »

Also, I tend to use emoticons to clarify my meaning online.  Otherwise, my dry sarcastic pith might go undetected, and then what's the point of being dry, sarcastic and pithy?  ;)  (And more importantly, I have at times unintentionally offended people who didn't realize I was joking.)

That is a good point. Perhaps it is because I am not very sarcastic? I don't use emoticons very much and as such don't like it when other people do. It confuses the conversation for me :) --see what do I mean by that smile? I don't know, do you :) -- ah! there it goes again. :) ....  Ok, maybe I am a little sarcastic.

Status:

Suspicious: Galzria, Morgrim7
Not suspicious: none
Vote: none
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #257 on: May 30, 2012, 04:36:58 pm »

-Pulls name from basket-
An here we have…

Vote: def

And this is exactly what I'm referring to - you've posted... but have done so with no substance.  You hint that the vote for def is random, but there's no way for us to verify.  There's no explanation given for the vote.
Explanation: I ripped up a peice of paper into 12 different peices of paper, wrote the names of the player on the shreds, placed them in a basket, and chose one randomly. True story.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #258 on: May 30, 2012, 04:50:59 pm »

I really don't like the random voting by either O or Morgrim.  By randomly voting, you remove yourself from the decision process.  If the lynch goes through and they turn up Town, you can curse fate and keep the blame off of yourself.  You can't be accused of targeting the unlucky player because it was random.  And that tells the town nothing.

If you are town, you should be picking a target based on SOME sort of reasoning.  Something strange the player said.  Their post count.  Their post quality.  Even an inexplicable gut instinct is better than random voting.  It lets the town know that you're at least trying to identify the Mafia.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #259 on: May 30, 2012, 05:09:59 pm »

Yeah, voting this random is going to be close to random. There's no need to make it EXACTLY random. In fact, we will face the same problems next round if our kill this round is made for purely random reasons. We need to question, accuse, harass. Although I guess these random voters are instructive in that they give us someone to accuse.

So, I insist that pure random voting is the worst thing you can do for the town. O and Morgrim have done it. I ask you both: Why? Do you disagree with my analysis? Will you admit to being the mafia?
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #260 on: May 30, 2012, 05:10:38 pm »

Yeah, voting this random is going to be close to random. There's no need to make it EXACTLY random. In fact, we will face the same problems next round if our kill this round is made for purely random reasons. We need to question, accuse, harass. Although I guess these random voters are instructive in that they give us someone to accuse.

So, I insist that pure random voting is the worst thing you can do for the town. O and Morgrim have done it. I ask you both: Why? Do you disagree with my analysis? Will you admit to being the mafia?

Typo: ****Yeah, voting this ROUND is going to be close to random. There's no****
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #261 on: May 30, 2012, 05:16:08 pm »

Why? I guess I was pressure to vote, after two voting squares were.placed on my head. Do I disagree with you? Absolutely not. That makes sense. Will I admit to being Mafia? If I lie to you by saying I am Mafia, what could I hope to gain? Suspicion? People wondering wether I am bluffing or double bluffing? I am town.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #262 on: May 30, 2012, 05:18:37 pm »

Post 224 -- Morgrim said he was suspicious of "Galzria, maybe some others."  I asked for reasons why he was suspicious but there hasn't been a response yet.  Morgrim, can you explain?  Who else were you "maybe" suspicious of, and why?  Why haven't you shared those thoughts?  And why did you "randomly" vote for def instead of people you suspected?

Even though the first vote for you was random by O, I'm leaning towards you now as well.

Response?  Please?
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #263 on: May 30, 2012, 05:32:01 pm »

Along with the above posts I am becoming more and more wary of Morgrim7 behavior. I think I will join C. Frisk--whose vote I agree with--and O--whose vote I don't--in voting for Morgrim7.

Status:
Suspicious: Galzria, Morgrim7
Not suspicious: none
Vote: Morgrim7
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #264 on: May 30, 2012, 05:41:03 pm »

Post 224 -- Morgrim said he was suspicious of "Galzria, maybe some others."  I asked for reasons why he was suspicious but there hasn't been a response yet.  Morgrim, can you explain?  Who else were you "maybe" suspicious of, and why?  Why haven't you shared those thoughts?  And why did you "randomly" vote for def instead of people you suspected?

Even though the first vote for you was random by O, I'm leaning towards you now as well.

Response?  Please?
I was suspicious of Galzria because of all his posts. I believe it is around 20 now. Some others, meaning the people who did not post much. You yourself said we should vote according to things such as # of posts.
You still do not believe my vote was random? Do you want me to post pictures of the slips of paper and basket? Prepare for some mesy handwriting. ;)
Why did I vote randomly? Good question. In Mafia II, one of the reasons why I was lynched was because of my 'easy on the bandwagon- easy off the bandwagon'. If someone came up with some defense for the person that I had voted for that made sense, I could either keep my vote (which would arouse suspicion) or vote for someone else. Voting for someone else would catch me in the same trap as last time. By voting randomly, if someone ever came up with a defense, I coud unvote, and hide behind my totally random vote and avoid suspicion. Did not realize at the time that the same could very possibly be done for the random vote idea.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #265 on: May 30, 2012, 05:54:28 pm »

Post 224 -- Morgrim said he was suspicious of "Galzria, maybe some others."  I asked for reasons why he was suspicious but there hasn't been a response yet.  Morgrim, can you explain?  Who else were you "maybe" suspicious of, and why?  Why haven't you shared those thoughts?  And why did you "randomly" vote for def instead of people you suspected?

Even though the first vote for you was random by O, I'm leaning towards you now as well.

Response?  Please?
I was suspicious of Galzria because of all his posts. I believe it is around 20 now. Some others, meaning the people who did not post much. You yourself said we should vote according to things such as # of posts.
You still do not believe my vote was random? Do you want me to post pictures of the slips of paper and basket? Prepare for some mesy handwriting. ;)

That's fine, I just wanted to see a reason.

I have no reason to think that you are lying about selecting randomly.  But as others have noted, it can't be verified.  Saying it was random just seems like you want a way to defend a bad choice if it goes wrong, even though your choice may have truly been targeted.  At least with O's approach, it's rather unlikely he could cheat.  Photos wouldn't prove anything here!

Why did I vote randomly? Good question. In Mafia II, one of the reasons why I was lynched was because of my 'easy on the bandwagon- easy off the bandwagon'. If someone came up with some defense for the person that I had voted for that made sense, I could either keep my vote (which would arouse suspicion) or vote for someone else. Voting for someone else would catch me in the same trap as last time. By voting randomly, if someone ever came up with a defense, I coud unvote, and hide behind my totally random vote and avoid suspicion. Did not realize at the time that the same could very possibly be done for the random vote idea.

Random voting seems less helpful to me.  If you vote for someone with some reason, OK.  If a defense is brought up which makes you change your mind, OK.  It gets suspicious if you're especially capricious, but re-evaluating based on input from others is fine, I think.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #266 on: May 30, 2012, 06:02:40 pm »

Post 224 -- Morgrim said he was suspicious of "Galzria, maybe some others."  I asked for reasons why he was suspicious but there hasn't been a response yet.  Morgrim, can you explain?  Who else were you "maybe" suspicious of, and why?  Why haven't you shared those thoughts?  And why did you "randomly" vote for def instead of people you suspected?

Even though the first vote for you was random by O, I'm leaning towards you now as well.

Response?  Please?
I was suspicious of Galzria because of all his posts. I believe it is around 20 now. Some others, meaning the people who did not post much. You yourself said we should vote according to things such as # of posts.
You still do not believe my vote was random? Do you want me to post pictures of the slips of paper and basket? Prepare for some mesy handwriting. ;)

That's fine, I just wanted to see a reason.

I have no reason to think that you are lying about selecting randomly.  But as others have noted, it can't be verified.  Saying it was random just seems like you want a way to defend a bad choice if it goes wrong, even though your choice may have truly been targeted.  At least with O's approach, it's rather unlikely he could cheat.  Photos wouldn't prove anything here!

Why did I vote randomly? Good question. In Mafia II, one of the reasons why I was lynched was because of my 'easy on the bandwagon- easy off the bandwagon'. If someone came up with some defense for the person that I had voted for that made sense, I could either keep my vote (which would arouse suspicion) or vote for someone else. Voting for someone else would catch me in the same trap as last time. By voting randomly, if someone ever came up with a defense, I coud unvote, and hide behind my totally random vote and avoid suspicion. Did not realize at the time that the same could very possibly be done for the random vote idea.

Random voting seems less helpful to me.  If you vote for someone with some reason, OK.  If a defense is brought up which makes you change your mind, OK.  It gets suspicious if you're especially capricious, but re-evaluating based on input from others is fine, I think.
Because pictures would not help, I do not see how I can defend this further. If you choose not to believe me, there is nothing I can do. I can only say I am telling the truth.
Voting for something, and then changing my vote when a good point was brought up played a big part in getting me lynched last time. Don't want to repeat mistakes.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #267 on: May 30, 2012, 06:54:04 pm »

I gotta say I'm pretty surprised people are jumping on Morgrim like this. While I must agree that his posts have been largely (with the exception of his latest couple) unhelpful and while I don't like the idea of random voting...or at least trying to make something of a random vote, I am surprised to see votes being thrown his way. Disapproving glances, finger-shaking, and even suspicion I completely understand but I think letting this Morgrim bandwagon get off the ground is really premature. Not to unduly bring up the other game, but Morgrim's actions so far aren't seeming too dissimilar from Mafia II in which Morgrim was wrongly mislynched on day 1 because of his...unorthodox posting.

I'm definitely not saying he's not mafia, I have no idea. Nor do I mean to come to his defense adamantly, I'm just saying I think it's premature to draw any significant conclusions from his lack of substance thus far. I'd also like to point out that aside from his apparently purely random vote for def, I am really the only one he's shown any suspicion of or hostility towards, in the form of his "flavor" entries (talking about how the alchemist is terrible and whatnot...which he says was accidental and I believe him, but...really tough to say 100%).

All that said, Morgrim, if you are really town, please play smart. In your other game you drew lots of suspicion and then deprived the town of invaluable information by hammering yourself, and the town is on the verge of defeat in that game.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #268 on: May 30, 2012, 07:00:09 pm »

I gotta say I'm pretty surprised people are jumping on Morgrim like this. While I must agree that his posts have been largely (with the exception of his latest couple) unhelpful and while I don't like the idea of random voting...or at least trying to make something of a random vote, I am surprised to see votes being thrown his way. Disapproving glances, finger-shaking, and even suspicion I completely understand but I think letting this Morgrim bandwagon get off the ground is really premature. Not to unduly bring up the other game, but Morgrim's actions so far aren't seeming too dissimilar from Mafia II in which Morgrim was wrongly mislynched on day 1 because of his...unorthodox posting.

This is really helpful information.  I wasn't following Mafia II closely enough to know what exactly got him lynched.  I did see the self-hammer go down though!
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #269 on: May 30, 2012, 07:00:31 pm »

Maybe it's too early to cry "bandwagon!" against Morgrim, with only Yuma and O voting for him thus far. But it does seem like we should be a little more careful about votes actually based on suspicion rather than just trying to get someone to talk, which I can't ever see turning into a bandwagon.


That reminds me! For the purpose of full disclosure, in just over two weeks, I am going on a week-long camping trip and I will almost certainly have no access to wifi the whole week. I know this could be right in the middle of things and so I'm sorry for that, but I will try to give a lot of substantive posts and help both before and after. I will actually be back before the deadline of day 1 so who knows, if we drag it out I might not miss too much. I'll remind people again with like a week left and before I leave.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #270 on: May 30, 2012, 07:45:30 pm »

I would feel like kind of a jerk letting Morgrim be the Day 1 lynch ... AGAIN. Poor guy just wants to play some mafia.

On the other hand, two votes in a town this size is not so big a pressure cooker. It takes seven to kill? So 4 votes is the bare minimum for a mafia hammer, and that's assuming fairly stupid mafia play. So everybody calm down a little.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #271 on: May 30, 2012, 07:51:17 pm »

I'm kinda with you on that J. I feel bad for Morgrim. But I can't let that stand in the way of good analysis and reads. Still, for the time being, his crimes are no more egregious than O's, and since O is making a habit of willfully unhelpful town play, my suspicions are "squarely" on O.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #272 on: May 30, 2012, 07:57:23 pm »

I find it incredulous that you see my play as "willingly unhelpful", but I may have to wait till the end of Mafia I to defend myself there.

I have nearly equal chances of lynching a mafia whether I go off nonsensical "hunches" that I can later wave away as just first day ramblings as I do with random choice. The best thing I can do for myself at the moment (regardless of whether I'm town or Mafia at the moment) is convince you I'm town. If I'm town, that's ALSO the best thing I can do for the town at the moment.

Robz is once again going off the I-really-have-strong-feelings-about-these-players-when-I-have-no-information. Does this mean he is any likelier to be Mafia? Not really. But the strong accusation at whim Townie is a bad townie to play with indeed.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #273 on: May 30, 2012, 08:06:09 pm »

Ha! By the same logic that I wouldn't want to Day 1 Kill Morgrim, I ought to be thrilled about Day 1 killing Robz, eh? That guy's playing too damn much mafia!
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #274 on: May 30, 2012, 08:13:56 pm »

O, if I asked a random number generator to pick someone to kill, and we lynched that person, how would we be any closer to winning day 2? Our odds will have changed (more often for the worst), but we will have no better knowledge than day 1.

Yes, Robz's play is AS LIKELY to hit town as yours, but at least we get information. Good, bad, or otherwise, it's more than we have with your method. And if town can't figure out who the Mafia are, town losses.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #275 on: May 30, 2012, 08:23:00 pm »

So as to not ensue more unhelpful town play, and to discourage random voting henceforth (I see now why it is a bad idea[now do not jump on me here]), I have decided to Unvote.
O, Robz's voting off a hunch is no better than voting randomly. In fact, it is worse. Here is a list of assets for both.
Voting off a hunch:
-You can get useful information about that person.
-You can get useful information about the people that defend this person.
-Unless the person is Mafia, you most likely wont get jumped on by many people.

Voting Randomly:
-Well, you wont get info out of them; they wont respond. After all, the vote is random.
-Well, you might get jumped on for being 'willingly unhelpful'. Wait, this was supposed to be a list of assets.
-Your vote will be about as random as the normal lynch will be, so it is faster. Wait, faster? So cutting off good time to get info out of people is beneficial?
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #276 on: May 30, 2012, 08:29:12 pm »

O, if I asked a random number generator to pick someone to kill, and we lynched that person, how would we be any closer to winning day 2? Our odds will have changed (more often for the worst), but we will have no better knowledge than day 1.

Yes, Robz's play is AS LIKELY to hit town as yours, but at least we get information. Good, bad, or otherwise, it's more than we have with your method. And if town can't figure out who the Mafia are, town losses.

We get no more information. If you all would like me to go again, putting it through a random generator that's hidden from view, and framing it at a "hunch", I'll gladly do so.

Statistically, once again, it is better to lynch. You seem to not understand this by your "more often for the worst" comment.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #277 on: May 30, 2012, 08:34:31 pm »

O, if I asked a random number generator to pick someone to kill, and we lynched that person, how would we be any closer to winning day 2? Our odds will have changed (more often for the worst), but we will have no better knowledge than day 1.

Yes, Robz's play is AS LIKELY to hit town as yours, but at least we get information. Good, bad, or otherwise, it's more than we have with your method. And if town can't figure out who the Mafia are, town losses.

We get no more information. If you all would like me to go again, putting it through a random generator that's hidden from view, and framing it at a "hunch", I'll gladly do so.

Statistically, once again, it is better to lynch. You seem to not understand this by your "more often for the worst" comment.
If you can back up your 'hunch' with some evidence, go ahead.
Suspicious: O
Not Suspicious: Nobody
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #278 on: May 30, 2012, 08:40:19 pm »

O, if I asked a random number generator to pick someone to kill, and we lynched that person, how would we be any closer to winning day 2? Our odds will have changed (more often for the worst), but we will have no better knowledge than day 1.

Yes, Robz's play is AS LIKELY to hit town as yours, but at least we get information. Good, bad, or otherwise, it's more than we have with your method. And if town can't figure out who the Mafia are, town losses.

We get no more information. If you all would like me to go again, putting it through a random generator that's hidden from view, and framing it at a "hunch", I'll gladly do so.

Statistically, once again, it is better to lynch. You seem to not understand this by your "more often for the worst" comment.

So, this is problematic to me. No lynch is bad for the town because of (complicated maths)? Or is it bad because it gives the mafia a free kill? Or because it gives the town no information? Or all of those reasons?

But whatever, no lynch is anti-town. Which makes it pro-mafia (or so it has been argued).

AND YET.

Clearly a random lynch is good for the mafia.  If I'm mafia and the town agrees to all pick a single number, run a random number generator, and vote for the person it lands on, I say "Let's do it!" Because the odds are very much in my favor. So a random lynch is pro-Mafia.

So it seems like on Day 1, both lynching and not-lynching is pro-Mafia. How does that work?

The only thing that's actually pro-town at this point is lynching mafia, which of course is impossible to do with any certainty unless the mob screws up.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #279 on: May 30, 2012, 08:40:33 pm »

So if I understand, O wants to random number generator the game. Because if you do round 1, you might as well round 2, and round 3, and...

You are completely wrong to think no information can be gained from following actual instincts. If you've ever played Poker online you would know this. Tells exist here as much as they do face-to-face. You can't just play a formula and win.

btw, there is a higher percentage of town with 10 of 13 than with 8 of 11. 8 of 11 is better than 6 of 9, and so forth. It is better to lynch than not lynch, but it is NOT better to lynch randomly than to lynch on instinct and information.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #280 on: May 30, 2012, 08:41:00 pm »

We get no more information. If you all would like me to go again, putting it through a random generator that's hidden from view, and framing it at a "hunch", I'll gladly do so.

Statistically, once again, it is better to lynch. You seem to not understand this by your "more often for the worst" comment.

But the thing is, framing it as a hunch is better. There is literally no reason to respond to an accusation from a random number generator. There's really not any way TO respond. But if someone is noticing something peculiar in the way someone else is posting, accusing that person based on actual suspicions does merit a response, which gives us information. So even if you randomly pick someone and invent a reason for being suspicious of them, as long as it seems legitimate enough to merit a response you WILL get information from their defense. I'm of course not saying you should frame your random accusations that way nor am I saying that Robz' accusations are random and framed. Rather, I think Robz has some feeling for the game from playing a bit more. But still, saying that random voting gives us the same amount of information as votes based on "suspicious" behavior is just wrong. And it does seem like you are kinda unwilling to see this point.

Pre-post edit: Sorta ninja'd but oh well.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #281 on: May 30, 2012, 08:48:30 pm »

And yet I've spiked conversation.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #282 on: May 30, 2012, 08:55:17 pm »

O, you have not been defending yourself. If you wish to soften suspicion, please explain why you continue to support random voting.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #283 on: May 30, 2012, 08:56:11 pm »

The true random voting--names out of a hat or number generator--is unhelpful because it doesn't generate discussion over the accusation. And I still say it is less likely to hit a mafia than hunch and evidence-based voting, but maybe only slightly less likely. Still, we are going to need these conversations to look back on next round and really start figuring things out.

For that reason, the true random voting is bad/unhelpful town behavior. So I was asking these bad/unhelpful town players to defend themselves. It doesn't mean I actually think they're mafia. I personally toss accusations around but reserve actual voting for the person I have settled on.

(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #284 on: May 30, 2012, 09:00:14 pm »

O, you have not been defending yourself. If you wish to soften suspicion, please explain why you continue to support random voting.

I don't feel the need to defend myself. You accused me because I accused you, and I still see it unlikely that I need to be lynched.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #285 on: May 30, 2012, 09:07:30 pm »


(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

In light of this, and the fact that if O is ok with a random lynch, he must be ok with being lynched, and the fact I don't like O's tone and he's been getting annoying, Vote: O
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #286 on: May 30, 2012, 09:08:20 pm »


(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

Actually it's a pretty terrible fallback plan, since it involves recursive logic. "Killing randomly is terrible strategic, so O is a bad townie. If we can't determine a mafia member we should randomly kill a townie that we have no real suspicions of because he's a bad townie"

See what you did there?  ;)
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #287 on: May 30, 2012, 09:10:43 pm »


(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

In light of this, and the fact that if O is ok with a random lynch, he must be ok with being lynched, and the fact I don't like O's tone and he's been getting annoying, Vote: O

I'm not OK with someone I know to be town being lynched.  ;) But of course you have no real evidence that I'm not, so my defense is nearly as pointless as your argument.

And if we're lynching "bad" people, lets go look at Mafia II and lynch Jonatheoh, Robz or Galzria: They're all either bad townies or excellent Mafia, and both are frightening concepts.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #288 on: May 30, 2012, 09:12:09 pm »


(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

Actually it's a pretty terrible fallback plan, since it involves recursive logic. "Killing randomly is terrible strategic, so O is a bad townie. If we can't determine a mafia member we should randomly kill a townie that we have no real suspicions of because he's a bad townie"

See what you did there?  ;)

Except that you're the one who stuck the second "randomly" in there, to make it sound recursive. All Robz and I are talking about is killing a bad townie. So we don't have to deal with them later. Of course, killing a Mafia is still preferable.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #289 on: May 30, 2012, 09:13:59 pm »


(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

In light of this, and the fact that if O is ok with a random lynch, he must be ok with being lynched, and the fact I don't like O's tone and he's been getting annoying, Vote: O

I'm not OK with someone I know to be town being lynched.  ;) But of course you have no real evidence that I'm not, so my defense is nearly as pointless as your argument.

And if we're lynching "bad" people, lets go look at Mafia II and lynch Jonatheoh, Robz or Galzria: They're all either bad townies or excellent Mafia, and both are frightening concepts.

Oh, yeah go ahead and leave out Volt. O and Volt are clearly mafia partners ;)

Honestly, you sort of make a good point there, but I at least am going to try hard to be less terrible this game.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #290 on: May 30, 2012, 09:16:04 pm »

*checks first page*
*notices volt is in this game*

my apologies, I didn't remember because he hasn't posted recently enough  :P Problems of a 13 player mafia game.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #291 on: May 30, 2012, 09:21:39 pm »

I hear ya on that one. OK everybody, I am BORED. So I propose a game. Imagine that Insomniac posted that the new deadline was tomorrow and everyone has to vote for someone. Who would you vote for and why? (Note: don't ACTUALLY vote.)

And ... GO!

(I will be immediately suspicious of anyone who chooses not to participate in this exercise)
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #292 on: May 30, 2012, 09:25:17 pm »

Do I need to take it seriously J?

Otherwise I suspect Theory for changing the fact that posts in Mafia games don't count towards your forum posts.... AFTER I up'd to a very undesirable rank of Duke. It's premeditated!
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #293 on: May 30, 2012, 09:27:32 pm »

Do I need to take it seriously J?

Otherwise I suspect Theory for changing the fact that posts in Mafia games don't count towards your forum posts.... AFTER I up'd to a very undesirable rank of Duke. It's premeditated!

Why won't you seriously accuse someone? You're denying us of information and discussion by not responding seriously! You should be lynched!!!

Yes I'm joking, but not really. You aren't being any better than I.


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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #294 on: May 30, 2012, 09:29:01 pm »

On the flip side, I would toss up between O, for reasons stated in earlier posts. Maybe V for being active when it's convenient. And possibly you for making me do such a silly exercise.

I really have no hard suspicions. But I'll do my job and nettle trying to find SOMETHING.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #295 on: May 30, 2012, 09:30:24 pm »


I really have no hard suspicions. But I'll do my job and nettle trying to find SOMETHING.

And inevitably vote a townie, as Mafia aren't going to suspicious in the way you keep looking for them to be. 
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #296 on: May 30, 2012, 09:32:11 pm »


I really have no hard suspicions. But I'll do my job and nettle trying to find SOMETHING.

And inevitably vote a townie, as Mafia aren't going to suspicious in the way you keep looking for them to be. 

So you say. And most likely, you're probably half right. We'll likely hit town. But we'll be better off day 2 than having hit town via a random number generator.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #297 on: May 30, 2012, 09:34:31 pm »

*sigh*
I would vote for O.
In fact, hmmm...
Vote: O.
Why? For the reasons posted above. A few being:
-He insists on playing  strategy that i detrimental to th team and beneficial to the mafia.
-He has not defended his view.
-
I don't like O's tone and he's been getting annoying
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I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #298 on: May 30, 2012, 09:35:07 pm »


I really have no hard suspicions. But I'll do my job and nettle trying to find SOMETHING.

And inevitably vote a townie, as Mafia aren't going to suspicious in the way you keep looking for them to be. 

So you say. And most likely, you're probably half right. We'll likely hit town. But we'll be better off day 2 than having hit town via a random number generator.

Except we won't be.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #299 on: May 30, 2012, 09:39:39 pm »

I'm honestly I'm the same boat at this point M. He's being purposefully unhelpful and blind to simple logic and reasoning. He wants to play this game in a generator, and the town losses that way. There's not much more I can say. Mafia or Town, of he's unwilling to help town win, I would rather not have him, because he's as good as Mafia at that point.

VOTE: O
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #300 on: May 30, 2012, 09:40:00 pm »

*sigh*
I would vote for O.
In fact, hmmm...
Vote: O.
Why? For the reasons posted above. A few being:
-He insists on playing  strategy that i detrimental to th team and beneficial to the mafia.
-He has not defended his view.
-
I don't like O's tone and he's been getting annoying
Wow that is riddled with typos. playing a strategy
that is detrimental
to the team.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #301 on: May 30, 2012, 09:43:18 pm »

He wants to play the game in a generator

for the first day. If you really think I play generator style the entire game, look at Mafia I. Oh wait, you just are happy someone whose not you is being lynched.

the town loses this way
no, it doesn't. The point of random voting is to either force the mafia the vote random or to narrow down who the mafia are (by not voting randomly)

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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #302 on: May 30, 2012, 09:49:42 pm »

If Volt would like to jump on me too, that'd be perfect. Then everyone that has made II the disaster that it is would be coalescing around me  ;)

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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #303 on: May 30, 2012, 09:49:54 pm »

He wants to play the game in a generator

for the first day. If you really think I play generator style the entire game, look at Mafia I. Oh wait, you just are happy someone whose not you is being lynched.

the town loses this way
no, it doesn't. The point of random voting is to either force the mafia the vote random or to narrow down who the mafia are (by not voting randomly)

And once again with no defense of how day 2 starts any different than day 1 if you lynched randomly day 1 and now have NOTHING to base an argument on. If you randomly pick day 1, then you MIGHT AS WELL randomly pick day 2. You'll be no closer to winning when dawn arises.

As for Mafia-I, I won't talk about it as a) it's not over, and b) not everybody has or should be required to read it. Suffice to say though, your success was in no way driven by your "random" aproach, but instead by the efforts and methods of others to draw out real information.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #304 on: May 30, 2012, 09:50:46 pm »

Well the thing is I really wasn't very suspicious of O when I wrote the response to his post, I was more frustrated with his unwillingness to move past pure randomness. Since that I have become both more and less suspicious with him but ATM he's seeming town to me.

If we had to vote tomorrow I may vote def because I've seen like NOTHING from him and certainly not anything since things got a bit more serious.

But I think I would actually vote for Robz888 because he seems to be really trying hard to blend in during this game. I know that he's involved with all three other forum games but even when he has posted he has seemingly lacked conviction. Except for the mafia, we're all pretty much in the dark here. Yet it looks to me like he is intentionally trying only to fit in while not adding terribly much. This seems a little out of place and thus a little suspicious.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #305 on: May 30, 2012, 09:52:39 pm »

your success was in no way driven by your "random" aproach, but instead by the efforts and methods of others to draw out real information.

Now you're just trying to provoke me  ;). Don't worry, I'll ignore your baseless claim.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #306 on: May 30, 2012, 09:57:15 pm »

the town loses this way
no, it doesn't. The point of random voting is to either force the mafia the vote random or to narrow down who the mafia are (by not voting randomly)

I don't understand this sentence.  Force the mafia to vote randomly?  While that's not as optimal for them as picking their targets, the likely result is still in their favour:

1. There are far more Town than Mafia, so random is more likely to hit Town.
2. If people all vote randomly it is unlikely any one person will receive 7 votes.  That means no lynch, free night kill for Mafia.
3. Random voting gives no useful information to the town.  The accuser does not have motive or suspicion, nor does he need it.  The accused has no defense.

Your second statement ("by not voting randomly") is what we want to do.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #307 on: May 30, 2012, 10:06:58 pm »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (3) - O, Captain Frisk, yuma
O (3) - Morgrim7, Galzria, jotheonah

Not Voting (7) - Robz, def, Dsell, Eevee, michaeljb, Voltgloss, eHalcyon
« Last Edit: May 30, 2012, 10:19:10 pm by Insomniac »
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #308 on: May 30, 2012, 10:10:57 pm »

jotheonah voted for O
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #309 on: May 30, 2012, 10:19:00 pm »

jotheonah voted for O

I had missed that thanks
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #310 on: May 30, 2012, 10:32:31 pm »

Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #311 on: May 30, 2012, 10:35:39 pm »

Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.

+1 for doing the right thing. Unless you're Mafia covering your tracks. Hmm, ah, +1 anyway. I'm feeling nice today.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #312 on: May 30, 2012, 10:36:43 pm »

Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.

I'm too cautious for my own good.  It's going to look like hedging, eh?  Against an early deadline, I'd probably vote for either Morgrim or O, due to the random voting.  However, I'm not convinced either are the Mafia either.  I expect that the actual spies will be talking a bit but not getting into any actual confrontations.  Hum.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #313 on: May 30, 2012, 10:42:17 pm »

I am going to ask a question. Can we put the kibosh on references to Mafia II--or I for that matter. Many of us aren't involved in that and frankly don't have the time to go read through 20+ pages to understand what you are talking about there. From my understanding this is supposed to be a separate game, so from this point onward I am going to ignore any reference to another Mafia game because I don't have the time to do the research to back up any claim.

I am off to an early bed. I am leaving my vote as it stands for Morgrim7. Because of his response to Captain_Frisk's vote. His explanation for why he reacted that way isn't good enough for me.

And this is exactly what I'm referring to - you've posted... but have done so with no substance.  You hint that the vote for def is random, but there's no way for us to verify.  There's no explanation given for the vote.

Status:
Suspicious: Morgrim7, Galzria (slightly)
Not suspicious: none
Vote: Morgrim7
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #314 on: May 30, 2012, 10:50:57 pm »

I don't think we're going to settle the Random vs. Non Random Day 1 vote start.

O isn't proposing that we all lynch randomly, he's just starting his initial voting position (which is nearly meaningless) with randomness.  Regardless of whether or not it is an acceptable play - I believe that O believes that it is positive - based on how it looks one of those other games is going, and his behavior there.  The closer we get to the kill vote, the more discussion we have about a candidate and the more information we get on voting patterns, and it doesn't really matter if we started on the wagon because of a RNG, or because I accused them of having a high post count, or we accused them because they were eating weenies during the long weekend and not posting enough.

I've been searching for Day 1 lynch stats elsewhere, to see whether town performs better or worse than random on average.  I would tend to think worse - given that if not voting randomly the mafia is going to steer the voting the way they want it to go, but I don't think any of us are going to solve this without creating MafiaCouncilRoom.com and collecting data for a few months.

After re-reading Mafia II, I'm going to agree with Dsell regarding Morgrim's "Unorthodox Posting" and UNVOTE.  I really don't like the concept of a unverifiable random vote, especially given that we were starting to have some real discussion, but doing that after the votes started to pile up AND everyone had already railed on O for it strikes me as Unorthodox Play, rather than Scummy.




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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #315 on: May 30, 2012, 11:00:42 pm »

Well, I finally had a chance to review all the posts to date, and now I have to think about what I've seen.  I do have a few quick comments though.

First, I have to echo Dsell's warning about jumping on Morgrim simply for his posting style.  That was a key mistake we made in Mafia II.  Does that mean I think Morgrim is Town?  No, I don't have enough of a read on him yet.  But we should each be careful about not letting our read get confused simply because another player's posting style doesn't match ours.

O's behavior is puzzling though.  He seems to be willfully courting antagonism, and from a lot of different sources.  I'm having trouble seeing that as reasonable Town play or reasonable Mafia play.  O, could you give us some insight in what you're trying to accomplish?

A word of clarification about my "bandwagons can happen quickly" post a while back:  We have to remember there may be a Serial Killer among us, alongside 3 Mafia.  That means that a lynch could potentially happen with as few as 3 Townies on it.  Not LIKELY, as it'd be very transparent Mafia play, but possible.  Something to keep in mind.

jotheonah asked about who we'd vote for if Insomniac suddenly moved the deadline to tomorrow.  O is the obvious target, but he's SO obvious I'm not sure that's the right move.  I've already made my thoughts clear on Morgrim.  If forced to a vote right now, I'd vote for eHalcyon because of his going back and forth between O and Morgrim.  Yes, you're right eHalcyon, what you're doing so far does look like hedging.  :)

I echo the sentiment that we should hear more from def and Robz.  I'm of course aware that I wasn't posting very much over the last 48 hours either.  But at least I gave fair warning that was going to be the case! 

A final impression:  out of everyone else so far, Dsell seems to be making the most generally reasonable, well-thought-out posts.  If I had to pick "most likely other player to be Town" at this very moment, I'd pick him. 

Oh, and Galzria - don't want you to feel like I'm ignoring your suspicion either.  What can I say to convince you that I did, in fact, work at the office through last night and am currently running off of 2 hours sleep?  Perhaps I should let my posting ability spontaneously decomsgiprneja;hjbkn;bkjd;
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #316 on: May 30, 2012, 11:07:49 pm »

Ahh Volt. Made me chuckle, so that's good enough for me right now. I've still got my eye on you though!
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #317 on: May 30, 2012, 11:08:45 pm »

jotheonah asked about who we'd vote for if Insomniac suddenly moved the deadline to tomorrow.  O is the obvious target, but he's SO obvious I'm not sure that's the right move.  I've already made my thoughts clear on Morgrim.  If forced to a vote right now, I'd vote for eHalcyon because of his going back and forth between O and Morgrim.  Yes, you're right eHalcyon, what you're doing so far does look like hedging.  :)

I won't hold it against you.  In my defense, I'm going between them for a single consistent reason!
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #318 on: May 30, 2012, 11:36:17 pm »

OMG IM GOING TO FLIP-FLOP!!!! I MUST BE MAFIA!!!

Captain Frisk is mostly right-- I use the randomizer for initial points of discussion, and my first vote is damn near meaningless. And in my defense, yet again it *did* provoke discussion.

Note that in Mafia I I did not stick with my random vote when it became inconsequential: I switched it when my vote actually mattered.

As for the request to stop Mafia I-II references, I will cease them for now. When the games conclude, I will almost certainly reference them. Sucks for those who did not play in rounds 1-2, but I could reference some Aristotle philosophy for all I cared and the "disadvantage" of not having read it is the same.

Now, I forget who posted this, but one compelling reason is making me not want to lynch Morgrim; He was already lynched as a townie first round, and I would personally be really upset if such a thing happened to me twice in a row.

I really, really think that one (and only one) of the people that voted for me is mafia.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #319 on: May 30, 2012, 11:45:21 pm »

OMG IM GOING TO FLIP-FLOP!!!! I MUST BE MAFIA!!!

Captain Frisk is mostly right-- I use the randomizer for initial points of discussion, and my first vote is damn near meaningless. And in my defense, yet again it *did* provoke discussion.

Note that in Mafia I I did not stick with my random vote when it became inconsequential: I switched it when my vote actually mattered.

As for the request to stop Mafia I-II references, I will cease them for now. When the games conclude, I will almost certainly reference them. Sucks for those who did not play in rounds 1-2, but I could reference some Aristotle philosophy for all I cared and the "disadvantage" of not having read it is the same.

Now, I forget who posted this, but one compelling reason is making me not want to lynch Morgrim; He was already lynched as a townie first round, and I would personally be really upset if such a thing happened to me twice in a row.

I really, really think that one (and only one) of the people that voted for me is mafia.

If the random vote was for the sake of provoking discussion, that's fine.

You say you think that just one of the people that voted for you is Mafia.  What about the people that voted for Morgrim?  What about the people who haven't voted?
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #320 on: May 30, 2012, 11:53:51 pm »

OMG IM GOING TO FLIP-FLOP!!!! I MUST BE MAFIA!!!

Captain Frisk is mostly right-- I use the randomizer for initial points of discussion, and my first vote is damn near meaningless. And in my defense, yet again it *did* provoke discussion.

Note that in Mafia I I did not stick with my random vote when it became inconsequential: I switched it when my vote actually mattered.

As for the request to stop Mafia I-II references, I will cease them for now. When the games conclude, I will almost certainly reference them. Sucks for those who did not play in rounds 1-2, but I could reference some Aristotle philosophy for all I cared and the "disadvantage" of not having read it is the same.

Now, I forget who posted this, but one compelling reason is making me not want to lynch Morgrim; He was already lynched as a townie first round, and I would personally be really upset if such a thing happened to me twice in a row.

I really, really think that one (and only one) of the people that voted for me is mafia.

If the random vote was for the sake of provoking discussion, that's fine.

You say you think that just one of the people that voted for you is Mafia.  What about the people that voted for Morgrim?  What about the people who haven't voted?

Against Morgrim? I don't know. I'm not mafia, I don't think Captain is mafia... maybe Yuma, but its a random suspicious which is what I was just posting against.

People who haven't voted? Well.. if I think at most one are within the O-and-Morgrim Groups, I wonder what I think about nonvoters  ;)
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #321 on: May 31, 2012, 12:02:56 am »

eHalcyon, from a pure math standpoint, O is probably right that one Mafia has voted for him. 3/13 is almost 1/4. So ok, not quite down to the 3 that voted him, but taking into consideration how Mafia play, it's a good hunch. Same goes for 3 votes on Morgrim. Likely there was a Mafia in each group.

Guaranteed? No. But likely. Now, if O means he thinks a specific person in his voters is Mafia, he probably means me (counter-suspecting and all, especially if O is town). And honestly? That's fine. He has every right to. I came after him hard, and stand by my points. I'm glad he's finally taken the time to explain himself better now.

This brings me along to my next thought. If O is actually town, and I am town, and there is a Mafia amongst him and his three accusers, that only leaves Morgrim and Jotheonah. Since I'm not really suspicious of Morgrim, that leaves Jotheonah.

Jotheonah, I want to speak with you. You voted on O first, because you found him "annoying". Not a great reason. And you jumped off (for a decent reason) quickly. It almost feels like you're trying too hard to be town (and it worked at first, I +1'd you). Please respond.

For now, Unvote because he actually seems more willing to help now. (Though I completely understand if he continues to suspect me. Absolutely his right).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #322 on: May 31, 2012, 01:21:26 am »

Wasn't questioning O's hunch, just wondering about his thoughts on the others.  If you want to go purely on math -- there were 6 who voted, 7 who hadn't, so 1 voting for either O or Morgrim, 1 not voting at all, and 1 could go either way.
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #323 on: May 31, 2012, 01:26:23 am »

Wow, a couple new pages since the last post I read. Gonna review for a bit and hopefully get a more substantive post in before I go to bed.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #324 on: May 31, 2012, 02:31:10 am »

Okay, since I have a lot of mafia games going at once, in this game I am aiming to do fewer posts but more substance per post. I think that's more helpful anyway, since there are so many people writing comments and it is a little hard to even keep everyone straight. What I have done so far is to separate people into categories of how I see them behaving. These aren't necessarily "he's suspicious, he's not" categories, just one way of looking at everybody.

Stalwarts:
Jothonah
Voltgloss
Galzria
This group contains people who I feel I know better than other people. All three are exceedingly intelligent and analytical players. They are assets to the town. The down side to them is they are more dangerous if they are mafia. However, I may have a better idea whether they are mafia relative to other people. In any case, none have irritated me or caused me to grow suspicious of them yet.

Odd Balls:
O
Morgrim7
Everyone makes an odd comment now and then, but these two players stand out at the moment. Both chose pure, true random and voted based on it. To be fair, there was no evidence that either vote would lead to a kill. O's vote was for Morgrim, Morgrim's for Def. I don't think that either player behaved in a particularly helpful way, nor do I think their actions make them likely mafia. In fact, they were probably too strange to be mafia. Although Morgrim is so all over the place, I'm not sure I could recognize Mafia Morgrim in any scenario.

Participants:
Eevee
Michaeljb
Dsell
eHalycon
Captain_Frisk
This is the group of people (all new players) who have been somewhat active. And all of them, to some extent, have done what I consider "mafia middle-grounding." That's when they say something like, "WHat this person did here was suspicious, but then it was also not suspicious." Or they say something serious and then walk it back a bit with a joke. Obviously, this is something everybody does--I do it too--and it's not like a giveaway automatic mafia thing. But I tend to think in a game like this, with this many people, the mafia will want to be posting an "average" number of posts, that make bold claims but not crazy claims, that draw some specific targets but don't pursue them too hard. And lots of emoticons (And oh my goodness does Galzria do that too). So, I'm kind of looking at the people in this group more closely than the others. But we'll see. (Oh, and some of the people in this group have definitely done this more than others. I'd be interested to know if they know that.)

MIA:
def
yuma
I haven't heard enough from these people to really form an opinion of them. Both got votes already, but I think that was just by accident. Really, I think if they were mafia they might post a bit more.

If my characterizations seem off, please say something. Say something anyway. Just trying to stir the pot a bit.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #325 on: May 31, 2012, 02:49:05 am »

Robz, would you like to respond to the suspicions I put forth in #304?

In your other games (a thousand pardons) you seem to be a Stalwart. I knooow that you have your hands full with all of these games, but in this game you yourself would fit into the "participant" category. Just like you accuse the rest of us participants of doing, you are playing the middle ground. You seem to be unique in the category, because while you fit the suspicions you would be an extremely dangerous mafia to have around.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #326 on: May 31, 2012, 03:12:45 am »

I agree with your assessments Robz.  I would add that your "Stalwarts" have not been particularly stalwart in this game, but that's because it's the first day and they're still tied up in the other games.  As for me, for better or worse, this is just how I play.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #327 on: May 31, 2012, 03:17:40 am »

I agree with your assessments Robz.  I would add that your "Stalwarts" have not been particularly stalwart in this game, but that's because it's the first day and they're still tied up in the other games.  As for me, for better or worse, this is just how I play.

Hey, I take issue with that! (And just for you Robz, ;))
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #328 on: May 31, 2012, 03:51:14 am »

Rereading the thread but didn't quite finish, going to bed now that it's almost 2am my time, will post tomorrow.
So this post has some substance, I can at least say that I think robz's classification of jtotheonah is off, rereading his posts he seems more "participant."

More to come tomorrow.
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def

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #329 on: May 31, 2012, 04:28:05 am »

If we had to vote tomorrow I may vote def because I've seen like NOTHING from him and certainly not anything since things got a bit more serious.

You've seen nothing of me for some reasons.
a) If I have nothing useful to say, I don't say anything. You won't see any flavor-only posts from me.
b) That's the problem with the game. There are people who seem to play it 4 hours a day, and other who don't or can't or won't. Since my last post, it have been two nights for me and one day where I barely had enough time to read the x new pages, not to speak of the y pages to read now. It's not easy to get in on the discussion if the topic you want to address is three pages old.

This is not meant to defend me especially, but addresses all other players who are considered, let's say, mildly suspicious, because they have ominous things like "work" or post in three other games and play a few games Dominion without posting here. Even if some of that was meant to be ironic.

The original aim for players was to post "at least once every 48 hours", minimum, that is. I don't say that I will post every two days only, especially when things really get started, but please don't expect everyone else to post a big, insightful article several times a day either when there is nothing much to say. Only carefully reading and drawing conclusions without posting already takes more time than some may have expected.

Random lynch: They are NOT unhelpful. They are if every player votes randomly and someone gets lynched this way. But not if few players do so and the rest follows. Let's say 3 players vote randomly and 2 pick the same person. This still needs 5 players to non-randomly vote for this person, either providing reasons or not. At the end of the day, you see who voted whom and why, who has casted the final vote, and so on. This is helpful information on day 2.

And even no lynch is achieved, at least discussion starts about how unhelpful randomly voting is, which means randomly voting was helpful because it caused the discussion.
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def

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #330 on: May 31, 2012, 05:46:49 am »

No edit rule makes me look at stupid grammatical errors I didn't think I was capable of producing. :(
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #331 on: May 31, 2012, 08:07:42 am »

Quick reply to G before work.

I was bating O. He didn't seem to be taking the game seriously, I thought a few votes on his head would change that. It did. Look how he's been playing lately. As soon as he looked to be in any real danger I unvoted.  Just like my "exercise" post, I'm looking for ways to generate meaningful replies for analysis. I think it's working.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #332 on: May 31, 2012, 09:14:57 am »

I was excited to see 2 new pages of posts, but it looks like the fire has settled down.

If I had to vote, it would be for either jotheonah or Galzria - as I assume any time we start hammering someone, the mafia is going to want to have a mix of guys in... some early, some late - as someone pointed out, it would be pretty bad for the votes to be 5,6,7.  I've already un-voted Morgrim, so that leaves jotheonah and Galzria.

And because I think that vague accusations of suspicion are meaningless without some real meat in the game.

VOTE: jotheonah - for being ok with killing a bad townie.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #333 on: May 31, 2012, 09:53:54 am »

CF, did you see my unvote?

If I were "ok with killing him" wouldn't I have left my vote there, instead of abandoning my own bandwagon right when it was picking up speed? Come on. I just explained what I was doing there.  Now if it comes down to deadline and I have ZERO mafia suspicions, at that point I will absolutely advocate that we kill an unhelpful townie - since at that point they're just as likely to be mafia as anyone else, and they're also annoying. That's just being pragmatic. But I'm not going to kill someone I think is town right now, which is why I changed my vote.

Captain Frisk, what kind of real meat are you hoping to see on Day 1?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #334 on: May 31, 2012, 09:54:46 am »

I am slightly suspicious of Jotheonah over the O exchange, but not enough to vote him. To clarify, my reasons:

- Easy on: He was the first to vote, but kinda jumped into an ongoing exchange without really adding much reasoning outside O annoying him. He mostly reiterated my already voiced concerns.

- Easy off: Don't get me wrong here, I do respect unvotes when people are planning on going dark. But it just seemed to come so suddenly, and was generally before O started being helpful. It felt like a "eh, this is going nowhere and I don't want to seem suspicious" move.

Still, J, I appreciate your efforts to drive day 1 conversation. Robz may be right that amongst the "second game" players, we are less tentative and more willing to "get our hands dirty" (yes, a Mafia'ish quote) as it were. I think everybody will get to be this way, but I know I was afraid to talk at the start of MY first game, and now look at me! I won't shut up!

I still suspect you though. Unlike Robz, I'm probably MORE suspicious out of the gates towards people who have played before. They'll have a better idea and understanding of what TO say, and what NOT to say, and that's dangerous.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #335 on: May 31, 2012, 10:52:44 am »

CF, did you see my unvote?

If I were "ok with killing him" wouldn't I have left my vote there, instead of abandoning my own bandwagon right when it was picking up speed? Come on. I just explained what I was doing there.  Now if it comes down to deadline and I have ZERO mafia suspicions, at that point I will absolutely advocate that we kill an unhelpful townie - since at that point they're just as likely to be mafia as anyone else, and they're also annoying. That's just being pragmatic. But I'm not going to kill someone I think is town right now, which is why I changed my vote.

Captain Frisk, what kind of real meat are you hoping to see on Day 1?

I did see your unvote, and to be honest - like Galzria, my suspicions are not strong... however with 7 required and 0 on you currently, I don't view my vote on you as especially risky.

My general thinking is that a statement of suspicion is easily shrugged off / ignored etc.  There is no sense of commitment.  It's difficult (without getting out pen and paper) to track who suspects which other players and look for patterns between them.  A vote however, is tallied - its a permanent thing.  We can easily see which players voted together.  As more and more votes tally up - more and more information accrues in a way that doesn't in a vague "I'm suspicious of <X>" way.  I would suggest that at this stage (low vote counts without crazy accusations etc. like Ozle vs. TINAS on M1D2) suspicion without voting is an anti-town play.  It lets you point the finger in a non committal way. 

As we start to get up on a 3-4 votes on a single individual - then my mind changes, and votes are suddenly alot more dangerous - and thus suspicious.

So for now - I'm going to leave my vote.  If a bandwagon gets rolling and my suspicions are assuaged, then I'll unvote before things get out of hand.


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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #336 on: May 31, 2012, 11:37:01 am »

I am slightly suspicious of Jotheonah over the O exchange, but not enough to vote him. To clarify, my reasons:

- Easy on: He was the first to vote, but kinda jumped into an ongoing exchange without really adding much reasoning outside O annoying him. He mostly reiterated my already voiced concerns.

- Easy off: Don't get me wrong here, I do respect unvotes when people are planning on going dark. But it just seemed to come so suddenly, and was generally before O started being helpful. It felt like a "eh, this is going nowhere and I don't want to seem suspicious" move.

I still don't quite understand how jumping OFF a bandwagon is a mafia move. If it was to avoid suspicion ... well, well done me because it clearly made me MORE suspicious, not less. Otherwise, once a mafia's vote goes down, especially if the wagon still has fuel, I don't expect them to move it.

I envisioned a nightmare scenario where I went to bed with my vote and a few others on O and woke up to find I'd helped lynch town. Pretty unlikely, I know, but I'm still happy not to have risked it.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #337 on: May 31, 2012, 12:17:50 pm »

My general thinking is that a statement of suspicion is easily shrugged off / ignored etc.  There is no sense of commitment.  It's difficult (without getting out pen and paper) to track who suspects which other players and look for patterns between them.  A vote however, is tallied - its a permanent thing.  We can easily see which players voted together.  As more and more votes tally up - more and more information accrues in a way that doesn't in a vague "I'm suspicious of <X>" way.  I would suggest that at this stage (low vote counts without crazy accusations etc. like Ozle vs. TINAS on M1D2) suspicion without voting is an anti-town play.  It lets you point the finger in a non committal way. 

Well, I don't agree. Suspicion without voting is, I think, preferable, though admittedly hard to keep track of. But I'm a little concerned that, "Hey let's have more votes, more votes everywhere! Don't just accuse, vote!" is something the mafia would say.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #338 on: May 31, 2012, 12:35:47 pm »

Robz, would you like to respond to the suspicions I put forth in #304?

In your other games (a thousand pardons) you seem to be a Stalwart. I knooow that you have your hands full with all of these games, but in this game you yourself would fit into the "participant" category. Just like you accuse the rest of us participants of doing, you are playing the middle ground. You seem to be unique in the category, because while you fit the suspicions you would be an extremely dangerous mafia to have around.

Sure. Here is your post #304:

Well the thing is I really wasn't very suspicious of O when I wrote the response to his post, I was more frustrated with his unwillingness to move past pure randomness. Since that I have become both more and less suspicious with him but ATM he's seeming town to me.

If we had to vote tomorrow I may vote def because I've seen like NOTHING from him and certainly not anything since things got a bit more serious.

But I think I would actually vote for Robz888 because he seems to be really trying hard to blend in during this game. I know that he's involved with all three other forum games but even when he has posted he has seemingly lacked conviction. Except for the mafia, we're all pretty much in the dark here. Yet it looks to me like he is intentionally trying only to fit in while not adding terribly much. This seems a little out of place and thus a little suspicious.

I'm not trying to blend in this game, I think it's just a side effect of so many people saying so much (much of it not important, until more recently). If I railroad over everything everybody says all of the time, I'm not going to learn anything. So I'm poking, prodding, gathering my suspicions. It may not look like the way I've played in other games--I do make conscious changes, and there are more people here, and I'm stretched a little thinner--and it's definitely in the ballpark of Participant behavior.

And... you are near the top on my list of suspicions, as you seem to have guessed. Your posts nicely fit the model I outlined, with a mix of serious and then taking-it-back plus humor and emoticons. Frequent but not too frequent.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #339 on: May 31, 2012, 12:39:11 pm »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (2) - O, yuma
O (1) - Morgrim7
jotheonah (1) - Captain_Frisk

Not Voting (9) - Robz, def, Dsell, Eevee, michaeljb, Voltgloss, eHalcyon, jotheonah, Galzria
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #340 on: May 31, 2012, 12:41:48 pm »

Deadline: 1 Week So June 3

Insomniac, what time (and timezone) is our deadline on June 3?
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #341 on: May 31, 2012, 12:54:52 pm »

I still suspect you though. Unlike Robz, I'm probably MORE suspicious out of the gates towards people who have played before. They'll have a better idea and understanding of what TO say, and what NOT to say, and that's dangerous.
Well, I don't agree. Suspicion without voting is, I think, preferable, though admittedly hard to keep track of. But I'm a little concerned that, "Hey let's have more votes, more votes everywhere! Don't just accuse, vote!" is something the mafia would say.
Galzaria, I completely agree with you. For some reason he almost seems to give immunity to those he's played with while acknowledging that you would all be very dangerous to have as mafia. Practically ignoring that possibility seems very strange. I'm also a bit baffled by the statement above, Robz. I do agree that a premature bandwagon filled with a bunch of nonchalant votes is dangerous, but votes are of course the backbone of the game, and they are not inappropriate when well-founded.

That statement and several others of yours recently appear to me to be your way (as mafia, if that's the case) to raise your banner against the leaders of the town. You are taking these normal functions like getting people to vote and "making bold claims" and labeling them as suspicious behavior. Like I said, this looks like a mafia way to ensnare the vocal town.

And... you are near the top on my list of suspicions, as you seem to have guessed. Your posts nicely fit the model I outlined, with a mix of serious and then taking-it-back plus humor and emoticons. Frequent but not too frequent.

Show me a post since things got more serious (~page 10 or so) where I've used humor to take anything back or used any emoticon at all. I post when I have something to say, I don't want to bog down those who can't get on the forum too often.

Vote: Robz888

Suspicious suspicious. Your statements all seem very off. You're giving me a real mafia vibe.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #342 on: May 31, 2012, 12:56:21 pm »

You would have needed 6, J. If 6 got on me (and it was clear that I would probably (80%+) be lynched) my plan was to self-hammer and hopefully demonstrate to the town exactly what NOT to do. I'm still not sure whether that would have been a good move on my part: I would have given up myself, but hopefully revised some of the town's voting patterns.

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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #343 on: May 31, 2012, 12:59:55 pm »

Also, to clarify, I somewhat agree with Robz when he says that suspicion without voting is preferable, but only when it works. And frankly, since it takes 7 to lynch, I'm not too concerned anymore about sending one or two votes someone's way. The baffling thing is that he is pinning voting as mafia behavior. Well...yeah, I mean sure they want more votes, but everyone's gotta vote, and you really can't say that everyone is suspicious when they vote based off of convictions.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #344 on: May 31, 2012, 01:09:49 pm »

After re-reading Mafia II, I'm going to agree with Dsell regarding Morgrim's "Unorthodox Posting" and UNVOTE.  I really don't like the concept of a unverifiable random vote, especially given that we were starting to have some real discussion, but doing that after the votes started to pile up AND everyone had already railed on O for it strikes me as Unorthodox Play, rather than Scummy.

My vote for Morgrim7 was very much based on your vote and conversation with him that led him to cast a random vote himself in what I saw as a panicked and defensive move.  You yourself said after his vote that this behavior justified your vote. I am wondering what your reasoning is for unvoting? Can you expand a little more than you did in the quote above. I am having a hard time following the reasoning behind it.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #345 on: May 31, 2012, 01:10:15 pm »

Above was supposed to be addressed to Frisk if you couldn't tell
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #346 on: May 31, 2012, 01:34:49 pm »

After re-reading Mafia II, I'm going to agree with Dsell regarding Morgrim's "Unorthodox Posting" and UNVOTE.  I really don't like the concept of a unverifiable random vote, especially given that we were starting to have some real discussion, but doing that after the votes started to pile up AND everyone had already railed on O for it strikes me as Unorthodox Play, rather than Scummy.

My vote for Morgrim7 was very much based on your vote and conversation with him that led him to cast a random vote himself in what I saw as a panicked and defensive move.  You yourself said after his vote that this behavior justified your vote. I am wondering what your reasoning is for unvoting? Can you expand a little more than you did in the quote above. I am having a hard time following the reasoning behind it.

No problem:  In short: "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence." - (Attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte)

1. I was about to go to bed, and I didn't want to leave a vote hanging when he was at 3

2. DSell's post reminded me to go back to the game you didn't want to reference - but sorry - it's additional information about a player - so its fair game, just like seeing someones most recent activity in the forum at large vs. in game... it lets you draw additional conclusions. 

I voted for him without this information - to me Morgim looked like he was inflating his post count with drivel.  When he random voted, it just confirmed my suspicions.

Then DSell reminded me that Morgim was in the other game - and played somewhat erratically - including a self hammer as vanilla townie - which I do agree is a explicitly bad play - the only thing you know FOR SURE as a vanilla townie is that the game is worse off with you dead. This lead me to believe that Morgrim isn't necessarily a sophisticated player - at which point attribution of suspicious behavior had an easier explanation - Hanlon's Razor.

As other's have pointed out: O is also difficult to get a read on.  With him - I suspect that this is intentional - since even if he is town - the Mafia may not want to night kill him because he stirs up the pot so much.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #347 on: May 31, 2012, 01:56:56 pm »

Just a quick note while I have a minute.

If 6 got on me (and it was clear that I would probably (80%+) be lynched) my plan was to self-hammer and hopefully demonstrate to the town exactly what NOT to do. I'm still not sure whether that would have been a good move on my part: I would have given up myself, but hopefully revised some of the town's voting patterns.

If you are town, self-hammering yourself is bad play, because it deprives the town of important knowledge - specifically, the knowledge of who would have cast the hammering vote. 
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #348 on: May 31, 2012, 02:08:13 pm »

Just a quick note while I have a minute.

If 6 got on me (and it was clear that I would probably (80%+) be lynched) my plan was to self-hammer and hopefully demonstrate to the town exactly what NOT to do. I'm still not sure whether that would have been a good move on my part: I would have given up myself, but hopefully revised some of the town's voting patterns.

If you are town, self-hammering yourself is bad play, because it deprives the town of important knowledge - specifically, the knowledge of who would have cast the hammering vote.

Maybe it's a point born of experience, but I felt the same way reading that. Still, I've been on O my share, so had decided not to say anything if I was the only person who found this strange. What I find odd, is I'm SURE he knows this. He has indicated more than once that he has followed M-II. I can't believe he will have missed Morgrim's self-lynching as a Vanilla Townie. Hum.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #349 on: May 31, 2012, 02:10:46 pm »

No self-hammering, please. Never again.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #350 on: May 31, 2012, 02:11:10 pm »

FYI all, Mafia I just finished.  So those who didn't feel right commenting on other games that were still pending - well, Mafia I at least is fair game now.

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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #351 on: May 31, 2012, 02:11:41 pm »

Deadline: 1 Week So June 3

Insomniac, what time (and timezone) is our deadline on June 3?

11:59pm PDT
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #352 on: May 31, 2012, 02:38:47 pm »

Ok so this is a few pages old now, but in going back through each player's posts one thing that stood out to me was Morgrim7's behavior before the vote. Specifically, in a couple of his flavorful journal entries he said he was not going to vote until he had more information (#194 and #236). Then after O had random voted him, and Frisk joined in for Morgrim making unhelpful posts (#251), Morgrim's reaction was to unhelpfully post and vote random(#252, #254), casting aside that earlier notion of waiting for more information. It seems like a really panicked response, and why would he panic if he had nothing to hide?

Like Frisk says with the attributed to Napoleon quote, this could just be incompetence, but it feels weird to me.

And Morgrim's more recent vote for O strikes me as "Oh, you voted for me? Well I'll vote for you." And Morgrim has wanted O to defend his view for random voting (#297), but I feel that he did: he said it was done to generate discussion (which it clearly has) and importantly, he would change his vote when it matters (#318). I'm not sure what more Morgrim could be looking for from O.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #353 on: May 31, 2012, 02:46:15 pm »

Ok so this is a few pages old now, but in going back through each player's posts one thing that stood out to me was Morgrim7's behavior before the vote. Specifically, in a couple of his flavorful journal entries he said he was not going to vote until he had more information (#194 and #236). Then after O had random voted him, and Frisk joined in for Morgrim making unhelpful posts (#251), Morgrim's reaction was to unhelpfully post and vote random(#252, #254), casting aside that earlier notion of waiting for more information. It seems like a really panicked response, and why would he panic if he had nothing to hide?

Like Frisk says with the attributed to Napoleon quote, this could just be incompetence, but it feels weird to me.

And Morgrim's more recent vote for O strikes me as "Oh, you voted for me? Well I'll vote for you." And Morgrim has wanted O to defend his view for random voting (#297), but I feel that he did: he said it was done to generate discussion (which it clearly has) and importantly, he would change his vote when it matters (#318). I'm not sure what more Morgrim could be looking for from O.

There is a perfectly good explanation for Morgrim's behavior: He is crazy. Not mafia, not townie, not special role, just crazy.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #354 on: May 31, 2012, 02:49:08 pm »

Just a quick note while I have a minute.

If 6 got on me (and it was clear that I would probably (80%+) be lynched) my plan was to self-hammer and hopefully demonstrate to the town exactly what NOT to do. I'm still not sure whether that would have been a good move on my part: I would have given up myself, but hopefully revised some of the town's voting patterns.

If you are town, self-hammering yourself is bad play, because it deprives the town of important knowledge - specifically, the knowledge of who would have cast the hammering vote.

Yeah, saying he's going to self-hammer is enough for me. 

VOTE: O

Re: Morgrim... a plausible explanation is that he did indeed panic, but not because he had something to hide.  As others have pointed out, it would really, really suck if he got day-1 lynched two games in a row!
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #355 on: May 31, 2012, 02:53:30 pm »

Ok so this is a few pages old now, but in going back through each player's posts one thing that stood out to me was Morgrim7's behavior before the vote. Specifically, in a couple of his flavorful journal entries he said he was not going to vote until he had more information (#194 and #236). Then after O had random voted him, and Frisk joined in for Morgrim making unhelpful posts (#251), Morgrim's reaction was to unhelpfully post and vote random(#252, #254), casting aside that earlier notion of waiting for more information. It seems like a really panicked response, and why would he panic if he had nothing to hide?

Like Frisk says with the attributed to Napoleon quote, this could just be incompetence, but it feels weird to me.

And Morgrim's more recent vote for O strikes me as "Oh, you voted for me? Well I'll vote for you." And Morgrim has wanted O to defend his view for random voting (#297), but I feel that he did: he said it was done to generate discussion (which it clearly has) and importantly, he would change his vote when it matters (#318). I'm not sure what more Morgrim could be looking for from O.

There is a perfectly good explanation for Morgrim's behavior: He is crazy. Not mafia, not townie, not special role, just crazy.

Crazy? Yes. But I still like the guy, and think he's nice. :)

On a more serious note (I know, jokes, emoticons, AND serious points, all in ONE post!?! OMGMAFIA), I'm not AS suspicious of O as I was yesterday, but still would like to hear an explanation regarding self-lynching "to prove a point" as I understand it. Also, still watching Jotheonah.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #356 on: May 31, 2012, 03:00:04 pm »

On a more serious note (I know, jokes, emoticons, AND serious points, all in ONE post!?! OMGMAFIA), I'm not AS suspicious of O as I was yesterday, but still would like to hear an explanation regarding self-lynching "to prove a point" as I understand it. Also, still watching Jotheonah.

I tried to mentally think of a situation in which self lynching made sense... and failed to do so.  Maybe if everyone other than you had voted - lets say 3-3 with 7 players remaining - and you knew - 100% that the other player was a more powerful role than you - AND - one of the people voting for you was about to switch their vote, then maybe it would make sense.

On Day 1?  I feel like its more of a table flip as you look at nearly certain death.... You can't fire me... I QUIT!

Regarding O - I'm going to to go with crazy until something concrete says otherwise.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #357 on: May 31, 2012, 03:26:39 pm »

Voting against whoever hammers the innocent person is a trap 90% of the time, unless Mafia are inept.

And self-hammering isn't to protect a power-role; it's to release information to the town by proving that I am a townie by ensuring I'm lynched. Honestly, it's still a very minor difference because if you have 6 you're probably dead anyways.

I find it funny that eHalycon voted for me for my position of self-hammering, as it may very well allow me to self hammer in a bit.  ;)
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #358 on: May 31, 2012, 03:28:48 pm »

Ok so this is a few pages old now, but in going back through each player's posts one thing that stood out to me was Morgrim7's behavior before the vote. Specifically, in a couple of his flavorful journal entries he said he was not going to vote until he had more information (#194 and #236). Then after O had random voted him, and Frisk joined in for Morgrim making unhelpful posts (#251), Morgrim's reaction was to unhelpfully post and vote random(#252, #254), casting aside that earlier notion of waiting for more information. It seems like a really panicked response, and why would he panic if he had nothing to hide?

Like Frisk says with the attributed to Napoleon quote, this could just be incompetence, but it feels weird to me.

And Morgrim's more recent vote for O strikes me as "Oh, you voted for me? Well I'll vote for you." And Morgrim has wanted O to defend his view for random voting (#297), but I feel that he did: he said it was done to generate discussion (which it clearly has) and importantly, he would change his vote when it matters (#318). I'm not sure what more Morgrim could be looking for from O.

There is a perfectly good explanation for Morgrim's behavior: He is crazy. Not mafia, not townie, not special role, just crazy.

Crazy? Yes. But I still like the guy, and think he's nice. :)

On a more serious note (I know, jokes, emoticons, AND serious points, all in ONE post!?! OMGMAFIA), I'm not AS suspicious of O as I was yesterday, but still would like to hear an explanation regarding self-lynching "to prove a point" as I understand it. Also, still watching Jotheonah.

Keep watching. I might do a trick.  :P
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #359 on: May 31, 2012, 03:32:17 pm »

Voting against whoever hammers the innocent person is a trap 90% of the time, unless Mafia are inept.

And self-hammering isn't to protect a power-role; it's to release information to the town by proving that I am a townie by ensuring I'm lynched. Honestly, it's still a very minor difference because if you have 6 you're probably dead anyways.

I find it funny that eHalycon voted for me for my position of self-hammering, as it may very well allow me to self hammer in a bit.  ;)

Once again, I'm left feeling you are playing VERY anti-town, and I don't know exactly how to react. To your credit... well, you're being very transparent about your actions. But I don't know what else to say here. Terrible, terrible play to self-hammer.

You are the only person who knows your role. Lynching Mafia day 1 is better than lynching Town day 1. I don't *think* you would disagree with either?

SO, if you are town, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing a town lynch) help the town?
SO, if you are Mafia, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing a mafia lynch) help the Mafia?
SO, if you are any other Role, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing whatever faction you're playing for) help your own faction?

No, no, no, no and NO. Gah! *Goes crazy*
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #360 on: May 31, 2012, 03:32:35 pm »

Voting against whoever hammers the innocent person is a trap 90% of the time, unless Mafia are inept.

And self-hammering isn't to protect a power-role; it's to release information to the town by proving that I am a townie by ensuring I'm lynched. Honestly, it's still a very minor difference because if you have 6 you're probably dead anyways.

But, but... fallacies...
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #361 on: May 31, 2012, 03:34:16 pm »

SO, if you are any other Role, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing whatever faction you're playing for) help your own faction?

Actually, this might be the answer we were looking for. Maybe he has a role that makes him more valuable to us dead, but he has to cast the ultimate vote himself. Suicide Cop or something?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #362 on: May 31, 2012, 03:35:23 pm »

SO, if you are any other Role, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing whatever faction you're playing for) help your own faction?

Actually, this might be the answer we were looking for. Maybe he has a role that makes him more valuable to us dead, but he has to cast the ultimate vote himself. Suicide Cop or something?

Could you provide more info? I'm not (and I know this is true of others) familiar with possible roles this could be true of.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #363 on: May 31, 2012, 03:38:31 pm »

SO, if you are any other Role, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing whatever faction you're playing for) help your own faction?

Actually, this might be the answer we were looking for. Maybe he has a role that makes him more valuable to us dead, but he has to cast the ultimate vote himself. Suicide Cop or something?

Could you provide more info? I'm not (and I know this is true of others) familiar with possible roles this could be true of.

Others may not be familiar with such a role, but O is.

I once again claim Jester.

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Jester

If the Jester gets lynched, he wins.

Further relevant reading:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=BBB%27s_Gambit
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #364 on: May 31, 2012, 03:40:24 pm »

Well, that would make things complicated. Now we can't kill O at least until we've investigated him. Assuming we have a cop.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #365 on: May 31, 2012, 03:43:00 pm »

First of all, sorry for being busy and not posting for a while. Just caught up with everything.. oh so much reading. Makes me forget the stuff I had to say four pages back.. should really try to get online every 5 hours or so to not miss out on stuff.

Oh well, I'll chime in with my hunches now:

Suspicious: johtheonah (Something feels very off here. I'll try to think of a way explain this when I have more time, I actually meant to just post a list now but I started writing the neutral column first and had something to say about everyone of those so I feel I've got to do the same here) > O (you've got to know that is bad bad town play.. kind of weird though, dont really think you would go that route if you were mafia either but.. eh, pretty confident that cant be a power townie role at least) > Morgrim (was my #1 suspect until someone posted he was just like this in some other game where he was town. Still not exaclty convinced but certainly helps his case)

Neutral: michaeljb (you post a lot yet I still dont remember any of your opinions. have you actually said much anything?), def (posting so little, hard to say), Galzria (posts a lot, some of it looks mafia-ish, some of it townish. undecided still but inclined to believe you're clean and sincere), Captain_Frisk (I find myself agreeing with a lot of your posts but am still not convinced. somehow it feels like you arent 100% honest / helping town as much as you could if you really wanted to)

I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).

???: Robz, half the time you seem like a sure townie, then you go around and say something too stupid for a guy that smart and start looking suspicious again. Your playing style is very good for the game though, so if I was equally suspicious of you and someone else, I'd rather vote for the someone else.

If the lynch was tomorrow morning, I'd pick either O or johtheonah but hopefully we'll get more info before we have to cross that bridge. Everything still looks very puzzling, I find myself hoping I could be "sure" of someone so that I could really start to hammer that person instead of posting these somewhat vague thoughts (sorry guys, I really dont have anything better to offer). Mafia seems to be playing very well which makes me suspect the silent ones and the more experienced ones more (and johtheonah seems to be the only one of my 3 suspects above who fits either of these labels so arghhhh).
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #366 on: May 31, 2012, 03:45:16 pm »

I really dont think Insomniac would make us play with a jester, seems like a terrible terrible role. That would explain O's behaviour though..
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #367 on: May 31, 2012, 03:48:17 pm »

SO, if you are any other Role, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing whatever faction you're playing for) help your own faction?

Actually, this might be the answer we were looking for. Maybe he has a role that makes him more valuable to us dead, but he has to cast the ultimate vote himself. Suicide Cop or something?

Could you provide more info? I'm not (and I know this is true of others) familiar with possible roles this could be true of.

I didn't realize when I was signing up that the roles would be completely blind about the roles. I am going to say here and now that I don't like it. And if I had known it would be this way I would not have. What is the point of keeping everyone in the dark. Maybe it is more fun for advanced players, but I am not an advanced player.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #368 on: May 31, 2012, 03:48:28 pm »

SO, if you are any other Role, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing whatever faction you're playing for) help your own faction?

Actually, this might be the answer we were looking for. Maybe he has a role that makes him more valuable to us dead, but he has to cast the ultimate vote himself. Suicide Cop or something?

Could you provide more info? I'm not (and I know this is true of others) familiar with possible roles this could be true of.

Others may not be familiar with such a role, but O is.

I once again claim Jester.

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Jester

If the Jester gets lynched, he wins.

Further relevant reading:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=BBB%27s_Gambit

I don't think O would mention the Jester at all if he was one and planned to use that strategy. He mentioned the Jester earlier in this thread? Yeah, I don't think he would have done that. We might have killed him and never even guessed that's what it could be.

I am more capable of seeing him as a mafia whose plan was to make us suspect him of being the Jester so that we never kill him. The fact that he mentioned the Jester in the first place, and then proposed his self-hammering, would seem to support this.

So, these things bring me closer to wanting to lynch O, I guess.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #369 on: May 31, 2012, 03:51:25 pm »

grrr grammar.

I didn't realize when I was signing up that the we would be completely blind about the roles. I am going to say here and now that I don't like it. And if I had known it would be this way I would not have signed up. What is the point of keeping everyone in the dark? Maybe it is more fun for advanced players, but I am not an advanced player.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #370 on: May 31, 2012, 03:52:55 pm »

First of all, sorry for being busy and not posting for a while. Just caught up with everything.. oh so much reading. Makes me forget the stuff I had to say four pages back.. should really try to get online every 5 hours or so to not miss out on stuff.

Oh well, I'll chime in with my hunches now:

Suspicious: johtheonah (Something feels very off here. I'll try to think of a way explain this when I have more time, I actually meant to just post a list now but I started writing the neutral column first and had something to say about everyone of those so I feel I've got to do the same here) > O (you've got to know that is bad bad town play.. kind of weird though, dont really think you would go that route if you were mafia either but.. eh, pretty confident that cant be a power townie role at least) > Morgrim (was my #1 suspect until someone posted he was just like this in some other game where he was town. Still not exaclty convinced but certainly helps his case)

Neutral: michaeljb (you post a lot yet I still dont remember any of your opinions. have you actually said much anything?), def (posting so little, hard to say), Galzria (posts a lot, some of it looks mafia-ish, some of it townish. undecided still but inclined to believe you're clean and sincere), Captain_Frisk (I find myself agreeing with a lot of your posts but am still not convinced. somehow it feels like you arent 100% honest / helping town as much as you could if you really wanted to)

I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).

???: Robz, half the time you seem like a sure townie, then you go around and say something too stupid for a guy that smart and start looking suspicious again. Your playing style is very good for the game though, so if I was equally suspicious of you and someone else, I'd rather vote for the someone else.

If the lynch was tomorrow morning, I'd pick either O or johtheonah but hopefully we'll get more info before we have to cross that bridge. Everything still looks very puzzling, I find myself hoping I could be "sure" of someone so that I could really start to hammer that person instead of posting these somewhat vague thoughts (sorry guys, I really dont have anything better to offer). Mafia seems to be playing very well which makes me suspect the silent ones and the more experienced ones more (and johtheonah seems to be the only one of my 3 suspects above who fits either of these labels so arghhhh).

BWUH? Man I don't mind being accused here and there, shows the town are on their toes and all that, but I just got cited as #1 suspicious person without any concrete (or even abstract) reasons given AT ALL.  Eevee, I was getting a town read off you, but who does that?

I want to believe you're just new and don't see how incredibly suspicious that kind of vague, unsubstantiated pseudo-accusation is.

Also, you say Mafia is playing well, but I'm not sure what that even means at this point. All we can say is that Mafia hasn't done anything unbelievably stupid.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #371 on: May 31, 2012, 03:54:36 pm »

For the record: I have NOT been getting a town read from Eevee.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #372 on: May 31, 2012, 03:55:08 pm »

Voting against whoever hammers the innocent person is a trap 90% of the time, unless Mafia are inept.

And self-hammering isn't to protect a power-role; it's to release information to the town by proving that I am a townie by ensuring I'm lynched. Honestly, it's still a very minor difference because if you have 6 you're probably dead anyways.

I find it funny that eHalycon voted for me for my position of self-hammering, as it may very well allow me to self hammer in a bit.  ;)

I can't see a threat of self-hammering as anything other than an attempt to get people to NOT put you at 6 votes.  Even now, people are becoming confused at your play and concerned that they're misreading your actions.  It's chaotic, and chaos helps the Mafia, not the Town.



@Eevee -- nothing about me?  Does that put me in your Neutral camp?
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #373 on: May 31, 2012, 04:01:22 pm »

Look at this quote:
And all of them, to some extent, have done what I consider "mafia middle-grounding." That's when they say something like, "WHat this person did here was suspicious, but then it was also not suspicious." Or they say something serious and then walk it back a bit with a joke.

Then read some of Robz' own words:
.. and yeah, I dont think I have anything to explain. I feel I've been one of the more helpful posters this far, dont really see any reason to suspect me. Why did you pick me to ask that question?
Just a feeling. Your posts seem to strike a Mafia-esque balance between purposeful and silly.

haha trying my best to be insightful and smart and coming out as silly, thats painful to hear :D

You are insightful. I meant that you are insightful and a little silly, which strikes me as mafia. But it could be that I am exaggerating how silly you are because you are a cute Pokemon.

Then:
So, I insist that pure random voting is the worst thing you can do for the town. O and Morgrim have done it. I ask you both: Why? Do you disagree with my analysis? Will you admit to being the mafia?

And:
For that reason, the true random voting is bad/unhelpful town behavior. So I was asking these bad/unhelpful town players to defend themselves. It doesn't mean I actually think they're mafia. I personally toss accusations around but reserve actual voting for the person I have settled on.

(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)
(Emphasis added)

Here he does both of the things he criticizes in the first quote. In addition, at the end of the last quote he says lynching town could be ok in some situations. Which I don't altogether disagree with (in the case of a townie being extremely unhelpful or distracting, which I don't think is yet the case here), but he was pretty transparently talking about O at that time, even though he had just said that he didn't think he was mafia.

Now, however, he is hopping aboard the O bandwagon.

I am more capable of seeing him as a mafia whose plan was to make us suspect him of being the Jester so that we never kill him. The fact that he mentioned the Jester in the first place, and then proposed his self-hammering, would seem to support this.

So, these things bring me closer to wanting to lynch O, I guess.

I don't really get exactly what O is doing, but he doesn't seem very much like mafia to me. He has done a lot to generate discussion, which is good. However, a LOT of Robz' posts have seemed not-quite-right to me. I could post several more quotes here but I'd really like to hear other people's input. Do most others (besides eevee) just get a town read from him? It's certainly possible that I'm barking up the wrong tree here but everything Robz posts is making me more suspicious to me, not less.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #374 on: May 31, 2012, 04:33:52 pm »

I don't really get exactly what O is doing, but he doesn't seem very much like mafia to me. He has done a lot to generate discussion, which is good. However, a LOT of Robz' posts have seemed not-quite-right to me. I could post several more quotes here but I'd really like to hear other people's input. Do most others (besides eevee) just get a town read from him? It's certainly possible that I'm barking up the wrong tree here but everything Robz posts is making me more suspicious to me, not less.

Wow, I need to be more observant.  Really good observations.  The waffling on Eevee is interesting.  After all the subtle suspicion, add this quote:

For the record: I have NOT been getting a town read from Eevee.

Now I want to vote for two people.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #375 on: May 31, 2012, 04:35:33 pm »

Here he does both of the things he criticizes in the first quote. In addition, at the end of the last quote he says lynching town could be ok in some situations. Which I don't altogether disagree with (in the case of a townie being extremely unhelpful or distracting, which I don't think is yet the case here), but he was pretty transparently talking about O at that time, even though he had just said that he didn't think he was mafia.

Now, however, he is hopping aboard the O bandwagon.

Quote from: Robz888 link=topic=2660.msg44693#msg44693 date=+ Attachments and other options 1338493708
I am more capable of seeing him as a mafia whose plan was to make us suspect him of being the Jester so that we never kill him. The fact that he mentioned the Jester in the first place, and then proposed his self-hammering, would seem to support this.

So, these things bring me closer to wanting to lynch O, I guess.

I don't really get exactly what O is doing, but he doesn't seem very much like mafia to me. He has done a lot to generate discussion, which is good. However, a LOT of Robz' posts have seemed not-quite-right to me. I could post several more quotes here but I'd really like to hear other people's input. Do most others (besides eevee) just get a town read from him? It's certainly possible that I'm barking up the wrong tree here but everything Robz posts is making me more suspicious to me, not less.

Yes, I have done many of the things that I accuse you and Eevee of doing. Obviously, though, I don't suspect myself.

Earlier when I talked about O, I meant that he wouldn't be a terrible loss for the town if we couldn't decide who to vote for. Later, though, this Jester business has me thinking he might be mafia. Thus a change in how I see him.

It's interesting how razor-focused on me you are. And I don't mean it in a condescending "it's interesting... because you are the mafia" sort of way. Just interesting.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #376 on: May 31, 2012, 04:36:06 pm »

After re-reading Mafia II, I'm going to agree with Dsell regarding Morgrim's "Unorthodox Posting" and UNVOTE.  I really don't like the concept of a unverifiable random vote, especially given that we were starting to have some real discussion, but doing that after the votes started to pile up AND everyone had already railed on O for it strikes me as Unorthodox Play, rather than Scummy.

My vote for Morgrim7 was very much based on your vote and conversation with him that led him to cast a random vote himself in what I saw as a panicked and defensive move.  You yourself said after his vote that this behavior justified your vote. I am wondering what your reasoning is for unvoting? Can you expand a little more than you did in the quote above. I am having a hard time following the reasoning behind it.

No problem:  In short: "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence." - (Attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte)

1. I was about to go to bed, and I didn't want to leave a vote hanging when he was at 3

2. DSell's post reminded me to go back to the game you didn't want to reference - but sorry - it's additional information about a player - so its fair game, just like seeing someones most recent activity in the forum at large vs. in game... it lets you draw additional conclusions. 

I voted for him without this information - to me Morgim looked like he was inflating his post count with drivel.  When he random voted, it just confirmed my suspicions.

Then DSell reminded me that Morgim was in the other game - and played somewhat erratically - including a self hammer as vanilla townie - which I do agree is a explicitly bad play - the only thing you know FOR SURE as a vanilla townie is that the game is worse off with you dead. This lead me to believe that Morgrim isn't necessarily a sophisticated player - at which point attribution of suspicious behavior had an easier explanation - Hanlon's Razor.

As other's have pointed out: O is also difficult to get a read on.  With him - I suspect that this is intentional - since even if he is town - the Mafia may not want to night kill him because he stirs up the pot so much.
I can understand your reasoning now, I just don't completely agree with it, and I don't agree with Robz888's quote about it.
There is a perfectly good explanation for Morgrim's behavior: He is crazy. Not mafia, not townie, not special role, just crazy.
There is no way to know if Morgrim is town or not. He might be crazytown, crazymafia, crazyrole. As such his crazy playing isn't a good enough cover.
Here I am going to go out on a limb. If I were Morgrim7 and if I were town I would play especially carefully to not bring attraction to myself. I wouldn't be making myself all that noticeable by panic voting, etc... And if I were Morgrim7 and were Mafia I would be playing erratically in the hopes of continuing his "personality" from previous games to lessen suspicion.

Maybe I am reading too much into this, especially as he hasn't commented yet today. It would be nice to see how he behaves once the pressure is off from others, but until I see more from him my suspicion will remain.

Status:
Suspicious: Morgrim7, Robz888 (I see a lot of the logic others have mentioned about being suspicious about him.)
Not suspicious: Michaeljb
Vote: Morgrim7
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #377 on: May 31, 2012, 04:37:51 pm »

I don't really get exactly what O is doing, but he doesn't seem very much like mafia to me. He has done a lot to generate discussion, which is good. However, a LOT of Robz' posts have seemed not-quite-right to me. I could post several more quotes here but I'd really like to hear other people's input. Do most others (besides eevee) just get a town read from him? It's certainly possible that I'm barking up the wrong tree here but everything Robz posts is making me more suspicious to me, not less.

Wow, I need to be more observant.  Really good observations.  The waffling on Eevee is interesting.  After all the subtle suspicion, add this quote:

For the record: I have NOT been getting a town read from Eevee.

Now I want to vote for two people.


WAIT.  SCRATCH THIS.

For some reason I thought he said that he HAD been getting a town read from Eevee.  Wow.  Reading fail.

I take back what I said about Robz.  Yes he's middling like the rest of us, but he admitted to it as well.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #378 on: May 31, 2012, 04:47:07 pm »

@johtheonah
I realize that (now) posting that so quickly without reading&thinking it through wasnt my greatest idea. I was just eager to post something after my long absence.
As I said, I had so much to read I kind of forgot the earlier stuff and just remembered the mental note I made when someone (ah, seems this was actually you) asked "who would you vote if you had to vote now".. and that was to vote for you, which then made you #1 on the list. Reading your posts again, the stuff that irked me:

- being slightly too hasty to vote for O. I'm highly suspicious of him too, but saying

(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

In light of this, and the fact that if O is ok with a random lynch, he must be ok with being lynched, and the fact I don't like tone and he's been getting annoying, Vote: O

feels like you are very excited to find a reason to lynch someone way too quickly. Lynching someone for being annoying is just stupid (unless you are mafia in which case its a handy excuse).

..but now I realize that was the only thing and I way overreacted, especially considering you unvoted pretty quickly and explained that quite clearly and rationally. I dont think you would abandon the bandwagon if you were mafia and O wasnt, so uhm, I guess I missed that? Reading through so much, it's hard to stay concenctrated.

@eHalcyon
Yeah, I guess not remembering you even play puts you on the neutral column. Same goes for yuma whom I apparently forgot as well.

and @jotheonah
When I said I think mafia is playing well I meant exaclty that - in the irl games I've played its pretty common that a mafia member just completely fuqs up and reveals himself at some point. I thought us having pretty much no clue meant that mafia is doing well but maybe its just normal in these forum games.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #379 on: May 31, 2012, 04:48:36 pm »

Earlier when I talked about O, I meant that he wouldn't be a terrible loss for the town if we couldn't decide who to vote for. Later, though, this Jester business has me thinking he might be mafia. Thus a change in how I see him.

Now that Mafia I is done... ignoring power roles, who was more useful and correct in Mafia I?  ;)

And yes, if I'm a power role of any sort, I'm lying about hammering myself. I wouldn't do that if I were mafia, cop, jailkeeper etc.

I'll calm your fears now: I'm NOT jester. I'm 99% sure there is no jester. Insomniac isn't that cruel of a host.

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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #380 on: May 31, 2012, 04:50:41 pm »



Earlier when I talked about O, I meant that he wouldn't be a terrible loss for the town if we couldn't decide who to vote for. Later, though, this Jester business has me thinking he might be mafia. Thus a change in how I see him.

I posted that as a joke in both Mafia I and III, and didn't expect it to be taken seriously. But OK, any more logs you can throw onto the O-Bonfire.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #381 on: May 31, 2012, 04:53:06 pm »

Earlier when I talked about O, I meant that he wouldn't be a terrible loss for the town if we couldn't decide who to vote for. Later, though, this Jester business has me thinking he might be mafia. Thus a change in how I see him.

Man, I know I've been overanalyzing a lot in this game but I just wouldn't read too much into the jester comment. I mean, he said "once again" (oh here I go analyzing) so it was obviously a reference to something else.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #382 on: May 31, 2012, 04:56:38 pm »

Status:
Suspicious: Morgrim7, Robz888 (I see a lot of the logic others have mentioned about being suspicious about him.)
Not suspicious: Michaeljb
Vote: Morgrim7

Sorry if I missed this, but what has michealjb done to earn (alone amongst all of us) your "Not suspicious" spot?
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #383 on: May 31, 2012, 05:03:32 pm »

@eHalcyon
Yeah, I guess not remembering you even play puts you on the neutral column. Same goes for yuma whom I apparently forgot as well.

Unremembered.  :'(
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #384 on: May 31, 2012, 05:09:40 pm »

@eHalcyon
Yeah, I guess not remembering you even play puts you on the neutral column. Same goes for yuma whom I apparently forgot as well.

Unremembered.  :'(

I bet noone forgets that I'M in this game  ;D
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #385 on: May 31, 2012, 05:13:06 pm »

@eHalcyon
Yeah, I guess not remembering you even play puts you on the neutral column. Same goes for yuma whom I apparently forgot as well.

Unremembered.  :'(

I bet noone forgets that I'M in this game  ;D

+1 for being funny. And using a emoticon, which SOME people (Robz) frown on.  :'(

I'm not trying to make an O bonfire, and I WANT to think you're just playing like TINAS (which worked out well for him AND you guys) - But much like he was day 1, you just seem so determined to be unhelpful to the town with some of your posts! Still, I'm not voting you, and you're not my primary suspicion at this point. But you make me very uncomfortable. Fair enough?
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #386 on: May 31, 2012, 05:14:36 pm »

@eHalcyon
Yeah, I guess not remembering you even play puts you on the neutral column. Same goes for yuma whom I apparently forgot as well.

Unremembered.  :'(

I bet noone forgets that I'M in this game  ;D

+1 for being funny. And using a emoticon, which SOME people (Robz) frown on.  :'(

I'm not trying to make an O bonfire, and I WANT to think you're just playing like TINAS (which worked out well for him AND you guys) - But much like he was day 1, you just seem so determined to be unhelpful to the town with some of your posts! Still, I'm not voting you, and you're not my primary suspicion at this point. But you make me very uncomfortable. Fair enough?

Correction: Your PLAYSTYLE up until this point make me very uncomfortable. Not YOU. You seem like a fine upstanding member of the community. Didn't want there to be confusion. (ie. Don't take anything personally, please! I would feel bad)
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #387 on: May 31, 2012, 05:15:05 pm »

I'm not playing like TINAS, he's far more crazy then I. I mean.. he was OUR FREAKING COP while doing all of that... insane...
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #388 on: May 31, 2012, 05:23:39 pm »

Just a reminder (although it was posted 1 page back) everyone that the deadline is this Sunday.  I don't know about the rest of you - but weekend time for me is typically family time and less computer time - which means less frequent reading and posting.

I am becoming increasingly suspicious of RobZ - expressly lobbying against us voting works in Mafia's favor (see Mafia II No Lynch Discussion - as well as any mafia theory site regarding nolynch option - Eg: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=4044628

Then there was this:

Earlier when I talked about O, I meant that he wouldn't be a terrible loss for the town if we couldn't decide who to vote for. Later, though, this Jester business has me thinking he might be mafia. Thus a change in how I see him.

I'm not a mafia pro - but even I knew that Jester was extremely unlikely to be in the game - especially since our moderator told us there was nothing too crazy.  I don't see how an experienced player could read anything into O's Jester claim as something other than a joke...
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #389 on: May 31, 2012, 05:35:15 pm »

Sorry if I missed this, but what has michealjb done to earn (alone amongst all of us) your "Not suspicious" spot?

You didn't miss it. I did. He and I seem to be on the same line of thinking and as I know I am not suspicious, I believe that he is not either.
Ok so this is a few pages old now, but in going back through each player's posts one thing that stood out to me was Morgrim7's behavior before the vote. Specifically, in a couple of his flavorful journal entries he said he was not going to vote until he had more information (#194 and #236). Then after O had random voted him, and Frisk joined in for Morgrim making unhelpful posts (#251), Morgrim's reaction was to unhelpfully post and vote random(#252, #254), casting aside that earlier notion of waiting for more information. It seems like a really panicked response, and why would he panic if he had nothing to hide?

Like Frisk says with the attributed to Napoleon quote, this could just be incompetence, but it feels weird to me.

And Morgrim's more recent vote for O strikes me as "Oh, you voted for me? Well I'll vote for you." And Morgrim has wanted O to defend his view for random voting (#297), but I feel that he did: he said it was done to generate discussion (which it clearly has) and importantly, he would change his vote when it matters (#318). I'm not sure what more Morgrim could be looking for from O.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #390 on: May 31, 2012, 05:48:31 pm »

Yeah I had completely misread the deadline...this is actually pretty tight timeframe for such a big game.

Because of this, it is really important that people reread everything and try to form an opinion. If we can't make a decision in time, having a no lynch is not a good option. Also, if we stumble on a mafia first round (like I hope I have with Robz), it is important that the town rallies against this person. Assuming the three mafia do not vote for one of their own, it takes 7 of the 10 presumed townies to lynch a mafioso. That's a lot of organization for a bunch of people who don't trust each other, but I'm sure it can be done.

Roleclaiming may also occur, and it's tough because we don't have a set number of roles. One thing that may be truer in this game than others is to be wary of eleventh-hour roleclaims. Even if they are true, it puts the town in a situation where we have to somehow all be online and get 7 votes for someone else or else risk a no lynch situation. So for those of you with roles, if you think you must claim, PLEASE try to avoid claiming at the last possible minute (before the day 1 deadline)...this is a very tough situation because no one wants to claim before they must and it's bad for the town too...BUT we risk a no lynch and it could (and I think it should) look suspicious.

tl;dr We should try to be early and somewhat ahead of schedule with our lynch. Putting it off till the last minute means there is a real chance of a no lynch happening, especially if someone role-claims. Thus, I think these role-claims should...probably still be accepted in the short term but should cast real suspicion on that person if their last-minute role-claim led to a no lynch.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #391 on: May 31, 2012, 05:57:32 pm »

Just a reminder (although it was posted 1 page back) everyone that the deadline is this Sunday.  I don't know about the rest of you - but weekend time for me is typically family time and less computer time - which means less frequent reading and posting.

I am becoming increasingly suspicious of RobZ - expressly lobbying against us voting works in Mafia's favor (see Mafia II No Lynch Discussion - as well as any mafia theory site regarding nolynch option - Eg: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=4044628

Then there was this:

Earlier when I talked about O, I meant that he wouldn't be a terrible loss for the town if we couldn't decide who to vote for. Later, though, this Jester business has me thinking he might be mafia. Thus a change in how I see him.

I'm not a mafia pro - but even I knew that Jester was extremely unlikely to be in the game - especially since our moderator told us there was nothing too crazy.  I don't see how an experienced player could read anything into O's Jester claim as something other than a joke...

Because I don't know how to read O wanting to kill himself unless he has something to gain by doing it. His whole "now the town would know I'm innocent" makes no sense.

I am absolutely not in favor of "No Lynch." We will, and we must, lynch. All I said was that accusations in my view suffice instead of voting, until it's time to vote. Just a personal preference, I suppose.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #392 on: May 31, 2012, 05:57:57 pm »

Why did I give a tl;dr option? Forget that, this is mafia! Everyone should be reading everything! If you skipped to the tl;dr, go back and read the rest of my post!  ;D
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #393 on: May 31, 2012, 06:05:50 pm »

I am absolutely not in favor of "No Lynch." We will, and we must, lynch. All I said was that accusations in my view suffice instead of voting, until it's time to vote. Just a personal preference, I suppose.

Well - it's Thursday evening, and we're lynching on Sunday - so in my mind it's time to start thinking hard about voting.

UNVOTE

You were hiding from this game, and you only showed up when called out, and even while agreeing with the need to lynch - are still opposed to casting votes and trying to move forward.  I am joining DSell and casting my vote.

VOTE: Robz888
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #394 on: May 31, 2012, 06:09:13 pm »

I am absolutely not in favor of "No Lynch." We will, and we must, lynch. All I said was that accusations in my view suffice instead of voting, until it's time to vote. Just a personal preference, I suppose.

Well - it's Thursday evening, and we're lynching on Sunday - so in my mind it's time to start thinking hard about voting.

UNVOTE

You were hiding from this game, and you only showed up when called out, and even while agreeing with the need to lynch - are still opposed to casting votes and trying to move forward.  I am joining DSell and casting my vote.

VOTE: Robz888

I do feel the need to speak up here:

Please go back and read Robz in both Mafia-I, AND Mafia-II. He is VERY consistent in that he doesn't cast a vote until he's made a decision. I'm not defending him from any of your other points, and will review each in detail, but that is a VERY weak case to make against him and I highly encourage anybody considering Robz for that reason to look into his past first.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #395 on: May 31, 2012, 06:10:10 pm »

I find it highly odd that Robz accepted my antics in mafia I but not mafia III. Why such a change?
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #396 on: May 31, 2012, 06:21:04 pm »

I do feel the need to speak up here:

Please go back and read Robz in both Mafia-I, AND Mafia-II. He is VERY consistent in that he doesn't cast a vote until he's made a decision. I'm not defending him from any of your other points, and will review each in detail, but that is a VERY weak case to make against him and I highly encourage anybody considering Robz for that reason to look into his past first.

I actually agree with this. Robz does tend to postpone voting until he is really really sure. Now, even if he were mafia and didn't care who the lynch was as long as it was town, he might delay to appear consistent. Robz' unwillingness to vote on his suspicions is not one of my primary concerns with him. Rather, he is walking down the middle of the road, making only weak accusations (eevee) and hopping on bandwagons (O) when the tide seemed to be turning this way.

Robz is exactly following the pattern he himself said we should look for in the mafia. Does he admit this? Yes, somewhat. Still, he has been wishy-washy, has said some questionable remarks that have struck me wrong, and has been generally not-that-helpful to the town. These are my primary concerns with him.

I'm also concerned that he may string things along as long as possible and when things are looking bad for him Sunday evening, say, "Ok guys I didn't want to reveal this but I am X-role." Which would let him survive another day, would probably mean a no-lynch, and (if everything goes how he would like) could win him some trust. And unless someone has the role that he claims, we can't verify the truth of his claims (until night at least, and then only if we happen to have the cop or some other similar role).
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #397 on: May 31, 2012, 07:28:41 pm »

It seems I have missed a lot. Wow. As a warning, I will only be able to post early in the morning and late at night for the next two days. With that said…
Unvote
Robz:
Encouraging people to post, eh? Careful, I walked on that ice in II, and let me tell you it is not forgiving. I do agree though, we must lynch sometime, whether today, or Sunday.
hmm...
Will post some more when I have thought a bit...
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Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #398 on: May 31, 2012, 07:53:15 pm »

Neutral: michaeljb (you post a lot yet I still dont remember any of your opinions. have you actually said much anything?)

This is about the only post where I really did say much of anything:

Ok so this is a few pages old now, but in going back through each player's posts one thing that stood out to me was Morgrim7's behavior before the vote. Specifically, in a couple of his flavorful journal entries he said he was not going to vote until he had more information (#194 and #236). Then after O had random voted him, and Frisk joined in for Morgrim making unhelpful posts (#251), Morgrim's reaction was to unhelpfully post and vote random(#252, #254), casting aside that earlier notion of waiting for more information. It seems like a really panicked response, and why would he panic if he had nothing to hide?

Like Frisk says with the attributed to Napoleon quote, this could just be incompetence, but it feels weird to me.

And Morgrim's more recent vote for O strikes me as "Oh, you voted for me? Well I'll vote for you." And Morgrim has wanted O to defend his view for random voting (#297), but I feel that he did: he said it was done to generate discussion (which it clearly has) and importantly, he would change his vote when it matters (#318). I'm not sure what more Morgrim could be looking for from O.

He might be crazy, he might just want to avoid being a day 1 lynch again, or he might be mafia.

I'm also somewhat suspicious of Robz, but I don't really have anything original to bring up on that front.
Don't know what to make of O, definitely not following his line of reasoning for the self-hammer.
Early on, jotheonah encouraged bold play and taking risks (#182), and I feel like his voting for O then backing down before (real life) night is pretty much the opposite behavior. Maybe I misinterpreted his earlier post.

And I've just seen Morgrim unvoted O; I'd like to know what Morgrim's thinking right now. It'd be nice to hear some rationale for the behavior I pointed out above.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #399 on: May 31, 2012, 08:26:35 pm »

I advocated bold play, not stupid play. Leaving my vote on O would have been foolhardy.

For the record, here's how I read O's self-lynch comment (and I think if the rest of you read it closely instead of just OMG SELF LYNCH, you'll see this too.)

Paraphrase:
"If I am so unlucky as to gain six votes on myself on Day 1, I will cast the 7th vote myself. In doing so, I will serve as a sacrificial lamb, dying but teaching the town a valuable lesson about  not being careful with their votes. In this way I will help the town win, even though I'm helping lynch town."

It still doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but that's how I read it and no one else seems to have gotten that out of it.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #400 on: May 31, 2012, 08:32:22 pm »

I advocated bold play, not stupid play. Leaving my vote on O would have been foolhardy.

For the record, here's how I read O's self-lynch comment (and I think if the rest of you read it closely instead of just OMG SELF LYNCH, you'll see this too.)

Paraphrase:
"If I am so unlucky as to gain six votes on myself on Day 1, I will cast the 7th vote myself. In doing so, I will serve as a sacrificial lamb, dying but teaching the town a valuable lesson about  not being careful with their votes. In this way I will help the town win, even though I'm helping lynch town."

It still doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but that's how I read it and no one else seems to have gotten that out of it.

I got that, but it doesn't make sense to me.  It's not an effective way of teaching a lesson.  And is the lesson even necessary?  It seems to me that people are in fact being careful with their votes, unless you consider it careless to vote for someone to stir conversation and then unvote when it looks like a wagon is starting.  Several people have done that already, including O himself.  Or at least that's the explanation we have for why he had voted randomly.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #401 on: May 31, 2012, 08:51:03 pm »

Neutral: michaeljb (you post a lot yet I still dont remember any of your opinions. have you actually said much anything?)

This is about the only post where I really did say much of anything:

Ok so this is a few pages old now, but in going back through each player's posts one thing that stood out to me was Morgrim7's behavior before the vote. Specifically, in a couple of his flavorful journal entries he said he was not going to vote until he had more information (#194 and #236). Then after O had random voted him, and Frisk joined in for Morgrim making unhelpful posts (#251), Morgrim's reaction was to unhelpfully post and vote random(#252, #254), casting aside that earlier notion of waiting for more information. It seems like a really panicked response, and why would he panic if he had nothing to hide?

Like Frisk says with the attributed to Napoleon quote, this could just be incompetence, but it feels weird to me.

And Morgrim's more recent vote for O strikes me as "Oh, you voted for me? Well I'll vote for you." And Morgrim has wanted O to defend his view for random voting (#297), but I feel that he did: he said it was done to generate discussion (which it clearly has) and importantly, he would change his vote when it matters (#318). I'm not sure what more Morgrim could be looking for from O.

He might be crazy, he might just want to avoid being a day 1 lynch again, or he might be mafia.

I'm also somewhat suspicious of Robz, but I don't really have anything original to bring up on that front.
Don't know what to make of O, definitely not following his line of reasoning for the self-hammer.
Early on, jotheonah encouraged bold play and taking risks (#182), and I feel like his voting for O then backing down before (real life) night is pretty much the opposite behavior. Maybe I misinterpreted his earlier post.

And I've just seen Morgrim unvoted O; I'd like to know what Morgrim's thinking right now. It'd be nice to hear some rationale for the behavior I pointed out above.
-I had what seemed like sufficient information at the time to vote.
-You do not think my points (and Galzria's) against random voting were reasonable?
-I think (I could very well be wrong) O was trying to avoid suspicion by saying that his vote was purely to arouse conversation. Arousing conversation could be achieved much easier by using Robz's strategy: vote off a hunch. Maybe provide evidence.
Sorry to seem defensive, but what do you do if someone lunges at you with a sword? Defend yourself right away before it hits, not wait around to see what happens. You already know what will happen. You will get skewered.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #402 on: May 31, 2012, 08:52:04 pm »

Robz is exactly following the pattern he himself said we should look for in the mafia. Does he admit this? Yes, somewhat. Still, he has been wishy-washy, has said some questionable remarks that have struck me wrong, and has been generally not-that-helpful to the town. These are my primary concerns with him.

I'm also concerned that he may string things along as long as possible and when things are looking bad for him Sunday evening, say, "Ok guys I didn't want to reveal this but I am X-role." Which would let him survive another day, would probably mean a no-lynch, and (if everything goes how he would like) could win him some trust. And unless someone has the role that he claims, we can't verify the truth of his claims (until night at least, and then only if we happen to have the cop or some other similar role).

Yes, I am doing many of the things I said to look out for. I'm glad you noticed. I mean that sincerely. It tells me something about you. Do you know what I've learned about you, Dsell? You are good at choosing a target--I believe you chose me in post #304, long before I did any of the things you found suspicious, except for not posting enough--and then building a case against him. The thing is, you've been so direct with it, I'm a little baffled. I would expect the mafia not to show so much decisiveness in leading the charge against somebody. However, I would also not expect a town member to lead a decisive charge against a veteran who is one of the town's most helpful players (indeed, you have some evidence of my helpfulness at this point--look at Mafia I, where as the Jailkeeper, I was largely responsible for the deduction that got the town to lynch Axxle, the final mafia).

I think this vote is unlikely to kill a mafia member no matter what. But I think the town does worse than random by killing me, Jotheonah, Galzria, or Voltgloss, in absence of extreme suspicion.

But you seem to have extreme suspicions of me for... playing the way I told you the mafia would play? But then if you think I am mafia, why wouldn't you think I would lie to you about how the mafia would play?

Let me keep it simple: I think the mafia if they are among the new players, would be likely to post an average number of times, with some bold but hedgy accusations mixed with silliness. Obviously I do not think the mafia would CHOOSE to do that self-awarely, nor would I find it particularly suspicious if a veteran was doing that. For instance, i think that if J were mafia, he might behave a certain way... but it wouldn't be that way. He would have consciously molded his behavior to be different. So I was telling all of you what cues I was looking for in the new people, and I was also wondering if they might adjust their behavior accordingly.

I can't be too disappointed if you lynch me this round, as I've made it through many fun, arduous rounds in the other two games, but... I want the town to win, so I must implore you not to lynch me. I am useful to the town, and you will regret not having me next round.

If there are other more specific questions about me and my behavior, I would be happy to answer them. I didn't realize the lynch date was so soon at all--that's my mistake. So yes, I understand voting soon. We will have to. Though I'm not sure who I'd vote for at this point.

I will not be voting for Morgrim.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #403 on: May 31, 2012, 09:02:27 pm »

Uhh, why not?

People, please do not let pitty stay your hand. If I am lynched, hey, it is a lesson learned. After all, this is just a game. :)
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I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #404 on: May 31, 2012, 09:38:52 pm »

I think this vote is unlikely to kill a mafia member no matter what. But I think the town does worse than random by killing me, Jotheonah, Galzria, or Voltgloss, in absence of extreme suspicion.

What about O?  Wasn't he a strong member of the town in Mafia I as well?
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #405 on: May 31, 2012, 09:48:05 pm »

You are good at choosing a target--I believe you chose me in post #304, long before I did any of the things you found suspicious, except for not posting enough--and then building a case against him. The thing is, you've been so direct with it, I'm a little baffled. I would expect the mafia not to show so much decisiveness in leading the charge against somebody. However, I would also not expect a town member to lead a decisive charge against a veteran who is one of the town's most helpful players (indeed, you have some evidence of my helpfulness at this point--look at Mafia I, where as the Jailkeeper, I was largely responsible for the deduction that got the town to lynch Axxle, the final mafia).

You are right and you are wrong. In post #304, I chose you intentionally, but I did not assume you were mafia at that point and did NOT have in mind to frame you as mafia. As town, that is pure stupidity without real evidence. But I only made that post because of Jotheonah's prompting. I thought his way of sparking discussion was a good idea so I figured I would play along, so I aired my very mild suspicion of you. The main reason I did it though, was to try to shake you up like you so often do in other games...it's a strategy I like. I wanted to poke and prod to see what kind of reaction you would give, because hey, it usually ends up being helpful information. And for me, it was! You reacted in what I perceive to be a fairly mafia way: not responding at first, making an insubstantial post as well as a more substantial one in which you laid out your perceptions (which included some veiled suspicion cast on myself and eevee) while not really giving us all that much to go on.

So, no, when I first cast suspicion on you, it was very mild suspicion because you didn't seem to play quite the same way as in the other games. All of your subsequent responses, however, have made you look more and more like mafia.

The thing that keeps getting me is that you're right. You WERE so helpful in Mafia I, even beyond being randomly assigned jailkeeper. You aggressively went after who you perceived to be mafia (even if you were wrong the first couple times) and were a shining champion for the town. You were very helpful. But in this game, you haven't seemed very pro-town at all. You aren't exactly anti-town, more like just there. Unhelpful. Contributing, but not much. Maybe it's only that it's day 1 and you haven't had much to go on but like we are all realizing we HAVE to vote soon. And still you are unsure. The only thing that is certain is that you're gonna be a nice guy and not vote Morgrim.

I think this vote is unlikely to kill a mafia member no matter what. But I think the town does worse than random by killing me, Jotheonah, Galzria, or Voltgloss, in absence of extreme suspicion.

"I think this vote is unlikely to kill a mafia member no matter what." But we would be so foolish not to try! Saying, "the town has no real chance of hitting mafia anyway so protect me!!" is the kind of just really unhelpful thing that seems so uncharacteristic of Town Robz. I would be very sad if an experienced town or certainly a town role were lynched, but you haven't done much this game to persuade me that we really really need you around.

But you seem to have extreme suspicions of me for... playing the way I told you the mafia would play? But then if you think I am mafia, why wouldn't you think I would lie to you about how the mafia would play?

You really can't lie about the way that mafia play because you've said similar things in the other games. Lying about that would be more incriminating than...well, hanging around in the background, like you were trying to do.

If I turn out to be wrong and lead your lynch and you turn out to be a townie, that would be very unfortunate. And I would expect a lot of suspicion to be cast on me, rightly so. But I trust that my posts thus far and future posts will be clear, well-reasoned, and show my support for the town.
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #406 on: May 31, 2012, 10:37:37 pm »

-I had what seemed like sufficient information at the time to vote.

In case I didn't make it clear, I was referring to the time you voted randomly for def, not when you voted O, and I'm not buying that you really had information then.

Quote
-You do not think my points (and Galzria's) against random voting were reasonable?

I'm not sure what this has to do with what I posted. I didn't say O was on the right side of that debate, I said he had presented a defense for himself, and in the post where you voted for him you said he hadn't defended himself.

Quote
-I think (I could very well be wrong) O was trying to avoid suspicion by saying that his vote was purely to arouse conversation. Arousing conversation could be achieved much easier by using Robz's strategy: vote off a hunch. Maybe provide evidence.

Conversation certainly was aroused after Captain_Frisk cast his vote, and you could even call his point #2 a "hunch." Unfortunately, you responded with the very behavior Frisk mentioned in his hunch.

Quote
Sorry to seem defensive, but what do you do if someone lunges at you with a sword? Defend yourself
right away before it hits, not wait around to see what happens. You already know what will happen. You will get skewered.

Uhh, why not?

People, please do not let pitty stay your hand. If I am lynched, hey, it is a lesson learned. After all, this is just a game. :)

So...a non-voting suspicion post is a sword which you need to defend yourself from so you don't get skewered, then a post saying not much about you other than the poster is not voting for you asking why...the crazy defense is starting to sound more believable.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #407 on: May 31, 2012, 10:38:21 pm »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (2) - O, yuma
O (1) - eHalcyon
Robz888 (2) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk

Not Voting (9) - Robz, def, Eevee, michaeljb, Voltgloss, jotheonah, Galzria, Morgrim7
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #408 on: May 31, 2012, 10:38:28 pm »

[correction] ***is not voting for you makes you ask why...****
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #409 on: June 01, 2012, 12:26:06 am »

So...a non-voting suspicion post is a sword which you need to defend yourself from so you don't get skewered, then a post saying not much about you other than the poster is not voting for you asking why...the crazy defense is starting to sound more believable.

Whats great about the crazy defense is that others make it for you!  All right folks - I'm off to bed - and with only 2 votes on Rob, I'm not especially nervous about an overnight hammer.  See you all tomorrow!
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #410 on: June 01, 2012, 12:32:32 am »


-I think (I could very well be wrong) O was trying to avoid suspicion by saying that his vote was purely to arouse suspicion

Oh yea, I've totally been attempting to avoid suspicion this game. That's been my primary strategy!
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #411 on: June 01, 2012, 01:30:54 am »

This is mostly unrelated but I really want to post this and I don't think anywhere is really appropriate for it.

From the Mafia II game:

Boy, you ARE drunk. You and me. If we were Mafia we would both vote Volt now and win.

The above is in reference to Robz.  I kind of wish that they would all vote for Robz, with the third voter quipping, "Robz, you are hammered!  8)"  Because, come on, that would be awesome.  Right?  Right?

Sorry.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #412 on: June 01, 2012, 01:47:58 am »

This is mostly unrelated but I really want to post this and I don't think anywhere is really appropriate for it.

From the Mafia II game:

Boy, you ARE drunk. You and me. If we were Mafia we would both vote Volt now and win.

The above is in reference to Robz.  I kind of wish that they would all vote for Robz, with the third voter quipping, "Robz, you are hammered!  8)"  Because, come on, that would be awesome.  Right?  Right?

Sorry.

Send Axxle a PM, I believe he has a quicktopic discussing Mafia-II set up where you CAN talk about that game to others. (I think you can get the quicktopic link from Kuildeous as well).

With that said, I would find the above outcome amusing. But I can't say anything substantive about that game.

-----

On the topic of THIS game, which I CAN talk about here, I don't have anything really new to report. I don't find Robz's play to be as damning as some of you seem to, but I appreciate the effort that you're all putting into weaseling out Mafia. I think, for now, that he is town. I would actually be MORE surprised to see him be Mafia, than say a Town Role - Not that he would ever (nor should ever) admit to that unless dire circumstances arose. But he knows that.

Look, I don't know. But his play so far, while far from "innocent" has read like most town WANT to be - Not suspicious enough to be lynched, but suspicious enough for the Mafia to keep around. A good place to be to make good points that help the town. It's part of the reason that I dropped my vote on O, and while still cautious, haven't resubmitted it. I'm FAR more likely to suspect someone who is showing WAY Pro-Town than I am someone who is showing possible Mafia. It's just SMART play round 1. The Mafia aren't going to slip up. They aren't really going to give bad tells. They want to be as unsuspicious as possible. That's WHY I still strongly suspect Jotheonah. I don't think he's going to suddenly start acting Scummy, but I don't find his "I wanna help town! Go town! Yeah!" to be genuine.

Just my 2 coppers.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #413 on: June 01, 2012, 05:06:58 am »


I've reread posts made so far in an effort to solidify my suspicions.  Work is calling though (or, more accurately, pinging insistently through e-mails) and so I don't have time now to lay out my analysis and vote.  (Yes, I do think that NOW we're far enough into the day, and have enough evidence to draw from, that it makes sense to vote our strongest suspicions.)

What I will say, because our posting times don't often overlap, is to Robz.  Robz, I like your analytical style a lot - as you know, it's similar to mine.  And our general views on mafia strategy issues are also aligned.  And yet... in this game, with respect to its substance, and going off of your posts made since I last posted substantively (#315)... I'm starting to get concerned about you.  I will lay out the reasons for my concerns this evening, before your usual midnight-and-later online time, so you can respond to them then.  In the meantime, I am looking forwarding to your response to Dsell's #405. 

And I am also hoping you can answer a couple of questions below, regarding this comment you made in #338 when responding to Dsell's suspicions voiced in #304 (after his request you do so in #325):

And... you are near the top on my list of suspicions, as you seem to have guessed. Your posts nicely fit the model I outlined, with a mix of serious and then taking-it-back plus humor and emoticons. Frequent but not too frequent.

- Why did you think Dsell "seem[ed] to have guessed" that you suspected him?
- Which posts of Dsell's fit the model you outlined in #324?
- You say Dsell was "near the top" of your suspicions list.  That suggests he was not AT the top.  Who was?  Are they still there?  If not, what has changed?

Robz, I trust you won't take this inquiry personally.  I do agree that, if you are Town, you're a great asset to the Town.  The flip side of that is, if you are Mafia (or SK), you could be the Town's worst nightmare.  So I'm hoping your responses allay my concerns, because I really don't like the alternative.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #414 on: June 01, 2012, 08:40:25 am »

Look, I don't know. But his play so far, while far from "innocent" has read like most town WANT to be - Not suspicious enough to be lynched, but suspicious enough for the Mafia to keep around. A good place to be to make good points that help the town. It's part of the reason that I dropped my vote on O, and while still cautious, haven't resubmitted it. I'm FAR more likely to suspect someone who is showing WAY Pro-Town than I am someone who is showing possible Mafia. It's just SMART play round 1. The Mafia aren't going to slip up. They aren't really going to give bad tells. They want to be as unsuspicious as possible. That's WHY I still strongly suspect Jotheonah. I don't think he's going to suddenly start acting Scummy, but I don't find his "I wanna help town! Go town! Yeah!" to be genuine.

Just my 2 coppers.

Ok, I don't know about Robz, but I, as a townie, don't go into a game thinking "How can I be just helpful enough to my team to stay alive, but unhelpful enough to not be a mafia target?" I go in thinking "How can I help my team?" If, in the course of that, my team targets me, I will defend myself in order to get us back on the track of finding mafia. I think intentionally acting suspicious, for the sake of acting suspicious, which is what Galz is suggesting Robz is up to, is strictly anti-Town.  G and R are starting to look like possible scumbuddies. Can't think why else Galz would employ such a poor defense of Robz.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #415 on: June 01, 2012, 08:56:23 am »

Read Davio's post #614 in M-I to understand what I mean J. I don't think he would AIM to play that way, but would be happy being in that situation. Yes, even as town.

And ask yourself this (you of all people should be qualified to answer), if Robz and I WERE a pair, how bad would our play be now to set ourselves out like you seem to be suggesting? You know we are both stronger players than that.

More and more you seem to want to shift the focus. The most Mafia'ish thing to do is go unnoticed. Be a "friend of the town". I'm a friend of the town because I AM town. I'm becoming less and less sure that applies to you.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #416 on: June 01, 2012, 09:33:03 am »

Coming perilously close to rule-breaking here, but if M-II ends like I think it ends then it will prove that an early appearance of collusion is far from the end of the world for the mafia.  It's like a double-bluff. It's SO OBVIOUS that it couldn't be mafia behavior - we'd never be that obvious. And everyone buys it.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #417 on: June 01, 2012, 09:35:47 am »

Coming perilously close to rule-breaking here, but if M-II ends like I think it ends then it will prove that an early appearance of collusion is far from the end of the world for the mafia.  It's like a double-bluff. It's SO OBVIOUS that it couldn't be mafia behavior - we'd never be that obvious. And everyone buys it.

Let's table that discussion until today's lynch results come in from M-II.  We're just waiting on the mod, who is on California time, so we're talking at least a couple of hours I'd expect.  Once the results come in, we'll know for sure who was right, and who was wrong, and about what.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #418 on: June 01, 2012, 09:48:20 am »

Ok, I've been looking back at Robz's posts. I am going to agree with a lot of what has been said.

I'll add that twice now (first in his "Stalwarts" section and later in his defense) he's tried to lump me, Galz, Volt, and him together as a core group of Day 1 unlynchables.  I think he's hoping we'll come to his defense, and to somehow tie himself to whatever pro-town sentiment the rest of us has. As "O" has repeatedly pointed out, our status as helpful townies is very much in question given the disastrous outcome of our game. So the "don't lynch these helpful townies" angle rings hollow.  Excluding a large group of people from your suspect pool off the bat for largely irrelevant reasons is anti-Town. With Volt, I await your responses.


@Galzria: I could dismiss Eevee's flimsy attack as newbie waffling, but yours is just flimsy. You're literally saying I'm the most suspicious because I'm too consistently pro-town.  Most people just call that "being town."  But I don't even think you're mafia, because I don't make that much sense as a mafia target right now. So I really don't know what to think.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #419 on: June 01, 2012, 09:49:16 am »

O, I don't know why I scare-quoted your name. I think it's some kind of copy-editor instinct around one-word names.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #420 on: June 01, 2012, 09:49:30 am »

*one-LETTER names
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #421 on: June 01, 2012, 09:54:58 am »

Michaeljb's #406 post succinctly explains why I continue to be suspicious of Morgrim7. Michaeljb explained it much better than I attempted to previously.

Morgrim7s behavior yesterday also continued to be strange. I am not going to say crazy because I don't necessarily think it is. I think it is a convenient excuse. In my previous post I suggested that Morgrim7 needed to answer questions, start learning some lessons and develop a strategy that did not reek of oddness if I was going to stop suspecting him. He failed at doing so. Is he crazy? Maybe... But crazy mafia is looking like more and more of a possibility.

On other note. I am not going to say I am not suspecting Robz888 anymore. I still do, but I think my suspicions are much lower than many of my fellows townspeople. I'll keep him on my radar, but I am not going to change my vote to him unless something drastic changes.

Suspicions: Robz888, Morgrim7
Not suspicious: Michaeljb
Vote: Mogrim7
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #422 on: June 01, 2012, 01:19:20 pm »

With Mafia-II now at an end, it is open game for reference (very, very fun game). Allow me to start by pointing out that I have a GOOD feeling for how the Mafia work. And I stand by my stance that they want to appear active and important day 1, while giving off AS LITTLE (read: none) suspicion as possible. The people who draw attention to themselves in any (even minor) way are likely to be town. This was true in M-I. This was true in M-II. I have no reason to think it won't be true here. O pointed it out earlier when he said the Mafia will act like anything BUT Mafia day 1.

Yes J, my suspicion is on you because you are too strongly town day 1. Feels like you're trying to blend in and hide. Robz may be Mafia, but he is acting more like I would expect town to act, and more like he did in M-I where he WAS town.
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Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #423 on: June 01, 2012, 01:24:37 pm »

Take this from Mafia-II: People who write obscenely long posts of analysis are likely to be mafia, and shall be the targets of my votes.  ;)

I thought Galzria was writing tomes because he was an inept townie; he was a promafia.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #424 on: June 01, 2012, 01:27:23 pm »

I will NOT be devoting that much effort here. I will still posts my thoughts, but I don't have the energy to play another game like that! I'm hoping this turns into more of an M-I game. Crazy, short, without all the essays.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #425 on: June 01, 2012, 01:34:18 pm »

Seconded. We have two days til the deadline. Robz, some responses from you have been requested.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #426 on: June 01, 2012, 04:05:31 pm »

Okay, here are answers to the several posts that raised questions about me since last I posted.

From Dsell:

You are good at choosing a target--I believe you chose me in post #304, long before I did any of the things you found suspicious, except for not posting enough--and then building a case against him. The thing is, you've been so direct with it, I'm a little baffled. I would expect the mafia not to show so much decisiveness in leading the charge against somebody. However, I would also not expect a town member to lead a decisive charge against a veteran who is one of the town's most helpful players (indeed, you have some evidence of my helpfulness at this point--look at Mafia I, where as the Jailkeeper, I was largely responsible for the deduction that got the town to lynch Axxle, the final mafia).

You are right and you are wrong. In post #304, I chose you intentionally, but I did not assume you were mafia at that point and did NOT have in mind to frame you as mafia. As town, that is pure stupidity without real evidence. But I only made that post because of Jotheonah's prompting. I thought his way of sparking discussion was a good idea so I figured I would play along, so I aired my very mild suspicion of you. The main reason I did it though, was to try to shake you up like you so often do in other games...it's a strategy I like. I wanted to poke and prod to see what kind of reaction you would give, because hey, it usually ends up being helpful information. And for me, it was! You reacted in what I perceive to be a fairly mafia way: not responding at first, making an insubstantial post as well as a more substantial one in which you laid out your perceptions (which included some veiled suspicion cast on myself and eevee) while not really giving us all that much to go on.

I don't think that's a mafia-ish way to respond. I think a mafia-ish way to respond would be to launch into an essay on why I was not actually suspicious. Because I have nothing to hide, I didn't care to respond to every little needling of me. That might be hypocritical--I'm needling people, and looking for their responses--but I don't care. My idea this round was to say less than usual, because I'm one of the louder players and a two-game veteran, and I didn't want to dominate the conversation, specifically because there were so many new voices. I was looking to stir the pot and not really say much about myself. Of course you have had other designs for me, so now I must defend myself in extended fashion.

So, no, when I first cast suspicion on you, it was very mild suspicion because you didn't seem to play quite the same way as in the other games. All of your subsequent responses, however, have made you look more and more like mafia.

I try to switch up my play in every game, but I think it's fair to say that my play so far in this game is much more similar to Mafia I, where I was the Jailkeeper than in Mafia II, where I was the Mafia Rolecop. My analysis of my own play is that I tend to filter my comments much less when I am a townie. Let me explain: in Mafia II, I would write a whole post and then delete it before posting it. I did this probably a dozen times. I was being so careful about what I said. Every word was danger. I didn't do that at all in Mafia I, and I haven't done that in Mafia III. Not being more careful about what I say has brought a lot of suspicion on me, I see that now, but if I were the mafia I would have been more careful. Since I am not the mafia, I have not been careful.

The thing that keeps getting me is that you're right. You WERE so helpful in Mafia I, even beyond being randomly assigned jailkeeper. You aggressively went after who you perceived to be mafia (even if you were wrong the first couple times) and were a shining champion for the town. You were very helpful. But in this game, you haven't seemed very pro-town at all. You aren't exactly anti-town, more like just there. Unhelpful. Contributing, but not much. Maybe it's only that it's day 1 and you haven't had much to go on but like we are all realizing we HAVE to vote soon. And still you are unsure. The only thing that is certain is that you're gonna be a nice guy and not vote Morgrim.

Well, I was helpful in Mafia I in the following ways: I thought the bandwagon against theory was very wrong (and I was correct), and I figured out who the other mafia was going into the last round, blocking his kill. But I was wrong about TINAS in rounds 1 and 2. I have not yet formed strong suspicions, so I was sitting back, and needling. I actively went after Morgrim in game 2, remember, because I was the mafia.

There are more players in this game, and two of them stand out as crazy: O and Morgrim. Going after the crazy people has not yet yielded a mafia kill in the first round. Therefore, I do not think Morgrim is the mafia. O's "kill myself" thing has greater potential to be some sort of higher strategy, in my view, than Morgrim's craziness. Which is why I am still suspicious of O. But, like, just a little bit.

I think this vote is unlikely to kill a mafia member no matter what. But I think the town does worse than random by killing me, Jotheonah, Galzria, or Voltgloss, in absence of extreme suspicion.

"I think this vote is unlikely to kill a mafia member no matter what." But we would be so foolish not to try! Saying, "the town has no real chance of hitting mafia anyway so protect me!!" is the kind of just really unhelpful thing that seems so uncharacteristic of Town Robz. I would be very sad if an experienced town or certainly a town role were lynched, but you haven't done much this game to persuade me that we really really need you around.

I still think we are unlikely to kill a mafia member this round. The other 2 games failed to do so: in this game, it will be harder. I didn't say we shouldn't try. And I do think I am worth protecting. I will be valuable to the town next round. If you don't think you need me, it hurts my feelings I suppose. Perhaps the town would be better off without you, though, since you are barking up the wrong tree!

But you seem to have extreme suspicions of me for... playing the way I told you the mafia would play? But then if you think I am mafia, why wouldn't you think I would lie to you about how the mafia would play?

You really can't lie about the way that mafia play because you've said similar things in the other games. Lying about that would be more incriminating than...well, hanging around in the background, like you were trying to do.

If I turn out to be wrong and lead your lynch and you turn out to be a townie, that would be very unfortunate. And I would expect a lot of suspicion to be cast on me, rightly so. But I trust that my posts thus far and future posts will be clear, well-reasoned, and show my support for the town.

Well, I really, really don't like you trying to weasel out of your responsibility for this, because you are wrong. To be honest, you are playing like me in Mafia II, and I am your round one Morgrim.

Next, Volt:

And I am also hoping you can answer a couple of questions below, regarding this comment you made in #338 when responding to Dsell's suspicions voiced in #304 (after his request you do so in #325):

And... you are near the top on my list of suspicions, as you seem to have guessed. Your posts nicely fit the model I outlined, with a mix of serious and then taking-it-back plus humor and emoticons. Frequent but not too frequent.

- Why did you think Dsell "seem[ed] to have guessed" that you suspected him?
I phrased it that way to be sort of a purposefully nasty retort to him, to see what he would do. It doesn't make much sense in any context. He suspected me before I suspected him. And I didn't even particularly suspect him until his most recent statements. I wanted to see how he would react.

- Which posts of Dsell's fit the model you outlined in #324?

Here is one:

What's this?! We were having a perfectly lovely conversation about avatars and begging for twigs, and now people are suddenly calling for a hanging??  :o  What a mad world we live in!

Seriously though, I'm glad to see more substantive posts! I do hope we can hear a little more from the quieter ones, and it doesn't seem to me like throwing a couple votes out early is putting us in too much danger of an early hammer. It seems like a terribly obvious mafia move to throw 2 or 3 bandwagon votes on a person in the first round to bring the hammer down. Nobody wants to actually lynch right now, we just want strong reactions. And strong reactions are good because a mafia player might be more likely to slip if they have to really defend themselves.

The mafia face an early game dilemma. What to say? They have to say SOMETHING. It can't be total nonsense or overly serious, so they say something like this. Note: This is how I would expect a new player who is the mafia to post. It's not how I would expect Voltgloss, if he were mafia, to post.

- You say Dsell was "near the top" of your suspicions list.  That suggests he was not AT the top.  Who was?  Are they still there?  If not, what has changed?

The amount of suspicion separating the person I most suspect (Dsell, now), from the person I least suspect (Morgrim) is not big. I would not vote this weekend if we didn't have the deadline approaching. And by the way, I didn't notice the deadline until yesterday. Before, Dsell was just one of a couple new players who I could see being mafia, with Eevee, Captain Frisk, michaeljb, etc. His campaign against me did not start to make me suspect him until this most recent post of his, where he's already trying to wash his hands of mislynching me.

Robz, I trust you won't take this inquiry personally.  I do agree that, if you are Town, you're a great asset to the Town.  The flip side of that is, if you are Mafia (or SK), you could be the Town's worst nightmare.  So I'm hoping your responses allay my concerns, because I really don't like the alternative.

I am taking it personally within the context of the game of Mafia, where I think I am both very useful and not very suspicious. I'm not, like, real-life taking it personally, of course not. And I certainly used and abused your trust in Mafia II, so on one hand I sort of understand your suspicion, but not really other people's at this point.

Next, Jotheonah:

Ok, I've been looking back at Robz's posts. I am going to agree with a lot of what has been said.

I'll add that twice now (first in his "Stalwarts" section and later in his defense) he's tried to lump me, Galz, Volt, and him together as a core group of Day 1 unlynchables.  I think he's hoping we'll come to his defense, and to somehow tie himself to whatever pro-town sentiment the rest of us has. As "O" has repeatedly pointed out, our status as helpful townies is very much in question given the disastrous outcome of our game. So the "don't lynch these helpful townies" angle rings hollow.  Excluding a large group of people from your suspect pool off the bat for largely irrelevant reasons is anti-Town. With Volt, I await your responses.

"Tried to lump... together as a core group of Day 1 unlynchables" is exactly what I was doing. If one of you were giving me a strong mafia read, I would obviously not do that. But since I don't have particular reasons to suspect you more than others, I would rather keep all of you around. I know how you play, and will be better able to evaluate you next round then I will eHalycon or Eevee or yuma. And that's a good thing for me and for the town. And in fact I MUST "exclude a large group of people from your suspect pool," because there are so many people. Excluding large groups of people on the slimmest of reasons is unfortunately a necessary feature of round 1. I mean, come on, nobody has particularly good reasons for anything round 1. In the other two games, three people--theory, TINAS, and Morgrim--faced round 1 lynch wagons, and none were mafia. Doesn't that tell you something?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #427 on: June 01, 2012, 04:25:46 pm »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (2) - O, yuma
O (1) - eHalcyon
Robz888 (2) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk

Not Voting (9) - Robz, def, Eevee, michaeljb, Voltgloss, jotheonah, Galzria, Morgrim7
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #428 on: June 01, 2012, 05:15:58 pm »

Well, I really, really don't like you trying to weasel out of your responsibility for this, because you are wrong. To be honest, you are playing like me in Mafia II, and I am your round one Morgrim.

His campaign against me did not start to make me suspect him until this most recent post of his, where he's already trying to wash his hands of mislynching me.

Before I do anything else, let me address probably your biggest charge against me, that I am already trying to wash my hands of mislynching you. I was speaking in hypotheticals. The only thing that I know for certain in this game is that I am town. Any of the rest of you could be mafia. Most other people (besides the mafia) will be in this same boat. So everything is in hypotheticals really. I'm not trying to cover myself, I'm not trying to wash my hands of this lynch: I think you are the most likely mafia. Based on the evidence so far, I believe that is the best conclusion. There's obviously the possibility that I'm wrong, I was acknowledging that. Only the mafia can be certain of the roles of other players.

To be honest, you are playing like me in Mafia II, and I am your round one Morgrim.

I disagree that I am playing like you in Mafia II. There are 2 key differences (and I'm sorry to those of you who aren't familiar with Mafia II): I have been very vocal and laid out clear reasons for why your behavior seems mafia, and not just "strange." (Which was one of the primary reasons for why Morgrim was killed, and Morgrim has been acting in some similar ways here.) Building from that, the 2nd key difference is Morgrim's strangeness. He confused a lot of people in Mafia II and Robz really wasn't the first one to raise suspicions. In particular, Voltgloss gave the first serious vote to Morgrim and Robz hopped on the bandwagon after. By contrast, it seems that I was the first to pick up on some of Robz' behavior which bothered me, though it was not widely realized nor has it bothered people greatly. Why, if I were mafia, would I "choose a target" whose behavior did not seem highly suspicious or obnoxious? I could easily have campaigned against O or Morgrim, whose behavior fits those descriptions much better than Robz'.

Now that Mafia II is over, I can reveal that in Mafia II, I suspected Robz of being mafia from very early on. It was for virtually the same reasons as here: he played very differently from Mafia I, was less helpful to the town, and seemed to be playing it much more safely. Voltgloss noticed this same thing almost immediately when Robz did not come out guns blazing like he said he tends to do.

I believe that despite what Robz is saying, he is in fact playing very much like he was in Mafia II, where he was a mafia Rolecop. Here is a comparative quote to illustrate that idea:

(From Mafia II, bold emphasis mine)
On comments that I am playing differently because I didn't come out of the gate swinging as hard as in the other game:
That's a fair observation. I'm actually glad to whoever made it. We have to be vigilant for suspicious things like that. I don't know if my explanation will satisfy you, but I did do a couple posts at the beginning to try to stir the pot, though not quite as strongly as last game... and then I went to sleep. And I just woke up. I am on Eastern Time. Generally available between noon and 5:00 PM, gone until midnight, back online until 3:00 AM, and up around noon. I'm a journalist, so that's my schedule.

(From this game, emphasis mine)
Yes, I am doing many of the things I said to look out for. I'm glad you noticed. I mean that sincerely.

Ok so this isn't completely damning but he pretty clearly has had *very* similar reactions in the face of accusations. Much of his other behavior has been similar as well.

Also notice that in the first quote he had been accused of not playing as hard and not posting as much. These both can be easily explained because he was mafia. Like he said above: "in Mafia II, I would write a whole post and then delete it before posting it. I did this probably a dozen times. I was being so careful about what I said. Every word was danger." So, fewer posts and less brazen. The same can be true here, although we do have more players and other games were going on. Whether that is a legitimate/convenient excuse, I will not try to convince anyone one way or another.

The comparisons do not end there but I don't want this to become a novel-writing game like Mafia II was. One final thing I will say though, is that in Mafia II, Robz falsely roleclaimed. If he is mafia and if it is looking like he is going to be lynched, I expect him to roleclaim here as well. This does not mean we should proceed with the lynch necessarily...that will be a tricky issue that I think we should deal with when we get there...but I urge all of you to move quickly to avoid any eleventh hour situations where we simply can't get enough people online to perform a lynch.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #429 on: June 01, 2012, 05:25:51 pm »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (2) - O, yuma
O (1) - eHalcyon
Robz888 (2) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk

Not Voting (9) - Robz, def, Eevee, michaeljb, Voltgloss, jotheonah, Galzria, Morgrim7


Reading Robz's post, I see alot of "I'm a good player so don't lynch me", as well as descriptions of what mafia play looks like - but nothing that's very helpful.  I'm having a tough time accepting this view of clearly mafia or clearly town play - since mafia would clearly go out of their way to appear town.

What I find interesting here is how we have votes on 3 people - 2 "crazies" and RobZ - and yet there is not even a hint of bandwagoning.  If RobZ was town, wouldn't at least 1 of the 3 Mafia's be trying to get in on this early?  I suppose this puts suspicion on Dsell and I, but it seems like the lobbying should be harder if we had picked town.

This has me thinking RobZ or DSell + (?) Morgrim.  RobZ because there seems to be no interest in voting for him, and DSell for starting the crazy defense of Morgrim and redirecting us to RobZ.

I'm not confident enough (nor do I think it is possible be on Day 1) to go and spearhead a lynch, but I am 100% confident that no lynch is worse.  I'm leaving my vote for now.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #430 on: June 01, 2012, 05:31:40 pm »

This has me thinking RobZ or DSell + (?) Morgrim.  RobZ because there seems to be no interest in voting for him, and DSell for starting the crazy defense of Morgrim and redirecting us to RobZ.

Unless you are talking about how I said that Morgrim's behavior in Mafia III is similar to his behavior in Mafia II, I didn't start the "crazy" defense. In fact, I believe it was Robz...*goes to check* yeah it was Robz. I do think it's fair to say that his behavior is very similar to how it was in Mafia II. I don't think this clears him, by any means, but it also doesn't make me particularly suspicious of him.

There is a perfectly good explanation for Morgrim's behavior: He is crazy. Not mafia, not townie, not special role, just crazy.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #431 on: June 01, 2012, 05:38:55 pm »


There is a perfectly good explanation for Morgrim's behavior: He is crazy. Not mafia, not townie, not special role, just crazy.
Hahaha! Ah, well, :P
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Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #432 on: June 01, 2012, 05:41:18 pm »


Next, Jotheonah:

Ok, I've been looking back at Robz's posts. I am going to agree with a lot of what has been said.

I'll add that twice now (first in his "Stalwarts" section and later in his defense) he's tried to lump me, Galz, Volt, and him together as a core group of Day 1 unlynchables.  I think he's hoping we'll come to his defense, and to somehow tie himself to whatever pro-town sentiment the rest of us has. As "O" has repeatedly pointed out, our status as helpful townies is very much in question given the disastrous outcome of our game. So the "don't lynch these helpful townies" angle rings hollow.  Excluding a large group of people from your suspect pool off the bat for largely irrelevant reasons is anti-Town. With Volt, I await your responses.

"Tried to lump... together as a core group of Day 1 unlynchables" is exactly what I was doing. If one of you were giving me a strong mafia read, I would obviously not do that. But since I don't have particular reasons to suspect you more than others, I would rather keep all of you around. I know how you play, and will be better able to evaluate you next round then I will eHalycon or Eevee or yuma. And that's a good thing for me and for the town. And in fact I MUST "exclude a large group of people from your suspect pool," because there are so many people. Excluding large groups of people on the slimmest of reasons is unfortunately a necessary feature of round 1. I mean, come on, nobody has particularly good reasons for anything round 1. In the other two games, three people--theory, TINAS, and Morgrim--faced round 1 lynch wagons, and none were mafia. Doesn't that tell you something?

This (bolding is mine) makes a certain amount of sense. But we should remember that one key thing the mafia are doing at this stage of the game is making allies among the town, if they're smart. Having even one friend among the town will be life and death for them later on, and the earlier those friendships start the stronger they'll be. Look how Galz played me in MII! (And then turned around and said I was playing him!)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #433 on: June 01, 2012, 05:46:38 pm »

Unless you are talking about how I said that Morgrim's behavior in Mafia III is similar to his behavior in Mafia II, I didn't start the "crazy" defense. In fact, I believe it was Robz...*goes to check* yeah it was Robz. I do think it's fair to say that his behavior is very similar to how it was in Mafia II. I don't think this clears him, by any means, but it also doesn't make me particularly suspicious of him.

It is true that you didn't use the exact term "Crazy", but you did start the defense in a much more polite manner. 

Not to unduly bring up the other game, but Morgrim's actions so far aren't seeming too dissimilar from Mafia II in which Morgrim was wrongly mislynched on day 1 because of his...unorthodox posting.


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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #434 on: June 01, 2012, 05:51:31 pm »

Captain_Frisk, I guess what I would say is that Morgrim's behavior looks very similar to Mafia II, when he was a townie, so I'm not too worried. Robz' behavior looks very similar to Mafia II, when he was mafia, so I'm much more worried. That alone neither clears Morgrim nor does it completely incriminate Robz, but it is a cause for suspicion.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #435 on: June 01, 2012, 05:52:42 pm »

*Cough* Ahem! No hard feelings on that I hope J? ;) Even though I really DO suspect you this game, it's for entirely different reasons.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #436 on: June 01, 2012, 05:55:42 pm »

You veterans are really tearing into each other, wow.  :o

@Galzria, why do you suspect J?
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #437 on: June 01, 2012, 05:56:20 pm »

Hard feelings? Nah. Going to feel very much like being your friend this game? Doesn't look good. (But then, you don't seem that interested, so maybe that's just fine).
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #438 on: June 01, 2012, 05:57:51 pm »

You veterans are really tearing into each other, wow.  :o

@Galzria, why do you suspect J?

I'm very curious of this too. At this point I think all suspicions need to be spelled out so we can make the best decision in a timely manner.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #439 on: June 01, 2012, 05:59:03 pm »

Captain_Frisk, I guess what I would say is that Morgrim's behavior looks very similar to Mafia II, when he was a townie, so I'm not too worried. Robz' behavior looks very similar to Mafia II, when he was mafia, so I'm much more worried. That alone neither clears Morgrim nor does it completely incriminate Robz, but it is a cause for suspicion.

Agreed.  My suspicion of you is purely based on the fact that in any voting, I expect the mafia to try to at least get one of their votes in early (so as to not go for the 5,6,7 hammer powerplay).  Since I know myself to not be Mafia, there is a chance that you are - and if so - anything you do is suspicious (clearing Morgrim, suspecting RobZ). 

That said, I still this ghost town of a thread suspicious that the Mafia is looking for nolynch today.

Note - I am having real life gamers in town this weekend, and will not be posting alot between Noon Saturday and Sunday afternoon (Eastern Time).
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #440 on: June 01, 2012, 05:59:17 pm »

I will repeat again Dsell (but only this one last time): Having been Robz's teammate in Mafia-II, his actions here read MUCH different. In M-II he made the first real accusation of the game (against Morgrim). He then continued to pound relentlessly, ntpicking over THE MOST minor things. Yes, Volt cast the first vote, but Robz drove the bandwagon, even if he hadn't voted yet.

Could he be Mafia here? Sure. But NOT for the reasons you're making against him.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #441 on: June 01, 2012, 06:01:39 pm »

I will be pretty busy and out and about all weekend. I will certainly check in before the deadline and if a suspect has emerged who seems scummy enough to me I will cast whatever vote I can to minimize the chance of us not lynching.

I certainly hope to be on more than that, but just so you know, worst case scenario, plan on me having a voting presence.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #442 on: June 01, 2012, 06:05:41 pm »

I have a theory for why there is little posting right now.  At least in my case, it is a little intimidating watching you guys dissect the posts of your former Mafia groups using knowledge from those games.  I'm guessing few of us followed those other games closely so it is difficult to weigh in on whether (for example) Robz is acting like he did in Mafia II.  Or if he isn't, as Galzria now asserts.  That kind of analysis is important, but it can only really be done well by you veterans.  The rest of us pretty much have to watch and hope you don't lead us astray.

I don't think I am dedicated enough to go back and read Mafia I and II indepth, but if you guys post links to specific posts ("look at these similar plays") then I would read those.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #443 on: June 01, 2012, 06:05:47 pm »

I will repeat again Dsell (but only this one last time): Having been Robz's teammate in Mafia-II, his actions here read MUCH different. In M-II he made the first real accusation of the game (against Morgrim). He then continued to pound relentlessly, ntpicking over THE MOST minor things. Yes, Volt cast the first vote, but Robz drove the bandwagon, even if he hadn't voted yet.

Could he be Mafia here? Sure. But NOT for the reasons you're making against him.

You do make a good point here. Let me think about it some. There ARE similarities though, in addition to this difference. Another difference is that obviously I have put him on defense here, and he really didn't need to defend himself at all on day 1 in Mafia II. But I'll consider. And re-read. (And be waiting for any other suspicions that people have...now is the time to hear them!)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #444 on: June 01, 2012, 06:10:55 pm »

The analysis is pretty useless, actually. Anyone who plays Mafia one way every time and Town another way every time is a terrible mafia player, and we can't deduce all too much from looking at Robz past roleclaims


>MFW I did identical things as townie.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #445 on: June 01, 2012, 06:14:56 pm »

I have a theory for why there is little posting right now.  At least in my case, it is a little intimidating watching you guys dissect the posts of your former Mafia groups using knowledge from those games.  I'm guessing few of us followed those other games closely so it is difficult to weigh in on whether (for example) Robz is acting like he did in Mafia II.  Or if he isn't, as Galzria now asserts.  That kind of analysis is important, but it can only really be done well by you veterans.  The rest of us pretty much have to watch and hope you don't lead us astray.

I don't think I am dedicated enough to go back and read Mafia I and II indepth, but if you guys post links to specific posts ("look at these similar plays") then I would read those.

I agree, and the truth is, there's just as much to be gained from how people argue their points HERE, even if they USE information from other games. I don't *at all* expect people to go back and read those games. If I make an assertion about how a player acted, I fully expect that some people will believe me just because, some people will not let it alter their opinions, and some people will agree/disagree based on what they read/saw. I'm fine with that. Every new voice added, regardless of any knowledge of past behavior, is relevant and welcome. So please don't feel intimidated by references to past games. If you feel like reading up on them, great. And if not, that's great too.

For my part, I will use anything I can to determine my suspects. That's just the way I am. I expect each player to use what they feel comfortable with, and won't hold anything against someone for choosing not to use information that wasn't 100% contained within this game. I WILL hold something against someone for ignoring information contained within this game though. Fair warning.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #446 on: June 01, 2012, 06:30:05 pm »

I have a theory for why there is little posting right now.  At least in my case, it is a little intimidating watching you guys dissect the posts of your former Mafia groups using knowledge from those games.  I'm guessing few of us followed those other games closely so it is difficult to weigh in on whether (for example) Robz is acting like he did in Mafia II.  Or if he isn't, as Galzria now asserts.  That kind of analysis is important, but it can only really be done well by you veterans.  The rest of us pretty much have to watch and hope you don't lead us astray.

I don't think I am dedicated enough to go back and read Mafia I and II indepth, but if you guys post links to specific posts ("look at these similar plays") then I would read those.

I agree with Galzria's statement above: it's fair game, so use it or don't, it's up to you. The truth is, my argument against Robz is not merely that he is playing the same way as in the last game (or different from Mafia I for that matter). I noticed that pretty quickly, though, which is why I tried to get more information out of him in the first place. That information, though, is what made me more suspicious and is what led to my vote.

I have outlined some of my issues with his actions in this game though already in #341, #373, and #396, as well as...a lot of my posts since page 13 in some way or other.

O, it's fine if you don't want to accept that analysis. I agree that it's silly to play the same way every time. But I'm not sure that looking for similarities is as futile as you're suggesting. Who are you suspicious of?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #447 on: June 01, 2012, 06:40:48 pm »

Who are you suspicious of?

Morgrim, obviously. [/troll]

I was suspicious of Robz but am no longer suspicious of him anymore than other players. I can't really name anyone in particular who stands out, actually. I'm not quite sure what eHalycon's reason for voting for me is, but its probably just that I annoy them. Not really an indicator of Mafia or Town tho.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #448 on: June 01, 2012, 06:48:17 pm »

Who are you suspicious of?

Morgrim, obviously. [/troll]

I was suspicious of Robz but am no longer suspicious of him anymore than other players. I can't really name anyone in particular who stands out, actually. I'm not quite sure what eHalycon's reason for voting for me is, but its probably just that I annoy them. Not really an indicator of Mafia or Town tho.

I voted for you because of your self-lynch comment.  I just can't see it being a good townie play at all (doing it, or just threatening it).  I actually think you're pretty entertaining in this game so far!  I think someone in this game commented earlier that you were similarly erratic early in Mafia I.  Is that true?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #449 on: June 01, 2012, 06:53:53 pm »

Who are you suspicious of?

Morgrim, obviously. [/troll]

I was suspicious of Robz but am no longer suspicious of him anymore than other players. I can't really name anyone in particular who stands out, actually. I'm not quite sure what eHalycon's reason for voting for me is, but its probably just that I annoy them. Not really an indicator of Mafia or Town tho.

I voted for you because of your self-lynch comment.  I just can't see it being a good townie play at all (doing it, or just threatening it).  I actually think you're pretty entertaining in this game so far!  I think someone in this game commented earlier that you were similarly erratic early in Mafia I.  Is that true?

I did the same random-vote thing. I also campaigned HARD for lynching Theory (a vanilla townie) over TINAS (the town cop), and then Ozle (the Mafia Rolecop) over TINAS (still the town cop, unsurprisingly), and on the third day voted for the second mafia.

If you read the mafia I quicktopic it's rather hilarious; everyone assumed me and TINAS were a mafia pair because I defended him so much, when we were Vanilla Townie/Town Cop
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #450 on: June 01, 2012, 07:07:50 pm »

I did the same random-vote thing. I also campaigned HARD for lynching Theory (a vanilla townie) over TINAS (the town cop), and then Ozle (the Mafia Rolecop) over TINAS (still the town cop, unsurprisingly), and on the third day voted for the second mafia.

If you read the mafia I quicktopic it's rather hilarious; everyone assumed me and TINAS were a mafia pair because I defended him so much, when we were Vanilla Townie/Town Cop

Stop me if this is inappropriate discussion here, but what tipped you off on TINAS in Mafia I?  Just a hunch?

In this game, I just don't see why you would threaten self-lynch as a Townie.  It is not intuitive at all.  Other than that, your magic sleuthing ability would be a wonderful asset to the town, if you are on the town's side.  Can you explain why you threatened to self-lynch?  The "teach a lesson" explanation you gave earlier makes no sense to me, but I'd like a reason to unvote (not that it looks like anyone else suspects you right now).
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #451 on: June 01, 2012, 07:11:07 pm »

I agree, and the truth is, there's just as much to be gained from how people argue their points HERE, even if they USE information from other games. I don't *at all* expect people to go back and read those games. If I make an assertion about how a player acted, I fully expect that some people will believe me just because, some people will not let it alter their opinions, and some people will agree/disagree based on what they read/saw. I'm fine with that. Every new voice added, regardless of any knowledge of past behavior, is relevant and welcome. So please don't feel intimidated by references to past games. If you feel like reading up on them, great. And if not, that's great too.

For my part, I will use anything I can to determine my suspects. That's just the way I am. I expect each player to use what they feel comfortable with, and won't hold anything against someone for choosing not to use information that wasn't 100% contained within this game. I WILL hold something against someone for ignoring information contained within this game though. Fair warning.

As the one who asked for no Mafia II references I admit that I am seeing that the analyse has usefulness to others, so I retract my request--not that any one was following it and I do appreciate the apologies, but I guess they aren't necessary either. But man! It is hard to follow and get useful information out of.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #452 on: June 01, 2012, 07:46:21 pm »

I did the same random-vote thing. I also campaigned HARD for lynching Theory (a vanilla townie) over TINAS (the town cop), and then Ozle (the Mafia Rolecop) over TINAS (still the town cop, unsurprisingly), and on the third day voted for the second mafia.

If you read the mafia I quicktopic it's rather hilarious; everyone assumed me and TINAS were a mafia pair because I defended him so much, when we were Vanilla Townie/Town Cop

Stop me if this is inappropriate discussion here, but what tipped you off on TINAS in Mafia I?  Just a hunch?

In this game, I just don't see why you would threaten self-lynch as a Townie.  It is not intuitive at all.  Other than that, your magic sleuthing ability would be a wonderful asset to the town, if you are on the town's side.  Can you explain why you threatened to self-lynch?  The "teach a lesson" explanation you gave earlier makes no sense to me, but I'd like a reason to unvote (not that it looks like anyone else suspects you right now).

If I get 6 votes, the odds are pretty damn good that I'm going to be lynched. Self-lynching
1) Prevents poor kill-the-last-voter-play
2) Does to an extent teach a lesson
3) Prevents mafia from hedging their positions
4) Does not really reduce the amount of information given except by a tiny amount, given our group size

I suspected TINAS was innocent because
1) He had a massive bandwagon going on him
2) His play was too erratic to be scum.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #453 on: June 01, 2012, 07:53:42 pm »

2) His play was too erratic to be scum.

And if you don't mind me extending that to my own point earlier: Mafia won't play like Scum, especially the first day, and they will generally go out of their way to draw attention to themselves. I don't mean that they won't post, I mean that they will try to be quite involved, but lead (either directly or indirectly) discussion as to make them seem safe - ie. They will read very pro-town. It doesn't take much early on for one person to do something that MIGHT be construed as Mafia'ish, and then for people to pile on. When it sprinkles, it pours. That's all the Mafia need to take a day 2 advantage (They already have a day 1 advantage just by the nature of the game).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #454 on: June 01, 2012, 07:54:39 pm »

And if you don't mind me extending that to my own point earlier: Mafia won't play like Scum, especially the first day, and they will generally go out of their way to draw attention to themselves.

NOT* to draw attention to themselves.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #455 on: June 01, 2012, 08:27:21 pm »

Captain_Frisk, I guess what I would say is that Morgrim's behavior looks very similar to Mafia II, when he was a townie, so I'm not too worried. Robz' behavior looks very similar to Mafia II, when he was mafia, so I'm much more worried. That alone neither clears Morgrim nor does it completely incriminate Robz, but it is a cause for suspicion.

I feel like no matter what I say, you would say "See! He is mafia," which must be how Morgrim felt in Mafia II. Because literally, every time he said something, I would say, "See! He is mafia." I don't know how similarly or differently I am supposed to play from game to game, whether I am mafia or not, to be un-suspicious. Really, the factors that determine the tone/substance/frequency of posting have just as much to do with exogenous factors as they do with my role. For instance, how urgently the other games need attention, what time it is, who else is playing, etc. Look, you've all had 2 full games to get to know me and how I play, which is twice as much as anybody else. It just didn't seem urgent for me to chime it immediately and all the time here, or to offer strongly worded accusations, or to start any bandwagons. I have no firm suspicions to go off of, so that wouldn't help the town, and I preferred not to drown out people like Frisk and Eevee and you and eHalycon etc. etc., so we learn more about them. I guess that was naive of me to try and get away with a "bye" this round... but I saw it as the best thing for the town.

And now I feel like I have let the town down, because everyone thinks I am "unhelpful." What is helpful to the town, right now? You want me to whip you all up into righteous fury against someone? How should I choose that someone? Really, I was just going to sit back a little at first. Not out of laziness, or spite, or mafia-play, but because I thought the town might benefit from that approach.

Now, really, I have to admit that there was probably an error in my thinking--the voting deadline is MUCH SOONER THAN I REALIZED. So I would have been more active the last few days having known that.

I realize the onus is on me to prove my worth (and my town status, which I'm not sure I can do any better than I already have, so, yuck), so I will go back through the thread and then post in a few hours about where my suspicions lie. I hope to be able to give a voting recommendation at that point. If at that point you don't think it's "helpful," or still think I'm mafia, go ahead and pile on me, I guess.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #456 on: June 01, 2012, 08:35:21 pm »


If I get 6 votes, the odds are pretty damn good that I'm going to be lynched. Self-lynching
1) Prevents poor kill-the-last-voter-play
2) Does to an extent teach a lesson
3) Prevents mafia from hedging their positions
4) Does not really reduce the amount of information given except by a tiny amount, given our group size

I suspected TINAS was innocent because
1) He had a massive bandwagon going on him
2) His play was too erratic to be scum.

I suppose that is fair.  But that last point is supposed to cover you in this game, right?  :P  Fine.  UNVOTE.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #457 on: June 01, 2012, 09:00:29 pm »

Alright, I've reviewed everything up to this point (Wow, more than 400 posts already!?! Seriously? 13 people are hard to keep track of! I can't believe we've had so much (even if the first ~100 were pre-game) already!)

I know def has said that he won't be as active, and that's generally fine, but I'm not sure who he's really helping in a game that (with shorter deadlines) is going to move so fast.

Still, I'm not going to get on him this round.

With the deadline fast approaching however (A day and a half away people), I am going to cast my vote now. I've been talking about my suspicions for awhile, and while O raised my hackles early on, I think he did so TOO much to be Mafia. At least for now (If I'm wrong, well played day 1 O). There's also been a lot of talk about Robz, and while I think that the people making their points about him certainly have something to go on, I also believe that those arguments are false. They're traps that have been fallen into both in M-I (Theory), and M-II (Morgrim). It's way to easy to start needling away at somebody, see them get a little defensive, and drive home the bandwagon. Especially in the first round. I don't believe the people going AFTER Robz are Mafia either, just inexperienced. Maybe that'll be the death of me. Who knows.

No, I'm going to stick to my guns here, and VOTE: JOTHEONAH. I'm going to do so for three reasons:

1) As I voiced earlier, I think he is driving conversation too much. His "Who would you vote for if the deadline were tomorrow" exercise, while I thought was good for getting people to think, it was also good for getting people to NOT think about him. He's been way to Pro-Town. Yes, that's counter-intuitive, but if my suspicions are correct, a good place for Mafia to be day 1.

2) His "on and off" vote of O. He got on O's case because it was easy to do, but he didn't get on for a good reason. "Being annoying" didn't add anything real to the discussion, and the other reasons listed was all just parroting of things I had already said. If that bandwagon goes anywhere and O gets lynched, it's easier to blame the originator (me) than the guy who liked his argument and actually voted first (Jotheonah). The weakness of his argument was actually pointed out to him, and he unvoted before going to bed. A very nice thing for him to do, yes? Except with so many people (as has been pointed out) there really wasn't any risk of a hammer vote. Someone pointed out how terrible the Mafia play would have to be to quick-hammer votes #5, #6, and #7 round 1. And O was only at 3. The fact is, town isn't GOING to quick hammer. They are going to take their time and slowly build up a case, because they want to feel sure. So the ONLY thing his unvote did was make him look nice.

3) Since I've pointed out why I think he's Mafia hiding as town, he's stopped responding. I fully expect this to change with my vote and reasons listed above. So J, I look forward to your rebuttal. His point that my whole argument for him being Mafia is that he appears so pro-town doesn't get him anywhere. Yes J, that is EXACTLY my point.

So, there you have it. Mafia get by round 1 because it's easy to hide as town, and easy for town to lead themselves to their own doom. Too many people, too many suspicions, too many straw-man cases. All they have to do is appear helpful and friendly. Active and important. Town will lynch themselves going after their own shadows. I propose a different tactic. Stop chasing our own shadows and actually look amongst ourselves.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #458 on: June 01, 2012, 09:19:46 pm »


If I get 6 votes, the odds are pretty damn good that I'm going to be lynched. Self-lynching
1) Prevents poor kill-the-last-voter-play
2) Does to an extent teach a lesson
3) Prevents mafia from hedging their positions
4) Does not really reduce the amount of information given except by a tiny amount, given our group size

I suspected TINAS was innocent because
1) He had a massive bandwagon going on him
2) His play was too erratic to be scum.

I suppose that is fair.  But that last point is supposed to cover you in this game, right?  :P  Fine.  UNVOTE.

1) Dont see how the last voter is any less likely to be scum than anyone else (probably the other way around)
2) The biggest lesson for me is "O is a terrible player"
3) I've been wondering what this word means for a while now. What is hedging?
4) All the info we can get is important to us, even if it's "just a tiny bit more". Please dont deprive us of it for no gain whatsoever.


Bottom line, pretty damn good is <100% unless you somehow know who would be lynched instead of you and somehow know that someone has a power (town) role. Self-lynching is not going to make a difference often, but it's clearly a bad decision. Iirrational behaviour is irritating even if it usually has very little impact or no impact at all (on anything).

Captain_Frisk, I guess what I would say is that Morgrim's behavior looks very similar to Mafia II, when he was a townie, so I'm not too worried. Robz' behavior looks very similar to Mafia II, when he was mafia, so I'm much more worried. That alone neither clears Morgrim nor does it completely incriminate Robz, but it is a cause for suspicion.

It's really hard to follow these walls of text without having read Mafia, II but this I feel I understand and agree on. Robz's longwinded explanations havent really convinced me yet, so I'm going to VOTE:ROBZ, probably wouldnt if the deadline wasnt so damn close. Robz convincing me to unvote (and probably going for O then) can definitely happen, but I'm afraid I wont find anyone who feels scummier (is that the right word?) before the deadline so casting my vote already.

I know I haven't been on much (vegas baby, been even questioning my decision to join this game given how little spare time / energy I've had. If someone feels I'm not participating enough, speak up and I'll try to make more time for posting).  I'm checking in every night before going to sleep at minimum so at least I (hopefully) wont miss any voting deadlines.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #459 on: June 01, 2012, 09:28:30 pm »


2) The biggest lesson for me is "O is a terrible player"


I'll just repeat my Mafia I voting record:

Townie over Town Cop
Mafia Rolecop over Town Cop
Mafia (universal tho)

I also sparked tons of contributions to this thread, whereas you've been nearly entirely silent.

Have you even played much mafia before? It'd be funny if you made such a claim while being relatively inexperienced.

Plus you vote for robz without a real reason to.


Unvote
Vote:Eevee
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #460 on: June 01, 2012, 09:32:16 pm »

It's really hard to follow these walls of text without having read Mafia, II

I'm sorry about these walls of text. I really am. I think for now (at least until I see anything else really suspicious) I've made my case so while I'm gonna keep up with the thread and keep posting I'm gonna do my best to keep it shorter. My posts might get long again when the deadline gets even closer!

Eevee I think you've been doing ok about posting as long as you can basically keep up with things...if you are able, this weekend is going to be very important since the deadline for day 1 is Sunday at midnight. So I expect a lot of activity tomorrow and Sunday if we haven't decided yet.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #461 on: June 01, 2012, 09:32:38 pm »


2) The biggest lesson for me is "O is a terrible player"


I'll just repeat my Mafia I voting record:

Townie over Town Cop
Mafia Rolecop over Town Cop
Mafia (universal tho)

I also sparked tons of contributions to this thread, whereas you've been nearly entirely silent.

Have you even played much mafia before? It'd be funny if you made such a claim while being relatively inexperienced.

Plus you vote for robz without a real reason to.


Unvote
Vote:Eevee

No problems with most of this (as it's all your opinion, how could I?), but no personal attacks please (although maybe I'm just reading more into that than was meant). I like and appreciate all of our players, for all of their contributions, and I haven't found Eevee to be any less present than many others.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #462 on: June 01, 2012, 09:34:10 pm »

"O is a terrible player" is more of a personal attack than anything I said, Galz  ;)
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #463 on: June 01, 2012, 09:39:32 pm »

"O is a terrible player" is more of a personal attack than anything I said, Galz  ;)

Maybe it was just a misread in tone on my part. I just want to make sure that right or wrong, everybody here is having fun.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #464 on: June 01, 2012, 09:40:28 pm »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (1) - yuma
Robz888 (3) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee
jotheonah (1) - Galzria
Eevee (1) - O

Not Voting (7) - Robz, def, michaeljb, Voltgloss, jotheonah, Morgrim7, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT
« Last Edit: June 01, 2012, 09:57:09 pm by Insomniac »
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #465 on: June 01, 2012, 09:43:44 pm »

Deadline: 1 Week So June 3[/color]
Deadline: July 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT[/color][/b]

Uhhh is it June 3 or July 3? This is really important.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #466 on: June 01, 2012, 09:44:53 pm »

Deadline: 1 Week So June 3[/color]
Deadline: July 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT[/color][/b]

Uhhh is it June 3 or July 3? This is really important.

I'll let Insomniac clarify, but I have a hard time believing we have more than 4 weeks still... that would draw it out WAY to long. ;D
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #467 on: June 01, 2012, 09:56:55 pm »

Deadline: 1 Week So June 3[/color]
Deadline: July 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT[/color][/b]

Uhhh is it June 3 or July 3? This is really important.

I'll let Insomniac clarify, but I have a hard time believing we have more than 4 weeks still... that would draw it out WAY to long. ;D

My bad I spaced, totally meant JUNE 3, lol July 3 would be really bad.
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #468 on: June 01, 2012, 11:00:24 pm »

Deadline: 1 Week So June 3[/color]
Deadline: July 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT[/color][/b]

Uhhh is it June 3 or July 3? This is really important.

I'll let Insomniac clarify, but I have a hard time believing we have more than 4 weeks still... that would draw it out WAY to long. ;D

My bad I spaced, totally meant JUNE 3, lol July 3 would be really bad.

If we are to lynch all liars - is there any way for me to vote for Insomniac?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #469 on: June 01, 2012, 11:02:02 pm »

Didn't Insomniac die with a stick in the back? Hmm, C.F. misleads us. /lynch
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #470 on: June 01, 2012, 11:25:44 pm »

Hey guys, I just wanted to let you know that I will be gone all of Sunday through the deadline. I am visiting my in-laws and probably (~95%) won't be getting on the computer that day. As a result I won't be able to participate in any last minute voting before the deadline.

It appears I am the lone vote left for Morgrim7. I don't think my belief toward him has changed and haven't been convinced to vote for anyone else. For now I'll keep it the same.

For tonight I am off to bed.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #471 on: June 02, 2012, 01:57:06 am »

Hello all. Well, I re-read the first half of this stuff. Man there are a lot of posts, and a lot of silly, useless posts. Moving on, here is everyone ranked from non-suspicon to suspicion:

Morgrim: He says crazy things, but he isn't behaving much differently from MII. To the extent he IS behaving differently, I think he is legitimately trying not to get lynched first round again. He's really bad at that... but he's not the mafia (maybe).
Yuma: I think the mafia would not leave that lonely little vote on Morgrim, knowing it's unlikely to be joined by any other votes. He doesn't seem to be paying the kind of attention to the game that I would expect from a mafia. He also has a blessed dearth of silly posts.
Def: To be fair, Def and Yuma have said so little that it's a bit unfair to largely acquit them. But my sense is the mafia would have chimed in more. If this turns out to be untrue, and they are mafia, we will have to make a concerted effort to start really piling on the less prolific talkers in early rounds. But for now, I find them both unsuspicious.
Galzria: He makes it very hard to have an opinion of him because he-just-posts-so-much. So much info, and so much silliness. And emoticons! I hate when they are not used sparingly. Oh well. Since he and I were both mafia in MII, I am having a hard time evaluating him in this new context, but he seems harmless--and also helpful--so far.
O: The biggest change for me when I went back over the thread is that now I see O as mostly innocent. I don't agree with everything he did, but his short, snarky responses don't read like mafia to me. The Jester thing was clearly a joke. The random generator was needling. The only troubling thing was his comment about the self-lynch, but we might have all been reading too much into that. He might just be the town bad boy.
Voltgloss: He essentially sounds identical to Mafia II, where he was not mafia. He has a highly analytical, sophisticated, reluctantly accusatory but accusatory nonetheless style, and he really hasn't deviated from it at all this game. I have no specific suspicion of him, though I am wary of being fooled by it (since it would be easy for him to act the exact same way and expect my faith in him).
eHalycon: He is playing a wise first round. Somewhat guarded, but doesn't avoid the subjects. I'm not alarmed by him right now but he is probably someone who could rapidly move up my suspicions depending on how he behaves henceforth. I could see the mafia doing what he's been doing--really sort of lurking but saying short concrete things now and then. But that's just a feeling.
Jotheonah: Well, he's been very purposeful this first round. I like that, but it sort of sticks out at the moment, actually. Not a lot, but Galzria seems pretty suspicious of him.
Captain Frisk: He said something way early about doing research on whether the town was likely to lynch successfully on day 1. That's nice, but you know that's kind of a good thing for the mafia to say to start building good faith. He's also made sure to get a vote out there, on me.
Michaeljb: Well, he had a LOT of silly posts early on. Silly posts make me suspicious when they come from new players, because I am thinking that a new mafia would want to be involved in the conversation a reasonable amount, but would be afraid of saying anything. So he would see a lot of silly posts mix with more substance. Michaeljb, and the top 2 people, have been repeat offenders on this. Michaeljb had some defensive moments mid-late through the day, also.
Dsell and Eevee: Really, these are the two people who stick out to me as mafia. Dsell has been waging a pretty relentless crusade against me. I won't go so far as to say it's baseless, but it's weird. I think it's weird, at least. I try to take a slightly less active role on Day 1 and I find myself being totally attacked by this guy. And of course the biggest thing with him is pre-emptively defending himself in case of a mislynch. Everybody remember that? Also, he was already worried about me doing a false roleclaim. Really, he has a Robz888 focus and as Robz888 I don't get it. He's very misguided or he's mafia.

Eevee hopped right on that bandwagon, and he did so after I had said that I would be posting a big accusations post (where I also asked to hold off on voting for me until after I'd made it), and then he voted for me, before I get the post up. I thought he might have suspected I was going to put him at the top here and wanted to get his vote out of the way before he did. Remember also that I suspect the mafia might want to vote earlier, rather than later. If you vote early, you CAN switch if you need to, but otherwise you are in good shape not to look bandwagon-y or hammering or whatnot. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of the early voters as mafia. (Really, though, it wouldn't surprise me to see anybody as mafia, not even Morgrim.) Also, Eevee really hit the sweet spot with some silly posts, some golly-gee I'm new to this gosh stuff, and some substance. And man, right onto the Robz bandwagon!

So, I would vote for Dsell or Eevee. Really, I suspect them about the same. Since there is already a vote for Eevee, I shall vote for him. If other players have strong opinions why Dsell is suspicious but Eevee is not, I am open to re-considering. Really, I'm open to re-considering on anyone (even Morgrim, though probably not). But that deadline really is looming more than I expected, so here's this for now:

VOTE: EEVEE
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #472 on: June 02, 2012, 02:02:45 am »

To be fair, the usage of emoticons has been fairly conscience, but only because you mentioned them annoying you earlier in the thread. While I DO use them, it's not nearly so much, usually, as I have been recently.

...

;D

...

Ok, I'll go back to normal now. (Man, I wanna put a wink face in here).
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #473 on: June 02, 2012, 02:04:51 am »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (1) - yuma
Robz888 (3) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee
jotheonah (1) - Galzria
Eevee (2) - O, Robz

Not Voting (6) - def, michaeljb, Voltgloss, jotheonah, Morgrim7, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #474 on: June 02, 2012, 02:36:09 am »

Ok, about 48 hours to go.

I'm completely unsurprised to see Robz begin to make his case against me.

Here's where I'm at. I'm trying not to have Robz888 tunnel vision. There ARE three mafia out there, whether Robz is one or not. I'm not opposed to lynching someone else if a) I see something really suspicious or b) someone else makes a strong case against another player and others show interest in lynching this person (which I think is more likely). This is not hopping on a bandwagon; this is simply due to the fact that we are going to have to get a majority of votes on someone, and very soon. Unfortunately, we simply don't have time to do tons and tons more analysis. If no other strong suspicions are raised, it does look quite likely that someone that has already received votes is going to be the lynchee.

The problem with this is that I really don't get a mafia read from anyone here except Robz. Unless it is the much-less-active posters, at least 2 people are fooling me. I could see some reasons for suspicion on some others, such as jotheonah and eevee, but...I'm just not really seeing it. I could be wrong, and I can be persuaded because like I've said, we CAN'T not lynch.

So for now at least, my vote is going to stay the same. I just don't see any good reason to vote for someone who reads town to me over someone who I get a serious mafia vibe from.

Later (maybe tomorrow) I will post an analysis of people's actions assuming that each is mafia, which can hopefully help me sort out thoughts past Robz tunnel vision. In the mean time, this is crunch time for airing suspicions! We really need to start getting our act together tomorrow to settle on a single person to lynch.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #475 on: June 02, 2012, 02:50:25 am »


2) The biggest lesson for me is "O is a terrible player"


I'll just repeat my Mafia I voting record:

Townie over Town Cop
Mafia Rolecop over Town Cop
Mafia (universal tho)

I also sparked tons of contributions to this thread, whereas you've been nearly entirely silent.

Have you even played much mafia before? It'd be funny if you made such a claim while being relatively inexperienced.

Plus you vote for robz without a real reason to.


Unvote
Vote:Eevee

First of all: no offense taken / didn't mean my post as a personal attack either. It's just a game, I hope I didnt ruin our isodom bronze match.  :D Secondly, saying you are a terrible player altogether was stupid of me, I apologize. What I meant to say is "that part of your game is terrible and cannot be justified". Marin isnt a terrible dominion player even if he sometimes doesnt end the game with a win but rather drags it along for two extra turns having fun with his engine. Not ending the game with a win when you have the chance is always a terrible dominion move.

Your vote to me seems like it was casted just because I made was offensive towards you (and again: it was very out of line of me to phrase it the way I did) and you got angry. Not drawing any conclusions of that though, it's an understandable reaction. I do not think it's a particularly valid reason to vote for someone (unless you really think I'm mafia), but it is what it is. I tried to state my reason for a) voting this early and b) choosing Robz. Basicly, we are so close to our deadline we need to start making decisions, I wouldnt have voted yet if that wasnt the case. I do not think Robz is a bulletproof mafia and quite frankly would hope we had more time but we dont, we have two days or something so I thought the thing to do was to start casting votes to people you suspect the most - even if you aren't sure. I do want to contribute, I know I'm clean so at least I have more of a chance (and incentive) to hit mafia than the rest of you on average.

@Robz
Admittedly I havent played much, but saying "posting a medium amount, some of it jokingly but most of it seriously and somewhat analytically" is mafia behaviour and "posting the bare minimum" is town behaviour seems hugely surprising (I want to say "inaccurate" but I dont really know, what do others think about this?). I dont really get what in particular has made me a suspect, we basicly have 3 groups of players: "leaders" like you and Galzria who are really active and keep the discussion going, sort of guiding it (these are the most experienced players). "Participants" like me, who post whenever they are asked a question or otherwise adressed or whenever they get an idea (or think of a joke) they want to share with others and "lurkers" who decide to do most of their talking by their votes and post very little. Seems like you want to peg the 2nd group as mafia, I think in reality we are mostly people who havent played enough to lead the discussion but try our best to contribute still (and improve all the time, I hope I'll be able to take a bigger role in the future, at least when playing with people less experienced than i am).

I dont think people really change their "group" regarding their role either, imo lurkers are just quieter people, people who like to observe. Participants a) dont have enough time to be real leaders or b) dont yet know how to do it. Leaders know everyone thinks of them as these analytical and awesome posters and know they have to do the same when mafia to not be completely obvious (apparently Galzria did a pretty good job with this in some other game).

Dont really know how else to defend myself - this is me trying to help town to best of my abilities, not me trying to be in the middle ground as a mafia member (apparently middle ground is where best of my ablities carry me). Tbh I dont think I'd have the courage to post even this much or this long if I was mafia, at least IRL my heart is racing pretty much a 100% when I have to lie all the time (which is odd, bluffing in poker is so much easier for some reason).
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #476 on: June 02, 2012, 03:11:56 am »

Don't worry Eevee, I personally have not found your contributions scummy. I probably couldn't be convinced to vote for you day 1, in the same way that I probably couldn't be convinced to vote for Robz.

Now, I know that a bad lynch IS better than a no lynch because, well, the only person I KNOW is town is myself. So even if I don't believe someone is Mafia, they will still have a higher chance to be than I do.

So I will not rule out switching my vote at the deadline if I can't convince people to think backwards. I want to make sure we lynch SOMEBODY, but I would prefer it to be the person that I suspect. Alas, the troubles of being a team when you don't know who your teammates are!

That said, I would ask everybody to step back for just a moment and think: "If I were Mafia, how would I act, and how would I want the town to see me?" You'll start to understand why I find such strong pro-town play day 1 so much more suspicious than someone who appears (with 13 people playing) to give off slight Mafia "tells".

Most of you have admired that your feelings aren't strong, but that you just don't feel more comfortable with reads on anyone else. I understand that. I do. But put yourself in the Mafia's shoes (I've been there, remember) and you'll see why your angle of approach is wrong.

((I only refer to day 1, btw. After, everything goes out the window).
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #477 on: June 02, 2012, 03:13:24 am »

Most of you have admitted*
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #478 on: June 02, 2012, 03:20:43 am »

Also, to be clear J, I'm not on a witch hunt for you. You're a really great guy. I'm just calling things as I read them. It's... Different, being on the other side of the fence, but I'm sure I can use what I learned AS Mafia to find them in this game.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #479 on: June 02, 2012, 03:36:58 am »

Galzria, if I go by your strategem of suspecting people who appear least suspicious, then my current top picks are actually Captain_Frisk and you yourself, followed by jotheonah.  You read extremely Town to me... maybe in the same way that nobody suspected you in Mafia II.

Aside: I'm going to be out for most of today (Saturday).
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #480 on: June 02, 2012, 03:54:37 am »

Galzria, if I go by your strategem of suspecting people who appear least suspicious, then my current top picks are actually Captain_Frisk and you yourself, followed by jotheonah.  You read extremely Town to me... maybe in the same way that nobody suspected you in Mafia II.

Aside: I'm going to be out for most of today (Saturday).

That's completely fair, and I've been waiting for SOMEONE to point that out (if only because I've been listed low by a few people). I am town, but if you don't suspect me, I think something is wrong.

A) I read strong town in M-II, and was Mafia.
B) I went after people I could make cases for being Mafia.
C) It worked handsomely.

Mafia like to be people who read town, and drive the wagon to find people who read Mafia.

You SHOULD suspect me if I read absolutely pro-town. But my defense is that I, at least, am trying my best to teach my fellow townies to read Mafia. J has been trying to get people to find Mafia-like behavior. He also tried to turn people on each other with his "exercise", so you would do the Mafia's job for them.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #481 on: June 02, 2012, 03:57:03 am »

*goes and reads all of jotheonah's posts*

Galzria, you are accusing him of being too pro-town to be sincere. Would you mind quoting some posts that have struck you as "too pro-town" and why? I saw like, one post that was really uber pro-town. And I have to echo eHalcyon, if I am going by who appears least suspicious, you are hardly MORE suspicious to me than jotheonah, which by your reasoning would suggest that you are JUST as likely to be mafia...it's possible I'm missing things. I guess I actually have run the scenario of you being mafia through my head some but I just don't even want to try and process that right now, much less put you on the chopping block within the next 48 hours. And a lot of what you've said DOES make sense. But on the other hand they could make sense for you to say as mafia.

Anyway my head is spinning a tad and it's getting late, so I think I'm going to give things fresh eyes tomorrow. But I am interested in hearing your suspicions of jotheonah spelled out a little more. We still have a little time.

For the record, I am still most suspicious of Robz.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #482 on: June 02, 2012, 04:10:49 am »

*goes and reads all of jotheonah's posts*

Galzria, you are accusing him of being too pro-town to be sincere. Would you mind quoting some posts that have struck you as "too pro-town" and why? I saw like, one post that was really uber pro-town. And I have to echo eHalcyon, if I am going by who appears least suspicious, you are hardly MORE suspicious to me than jotheonah, which by your reasoning would suggest that you are JUST as likely to be mafia...it's possible I'm missing things. I guess I actually have run the scenario of you being mafia through my head some but I just don't even want to try and process that right now, much less put you on the chopping block within the next 48 hours. And a lot of what you've said DOES make sense. But on the other hand they could make sense for you to say as mafia.

Anyway my head is spinning a tad and it's getting late, so I think I'm going to give things fresh eyes tomorrow. But I am interested in hearing your suspicions of jotheonah spelled out a little more. We still have a little time.

For the record, I am still most suspicious of Robz.

Absolutely, give me a few.

Before I put it up though, I want to make this point NOW, before it looks like I'm being forced to defend it later: I don't want to be accused of leading the blind. It would be very easy for J to turn around and say "Well look at how he strung all us along in M-II, and now he's just doing the same thing with you!". This (I hope) is NOT the case. I don't want you to follow my vote of J because I say so, or I make a good case. I want everybody to open their eyes to the fact that (especially in forum Mafia), the Mafia just AREN'T going to come out being suspicious. They have all the time they want/need to formulate their posts. So if you are looking for Mafia by looking for people who are ACTING like Mafia or suspicious, you're PROBABLY looking in the wrong place.

Could the Mafia be double-bluffing by acting MORE suspicious to make you think "Well, there's no WAY they could be that obvious" (Think O here people)? Sure. But that's a move to make with a veteran crowd who know not to jump on the people who appear scummy early. With this many inexperience people, their best bet is to HIDE by appearing to be one of the town.

Anyway, on to putting together my post RE: J.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #483 on: June 02, 2012, 04:26:21 am »

Mafia double-bluffs are certainly possible, but take the pretty massive risk that they just don't get single-bluffed at all. I mean, TINAS was pretty damn near lynched in Mafia I due to his erratic play, and Morgrim WAS lynched due to it.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #484 on: June 02, 2012, 04:41:29 am »

I want everybody to open their eyes to the fact that (especially in forum Mafia), the Mafia just AREN'T going to come out being suspicious. They have all the time they want/need to formulate their posts. So if you are looking for Mafia by looking for people who are ACTING like Mafia or suspicious, you're PROBABLY looking in the wrong place.

I think you are mostly talking about my suspicion of Robz here? But I think perhaps you are/were missing the original idea of it...he was taking a much more "no-risk, appear townie" approach which just seemed really uncharacteristic of when he was the town. Like you are advocating searching for in a mafioso, he looked too pro-town (and by this I mean boring, in-the-background town) for him. Then after prodding him a bit some of his other responses (in addition to his defense, which is expected) appeared at best, unhelpful, and at worst, a bit scummy.

But it really didn't start from a "mafia tell," it was just me thinking, "where is larger-than-life Robz, champion of the town, whose accusations and defenses are airtight and filled with awesomeness? And who is this boring, vanilla player who has taken his place?" So I sorta called him out on it, which got the ball rolling even more and made me more suspicious.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #485 on: June 02, 2012, 05:40:58 am »

Alright, at the request of Dsell (although I would like to keep this short(er). No books this game!):

I started to type this out, explaining step by step how I came to my conclusions, and realized that it was going to become WAY to long for me to start setting a standard now. So instead I'm going to bullet point with commentary.


  • Where does Jotheonah stand on letting people sit with a few votes?

I would feel like kind of a jerk letting Morgrim be the Day 1 lynch ... AGAIN. Poor guy just wants to play some mafia.

On the other hand, two votes in a town this size is not so big a pressure cooker. It takes seven to kill? So 4 votes is the bare minimum for a mafia hammer, and that's assuming fairly stupid mafia play. So everybody calm down a little.

Seems to be pretty good advice. Don't panic over a few votes, because with this many people, a few votes can't hurt. Let's look at how he applied that advice to himself:

Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.

Taken all by itself, this seemed like a nice thing to do. And in fact, he even had ME thinking that:

Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.

+1 for doing the right thing. Unless you're Mafia covering your tracks. Hmm, ah, +1 anyway. I'm feeling nice today.

Buuut, not entirely. Those posts are back to back, and I was wary of how pro-town it felt even then. When Jotheonah unvoted, there were only 3 votes on O. One below the 4 that he admits being the "worry" number. And even 4 is only the "worry" number if the Mafia plays EXTREMELY poorly by hammering out the last 3 votes. So outside of "being a nice guy" there wasn't much reason for him to retract his vote except to give off a pro-town vibe. Is that damning all by itself? No, not really. Confusing, certainly. Saying one thing, and doing another for the sole purpose of being nice just didn't sit right with me.

  • Why was I wary of Jotheonah by that point?

Jotheonah's unvote post was #310. He stated in it that he was going to bed, but "jokingly" accused eHalcyon of not participating in his exercise. His "exercise" was post #291, less than 20 posts earlier:

I hear ya on that one. OK everybody, I am BORED. So I propose a game. Imagine that Insomniac posted that the new deadline was tomorrow and everyone has to vote for someone. Who would you vote for and why? (Note: don't ACTUALLY vote.)

And ... GO!

(I will be immediately suspicious of anyone who chooses not to participate in this exercise)

This was the post that grabbed my attention. I posted in M-II MANY times over that the Mafia would do their best to stir up confusion and suspicion. While I did my best to remain as "town" as I could there, I also did my best to poke and prod as many places as I could. J does a good job once again of phrasing this post to appear pro-town (especially the "don't actually vote" - Do you REALLY think that was necessary?), but stop for a moment and think what this ACTUALLY does.

I can't recall who (I think it was Dsell, though maybe C.F.) said they weren't REALLY suspicious of Robz, but were just taking part in this "exercise", and it was Robz's response that made them start thinking as him as a possible Mafia. There are a lot of people in this game. If accusations start flying around by townies without any real drive behind them, we will end up self-lynching ourselves. So what does he do? He starts this exercise, and then gets outta the way by "going to bed".

This was a great Mafia move in a town this size. His first response to both my above accusations is this:

Quick reply to G before work.

I was bating O. He didn't seem to be taking the game seriously, I thought a few votes on his head would change that. It did. Look how he's been playing lately. As soon as he looked to be in any real danger I unvoted.  Just like my "exercise" post, I'm looking for ways to generate meaningful replies for analysis. I think it's working.

By his own admission earlier, O should not have appeared to be in any "real danger". That unvote served no purpose except to make him look good. He knows that his case for survival in later days is going to be how he composed himself early. It worked for me, why not for him?

His second point is more to the truth of the matter. "I think it's working". Let's look at who had "accused" who in his "exercise":
#315, Voltgloss -> eHalcyon
#312, eHalcyon -> Morgrim/O
#304, Dsell -> def/Robz
#294, Galzria -> O/Volt
And much further down (at Eevee's first chance online), you have post #365 (will quote that a bit below): Eevee - Jotheonah/O

And that's not to mention Yuma or C.F. who had Morgrim voted already.

So his seemingly helpful exercise has caused the town to blow up in suspicions of each other, NONE of which he had a hand in. Why is that important? Two reasons:

1) He can't be tied back to any bad lynch that comes from that
2) He has town jumping on town.

We have SIX people as listed suspects in that list (seven if you include him from Eevee's post). Two of which are still primary suspects in most of your eyes. And NEITHER of those two has J connecting to them.

  • One last point before I go. This is already way longer than I wanted and as I'm tired, probably not as clear as I intended. Eevee's post #365 (Taking part in the "exercise") and J's response to it:

Suspicious: johtheonah (Something feels very off here. I'll try to think of a way explain this when I have more time, I actually meant to just post a list now but I started writing the neutral column first and had something to say about everyone of those so I feel I've got to do the same here)

That something you can't explain Eevee, is that he is too damn "pro-town". Everything he's done he's done in a "to help the town" manner, but has done anything BUT, or cast him in a better light. And before you could get more time to try and think what it was:

First of all, sorry for being busy and not posting for a while. Just caught up with everything.. oh so much reading. Makes me forget the stuff I had to say four pages back.. should really try to get online every 5 hours or so to not miss out on stuff.

Oh well, I'll chime in with my hunches now:

Suspicious: johtheonah (Something feels very off here. I'll try to think of a way explain this when I have more time, I actually meant to just post a list now but I started writing the neutral column first and had something to say about everyone of those so I feel I've got to do the same here) > O (you've got to know that is bad bad town play.. kind of weird though, dont really think you would go that route if you were mafia either but.. eh, pretty confident that cant be a power townie role at least) > Morgrim (was my #1 suspect until someone posted he was just like this in some other game where he was town. Still not exaclty convinced but certainly helps his case)

Neutral: michaeljb (you post a lot yet I still dont remember any of your opinions. have you actually said much anything?), def (posting so little, hard to say), Galzria (posts a lot, some of it looks mafia-ish, some of it townish. undecided still but inclined to believe you're clean and sincere), Captain_Frisk (I find myself agreeing with a lot of your posts but am still not convinced. somehow it feels like you arent 100% honest / helping town as much as you could if you really wanted to)

I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).

???: Robz, half the time you seem like a sure townie, then you go around and say something too stupid for a guy that smart and start looking suspicious again. Your playing style is very good for the game though, so if I was equally suspicious of you and someone else, I'd rather vote for the someone else.

If the lynch was tomorrow morning, I'd pick either O or johtheonah but hopefully we'll get more info before we have to cross that bridge. Everything still looks very puzzling, I find myself hoping I could be "sure" of someone so that I could really start to hammer that person instead of posting these somewhat vague thoughts (sorry guys, I really dont have anything better to offer). Mafia seems to be playing very well which makes me suspect the silent ones and the more experienced ones more (and johtheonah seems to be the only one of my 3 suspects above who fits either of these labels so arghhhh).

BWUH? Man I don't mind being accused here and there, shows the town are on their toes and all that, but I just got cited as #1 suspicious person without any concrete (or even abstract) reasons given AT ALL.  Eevee, I was getting a town read off you, but who does that?

I want to believe you're just new and don't see how incredibly suspicious that kind of vague, unsubstantiated pseudo-accusation is.

Also, you say Mafia is playing well, but I'm not sure what that even means at this point. All we can say is that Mafia hasn't done anything unbelievably stupid.

The very first person that suspected him in his exercise, he flips out over. **Oh No! How could THAT have happened! Well, good thing Eevee didn't bring any PROOF.** Boy, shoe doesn't fit so well on the other foot, does it J?

-----

So there you go. Probably not as clear as I normally would like, but I'm tired, and I don't have AS much at stake as my M-II game. Again though, I ask that you not be led to my conclusion based on my argument, but based on your own reasoning. I just ask that you stop to consider, "How would *I* act if I were Mafia? What would I try and do?" I feel that if you look at J's posts through that light, you'll notice that he looks pretty darn scummy. Not because he appears to the TOWN as scummy, but because he DOESN'T, yet his actions don't lead to good Town results.

To sum up:

His actions didn't back up his words regarding early voting.
He got off the "bandwagon" of O to set himself as looking good for future days.
His "exercise", while well disguised, did nothing but hurt the town.
He responded vitriolically to the taste of his own medicine when Eevee put him on the "would vote tomorrow" list
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #486 on: June 02, 2012, 05:41:31 am »

I flunked the "not long" test. Sorry.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #487 on: June 02, 2012, 10:37:45 am »

Oh good lord. Let's get into this.

First of all, I'm sorry for the disappearing act. I did SAY I was going to be not around much this weekend. I went out with friends last night, ended up sleeping elsewhere, don't have a smartphone.

Galzria took the opportunity to lead a town charge against me while he knew I wouldn't be able to defend myself. For those of you who haven't read M-II, one interesting highlight was when he, as mafia, led a blatant town charge against Kuildeous.

Normally I wouldn't expect mafia to be so obvious on Day 1, but there are some factors no one has pointed out:
1) There are 3 mafia this game. That means they can afford to play more recklessly. Two mafia can survive for a long time.
2)The looming deadline is going to impair our judgment, and that's too good an opportunity to pass up. Consider, those of you taking this crusade seriously: How would you have felt about it 3 days ago? How do you feel about it in the spectre of OMG WE MIGHT NOT LYNCH.
Yes, I know no-lynch is good for the mafia. But killing a townie is even better for the mafia.

A few more things before I respond to G's points.  Earlier he said that the mafia would encourage town to vote based on "scummy" behavior, but the real mafia would play in a pro-town way.  I agree with that. But you CAN'T IGNORE that it implicates Galz as much as me.

If someone is being helpful, you want to keep them around.  It's not pro-town to lynch your best people because they're being straightforward in their intentions. If you do kill me this round, when I flip town, I hope you'll see it as a lesson in that regard.

No, on to the point-by-point:

His actions didn't back up his words regarding early voting.

I've actually explained this above. Yes, a hammer fear was part of the reason I unvoted O and a hammer didn't look that likely. But I also unvoted O because I no longer suspected him to be mafia. I didn't really want to contribute to starting a bad bandwagon, and I'm glad that our suspicion has rolled another way (though I'm hoping that way isn't toward me, obviously).
 
He got off the "bandwagon" of O to set himself as looking good for future days.

This is just the vague "he's too pro-town" argument dressed up in specifics. I unvoted O because I no longer suspected him. That's pro-town play. Literally any pro-town play can sound like mafia play if you add "to set himself up as looking good for future days" to the end.

His "exercise", while well disguised, did nothing but hurt the town.

I beg to differ! The point of the exercise was to get the ball rolling and get everyone talking. Ferret out those lurkers.  It did that. It's hard to say, looking, how much of the ensuing conversation came out of it and how much would have happened naturally. I was worried our town, especially the newer players, wasn't talking enough. I got you talking. You're welcome.

He responded vitriolically to the taste of his own medicine when Eevee put him on the "would vote tomorrow" list

I've said before, I'll say it again. I advocate bold play, not stupid play. It's great to get out there and make accusations. In fact, it's key. It's bad (and it reads scum) to get out there and make accusations with no proof backing them up. I would think this would be self-evident. If you don't have a concrete reason to suspect someone, what does accusing them do. Does it, maybe, spread confusion? The thing Galzria is always saying is so bad for the town, and the thing that he also said was bad for the town in MII, where he was mafia?

Eevee is a new player eager to learn how to play the game. I explained what I consider to be a key tenet.


Deep breath.


You're a promising town. You're using good critical thinking. I can't tell at this point if Galzria is leading a ballzy scum charge or if he just has a totally wrong read and is employing confirmation bias. But I encourage the rest of you to critically think about this.

I know I'm playing differently than Mafia II, and that can look strange and worrying. In particular, on a few occasions I've been less nice. In retrospect, I flew off the handle at Eevee, I voted for O because he was being annoying, and in this post I'm admittedly getting a little miffed at Galzria.

In Mafia II, nice did not turn out to be an asset.  So this game I'm going for good town play, but also being bold, willing to put myself out there, even throw my vote around. If this gets me lynched, that will suck, but I guess I'll have learned a lesson for next game.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #488 on: June 02, 2012, 10:40:29 am »

I don't want this to turn into a 1v1, me and Galz.  I'm highly suspicious of those kinds of exchange and I don't think they help the town. You've heard his side, you've heard my side, now we need to figure out who we're lynching.

I'm gonna read back and see if I can spot my own suspect.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #489 on: June 02, 2012, 10:47:06 am »

I don't want this to turn into a 1v1, me and Galz.  I'm highly suspicious of those kinds of exchange and I don't think they help the town. You've heard his side, you've heard my side, now we need to figure out who we're lynching.

I'm gonna read back and see if I can spot my own suspect.

Holy crap that was a lot of text for someone with 1 vote on them. 
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #490 on: June 02, 2012, 10:54:06 am »

One vote and an essay. One vote by the last game's master mafioso. I'm just trying to nip this thing in the bud.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #491 on: June 02, 2012, 10:57:25 am »

Ok, I know I said I was done, but I want to just retract the implication that Galzria is mafia. It's way too obvious for day 1 mafia play, even with the possible reasons I stated above. I let myself get carried away. Rereading, I'm convinced Galz is town. He's just wrong about me.  And that makes total sense since, as he pointed out, I am playing similarly to how HE played as mafia last game.  But I'm also playing how I play as town.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #492 on: June 02, 2012, 11:05:49 am »

I don't think I need to add much more. C.F. Nailed it pretty well above there. And J saw this and dialed right back.

Like I said last night, deadline is tomorrow. I likely won't change my vote unless I have to in order to make 7 votes (instead of no-lynching).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #493 on: June 02, 2012, 11:33:06 am »

Ok, I'm hunting through the posts so far and I'm coming around to Robz's (and Galz, really) assertion that the mafia is playing a middle game, not posting too much, not posting too much substance.

And what jumped out at me is def has posted very little, but his posts have been articulate and helpful-seeming. And he made an excuse early on where he said "I'm only going to post if I have something to say," and then went into a long post about having a real life.

So I'm thinking, what better way to ensure Day 1 survival then 1) establish some credibility 2) fade out, giving strong reasons for that.

I know I should be targeting someone who already has votes on them though if I'm going to help us get a lynch. And I'm still not convinced by Robz's defenses. Plus Robz is so good at this game that I'll never stop being suspicious of him, which is going to cloud my judgment on subsequent days.  And he's doing the accuse-your-accuser thing at Dsell, although he then cast his vote for Eevee.  Is voting for someone who already has votes on them town at this point or mafia?

CF suggested before that the mafia play for today is a no-lynch, which would be brilliant, actually.
It means the mafia are likely among those who have yet to vote, the people who will have a good, good excuse on Day 2. And it would point, again, to someone like def.

So I'm going to Vote: def even though it doesn't bring us much closer to a lynch. Having reread, he seems the most likely scum candidate to me.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #494 on: June 02, 2012, 11:43:19 am »

I don't think I need to add much more. C.F. Nailed it pretty well above there. And J saw this and dialed right back.

Like I said last night, deadline is tomorrow. I likely won't change my vote unless I have to in order to make 7 votes (instead of no-lynching).

Ok, I responded to an essay with an essay. If you look at Mafia II, you'll see that's how I play as town too. All it means is that I talk too much. And I don't particularly want to be the Day 1 lynch.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #495 on: June 02, 2012, 11:54:22 am »

I don't think I need to add much more. C.F. Nailed it pretty well above there. And J saw this and dialed right back.

Like I said last night, deadline is tomorrow. I likely won't change my vote unless I have to in order to make 7 votes (instead of no-lynching).

Ok, I responded to an essay with an essay. If you look at Mafia II, you'll see that's how I play as town too. All it means is that I talk too much. And I don't particularly want to be the Day 1 lynch.

Hey, I fully respect that. Nobody does. And lord knows I talk way too much as well. As I stated earlier, I DON'T want people to follow my lead and vote for you because I said so. I want them to think differently than players in M-I and M-II did. They should be looking for people who read strong town, not *maybe* Mafia.

Looking for Mafia making mistakes in round 1 will invariably lead to a town lynch. O kind of opened my eyes to that. Mafia just aren't going to act like Mafia day 1.

My thoughts personally are that you've done a fine job appearing as town (apparently so have I, and that's fine if you suspect me for it too), but your actions have been distinctly UNHELPFUL in their pro-town fashion. I'm just not buying your innocence.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #496 on: June 02, 2012, 11:59:54 am »

Well, I was rather busy last night (and there's evidence of it this time right on this very board, Galzria) and have just now caught up to the latest round of posts.  Mulling now over lunch.  My thoughts, and vote, should be posted in the next two hours.  I will fail miserably atdo everything in my power to keep my analysis succinct.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #497 on: June 02, 2012, 12:03:57 pm »

I don't think I need to add much more. C.F. Nailed it pretty well above there. And J saw this and dialed right back.

Like I said last night, deadline is tomorrow. I likely won't change my vote unless I have to in order to make 7 votes (instead of no-lynching).

Sorry for not posting more - was iphone posting previously - and that is just no fun.  I'm not necessarily suspicious of jotheonah on account of his essay, I was just noting that it was a strong reaction. 

Yes, G's post was long as well, but for all i know this is a Mafia super double-think play to have a big visible fight and then make up later where you'll both look clean.  I see decent reason for either of you to be suspicious.  Galzria for his excellent Mafia play in II and his redonculous post counts, and J for his very defensive responses to what looks like a relatively minor threat. 

There's reason to be suspicious of everyone - the vocal folks for being too vocal, the middle posters for trying to blend in, and the silent folks for trying to slide under the radar.  Erratic play is justified by the desire to not appear too pro-town and thus not get night killed etc.  Any of us here on a deep strategy forum are the types who really like to analyze our games, so I wouldn't expect any of us to come out and make a truly obvious play.

For now - I'm going to leave my vote because I don't have any stronger convictions.  I'll be dark for most of the day - hoping to play Mage Knight this afternoon - but I'll check in before bed.


I'm sticking with RobZ for now as I don't currently see a more compelling candidate, although I am
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #498 on: June 02, 2012, 12:09:15 pm »


Looking for Mafia making mistakes in round 1 will invariably lead to a town lynch. O kind of opened my eyes to that. Mafia just aren't going to act like Mafia day 1.


I absolutely agree with that. But I think going the other extreme and trying to spot the towniest townie is just as bad. And you do too, because after you turned your attention toward me you started making real points against me that go beyond "he's so town" - the points I felt obliged to address.

I just think the safer, and more likely, play, especially for less experienced mafia, is to get involved as little as possible in the Day 1 scuffles. So I'm turning my eye toward the lurkers, as it were.

Unlike Galzria's strategy, which gambles killing one of our best town players against killing a mafia, mine merely gambles killing a quiet townsperson against killing a mafia.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #499 on: June 02, 2012, 12:11:38 pm »

Well, I was rather busy last night (and there's evidence of it this time right on this very board, Galzria) and have just now caught up to the latest round of posts.  Mulling now over lunch.  My thoughts, and vote, should be posted in the next two hours.  I will fail miserably atdo everything in my power to keep my analysis succinct.

Don't worry Volt, I've said before that I don't actually hold absences against people. I just point them out to see what response I get. But it would never be part of a case against someone for me.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #500 on: June 02, 2012, 12:20:12 pm »

I disagree J. Look at Goober in M-I. Look at bozzball in M-II. Now look at where the Mafia were both games. Your change to def to me reads as a redirect to a target not able to defend himself - just the thing you accused me of doing, except that I have no doubts that you will defend yourself, because you're a present, active player. Def can't, or won't  do that.

You're going after bozzball* (def) here because it's the easy thing to do to move conversation. But that's just my feeling.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #501 on: June 02, 2012, 12:34:38 pm »

I should clarify for those who don't know: Goober and bozzball were both people who contributed a very little, when they could, but were unwilling to devote a lot of time and effort to their respective Mafia games - which is completely fair. They took part when they could, and within the 48 hour minimum. Both were town, not Mafia hiding. All the Mafia so far, in both completed games, have been quite active. There isn't much reason to think that would change here, and going after the quiet ones who won't defend themselves fully because they don't have the time doesn't sit well with me.

I went after J KNOWING that he would defend himself, and I still stand by my beliefs.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #502 on: June 02, 2012, 12:44:28 pm »

After thinking about this last night, reading today's new posts and having a change in real life plans I have come to a decision....

and at the risk of making myself suspicious in Robz's eyes
Remember also that I suspect the mafia might want to vote earlier, rather than later. If you vote early, you CAN switch if you need to, but otherwise you are in good shape not to look bandwagon-y or hammering or whatnot. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of the early voters as mafia.

I will Unvote and instead Vote: jotheonah. I am still highly suspicious of Morgrim, but I doubt anyone else is going to join me for that vote this round. Secondly, after this post I will be online for ~ 1 hour and then I am gone until Monday. Dinner with the in-laws turned into an overnighter with the in-laws at their cottage. I might be back right before the deadline, but I don't want to make any promises. As such I want to get my vote out there early and make it a vote that can actually accomplish something rather than be dead.

The reason I am voting for jotheonah is not so much Galzaria's post about it, but jotheonahs multiple responses and long winded responses as well as his reaction to CF's comment and his vote for def.

Galzaria's post was long--so having jotheonah write a long response in return isn't very surprising. But his tone and approach seemed defensive and reactionary for just one voter.

His reaction to CF was interesting as it seemed he realized afterward that reacting so strongly was very suspicious. He realized he was trying too hard and as Galzria said, "dialed it back."

As for the vote for def I agree with Galzria that it is an attempt to redirect attention from yourself to someone else. Your reasoning for this vote just isn't good enough to pass.

I may be getting played by Galzria. And with that he has moved up on my list along with Robz and still Morgrim.

If any of you think my vote is a bad idea let me know about it quick, I won't be on much longer, especially as this post took me longer than I anticipated to write.

Status:
Suspicious: Galzria, Morgrim, Robz, Jotheonah
Not suspicious: Michaeljb
Vote: jotheonah
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #503 on: June 02, 2012, 01:04:39 pm »

Vote: jotheonah for basically the reasons laid out by others, and one snippet from your voting post:

It means the mafia are likely among those who have yet to vote,

The fact that this is strongly emphasized just feels to me like you're trying to drive the town into a frenzy, like how Galzria noted your "exercise" did. Making the point that it's good for the town to vote in a more understated way would have been more helpful, I think.

I'm still definitely suspicious of Morgrim, seems like he's happy to ride with the insanity defense, but like yuma pointed out there looks to be no chance of lynching him today, so voting for him would be just as effective as voting no lynch.
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #504 on: June 02, 2012, 01:10:00 pm »

*additionally, jtheonah your vote for def I think is going to be as good as voting no lynch, but of course actually voting for someone least does keep you out of the haven't-voted-so-likely-mafia-group you invented.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #505 on: June 02, 2012, 01:15:36 pm »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Robz888 (3) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee
jotheonah (3) - Galzria, yuma, michaeljb,
Eevee (2) - O, Robz
def (1) - jotheonah

Not Voting (4) - def, Voltgloss, Morgrim7, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #506 on: June 02, 2012, 01:22:34 pm »

Do I really have no votes on me again? What do you guys need me to do??? Roleclaim something that actually might be in the game?
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #507 on: June 02, 2012, 01:26:02 pm »

I feel like such a sheep, everytime someone posts a long, well-written analysis (actually, shorter ones do as well if they are smart enough) as to why someone is likely scum, I feel like "omg that's so correct!!". Makes me wonder how easily I could be (mis)led by mafia as well..
I cant really fathom Galzria being mafia after those posts, he sounds so genuine.. but maybe I'm way too easy to fool. Still, he looks to me like perhaps _the_ most helpful townie so he is the last person I'd vote for atm.

Btw, I dont mind the long posts at all guys, they feel helpful (even convincing) and you are not just talking in circles but actually getting somewhere with them.

// Haha O, i dont really understand what you are doing.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #508 on: June 02, 2012, 01:27:49 pm »


I cant really fathom Galzria being mafia after those posts, he sounds so genuine.. but maybe I'm way too easy to fool. Still, he looks to me like perhaps _the_ most helpful townie so he is the last person I'd vote for atm.


You might want to read up on the end of Mafia II.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #509 on: June 02, 2012, 01:30:02 pm »


I cant really fathom Galzria being mafia after those posts, he sounds so genuine.. but maybe I'm way too easy to fool. Still, he looks to me like perhaps _the_ most helpful townie so he is the last person I'd vote for atm.


You might want to read up on the end of Mafia II.

I agree. But I'm still town.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #510 on: June 02, 2012, 01:31:52 pm »


I cant really fathom Galzria being mafia after those posts, he sounds so genuine.. but maybe I'm way too easy to fool. Still, he looks to me like perhaps _the_ most helpful townie so he is the last person I'd vote for atm.


You might want to read up on the end of Mafia II.

I agree. But I'm still town.

Wasn't implicating you. Jus' saying you making long allegedly-helpful posts doesn't disqualify you at all  :P
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #511 on: June 02, 2012, 01:34:11 pm »


I cant really fathom Galzria being mafia after those posts, he sounds so genuine.. but maybe I'm way too easy to fool. Still, he looks to me like perhaps _the_ most helpful townie so he is the last person I'd vote for atm.


You might want to read up on the end of Mafia II.

I agree. But I'm still town.
Thats just super scary. Wow. Got to take everything with a grain of salt in these games then, uh.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #512 on: June 02, 2012, 01:41:23 pm »

Well I am off.... My vote is going to stay the same. Hope for the best.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #513 on: June 02, 2012, 01:48:12 pm »

Ok, it will likely look scummy, but I will follow michaeljb's advice and join a viable bandwagon.
Robz and O's collusion on Eevee in the face of very little evidence is strange to me. Can you two explain your case a bit better?
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #514 on: June 02, 2012, 01:50:29 pm »

Ok, it will likely look scummy, but I will follow michaeljb's advice and join a viable bandwagon.
Robz and O's collusion on Eevee in the face of very little evidence is strange to me. Can you two explain your case a bit better?

Collusion? What collusion? I voted and then Robz voted after me.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #515 on: June 02, 2012, 01:51:21 pm »

Addendum: Mostly, why is it collusion when me and Robz both vote for the same person, when theres two other people with 3+ votes on them? Are the 3 people voting on someone not colluding?

Its an inane point.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #516 on: June 02, 2012, 02:53:32 pm »

Okay, having read the recent exchange.... I really don't think Jotheonah is mafia. He seems to tense and angry. I think he would have played things a little closer to the chest if we were mafia. He's gone off on people a bit and... I would expect him to be more guarded. Really, I don't blame him for that "who do you think?" exercise at all. We need to do things like that or else we will have the dreaded "No Lynch," which nobody wants.

Unfortunately, I'm quite worried we're heading into a it's him or me scenario. Yuck.

So, about Eevee:

I feel like such a sheep, everytime someone posts a long, well-written analysis (actually, shorter ones do as well if they are smart enough) as to why someone is likely scum, I feel like "omg that's so correct!!". Makes me wonder how easily I could be (mis)led by mafia as well..
I cant really fathom Galzria being mafia after those posts, he sounds so genuine.. but maybe I'm way too easy to fool. Still, he looks to me like perhaps _the_ most helpful townie so he is the last person I'd vote for atm.

Btw, I dont mind the long posts at all guys, they feel helpful (even convincing) and you are not just talking in circles but actually getting somewhere with them.

// Haha O, i dont really understand what you are doing.

I am not buying his "aw shucks" routine at all. He is constantly, constantly saying things like he doesn't know what's going on, or is worried about being played, he's new to this, blah blah blah... he is down-playing his skills in every possible posts he makes. And they are silly. And every now and then they are serious. Indeed, he has already voted for me.

Could it be genuine? Sure. But I'm willing to be it's at least partly an act. That's the best lead I have. My only other big suspect is Dsell, but I guess there's a good chance that he is just wrong, wrong, wrong rather than he is mafia. So I would stick with Eevee.

Um, Galzria--can I convince you not to vote for J? You are so sure. I think you're wrong. He's being way too confrontational for mafia.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #517 on: June 02, 2012, 03:10:42 pm »

Robz, consider this: He's only become confrontational since I started getting on him. He was directing things back-scenes before then. And yes, I DO think that "exercise" was a terrible town move, disguised well.

I'm comfortable with my read and vote. Maybe it's unorthodox? But I don't think so. Being my first town game, and after just finishing a Mafia game, his actions strike me as nearly EXACTLY as I would have acted day 1.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #518 on: June 02, 2012, 03:11:53 pm »

But what about Eevee? Do you see what I'm saying? Lalala I don't know what I'm doing, I'm just a cute Pokemon, lalala... and IT'S SUSPICIOUS.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #519 on: June 02, 2012, 03:29:00 pm »

I do agree that Eevee is acting like... Well, exactly like Eevee says, he's being a sheep, not really adding anything new or original. Possible Mafia? Yes, I think he could be. But I think tells like that are dangerous to read day 1.

Not that my read on J isn't dangerous either. But I know J is a smart player. Like I said, I feel MORE inclined to suspect those I feel more comfortable with. The new people, I won't write off, but I have less knowledge to consider a case with.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #520 on: June 02, 2012, 03:39:36 pm »

But what about Eevee? Do you see what I'm saying? Lalala I don't know what I'm doing, I'm just a cute Pokemon, lalala... and IT'S SUSPICIOUS.
Uhm, the nickname I chose when joining this forum has something to do with my status in this game? Feels like some of your accusations dont really have anything to do with how people have behaved in this game.

Idk, I had a lot more confidence in my abilities when the game started (which was probably apparent by my posts as well). You know, I'm used to feeling smart.

When the game progressed, no one ever really said "thats a good point" or anything like that (and no, I dont think I thought of anything genious so not saying someone should have) but rather picked my posts apart saying "thats bad for town" (which isn't too couraging given helping town is all I know I've tried to do). Having this little clue as to who to vote also makes me feel like I'm not playing as well as I hoped before the game. You know, I've just felt a little stupid this whole game.
Fwiw I do know what I'm doing in the sense of "I try to think for as good reasons as possible for all my actions". I think I'm a new player with a somewhat realistic picture of my skill level atm, while before the game I was somewhat overconfident, thinking "how hard can it be".

I feel like me posting _anything_ at all this close to our deadline will only make me a more likely lynching target (especially since I dont have any "evidence" against anyone else - I just know my own role and try to explain my actions) but I have nothing to hide so I guess it's still better to try to explain myself. Robz, try not to make a connection with "how much someone has played &/ if you have played with them earlier / how well you think you are able to read someone" and their role in this game. I dont think choosing the somewhat random first lynch target only amongst the newer players is fair / good.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #521 on: June 02, 2012, 03:58:11 pm »

Popping in for now, and will be gone again soon until (probably) late tonight.

Day 1 is such a rollercoaster already.  Early suspects Morgrim and O are now vote-less, with the town gaze shifting in entirely new directions.

Galzria makes a very convincing post about j, and I actually agree with Robz' assessment of Eevee's "I feel like a sheep" talk.  But the problem is that I have that sentiment as well.  Reading Galzria's big post, I found my suspicions of j growing.  And then reading his defense alleviated that suspicion a fair bit.  So while I find Eevee's behaviour somewhat suspicious, the fact is that I'm the same way so I can't blame him for that.

I actually don't suspect Robz at all right now.  In my opinion, Galzria's points are stronger than j's defense.  I am therefore extremely inclined to vote for j.

Since I'll be away for most of today and my vote would put him at 4 (which could be critical mass?) I'll hold off for now and reevaluate tonight based on whatever new info we have.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #522 on: June 02, 2012, 04:24:19 pm »

I'm going to be on and off today, but obviously I will try to follow this as closely as possible.

As promised, here's a short analysis of how well I think people might be playing if they were mafia:

def: Super hard for me to get a read on, hoping to hear more back. So while I actually doubt he's mafia because of his inactivity, if he were, it is pretty smart. So at this point it would be a good mafia game, but only to get him to day 2.

Michaeljb: Moderately-light participant. He's had some good content but he's been succinct. Aside from Robz' and Galzria's assertions this is where mafia could be hiding, it looks like it would be decent mafia play. Definitely not bringing any strong suspicion down on himself day 1 but I don't think anyone is saying "oh yeah he's for sure town" either.

eHalcyon: Kinda the same boat as Michael, maybe a tad more substance. Decent mafia play but I really don't see it. I get a lot more of a town read on him.

yuma: Again, same boat as Michael. His posts tend to be a little forgettable, which is perhaps just where the mafia want to be day 1. Not really adding a ton to the conversation. It's not so much that it's like...transparently bad mafia play though or anything.

Voltgloss: Aside from being absent some I get a strong town read on him. He seems just very straight-forward, very bright. So if he's mafia, I think he's playing very well.

Eevee: Hmmmm...this is where it gets a little tougher, because he has some votes on him and some arguments against him. I could almost see this one going either way if he was mafia...his innocent newbieish ways are either a really terrible mafia ploy to deflect suspicion (bad mafia play) or a super sneaky mafia double play to look so suspicious that he couldn't be mafia (good but risky mafia play). Personally, I think he's just new. (He? I'm basically using "he" on everyone here, I don't know if it's right or not...)

Jotheonah: I don't see his play as very mafia. I actually agree with Robz, I think he's been somewhat reactionary, and I think a mafioso might be a bit more tempered. I'm also not so sure that his "who would you vote for if you had to vote tomorrow" stunt was such a bad idea because, well, here we are, we have to vote by tomorrow. I think it was a good opportunity for people to get a little more serious and get some suspicions out there. I'm not sure if this all means that he has played well if he's mafia, or if it means he's played badly as mafia. I mean, he has some people who really suspect him and some who really don't. I guess if he's mafia he's been doing ok?

O: It's been said a few times that he could be doing some sort of mafia double-play, making himself look too suspicious to be mafia. I basically agree that this could be the case, so while I tend to think he's town, he would be playing quite well if he were mafia.

Captain_Frisk: I'm not quite sure where I stand on this but I think if he were mafia he would not be playing the best game. He's added a few substantive things but one of the more significant things he's done is vote for Robz after I made a strong case for him. If he were mafia, trying to hop on a bandwagon really early might seem like a good idea, but I'm really not convinced that it is. Sure he'll probably make it through day one, but if he helped to mislynch Robz (I still think Robz is the best person to lynch, I think he's our best bet at getting mafia), I think there would be a LOT of suspicion on him. Because his play would look bad if he were mafia, I think Frisk is town.

Galzria: He's been strong and outspoken. Like he has admitted himself, his "helpfulness," by his own argument, could mean he's mafia. I think that if he is mafia, he's playing pretty well. I don't necessarily get a town vibe from him. But maybe I'm just jaded from his brilliant play in Mafia II.

Morgrim: Who. Knows. Seriously, I get a town read from him but I don't know if I could necessarily tell town Morgrim from mafia Morgrim. I guess I think he would take the game a little more seriously? Etiher way I don't think he's really dangerous or anything so I do NOT think he should be a factor in this weekend's voting.

Robz: Well I'm a little biased. Also, I actually think that I put him on the defensive pretty early in this game, so it probably is harder to get a read on him than others with a fair amount of posts. I personally think his defenses have been unconvincing and have reminded me so much of Mafia II where I suspected him of being mafia from the very start. Yet his other posts and even his defenses more recently (since the end of Mafia II maybe?) have been a little stronger. I think this is quite strong mafia play, and I think he's doing a good job of convincing you all to look elsewhere. I still think Robz is dangerous guys, seriously.

Dsell: Again, biased. But IF I were mafia, I actually don't think I would be playing well. I've taken one of the riskier game plans, going after one of the strongest and most experienced players, who is excellent at defending himself. I started a campaign against him before anyone else had suspected him at all, or even had any reason to suspect him. I could have jumped on Morgrim or O, who have confuzzled a few people, or on Eevee for being "suspiciously newbish" or on def because "we can't reward the non-participants." But no, I jumped on Robz, and have been fairly relentless. Seriously, how bad would that look if I led this whole campaign based on nothing and then we lynched town? Pretty bad. Of course that scenario also works if I'm misguided town (I certainly hope I'm not) but either way that's WAY more suspicion than I would want to put on myself early on if I were mafia.

I hope this helps someone! If you disagree about something, let me know! More discussion is good at this point! It's also getting perilously close to the time when we just really ought to vote, especially because there are likely to be a few people who are going to have to compromise who they think is the best option for someone else just because we really have got to get a lynch.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #523 on: June 02, 2012, 04:30:11 pm »

Well, it's time to vote for who I think is the most suspicious.  And for me, going everyone's Day 1 behavior, the most suspicious person I see - is Robz

- In post #338, Robz reacted to Dsell's suspicions - which he at first ignored, he admits now willingly - by (1) admitting them and (2) being, in his own words, nasty back to Dsell, claiming Dsell was near the top of his list of suspects.

- In post #375, Robz reacted to Dsell's increasing suspicions by admitting that he (Robz) has been doing the same things he accuses Dsell and Eevee of doing.  And adding that Dsell's "razor-focus" on him was "interesting."

- In post #402, Robz accused Dsell of leading a charge against one of the town's most helpful players (himself).  And said that Dsell's behavior is just how he'd expect a new player to act if he were Mafia.  And added that, if he (Robz) were Mafia, he wouldn't act the way he described Mafia should act.

- In post #426, Robz said he changes his play style each game.  He also accused Dsell of trying to preemptively weasel out of responsibility for/wash his hands of mislynching Robz.

- Finally, in post #471, Robz lays out the case for Dsell and Eevee.  He suspects Dsell because:

  • Dsell suspects him;
  • Dsell "pre-emptively defend[ed] himself in case of a mislynch.  Everybody remember that?"; and
  • Dsell is worried Robz will falsely roleclaim.

He suspects Eevee because:

  • Eevee joined the Robz-vote bandwagon before Robz had time to make his full analysis post; and
  • Eevee has made a variety of silly, "I'm new," and substantive posts.

He votes Eevee explicitly because there is already a vote on Eevee.

So, why do I suspect Robz?

  • He responded to Dsell's mild suspicion, first by ignoring it; second by being nasty back; and third by attacking him in return.
  • He has not fairly met Dsell's core criticism:  that Robz is acting exactly like he says the Mafia would act.  Robz admits this, but asserts it doesn't matter, because why would he act like he says the Mafia would act?  But this devolves into WIFOM* that I don't find compelling:  Robz himself laid out those criteria, and could just as well be a Mafia acting in accordance therewith so he could claim (as he has) that he can't be Mafia or he wouldn't have laid out those criteria.
  • His insistence that he is one of the town's most helpful players and so shouldn't be lynched.  But he hasn't been helpful;  he's been (in his own words) nasty, needling, and accusatory towards those who have dared to suspect him.
  • His accusation that Dsell tried to preemptively defend himself in case of a mislynch.  "Everybody remember that?"  Actually, no, Robz, I don't.  I remember you characterizing one of Dsell's posts as that, and I remember Dsell rebutting your characterization as inaccurate.  And I definitely do not remember you fairly meeting the substance of his rebuttal.  Or meeting it at all, in fact.

Robz says of Dsell, "he has a Robz888 focus and as Robz888 I don't get it."  As someone who is NOT Robz888, looking at their discussion from the outside, I do get it.

And finally, here's the clincher, from Robz's most recent post about Eevee:

But what about Eevee? Do you see what I'm saying? Lalala I don't know what I'm doing, I'm just a cute Pokemon, lalala... and IT'S SUSPICIOUS.

I don't recall Eevee saying he's "just a cute Pokemon."  I do recall someone saying it, though.

haha trying my best to be insightful and smart and coming out as silly, thats painful to hear :D

You are insightful. I meant that you are insightful and a little silly, which strikes me as mafia. But it could be that I am exaggerating how silly you are because you are a cute Pokemon.

Robz is accusing Eevee of doing something that, in fact, Robz himself did.

Vote: Robz

---

*WIFOM = Wine In Front Of Me.  See http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM

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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #524 on: June 02, 2012, 04:43:10 pm »

Well, I'm sorry for you, Voltgloss. Well articulated arguments and eventually votes against Morgrim, Kuildeous, Insomniac, and now me. You are about to be 0-4, my friend.

Substantive rebuttal to follow.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #525 on: June 02, 2012, 04:49:34 pm »

O, you could try being a little helpful.

Re: collusion. Let me say this a different way. Everyone who has multiple votes on them has had a case laid out against them. But at the time I wrote that I couldn't really find the case against Eevee. Just some vague comments and 2 votes. It seemed a little odd. I asked for clarification. I got it from Robz. You, however, jumped on one word of my post and ignored the part that was a question directly addressed to you.

So, O. Why are you voting for Eevee?
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #526 on: June 02, 2012, 04:52:10 pm »

Well, I'm sorry for you, Voltgloss. Well articulated arguments and eventually votes against Morgrim, Kuildeous, Insomniac, and now me. You are about to be 0-4, my friend.

See, but that's just really unhelpful and spiteful. If you are trying to discredit him, I think that's the worst, worst, worst way to do it. Especially because YOU and YOUR arguments were a large part of why he went 0-3. But now you blame and try to discredit him for it?

- In post #375, Robz reacted to Dsell's increasing suspicions by admitting that he (Robz) has been doing the same things he accuses Dsell and Eevee of doing.  And adding that Dsell's "razor-focus" on him was "interesting."

I actually thought this one was really interesting too. I didn't say much about it because it doesn't really mean much, just kind of a passing comment, but it struck me as him being a little incredulous, kinda dumbstruck that I would suspect him. I don't think a townie would be dumbstruck, but I think a mafia who thought he was playing well would be.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #527 on: June 02, 2012, 04:53:09 pm »

Well, I'm sorry for you, Voltgloss. Well articulated arguments and eventually votes against Morgrim, Kuildeous, Insomniac, and now me. You are about to be 0-4, my friend.

To be fair, those first three times I had two devils on my shoulders.  ;) 

(OMG AN EMOTICON AND HE'S BEING SILLY HE MUST BE MAFIA)  /sarcasm

Pre-post edit:  Ninja'd by Dsell, but I like my joke, so I'm still posting it.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #528 on: June 02, 2012, 04:56:48 pm »

(He? I'm basically using "he" on everyone here, I don't know if it's right or not...)

Eevee's isotropic name is MrEevee, so I assume "he".  Also, I posted this earlier but nobody responded!

Um, hey, what are all your preferred pronouns?  I don't want to refer to someone as "he" when she is a "she".  Or even an "it", if it prefers.

Anyway, it's actually time for me to go now.  Will check in again tonight.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #529 on: June 02, 2012, 05:00:30 pm »

Eevee's isotropic name is MrEevee, so I assume "he".  Also, I posted this earlier but nobody responded!

Oops, sorry! For the record I am a he. When I'm not sure I usually check people's profiles, but Eevee did not have a gender specified.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #530 on: June 02, 2012, 05:08:35 pm »

So, why do I suspect Robz?

  • He responded to Dsell's mild suspicion, first by ignoring it; second by being nasty back; and third by attacking him in return.
  • He has not fairly met Dsell's core criticism:  that Robz is acting exactly like he says the Mafia would act.  Robz admits this, but asserts it doesn't matter, because why would he act like he says the Mafia would act?  But this devolves into WIFOM* that I don't find compelling:  Robz himself laid out those criteria, and could just as well be a Mafia acting in accordance therewith so he could claim (as he has) that he can't be Mafia or he wouldn't have laid out those criteria.
  • His insistence that he is one of the town's most helpful players and so shouldn't be lynched.  But he hasn't been helpful;  he's been (in his own words) nasty, needling, and accusatory towards those who have dared to suspect him.
  • His accusation that Dsell tried to preemptively defend himself in case of a mislynch.  "Everybody remember that?"  Actually, no, Robz, I don't.  I remember you characterizing one of Dsell's posts as that, and I remember Dsell rebutting your characterization as inaccurate.  And I definitely do not remember you fairly meeting the substance of his rebuttal.  Or meeting it at all, in fact.

Okay, here is Dsell's weaseling out:

If I turn out to be wrong and lead your lynch and you turn out to be a townie, that would be very unfortunate. And I would expect a lot of suspicion to be cast on me, rightly so. But I trust that my posts thus far and future posts will be clear, well-reasoned, and show my support for the town.

And he did it again recently:

I'm going to be on and off today, but obviously I will try to follow this as closely as possible.

As promised, here's a short analysis of how well I think people might be playing if they were mafia:

Dsell: Again, biased. But IF I were mafia, I actually don't think I would be playing well. I've taken one of the riskier game plans, going after one of the strongest and most experienced players, who is excellent at defending himself. I started a campaign against him before anyone else had suspected him at all, or even had any reason to suspect him. I could have jumped on Morgrim or O, who have confuzzled a few people, or on Eevee for being "suspiciously newbish" or on def because "we can't reward the non-participants." But no, I jumped on Robz, and have been fairly relentless. Seriously, how bad would that look if I led this whole campaign based on nothing and then we lynched town? Pretty bad. Of course that scenario also works if I'm misguided town (I certainly hope I'm not) but either way that's WAY more suspicion than I would want to put on myself early on if I were mafia.

When I come up Town, Dsell is going to deflect the suspicion toward him by saying it was too risky and unnecessary for a mafia person to go after someone so strongly round 1. So he has his defense all planned. In that way, killing me is great for him, because it gets rid of a dangerous townie and creates a nice defense for him later: "See, I can't be mafia! I did this!" Not that this is essentially a defense I employed in Mafia II, by gradually trying to shift the opinion to, oh the mafia wouldn't have launched this campaign against Morgrim, it was dangerous and unnecessary, the non-Morgrim voters are the truly suspicious ones. When in reality, 2 of the 3 who strongly pushed for Morgrim were mafia. Dsell's mistake is that he is trying to do this before I am even dead and buried.

Robz says of Dsell, "he has a Robz888 focus and as Robz888 I don't get it."  As someone who is NOT Robz888, looking at their discussion from the outside, I do get it.

And finally, here's the clincher, from Robz's most recent post about Eevee:

But what about Eevee? Do you see what I'm saying? Lalala I don't know what I'm doing, I'm just a cute Pokemon, lalala... and IT'S SUSPICIOUS.

I don't recall Eevee saying he's "just a cute Pokemon."  I do recall someone saying it, though.

haha trying my best to be insightful and smart and coming out as silly, thats painful to hear :D

You are insightful. I meant that you are insightful and a little silly, which strikes me as mafia. But it could be that I am exaggerating how silly you are because you are a cute Pokemon.

Robz is accusing Eevee of doing something that, in fact, Robz himself did.

I didn't mean to imply that Eevee said he was a cute Pokemon. You're right, I said that, and sort of in jest both times. I apologize: You're right that I made it look the wrong way. That was unintentional. But my point about Eevee--that he wield his sheep-like attitude and his inexperience as a weapon--remains.

Volt, if I am mafia, I am playing a pretty sloppy game. Do I play sloppy?

Of course I don't expect to convince you. Yes, I'm accusing all the people who voted for me (well, not Captain Frisk), but I'm beginning to imagine a Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss team.

They have certainly already begun acquitting each other:

I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).

A final impression:  out of everyone else so far, Dsell seems to be making the most generally reasonable, well-thought-out posts.  If I had to pick "most likely other player to be Town" at this very moment, I'd pick him. 

I know what they will say, and I know what many of you will say: If they were all mafia, there's no way they would play so closely, or vote together so immediately, or invest such public trust in each other, because it would look two suspicious. I believe they are employing a double bluff (double, single, triple? I can't count). Because we would not suspect people who do that, for exactly that reason. I believe they are giving it a try--working in semi-obvious tandem, so in tandem that it can't be possible.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #531 on: June 02, 2012, 05:14:21 pm »

Eevee's isotropic name is MrEevee, so I assume "he".  Also, I posted this earlier but nobody responded!

Oops, sorry! For the record I am a he. When I'm not sure I usually check people's profiles, but Eevee did not have a gender specified.

A side note, but this has something to do with... something else I was wondering. This is a sort of out of left field request, but... I was really curious about everybody's gender, age, job, and country of origin. If you don't want to answer, that's fine, and of course you could just lie. I know this information might help me in my readings on a couple people.

Well, anyway, if nobody wants to do it, that's fine. But I'll start: I am a 23-year-old male from Detroit, Michigan. I am a journalist who writes mostly about public policy, specifically higher education.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #532 on: June 02, 2012, 05:16:30 pm »

Robz, I think you're grasping at straws.  The mafia don't need to lynch anyone today. They can live with a no-lynch. You're saying they're placing the first 3 votes on you? You are following your established scum pattern of always accusing your accusers. And I'm not buying it.

Unvote

Vote: Robz888

I'm voting precisely because I don't believe all of Robz's accusers to be mafia, and I'm finding their case against him much more compelling then either G's case against me or Robz's case against Eevee.

PREPOST EDIT:
You know this Robz, but journalist (science, magazine), 24, NYC
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #533 on: June 02, 2012, 05:19:57 pm »

I know what they will say, and I know what many of you will say: If they were all mafia, there's no way they would play so closely, or vote together so immediately, or invest such public trust in each other, because it would look two suspicious. I believe they are employing a double bluff (double, single, triple? I can't count). Because we would not suspect people who do that, for exactly that reason. I believe they are giving it a try--working in semi-obvious tandem, so in tandem that it can't be possible.

The idea that we are a team is ridiculous. That would be the WORST mafia play ever. You can make your above argument about literally any interaction. "Oh they are voting together? Must be a double bluff! They're mafia!" "Oh, Dsell and Galzria are making cases against different people? Must be a bluff to distract us! They're mafia!" "Oh, Jotheonah and Galzria are fighting with each other? They're really experienced...must be a triple bluff! They're mafia!"

Your rebuttal has made me feel pretty confident about my vote again.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #534 on: June 02, 2012, 05:24:25 pm »

Robz, I think you're grasping at straws.  The mafia don't need to lynch anyone today. They can live with a no-lynch. You're saying they're placing the first 3 votes on you? You are following your established scum pattern of always accusing your accusers. And I'm not buying it.

Actually, this is wrong. It's always been wrong. The mafia prefer lynching an innocent to No Lynch. They only prefer No Lynch to lynching mafia.

(Yes, last game I argued that No Lynch helped the mafia. I was lying. I was the mafia.)

The fewer day lynches, the more nights. The more nights, the more townies using their powers to figure things out. The mafia absolutely want two deaths per cycle, not one. They want us to kill someone, as long as it isn't one of them.

That's not to say WE should do No Lynch. But the mafia aren't aiming for No Lynch either. They are aiming for me.

Unvote

Vote: Robz888

I'm voting precisely because I don't believe all of Robz's accusers to be mafia, and I'm finding their case against him much more compelling then either G's case against me or Robz's case against Eevee.

PREPOST EDIT:
You know this Robz, but journalist (science, magazine), 24, NYC

Well, I'm not asking you to believe the case against all of them. I am asking you to believe the case against one of them: Eevee. 5 votes for me! This is trouble.

Well, perhaps it's not so bad. I can still win if I'm dead. I am a Townie, and you will learn that soon. Hopefully you will remember what I think: Please do not let Dsell acquit himself on his defense that "Oh, why would I go after Robz, if I were mafia?" I will suspect Eevee, Dsell, and Voltgloss to my grave. In any case, you will see that either Dsell or Voltgloss were very, very, very wrong--so stop listening to them!--or that perhaps they are mafia.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #535 on: June 02, 2012, 05:25:31 pm »

What I find more suspicious Robz, is that Volt COMPLETELY ignored me and J. This indicates to me (scary thought), that there very well could be 2 in V-J. See, V neither wanted to help J out directly by defending him, nor did he want to come after me because he can kill me at night. By ignoring J and I, and redirecting to where there is already suspicions he could hit two birds with one stone.

I'm not really going to focus on Mafiosi #2 at this point, but I feel that was very important to get out there. I had been waiting for awhile for V to speak up, and now he has. My Mafia trio :

J-V-#3
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #536 on: June 02, 2012, 05:25:43 pm »

The idea that we are a team is ridiculous. That would be the WORST mafia play ever.

But it comes with a built-in defense!
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #537 on: June 02, 2012, 05:26:53 pm »

What I find more suspicious Robz, is that Volt COMPLETELY ignored me and J. This indicates to me (scary thought), that there very well could be 2 in V-J. See, V neither wanted to help J out directly by defending him, nor did he want to come after me because he can kill me at night. By ignoring J and I, and redirecting to where there is already suspicions he could hit two birds with one stone.

I'm not really going to focus on Mafiosi #2 at this point, but I feel that was very important to get out there. I had been waiting for awhile for V to speak up, and now he has. My Mafia trio :

J-V-#3

Yeah, obviously I don't like J getting on this bandwagon. I mean, I can see him doing it just because he's town and he would rather not die, though, you know?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #538 on: June 02, 2012, 05:27:12 pm »

Basically town, V and J are trying RIGHT NOW to slam the door on Robz, and if successful, you will have NEITHER of us day 2.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #539 on: June 02, 2012, 05:29:15 pm »

Basically town, V and J are trying RIGHT NOW to slam the door on Robz, and if successful, you will have NEITHER of us day 2.

That is a good point.

TOWN: DO you hear us? I am absolutely going to come up Town (possibly in a few minutes). The bad guys are among these people who voted for me. I'm positive of that.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #540 on: June 02, 2012, 05:30:10 pm »

Can you see me doing it because the players who are attacking you are making a convincing argument whereas you are not? Cause that's what's happening...

I hate to leave it like this, I really do, but I have a ticket for a Jonathan Coulton concert and I gotta head out. Back on much later tonight.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #541 on: June 02, 2012, 05:31:13 pm »

Can you see me doing it because the players who are attacking you are making a convincing argument whereas you are not? Cause that's what's happening...

I hate to leave it like this, I really do, but I have a ticket for a Jonathan Coulton concert and I gotta head out. Back on much later tonight.

Their argument is terrible. Luckily, it will be disproved quite soon.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #542 on: June 02, 2012, 05:35:35 pm »

Well, perhaps it's not so bad. I can still win if I'm dead. I am a Townie, and you will learn that soon. Hopefully you will remember what I think: Please do not let Dsell acquit himself on his defense that "Oh, why would I go after Robz, if I were mafia?"

I am not making this defense. Robz is making it for me. I don't think I'm wrong. If I'm wrong, yeah it's gonna be suspicious. I've been transparent about that. If Robz IS mafia, I think it's safe to say that I will be acquitted (and probably will die at night). But NO one is for sure innocent if we lynch a townie. That's just the game.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #543 on: June 02, 2012, 05:40:02 pm »

Basically town, V and J are trying RIGHT NOW to slam the door on Robz, and if successful, you will have NEITHER of us day 2.

That is a good point.

TOWN: DO you hear us? I am absolutely going to come up Town (possibly in a few minutes). The bad guys are among these people who voted for me. I'm positive of that.

But this...is not true? Robz is at FIVE. SEVEN are needed to lynch. If V and J were mafia partners, their partner is UNABLE to hammer without some help. From someone who is not here? Galzria, you are adamant that Robz cannot be mafia. I don't understand this, but do you not realize that a lynch is better for the town than a no lynch? You seem just altogether unwilling to budge.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #544 on: June 02, 2012, 05:42:02 pm »

I DON'T think Eevee is Mafia. I DON'T think Dsell is Mafia. I don't know about most of the rest. I think Robz got quickly in over his head. It's a side effect of needling too much.

AT THIS POINT, Voltgloss and Jotheonah are trying to move Robz from "just a guy with a few votes" to "deadline is looming, let's kill someone!", and they are doing it as the middle voters!

I am 95% sure Robz is town. I WAS HIS MAFIA PARTNER last game, and this is NOT how he plays as Mafia!

J is Mafia, and I've got a VERY strong feeling Volt is his partner.

As was pointed out, a Mafia Robz would fakeclaim. With 5 votes he isn't! Those last 2 could come at any time. I BEG you to reconsider this. You're being played the same way Robz and I played Volt/Insomniac/Kuildeous/Jotheonah and the rest in M-II! I know because I DID it there.

All I can ask is that you trust me on this, talking from experience, and make the right choice NOW, before you go down 2 town by day 2.

Jotheonah IS Mafia. Volt PROBABLY is Mafia. Robz IS town.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #545 on: June 02, 2012, 05:46:07 pm »

I'm sitting in a movie about to start and will be unable to posst for several hours.  I did not comment on G vs. J because I find neither of them more suspicious than R, and had limited time to discuss my thoughts.  If people think I am suspicious for not weighing in on that debate, i'll do so, but it won't be until late tonight.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #546 on: June 02, 2012, 05:50:06 pm »

I DON'T think Eevee is Mafia. I DON'T think Dsell is Mafia. I don't know about most of the rest. I think Robz got quickly in over his head. It's a side effect of needling too much.

AT THIS POINT, Voltgloss and Jotheonah are trying to move Robz from "just a guy with a few votes" to "deadline is looming, let's kill someone!", and they are doing it as the middle voters!

I am 95% sure Robz is town. I WAS HIS MAFIA PARTNER last game, and this is NOT how he plays as Mafia!

J is Mafia, and I've got a VERY strong feeling Volt is his partner.

As was pointed out, a Mafia Robz would fakeclaim. With 5 votes he isn't! Those last 2 could come at any time. I BEG you to reconsider this. You're being played the same way Robz and I played Volt/Insomniac/Kuildeous/Jotheonah and the rest in M-II! I know because I DID it there.

All I can ask is that you trust me on this, talking from experience, and make the right choice NOW, before you go down 2 town by day 2.

Jotheonah IS Mafia. Volt PROBABLY is Mafia. Robz IS town.

Why are you SO panicked about this? Even if you die at night, if Robz turns up town it will only confirm what you are saying. I just don't see a need to get so worked up. Worst case scenario: Robz is lynched today and turns up town, you die tonight. Tons of suspicion on me, I am lynched tomorrow and turn up town, a rando is killed in the night. At this point your theory looks REALLY REALLY good and the town would have to consider it, and they would still have time. So quit freaking out.

The only thing that could throw a wrench in things is if we have a serial killer, but I don't think we should/can even factor that in until we see what happens in the night.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #547 on: June 02, 2012, 05:50:46 pm »

Yes, he can't be quick hammered, and he won't. Hammering isn't a real Mafia tool. Can you not see that? It's a scare tactic and a hide tactic by the Mafia. "The biggest suspect in a lynch vote is the final one" IS A FALLACY. It's a tactic employed BY the Mafia because it seems logical. The Mafia will already moved the vote within striking distance, and then let a townie cast the lynch votes. What better way to set them up for the next day? Think about it.

We need to vote, yes. But we have the chance to vote right here people, not wrong. The tells are all there, as I've explained them. But people need to open their eyes and realize that the Mafia in this game aren't going to magically appear scummy, when they never do in ANY game of forum Mafia. Robz is the wrong place to go, and we have the time to make the right choice now.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #548 on: June 02, 2012, 05:55:32 pm »

Dsell,, your arguments now are: let's lynch him, and let you die, and then watch two more town go day 2. It's all ok.

That's a TERRIBLE stance. Basically "I'm willing to lynch town and don't care to hit Mafia when we have the chance". I'm not worried about a no-lynch vote right now. We still have time to make a GOOD choice. Pushing for a kill with time to consider still is very, very bad.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #549 on: June 02, 2012, 05:58:25 pm »

In addition, while your argument (briefly) mentions SK, it doesn't take into account letting the Mafia get 2 free shots at hitting our town roles.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #550 on: June 02, 2012, 06:02:44 pm »

Dsell,, your arguments now are: let's lynch him, and let you die, and then watch two more town go day 2. It's all ok.

No no no no no. Are you willfully misunderstanding me? I specifically said that is the WORST case scenario. I believe Robz is mafia. His own rebuttals convince of that more and more, while your urges that I reconsider are frankly not helping much.

But hear this, Galzria: You are defending Robz SO strongly it actually appears that that would be too transparent if you were both mafia. So for now I will assume you are town. (If you were mafia and Robz was town I assume you would have no problem lynching him). Ok, so for now you're town. Please look over what I have said and what Voltgloss has said against Robz. I am not so sure that you have such a good feel for him that you would be able to say absolutely that he is innocent. If he wants to play well as mafia, part of that would be to convince you, his former partner, that he is town. Try to set aside your preconceptions and look at how he's acted in THIS game. How does it look? WHY does it look so very town to you? Just be thinking about this.

And quit trying to whip things into a frenzy. We don't want people to feel panicked and vote because of that. We want people to look at arguments logically and make a decision based on that.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #551 on: June 02, 2012, 06:08:05 pm »

But hear this, Galzria: You are defending Robz SO strongly it actually appears that that would be too transparent if you were both mafia. So for now I will assume you are town. (If you were mafia and Robz was town I assume you would have no problem lynching him). Ok, so for now you're town. Please look over what I have said and what Voltgloss has said against Robz. I am not so sure that you have such a good feel for him that you would be able to say absolutely that he is innocent. If he wants to play well as mafia, part of that would be to convince you, his former partner, that he is town. Try to set aside your preconceptions and look at how he's acted in THIS game. How does it look? WHY does it look so very town to you? Just be thinking about this.

I think you are under-thinking things. The mafia could be using--wait for it--complicated strategies where they take the preconceived notions about what mafia would do and use them to their advantage.

"You are defending Robz SO strongly it actually appears that that would be too transparent if you were both mafia. So for now I will assume you are town."

Don't you see how he might expect you to think that, and do it anyway?

(Note, I'm not arguing Galzria is mafia--just an example of how your thinking about what the mafia would and wouldnt do is too simple.)
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #552 on: June 02, 2012, 06:14:09 pm »

But hear this, Galzria: You are defending Robz SO strongly it actually appears that that would be too transparent if you were both mafia. So for now I will assume you are town. (If you were mafia and Robz was town I assume you would have no problem lynching him). Ok, so for now you're town. Please look over what I have said and what Voltgloss has said against Robz. I am not so sure that you have such a good feel for him that you would be able to say absolutely that he is innocent. If he wants to play well as mafia, part of that would be to convince you, his former partner, that he is town. Try to set aside your preconceptions and look at how he's acted in THIS game. How does it look? WHY does it look so very town to you? Just be thinking about this.

I think you are under-thinking things. The mafia could be using--wait for it--complicated strategies where they take the preconceived notions about what mafia would do and use them to their advantage.

"You are defending Robz SO strongly it actually appears that that would be too transparent if you were both mafia. So for now I will assume you are town."

Don't you see how he might expect you to think that, and do it anyway?

(Note, I'm not arguing Galzria is mafia--just an example of how your thinking about what the mafia would and wouldnt do is too simple.)

I'm not clearing him. I'm saying that FOR NOW I will assume he is town so I will talk to him as a town. He has no votes anyway so it's not like he's on the chopping block. I'm not worried RIGHT NOW about figuring out who the whole mafia team is, I'm trying to lynch mafia and work from there. I've said before that I have my suspicions of Galzria. His seeming refusal to budge does not make me less suspicious. But I wanted to talk to him for a minute as a townie, with no suspicion in my voice. We'll see how he reacts.

But don't assume that I'm stupid. K?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #553 on: June 02, 2012, 06:15:03 pm »

The logical arguments are for Jotheonah, as I laid out. Robz has in fact NOT acted like a Mafia would act this game because he has in fact NOT acted like the Mafia in EVERY OTHER GAME. Are you willfully misunderstanding me?

Your scenario isn't the worst case, it is the likeliest case. Except for one thing. I WON'T die at night. Why prove my point for me? No, they'll let me live, use that to prove I'm wrong, and then turn the conversation elsewhere.

It seems like the only person being willfully blind is you. You're refusing to think anything through, and trying to get people to calmly vote Robz. As I know this is a mistake, I am doing what I can to prevent it. 5 votes is at a very dangerous point. We are about to go into tumble that helps the Mafia FAR more than town.

I don't know what your vendetta against R is, but if the vote goes through, good job hitting town.

As far as Voltgloss goes, a town Voltgloss would not ignore anything. His points are very well made, and I would never, ever expect less from him. You're to busy using what he did say to pound your point that you are again being blind to what he didn't say, and I've already covered that.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #554 on: June 02, 2012, 06:26:42 pm »


2) The biggest lesson for me is "O is a terrible player"


I'll just repeat my Mafia I voting record:

Townie over Town Cop
Mafia Rolecop over Town Cop
Mafia (universal tho)

I also sparked tons of contributions to this thread, whereas you've been nearly entirely silent.

Have you even played much mafia before? It'd be funny if you made such a claim while being relatively inexperienced.

Plus you vote for robz without a real reason to.


Unvote
Vote:Eevee

@J
Though you're being pathetically suspicious there-> claiming 2 people voting on one person is "collusion" when three isn't, demanding explanations that were given alongside the vote anyways.

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #555 on: June 02, 2012, 06:30:38 pm »

Your scenario isn't the worst case, it is the likeliest case. Except for one thing. I WON'T die at night. Why prove my point for me? No, they'll let me live, use that to prove I'm wrong, and then turn the conversation elsewhere.

It seems like the only person being willfully blind is you. You're refusing to think anything through, and trying to get people to calmly vote Robz. As I know this is a mistake, I am doing what I can to prevent it. 5 votes is at a very dangerous point. We are about to go into tumble that helps the Mafia FAR more than town.

I don't know what your vendetta against R is, but if the vote goes through, good job hitting town.

My scenario didn't hinge on you being killed night one. If you are still around, your case not only becomes stronger but you are still there to argue it! Personally, I would be much more receptive to your way of thinking if things go that way. Right now, my strongest conviction is that Robz is mafia. If I see otherwise, I will have to take another stance.

But you sure seem very confident that Robz is town for someone who supposedly only knows his own role.

So if you are town, you really can't know that Robz is town too (ok I guess outside shot that you two are masons...fwiw I will be awfully suspicious if you claim that now). If Robz is town and you are mafia you probably wouldn't mind hopping on Robz. I dismissed a possible Robz-Galzria connection earlier because you are defending him so fiercely. Suppose you two ARE outplaying me though and this is a double-bluff. Well, Galz can't ignore the fact that Robz is near being lynched. He probably can't hop on the bandwagon and vote fellow mafia off in the first round. But since he can't do that, he has to try to defend Robz, right? Otherwise he has no good excuse for being unwilling to come to a consensus (which he looks so unwilling to do).

I'm NOT saying that Galzria is mafia. I'm doing a thought experiment because Galz and Robz are so kindly prodding me to think a little deeper about the game. I have to go now for a while. Back with more thoughts later.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #556 on: June 02, 2012, 06:33:02 pm »

Your scenario isn't the worst case, it is the likeliest case. Except for one thing. I WON'T die at night. Why prove my point for me? No, they'll let me live, use that to prove I'm wrong, and then turn the conversation elsewhere.

It seems like the only person being willfully blind is you. You're refusing to think anything through, and trying to get people to calmly vote Robz. As I know this is a mistake, I am doing what I can to prevent it. 5 votes is at a very dangerous point. We are about to go into tumble that helps the Mafia FAR more than town.

I don't know what your vendetta against R is, but if the vote goes through, good job hitting town.

My scenario didn't hinge on you being killed night one. If you are still around, your case not only becomes stronger but you are still there to argue it! Personally, I would be much more receptive to your way of thinking if things go that way. Right now, my strongest conviction is that Robz is mafia. If I see otherwise, I will have to take another stance.

But you sure seem very confident that Robz is town for someone who supposedly only knows his own role.

So if you are town, you really can't know that Robz is town too (ok I guess outside shot that you two are masons...fwiw I will be awfully suspicious if you claim that now). If Robz is town and you are mafia you probably wouldn't mind hopping on Robz. I dismissed a possible Robz-Galzria connection earlier because you are defending him so fiercely. Suppose you two ARE outplaying me though and this is a double-bluff. Well, Galz can't ignore the fact that Robz is near being lynched. He probably can't hop on the bandwagon and vote fellow mafia off in the first round. But since he can't do that, he has to try to defend Robz, right? Otherwise he has no good excuse for being unwilling to come to a consensus (which he looks so unwilling to do).

I'm NOT saying that Galzria is mafia. I'm doing a thought experiment because Galz and Robz are so kindly prodding me to think a little deeper about the game. I have to go now for a while. Back with more thoughts later.

Claiming someone is Mafia day one is unsubstantiated but neccesary. Claim there existed a mafia pair day one... I'm not implicating you at all, don't worry, but the odds just don't support such an unnecessary endeavor.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #557 on: June 02, 2012, 06:36:15 pm »

I am SO tempted to pull an O, and ask Robz if I can lynch him to teach the town a lesson. Except that it's such a terrible idea.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #558 on: June 02, 2012, 06:59:22 pm »

I am SO tempted to pull an O, and ask Robz if I can lynch him to teach the town a lesson. Except that it's such a terrible idea.

Oh, goodness I would understand it. I briefly flirted with pulling a Morgrim (self-lynch). I worry that the best help I can be at this point is to show the town the truth.

I would say with some certainty that 2 of the mafia are among the following people: Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss, Jo.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #559 on: June 02, 2012, 07:01:28 pm »

This reminds me of a Possession deck. One person plays the Possessions, one person trashes his deck with VP.
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I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #560 on: June 02, 2012, 07:03:34 pm »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Robz888 (5) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee, Voltgloss, jotheonah
jotheonah (3) - Galzria, yuma, michaeljb,
Eevee (2) - O, Robz

Not Voting (3) - def, Morgrim7, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #561 on: June 02, 2012, 07:05:17 pm »

Claiming someone is Mafia day one is unsubstantiated but neccesary. Claim there existed a mafia pair day one... I'm not implicating you at all, don't worry, but the odds just don't support such an unnecessary endeavor.

Hey I'm back for a quick second. I didn't claim a mafia pair. I specifically said I was not claiming Galz was mafia. Simply a thought experiment.

Why are Galz and Robz now flirting with tactics they denounced so strongly before? Just...don't.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #562 on: June 02, 2012, 07:09:21 pm »

Dsell, why do you care if Robz is Mafia?
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #563 on: June 02, 2012, 07:10:02 pm »

Claiming someone is Mafia day one is unsubstantiated but neccesary. Claim there existed a mafia pair day one... I'm not implicating you at all, don't worry, but the odds just don't support such an unnecessary endeavor.

Hey I'm back for a quick second. I didn't claim a mafia pair. I specifically said I was not claiming Galz was mafia. Simply a thought experiment.

Why are Galz and Robz now flirting with tactics they denounced so strongly before? Just...don't.

Because its really really fun to self hammer if you're the one doing it.  ;D
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #564 on: June 02, 2012, 07:10:30 pm »

That is, why do you care if I lynch him or he lychees himself?
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #565 on: June 02, 2012, 07:16:10 pm »

I'm pretty sure Robz isn't mafia. I'm not too sure about J but he's more likely than R if it comes down to that.

I have my suspicions but will keep mum as it seems unlikely that it will amount to anything
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #566 on: June 02, 2012, 07:17:51 pm »

Truthfully, it doesn't make sense for me to do it. But for Robz it does. If there is one Mafia who isn't voting Robz, they never have to. Either town will lynch him themselves and Mafia get a fresh target day 2, or nobody votes him, and the Mafia get a free night kill.

So Robz can hammer himself to protect a townie from making a target of themselves.

Not that I think he should. But it wouldn't be terrible.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #567 on: June 02, 2012, 07:19:08 pm »

Truthfully, it doesn't make sense for me to do it. But for Robz it does. If there is one Mafia who isn't voting Robz, they never have to. Either town will lynch him themselves and Mafia get a fresh target day 2, or nobody votes him, and the Mafia get a free night kill.

So Robz can hammer himself to protect a townie from making a target of themselves.

Not that I think he should. But it wouldn't be terrible.

Sounds awfully like my discredited logic
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #568 on: June 02, 2012, 07:22:07 pm »

Shush O. ;)

Sometimes things don't make sense until you're presented with the situation. I bow to your lordly knowledge. I was wrong. It isn't a good play, but it's not terrible.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #569 on: June 02, 2012, 08:37:35 pm »

Galzria, how does this fit into your theory?

Vote: jotheonah

Reasoning later when I have time to provide.  Short version:  I floated an experiment, and it had an interesting result.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #570 on: June 02, 2012, 08:43:23 pm »

Fits my first half, but shocks my second. If there's truth or confusion behind your action, I don't know. But I stand behind my belief that J is Mafia.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #571 on: June 02, 2012, 09:00:22 pm »

I'll wait for your post Volt, but I still don't know what to think about you in this game. I never built a case against you, or indeed said much about you because of that. But I feel really strongly Robz is town. And his vote totals were getting uncomfortably high. Add in your very NON Volt like thing to do of not analyzing every little thing before posting, and I grew quite suspicious.

You could still be either, but my day 1 case is for Jotheonah. I stand by it.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #572 on: June 02, 2012, 09:06:32 pm »

That is, why do you care if I lynch him or he lychees himself?

I think it sets a bad precedent. Galz, if you want to vote for him, fine, but I think votes right now should be based on good reasoning. In crunch time, votes should be meant. Anything else seems to only hurt the town.

@Voltgloss, I'm definitely interested in hearing about your experiment.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #573 on: June 02, 2012, 09:09:57 pm »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Robz888 (4) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee, jotheonah
jotheonah (4) - Galzria, yuma, michaeljb, Voltgloss
Eevee (2) - O, Robz

Not Voting (3) - def, Morgrim7, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #574 on: June 02, 2012, 09:10:49 pm »

That is, why do you care if I lynch him or he lychees himself?

I think it sets a bad precedent. Galz, if you want to vote for him, fine, but I think votes right now should be based on good reasoning. In crunch time, votes should be meant. Anything else seems to only hurt the town.

@Voltgloss, I'm definitely interested in hearing about your experiment.

Read my next post. I wouldn't cast the vote. But if you're so sure he is Mafia you should have no problem with him self-lynching.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #575 on: June 02, 2012, 09:13:26 pm »

If there's one thing Mafia II taught me ("what did we learn, Palmer?"), it's that putting ALL your cards on the table gives the Mafia an inside peek into your head.  Galz and Robz took full advantage of that, and I'm trying to learn from my mistakes.

Quote
Add in your very NON Volt like thing to do of not analyzing every little thing before posting, and I grew quite suspicious.

Just because I didn't post about everything doesn't mean I didn't analyze everything.  The problem is that analysis left me with a strong suspicion of jotheonah AND a strong suspicion of Robz.  That suspicion was slightly higher for Robz - I stand by everything in my post, and am interested to hear Robz's factual rebuttal when it comes - but is high for jotheonah too.  So what do I do?  Is there anything I could do to possibly test one of those suspicions?

Well, if I voted for Robz, he'd be at 4 out of 7.  That's on the cusp of bandwagoning, but not likely to occur assuming at least SOME of the Mafia have voted.  (And I'm guessing, as about 2/3 of us have voted, then about 2/3 of the Mafia have likely voted as well.)  So - what if I lay out my reasons for voting for Robz (solid reasons), vote, and just leave it at that?  Who will take the bait of pushing the vote up into real bandwagon territory?

Interestingly, the answer to that question was "jotheonah."

So there you go.  Apologies for not being 100% up front crystal clear naive like I was in Mafia II.  Burned me once.  Hoping not a second time.

(Dsell:  I still think your arguments are sound for all the reasons I've stated.  The thing is, some - not all; but some - of what Galzria has identified re: jotheonah is resonating with me too.  When I have time next I'll post at further length on that.  But we now have more information;  and that information now makes jotheonah MORE suspicious to me than Robz.)
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #576 on: June 02, 2012, 09:19:11 pm »

That's fair Volt. Like I said, it read, well, apparently just like you wanted it to.

But you'll forgive me if I can't base my reads off you based on what's in your head and not in a post. I could only judge - and react - on what you've done, not what you plan to do.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #577 on: June 02, 2012, 09:25:06 pm »

So, def's been MIA for more than 48 hours now, how does this prod request thing work?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #578 on: June 02, 2012, 09:26:26 pm »


Just because I didn't post about everything doesn't mean I didn't analyze everything.  The problem is that analysis left me with a strong suspicion of jotheonah AND a strong suspicion of Robz.  That suspicion was slightly higher for Robz - I stand by everything in my post, and am interested to hear Robz's factual rebuttal when it comes - but is high for jotheonah too.  So what do I do?

It's day one, bro. Still little information. Remember?
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #579 on: June 02, 2012, 09:27:54 pm »


Just because I didn't post about everything doesn't mean I didn't analyze everything.  The problem is that analysis left me with a strong suspicion of jotheonah AND a strong suspicion of Robz.  That suspicion was slightly higher for Robz - I stand by everything in my post, and am interested to hear Robz's factual rebuttal when it comes - but is high for jotheonah too.  So what do I do?

It's day one, bro. Still little information. Remember?

Doesn't mean I can't try to get information where I can!
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #580 on: June 02, 2012, 09:34:03 pm »

This is really interesting. And rereading his vote for Robz, the reasons he gives are pretty cursory (though...I guess there wasn't that much more to say at that point). Then he disappeared. I feel quite good about my vote for Robz but I do think it's important to settle on someone, so I may change my vote at some point. I would like to give him a chance to defend himself and I may not be able check this for several more hours (RL gaming).

So I'll leave it at that until later tonight I guess. I'd really, really love to hear from Morgrim, def, and eHalcyon too.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #581 on: June 02, 2012, 09:34:47 pm »

Oops, when I say "his," I'm referring to Jotheonah. I was basically responding to Voltgloss' longer post.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #582 on: June 02, 2012, 09:52:23 pm »

Ok, I am paranoid worried that I will not be able to vote, (unless I can vote before church tomorrow) so I am going to vote now.
Vote: jotheonah mainly for the same reasons as everyone else. What more can I say that has not been over-analyzed?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #583 on: June 02, 2012, 10:59:33 pm »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Robz888 (4) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee, jotheonah
jotheonah (5) - Galzria, yuma, michaeljb, Voltgloss, Morgrim7
Eevee (2) - O, Robz

Not Voting (2) - def, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT

michaeljb: I have sent a ping to def
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #584 on: June 02, 2012, 11:30:33 pm »

Hmm, while the case Galzria is presenting against joh feels quite compelling, I'm kind of hesitant to cast the "penultimate" vote given I still think Robz is more mafia-y. That being said, I'd rather see johtheonah lynched than nolynch, we have something like 24h left so if joh is the only "realistic" possibility, I guess I'd be content with him as well (yeah, him rather than me at least for obvious reasons).

As a somewhat unrelated note: I find def's silence pretty damn suspicious at this point. Feels like he's just avoiding any attention, and town players tend to try help town at least some. We obviously have more pressing matters to discuss today but just putting that out there in case I die at night (seems unlikely but what do i know) or something.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #585 on: June 02, 2012, 11:35:59 pm »

A bit off topic, but I wanted to respond to Robz's inquiry much earlier (I still can't believe how much more gets said by adding just 4 people. Day 1 looks prepped to exceed both other Mafia games length on just the first day!):

I was born in Howell, Michigan. Grew up in the Lansing/Brighton area. Lived for some years in Aurora, IL (way cool), and now reside in Sunnyvale, CA. I'm 27, and studied Political Science, with an emphasis on Constitutional Law, and Film/Television cinematography with an emphasis in Journalism.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #586 on: June 02, 2012, 11:41:17 pm »

Oh right, I'm a 21 year old male, I live in Helsinki (Finland, Europe if you really dont know your geography) and play poker for a living. It was amusing to have you puzzled with the avatar and everything but the jig is up. :)
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #587 on: June 03, 2012, 12:09:38 am »

If there's one thing Mafia II taught me ("what did we learn, Palmer?"), it's that putting ALL your cards on the table gives the Mafia an inside peek into your head.  Galz and Robz took full advantage of that, and I'm trying to learn from my mistakes.

Quote
Add in your very NON Volt like thing to do of not analyzing every little thing before posting, and I grew quite suspicious.

Just because I didn't post about everything doesn't mean I didn't analyze everything.  The problem is that analysis left me with a strong suspicion of jotheonah AND a strong suspicion of Robz.  That suspicion was slightly higher for Robz - I stand by everything in my post, and am interested to hear Robz's factual rebuttal when it comes - but is high for jotheonah too.  So what do I do?  Is there anything I could do to possibly test one of those suspicions?

Well, if I voted for Robz, he'd be at 4 out of 7.  That's on the cusp of bandwagoning, but not likely to occur assuming at least SOME of the Mafia have voted.  (And I'm guessing, as about 2/3 of us have voted, then about 2/3 of the Mafia have likely voted as well.)  So - what if I lay out my reasons for voting for Robz (solid reasons), vote, and just leave it at that?  Who will take the bait of pushing the vote up into real bandwagon territory?

Interestingly, the answer to that question was "jotheonah."

So there you go.  Apologies for not being 100% up front crystal clear naive like I was in Mafia II.  Burned me once.  Hoping not a second time.

(Dsell:  I still think your arguments are sound for all the reasons I've stated.  The thing is, some - not all; but some - of what Galzria has identified re: jotheonah is resonating with me too.  When I have time next I'll post at further length on that.  But we now have more information;  and that information now makes jotheonah MORE suspicious to me than Robz.)

Does no one else see that this doesn't make any sense?

First Volt says "I find Robz suspicious for the reasons Dsell laid out"

But, he says, new information! Jtotheonah voted for Robz. That makes him more supicious, therefore he must be mafia.

No! Volt, you also voted for Robz. You're saying that my doing EXACTLY WHAT YOU JUST DID is the extra information you need to know I'm mafia.

I voted for Robz because we're close to the deadline and need a lynch. You know, the same reason you're all suddenly changing your votes to me.  So tell me why that reads more scum than town? Your confirmation bias is making you see it that way, but if you look at the facts, all I did with that vote was exactly what the rest of you are doing with your votes. This is crazy. Robz is still your top suspect. The case against me is still (1) VERY FLIMSY and (2) led, to a suspicious degree, by a single player. Don't get taken in.

Consider that Galz and Robz were both convinced Volt was mafia, and now that he's changed his vote it's very unlikely we both are. So that shows about how much their convictions are worth.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #588 on: June 03, 2012, 12:15:46 am »

About worth as much add we're given. In your case, more than enough. In Volts case, half the story (at first).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #589 on: June 03, 2012, 12:21:19 am »

Sorry, reading that, it was a little more crude than I intended. My whole thought process on Volt was that he HADN'T acted like Volt. And in a very suspicious way. My thoughts on you, I don't believe are flimsy at all (obviously). And Volt's responses have had a lot more credibility than yours. I'm more inclined to believe his actions for his stated reasons.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #590 on: June 03, 2012, 12:22:53 am »

*Sigh*

Ok, I was hoping it wouldn't come to this. And you probably won't believe me. But I'm not JUST town and it would be a very big mistake to lynch me Day 1. I will do a full claim if the town thinks it's best.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #591 on: June 03, 2012, 12:26:30 am »

I'll leave that to others, but I'll point out first that it's not surprising. People thought Robz would as Mafia, and sure enough, when the frying pan got hot... Nothing. 5 votes YOUR way however...
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #592 on: June 03, 2012, 12:28:58 am »

Galzria, will you at least grant me that if I am what I say I am, a power townie, it's the right play for me to claim right now?  I will also point out that, if you are still keeping your mind at all open, it should make you see your "protests too much" case against me in a different light.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #593 on: June 03, 2012, 12:36:40 am »

Ok, well I need to go to bed. I'll be on tomorrow morning and if people want me to full claim I'll do it in the morning. In any event, please afford me the courtesy of staying Vote #7 and allowing me my last words.

Or, alternately, just unvote and don't make this horrible town mistake.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #594 on: June 03, 2012, 12:41:01 am »

Damnit J, you were not going to be lynched. At least, not if I could sway it against you (as I did in M1)
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #595 on: June 03, 2012, 12:42:13 am »

Hey,  I will always own up to my mistakes. I just don't believe I've made one at this time.

I hope there is a day in the future where we can be Mafia together, instead of against each other/not known. I enjoy having you in the game... Just not enough to not kill you when you've raised my suspicions.

Mason teammates would be cool too.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #596 on: June 03, 2012, 12:44:21 am »

You may just have to settle for us having been town together. For one day.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #597 on: June 03, 2012, 01:21:25 am »

I will UNVOTE for the sole purpose of letting jotheonah have his say in the morning without having to worry about being lynched in his (RL) sleep. 

I also still would like to see Robz's rebuttal to the points I raised.  I understand that, with his timeschedule, that probably won't be coming until the next few hours (when I'll be asleep too).  So, a lot to read in the morning.

Once I've seen what Robz and jotheonah have to say, I will again vote.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #598 on: June 03, 2012, 01:24:03 am »

I hate hate hate that this is going to the last minute. O, I want to hear more!! You say things like "you were not going to be lynched," so say whatever you were going to say anyway! I want to know where your suspicions are at, especially because your vote for Eevee before looked reactionary and it doesn't look like it will be a factor now anyway.

I still may end up voting for jotheonah but I want to at least respect that he could be a power role and not put him in a hammer position. Also, I'm STILL more suspicious of Robz. Seriously, his rebuttal to Volt's arguments made me MORE suspicious of him. Volt has changed his tune and it looks like he has his reasons, and that's great. But because of the supposed roleclaim (why would you string us along till morning, jo? We are in a hurry and it just looks like you are wasting a bit of time) and because my suspicions of Robz are as strong as ever, I'm still keeping my vote on him.

I think I'll be up for a couple more hours...I'm on Pacific time and will try to check in the morning again, then of course in the afternoon assuming there hasn't been a lynch yet.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #599 on: June 03, 2012, 01:32:38 am »

Well, I just find it pretty likely that Robz and J are both likely NOT mafia. Who I do suspect I'd rather not say, as I can't really put my reasons for suspicion into words ATM...
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #600 on: June 03, 2012, 01:38:16 am »

I should add that, when I ask for a rebuttal from Robz to the points I raised, I do recall he gave a rebuttal to a couple of points.  (Not all of them.)  Specifically, citing the "weaseling out" that Dsell is supposed to have done (does anyone else agree with Robz that those posts of Dsell's are as suspicious as he sees them?) and apologizing for putting his own words in Eevee's mouth. 

The "rebuttal" I'm waiting for is what's alluded to here:

Can you see me doing it because the players who are attacking you are making a convincing argument whereas you are not? Cause that's what's happening...

I hate to leave it like this, I really do, but I have a ticket for a Jonathan Coulton concert and I gotta head out. Back on much later tonight.

Their argument is terrible. Luckily, it will be disproved quite soon.

I assume something further is coming to disprove the arguments against Robz.  That's what I'm hoping to see in the morning.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #601 on: June 03, 2012, 01:41:26 am »

Grah, forgot something.

Robz, you said that you've been playing "sloppy" if you were Mafia, and asked me if you play sloppy.  The implication, of course, being that because you're playing sloppy, you can't be Mafia.

The problem is that you yourself said you change the way you play with every game. 

You just got done playing a game as Mafia where you were far from sloppy.  Now, you're in a new game.  You're supposedly being "sloppy."  But you change the way you play every game.  So how does that acquit you?  If you were really Mafia again in this game, I think the last thing you would do is play just like you played in M-II.

I'm not saying "you must be Mafia because you're playing differently than M-II."  I'm saying that I don't find comparing your behavior in this game to your behavior in M-II is really all that compelling one way or another.  (I know this is a centerpiece of Dsell's argument.  You'll notice I didn't cite it.  That's because I don't find it compelling.)
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #602 on: June 03, 2012, 01:47:49 am »

Robz needs more defense? We don't even have a case against him.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #603 on: June 03, 2012, 01:57:37 am »

I'm not saying "you must be Mafia because you're playing differently than M-II."  I'm saying that I don't find comparing your behavior in this game to your behavior in M-II is really all that compelling one way or another.  (I know this is a centerpiece of Dsell's argument.  You'll notice I didn't cite it.  That's because I don't find it compelling.)

Maybe I overstated my point? Or didn't come across well? I didn't even follow all of Mafia II, just early on and the very end. And while I saw some definite similarities there, there were of course differences too. Robz stated that he plays differently every time, Galz pointed out a key difference, and of course Galz has said over and over that Robz' playstyle seems different. Ok, great. Maybe it was different on the whole. But I had the same feeling at the beginning of both games that he was mafia. At the start of this game, before Mafia II was over, I didn't even realize yet that I had been right about him all along. So I didn't make much of that small suspicion. But it turns out I was right in Mafia II and I got that exact same feeling from him at the beginning of day one here. Still! That was never the "centerpiece" of my argument, just the thing that first made me want to hear more from him and I then later used it as some supporting evidence.

O, are you going to get around to doing anything or are you content to twiddle your thumbs and make comments from the sidelines?
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #604 on: June 03, 2012, 02:00:54 am »

But I had the same feeling at the beginning of both games that he was mafia. At the start of this game, before Mafia II was over, I didn't even realize yet that I had been right about him all along.

Sorry, this is a misstatement. I didn't have a feeling at the beginning of THIS game that he was mafia. I wasn't ready to make any assumptions yet. But I got the same feeling as in Mafia II, where he eventually turned up as mafia. Mind you these "feelings" aren't based on nothing, they are based mostly on how radically different he was in Mafia II and III from Mafia I, but here we are getting into more game comparison and dream-within-a-dream stuff, so I just won't go there.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #605 on: June 03, 2012, 02:08:13 am »

Twiddling my thumbs on the sidelines? I'd respond to that inane post if I knew what the hell you were saying in the first place.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #606 on: June 03, 2012, 02:16:40 am »

Twiddling my thumbs on the sidelines? I'd respond to that inane post if I knew what the hell you were saying in the first place.

You haven't made a substantive post for a looooong time. You've been doing just what I said...making little comments on others' posts that have been mostly immaterial. You keep saying you have suspicions, you've said they won't amount to much...does that mean you are going to do nothing the rest of the day? Are you waiting to be convinced? Are you just gonna ride this one out and see what new info day 2 brings us?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #607 on: June 03, 2012, 02:19:49 am »

Dsell, O has become more and more intentionally obtuse. I've been searching for different roles that might benefit a no-lynch situation, but I can't find anything.

He says there is no case against Robz, but also that he would have done everything he could to make sure J didn't get lynched. Those are the only two likely to get lynched by tomorrow. But if he felt there was someone else TO make a case for, you would think he would do so. Maybe he's oblivious to the fact that the deadline is tomorrow, but I doubt it.

He says he doesn't know what else he can do to get us to vote for him (after he drained to 0 posts). Could he be a Jester? I don't buy it.

I have no clue what his angle is (well, I do. Obtuse.), but I've got other people to watch right now. If he is going to intentionally be confusing, and not try to help, he's not worth my time right now. Unless I can find a role that he could be to explain his actions (and often lack thereof).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #608 on: June 03, 2012, 02:22:04 am »

I made just about every other post for a large part of this thread, mostly constructive. I'm sorry I can't keep up that posting rate, which still far exceeds yours  ;).

My suspicions ATM have little backing outside of small tells I've picked up, so 1) they're really not very accurate, which is what I've said about ALL D1 suspicions and 2) It would appear like a random, baseless accusation to you all.

I find it ridiculous that you think I've just stood on the sidelines in this thread, I think you're just trying to provoke me. Good try.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #609 on: June 03, 2012, 02:23:59 am »


I have no clue what his angle is (well, I do. Obtuse.), but I've got other people to watch right now. If he is going to intentionally be confusing, and not try to help, he's not worth my time right now. Unless I can find a role that he could be to explain his actions (and often lack thereof).

When *would* I be worth your time if my only goal was to be intentionally confusing? I'm trying to help by steering the townies away from both Robz and J, both of which are probably not mafia.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #610 on: June 03, 2012, 02:26:20 am »

He could be a lyncher:

 http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lyncher

Perhaps his lynchee isn't a suspect right now, and the more people left in the game, the less likely he is to be night killed. By not making a case against his target, he can wait until a more opportune time to lynch them for the win.

But that's an outside chance at best.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #611 on: June 03, 2012, 02:28:49 am »

Checking in after mage knight failed... that game is LONG with 4 players.

Galzria's defense of RobZ is making me nervous, I know that some of us are n00bs, but frankly the "We're the experienced players and we're so good - so unvote before you have both of us killed" is slightly insulting.

Jotheonah IS Mafia. Volt PROBABLY is Mafia. Robz IS town.

I don't see how any truly town player could make such a confident statement - for sure we don't have anything firm to support an explicit statement of fact.

That said, If Rob + Galzria are mafia - coming to Robz's defense so early in the game seems like a risky play, especially if Robz is confirmed to be Mafia (either by lynching - or power role overnight investigation)

Doesn't seem like overnight lynching is a risk, since Rob seems to have survived the 5 vote - so I"m going to let my vote stand and head off to sleep.  Interesting reading - and I look forward to more in depth perusal tomorrow in advance of the deadline.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #612 on: June 03, 2012, 02:30:04 am »

You're being helpful by trying to get two people you think are likely not Mafia killed.

That would be great and all, if you were also making a case for who IS Mafia, instead of being content to sit back and watch the deadline roll by tomorrow.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #613 on: June 03, 2012, 02:31:27 am »

Sorry, the above was directed at O.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
« Reply #614 on: June 03, 2012, 02:31:47 am »

To clarify I am indeed waiting for pops to review. And I will say there is no insane cop nor suicide bomber in my proposed set ups. I didn't feel like making people hate the mod :P

No weird, insane roles in this game.

Thanks guise.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #615 on: June 03, 2012, 02:31:59 am »

I find it ridiculous that you think I've just stood on the sidelines in this thread, I think you're just trying to provoke me. Good try.

You were more active earlier on, and you still have had a lot of posts, but it's been little things that have not added up to much. I'm not trying to provoke you, except to action. If you're just not gonna go there, that's your prerogative, but it's not helpful to the town.

But yeah, you're right Galz, I'm not gonna try to get O to do anything if it's just a waste of my time.

+1 for obtuse. ;D
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #616 on: June 03, 2012, 02:36:52 am »

Captain_Frisk nicely put into words some of what I was thinking. Thanks.

Ugh. I guess this is the frustrating part of the game. We are just playing a waiting game to perhaps hear more defenses, to hear jotheonah's roleclaim (not happy about making us wait), and for others who have not made a vote or changed their vote in a while to catch up and weigh in. Is def in the house? Man it's been forever since he posted anything.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #617 on: June 03, 2012, 02:40:34 am »

Robz->Low suspicion due to bandwagon
Galzria-> medium suspicion, buts makes stupidly authoritative statements (see Captain Frisk's above post)
O-No suspicion
def-Unknown
Dsell-Medium suspicion, tends to bandwagon
Morgrim7-medium suspicion
Eevee-high suspicion, bandwagons, makes incoherent arguments
michaeljb-Unknown
jotheonah-was medium suspicion, bandwagon made me less supicious
Voltgloss-pretty high suspicion due to inane arguments
eHalcyon-Medium suspicion
Yuma-Unknown

Captain_Frisk... Either he's a damn insightful townie with tendencies to agree with me and clear, coolheaded play or he's been trying to recruit me as an ally. Currently the most suspicious person to me who has flown under the radar.

is Captain Frisk Mafia? I'm certainly not as cocksure as Galzria to say he's "definitely" mafia. It's less then a 50% chance IMO that he is. But if he IS mafia... I'm scared for the town. Because I can't see anyone crazy enough but me to really be suspicious of him.



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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #618 on: June 03, 2012, 02:42:53 am »


Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« on: May 23, 2012, 04:12:04 pm »
Quote+2   
THERE WILL BE A DISCUSSION THREAD FOR THIS MAFIA. IF YOU DO NOT WANT OTHERS DISCUSSING THIS MAFIA DO NOT PARTICIPATE. YOU MAY NOT POST IN THIS THREAD WHEN DEAD WE ASK THAT YOU DO NOT READ THIS THREAD WHILE ALIVE THOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE ENFORCED

ALIVE
Robz
Galzria
O
def
Dsell
Morgrim7
Eevee
michaeljb
Captain_Frisk
jotheonah
Voltgloss
eHalcyon
yuma


People who I'd be glad to have on the Townie side:
Captain Frisk
Robz
michaeljb
Morgrim
Michaeljb

People who I think are close to actively harmful if they were town:
Dsell
Galzria
The 3 townies from the end of Mafia II.


The rest I don't have too much of an opinion on
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #619 on: June 03, 2012, 02:55:38 am »

C.F., with all due respect, can you please point me to where I indicated "Robz and I are so good, we're better people to have around"?

I have drawn from my experience and knowledge of being Mafia once, yes. But in no way to belittle the thoughts, feelings, and arguments of others here. I have constantly encouraged out newer players to speak up, and not be intimidated to join in.

I did ask to unvote, because if I'm right, and onto the mafia's trail, then there is a good chance that a Robz lynch results in my death at night.

I am personally rather offended that you would accuse me of belittling anybody. I felt a member of the town was in danger, and I reacted to try and save them. I would do it for anybody here that I felt was in the same situation. I absolutely will not apologize for suggesting that my experiences help me in my determinations.

I was Mafia in M-II. And I will use that in any way I can to find the mafia here. If you don't like my case or argument, that's your prerogative. But I never suggested that I am more valuable, or Robz is, or anybody is, based on experience.

There is only one reason I'm more valuable alive to you than dead: I'm town. I believe Robz is as well. That's 2 votes that help town win. That's 1/5th of our number right now, and I find that damn well worth protecting.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #620 on: June 03, 2012, 02:56:17 am »

O, thanks for posting. Really. I don't really agree with a lot of your conclusions but huh. Something to think about. Did you accidentally type out Michaeljb twice on the "glad if their townie" column or would you be really really happy if he was town?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #621 on: June 03, 2012, 02:57:31 am »

oops, yes.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #622 on: June 03, 2012, 03:00:24 am »

Okay, I have a couple things to address. First, Jotheonah:

Ok, well I need to go to bed. I'll be on tomorrow morning and if people want me to full claim I'll do it in the morning. In any event, please afford me the courtesy of staying Vote #7 and allowing me my last words.

Or, alternately, just unvote and don't make this horrible town mistake.

Okay, I want you to full claim. I think it's necessary at this point. In fact, I wish you had simply done it then, because this way it gives the appearance that you are taking the time to think up a suitable cover role. I'm not saying I won't believe you--indeed, I probably will believe you--but this looks much worse to me.

Oh, and we really shouldn't kill Jo, unless his claim is ridiculous or he is counterclaimed. But we shouldn't kill me either!

On to Volt:

The "rebuttal" I'm waiting for is what's alluded to here:

Can you see me doing it because the players who are attacking you are making a convincing argument whereas you are not? Cause that's what's happening...

I hate to leave it like this, I really do, but I have a ticket for a Jonathan Coulton concert and I gotta head out. Back on much later tonight.

Their argument is terrible. Luckily, it will be disproved quite soon.

I assume something further is coming to disprove the arguments against Robz.  That's what I'm hoping to see in the morning.

Unfortunately, all I meant by that was this: I assumed I was going to be killed, and that would disprove the "Robz is mafia" argument. Once I die, you will all see that I am town. But since that's not the explanation you wanted, I'll try to defend myself again anyway.

(I like that you post relevant youtube scenes. If I could, the scene that reminds me most of how you ask me for answers happened on the most recent "Game of Thrones" episode. Lady Sansa asks Joffrey if he will be leading the vanguard in the battle. Joffrey looks around nervously and replies that he is not going to consult battle plans with stupid girls. Sansa replies, "Oh, forgive me, I AM stupid. Of course, you will lead the vanguard, how stupid to even ask!" That's you and me in this game, Volt.)

Grah, forgot something.

Robz, you said that you've been playing "sloppy" if you were Mafia, and asked me if you play sloppy.  The implication, of course, being that because you're playing sloppy, you can't be Mafia.

The problem is that you yourself said you change the way you play with every game. 

You just got done playing a game as Mafia where you were far from sloppy.  Now, you're in a new game.  You're supposedly being "sloppy."  But you change the way you play every game.  So how does that acquit you?  If you were really Mafia again in this game, I think the last thing you would do is play just like you played in M-II.

I'm not saying "you must be Mafia because you're playing differently than M-II."  I'm saying that I don't find comparing your behavior in this game to your behavior in M-II is really all that compelling one way or another.  (I know this is a centerpiece of Dsell's argument.  You'll notice I didn't cite it.  That's because I don't find it compelling.)

Okay, I'll try to defend myself again. First about changing how I play--I don't think I revolutionize how I play every game. And we can't totally control our behavior. In Mafia II, I really tried to control every possible impulse to say things. I think a careful obsverer of I and III will note that I've been faster and looser. But whatever, these comparisons don't help so much. Why I am innocent? Because the case made against me is weak.

Dsell indicated that he was suspicious of me early on, before I had said much of anything. He found my lack of posting disturbing. I've explained numerous times why I didn't post so much, but here it is again 1)There were a lot of other games 2)We had new people and I wanted to let them take the reigns. So I ignored Dsell at first, posting and ignoring him. Well, he brought it up again. So I fired back at him a bit, not really satisfying his question, to see what he would do. I didn't dream that this would turn him to campagin against me, nor that it would convince others I was suspicious. I was certainly too convinced of my invincibility in the first round of this game. I was making every effort to needle and gather suspicions, and refusing to discuss myself much. I didn't bother to explain myself, and this has come back to be a problem.

However, I can't help get the feeling that Dsell was after me the whole time, no matter what I say. Yes, I've heard his explanations for how this turned from slight suspicion to near certainty, but it doesn't make sense to me. It wouldn't, I suppose, since I know am a member of the town. He's either a very mislead member of the town, or a member of the mafia.

Look, I'm sure I don't have satisfactory responses to all questions about what I did this round. I intentionally needled Eevee a bit, and that has caused me to grow suspicious of him--he is STILL downplaying his abilities, even after I called him out for it. And he's a poker player! Not a 12-year-old! He's still suspicious to me. And so are you--although you switching your vote just made things more complicated--and so is Dsell and so is Jo, and... I'm confused this round. I'll admit it. If the members of the mafia were actually Galzria, eHalycon, and Def, it actually wouldn't surprise me at all (just a random three there). Moving on:

Galzria's defense of RobZ is making me nervous, I know that some of us are n00bs, but frankly the "We're the experienced players and we're so good - so unvote before you have both of us killed" is slightly insulting.

Jotheonah IS Mafia. Volt PROBABLY is Mafia. Robz IS town.

I don't see how any truly town player could make such a confident statement - for sure we don't have anything firm to support an explicit statement of fact.

To be fair, I agree that Galzria doesn't know the meaning of the word certainty. He is way to confident about what he actually knows. I don't know at all how he is "sure" Jo is a mafia member. Now it looks like Jo might actually be a power townie, so yeah. That said, I agree with a lot of Galzria's analysis. Just not always his confidence.

So, if Jo is a power townie... anybody want to hop on the Eevee bandwagon? It's not too late... all are welcome...
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #623 on: June 03, 2012, 03:04:35 am »

So we're settling on an Eevee bandwagon Robz? Because even though my random number generator gets knocked down, as a townie the ideal situation is that you select a person and get everyone to bandwagon on them (that minimizes the mafia influence on the voting)

As I'm relatively confident of your town status, I'd be welcome to share that bandwagon campaign with you  ;D
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #624 on: June 03, 2012, 03:11:33 am »

So we're settling on an Eevee bandwagon Robz? Because even though my random number generator gets knocked down, as a townie the ideal situation is that you select a person and get everyone to bandwagon on them (that minimizes the mafia influence on the voting)

As I'm relatively confident of your town status, I'd be welcome to share that bandwagon campaign with you  ;D

Glad to have you aboard! Although I see you are already aboard. I'm not sure you understand how this works. If you could kindly unvote for Eevee, please. I demand it. And then revote, for Eevee. And perhaps other will catch on to the idea and join you. All are welcome.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #625 on: June 03, 2012, 03:16:51 am »

By the way, I use "certain" because I either believe something, or I don't. I don't hedge. Can I be convinced I'm wrong? Sure. I listen, and will agree/disagree as I see fit.

Yes, if I'm willing to change my mind I'm not "certain". But until I change it, I will defend the things I believe, and not sit there going "well, maaaybe". That's just the way I am, and almost certainly not likely to change.
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Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #626 on: June 03, 2012, 03:23:16 am »

Eevee being a professional poker player does seem a little odd to me. Like I feel like he could be just playing us really hard. Buuuut I'm still not really convinced. I think Robz is making him seem a little more green than he has actually been acting. To me, he seems new, a little overwhelmed, and a fun, lighthearted guy. We can't all be intense. I kinda feel some of the same things I think he is, especially with this deadline looming. I really don't think he is acting like a 12 year old though.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #627 on: June 03, 2012, 03:30:33 am »

Me: "Pineapple tastes good."

Dsell: "You know, I see what Robz is saying, but I don't think he's being entirely fair to Pineapple. This is just like what he said about Pineapple in that other game. Remember, when he was mafia? Now he claims to like Pineapple but he was very quiet on the subject initially, and everything he has done has only made me more convinced he doesn't actually like Pineapple."
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #628 on: June 03, 2012, 03:34:51 am »

Galzria: "Pineapple is CERTAINLY good." Posts 1,000 more times about Pineapple

Voltgloss: "Robz, could you submit a research paper on your thoughts about Pineapple? I'm waiting. Thank you."
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #629 on: June 03, 2012, 03:38:08 am »

Well, UNVOTE. Lynch who you like tomorrow. I'll be gone most of the day, so likely won't be around to vote. I stand by J being Mafia, but since he's going to claim, he won't get lynched. No reason to keep my vote there.

See you all (or not, as there is good reason for Mafia to kill me) day 2. But I may change how I play to be more like def. I've got more fun things to do than get worked up over a Mafia game. So I'll give my thoughts here and there, but that's it. I'll vote when you're actually targeting a likely Mafia, otherwise probably not.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #630 on: June 03, 2012, 03:43:18 am »

Me: "Pineapple tastes good."

Dsell: "You know, I see what Robz is saying, but I don't think he's being entirely fair to Pineapple. This is just like what he said about Pineapple in that other game. Remember, when he was mafia? Now he claims to like Pineapple but he was very quiet on the subject initially, and everything he has done has only made me more convinced he doesn't actually like Pineapple."

I lol'd. ;D Hey man. I'm just a townie over here trying to help out the town. I think you're mafia, and hey that's ok! Not like we chose our own roles. I'm using the pertinent info available to make the best decision I can.

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #631 on: June 03, 2012, 03:47:37 am »

Personally, I'm surprised I haven't been getting flack for this.

I'm pretty interested in this, I've been enjoying following the other mafia games (well, just one of them now) though I've never played forum mafia before. The thing is, I spend a lot of time on the forum and it's been tough at times for me to even keep up with all the reading during really active times. So I can only imagine trying to keep up with other mafia games, my own mafia game, trying to formulate responses with lots of analysis, keeping up with, you know, Dominion strategy, and trying to play on isotropic. Oh yeah, and real life.

But I think I'm up for a challenge. :D

And yeah, Robz is insane.

Clearly I had already picked out my target. ::)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #632 on: June 03, 2012, 04:09:50 am »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Robz888 (4) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee, jotheonah
jotheonah (3) - yuma, michaeljb, Morgrim7
Eevee (2) - O, Robz

Not Voting (4) - def, eHalcyon, Voltgloss, Galzria,

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #633 on: June 03, 2012, 04:12:57 am »

Back.  Lots of activity today yesterday, wow.

People who I'd be glad to have on the Townie side:
Captain Frisk
Robz
michaeljb
Morgrim
Michaeljb

So, this leaves me a little confused.  I understand Robz and Captain Frisk, for the most part.  But what of the other two?  In your "suspicions" post you list Morgrim as medium suspicion and michaeljb as "unknown".  What makes them valuable as townies, if they are such?

Why is michaeljb in your good graces?  He hasn't been very memorable to me so far (I should go back and re-read some of these pages).  And (no offense meant to him here) Morgrim on there is especially confusing, what with the randomness fiasco early on (though you pulled a similar stunt, so...).  Is it how he managed to escape that bandwagon that impresses you?

I'd really like some reasons on these choices for "good townies".  For those you think would be harmful as townies, I think you explained the reasoning in an earlier post.  Please correct me if I'm wrong:

Dsell -- tendency to bandwagon?
Galzria -- makes statements with certainty when it is unlikely for him to have any certainty in this game (I have a post on this to follow); fairly persuasive in his posts but perhaps doesn't have the best judgement to utilize that influence.
Three townies from Mafia II -- well, they lost in the end.  Do note -- this is really just jotheonah and Voltglass, because Insomniac is the mod here, right?

Note: this is just my interpretation of O's rationale.



I'd also be interested in who you think would be the most dangerous Mafia, but that's probably harder to pinpoint.  Mafia can be dangerous by being very vocal and influencing day actions, but they can also be dangerous if they look innocent and go undetected.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #634 on: June 03, 2012, 04:42:27 am »

Ok I stayed up extra late waiting for eHalcyon's "to follow" post, but I'm turning in for the night. Back to check in in the morning and then I will participate in the afternoon.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #635 on: June 03, 2012, 04:47:12 am »

So, two points of interest from the earlier discussion (sorry for taking longer on this, Dsell).

Galzria's Certainty

Galzria was saying that he's certain Robz is a Townie.  He later says that it's because he doesn't hedge, but even then how can he be certain?  Given how sly he was in Mafia II, I can't imagine that he would exaggerate a day 1 town read on Robz as certainty.

These are the explanations I can come up with right now:

1. Galzria and Robz are both masons (or some similar role).  If this is the case, I don't see a reason why they shouldn't role claim, but I'm a newb. 

2. Galzria is Mafia and Robz is townie.  If Robz gets lynched, Galzria appears to be cleared.  Why would a Mafia member argue so vehemently against the lynching of a townie?  Well, it's a huge bonus if it means that Mafia member will be free of suspicion for the rest of the game.

3. Galzria and Robz are both Mafia.  If Robz doesn't get lynch, that's a win.  If Robz gets lynched, Galzria can argue that as a Mafia member there is no way that he would tie himself so closely to another Mafia member, and -- oops sorry -- that he just made a really bad read on Robz.

4. Galzria has some exotic role like a Cop that can act during the day.  That's a real role, right?




jotheonah's role

j basically says that he has a role and that he may role claim in the morning.  Even announcing that you have a role is unfortunate because it basically paints a big bullseye on your back for the Mafia.  I don't know if actually revealing the role would have any effect other than opening up the possibility of a counterclaim. 

And actually, I think this is a good reason for him to claim a specific role.  Is there any reason why someone with a role should reveal that fact without the actual role?  They're a Mafia target either way.  I can actually think of just ONE reason.  In that (unlikely!) case I think it is better for the town if I keep quiet on this one.

Nonetheless, I can see why j would do it.  He has little choice as he's about to die.  His role claim gives us insight based on how the players react.  Even if he's destined to be killed at night, sparing him from the lynch would give the town a better chance of catching scum.

But anyway, my question here is -- why would j claim a power role without specifying what that role is?  My ideas:

1. If there is a doctor in the game, he could be protected and given at least one night's chance to use his power effectively.  In that case, the Mafia has better chance of success if they pick a different target.  This only works if j's role is unknown.  On the other hand, if he claims Doctor, the Mafia can target him without much worry of being blocked.  Keeping his role secret is thus beneficial by giving the Mafia a more difficult decision to make.

2. I mentioned this above -- he might have a role that is best kept secret... I have one in mind but, since it is best kept secret, I won't reveal it here.

3. As suggested by Robz, this could be a last-ditch effort by a Mafia player.  j doesn't claim an actual role so he can have more time to figure out what is most beneficial to claim.  If the town acquits him without forcing him to claim an actual role, it might persuade an actual doctor or jailkeepr to protect him that night instead of an actual townie.  It might also cause an actual cop to investigate someone else on the assumption that he is town.





Can anyone add to either of these two lists?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #636 on: June 03, 2012, 08:23:25 am »

I haven't played much mafia, but I thought the standard procedure was to make a soft claim first and only hard claim if asked. I've painted a target on my back either way.

But, if I claim and someone counterclaims, we've both painted targets on our backs

And as you said, certain roles still benefit from anonymity. And it might be that night 2, if I can survive it (hint hint), will provide me with evidence to prove what I say tomorrow.

So, I wanted to give you the option of protecting your power townie without completely exposing him.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #637 on: June 03, 2012, 08:32:37 am »

Ok, just realized the counterclaim thing doesn't make sense.  It's this blind setup. It's unlikely, but not impossible, that there are two of my role. So a counterclaim could end up with a big town v. town fight and two mafia targets.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #638 on: June 03, 2012, 08:40:34 am »

C.F., with all due respect, can you please point me to where I indicated "Robz and I are so good, we're better people to have around"?

Not a problem - and the respect is appreciated!

Basically town, V and J are trying RIGHT NOW to slam the door on Robz, and if successful, you will have NEITHER of us day 2.

This is the quote that sent me over the edge.  You didn't explicitly justify it with a note of being experienced players - but I read this as trying to bully the town into either unvoting for Rob  you're coming to Robz's defense with threatening that you will be night killed if RobZ is lynched.  Naturally - if we do lynch town (which I suppose is the probable event), it is also likely that another town will be night killed - so we will lose 2 towns.  You're implying that the town is worse off if both of you are killed vs. some other pair of 2 towns. 

At this point - I am highly suspicious of you - and thus by extension making me feel better about leaving my vote on RobZ.

Finally - your rage-unvote

Well, UNVOTE. Lynch who you like tomorrow. I'll be gone most of the day, so likely won't be around to vote. I stand by J being Mafia, but since he's going to claim, he won't get lynched. No reason to keep my vote there.

See you all (or not, as there is good reason for Mafia to kill me) day 2. But I may change how I play to be more like def. I've got more fun things to do than get worked up over a Mafia game. So I'll give my thoughts here and there, but that's it. I'll vote when you're actually targeting a likely Mafia, otherwise probably not.

If you believe that J is mafia, WHY ON EARTH would you unvote?  J was up to 4 votes, and unvoting only allows him to possibly unclaim because it is no longer necessary to save his bacon.  If you were shifting your vote to someone else who you believe is Mafia because you think J can't be lynched... then OK.  But with a strong believe that J is mafia, unvoting seems strictly worse - and equivalent to:

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #639 on: June 03, 2012, 08:43:53 am »

Part of my post above didn't post, so I'll say it again. Only Robz has asked me to full claim, and given that he could well be mafia, I don't think it's ridiculous to wait for at least one more townie to make the request.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #640 on: June 03, 2012, 08:54:30 am »

I haven't played much mafia, but I thought the standard procedure was to make a soft claim first and only hard claim if asked. I've painted a target on my back either way.

But, if I claim and someone counterclaims, we've both painted targets on our backs

And as you said, certain roles still benefit from anonymity. And it might be that night 2, if I can survive it (hint hint), will provide me with evidence to prove what I say tomorrow.

So, I wanted to give you the option of protecting your power townie without completely exposing him.

And here we go Galzria - backing off the role claim because you unvoted.  I'm suspicious of both camps - I was suspicious of jotheonah - to the point of even voting for him earlier in post #332 - although look at who else i was suspicious of then?

If I had to vote, it would be for either jotheonah or Galzria - as I assume any time we start hammering someone, the mafia is going to want to have a mix of guys in... some early, some late - as someone pointed out, it would be pretty bad for the votes to be 5,6,7.  I've already un-voted Morgrim, so that leaves jotheonah and Galzria.

That said, I'm having a tough time buying a Mafia Triangle of RobZ, Galzria + Jotheonah.

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #641 on: June 03, 2012, 08:55:54 am »

Part of my post above didn't post, so I'll say it again. Only Robz has asked me to full claim, and given that he could well be mafia, I don't think it's ridiculous to wait for at least one more townie to make the request.

Jotheonah - please do not take my above post as a request to claim.  I was only using it to point out why I don't understand G's behavior.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #642 on: June 03, 2012, 09:26:42 am »

Insomniac, can we try to kerjigger it so the deadline is not on a Sunday/weekend next time? It seems to be less than ideal.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #643 on: June 03, 2012, 09:59:47 am »

My head is spinning.  Am I getting this sequence of events right?

- Galzria leads a charge against jotheonah.
- When jotheonah votes for the other then-possible lynch (Robz), Galzria tears into him and the person who most recently voted for that same lynch (me).
- Then I explain my gambit and switch my vote to jotheonah based on his jumping on the Robz train.
- Then jotheonah claims he is going to claim.
- Then Galzria unvotes, backing down from the charge he's been leading for most of the day - BEFORE jotheonah has actually claimed.
- Now jotheonah isn't claiming.

Does anyone else find this troubling?  I don't even know what to do about it at this point.  I mean, I could revote jotheonah, but if he gets lynched and flips town then all of us who voted for him are on the hook for suspicion EXCEPT for the one person who led the charge in the first place!  I really don't know at this point.

O, I'd like to know how you find my arguments "inane."  Saying someone's arguments are inane without explaining why is, well, inane.  If I'm on the wrong track, tell me how, help me to get away from such inane thoughts.

Robz, I appreciate your further response.  As I understand it, you're saying that your giving insufficient responses to Dsell (which is the big thing that aroused my suspicions) is because you were purposefully trying to see what he'd do.  Well, now you know:  if you give him insufficient responses he's going to conclude you are Mafia.  Really, I can't see that as being

I'm going to have to look again at this Eevee thing.  The gist of Robz's suspicion seems to be that Eevee mixes humor, substance, and non-substance in a "mafia middle-ground" way (a concept Robz created), and that Eevee is downplaying his abilities.  The problem I have is that this seems to be suspicion based solely on a person's RL posting style, rather than anything concrete that would point to them being Mafia.  It feels like the Morgrim attack that Robz guided in M-II.  (I'm not saying Robz is Mafia because he's targeting Eevee.  I'm saying Robz's attack on Eevee, if Robz is Town, feels like my attack on Morgrim in M-II.)
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #644 on: June 03, 2012, 10:01:17 am »

Left a sentence dangling in my next-to-last paragraph above.  Fixed below.

"Well, now you know:  if you give him insufficient responses he's going to conclude you are Mafia.  Really, I can't see that as being a cause for suspicion.  Aren't we supposed to be looking for people whose posts are 'off' and accusing them to see what they do?  Your posts were off, you were accused, your (initial) responses were off.  Dsell's just doing his job as a good Townie."
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #645 on: June 03, 2012, 10:26:51 am »

So you're not going to reply to my question about why YOU jumping on the Robz train is town and MY jumping on the Robz train is scum? Cause I don't follow.

And I daresay my role will be public knowledge by Day 2 at the latest. I think town could obtain an advantage by delaying the reveal until then. But I leave it up to you all.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #646 on: June 03, 2012, 10:36:32 am »

So you're not going to reply to my question about why YOU jumping on the Robz train is town and MY jumping on the Robz train is scum? Cause I don't follow.

Because moving the train to vote 4 is less dangerous than moving it to vote 5.  Also, I explained in detail my reasons for voting Robz.  You didn't.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #647 on: June 03, 2012, 10:48:36 am »

In a game with 3 mafia, I think you're greatly overstating the difference between vote 4 and vote 5. And both votes (as well as #6 and #7) are required for the town to lynch someone.

Prior to your vote, I had been called out for an unhelpful vote. I had announced my intention to join an existing bandwagon to be helpful to the town. I had asked clarifying questions to get a better read on the currently existing Eevee bandwagon. After hearing those responses, and after seeing you, a trustworthy townie in my book ATM, agreed with the analysis on Robz, I felt I had sufficient cause for a vote.

Quote
Robz, I think you're grasping at straws.  The mafia don't need to lynch anyone today. They can live with a no-lynch. You're saying they're placing the first 3 votes on you? You are following your established scum pattern of always accusing your accusers. And I'm not buying it.

Unvote

Vote: Robz888

I'm voting precisely because I don't believe all of Robz's accusers to be mafia, and I'm finding their case against him much more compelling then either G's case against me or Robz's case against Eevee.

Yes, I chose not to compose a third essay rehashing the points you and Dsell had already made. Instead, I highlighted a few of my specific tells and articulated that Robz struck me as the best option for a town lynch (i.e. the most likely mafia).  I don't see what's suspicious in this outside the context of you ALREADY being suspicious of me and looking for a reason to confirm it.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #648 on: June 03, 2012, 10:59:39 am »

Sorry V. Didn't mean to confuse. If it'll make you feel better, VOTE: JOTHEONAH. I only unvoted because, well, you did, and because the case has been made in this game and many others that a claim doesn't get lynched. There didn't seem to be a good reason to keep it there. I still believe my case though.

@C.F.:

I really don't care if people (you, O, anyone else) are suspicious of me. If I'm not having fun (ie. feeling accused of something I would never do, in real life or on a forum), then I will disengage. I will still participate - I won't leave my team without my support, but I'll join in only when I have something to say.

The quote you used was hardly meant as bullying. I understand noone wants to die day/night 1. Well, that extends to me too. I generally WANT to play, and felt (still do) if Robz were lynched, then revealed town, I would be the most likely night target. Since I would rather that not happen, I felt the need to protect Robz.

I hope you can see that it wasn't meant to be insulting.

As for my unvote, my actions were explained above.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #649 on: June 03, 2012, 11:06:19 am »

Thank you, Galzria.

jotheonah, on top of my previous reasons, the promised roleclaim hasn't materialized.  Instead, you've delayed more (which Robz already flagged as suspicious the first time you delayed).  You've had a chance to give your say, and I simply don't find it a compelling response.

VOTE: jotheonah
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #650 on: June 03, 2012, 11:15:22 am »

And I daresay my role will be public knowledge by Day 2 at the latest. I think town could obtain an advantage by delaying the reveal until then. But I leave it up to you all.

I can't imagine a role where this is true, unless you mean that you will make a full claim on day 2.  I mentioned that I could think of a role best kept secret, but if that's the case then there is a decent chance it won't be made known.

The other way your role could be revealed is if you are killed.  However, that could be prevented if we have a doctor or jailkeeper.

Whatever results we see from power roles (e.g. second death = vigilante/serial killer, no deaths = doctor/jailkeeper probably) don't tell us YOUR role because you might just be taking credit for someone else's work.  And besides that, even if you have a power, you might not get to use it if our jailkeeper jails you, or if the mafia has a roleblocker and targets you.

You make a good point that perhaps the town has more than one of a role.  I still find this really unlikely -- Insomniac, is this something you can clarify about the setup?  I find it unlikely that there are multiples.  What roles are there multiples of in standard games?  Mafia of course.  Masons.  Not sure about others.

So are you really implying that your role is best kept secret, but it will be helpful to the town and made known tomorrow?  And are you hoping that the other town role(s), if there are any, will protect you?  Does that only apply if we have a doctor, or would you mind being jailed?  Assuming you are being honest, what kind of action are you hoping for from the town?

I am very tempted to vote for you (and it looks like with Galzria and Voltgloss ve are now at 6?) but I would like to hear your answer to these questions.

To that end I request that any townies refrain from casting the final vote right now.

I won't be back until the afternoon so I hope people wait, though I understand if they don't.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #651 on: June 03, 2012, 11:21:55 am »

I am very tempted to vote for you (and it looks like with Galzria and Voltgloss ve are now at 6?)

I think we're at 5.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #652 on: June 03, 2012, 11:31:39 am »

eHalcyon: I will not clarify that as it is a closed setup

Jotheonah: if no one disagrees and there is posts here suggesting people would want it I will make the day 2 deadline 8 days.

All: would you mind having an 8 day, day 2?
« Last Edit: June 03, 2012, 11:33:47 am by Insomniac »
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #653 on: June 03, 2012, 11:38:45 am »

Insomniac, I don't mind.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #654 on: June 03, 2012, 12:25:40 pm »

Thirty minutes.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #655 on: June 03, 2012, 12:31:27 pm »

Current Vote Counts
Robz888 (4) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee, jotheonah
jotheonah (5) - yuma, michaeljb, Morgrim7, Galzria, Voltgloss
Eevee (2) - O, Robz888

Not Voting (2) - def, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #656 on: June 03, 2012, 12:35:22 pm »

Thirty minutes.

You mean over twelve hours.  Deadline is midnight, PDT.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #657 on: June 03, 2012, 12:39:25 pm »

Thirty minutes.

You mean over twelve hours.  Deadline is midnight, PDT.
Right. Oops! Thought tht said a.m., not p.m. :)
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Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #658 on: June 03, 2012, 12:41:37 pm »

The time is 9:41am PDT meaning at the time of posting there are 13 hours 18 minutes
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #659 on: June 03, 2012, 01:03:51 pm »

Jo: Need that roleclaim, buddy. I know it sucks having to claim round 1, but that's the way the game is played. And I really wish you hadn't delayed like this, because it's going to make it very hard to believe you, with only a little time left.

To Volt:

I'm going to have to look again at this Eevee thing.  The gist of Robz's suspicion seems to be that Eevee mixes humor, substance, and non-substance in a "mafia middle-ground" way (a concept Robz created), and that Eevee is downplaying his abilities.  The problem I have is that this seems to be suspicion based solely on a person's RL posting style, rather than anything concrete that would point to them being Mafia.  It feels like the Morgrim attack that Robz guided in M-II.  (I'm not saying Robz is Mafia because he's targeting Eevee.  I'm saying Robz's attack on Eevee, if Robz is Town, feels like my attack on Morgrim in M-II.)

Sure, but what concrete things really point to anyone being mafia at this point? This round has spread wildly out of control and I don't know what to think. Some I am trying to go back to basics. I think my "mafia middle-ground" is a decent-ish idea for how a new-ish mafia would play the game. And Eevee's constant--constant--downplaying of his own abilities has struck me as weird, because he does it a lot. But there is some serious game play mixed in there. I understand the comparison to Morgrim, but really, Morgrim was acting suspicious in MII (now we know he was just being Morgrim, and I for one have acquitted him in this game for now).

Am I certain of Eevee being mafia? Not even close. It's just a hunch and a best guess going off a little evidence, at this point.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #660 on: June 03, 2012, 01:08:58 pm »

Volt and Galz, NEITHER OF YOU ASKED ME TO FULL CLAIM. I said I would claim if asked. No one, except Robz, asked. I was just waiting for words to the effect of "Yes, you should role claim." I never got them. Still haven't.

Anyway, here goes.

I am Town Vigilante. I have 1 one-shot night kill. It seems like kind of a weak vig variant, which is why I think there could be two (like I said, unlikely, but possible).

Since I'm likely to be nightkilled by the mob, I'm offering to use my power tonight if the town can agree on a secondary target. Otherwise, you could try to keep me alive long enough to use it for some useful purpose tomorrow night, when we have more info.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #661 on: June 03, 2012, 01:11:01 pm »

Volt and Galz, NEITHER OF YOU ASKED ME TO FULL CLAIM. I said I would claim if asked. No one, except Robz, asked. I was just waiting for words to the effect of "Yes, you should role claim." I never got them. Still haven't.

Anyway, here goes.

I am Town Vigilante. I have 1 one-shot night kill. It seems like kind of a weak vig variant, which is why I think there could be two (like I said, unlikely, but possible).

Since I'm likely to be nightkilled by the mob, I'm offering to use my power tonight if the town can agree on a secondary target. Otherwise, you could try to keep me alive long enough to use it for some useful purpose tomorrow night, when we have more info.

Great, now 3 townies will be dead by the morning of Day 2.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #662 on: June 03, 2012, 01:12:39 pm »

Well, any other Town Vigilantes out there? If there are, please say. I'm sure there aren't two of them. I suspect it's just you.

I don't have to unvote you, because I never voted for you. However I would really like to not die instead. What now, town?
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #663 on: June 03, 2012, 01:16:13 pm »

Robz, I'm willing to vote Eevee, but throwing my vote around again now would just make me look worse and make the people who suspect me think twice about joining that wagon. So I'm hesitant.

Also, you're not at all out of the woods as far as I'm concerned.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #664 on: June 03, 2012, 01:20:24 pm »

What now, town?
"Well lets just have his head and be done with it."
-Gimli, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #665 on: June 03, 2012, 01:27:23 pm »

For the record, my vote remains, and here's why:

A) J is telling the truth: As Robz points out, his likelihood of hitting Mafia is lower than hitting town, so if he lives, it's probable 3 town instead of just 2, which AT WORST, is where we would be if he died now.

B) J is lying and is Mafia. Well, it's obvious here he should die now.

C) J is a Serial Killer. He can claim his night 1 kill vindicates his role-claim to prevent day 2 lynch, then kill again. Here, he doesn't even care who he hits, and it's better for us if he dies now.

So I can't see much reason to unvote.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #666 on: June 03, 2012, 01:43:45 pm »

Alright then, I won't use my shot tonight if it won't hurt the town. But at this point, the mafia will certainly kill me in the night, so it's a waste of the town's lynch. If I live through the night, you can kill me tomorrow.

As for your option C, I really can't imagine the SK doing that. It sounds brilliant in theory but there are all kinds of potential problems. SK kills and Vig kills probably have different flavor for one thing. And it would become pretty obvious what he was doing pretty quick. The SK needs to play a long game to win, and that gambit would buy someone two rounds at mose.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #667 on: June 03, 2012, 01:44:17 pm »

*if it WILL hurt the town.

Not a Freudian slip.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #668 on: June 03, 2012, 02:46:07 pm »

Lets see... J roleclaimed, and we have NO votes switching?


Yea, we definitely have no mafia voting for him right now, none at all...
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #669 on: June 03, 2012, 02:55:03 pm »

Or, I guess, nobody's online? It's been real dead today.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #670 on: June 03, 2012, 02:57:24 pm »

Lets see... J roleclaimed, and we have NO votes switching?


Yea, we definitely have no mafia voting for him right now, none at all...

Well, I think Yuma and Morgrim aren't around right now. Didn't they say the wouldn't around? Don't know about Michaeljb. Galzria gave his reasons. Volt... might not have seen yet, either.

But yeah, it's a little surprising. Truly, given that we believe him--and pretty much, I do--we really shouldn't kill him.

Uh, no lynch by virtue of no one having 7 votes? It's better than killing Jo if he's a power townie (or me, as I am innocent!). And we actually have gathered a lot of information this round (though what to make of it I have no idea). Maybe our Cop(s) will help us out tonight.

My vote is still on Eevee, though, for reasons I've outlined.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #671 on: June 03, 2012, 02:58:45 pm »

If we have protective roles, we're actually not too much worse off than we were before the roleclaim. If we don't... well, the Mafia II playgroup has come to make the Mafia win again. (minus Robz)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #672 on: June 03, 2012, 03:03:07 pm »

jotheonah... As you can see, your primary defense is me and Robz. Robz is not going to hammer himself, and I am not going to hammer Robz. '


It might be just a teensy bit advisable if you switched your vote from Robz to Eevee, if you wished to survive.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #673 on: June 03, 2012, 03:05:29 pm »

I'm doing a lot more for town than you have O, so /shrug - whatever you say.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #674 on: June 03, 2012, 03:05:59 pm »

You're lynching a roleclaim...
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #675 on: June 03, 2012, 03:07:55 pm »

I'm lynching a Mafia, and I've given my reasons.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #676 on: June 03, 2012, 03:09:54 pm »

Unvote
Vote: Eevee

Not crazy about it, but the people who still think I'm scum will still think I'm scum, and the people who don't probably won't switch because of this. 

Who could make up four more for Eevee? def? eHalycon?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #677 on: June 03, 2012, 03:11:57 pm »

I don't hold that switch against you J. Irs the right move, town or Mafia.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #678 on: June 03, 2012, 03:14:17 pm »

Lets see Galz.. we have 6 voting for J, a roleclaim. Some townies are like me; they instantly back off a roleclaim D1 because WE HAVE INVESTIGATIVE ROLES 90% of the time that make keeping a role-claim alive much more logical.

So you really really think no mafia are voting for J? Lol'ed
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #679 on: June 03, 2012, 03:15:53 pm »

Galzria: I'm sorry--and I am very appreciative of how much you defended me, because you're correct about me!--but I'm getting a little worried. You have seemed so certain about Jo, certain in ways I can't possible understand. And now it looks like you're wrong there. (Or do you disagree? Do you think he's lying about his claim? I believe him, though he did himself no favors by delaying the way he did. And really, I'd probably rather he didn't kill anybody tonight, likely as he is to hit town). But you won't change your vote? I'm not accusing you or getting upset with you Galzria.

I'm just trying to understand, so that we lynch the correct person here. It seems to me like there is one certainly incorrect person--Jotheoenah, the One Shot Vigilante--so why still vote for him? Do you see my confusion? I'm not crusading against you, I'm not denouncing you, I'm just trying to understand.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #680 on: June 03, 2012, 03:16:52 pm »

"we have people voting for someone, but can't lynch unless people vote for someone, so he can't be Mafia" I lol'ed.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #681 on: June 03, 2012, 03:19:32 pm »

Robz888 (4) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee, jotheonah
jotheonah (3) - yuma, michaeljb, Morgrim7, Voltgloss, Galzria
Eevee (2) - O, Robz

Not Voting (4) - def, eHalcyon

Assume for a sec that mafia aren't voting for mafia. Not certain, but likely.

IF J is mafia (lets go before his vote-switch) 
1) Robz isn't mafia

So you're saying you believe the 3 Mafia are J, and 2 of Ehaly, Def, O, Dsell, Capt' Frisk, Eevee are mafia.

Damn certain with your constraints, are you.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #682 on: June 03, 2012, 03:20:20 pm »

oh and for the record, I am denouncing you  ;). Either as Mafia or bad townie, given your current voting and reasoning.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #683 on: June 03, 2012, 03:22:39 pm »

I'm happy with you being wrong O. Doesn't bother me.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #684 on: June 03, 2012, 03:28:32 pm »

Sigh.. it appears we have Me, Robz, J and Galz active, which means we're not going to make much headway.

Though I'd rather nolynch than lynch J, and probably nolynch over lynching robz.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #685 on: June 03, 2012, 03:32:57 pm »

Morgrim was on a minute ago. Morgrim, can we talk you into switching your vote?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #686 on: June 03, 2012, 03:40:03 pm »

hovering at 5-6 viewers... I guess we must have lurkers on.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #687 on: June 03, 2012, 03:43:07 pm »

I just caught up...One problem I have with Galz' analysis of Jo (which O brought up) is that we very likely have protective roles. If we don't lynch him, the mafia has a tough choice, because killing him could very well mean they sacrifice a night kill if he's being protected.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #688 on: June 03, 2012, 03:47:23 pm »

I really really do not want to vote jo. I could maybe be convinced to vote Eevee (professional poker player...) but that would mean hopping on the bandwagon with Robz, who I think is more likely mafia. This is tough. I will continue thinking about it but later on I will definitely vote for Eevee if it is the difference between a lynch and a no-lynch. I'm not highly suspicious of him but I'm not altogether unsuspicious either.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #689 on: June 03, 2012, 04:08:28 pm »

Pointing this out makes me feel kinda mean, buuuut Michaeljb has been online today AND gave me respect on this thread late last night/early this morning after Jo's "soft" roleclaim. So he's seen that but hasn't posted or unvoted at all...
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #690 on: June 03, 2012, 04:12:34 pm »

Also currently on; Eevee and voltglass

Neither seems likely to change their votes.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #691 on: June 03, 2012, 04:13:53 pm »

Also: Ehalycon

Yuallsoinactive?
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #692 on: June 03, 2012, 04:19:48 pm »

Also: Ehalycon

Yuallsoinactive?

I just got back -- was catching up and writing up my response to recent activity.  I have not been inactive -- I posted last night and this morning.  However, my posts appear to have been mostly ignored.

@Insomnia -- I don't mind extending the deadline.

O, no response to my post 633?  I mean, if you rather keep things to yourself, fine, but at least say so and maybe give a justification.  I don't know if you just missed my post or are avoiding my questions.  I really want to know why you consider michaeljb and morgrim to be good townies to have.

Town, no response to my posts 635 and 650?  Well, j responded to some parts.  I thought I made some salient points and asked some good questions.  If not, I'd appreciate a response telling me so, pointing out my mistakes, so that I can do better. 

As it is, it seems like a good group of you guys are caught up in your own little bubbles and at each other's throats.  Barring special roles, I don't see how you all can be posting with such conviction.  Certainly some of you seem to be absolutely convinced that others are innocent, or guilty.  Too much conviction for day 1.  Is it Mafia boldly sowing confusion?  I really wonder if there are Masons around... maybe more than one group of Masons.

I'm certainly lacking the conviction you all seem to have.  I feel very much in the dark, and my attempts in gaining some traction via questions are getting ignored.


Right now I am really suspicious of nearly everyone.  There's the vocal ones that seem to be so sure of their actions.  Then there are the ones that are remaining silent despite being around (e.g. michaeljb as Dsell points out in post 689... though I haven't verified his claim, I assume he isn't lying).

I'm actually less suspicious of j right now because he actually responded to a question I posted.

To this end I am now heavily leaning towards voting for Eevee.  I want to give j a chance.  But my vote remains free as I await responses to my questions.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #693 on: June 03, 2012, 04:25:04 pm »

Quote
So, this leaves me a little confused.  I understand Robz and Captain Frisk, for the most part.  But what of the other two?  In your "suspicions" post you list Morgrim as medium suspicion and michaeljb as "unknown".  What makes them valuable as townies, if they are such?

Why is michaeljb in your good graces?  He hasn't been very memorable to me so far (I should go back and re-read some of these pages).  And (no offense meant to him here) Morgrim on there is especially confusing, what with the randomness fiasco early on (though you pulled a similar stunt, so...).  Is it how he managed to escape that bandwagon that impresses you?

I'd really like some reasons on these choices for "good townies".  For those you think would be harmful as townies, I think you explained the reasoning in an earlier post.  Please correct me if I'm wrong:

Dsell -- tendency to bandwagon?
Galzria -- makes statements with certainty when it is unlikely for him to have any certainty in this game (I have a post on this to follow); fairly persuasive in his posts but perhaps doesn't have the best judgement to utilize that influence.
Three townies from Mafia II -- well, they lost in the end.  Do note -- this is really just jotheonah and Voltglass, because Insomniac is the mod here, right?

Note: this is just my interpretation of O's rationale.

Morgrim because he's an oddball like me and he was poorly lynched first day M2
Michaeljb.. I don't know, he seemed rational. This is probably the most whimsical choice

You're right, Insomniac is mod, so it's the 2 townies (J and Volt). J's roleclaim obviously changes circumstances a bit and I will not be voting for him.

I do think Dsell has been taking anything Galz has said as scripture, which bothers me. And Galz really, really bothers me.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #694 on: June 03, 2012, 04:27:35 pm »

I also would like to say I have no major foolproof convictions. I believe Robz is very very likely townie, but no, thats not a guarantee. I believe we shouldn't lynch J because 1) I don't lynch D1 roleclaims D1 (that's inane) and 2) I happen to believe him here, not 100% confident, but I believe him.

I think Eevee has a sliiighttly (like 10%) higher than normal chance of being mafia in my eyes. That's the best i'm going to get, so i'm driving a campaign.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #695 on: June 03, 2012, 04:30:26 pm »

I do think Dsell has been taking anything Galz has said as scripture, which bothers me. And Galz really, really bothers me.

I just caught up...One problem I have with Galz' analysis of Jo (which O brought up) is that we very likely have protective roles. If we don't lynch him, the mafia has a tough choice, because killing him could very well mean they sacrifice a night kill if he's being protected.

I JUST posted this. I definitely have not been taking what Galz has said as scripture. A lot of what he has said and done (still voting jo...) has been very suspicious to me. He has had some good reasoning too, but I still find it odd. That's why I haven't and don't plan to vote for jo. However, it doesn't look to me like there's any chance at all that he will be lynched today.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #696 on: June 03, 2012, 04:31:45 pm »

I do think Dsell has been taking anything Galz has said as scripture, which bothers me. And Galz really, really bothers me.

I just caught up...One problem I have with Galz' analysis of Jo (which O brought up) is that we very likely have protective roles. If we don't lynch him, the mafia has a tough choice, because killing him could very well mean they sacrifice a night kill if he's being protected.

I JUST posted this. I definitely have not been taking what Galz has said as scripture. A lot of what he has said and done (still voting jo...) has been very suspicious to me. He has had some good reasoning too, but I still find it odd. That's why I haven't and don't plan to vote for jo. However, it doesn't look to me like there's any chance at all that he will be lynched today.

I was explaining my stance at the time of the post.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #697 on: June 03, 2012, 04:32:50 pm »

@eHalcyon, I thought your questions were mainly to jo/about roles? I don't know much about the roles or what is considered "common," so I really don't have much to say about that. I think your reasoning seemed sound though.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #698 on: June 03, 2012, 04:41:42 pm »

I finally had a chance to catch up.  Been reviewing on phone slowly over the past two hours, reading about 5 minutes at a time when I can.  If that looks like i'm ohline continuously and saying nothing, well, I can't do anything about that.

First, UNVOTE.  I hear Galz's concerns but if J is bluffing it'll get found out upon being investigated (which I think is what O is saying?).

Second, Eevee.  I have a real concern here that is perhaps unique to me.  I got taken in by the mafia (mainly Robz) in M-II by their supporting my attack on someone (Morgrim) for his unorthodox posting and strange comments.  Now, Robz is supporting O's attack on Eevee for unorthodox posting and strange comments.  I trust the reason for my concern is clear.  Plus, I am still very suspicious of Robz, especially for accusing Eevee of using words Robz himself used.  (I really, really, REALLY have a problem with any argument that does something like that.  Either its a Mafia argument that is willfully misrepresenting the record, or it's a Town argument based on a sloppy misreading of the record.  Either way renders the argument unconvincing to me.)

Robz, what about voting for Eevee now is different from voting for Morgrim in M-II?  ("I'm not mafia this time" isn't a sufficient argument. ;)  )
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #699 on: June 03, 2012, 04:44:32 pm »

Well, just woke up. I'll try to answer to what I gathered as reasons for people wanting vote for me and answer.

a) I'm not joh or robz and I have votes. I'm afraid that people who dont want to vote for joh or robz are going to gun for me just because the I already have votes and they feel joh and robz are town. I'm going to ask not to vote for me unless you find me suspicious. We can still lynch someone like def if we want to go for a random-y lynch. I really dont like his silence.

b) "I'm a pro poker player, I got to be deceiving you". Yeah, I'm good at playing games. No, I'm not playing stupid here. I mean, no one would argue that someone has to be lying because he is level 45 in dominion. Me "downgrading my abilities": I dont know. I feel robz started this. He was saying "hmm, you are not of much use.. too middle groundish, suspicious", and I answered that I'm not trying to be in the middle ground, I just dont have enough experience to be of any more help. It's not like I'm actually being stupid, I'm just not playing like Galrzia or Robz are, not sure why that would be expected of me.

O, was your vote for me only because of my rude comment? I mean, if that's going to start a bandwagon and get me lynched, I'm going to feel pretty bad about writing it.

Joh seems to be voting for me just to save himself (understandable, whatever his role). I still wish I wont end up being the sacrificicial lamb.

Idk, why do you people think I'm not playing very well? Getting yourself lynched in the first day is pretty much the worst town play there is..
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #700 on: June 03, 2012, 04:47:10 pm »

Dont mind extending the deadline.

@eHalcyon

I 100% agree with the certainty thing, well put. I mean, maybe thats one of reasons I sound like I'm downgrading myself, but I dont understand how you all can be oh so sure? Everything looks really fuzzy to me.. the only thing I'm even close to being sure about is my own role.

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #701 on: June 03, 2012, 04:50:40 pm »

My bandwagon on you is largely because of the post containing the rude comment (though not the comment itself), I'm not going to lie. I don't hold your comment personally against you at all.

We need a pretty much random lynch, I picked you as a mostly random lynch. I'm going to keep campaigning for you as our random lynch (the whole point of a random lynch is that they're supposed to not changed. I already ruined that one by not campaigning Morgrim ATM, but its too late for that). Lynching def because he's been inactive is *not* a random lynch.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #702 on: June 03, 2012, 04:52:06 pm »

@Volt

Thanks for being better at expressing yourself in english than I am. I've been trying to state that most of Robz's accusations towards me are really not for ingame reasons (and the one's that are, I feel he is inventing out of thin air to make his case look more convincing.. stuff like constantly putting words to my mouth.) No one else finds this true / troubling?
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #703 on: June 03, 2012, 04:59:40 pm »

Thanks for the response, O.

@eHalcyon, I thought your questions were mainly to jo/about roles? I don't know much about the roles or what is considered "common," so I really don't have much to say about that. I think your reasoning seemed sound though.

The post about Galzria and jo was intended to foster discussion on their peculiar actions.  Why did jo claim a power role without revealing the role itself?  Even now that he has specified one-shot Vig, I don't see why that would have been good to keep secret.  Mafia roleblocker, maybe (a rolecop is more likely, I think)?  Though as it's been pointed out, there's probably better chance of him hitting town than scum.  I guess a mafia roleblocker could make the decision to block or not based on where his suspicions to seem to lie.

The part that still hasn't been addressed -- why is Galzria so certain of Robz?  I gave some ideas.  I'd really like Galzria to give his explanation.  He's been online but has ignored those thoughts.

I realize that in that post I didn't specifically call out Galzria to answer, but I thought he would address the points since he was under scrutiny.  Well, I'm asking now.  If other people agree that my concerns have merit, I'd like them to push him to answer.  And if I appear to be off track, please do pick my post apart.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #704 on: June 03, 2012, 05:07:36 pm »

All - I am lurking on phone while shopping at Costco. Will fully review this evening. J's role claim is not especially convincing - especially since some variants of serial killer investigate as town. Also godfather would as well I believe.  He can't really prove be is one shot vig unless he uses his power and it seems the consensus is that he shouldn't? 

Of course, I'm still sitting on robz, so I don't need to be convinced to get off of J


Seems like nobody is in danger of lynch?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #705 on: June 03, 2012, 05:09:45 pm »

i'm taking the ipad with me to the tables, hopefully i'll find a working wifi. wont be able to make long posts without the keyboard though.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #706 on: June 03, 2012, 05:20:30 pm »

Pointing this out makes me feel kinda mean, buuuut Michaeljb has been online today AND gave me respect on this thread late last night/early this morning after Jo's "soft" roleclaim. So he's seen that but hasn't posted or unvoted at all...

I was going to reread some more before I change my vote, and if I recall correctly that respect I gave you was after O's list where he mistakenly put me in twice under "it'd be good if they were town" and I thought it was funny when you asked if he would just really really like it.

This game ended up being more work than I anticipated (13 people just made it way busier than the earlier games) so I've been putting off rereading.

Ok, so Unvote, but won't vote till I review more.
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #707 on: June 03, 2012, 05:52:07 pm »

PS I have a RL hockey game this evening, I should be home no later than 7pm PDT so I'll still have a good chunk of time before the deadline. I'm thinking I'll probably hold off on revoting till then.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #708 on: June 03, 2012, 06:26:10 pm »

Current Vote Counts
Robz888 (3) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee
jotheonah (3) - yuma, Morgrim7, Galzria
Eevee (3) - O, Robz888, jotheonah

Not Voting (4) - def, eHalcyon, Voltgloss, michaeljb

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #709 on: June 03, 2012, 06:42:15 pm »

I'm on but coaching. I'll quickly say two things:

1) I'm being asked to unvote someone I believe to be Mafia, and instead vote for someone I think is town. My unwillingness to do so is being attacked and ripped into by certain people. Does anybody not see how my doing so would be terrible play?

2) The defense some people are employing about the  roleclaim is ridiculous. Again, I'm being attacked because I don't simply accept it, yet the argument from the other side has been "well, he claimed, so I believe him" - as if it isn't something the Mafia would EVER do. They've then gone on to ignore my post that listed 3 scenarios (J is telling the truth; J is Mafia; and J is SK), all of which I explained why it STILL makes sense to lynch him.

So, town, do you understand my positions now?

I also explained my "certainty". It's just who I am. I don't waffle, I don't hedge. I believe something, or I don't. And I will argue for what I believe until I am presented for an actual reason to be wrong. "Well, Jotheonah roleclaimed so he must be town" is just not good enough for me when as Mafia, he would've done the exact same thing, especially in a closed-setup game.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #710 on: June 03, 2012, 06:43:51 pm »

Well its looking very likely that we'll have a nolynch. I think I know (and it should be obvious to others) who I'm going to be campaigning to lynch D2, if we're both still alive.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #711 on: June 03, 2012, 06:47:31 pm »

Well its looking very likely that we'll have a nolynch. I think I know (and it should be obvious to others) who I'm going to be campaigning to lynch D2, if we're both still alive.

Read: I don't need to kill G at night because I'll campaign against him tomorrow.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #712 on: June 03, 2012, 06:48:35 pm »

Well its looking very likely that we'll have a nolynch. I think I know (and it should be obvious to others) who I'm going to be campaigning to lynch D2, if we're both still alive.

Read: I don't need to kill G at night because I'll campaign against him tomorrow.

If you think I'm mafia, why don't you lead a campaign against me?

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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #713 on: June 03, 2012, 06:54:23 pm »

Well its looking very likely that we'll have a nolynch. I think I know (and it should be obvious to others) who I'm going to be campaigning to lynch D2, if we're both still alive.

Read: I don't need to kill G at night because I'll campaign against him tomorrow.

If you think I'm mafia, why don't you lead a campaign against me?

The same way you're going to mislead one against me tomorrow? No need, J will still be alive so there's no need to go after Mafia #2 at the same time and split town votes.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #714 on: June 03, 2012, 06:56:12 pm »

Galzria: J and O are mafia.

Waaaaayyyyyyy too confident, its just insane.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #715 on: June 03, 2012, 06:57:59 pm »

The votes are 3-3-3. That is a pretty sucky place to be. TOWN: The mafia are not terribly likely to vote for their own today (this is not a guarantee but as a general rule...). That means that the rest of us townies need to get our act together if anyone is going to be lynched. With 3 mafia, def absent and yuma gone until almost midnight there could be just 8 of us townies available to vote today. If we are going to lynch a mafia, it will take a near-unanimous decision. Since we don't know exactly who the mafia is, it appears unclear whether we will be able to reach that near-unanimity. If we can't, a no-lynch or a lynch of a townie is almost inevitable.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #716 on: June 03, 2012, 06:59:01 pm »

Galzria: J and O are mafia.

Waaaaayyyyyyy too confident, its just insane.

Right, because we should all just close our eyes and point randomly instead of paying attention. Even you wouldn't.... Oh wait, you DID say we should do that.

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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #717 on: June 03, 2012, 06:59:59 pm »

There's reason to be suspicious of pretty much EVERYONE right now. I know I have suspicions, some stronger than others, and some that will become stronger if certain things happen. But we have 8 hours to lynch, so...time to compromise yet? I think it's too early to really be talking about tomorrow. We have to resolve today first.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #718 on: June 03, 2012, 07:00:17 pm »

Galzria: J and O are mafia.

Waaaaayyyyyyy too confident, its just insane.

Right, because we should all just close our eyes and point randomly instead of paying attention. Even you wouldn't.... Oh wait, you DID say we should do that.

I did say it, and I stand by it.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #719 on: June 03, 2012, 07:03:40 pm »

Galzria: J and O are mafia.

Waaaaayyyyyyy too confident, its just insane.

Right, because we should all just close our eyes and point randomly instead of paying attention. Even you wouldn't.... Oh wait, you DID say we should do that.

I did say it, and I stand by it.

Lol. I hope after I die the town sees just how hard the Mafia has worked to split everyone up, instead of bringing them together.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #720 on: June 03, 2012, 07:05:54 pm »

Galzria, you seem to think that O is mafia, but you are "certain" Robz is town. Think O is trying to make a friend by siding with him on this Eevee vote?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #721 on: June 03, 2012, 07:06:28 pm »

Galzria, you seem to think that O is mafia, but you are "certain" Robz is town. Think O is trying to make a friend by siding with him on this Eevee vote?

What the hell.. I STARTED the Eevee vote.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #722 on: June 03, 2012, 07:07:37 pm »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (1) - yuma
Robz888 (3) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee
jotheonah (1) - Galzria
Eevee (1) - O

Not Voting (7) - Robz, def, michaeljb, Voltgloss, jotheonah, Morgrim7, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT


Proof
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #723 on: June 03, 2012, 07:08:35 pm »

Galzria, you seem to think that O is mafia, but you are "certain" Robz is town. Think O is trying to make a friend by siding with him on this Eevee vote?

What the hell.. I STARTED the Eevee vote.

Ok ok you both thought he was suspicious, regardless of who voted first. You are "siding with" each other. I didn't say I agree with him that you are mafia. I'm trying to see why he is so sure that you are mafia and Robz is town when your records so far in this game look very similar.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #724 on: June 03, 2012, 07:09:20 pm »

I'm actually pretty satisfied with no lynch at this point, and not just because my head is one of the ones on the chopping block. I feel like there's a lot of important information out there, and a lot of interesting alliances and rivalries, but I can't make sense of them yet. Perhaps our investigators or doctors will learn something helpful. Perhaps the mafia kill will put things in perspective.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #725 on: June 03, 2012, 07:15:00 pm »

Dsell, it's to early to make a real claim about pairs. I'm just saying O has made rather terrible arguments against me, and ignored anything that I've actually said in explanation. His responses have been: "I lol'd. Galzria is either terrible Mafia or terrible town". He's now come out saying "he's my target tomorrow". If he's successful, my voice is gone, and he will claim "See? Just a bad town. We're better without him", and I won't be there to defend, so he'll control the conversation.

Now, maybe HE is just bad town, maybe he's Mafia. I'm not nearly as certain about him as J. The fact that both will be alive tomorrow (neither will get night lynched - one is, I believe, Mafia. The other divides town, doing the Mafias job for them), so I will stay on J, and not get into a war of accusation with O, who if he IS Mafia, starts with 2 other voices on his side (even if they hedge and don't come out swinging to avoid suspicion).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #726 on: June 03, 2012, 07:21:31 pm »

Galzria, I'm not asking you to make a claim about pairs, I was asking for the purpose of my point, which is: you are super super confident that Robz is town and you are becoming increasingly confident (it would appear) that O is mafia. Not only have they voted the same way, they have both attacked me for being a bad townie and have generally agreed with each other most of the time. Do you feel just a little bit that your confidence could be misplaced?
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #727 on: June 03, 2012, 07:27:12 pm »

Galzria: I understand your first point.

I'm OK with your second point.  People aren't saying that they believe him, but that it is foolish to lynch him immediately after the claim.  I think your position is reasonable, but so is the other position.  I fall in line with the latter -- I want to give jo a chance.

Your certainty makes absolutely no sense to me.  Unless you have a special role that confers that knowledge on you, you simply don't have that knowledge on day 1.  Perhaps jo just had some tell that you picked up on and everyone else missed.  OK, sure.  That is almost believable.  If someone were to make such a tell, it's unlikely that they are town that accidentally appeared super scummy.

But what about Robz?  You were certain, absolutely certain, that he is town.  Why?  How can you be sure he isn't Mafia that has played a good game so far (and that's actually questionable -- plenty of people found his behaviour suspect).  Why are you assuming that your DAY ONE reads are absolutely correct?

I can believe that you have a strong read that jo is Mafia.  I can believe that you have a strong read that Robz is not.  I find it had to swallow that you know both of these things with certainty after a single day.  "I don't waffle, I don't hedge" does not work for me.  You might want to be presented with an "actual reason to be wrong", but I haven't seen satisfactory evidence from you that you're right.

You are becoming more and more suspicious to me, but my fear is  that you might have a special role that gives you certainty, and you just don't want to reveal that role.  I can't tell if you are serious that you are simply not waffling or hedging.  It really doesn't seem like you -- you were a very smart player in Mafia II, and claiming certainty does not seem smart at all.  Did you go after people with "certainty" in that game (even though it would have been an act)?  Can find examples?  How did you react when it turned out you were "wrong"?

I'm actually pretty satisfied with no lynch at this point, and not just because my head is one of the ones on the chopping block. I feel like there's a lot of important information out there, and a lot of interesting alliances and rivalries, but I can't make sense of them yet. Perhaps our investigators or doctors will learn something helpful. Perhaps the mafia kill will put things in perspective.

I absolutely disagree.  There are clearly several camps forming up.  It would be easy for Mafia to select their kill to manipulate the feelings of those who have yet to join a side.  If one of these factions is Mafia-infested, they could kill one of their townie supporters.  Or they could go after the other side and argue double bluff.  Or they could leave all this factional fighting alone and kill someone who isn't active.  No lynch leaves us nowhere, unless you expect we have several town power roles who will get lucky tonight and make a claim tomorrow.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #728 on: June 03, 2012, 07:30:46 pm »

You're asking if Robz/O could be Mafia, and my read on Robz is wrong?

Interesting. I don't think I am, but neither would vote J. Both have attacked the same places (although O stayed as quiet and misleading as he could, without listing any thoughts until pressed).

Hum. Worth considering. That almost sets up a trio for me in Robz/O/J.

I don't think they would be so obvious, except that, well they HAVEN'T been obvious.  Dsell, my case against J will remain into tomorrow, but I'm willing to flesh out your ideas, and UNVOTE --- VOTE:ROBZ. If nothing else, I do NOT want to see today end in no-lynch, which oddly, certain people *cough* Robz/O *cough* seem to be perfectly fine with.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #729 on: June 03, 2012, 07:32:34 pm »

That was very well-put eHalcyon, and I especially agree with your last paragraph. I think that while we have some good information, the mafia may be able to use their kill to manipulate one group and get some "see, I told you so!" reactions out of people, leading us to use our information poorly. I can't say for sure whether that would work, but I could see it happening.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #730 on: June 03, 2012, 07:32:41 pm »

#728 is directed at Dsell,, but I hope satisfies you eHalcyon? Town needs to band together now, and there may be something here.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #731 on: June 03, 2012, 07:33:43 pm »

"As quiet and misleading"

Quiet? You're now saying I've been *quiet*. Of all things, quiet.

You're getting increasingly ridiculous with your accusations.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #732 on: June 03, 2012, 07:33:57 pm »

Dsell, it's to early to make a real claim about pairs. I'm just saying O has made rather terrible arguments against me, and ignored anything that I've actually said in explanation. His responses have been: "I lol'd. Galzria is either terrible Mafia or terrible town". He's now come out saying "he's my target tomorrow". If he's successful, my voice is gone, and he will claim "See? Just a bad town. We're better without him", and I won't be there to defend, so he'll control the conversation.

Now, maybe HE is just bad town, maybe he's Mafia. I'm not nearly as certain about him as J. The fact that both will be alive tomorrow (neither will get night lynched - one is, I believe, Mafia. The other divides town, doing the Mafias job for them), so I will stay on J, and not get into a war of accusation with O, who if he IS Mafia, starts with 2 other voices on his side (even if they hedge and don't come out swinging to avoid suspicion).

So you think O may be bad town, or Mafia?  Why the waffling here but not on J?  I understand the uncertainty.  I am still trying to make sense of why you are so against J.  I don't see a major case against him.  Did you present one and I've just forgotten?  The worst thing I remember you saying about him is that he appears to be too pro-town.  I think that is an OK reason to be suspicious, but a very weak reason to be certain.

NOTE: this was being typed up before Galzria made his new vote.  Going to respond to that now...
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #733 on: June 03, 2012, 07:34:05 pm »

can someone show me some of the math regarding to nolynch versus random lynch? i was under the impression that nolynch is just terrible for down, but nolynch seems to be gaining popularity so whats the deal? i would rather see a nolynch than myself lynched obviously but i guess that would be the case if i was mafia too.

@O a while back
I think def's silence increases the odds of him being mafia slightly (not a lot obviously but if I had a choice between lynching him or random, I'd pick him.)
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #734 on: June 03, 2012, 07:35:24 pm »

can someone show me some of the math regarding to nolynch versus random lynch? i was under the impression that nolynch is just terrible for down, but nolynch seems to be gaining popularity so whats the deal? i would rather see a nolynch than myself lynched obviously but i guess that would be the case if i was mafia too.

@O a while back
I think def's silence increases the odds of him being mafia slightly (not a lot obviously but if I had a choice between lynching him or random, I'd pick him.)

If you can convince people to vote for def, I guess I'd consider. Good luck though, people seem to be stuck on the magical-J-O-Robz trio.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #735 on: June 03, 2012, 07:35:46 pm »

The "certainty" thing is just who I am. I can't explain it better. But I will respond to well made thoughts, and will change my mind. Circumstances dictate I do so. I would rather lynch town Robz than no lynch, so right or wrong if it brings town together, I'm good with this.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #736 on: June 03, 2012, 07:36:52 pm »

"The certainty thing is just who I am"

I read Mafia II. The certainty thing was not evident in your 6-page tome. You were mafia then.

So are you just a really really really really terrible townie?
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #737 on: June 03, 2012, 07:40:00 pm »

hmm again guys, what does hedging mean?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #738 on: June 03, 2012, 07:41:52 pm »

And I do love O's posts? Anybody else get a chuckle out of how he throws personal attacks out at anybody who suspects him or his boys? Truly lol worthy reading. +1.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #739 on: June 03, 2012, 07:42:29 pm »

"Hedging your bets" is a term for when you make sure the outcome isn't bad for you in either case. You're a pro poker player.. so In Roulette  ::), if you bet on both black and red, you'd "hedge your bets". Obviously in roulette, a negative-sum-game, its a bad idea, but in non-zero-sum games...
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #740 on: June 03, 2012, 07:43:17 pm »

And I do love O's posts? Anybody else get a chuckle out of how he throws personal attacks out at anybody who suspects him or his boys? Truly lol worthy reading. +1.

Have I really personally attacked anyone but you?  ;) I said Dsell followed you too closely, but I didn't mean to insult him.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #741 on: June 03, 2012, 07:48:36 pm »

galzria, being absolutely certain about things in a game with this little information just looks superunreasonable and kind of puts everything you say into a bad light. i actually like your arguments, but that certainty just makes you look less credible and people are likely to just get stuck on your attitude  and forget what you actually had to say.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #742 on: June 03, 2012, 07:49:40 pm »

Y tu, Galzria?

I would rather lynch town Robz than no lynch, so right or wrong if it brings town together, I'm good with this.

Why? It makes objective sense to lynch no one, rather than lynching a member of the town. I understand that no one can be sure I'm not town--but you, WERE sure, until just recently.

Let me explain my thoughts on No Lynch here. First of all, in Mafia II, I argued strongly that No Lynch was very bad. Well, I was a mafia member, so that was a misleading thing to say. In truth, it's better to lynch no one than lynch the wrong person. The mafia absolutely do want us to lynch somebody today, as long as that person is not mafia. The mafia want somebody to die every single last time there is a chance that somebody could die. We, the town, must be more judicious.

The worry about not killing anybody on Day 1 is that on Day 2 we are in the same boat. However, we aren't in the same boat on Day 2, because we have learned a lot of crazy things.

Here's the preferences for mafia: Killing innocent > No Lynch > Killing mafia
Here's the preferences for town: Killing mafia > No Lynch > Killing town

Are we going to kill a mafia right now? I am not a mafia. Jo is a One Shot Vigilante. I suspect Eevee, which is why I voted that way, but I'm not positive at all.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #743 on: June 03, 2012, 07:49:55 pm »

You're asking if Robz/O could be Mafia, and my read on Robz is wrong?

Interesting. I don't think I am, but neither would vote J. Both have attacked the same places (although O stayed as quiet and misleading as he could, without listing any thoughts until pressed).

Hum. Worth considering. That almost sets up a trio for me in Robz/O/J.

I don't think they would be so obvious, except that, well they HAVEN'T been obvious.  Dsell, my case against J will remain into tomorrow, but I'm willing to flesh out your ideas, and UNVOTE --- VOTE:ROBZ. If nothing else, I do NOT want to see today end in no-lynch, which oddly, certain people *cough* Robz/O *cough* seem to be perfectly fine with.

Interesting!  My gut feeling is that galzria voting with me is a bad thing.  After all the certainty - confidently claiming rob is town - now you vote for him?

Fwiw - despite still feeling slighted about your value to the town etc., and really being put off by your style of posting suspicions as facts, I do agree 120% agree that J's role claim is the absolute weakest out there.

Not only given a closed setup that the odds of any specific role counter claims are low, but then the claimed role is:

- impossible to prove without wasting it's power
- provides great cover for other roles: serial killer, godfather, probably others I'm not aware of
- its power increases the longer he survives without using it.  Claiming day 1 makes it increasingly unlikely that he will live a long time - if his claim is true


Finally, he went out if his way to lay the ground work for a possible counter claim, that there Might be 2 one shot vigs in the same game?  Why stop at 2?  Maybe we are playing a game with 3 mafia and 10 one shot vigs?  (note: someone should run this game!)

The only thing that stopped me from voting for him was your support of rob and statement of absolute certainty that j is mafia.

What does everyone else think?
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #744 on: June 03, 2012, 07:52:04 pm »

#728 is directed at Dsell,, but I hope satisfies you eHalcyon? Town needs to band together now, and there may be something here.

I am curious about your sudden reversal on Robz.  Earlier you said that you didn't want to switch to Eevee because you believe J guilty and Eevee clean.  But... aren't you doing the same thing now?

I want to hear more from Robz.  Looking back on it, even though Galzria was very much supporting Robz, I don't remember Robz being so chummy in return.  I posited the possibility that Galzria was Mafia defending Robz to appear more town if Robz is killed and flips town:

2. Galzria is Mafia and Robz is townie.  If Robz gets lynched, Galzria appears to be cleared.  Why would a Mafia member argue so vehemently against the lynching of a townie?  Well, it's a huge bonus if it means that Mafia member will be free of suspicion for the rest of the game.

The scenario looks quite possible to me in light of your vote change to Robz.

As I said, I've found your (IMO)unfounded certainty to be suspicious, and your explanations for it unsatisfactory.  And now your vote change undermines your explanations.  While everyone else questions your read on J, you stick by it.  When Dsell questions your read on Robz, you say "I think I'm still right but I'll switch my vote anyway."  What gives?

Gonna be bold now.  I have no idea is crazy or if it will gain any traction, but:

VOTE: GALZRIA
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #745 on: June 03, 2012, 07:54:28 pm »

"Hedging your bets" is a term for when you make sure the outcome isn't bad for you in either case. You're a pro poker player.. so In Roulette  ::), if you bet on both black and red, you'd "hedge your bets". Obviously in roulette, a negative-sum-game, its a bad idea, but in non-zero-sum games...
oh makes sense, thanks. fwiw, i havent taken O's negative posts about me as anything personal. just trying to get our points across in a heated game.

by the way i think you are all putting way too much emphasis on me playing poker. i'm just a talented gamer who happened to become obsessed with the right game at the right time and was fortunate enough to have a suitable risk tolerance etc.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #746 on: June 03, 2012, 07:55:25 pm »

"Hedging your bets" is a term for when you make sure the outcome isn't bad for you in either case. You're a pro poker player.. so In Roulette  ::), if you bet on both black and red, you'd "hedge your bets". Obviously in roulette, a negative-sum-game, its a bad idea, but in non-zero-sum games...
oh makes sense, thanks. fwiw, i havent taken O's negative posts about me as anything personal. just trying to get our points across in a heated game.

by the way i think you are all putting way too much emphasis on me playing poker. i'm just a talented gamer who happened to become obsessed with the right game at the right time and was fortunate enough to have a suitable risk tolerance etc.

I was being facetious (joking) about the poker thing, don't worry.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #747 on: June 03, 2012, 08:00:08 pm »

#728 is directed at Dsell,, but I hope satisfies you eHalcyon? Town needs to band together now, and there may be something here.

I am curious about your sudden reversal on Robz.  Earlier you said that you didn't want to switch to Eevee because you believe J guilty and Eevee clean.  But... aren't you doing the same thing now?

I want to hear more from Robz.  Looking back on it, even though Galzria was very much supporting Robz, I don't remember Robz being so chummy in return.  I posited the possibility that Galzria was Mafia defending Robz to appear more town if Robz is killed and flips town:

2. Galzria is Mafia and Robz is townie.  If Robz gets lynched, Galzria appears to be cleared.  Why would a Mafia member argue so vehemently against the lynching of a townie?  Well, it's a huge bonus if it means that Mafia member will be free of suspicion for the rest of the game.

The scenario looks quite possible to me in light of your vote change to Robz.

As I said, I've found your (IMO)unfounded certainty to be suspicious, and your explanations for it unsatisfactory.  And now your vote change undermines your explanations.  While everyone else questions your read on J, you stick by it.  When Dsell questions your read on Robz, you say "I think I'm still right but I'll switch my vote anyway."  What gives?

Gonna be bold now.  I have no idea is crazy or if it will gain any traction, but:

VOTE: GALZRIA

I like it for my reasons above, but I'm sticking wih rob for fear that you are flying to his rescue at the last hour. At this point, I'm willing to vote for any of robs, galzria, or j, and will monitor the situation as evening progresses.  I don't like the Eevee vote, but that's more of a gut reaction than anything studied or reasoned.  The case against him seems to be: he's pretty vanilla, and that's what mafia wants to be on day 1.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #748 on: June 03, 2012, 08:02:38 pm »

galzria, being absolutely certain about things in a game with this little information just looks superunreasonable and kind of puts everything you say into a bad light. i actually like your arguments, but that certainty just makes you look less credible and people are likely to just get stuck on your attitude  and forget what you actually had to say.

I'm not sure what you want me to say. I believe something (J is Mafia), and I'm being asked to... Not? Make my case with conviction? I could say, "Well, I think X is guilty for A, B, and C, but hey, I'm willing to disregard that and jump on a bandwagon I don't believe in". Somehow that's supposed to make me appear LESS scummy?

If I believe something, I'll stand by it. That may not work for you, but it's who I am, and I'm not likely to change. I'm more than willing to admit when I'm wrong, and I'm willing to change my beliefs if presented with a reason or argument to do so.

In this case, Dsell has made an interesting point to me, and it's one I'm willing to flesh out. I'm also actually and genuinely interested in town winning, so have changed my vote to bring town together. I could write a giant post on why I believe what I do, but it'll just get torn down and disregarded as "that's what he did last game and was Mafia".

I've explained my thoughts on J. If (at this deadline), I can't convince town, I will rally around where I think I think we can being the town together: Robz. Because lynching IS better than No lynching.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #749 on: June 03, 2012, 08:03:45 pm »

By the way, in my earlier posts I said that I had an idea for what J's power might be that would be best kept secret.  Since he didn't claim it, I just thought I'd share -- a revenge role.  That is, a role where he kills anyone who kills him in the night.  I kind of wish that had been it, as it would have been a nasty surprise to the Mafia member who tries to kill the freshly-revealed town power role.  Not sure if that kind of role has ever been used before, but it would be neat.

This closed setup sure adds a lot of tension.  So far I've been assuming two town power roles like the other games we've had, but that seems less likely to me now.  Possibly jo is telling the truth about one-shot Vigilante powers, and that there are some others with one-shot abilities.  I expect that there is at least one townie with a full power role (I would say Cop or Jailkeeper, maybe both).  And as I suggested earlier, perhaps the reason there are factions formed up (well less so now that Galz turned on Robz) is that there are multiple Mason groups.

Maybe the closed set up is to hide the fact that the town is overloaded with power roles?  It certainly gives the Mafia a chance to divide and conquer.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #750 on: June 03, 2012, 08:06:49 pm »

galzria, being absolutely certain about things in a game with this little information just looks superunreasonable and kind of puts everything you say into a bad light. i actually like your arguments, but that certainty just makes you look less credible and people are likely to just get stuck on your attitude  and forget what you actually had to say.

I'm not sure what you want me to say. I believe something (J is Mafia), and I'm being asked to... Not? Make my case with conviction? I could say, "Well, I think X is guilty for A, B, and C, but hey, I'm willing to disregard that and jump on a bandwagon I don't believe in". Somehow that's supposed to make me appear LESS scummy?

If I believe something, I'll stand by it. That may not work for you, but it's who I am, and I'm not likely to change. I'm more than willing to admit when I'm wrong, and I'm willing to change my beliefs if presented with a reason or argument to do so.

In this case, Dsell has made an interesting point to me, and it's one I'm willing to flesh out. I'm also actually and genuinely interested in town winning, so have changed my vote to bring town together. I could write a giant post on why I believe what I do, but it'll just get torn down and disregarded as "that's what he did last game and was Mafia".

I've explained my thoughts on J. If (at this deadline), I can't convince town, I will rally around where I think I think we can being the town together: Robz. Because lynching IS better than No lynching.

No.  I don't want you to change your mind or forsake your conviction.  I want to see the logic behind that conviction.  I don't mind if you make a giant post about it as in Mafia II.  Your role in that game just means your post will undergo more scrutiny; it doesn't automatically invalidate what you have to say.  Alternatively, you can present your case as succinctly as possible.  Either option is better than saying you are sure of J's guilt while presenting no case at all.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #751 on: June 03, 2012, 08:07:12 pm »

My change is in the face of the deadline, and not so much else. I still think Robz is town, but admit (in light of Dsell's points) that I COULD be wrong. But any lynch is better than none, and I obviously wasn't going to convince people to vote for J today. With so many inactive town, I am trying to give town the most chance to collect the votes needed to lynch.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #752 on: June 03, 2012, 08:09:38 pm »

My change is in the face of the deadline, and not so much else. I still think Robz is town, but admit (in light of Dsell's points) that I COULD be wrong. But any lynch is better than none, and I obviously wasn't going to convince people to vote for J today. With so many inactive town, I am trying to give town the most chance to collect the votes needed to lynch.

Any lynch is not better than none, except for the mafia!!!!!! Lynch of a town is worse than no lynch! Why is this so hard to understand?????
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #753 on: June 03, 2012, 08:10:26 pm »

If he thinks I'm town he shouldn't vote for me. And he's said he's certain I'm town.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #754 on: June 03, 2012, 08:14:49 pm »

I like it for my reasons above, but I'm sticking wih rob for fear that you are flying to his rescue at the last hour. At this point, I'm willing to vote for any of robs, galzria, or j, and will monitor the situation as evening progresses.  I don't like the Eevee vote, but that's more of a gut reaction than anything studied or reasoned.  The case against him seems to be: he's pretty vanilla, and that's what mafia wants to be on day 1.

I'm not trying to defend Robz at all.  If you refer to the post that I quoted, I also listed a possibility that both are Mafia.  I'll just quote that whole section:

Galzria's Certainty

Galzria was saying that he's certain Robz is a Townie.  He later says that it's because he doesn't hedge, but even then how can he be certain?  Given how sly he was in Mafia II, I can't imagine that he would exaggerate a day 1 town read on Robz as certainty.

These are the explanations I can come up with right now:

1. Galzria and Robz are both masons (or some similar role).  If this is the case, I don't see a reason why they shouldn't role claim, but I'm a newb. 

2. Galzria is Mafia and Robz is townie.  If Robz gets lynched, Galzria appears to be cleared.  Why would a Mafia member argue so vehemently against the lynching of a townie?  Well, it's a huge bonus if it means that Mafia member will be free of suspicion for the rest of the game.

3. Galzria and Robz are both Mafia.  If Robz doesn't get lynch, that's a win.  If Robz gets lynched, Galzria can argue that as a Mafia member there is no way that he would tie himself so closely to another Mafia member, and -- oops sorry -- that he just made a really bad read on Robz.

4. Galzria has some exotic role like a Cop that can act during the day.  That's a real role, right?

At this point, I am finding #1 and #4 less likely.  I find #2 more likely than #3.  Although throwing Mafia under the bus now would give Galzria some credit, losing a teammate would still be a tough pill to swallow.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #755 on: June 03, 2012, 08:16:54 pm »

@Insomniac

Can you let us know if the deadline will be extended?  You said it was a possibility if nobody disagreed.  I honestly can't see why anyone would oppose it, other than Mafia seeking no lynch or to force a quick and messy mislynch.  And of course, in that case, to oppose is to label oneself anti-town.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #756 on: June 03, 2012, 08:17:50 pm »

He was talking about the deadline being extended for next week. We have 7 hours tonight, regardless. It's unfair to the mafia to have a random extension right now. (and no, i'm not mafia)
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #757 on: June 03, 2012, 08:19:21 pm »

@Insomniac

Can you let us know if the deadline will be extended?  You said it was a possibility if nobody disagreed.  I honestly can't see why anyone would oppose it, other than Mafia seeking no lynch or to force a quick and messy mislynch.  And of course, in that case, to oppose is to label oneself anti-town.

I thought the question was for day 2, but maybe I'm misremembering.  Not going to search on iPad.  In general,I'd be in favor of never having the end of day fall on a weekend. 
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #758 on: June 03, 2012, 08:20:58 pm »

The extension is for Day 2. Any extension given today would be too short notice to be fair
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #759 on: June 03, 2012, 08:23:29 pm »

Oh, my bad.

O, you implied you were going to campaign for Galzria day 2.  Why not switch now and try to make something happen?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #760 on: June 03, 2012, 08:24:08 pm »

Here's why lynching a town is better than no lynch. I'll use smaller numbers to make it easier:

If we start with an odd number of players (7) and (for this case) 2 Mafia, if we no lynch a townie dies at night leaving 6. There are now 4 town and 2 Mafia, and all 4 town must vote together to reach a majority. If they mislynch again, 2 town die, and the game ends.

If we start with an odd number of players (7) and (for this case) 2 Mafia, if we lynch a townie
and one dies at night, 5 remain. There are now 3 town and 2 Mafia, and all 3 town must vie together to reach a majority. If they mislynch, Mafia wins.

Both situations end with a Mafia win, but it is EASIER to get 3 town to vote together than 4. This argument holds true for any situation where there starts an odd number of people in the town. If we have an even number (first example after no lynch), it is better to no lynch again, to allow for the fewest number of town votes to lynch Mafia.

But we have 13. Lynching a town is better than not lynching. Today we need 7 of 10 (maybe 9). No lynch means we need 7 of 9 (as 12 players remaining, it takes 7 to reach majority).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #761 on: June 03, 2012, 08:28:16 pm »

I'm.. not sure. I hate Galzria's playstyle. I really really do. I also enjoy pissing Galzria off in this mafia game (its quite fun). But do I think he's mafia? Before he switched to Robz, I didn't really think so. But why the hell would he switch to Robz? It was ridiculous, after he vouched so hard for Robz. But it could be because we pressured him as a townie to the breaking point.

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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #762 on: June 03, 2012, 08:28:50 pm »

"Lynching a town is better than nolynching"

OK, thats it

Unvote
Vote:Galzria
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #763 on: June 03, 2012, 08:30:13 pm »

So do I think Robz is Mafia? Not really. Could he be? Ehh, maybe. Does it MAKE SENSE for me to leave my vote where my convictions are, resulting in a no lynch? No. If I could get people to vote J today, then yes. But with the deadline approaching it's apparent I can't. I would be hurting the town more to just "let" a no lynch happen because of my convictions and stubbornness.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #764 on: June 03, 2012, 08:30:38 pm »

Whoa, lots of new stuff.

Yay to the rest of the town for coming out and talking, that's the first thing I want to say. I feel like we have momentum now. The trouble, of course, is that we don't have a clear target.

Robz's and O's belief in my claim clears them somewhat in my book. The mafia are the ones who I expect to be advancing the "he's faking it" agenda since lynching me is much safer than nightkilling me, which might fail if I'm protected somehow.

So, who has made those arguments? Captain Frisk, and Galz. Could Captain Frisk be mafia? Absolutely. But he's stayed off my radar so far, and his points about my role claim are good points - it would be a convenient scum claim in several ways. I would hope that the lack of a counterclaim would be good evidence in my support, but CF's post could just as easily read to me as town.

Now Galzria... Galz talked about unvoting me when I softclaimed, but when I actually claimed he didn't back down. In fact, he didn't unvote me until people became so aggravated with his certainty that it started looking like people would turn on him. The longer his crusade against me has gone on, the less town he's looked in my eyes, and I'm happy to see I'm not alone in that view.

What else bothers me about Galz? He keeps making comments about how he either is or isn't going to die in the night. In fact, he's gradually made the switch from "I am gonna die tonight" to "They're going to keep me alive tonight to breed suspicion." This reads to me like mafia making sure he has a good excuse for surviving night one. Recall that in M-II, one tell that very nearly unraveled G's masterful game was when I became suspicious that he hadn't been nightkilled yet.

I was thinking G was town because his crusade was so unrelentingly obvious that the mafia would never do that, but last game's results are relevant here. Galzria just came off a game as mafia. He draws mafia again. How can he make sure he won't get caught by someone analyzing his meta? Adopt the totally opposite mafia strategy. And from what I know of Galz, I can just see him taking this kind of a risk with his Day 1 play - especially if his two cohorts are still out there.

I was feeling dirty about the E vote because my confidence that he's scum is low. And I agree with Robz that no lynch is not the end of the world for town, in a case where town really can't decide. But neither of those votes is necessary if I can vote for someone who I really, truly think is scum. Unless some overwhelming evidence falls from the sky, I will not be changing my vote again today.

Unvote
Vote: Galzria

Final note, I hope you won't all see me just voting for him because he voted for me. I had many chances to do that, and instead I gave him the benefit of the doubt. But his play has gotten scummier and scummier in my eyes, and I'm ready to make a stand.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #765 on: June 03, 2012, 08:32:58 pm »

And look at them move. O hasn't pissed me off at all, but here ya go. Want terrible town play? You won't listen to me anyway, so what the hell. VOTE: GALZRIA
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #766 on: June 03, 2012, 08:33:42 pm »

@Insomniac

Can you let us know if the deadline will be extended?  You said it was a possibility if nobody disagreed.  I honestly can't see why anyone would oppose it, other than Mafia seeking no lynch or to force a quick and messy mislynch.  And of course, in that case, to oppose is to label oneself anti-town.

I thought the question was for day 2, but maybe I'm misremembering.  Not going to search on iPad.  In general,I'd be in favor of never having the end of day fall on a weekend.

I fully agree, maybe extending next weeks deadline by two days and then having all the subsequent deadlines fall on a wednesday?

Galzria, I'm not saying you shouldnt try to convince others when you have a strong hunch. I'm saying you would be more likely to have some success if you appeared more like you got to your conclusions using the info all of us have available. Saying you are 100% sure is just moronic if you are a vanilla townie, surely you wouldnt make a bet about it if I laid you 20-1 (even if you should if you are 100% sure). That means a) you know something others dont (mafia, mason?) or b) you actually arent as sure as you make it seem.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #767 on: June 03, 2012, 08:33:46 pm »

Like I pointed out above, it's better I die as town than no lynch.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #768 on: June 03, 2012, 08:34:18 pm »

O hasn't pissed me off at all,

I really hope that was intentional sarcasm, instead of unintentional irony.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #769 on: June 03, 2012, 08:36:31 pm »

Unvote
Vote: Galzria

Final note, I hope you won't all see me just voting for him because he voted for me. I had many chances to do that, and instead I gave him the benefit of the doubt. But his play has gotten scummier and scummier in my eyes, and I'm ready to make a stand.

To be fair, if you ARE Mafia, you wouldn't make the switch because it would look vindictive and scummy, and it probably wouldn't gain traction.  But there is a wagon now...

And look at them move. O hasn't pissed me off at all, but here ya go. Want terrible town play? You won't listen to me anyway, so what the hell. VOTE: GALZRIA

There's a chance we might still be stuck at 6 and end with no lynch.  This isn't going to make me unvote.  What might make me unvote is if you give ANY good reason why you suspect jo so very much.  You have avoided that again and again.  The strongest case you've made is that he appeared very pro-town to you.  That's not strong enough.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #770 on: June 03, 2012, 08:36:57 pm »

O hasn't pissed me off at all,

I really hope that was intentional sarcasm, instead of unintentional irony.

Just the truth. /shrug
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #771 on: June 03, 2012, 08:38:57 pm »

No e, I hope I get to 7. You can put a dent in O's beloved "perfect record".
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #772 on: June 03, 2012, 08:39:30 pm »

No e, I hope I get to 7. You can put a dent in O's beloved "perfect record".

Perfect record? I lynched a townie with my first vote.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #773 on: June 03, 2012, 08:40:14 pm »

Like I pointed out above, it's better I die as town than no lynch.

I disagree.  A lot can happen before we get into a lylo situation.  Heck, a lot can happen TONIGHT.  We have no idea what power roles are out there, and that can really matter.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #774 on: June 03, 2012, 08:41:59 pm »

For the record, eHal, if you look at the length of my post and the time stamp on my post and O's, you'll see that I was composing it long before I saw his vote.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #775 on: June 03, 2012, 08:45:18 pm »

For the record, eHal, if you look at the length of my post and the time stamp on my post and O's, you'll see that I was composing it long before I saw his vote.

Fair enough.  But my vote was the first, and voting second feels a lot safer than voting first.  Plus, you could have been composing the post without intending to vote until you saw O's (due to the "new posts have been made" feature of the forum).
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #776 on: June 03, 2012, 08:50:04 pm »

"Lynching a town is better than nolynching"

OK, thats it

Unvote
Vote:Galzria
Yeah wtf.
VOTE: Galzria
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #777 on: June 03, 2012, 08:53:17 pm »

"Lynching a town is better than nolynching"

OK, thats it

Unvote
Vote:Galzria
Yeah wtf.
VOTE: Galzria

I believe this is 6.  Galzria - any words?
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #778 on: June 03, 2012, 08:54:38 pm »

Aww, you are too nice to be Mafia! Maybe it is that you are a fellow solo challenge hoster. ;)
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #779 on: June 03, 2012, 08:55:52 pm »


2) The biggest lesson for me is "O is a terrible player"


I'll just repeat my Mafia I voting record:

Townie over Town Cop
Mafia Rolecop over Town Cop
Mafia (universal tho)

I also sparked tons of contributions to this thread, whereas you've been nearly entirely silent.

Have you even played much mafia before? It'd be funny if you made such a claim while being relatively inexperienced.

Plus you vote for robz without a real reason to.


Unvote
Vote:Eevee

Seemed pretty proud to me. You also used it in post #449.

Also, I believe #276 you said "statistically, lynching is better than not lynching", now you use it as a reason to vote for me. Lol.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #780 on: June 03, 2012, 08:57:37 pm »

"Lynching a town is better than nolynching"

OK, thats it

Unvote
Vote:Galzria
Yeah wtf.
VOTE: Galzria

I believe this is 6.  Galzria - any words?

I thought it was 5?

Me, O, jo, Galzria himself, Eevee... did I miss someone?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #781 on: June 03, 2012, 09:00:23 pm »

Anyway, hope I hit 7 soon. This is going to be funny watching Mafia go perfect in this game (winning in the fewest number of turns they can). Although as I can still win if they lose, I hope you all will consider what I said after my death.

You may not like that I play with conviction, but that won't change. Look forward to pissing O off in future games as town by playing the exact same way.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #782 on: June 03, 2012, 09:01:21 pm »


I believe this is 6.  Galzria - any words?

Ooops - Control F was finding votes within quotes.

Seems like we have:


eHalcyon
joTheonah
Galzria
O
eeVee
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #783 on: June 03, 2012, 09:05:33 pm »

And look at them move. O hasn't pissed me off at all, but here ya go. Want terrible town play? You won't listen to me anyway, so what the hell. VOTE: GALZRIA

That's it!

I see 3 possibilities:

1.  Galzria has finally mafia forum snapped and wants to flip the table.
2.  Galzria is making a calculated risk as the bandwagon grows that by appearing to do something absolutely terrible (self lynch), we will put a stop to the lynching.
3.  Galzria is prone to erratic play - similar to Morgrim.

Based on his play from Mafia II - I'm ruling out 3.  I bet Galzria was sitting at home, with a big dopey grin on his face when Morgrim self hammered.

Based on his play from Mafia II - and his continued interested (although hedged in Mafia IV) - that I'm going to say that 2 is more likely than 1.

I'm nervous - but I'm going to:

Unvote

Vote: Galzria
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #784 on: June 03, 2012, 09:08:47 pm »

Yay! Need one more people. See how the Mafia lead. Lynch Galzria!
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #785 on: June 03, 2012, 09:10:20 pm »

Yay! Need one more people. See how the Mafia lead. Lynch Galzria!
Why are you doing this!?! Downvote, a million times.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #786 on: June 03, 2012, 09:11:40 pm »

Yay! Need one more people. See how the Mafia lead. Lynch Galzria!

I refuse to accept that someone with the experience you have would truly be willing to self hammer as town to prove a point.  You are either taking a really big risk, or you are a serious jerk.  Since with a few exceptions, everyone on these forums is super friendly and awesome, I'm going with "big risk".
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #787 on: June 03, 2012, 09:13:10 pm »

I'm town, really, and O isn't bothering me. What did it for me were the constant calls and suspicions that because I showed conviction, I could be Mafia, FOLLOWED by "He is willing to give ground in the face of a perfectly present deadline, now I KNOW he's Mafia!"

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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #788 on: June 03, 2012, 09:18:38 pm »

Damned if you do, damned if you don't. I don't mind suspicions for having convictions. But the responses I got for TRYING to be reasonable, after I had universally been asked to do just that were incredibly... Ugh. I don't even know.

Unvote

Make you feel better? Probably not. Suspect me for one thing, fine. But to ask me to budge and then claim I must be Mafia because I DID?

Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #789 on: June 03, 2012, 09:19:13 pm »

I'm town, really, and O isn't bothering me. What did it for me were the constant calls and suspicions that because I showed conviction, I could be Mafia, FOLLOWED by "He is willing to give ground in the face of a perfectly present deadline, now I KNOW he's Mafia!"

I will be sorry if you flip town, but I was NEVER suspicious because you showed conviction.  I apologize if it sounded like that, but as I've repeatedly clarified in my last few posts, my suspicion is because you have showed conviction WITHOUT giving reason for it.  All you've done is say that jo looks too much like town.  Later on you said that you wouldn't give reasons because it would be torn apart, and big long explanations were your thing in Mafia II.  Even if that's the case, you could at least give a short explanation of some sort to back up your argument against jo.  Anything.  I mean, if you have such strong conviction, surely the reason can be summarized in a paragraph.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #790 on: June 03, 2012, 09:26:23 pm »

My reasons WERE listed in a (longer than necessary) post earlier. To sum it up, his words read town, his actions read Mafia. By that I mean someone who goes out of their way to DIVIDE the town, as his exercise did, drawing 6 different names as suspicious from 5 different people.

He also said one thing "Vote people, because anything less than 4 isn't a worry", then unvoted  (unvoted O, I'll add), because he didn't want to "leave him in danger", when O only had 3 votes.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #791 on: June 03, 2012, 09:40:03 pm »

VOTE: JOTHEONAH so at least if I die, I die somewhere I believe my vote could serve some REAL help to the town.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #792 on: June 03, 2012, 09:51:06 pm »

My reasons WERE listed in a (longer than necessary) post earlier. To sum it up, his words read town, his actions read Mafia. By that I mean someone who goes out of their way to DIVIDE the town, as his exercise did, drawing 6 different names as suspicious from 5 different people.

He also said one thing "Vote people, because anything less than 4 isn't a worry", then unvoted  (unvoted O, I'll add), because he didn't want to "leave him in danger", when O only had 3 votes.

I remember this post.  I remember feeling rather lukewarm about it, but I'm not sure now.  A lot has happened since then.  Can you link it so we can review?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #793 on: June 03, 2012, 09:54:57 pm »

Jeebus leave for a few hours and three new pages...real post coming once I catch up.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #794 on: June 03, 2012, 10:09:06 pm »

Same boat as Michaeljb, let me go through everything.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #795 on: June 03, 2012, 10:10:26 pm »

Alright, at the request of Dsell (although I would like to keep this short(er). No books this game!):

I started to type this out, explaining step by step how I came to my conclusions, and realized that it was going to become WAY to long for me to start setting a standard now. So instead I'm going to bullet point with commentary.


  • Where does Jotheonah stand on letting people sit with a few votes?

I would feel like kind of a jerk letting Morgrim be the Day 1 lynch ... AGAIN. Poor guy just wants to play some mafia.

On the other hand, two votes in a town this size is not so big a pressure cooker. It takes seven to kill? So 4 votes is the bare minimum for a mafia hammer, and that's assuming fairly stupid mafia play. So everybody calm down a little.

Seems to be pretty good advice. Don't panic over a few votes, because with this many people, a few votes can't hurt. Let's look at how he applied that advice to himself:

Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.

Taken all by itself, this seemed like a nice thing to do. And in fact, he even had ME thinking that:

Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.

+1 for doing the right thing. Unless you're Mafia covering your tracks. Hmm, ah, +1 anyway. I'm feeling nice today.

Buuut, not entirely. Those posts are back to back, and I was wary of how pro-town it felt even then. When Jotheonah unvoted, there were only 3 votes on O. One below the 4 that he admits being the "worry" number. And even 4 is only the "worry" number if the Mafia plays EXTREMELY poorly by hammering out the last 3 votes. So outside of "being a nice guy" there wasn't much reason for him to retract his vote except to give off a pro-town vibe. Is that damning all by itself? No, not really. Confusing, certainly. Saying one thing, and doing another for the sole purpose of being nice just didn't sit right with me.

  • Why was I wary of Jotheonah by that point?

Jotheonah's unvote post was #310. He stated in it that he was going to bed, but "jokingly" accused eHalcyon of not participating in his exercise. His "exercise" was post #291, less than 20 posts earlier:

I hear ya on that one. OK everybody, I am BORED. So I propose a game. Imagine that Insomniac posted that the new deadline was tomorrow and everyone has to vote for someone. Who would you vote for and why? (Note: don't ACTUALLY vote.)

And ... GO!

(I will be immediately suspicious of anyone who chooses not to participate in this exercise)

This was the post that grabbed my attention. I posted in M-II MANY times over that the Mafia would do their best to stir up confusion and suspicion. While I did my best to remain as "town" as I could there, I also did my best to poke and prod as many places as I could. J does a good job once again of phrasing this post to appear pro-town (especially the "don't actually vote" - Do you REALLY think that was necessary?), but stop for a moment and think what this ACTUALLY does.

I can't recall who (I think it was Dsell, though maybe C.F.) said they weren't REALLY suspicious of Robz, but were just taking part in this "exercise", and it was Robz's response that made them start thinking as him as a possible Mafia. There are a lot of people in this game. If accusations start flying around by townies without any real drive behind them, we will end up self-lynching ourselves. So what does he do? He starts this exercise, and then gets outta the way by "going to bed".

This was a great Mafia move in a town this size. His first response to both my above accusations is this:

Quick reply to G before work.

I was bating O. He didn't seem to be taking the game seriously, I thought a few votes on his head would change that. It did. Look how he's been playing lately. As soon as he looked to be in any real danger I unvoted.  Just like my "exercise" post, I'm looking for ways to generate meaningful replies for analysis. I think it's working.

By his own admission earlier, O should not have appeared to be in any "real danger". That unvote served no purpose except to make him look good. He knows that his case for survival in later days is going to be how he composed himself early. It worked for me, why not for him?

His second point is more to the truth of the matter. "I think it's working". Let's look at who had "accused" who in his "exercise":
#315, Voltgloss -> eHalcyon
#312, eHalcyon -> Morgrim/O
#304, Dsell -> def/Robz
#294, Galzria -> O/Volt
And much further down (at Eevee's first chance online), you have post #365 (will quote that a bit below): Eevee - Jotheonah/O

And that's not to mention Yuma or C.F. who had Morgrim voted already.

So his seemingly helpful exercise has caused the town to blow up in suspicions of each other, NONE of which he had a hand in. Why is that important? Two reasons:

1) He can't be tied back to any bad lynch that comes from that
2) He has town jumping on town.

We have SIX people as listed suspects in that list (seven if you include him from Eevee's post). Two of which are still primary suspects in most of your eyes. And NEITHER of those two has J connecting to them.

  • One last point before I go. This is already way longer than I wanted and as I'm tired, probably not as clear as I intended. Eevee's post #365 (Taking part in the "exercise") and J's response to it:

Suspicious: johtheonah (Something feels very off here. I'll try to think of a way explain this when I have more time, I actually meant to just post a list now but I started writing the neutral column first and had something to say about everyone of those so I feel I've got to do the same here)

That something you can't explain Eevee, is that he is too damn "pro-town". Everything he's done he's done in a "to help the town" manner, but has done anything BUT, or cast him in a better light. And before you could get more time to try and think what it was:

First of all, sorry for being busy and not posting for a while. Just caught up with everything.. oh so much reading. Makes me forget the stuff I had to say four pages back.. should really try to get online every 5 hours or so to not miss out on stuff.

Oh well, I'll chime in with my hunches now:

Suspicious: johtheonah (Something feels very off here. I'll try to think of a way explain this when I have more time, I actually meant to just post a list now but I started writing the neutral column first and had something to say about everyone of those so I feel I've got to do the same here) > O (you've got to know that is bad bad town play.. kind of weird though, dont really think you would go that route if you were mafia either but.. eh, pretty confident that cant be a power townie role at least) > Morgrim (was my #1 suspect until someone posted he was just like this in some other game where he was town. Still not exaclty convinced but certainly helps his case)

Neutral: michaeljb (you post a lot yet I still dont remember any of your opinions. have you actually said much anything?), def (posting so little, hard to say), Galzria (posts a lot, some of it looks mafia-ish, some of it townish. undecided still but inclined to believe you're clean and sincere), Captain_Frisk (I find myself agreeing with a lot of your posts but am still not convinced. somehow it feels like you arent 100% honest / helping town as much as you could if you really wanted to)

I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).

???: Robz, half the time you seem like a sure townie, then you go around and say something too stupid for a guy that smart and start looking suspicious again. Your playing style is very good for the game though, so if I was equally suspicious of you and someone else, I'd rather vote for the someone else.

If the lynch was tomorrow morning, I'd pick either O or johtheonah but hopefully we'll get more info before we have to cross that bridge. Everything still looks very puzzling, I find myself hoping I could be "sure" of someone so that I could really start to hammer that person instead of posting these somewhat vague thoughts (sorry guys, I really dont have anything better to offer). Mafia seems to be playing very well which makes me suspect the silent ones and the more experienced ones more (and johtheonah seems to be the only one of my 3 suspects above who fits either of these labels so arghhhh).

BWUH? Man I don't mind being accused here and there, shows the town are on their toes and all that, but I just got cited as #1 suspicious person without any concrete (or even abstract) reasons given AT ALL.  Eevee, I was getting a town read off you, but who does that?

I want to believe you're just new and don't see how incredibly suspicious that kind of vague, unsubstantiated pseudo-accusation is.

Also, you say Mafia is playing well, but I'm not sure what that even means at this point. All we can say is that Mafia hasn't done anything unbelievably stupid.

The very first person that suspected him in his exercise, he flips out over. **Oh No! How could THAT have happened! Well, good thing Eevee didn't bring any PROOF.** Boy, shoe doesn't fit so well on the other foot, does it J?

-----

So there you go. Probably not as clear as I normally would like, but I'm tired, and I don't have AS much at stake as my M-II game. Again though, I ask that you not be led to my conclusion based on my argument, but based on your own reasoning. I just ask that you stop to consider, "How would *I* act if I were Mafia? What would I try and do?" I feel that if you look at J's posts through that light, you'll notice that he looks pretty darn scummy. Not because he appears to the TOWN as scummy, but because he DOESN'T, yet his actions don't lead to good Town results.

To sum up:

His actions didn't back up his words regarding early voting.
He got off the "bandwagon" of O to set himself as looking good for future days.
His "exercise", while well disguised, did nothing but hurt the town.
He responded vitriolically to the taste of his own medicine when Eevee put him on the "would vote tomorrow" list
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #796 on: June 03, 2012, 10:11:40 pm »

Don't worry Eevee, I personally have not found your contributions scummy. I probably couldn't be convinced to vote for you day 1, in the same way that I probably couldn't be convinced to vote for Robz.

Now, I know that a bad lynch IS better than a no lynch because, well, the only person I KNOW is town is myself. So even if I don't believe someone is Mafia, they will still have a higher chance to be than I do.

So I will not rule out switching my vote at the deadline if I can't convince people to think backwards. I want to make sure we lynch SOMEBODY, but I would prefer it to be the person that I suspect. Alas, the troubles of being a team when you don't know who your teammates are!

That said, I would ask everybody to step back for just a moment and think: "If I were Mafia, how would I act, and how would I want the town to see me?" You'll start to understand why I find such strong pro-town play day 1 so much more suspicious than someone who appears (with 13 people playing) to give off slight Mafia "tells".

Most of you have admired that your feelings aren't strong, but that you just don't feel more comfortable with reads on anyone else. I understand that. I do. But put yourself in the Mafia's shoes (I've been there, remember) and you'll see why your angle of approach is wrong.

((I only refer to day 1, btw. After, everything goes out the window).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #797 on: June 03, 2012, 10:12:56 pm »

Alright, I've reviewed everything up to this point (Wow, more than 400 posts already!?! Seriously? 13 people are hard to keep track of! I can't believe we've had so much (even if the first ~100 were pre-game) already!)

I know def has said that he won't be as active, and that's generally fine, but I'm not sure who he's really helping in a game that (with shorter deadlines) is going to move so fast.

Still, I'm not going to get on him this round.

With the deadline fast approaching however (A day and a half away people), I am going to cast my vote now. I've been talking about my suspicions for awhile, and while O raised my hackles early on, I think he did so TOO much to be Mafia. At least for now (If I'm wrong, well played day 1 O). There's also been a lot of talk about Robz, and while I think that the people making their points about him certainly have something to go on, I also believe that those arguments are false. They're traps that have been fallen into both in M-I (Theory), and M-II (Morgrim). It's way to easy to start needling away at somebody, see them get a little defensive, and drive home the bandwagon. Especially in the first round. I don't believe the people going AFTER Robz are Mafia either, just inexperienced. Maybe that'll be the death of me. Who knows.

No, I'm going to stick to my guns here, and VOTE: JOTHEONAH. I'm going to do so for three reasons:

1) As I voiced earlier, I think he is driving conversation too much. His "Who would you vote for if the deadline were tomorrow" exercise, while I thought was good for getting people to think, it was also good for getting people to NOT think about him. He's been way to Pro-Town. Yes, that's counter-intuitive, but if my suspicions are correct, a good place for Mafia to be day 1.

2) His "on and off" vote of O. He got on O's case because it was easy to do, but he didn't get on for a good reason. "Being annoying" didn't add anything real to the discussion, and the other reasons listed was all just parroting of things I had already said. If that bandwagon goes anywhere and O gets lynched, it's easier to blame the originator (me) than the guy who liked his argument and actually voted first (Jotheonah). The weakness of his argument was actually pointed out to him, and he unvoted before going to bed. A very nice thing for him to do, yes? Except with so many people (as has been pointed out) there really wasn't any risk of a hammer vote. Someone pointed out how terrible the Mafia play would have to be to quick-hammer votes #5, #6, and #7 round 1. And O was only at 3. The fact is, town isn't GOING to quick hammer. They are going to take their time and slowly build up a case, because they want to feel sure. So the ONLY thing his unvote did was make him look nice.

3) Since I've pointed out why I think he's Mafia hiding as town, he's stopped responding. I fully expect this to change with my vote and reasons listed above. So J, I look forward to your rebuttal. His point that my whole argument for him being Mafia is that he appears so pro-town doesn't get him anywhere. Yes J, that is EXACTLY my point.

So, there you have it. Mafia get by round 1 because it's easy to hide as town, and easy for town to lead themselves to their own doom. Too many people, too many suspicions, too many straw-man cases. All they have to do is appear helpful and friendly. Active and important. Town will lynch themselves going after their own shadows. I propose a different tactic. Stop chasing our own shadows and actually look amongst ourselves.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #798 on: June 03, 2012, 10:13:26 pm »

There you are eHalcyon.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #799 on: June 03, 2012, 10:13:40 pm »

I largely trust the town's ability to reread, but would it be helpful for me to also dig up my defenses against all those posts? Because I'm happy to do that, if people feel it's warranted.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #800 on: June 03, 2012, 10:13:48 pm »

What's throwing me for a loop here is that the situation Galzria finds himself in is one entirely of his own making. By insisting on certain people's innocence and guilt, by insisting that we kill someone, anyone, even people he thinks are innocent, even people who are Power Townies, switching his vote to the person he had long defended, and by carrying on a personal feud (which I'm not blaming him for, I don't know who started it, or care, or whatever), Galzria has created suspicion for himself when previously very little existed.

Because Galzria is a savvy mafia player, rather than a crazy person, I'm trying to come up with reasons why Galzria would do all this. Or has he simply snapped?

Because I can't imagine why Mafia Galzria would do this--and because I still maintain that a 'no lynch' is perfectly acceptable at this point--I will not be voting for him. However, if 7 people are persuaded to vote for him, I can hardly blame them.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #801 on: June 03, 2012, 10:19:33 pm »

Because Mafia Galzria is not Town Galzria. And Town Galzria isn't as polished.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #802 on: June 03, 2012, 10:23:57 pm »

My switch to you, I explained. I DO believe that any lynch  (outside roles) is better than no lynch. And while I listed 3 situations for J to be, I still believe him Mafia. And I STILL have not seen a defense about not lynching him because of the claim outside of "he claimed, so he must be telling the truth", which could be done as both the role, and as a Mafia.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #803 on: June 03, 2012, 10:25:50 pm »

Because Mafia Galzria is not Town Galzria. And Town Galzria isn't as polished.

Well, I would believe that. I was the same way earlier this round. Town Robz wasn't as polished as Mafia Robz, and I got myself into trouble with a couple people, as you know. You were probably thinking you're immune, because you're not mafia this time, so what's their to suspect about you? You won't give anything away--there's nothing to give away, because you're not hiding anything, you're town. This is how I was playing, too. Well, lesson learned for me. I hope you've learned it as well.

And truly I disagree with you about the necessity of lynching this round, which is still my big hang up about you. I am pretty sure we are going to mistakenly lynch a townie no matter what we do--indeed, the main contender for awhile appears to now be a Power Townie--in which case it is absolutely better to not lynch.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #804 on: June 03, 2012, 10:26:00 pm »

Because Mafia Galzria is not Town Galzria. And Town Galzria isn't as polished.

If this is true, it's really beautifully ironic.

But Robz, you of all people would recognize a clone of G's MII playing style. He had to shake it up. It's hard enough to come up with one way of playing mafia that convincingly apes town. Galzria found himself needing to come up with two. Is it any wonder that the second one cracked up?
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #805 on: June 03, 2012, 10:27:23 pm »

Because Mafia Galzria is not Town Galzria. And Town Galzria isn't as polished.

If Mafia Galzria was in this game, would he act like Mafia Galzria from Mafia II - after a masterful display of town destruction?  I would hazard a guess that he would not.   I don't know that Mafia Galzria II would behave this crazy, but... certainly I wouldn't expect you to play the same.

Would town Galzria vote for himself?  We're not talking about joking / threatening to self hammering... you actually voted for yourself.  You taunted the town while @ 6 votes.  Why on earth would you do that?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #806 on: June 03, 2012, 10:28:44 pm »

Maybe Galzria saw my successes with being a screwball townie and decided to copy me, but intensify it times 20?

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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #807 on: June 03, 2012, 10:30:59 pm »

Because Mafia Galzria is not Town Galzria. And Town Galzria isn't as polished.

If this is true, it's really beautifully ironic.

But Robz, you of all people would recognize a clone of G's MII playing style. He had to shake it up. It's hard enough to come up with one way of playing mafia that convincingly apes town. Galzria found himself needing to come up with two. Is it any wonder that the second one cracked up?

Well, that does make sense. I'm not ruling that explanation out. It just doesn't entirely explain how far he's flown off the rails, to me.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #808 on: June 03, 2012, 10:31:30 pm »

I'm in the Dsell/michaeljb camp of "just now getting to read the latest and holy Shelter has a lot happened."  Trying now to organize my thoughts.  I wasn't seriously analyzing the possibility of Galzria as Mafia (or SK, I guess) before this, but now I guess I have to.

One thing I was wishing for and couldn't find is an updated vote count.  So I made one.  If someone who's been following more closely sees this is wrong, please holler.

Robz (1 vote)
- Dsell

jotheonah (3 votes)
- yuma
- Morgrim
- Galzria

Eevee (1 vote)
- Robz

Galzria (5 votes)
- eHalcyon
- O
- jotheonah
- Eevee
- Captain_Frisk

Not voted: def, Voltgloss, michaeljb
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #809 on: June 03, 2012, 10:31:53 pm »

@C.F. Because I honestly don't enjoy being myself (conviction to the point of stubbornness), being begged by everybody to concede SOME, doing so, and then being attacked for it. Wrong of me? Sure. But I was pissed about that. I also unvoted very shortly after that, and (if) I die now, at least I do so with my vote where it belongs: beside my convictions I never should've left.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #810 on: June 03, 2012, 10:34:03 pm »

Because Mafia Galzria is not Town Galzria. And Town Galzria isn't as polished.

If Mafia Galzria was in this game, would he act like Mafia Galzria from Mafia II - after a masterful display of town destruction?  I would hazard a guess that he would not.   I don't know that Mafia Galzria II would behave this crazy, but... certainly I wouldn't expect you to play the same.

Would town Galzria vote for himself?  We're not talking about joking / threatening to self hammering... you actually voted for yourself.  You taunted the town while @ 6 votes.  Why on earth would you do that?

When he hit 6 votes, he took his vote off himself. And he was here watching it like a hawk the whole time. I think he was hoping for a landslide of "Oh he must be town"s. Or he just lost his shit. This is an intense game.
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #811 on: June 03, 2012, 10:34:49 pm »

My views:

Possibility 1: Galzria is mafia (30%)
He tried the self-vote-zomg-I'm-insane-route to try to deflect voters
Possibility 2: Galzria is vanilla townie (65%)
He honestly believes townie lynch is better than no lynch. He thinks me and J are mafia partners and that him dying will lead to our lynchings, good for the town. Problem: Me and J aren't mafia partners
Possibility 3: Galzria is a power role
We're f*****
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #812 on: June 03, 2012, 10:35:26 pm »

Voltgloss your vote tally is correct, I've been watching and keeping track but the game has been moving fast enough that anything I post will almost certainly be outdated as I post it
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #813 on: June 03, 2012, 10:36:30 pm »

Yay! Need one more people. See how the Mafia lead. Lynch Galzria!

@jotheonah - he didn't take it off immediately...   he let it ride far longer than I would have.  I wonder how he fits those balls in his pants.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #814 on: June 03, 2012, 10:37:16 pm »

Guys!!! Great News!!

We have now passed the post counts of the Mafia I and II games


wooooooooooooo we're nuts woooooooooooooo
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #815 on: June 03, 2012, 10:37:24 pm »

Like to point out what my choices were there J, if I am town? I agree with your quick analysis if I were Mafia. But your insinuation is that I would've done differently as town.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #816 on: June 03, 2012, 10:38:08 pm »

My views:

Possibility 1: Galzria is mafia (30%)
He tried the self-vote-zomg-I'm-insane-route to try to deflect voters
Possibility 2: Galzria is vanilla townie (65%)
He honestly believes townie lynch is better than no lynch. He thinks me and J are mafia partners and that him dying will lead to our lynchings, good for the town. Problem: Me and J aren't mafia partners
Possibility 3: Galzria is a power role
We're f*****

Essentially, this is correct analysis to me.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #817 on: June 03, 2012, 10:39:06 pm »

Tell you what I see. J's sweating things slipping away when a townie was SO CLOSE.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #818 on: June 03, 2012, 10:40:18 pm »

All right folks - any chance of having some discussion of where we go from here?  I know we theoretically have 4.5 hours, but those of us on Eastern time have things like jobs in the morning - and if I'm going to stay up until 3 am, I'd like to have a better excuse than "I was hitting F5 on my browser waiting to see if someone would get lynched"
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #819 on: June 03, 2012, 10:40:33 pm »

Tell you what I see. J's sweating things slipping away when a townie was SO CLOSE.

me too though, Right? i must be glad my mafia partner just barely didn't get lynched, partially due to my campaigning against it.

Robz must be so proud of - oops, crap.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #820 on: June 03, 2012, 10:41:34 pm »

@C.F. Because I honestly don't enjoy being myself (conviction to the point of stubbornness), being begged by everybody to concede SOME, doing so, and then being attacked for it. Wrong of me? Sure. But I was pissed about that. I also unvoted very shortly after that, and (if) I die now, at least I do so with my vote where it belongs: beside my convictions I never should've left.

Aside: you could cool off a bit by making a post over in the Resistance thread.  It's nice and chill in there. :P

Haven't reviewed yet, but I will soon.  I think we might end up in no lynch.  I don't think no lynch is THAT terrible.  The scenario you gave is extremely simplified, not counting in the possible effects of power roles.  Not only that, but if we end up no-lynching twice it offsets the issue you presented, doesn't it?

Possibility 3: Galzria is a power role
We're f*****

Maybe he survives and pulls a TINAS-style SUPER COP.  I would seriously love that.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #821 on: June 03, 2012, 10:42:05 pm »

Tell you what I see. J's sweating things slipping away when a townie was SO CLOSE.

me too though, Right? i must be glad my mafia partner just barely didn't get lynched, partially due to my campaigning against it.

Robz must be so proud of - oops, crap.

Huh?
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #822 on: June 03, 2012, 10:42:50 pm »

All right folks - any chance of having some discussion of where we go from here?  I know we theoretically have 4.5 hours, but those of us on Eastern time have things like jobs in the morning - and if I'm going to stay up until 3 am, I'd like to have a better excuse than "I was hitting F5 on my browser waiting to see if someone would get lynched"

I think we have to lynch Galzria. Either he's mafia, or he's townie and I broke him (sorry!)
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #823 on: June 03, 2012, 10:43:14 pm »

I'm really really torn. I agree with jo that Galz could be changing up his playstyle this game. I agree with C_F (ok and probably everyone else) that voting for himself was crazy. Really crazy if he's a townie and pretty crazy but extremely calculated if he's mafia. It seems to me like Galzria is a very calculating guy (unvoting for himself with 6 votes looks very calculating). But he's looking pretty crazy right now. Ruse?

I'm having trouble convincing myself that there are no mafia on this bandwagon at all. But that is a question better left answered after we find out his role.

I'm not sure that he is mafia, but that is looking more likely. I expect this lynch could really shake things up. I'm still not sure I suspect him more than *everyone* else in this game, but I'm also not comfortable with a no lynch. I really don't see this going in any other direction, so I'm gonna plug my nose and swallow this pill.

Vote: Galzria
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #824 on: June 03, 2012, 10:43:29 pm »

@Galz If your town, either you wanted to teach us a lesson to ensure that I would be lynched Day 2 when you flipped. You were the one who kept saying in MII that essentially, we could only trust the dead. OR, the flipped his shit thing still applies. No judgement.

The first one is unlikely to me, because you did unvote yourself. If you had rationally settled on self-sacrifice as the best course of action, you would have stuck with it. You've at least proven yourself good at sticking with things.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #825 on: June 03, 2012, 10:43:40 pm »

Tell you what I see. J's sweating things slipping away when a townie was SO CLOSE.

me too though, Right? i must be glad my mafia partner just barely didn't get lynched, partially due to my campaigning against it.

Robz must be so proud of - oops, crap.

Huh?

I was making a joke
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #826 on: June 03, 2012, 10:43:45 pm »

And we have GOT to something about def.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #827 on: June 03, 2012, 10:44:47 pm »

eHalcyon: yes, a dual-no lynch offsets it, but generally as 1 no lynch is bad, 2 is terrible. I don't remember the official term, but its something like "town is so scared to lynch, they play themselves to death waiting"
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #828 on: June 03, 2012, 10:45:27 pm »

Dsell, I'm just curious, what happened to your suspicion of me?

(I ask because your conviction that I was the mafia seems a little opportunistic to me if you are no longer prepared to argue for it when the town has mostly moved on to other suspects. I haven't forgotten, of course. Or perhaps you no longer suspect me so intensely.)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #829 on: June 03, 2012, 10:46:07 pm »

jotheonah (3 votes)
- yuma
- Morgrim
- Galzria

Eevee (1 vote)
- Robz

Galzria (5 votes)
- eHalcyon
- O
- jotheonah
- Eevee
- Captain_Frisk
-Dsell

Not voted: def, Voltgloss, michaeljb

Robz, it's probably time for you to hammer, if you're there. Volt/michael will probably get there eventually, but maybe not. Def is gone, and no way is morgrim hammering Galz.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #830 on: June 03, 2012, 10:47:49 pm »

Robz won't hammer. He's either ok with the no lynch and thinks Galz is town or he's mafia trying to keep his hands clean and knows Galz is town. Either way, he ain't hammering.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #831 on: June 03, 2012, 10:48:18 pm »

I'm fine with that Dsell. Just look awfully close at the accusations I've made, the reasons I've given, and who has been campaigning this way for pages now. (btw, O said himself he planned on this day 2. (This being going after a townie))
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #832 on: June 03, 2012, 10:48:28 pm »

Robz won't hammer. He's either ok with the no lynch and thinks Galz is town or he's mafia trying to keep his hands clean and knows Galz is town. Either way, he ain't hammering.

That's why I'm pressuring him into hammering, silly  ;)
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #833 on: June 03, 2012, 10:49:56 pm »

Dsell, I'm just curious, what happened to your suspicion of me?

(I ask because your conviction that I was the mafia seems a little opportunistic to me if you are no longer prepared to argue for it when the town has mostly moved on to other suspects. I haven't forgotten, of course. Or perhaps you no longer suspect me so intensely.)

I still suspect you and I had considered writing one more post about it trying to get some support. But come on, that wasn't going to happen. And I think that there is a real chance Galz is mafia. And that chance is worth a vote to move us forward.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #834 on: June 03, 2012, 10:50:02 pm »

For those of you curious I DID ping def at June 02, 2012, 11:01:14 pm dominion strategy server time. This means he has until tomorrow 11:01:14pm server time before I open up his slot for replacements.  unfortunate that it falls during a guaranteed portion of the game night, but thats the way the cookie crumbles

He has not logged on since June 1 mid day though so he hasn't seen the ping or anything here
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #835 on: June 03, 2012, 10:55:59 pm »

For those of you curious I DID ping def at June 02, 2012, 11:01:14 pm dominion strategy server time. This means he has until tomorrow 11:01:14pm server time before I open up his slot for replacements.  unfortunate that it falls during a guaranteed portion of the game night, but thats the way the cookie crumbles

He has not logged on since June 1 mid day though so he hasn't seen the ping or anything here


I hope he's ok, but his profile time zone says Berlin... so he should be soundly asleep at this time.  We won't hear from him until right before end of day - if at all.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #836 on: June 03, 2012, 11:01:31 pm »

eHalcyon: yes, a dual-no lynch offsets it, but generally as 1 no lynch is bad, 2 is terrible. I don't remember the official term, but its something like "town is so scared to lynch, they play themselves to death waiting"

Fair enough.  But we've got a fairly big town, and hopefully some decent power townies.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #837 on: June 03, 2012, 11:07:07 pm »

I'm here, and should be able to check in and post pretty frequently the rest of the night.

However, I must confess that at the moment I don't really plan to vote for Galzria. I am open to being persuaded, but I am in no hurry to cast the pen-ultimate or ultimate vote for someone whom I still think is perhaps town.

I understand the arguments on both sides. Here's my thing. I played carelessly early on this round. Dsell caught on to it immediately, and before I knew it I was labelled this unhelpful townie who was nasty and acting suspiciously, and I was being bandwagoned, and I really thought I was going to die. Honestly, the thought of self-hammering crossed my mind. When votes pile up against you, you would be shocked the crazy things that run through your head.

So for me, there is a narrative where by what is happening to Galzria is what happened to me, times ten. He got a little too worked up, said some careless things, and now he is in this sort of feedback loop of suspicion and insanity. He's just a misguided townie.

However, I very much see the other side of it. Yes he could be playing me, by trying to be so crazy. He insists on lynching, even if it's a townie. That's the big warning sign to me, because that's pro-mafia behavior, no matter what his role is. And I didn't at all like his certainty that we should kill Jo. There are reasons I am suspicious of Jo's roleclaim--and I think we should revisit them next round depending on what happens in the night--but for now what choice do we have but to believe it? And he still wanted to kill Jo. Was CERTAIN.

I know that I am known for strong opinions. Well, I had strong opinions in MII because I was mafia. But hey, I had strong opinions in M1, and I was a good guy. Sorry guys, I'm lost right now. I lean toward thinking Galzria is town, and I don't want to kill a townie. I also lean toward thinking Jo is what he says. There is no guarantee that I will change my mind in the next few hours. Can you understand that?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #838 on: June 03, 2012, 11:08:56 pm »

You don't need to think that Galzria is guaranteed mafia. You need to think that there's at least a 1/12 chance that he's mafia (1/10 if you want to be super sure) to vote, since you agreed a random/policy lynch is better than a no lynch.

I find it hard to believe that you really doubt Galzria is mafia more than 90%.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #839 on: June 03, 2012, 11:12:10 pm »

So Rob - you are still advocating no-lynch? 

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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #840 on: June 03, 2012, 11:13:25 pm »

Robz, what was your feeling on Galzria when he was staunchly defending you, before he voted for you?  I may have missed it but I don't remember you really addressing it.  No "thanks for trusting me" or "good read".  No "I'm grateful but why are you so sure I'm town?"  I would find it rather bewildering if I were in the position you were in and someone was putting so much into defending me.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #841 on: June 03, 2012, 11:15:08 pm »

I'm going to bed soon. But it occurs to me that if we do end up with no lynch, I could go ahead and use my vig on Galz? Just thought I'd float that as an option, since it would offset the No Lynch numbers problem. It's still probably better to save it, but since I am convinced Galz is mafia, I have no qualms with it.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #842 on: June 03, 2012, 11:16:19 pm »

I still can't wrap my head around WHY the ONLY response about J's roleclaim being genuine is "because he did it". I'm sorry. How many times have I said that while I have convictions, and say I'm certain, I'm willing to listen to good reason? But NOBODY will answer that. His claim was equally likely as Mafia, so WHY has it aquitted him?
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #843 on: June 03, 2012, 11:16:42 pm »

The problem is, if we don't lynch Galz and he doesn't die in the night (hint: he won't, way too suspicious for mafia to keep around) we are still left in this same rut. Wondering if he is mafia. Where do we go day 2? Robz, you say we have gotten a lot of information from day 1. I agree, but specifically what do you mean that we can use to make a more informed decision on day 2? I feel like lynching Galz will get us the first REAL piece of info in this game, which we could really use. I'm somewhat confused too. But I think that it is likely enough that he is mafia that it is worth the risk of lynching a townie.

Positive:
Real information
Extra inferred information (who voted, when, etc)
Chance of lynching mafia

Negative:
Chance of lynching town (possibly higher chance than lynching mafia)
I'm not sure??

Can anyone add to that list?
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #844 on: June 03, 2012, 11:18:26 pm »

OK, I can not take this anymore. Vote: Galzria even though I know you are town. Sorry Galz. Truly, I am.
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I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #845 on: June 03, 2012, 11:19:26 pm »

I still can't wrap my head around WHY the ONLY response about J's roleclaim being genuine is "because he did it". I'm sorry. How many times have I said that while I have convictions, and say I'm certain, I'm willing to listen to good reason? But NOBODY will answer that. His claim was equally likely as Mafia, so WHY has it aquitted him?

There are cops. There are investigators. There is role after role after role that will now be directed at J. So instead of risking killing a power-townie, we investigate them instead.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #846 on: June 03, 2012, 11:19:55 pm »

aaannnnd Galz is hammered.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #847 on: June 03, 2012, 11:20:09 pm »

Haha, no problem M. It's the right choice for town, even though I'm town as well. No hard feelings.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #848 on: June 03, 2012, 11:23:17 pm »

So Rob - you are still advocating no-lynch?

Uh, not exactly. I did vote for someone. I voted for Eevee. The two other people with any votes are Jo and Galz. I'm quite sure lynching Jo is worse than lynching no one, because I am more inclined to believe his claim than disbelieve it. And I'm still more convinced the Galz is not mafia than mafia. So why should I prefer that he die?

I guess if this is going to happen anyway and I am just delaying it, I don't mind casting the vote, I suppose. I'm just not at all convinced that Galz dying is better than no one dying. Do you understand that? I'm trying to approach this rationally.

Robz, what was your feeling on Galzria when he was staunchly defending you, before he voted for you?  I may have missed it but I don't remember you really addressing it.  No "thanks for trusting me" or "good read".  No "I'm grateful but why are you so sure I'm town?"  I would find it rather bewildering if I were in the position you were in and someone was putting so much into defending me.

I thought that because we had been co-mafia together, he had picked up on the fact that I wasn't mafia, and that's why he was so convinced. This was before, when all he was saying is "Robz probably isn't mafia, Jo probably isn't mafia." Eventually it became a little crazier: "Robz is ABSOLUTELY not mafia, Jo is ABSOLUTELY mafia." At that point I did start pushing back against the second half of it.

I had just the slightest, slightest worry that Galz was boldly coming to my defense because he was a mafia trying to win my trust. But honestly, I needed the support back then, and it seemed like "he knows I'm innocent because he knows me better than anyone else," seemed like a justifable explanation.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #849 on: June 03, 2012, 11:23:59 pm »

Now nothing left to do but survive the night. Protector roles, my life is likely in your hands. Though I will say on record that I won't use my power this night.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #850 on: June 03, 2012, 11:24:20 pm »

Robz, the thing is, its pretty much 0% Galzria would have almost self-hammered rather than claimed if he was a power townie so that already makes him a better-than-random target. I dont think anyone is SURE Galzria is scum (majority of us are townies after all), but given randomlynch>nolynch and the fact that his behaviour looks so irrational for a clean person, I'm feeling pretty good about having my vote on him (first time in this game I might add).
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #851 on: June 03, 2012, 11:25:22 pm »

That is dead on why Robz. SO, if you turn out to have played me, /applause. But I believe you're town. Even now.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #852 on: June 03, 2012, 11:26:09 pm »

Now nothing left to do but survive the night. Protector roles, my life is likely in your hands. Though I will say on record that I won't use my power this night.

But if you DO use your power, we could verify your claim at least. Minus a serial killer and some other problems.

That is dead on why Robz. SO, if you turn out to have played me, /applause. But I believe you're town. Even now.

And I you.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #853 on: June 03, 2012, 11:26:13 pm »

I'm at 7 now Eevee, and town.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #854 on: June 03, 2012, 11:27:00 pm »

Is that really 7? Ah, I see that it is. O, you listed 6 people but wrote 5 votes next to Galzria. Confused me.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #855 on: June 03, 2012, 11:27:47 pm »

oh typing on ipad (while playing poker) is sooo slow, i guess my last post became unnecessary.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #856 on: June 03, 2012, 11:27:58 pm »

Assuming Galz is town (he has no reason to continue to claim town after death...):

Town: Really think about the implications of his townness overnight. Don't take this time off so much...reread and analyze motivations, look at who was really really for lynching him and who was really really against it (I guess no one really?). Let's try to go into day 2 with cooler heads and confidence knowing that we have SOMETHING real to go on and analyze for once.

Galzria: Why were you crazy? :'(
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #857 on: June 03, 2012, 11:28:13 pm »

Confused me at first too Robz. Didn't feel like correcting. Glad you noticed.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #858 on: June 03, 2012, 11:28:52 pm »

And Protective Roles.... think logically. Protect the most likely targets, please.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #859 on: June 03, 2012, 11:29:24 pm »

And Protective Roles.... think logically. Protect the most likely targets, please.

Yes. This. For once, I really really agree with Robz. XD
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #860 on: June 03, 2012, 11:29:43 pm »

Because a lynch HAD to happen, I WASN'T a power role, and there is a LOT to be gained from looking st what I said, and who went after me and why.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #861 on: June 03, 2012, 11:32:59 pm »

Notice I "snapped" at a 3-3-3 vote (none on me). To protect unknown powers, and since I couldn't convince to lynch J today, I - wait - HAD CONVICTION about needing a lynch, even a known townie. Even me.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #862 on: June 03, 2012, 11:33:12 pm »

In before thread lock - i started doing some thinking about the situations of whether Galz was or was not Mafia, and then when I got ready to post it, it looks like Galz was hammered....  this was written before I saw the hammer fall.

In the event that I'm night killed - here are my thoughts:

Option A:
Galzria is town.  There is probably at least 1 mafia voting for him currently.  I would expect them to not put all 3 on one side of the vote / no vote line.  I would expect 2, but they would probably be happy to accomplish it with only 1.


Here I'm vaguely suspicious of:

eHalcyon - who to date has been pretty quiet - yet he jumped in at just the right time to fire us up while we're all in a frenzy to make sure we don't no-lynch.
jotheona - when Galzria wasn't raging - some of his points made sense.  I REALLY don't like the roleclaim.

DSell - for the reasons that others have pointed out in the past.  Not a strong suspicious
O - Crazy.  I don't see myself ever not suspecting O - but he's too crazy for me to feel confident about anything he says.

Option B:
Galzria is mafia.  It seems unlikely that other mafia would vote for him, but maybe 1 would just a hedge?
Galzria clearly won't vote for himself.

That leaves potential mafia as
def, Voltgloss, michaeljb, yuma, morgrim, RobZ

RobZ's refusal to vote is interesting and it was interesting how strongly Galzria defended him earlier - although this seemed strange - vs. explicitly mafia.

The others I don't have much of a read on - morgrim is morgrim, yuma has been quiet.  Volt and Michael have been neutral in my mind - which I guess is a mafia thing to do?

Rob has basically as good as said he's not voting.

Option C:
Galzria is serial killer - this could be an excuse for his behavior.  It wouldn't be mafia - but the mafia would probably want to keep him around because he's so suspicious, so he can last longer killing folks at night.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #863 on: June 03, 2012, 11:34:01 pm »

Is that really 7? Ah, I see that it is. O, you listed 6 people but wrote 5 votes next to Galzria. Confused me.

I copied-pasted the list and moved Dsells name without changing numbers, sorry.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #864 on: June 03, 2012, 11:34:13 pm »

Now nothing left to do but survive the night. Protector roles, my life is likely in your hands. Though I will say on record that I won't use my power this night.

I disagree with this.  You're still suspicious; the Mafia is unlikely to target you.  If there is a doctor around, I think they could do more good elsewhere.  As for a jailkeeper... I suppose you don't intend to use your claimed power tonight?  The problem then is, did you just not use it or did you not have it to begin with?  But if you use it you might hit another townie.

It's a difficult problem.  If you are what you say you are, I have no idea what the best move would be in your shoes.
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #865 on: June 03, 2012, 11:34:36 pm »

I just now caught up, and was thinking Morgrim's vote was #6, and that's your fault, O! In your recent vote count post it says 5 votes, but then lists 6. Since I didn't read fast enough to vote, I suppose it doesn't really matter, but I'm going to weigh in with some thoughts anyway.

The thing about Galz that bugs me the most was the self-vote, oh-wait-I-can-be-hammered-now-so-nevermind. After all his conviction and standing by it, and pointing that behavior out, this self vote was a little nuts--of course there was quite a bit of pressure on him, could have snapped and table-flipped, guess we'll find out soon. FWIW I was leaning towards voting Galz, but was hoping for a bit more time. (also how this all played out definitely reminds me of Volt warning how quick bandwagons could fill up--it was quite a turn around from 3-3-3 to hammering not one of those three...)

Morgrim delivering the hammer while saying he's sure Galz is town is definitely very suspicious to me, and he hasn't really done anything to remove my earlier suspicion.

Still somewhat suspicious of jonah, but with a roleclaim it does make sense that lynching him would be the wrong move, hopefully something happens backing up that roleclaim.

Those were the three that were the most on my radar, but I'm gonna add I'm a little upset at def for his inactivity...his last post here coming May 31, and if you check his profile he did post in the forum on June 1. Oh well.

pre-post edit: and jeez, 17 new replies while I'm typing this? dang.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #866 on: June 03, 2012, 11:34:52 pm »

Now nothing left to do but survive the night. Protector roles, my life is likely in your hands. Though I will say on record that I won't use my power this night.

I disagree with this.  You're still suspicious; the Mafia is unlikely to target you.  If there is a doctor around, I think they could do more good elsewhere.  As for a jailkeeper... I suppose you don't intend to use your claimed power tonight?  The problem then is, did you just not use it or did you not have it to begin with?  But if you use it you might hit another townie.

It's a difficult problem.  If you are what you say you are, I have no idea what the best move would be in your shoes.

He could kill himself and disprove Galzria?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #867 on: June 03, 2012, 11:36:03 pm »

I believe the information is all out on the table now to produce a town win. Don't waste my death, and don't be hoodwinked by the Mafia. I'll be rooting for you.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #868 on: June 03, 2012, 11:37:14 pm »

eHalcyon - who to date has been pretty quiet - yet he jumped in at just the right time to fire us up while we're all in a frenzy to make sure we don't no-lynch.

I have not been quiet, and I've been present the entire time.  If I wanted to ensure a no lynch, why would I start in on someone who had 0 votes?  In the end, I thought we were going to end up in no-lynch territory and I stated that I was fine with it.  In fact, I discussed with Galzria about why I thought no lynch would be fine, vs. his notion that it was better to lynch townie than none.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #869 on: June 03, 2012, 11:38:31 pm »

To clarify -- I've been around all through the early game.  I was gone most of yesterday and also this morning, but I gave advanced warning.  When I returned, I caught up and addressed the discussion made so far.

For better or worse, I've been far more active than many others.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #870 on: June 03, 2012, 11:39:27 pm »

Now nothing left to do but survive the night. Protector roles, my life is likely in your hands. Though I will say on record that I won't use my power this night.

I disagree with this.  You're still suspicious; the Mafia is unlikely to target you.  If there is a doctor around, I think they could do more good elsewhere.  As for a jailkeeper... I suppose you don't intend to use your claimed power tonight?  The problem then is, did you just not use it or did you not have it to begin with?  But if you use it you might hit another townie.

It's a difficult problem.  If you are what you say you are, I have no idea what the best move would be in your shoes.

He could kill himself and disprove Galzria?

Can Vigilante actually target himself?  :o

Even if he can, doesn't seem like a good move.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #871 on: June 03, 2012, 11:41:01 pm »

OMG YOU CAN'T LYNCH ME I HAVE TO SUICIDE.
uh... no.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #872 on: June 03, 2012, 11:41:49 pm »

My reasons (again, and for reference) are posts #860, & 861.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #873 on: June 03, 2012, 11:41:55 pm »

I believe the information is all out on the table now to produce a town win. Don't waste my death, and don't be hoodwinked by the Mafia. I'll be rooting for you.

I believe he's trying to tell you all to lynch me and J, just sayin'.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #874 on: June 03, 2012, 11:42:46 pm »

Gaah.... I am back and exhausted after a long drive.

I skimmed over the soooo many new pages to read. I don't have much of substance to add at this point because 1. I am exhausted and 2. I only skimmed over the reading.

I am not even going to try to read everything and get a substantive post before the lock. I am tired. The only thing I have to say echos eHalcyon. I would like jotheonah to try to use his power, but the decision is his. I don't fully understand these roles and the possible repercussions for using them, but if jotheonah really is this power role I think he would understand best when to use it. But not using it doesn't help us trust you any more.

I'll see you all after the night.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #875 on: June 03, 2012, 11:44:19 pm »

And would the people like to suggest whom I should use my power ON? Cause firing it blindly is ... not protown.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #876 on: June 03, 2012, 11:44:56 pm »

Can we get a result on def to remove an easy night kill target? There would be NO added suspicion for the town to gain info from based on his death.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #877 on: June 03, 2012, 11:45:56 pm »

And would the people like to suggest whom I should use my power ON? Cause firing it blindly is ... not protown.

I'd like you to flip a coin. Heads, Captain Frisk, Tails, O.

Killing someone whose going to get lynched anyways (because people tend to believe Galzria for some reason) is good townie strategy.
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #878 on: June 03, 2012, 11:46:02 pm »

Seems to me like the thing to do is use it on someone you think is mafia...trying to get the town's approval is basically like just getting two lynches, which is a lot better further into the game when the town actually has new info. disclaimer - never played a game with a vigilante before
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #879 on: June 03, 2012, 11:46:40 pm »

What I mean, is that Mafia targeting him would be HIGHLY unfair to the town, as they can't make any case as to WHY, because def was not present.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #880 on: June 03, 2012, 11:47:40 pm »

*post-post edit, the above was for jonah in case it wasn't clear. Thought I could get away without using quotes, but nope, this thread is just too busy :P
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #881 on: June 03, 2012, 11:47:48 pm »

And would the people like to suggest whom I should use my power ON? Cause firing it blindly is ... not protown.

I'd like you to flip a coin. Heads, Captain Frisk, Tails, O.

Killing someone whose going to get lynched anyways (because people tend to believe Galzria for some reason) is good townie strategy.

Nice redirect.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #882 on: June 03, 2012, 11:48:45 pm »

What I mean, is that Mafia targeting him would be HIGHLY unfair to the town, as they can't make any case as to WHY, because def was not present.

That would be the reason for the Mafia targeting him.  Take out the targets that aren't suspicious, let the town fight itself to death.  Who else isn't suspicious?  michaeljb has drawn pretty much no fire at all.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #883 on: June 03, 2012, 11:49:28 pm »

What I mean, is that Mafia targeting him would be HIGHLY unfair to the town, as they can't make any case as to WHY, because def was not present.

That would be the reason for the Mafia targeting him.  Take out the targets that aren't suspicious, let the town fight itself to death.  Who else isn't suspicious?  michaeljb has drawn pretty much no fire at all.

I think yuma didn't have any accusations leveled at him either?
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #884 on: June 03, 2012, 11:49:46 pm »

O, i'm trying to envision the scenario where you turn up dead in the morning and I say "Yep, killed O cause he told me to, you guys all believe and like me now, right?" Will people really be happy with that outcome? Will O?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #885 on: June 03, 2012, 11:50:42 pm »

And would the people like to suggest whom I should use my power ON? Cause firing it blindly is ... not protown.

I'd like you to flip a coin. Heads, Captain Frisk, Tails, O.

Killing someone whose going to get lynched anyways (because people tend to believe Galzria for some reason) is good townie strategy.

Nice redirect.

What do you mean redirect?




O, i'm trying to envision the scenario where you turn up dead in the morning and I say "Yep, killed O cause he told me to, you guys all believe and like me now, right?" Will people really be happy with that outcome? Will O?

lol.. I suppose that's true. But if its really really really certain I'm lynched next night, you killing me early just advances the town's progress.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #886 on: June 03, 2012, 11:52:20 pm »

@e,, yes exactly. The Mafia have reason to take him out, which is highly unfair to town because he has not been present. If they hit someone else with few posts, or light posting, fine. But up until this point, def has not been a part of this game. Why should Mafia get a free night kill with no possible consequences?
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Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #887 on: June 03, 2012, 11:52:53 pm »

Somehow I see me more than you, O. But I'd like at least a chance of hitting mafia. Plus for some reason I can't put my finger on I like having you around.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #888 on: June 03, 2012, 11:53:09 pm »

What I mean, is that Mafia targeting him would be HIGHLY unfair to the town, as they can't make any case as to WHY, because def was not present.

That would be the reason for the Mafia targeting him.  Take out the targets that aren't suspicious, let the town fight itself to death.  Who else isn't suspicious?  michaeljb has drawn pretty much no fire at all.

I think yuma didn't have any accusations leveled at him either?

Yeah, I think that's true. Don't remember whether I ever mentioned it, but I am a little wary of him, since he labeled me as not suspicious--struck me as possible mafia play trying to get chummy with the town, but of course that itself is not much to go on.

The most fire I remember me drawing was Robz mentioning that I made a lot of silly posts early on and was too defensive in a post or something.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #889 on: June 03, 2012, 11:53:35 pm »

O, i'm trying to envision the scenario where you turn up dead in the morning and I say "Yep, killed O cause he told me to, you guys all believe and like me now, right?" Will people really be happy with that outcome? Will O?

You could take his suggestion and leave it to chance.  But don't use coin flip.  For impartiality, you can use this:

When this thread is locked, use the last digit of the time stamp on Insomniac's post.  Odd for O, even for Captain_Frisk.

But I feel like Captain_Frisk has flown under the radar too... I don't know why O has put himself and CF up.  Bold play, whatever he is.  Curious how CF feels about it though.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #890 on: June 03, 2012, 11:54:40 pm »

Somehow I see me more than you, O. But I'd like at least a chance of hitting mafia. Plus for some reason I can't put my finger on I like having you around.

Gotta say, O makes things interesting.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #891 on: June 03, 2012, 11:54:49 pm »

Somehow I see me more than you, O. But I'd like at least a chance of hitting mafia. Plus for some reason I can't put my finger on I like having you around.

You mean because when I'm around you're chances of being lynched decrease?  ;D
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #892 on: June 03, 2012, 11:55:12 pm »

your* and damn right I make things interesting.

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #893 on: June 03, 2012, 11:58:44 pm »

Jo, if you are going to use your power, I would recommend picking one of the people flying slightly--but not totally--under the radar, and betting one of them is mafia. Don't know what else to tell you.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #894 on: June 03, 2012, 11:58:57 pm »

At risk of getting locked before an answer -- O, why did you nominate CF to be your roulette buddy?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #895 on: June 03, 2012, 11:59:17 pm »

Longest twilight ever.

eHalycon, if I follow your advice and I end up killing town, I've (1) wasted my power and (2) killed a townie. I HAVE proved my claim, but the proof is near-worthless since once the bullet goes off I'm just a VT.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #896 on: June 04, 2012, 12:00:11 am »

At risk of getting locked before an answer -- O, why did you nominate CF to be your roulette buddy?

Because I'm suspicious of him, he makes too many logical and clearheaded posts.

You'd think I'm joking, but that's my real reason.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #897 on: June 04, 2012, 12:00:54 am »

Amongst your shelter the 13 of you start to talk amongst yourselves about whom killed Insomniac. The discussion gets quite fierce until eHalcyon starts a charge against Galzria it all makes sense now he needed copper the most of any of you! Joining him are O, jotheonah, Eevee, Captain_Frisk, Dsell and Morgrim7. As they storm over to Galzria's box in the shelter they notice him standing over a barrel fire. They tell Galzria "WE DEMAND YOUR DEATH FOR WHAT YOU DID TO INSOMNIAC YOU MUST HAVE STOLE HIS COPPER!". Rather sheepishly they look around to see if any of them remembered the stick they lynch with. Luckily Morgrim7 had he was cooking a marhsmellow over Galzria's barrel fire. Using the stick (marshmellow still attached) the 7 lynch Galzria. Once Galzria is done you search his pockets for the shelter card. Upon reading the shelter card you realize that Galzria was from this very shelter!

Galzria the vanilla townie is dead.

Night has begun. Day 2 will begin at approximately 9:00pm PDT, day 2 will have an extended 8 day deadline. The thread is now locked
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Re: Mafia III: REPLACEMENT NEEDED! ( NIGHT 1)
« Reply #898 on: June 04, 2012, 10:36:26 pm »

night one will be extended until a replacement is found for def or def returns. Sorry for any inconvinience
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #899 on: June 05, 2012, 11:38:27 pm »

Sleepily you all wake up in your shelter, the damn wind must have blown over your boxes three times last night, well they dont make boxes like the used to  do they. Slowly you remember that you lynched one of your own last night, poor Galzria if only he had just made it more clear he was one of you. You notice that def is no where to be found, but Axxle has shown up out of the blue, wierd.

As you do your morning check to see whom made it through the night, you start tallying down that everyones here and then you notice that ROBZ888 has been murdered, but how could he have...why would...You're thoughts are interrupted as you hear a scream from across the way. You all make haste towards the source of the scream and you notice that Captain_Frisk has also just been murdered.



ROBZ888 the vanilla townie, and Captain_Frisk the vanilla townie are both dead
Day 2 has begun


VOTE COUNT 2-1

Not voting (10) - O, Axxle, Dsell, Morgrim7, Eevee, michaeljb, jotheonah, Voltgloss, eHalcyon, yuma

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #900 on: June 05, 2012, 11:43:17 pm »

Well... I guess jo was telling the truth.  Or he's a serial killer.  :(
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #901 on: June 05, 2012, 11:43:56 pm »

Axxle replaces def?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #902 on: June 05, 2012, 11:44:09 pm »

@jotheonah, did you use your one-time kill? I think the first order of business is to try to make sense of these kills. I don't really understand them.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #903 on: June 05, 2012, 11:47:11 pm »

@jotheonah, did you use your one-time kill? I think the first order of business is to try to make sense of these kills. I don't really understand them.

O suggested jo use his one-shot kill on Captain_Frisk or himself, as determined by coin flip.  For public accountability, I suggested that if he follow O's suggestion that he randomize using the time stamp on Insomniac's thread lock post.  I said odd for O, even for Captain_Frisk.  It was even.

I think this verifies jotheonah as a (now vanilla) townie.  Either that or he is a serial killer.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #904 on: June 05, 2012, 11:50:15 pm »

@jotheonah, did you use your one-time kill? I think the first order of business is to try to make sense of these kills. I don't really understand them.

O suggested jo use his one-shot kill on Captain_Frisk or himself, as determined by coin flip.  For public accountability, I suggested that if he follow O's suggestion that he randomize using the time stamp on Insomniac's thread lock post.  I said odd for O, even for Captain_Frisk.  It was even.

I think this verifies jotheonah as a (now vanilla) townie.  Either that or he is a serial killer.

Unless there is a serial killer! We need to hear from jo, because if he was blocked or chose not to use his role (which would be weird) then we need to know about it.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #905 on: June 05, 2012, 11:52:39 pm »

Unless there is a serial killer! We need to hear from jo, because if he was blocked or chose not to use his role (which would be weird) then we need to know about it.

I thought that if you get blocked, you aren't informed of it...?

But yeah, if he chose not to use it, that would be important to know.

OK, so I guess a big question is why Robz?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #906 on: June 05, 2012, 11:59:01 pm »

Unless there is a serial killer! We need to hear from jo, because if he was blocked or chose not to use his role (which would be weird) then we need to know about it.

I thought that if you get blocked, you aren't informed of it...?

But yeah, if he chose not to use it, that would be important to know.

OK, so I guess a big question is why Robz?

That is my question too. It seems like a very odd choice because I was very suspicious of him (sorry Robz :( ), and I probably would have still been suspicious of him day 2. It could be to throw suspicion on Eevee, or it could even be that the mafia were worried about his strong suspicion of Eevee (i.e. Eevee is mafia).
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #907 on: June 06, 2012, 12:09:25 am »

That is my question too. It seems like a very odd choice because I was very suspicious of him (sorry Robz :( ), and I probably would have still been suspicious of him day 2. It could be to throw suspicion on Eevee, or it could even be that the mafia were worried about his strong suspicion of Eevee (i.e. Eevee is mafia).

Robz wasn't suspicious only of Eevee though.  He was also against you (probably because you were going after him pretty hard) and he also voiced suspicions of Voltgloss and jo.

And of course, there is a huge WIFOM problem.  Maybe Robz suspected none of the Mafia at all and that's why he was targeted, so that suspicion would be cast on those he suspected.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #908 on: June 06, 2012, 12:10:49 am »

I really hate that we are going to be stuck on an even number of players now. Makes it a lot harder to get a majority.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #909 on: June 06, 2012, 12:25:47 am »

Agreed that we need to hear from jotheonah whether he used his power, and if so, upon whom.  I don't see how we can start making sense of these kills until he does. 

Plus, I for one don't feel comfortable voicing my analysis on these kills until after J has publicly declared what he did (or didn't) do during the night.  No offense J, but if you're in fact anti-town, the worst thing for the town right now is for us to blather on along the lines "well if J did this he's probably innocent" and for you to then chime in "yup that's exactly what I did."
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #910 on: June 06, 2012, 01:04:37 am »

I used my nightkill on Captain Frisk, both because of the suggestion to do so and because, during the night, I looked through the record and decided i had sufficient evidence suggesting he was mafia that it was a possibility - it certainly fit into Robz's purview of slightly lurky townies. I'm disappointed that he was town.

I wouldn't have fired the shot just because I was told to do it, but I did think there was a chance he was mafia. I will post my full case against him if it interests people, but I think it's enough to know I was wrong, and I'm sorry to have hurt town. I just hope I at least proved myself to you all.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #911 on: June 06, 2012, 01:13:10 am »

Well ok. For me this clears J.

So the mafia killed Robz. I consider this a good night kill for me, because I think I would have continued to go on that wild goose chase.

The mafia must have either believed that Robz was a power role or wished to make someone else (or a group of others) look innocent or guilty with this kill.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #912 on: June 06, 2012, 01:16:58 am »

This day start caught me off guard! But having given you all the info you needed, from me, I do need to go to bed. I'll chime in on the discussion tomorrow.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #913 on: June 06, 2012, 01:32:15 am »

I almost want to think they killed him because they thought he was a power role. He really doesn't seem like a great strategic choice. However, I think we should go on the assumption that there was strategic motivation because we don't get any information by assuming they were looking for a power role. It's possible the mafia is trying to confuse us.

I think that this kill should either make us much more or much less suspicious of Eevee. Yes, he had other suspects, but Eevee was who he was really gunning for. So either the mafia wanted to nip that suspicion in the bud (which seems like the obvious, not very sneaky play) or they want to validate his suspicions (which seems sneakier but perhaps more likely...I doubt we're working with "obvious" mafia). The first case would make Eevee mafia and the second case would make Eevee town. The mafia could have had other reasons though or they may have been really bluffing and want us to choose one of the above options.

I think all of the above should probably apply to myself to a lesser degree, as well as Voltgloss to an even lesser degree.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #914 on: June 06, 2012, 02:21:27 am »

Cross-posting from mafia IV, where I managed to miss-post this...

well.. 3 of us down. At least somehow we haven't lost a power role yet (unless you count the vigilante's *power*)

I hope I'm somewhat cleared: I did provide for a 50% chance of my own death, which is insane as mafia or SK.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #915 on: June 06, 2012, 02:46:59 am »

Cross-posting from mafia IV, where I managed to miss-post this...

well.. 3 of us down. At least somehow we haven't lost a power role yet (unless you count the vigilante's *power*)

I hope I'm somewhat cleared: I did provide for a 50% chance of my own death, which is insane as mafia or SK.
Equally insane as town though, especially given a higher % of the town left have power roles now.

@Dsell
It really looks like you are trying to make everyone forget what happened between you and Robz yesterday. How does everyone else feel about Dsell's analysis that just starts "well, because I am town, ..."?? Seems to me like you are trying to make everyone assume that before anyone remembers to suspect you.

Too tired to start writing a longer post now.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #916 on: June 06, 2012, 03:27:02 am »

@Dsell
It really looks like you are trying to make everyone forget what happened between you and Robz yesterday. How does everyone else feel about Dsell's analysis that just starts "well, because I am town, ..."?? Seems to me like you are trying to make everyone assume that before anyone remembers to suspect you.

Too tired to start writing a longer post now.

Where did I say this? How am I trying to make everyone forget? I've already mentioned it twice. Yes, I was seriously gunning for Robz yesterday. Yes, I sincerely thought he was mafia. Yes, the fact that he turned up townie should shed some suspicion on me. I get that. But I don't see what I've done to get this much suspicion. If you are merely suspicious because I'm "trying to make everyone forget what happened" well that is just false. If you have other reasons, you should bring them up.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #917 on: June 06, 2012, 03:30:11 am »

Yo!  I've been somewhat following, but now I guess I have to reread it more closely.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #918 on: June 06, 2012, 03:53:48 am »

Yo!  I've been somewhat following, but now I guess I have to reread it more closely.

Sorry about that, we're a talkative bunch.

@Eevee, I wanted Robz dead yesterday, but the mafia have actually done me a big favor by removing him for me. He would have been a complete distraction day 2. Obviously now I see that Robz tunnel vision was just really, really wrong and I was very guilty of being a misguided townie, but that just doesn't translate to good mafia play. Frankly I'm not sure why the mafia chose to kill Robz, because a distracted townie is better than a townie equipped with more information and going back to the drawing board looking for mafia.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #919 on: June 06, 2012, 04:01:43 am »

@Dsell
It really looks like you are trying to make everyone forget what happened between you and Robz yesterday. How does everyone else feel about Dsell's analysis that just starts "well, because I am town, ..."?? Seems to me like you are trying to make everyone assume that before anyone remembers to suspect you.

Too tired to start writing a longer post now.
Where did I say this? How am I trying to make everyone forget? I've already mentioned it twice. Yes, I was seriously gunning for Robz yesterday. Yes, I sincerely thought he was mafia. Yes, the fact that he turned up townie should shed some suspicion on me. I get that. But I don't see what I've done to get this much suspicion. If you are merely suspicious because I'm "trying to make everyone forget what happened" well that is just false. If you have other reasons, you should bring them up.

Maybe I hit send too hastily once again, I just meant to remind the town to take "we should think this of this" posts with a grain of salt. For some reason your choices of words rubbed me the wrong way / sounded too much like guiding town and I got worried of malicious intent. This all should obvious enough though, given we still only know our own roles.

Fwiw, mafia voting someone just to confuse town or to cast suspicion on someone sounds overly complicated to me. Mayyyybe if the mafia was like def, yuma and michaeldb and literally none of them ever got suspected or anything. (Yes, I mean to say that if I was mafia, I would have at least suggested killing Robz. I mean, mafia just wants to survive the day and probably kills people who makes that less likely? Thats how I reason it IRL at least.)

I think our best bet is trying to figure out who has reason to kill Robz and I do realize I'm probably first on that list. That being said, I know I'm clean so turning my sights to the second on that list. Maybe I should reread some of the stuff Robz wrote, I recall him being suspicious of me, Dsell and Volt as was alredy noted.

I still cant fathom Volt being mafia given how helpful he is (this might be a dangerious assumption though, I guess you only have to play one game when someone just completely fools everyone as mafia to not think like this but I yet havent) so I guess I am most suspicious of Dsell. (Dont even mean this as an accusation post you'd have to answer Dsell, merely telling people my thoughts). I just realized I probably wont be able to post for 15 hours so decided to postpone sleeps to get this in, zzz now.

.. oh you posted something @that:
Maybe Robz was right about stuff and mafia got scared? Have to read his posts again sometime tomorrow.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #920 on: June 06, 2012, 07:31:06 am »

Rereading Robz and CF's posts is definitely a good idea. And we also have access to two bandwagons with confirmed town as their targets. So we start the day with a lot of info. Just a matter of when we have time to look at it.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #921 on: June 06, 2012, 09:33:49 am »

I will post my full case against him if it interests people, but I think it's enough to know I was wrong, and I'm sorry to have hurt town.

J, I would be interested to hear your full case against Captain_Frisk.  Thanks.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #922 on: June 06, 2012, 10:14:52 am »

Here you go, V. I had it all ready to go. Figured I should be accountable no matter how he flipped.

Looking through Day 1, CF consistently stayed off most people's radars, yet he voted early and often. It's easy to get the vibe, looking through his posts, of a mafia fishing around for a vote that would stick.

191 - Early vote, but chose the most talkative town member? interesting pick, since the most talkative town is someone the mafia would want gone.
251 - joined Morgrim bandwagon
332 - votes me, pretty easily
388 - pops in after a long absence pretty much to remind us he's here, remind us of the deadline (kind of a VOTE VOTE VOTE vibe)
393 - votes AGAIN, for Robz
then he digs in for a long time on Robz, during which he looks like a possible wagon. Then he fades into the background/AFK until
611 - joins the Galzria wagon
743 - digs in even more on Galz, for not good reasons
747 -
At this point, I'm willing to vote for any of robs, galzria, or j, and will monitor the situation as evening progresses. 
he says this, which is pretty scummy
783 - he actually votes Galzria, and with a lot of scummy reservations and hedging about how he could be wrong

So what does all this prove? It proves I'm pretty bad at scumhunting, I'm afraid. My case against CF made SENSE. It was advocated, at various times, by O, Robz, and eHalycon, so I didn't feel like I was being a total maverick. But it turned out to be wrong. As did my case against Galzria. So you guys will understand if I hesitate to take the lead in today's accusations.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #923 on: June 06, 2012, 10:48:27 am »

Man that was a lot reading. In an attempt to catch up with everything I put this together. It is a list of everyone that voted and the order that they voted.

Captain Frisk: 1Galzria; 5mogrim7; 11jotheonah; 14Robz; 34Galzria
Eevee: 2yuma; 33Galzria;
michaeljb: 3yuma; 20jotheonah
O: 4morgrim7; 16Eevee; 30Galzria;
Morgrim7: 6def; 9O; 24jotheonah; 37Galzria
yuma: 7morgrim7; 19jotheonah
jotheonah: 8O; 18def; 22Robz; 27Eevee; 31Galzria;
Galzria: 10O; 15jotheonah; 25 jotheonah; 28Robz; 32Galzria; 35jotheonah
Dsell: 12Robz; 36jotheonah
eHaylcon: 13O; 29:Galzria
Robz: 17Eevee
Voltgloss: 21Robz; 23jotheonah; 26jotheonah;

What I took out of it was this:

1. CFrisk had votes all over the place. Galzria did as well. They are now both dead so I am not sure what this means.
2. Morgrim likes the bandwagons. Aside from his initial "random" vote he jumped on the Robz, Galzria and O trains.
3. Everyone who placed a vote on Eevee already had vote(s) on them. I am not saying their votes lacked suspicion but each one could have also been a deflection vote away from them to Eevee.
4. jotheonah had the most votes cast for him throughout the entire day at 9. Galzria had 8. If jot is town we were lucky to escape with him alive. If he isn't we missed a great opportunity.
5. def didn't vote at all it appears. So I think we need to give Axxle a clean sheet coming in.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #924 on: June 06, 2012, 12:00:55 pm »

Well, I hate beating around the bush when I have solid information so I'll just come out and say it: I am a Town Rolecop: Jotheonah has no role he is lying. That means he is likely a Mafia Goon or a Serial Killer variant that is hidden from role checks.

Vote: Jotheonah
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #925 on: June 06, 2012, 12:11:14 pm »

Here I am preparing a Galzria-length tome on the issues involving jotheonah, and Axxle drops this bomb.

Well.  I will give jotheonah a chance to respond to Axxle before I vote, but this seems pretty damning.  If jotheonah is anti-town, he had every reason to devise a fake roleclaim when it looked like his head was nearing the chopping block.  I'm not immediately seeing any reason why Axxle/def would fakeclaim in this manner under these circumstances.  [By which I mean: if Axxle/def were Mafia, I don't see a need for him to go to such lengths so fast.  There was plenty of reason for the Town to still suspect jotheonah without the Mafia having to go so far as fakeclaiming.]

[Side note:  def's having an investigative role helps put his Day 1 behavior in context, at least up until he actually disappeared.  Didn't he make some comment about not wanting to act without concrete information?  I'll have to go back and check, but if so, his having a role that could GET such information puts that comment in a much more sensible light.]
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #926 on: June 06, 2012, 12:13:54 pm »

Well, this IS unexpected.

I am telling the truth about my role, so I can see two possibilities:

1) Axxle is telling the truth and I read as a Vanilla Townie. Since I'm effectively a Vanilla Townie once I use my kill, the game set up could be set up so that I read that way, too. That seems unlikely to me, but it's possible?

2) Axxle is a very bold mafia, banking on us not having a cop AND a vig.

If Axxle is really a cop, I question the value of his claiming this early without even attempting to get me lynched by some other means. I was one of the most adamant Galzria voters and I vig-killed a townie in the night. I have a role that no longer gives me powers or a reason to be kept alive.  A real cop could have at least attempted to get me lynched on evidence, thus keeping his identity a secret for another day.

On the other hand, this is actually a win-win move for a mafia, bold as it is. If he doesn't get counterclaimed, we (well, you all) believe him. If he DOES get counterclaimed, he's succeeded in outing our cop on Day 2.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #927 on: June 06, 2012, 12:35:56 pm »

1) Axxle is telling the truth and I read as a Vanilla Townie. Since I'm effectively a Vanilla Townie once I use my kill, the game set up could be set up so that I read that way, too. That seems unlikely to me, but it's possible?

Insomniac is this something we can get confirmed. If a VG one-shot, or a one-shot anything, uses the power do they then appear as Town Vanilla? Or is this something else that we are going to be left in the dark about?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #928 on: June 06, 2012, 12:55:04 pm »

1) Axxle is telling the truth and I read as a Vanilla Townie. Since I'm effectively a Vanilla Townie once I use my kill, the game set up could be set up so that I read that way, too. That seems unlikely to me, but it's possible?

Insomniac is this something we can get confirmed. If a VG one-shot, or a one-shot anything, uses the power do they then appear as Town Vanilla? Or is this something else that we are going to be left in the dark about?

Since any amount of digging on the mafia scum wiki will give you the answer, the answer is
"Generally speaking, a Role Cop investigating an X-Shot role will receive the full original role title (e.g. "Two-Shot Vigilante") regardless of how many of those shots have been used."

VOTE COUNT 2-2

jotheonah (1) - Axxle
Not voting (9) - O, Dsell, Morgrim7, Eevee, michaeljb, jotheonah, Voltgloss, eHalcyon, yuma

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch


The deadline is June 13, 2012 11:59pm

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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #929 on: June 06, 2012, 12:57:17 pm »

[Side note:  def's having an investigative role helps put his Day 1 behavior in context, at least up until he actually disappeared.  Didn't he make some comment about not wanting to act without concrete information?  I'll have to go back and check, but if so, his having a role that could GET such information puts that comment in a much more sensible light.]

I have to retract this side note.  I dug back through the thread and found the post I was thinking of - def's #329 - but it didn't say what I vaguely remembered it saying.  My error, and I apologize.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #930 on: June 06, 2012, 12:59:40 pm »

Insomniac's answer gives me enough reason to vote (cool site by the way at mafiascm, I hadn't heard of it)

I now vote:jotheonah

 
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #931 on: June 06, 2012, 01:12:50 pm »

I am waiting to see if anyone counterclaims Axxle before placing my vote. 
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #932 on: June 06, 2012, 01:24:10 pm »

I am waiting to see if anyone counterclaims Axxle before placing my vote.

Maybe they shouldn't though. I've used my power up. Is my life worth outing our actual cop?
A counterclaim would be great for me personally. But it would NOT be good for the town. Axxle's duplicity will be revealed when I flip Vig. The only way to foil his mafia gambit completely is for our real cop to remain hidden for now.

And if Axxle were the actual cop, his out-of-the-gate role claim is not good for the town. This is a very questionable play for an actual cop, without even attempting first to get me lynched without the role claim. In my mind it makes MUCH MORE SENSE as a mafia move.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #933 on: June 06, 2012, 01:40:59 pm »

I am waiting to see if anyone counterclaims Axxle before placing my vote.

Maybe they shouldn't though. I've used my power up. Is my life worth outing our actual cop?
A counterclaim would be great for me personally. But it would NOT be good for the town. Axxle's duplicity will be revealed when I flip Vig. The only way to foil his mafia gambit completely is for our real cop to remain hidden for now.

I'm not saying that I think a town cop necessarily should counterclaim Axxle.  I think whether to do so or not will depend heavily on what information said cop discovered during Night 1. 

What I'm saying is that I don't want to vote until everyone has had an opportunity to counterclaim Axxle and either did or did not take such opportunity.  I can't see how it benefits the Town for a subset of us to ratchet up to 6 votes before the remaining players have had an opportunity to weigh in - particularly if one of those remaining players would have had good reason to counterclaim.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #934 on: June 06, 2012, 01:58:37 pm »

If I was lying about being a cop I wouldn't have used up the lie on J, who supposedly would now be a Vanilla Town if he was telling the truth.  I wouldn't even get a role lynch before I die.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #935 on: June 06, 2012, 02:03:48 pm »

This is a very questionable play for an actual cop, without even attempting first to get me lynched without the role claim.
I am not confident enough in my mafia skills to do that.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #936 on: June 06, 2012, 02:07:23 pm »

If I was lying about being a cop I wouldn't have used up the lie on J, who supposedly would now be a Vanilla Town if he was telling the truth.  I wouldn't even get a role lynch before I die.
But your partner would once the counterclaim turned up. And if you ARE the cop (which you're not) the mafia will get one tonight.

With 3 town already dead and 3 mafia in our ranks (with us NO CLOSER to catching them) I'm sure they're feeling plenty confident.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #937 on: June 06, 2012, 02:09:25 pm »

This looks pretty simple then (for once). Cant see any reason whatsoever for Axxle to lie here.

I'm going to delay voting though, just to give us more time to discuss stuff (also just in case someone counterclaims or we get any other new info).
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #938 on: June 06, 2012, 02:22:11 pm »

Well the possibility jotheonah being SK was definitely present in my mind. Claiming a townie power role (especially one that will look the same as SK--at first, anyway) proved to be really good cover for the first day, and definitely accomplished the goal of surviving. He also was very careful to have his reasoning backing up his choice of target no matter what the target ended up being. Also it seems like with role claiming one-shot vig gives him the opportunity to kill the first night, then lay low the next night or two before killing again.

Axxle's roleclaim, along with Insomniac's confirmation definitely points to jotheonah being SK, but I think I want even a bit more clarification; Insomniac mentioned a bit of looking on mafiascum will find the answer for the earlier question, but I haven't found this answer yet: For role-investigative purposes, does Serial Killer count as a faction or a role? Intuitively to me it seems like a Role Cop investigating Serial Killer should get Serial Killer as the result, unless the Serial Killer is considered something like the one normal member of the Serial Killer faction. [pre-post edit] Just glanced back at Axxle's post, mentioning that SK in this game could be a variant with protection from role checks--definitely possible with this closed game format. Guess that makes my question less useful than I thought it was.

I'm inclined to believe Axxle--probably because I had been considering the possibility that jotheonah was SK, combined with the fact that a fake claim from a mafia Axxle doesn't really make sense to me. OTOH I do have to agree with jotheonah's argument that trying to get him lynched first seems like a better play than roleclaiming right at the start of the day...but then, with mafia and a serial killer, 2 townies can get killed off every night, so if we have a way to knock that number down to 1, doing so is pretty urgent, maybe urgent enough to get it out there right away.

So, leaning towards voting jotheonah, but like Volt mentioned I think it's a good idea to hear from everyone before voting.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #939 on: June 06, 2012, 02:27:27 pm »

For role-investigative purposes, does Serial Killer count as a faction or a role? Intuitively to me it seems like a Role Cop investigating Serial Killer should get Serial Killer as the result, unless the Serial Killer is considered something like the one normal member of the Serial Killer faction. [pre-post edit] Just glanced back at Axxle's post, mentioning that SK in this game could be a variant with protection from role checks--definitely possible with this closed game format. Guess that makes my question less useful than I thought it was.
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Serial_killer
"Serial Killers have also been seen with investigation immunity like Godfathers, or Tracker/Watcher immunity like Ninja."
So actually he might be a Godfather too.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #940 on: June 06, 2012, 02:33:40 pm »

Let's explore this theoretical "I'm the serial killer" thing. So I claim the most obvious role claim, just hoping nobody counterclaims. And then I win the town's trust with my kill. And then I just hope no one investigates me. And then I masquerade through Day 2 as a helpful townie and ... then what? Either I never use my night kill again (which makes it very difficult for me to win) or I start using it and you guys (who are not dumb) immediately realize the gambit. It's a terrible plan. The SK is not playing to survive day to day. He has no allies. He has to survive ALL GAME. You should know better than to trust an easy answer.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #941 on: June 06, 2012, 02:37:45 pm »

Vote: Jotheonah

It's pretty clear that this is the right move regardless.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #942 on: June 06, 2012, 02:38:17 pm »

Let's explore this theoretical "I'm the serial killer" thing. So I claim the most obvious role claim, just hoping nobody counterclaims. And then I win the town's trust with my kill. And then I just hope no one investigates me. And then I masquerade through Day 2 as a helpful townie and ... then what? Either I never use my night kill again (which makes it very difficult for me to win) or I start using it and you guys (who are not dumb) immediately realize the gambit. It's a terrible plan. The SK is not playing to survive day to day. He has no allies. He has to survive ALL GAME. You should know better than to trust an easy answer.
Ok, I have no answer for that.  All I know is that my result was "No Role".
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #943 on: June 06, 2012, 02:45:49 pm »

Let's explore this theoretical "I'm the serial killer" thing. So I claim the most obvious role claim, just hoping nobody counterclaims. And then I win the town's trust with my kill. And then I just hope no one investigates me. And then I masquerade through Day 2 as a helpful townie and ... then what? Either I never use my night kill again (which makes it very difficult for me to win) or I start using it and you guys (who are not dumb) immediately realize the gambit. It's a terrible plan. The SK is not playing to survive day to day. He has no allies. He has to survive ALL GAME. You should know better than to trust an easy answer.
Ok, I have no answer for that.  All I know is that my result was "No Role".

Ok I am mostly thinking out loud (right I know I am typing, sheesh).

I didn't realize that Axxle's query came back "no role". I don't know if that changes things.
In what scenarios would jot come back "no role"

1. He didn't and Axxle is lying.
2. He was jailed, so couldn't be investigated? But that means he couldn't have been the VT because his kill would not have worked, so that would mean jot was lying about killing Frisk--doesn't make sense.
3. Is there another role that stops the Cop from investigating and gives back a no role to him no matter who he investigates?
4. He is SK. Here it is surprising. In setting up the game I would think that to be "hidden" the response would have to be Vanilla Townie for him to blend in. Giving "no role" is just as obvious as "serial killer or something else menacing"
5. I don't know.

I agree with O, this seems like the appropriate move and I am going to keep my vote but would like to hear from others.

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #944 on: June 06, 2012, 02:46:11 pm »

This one seems pretty straightforward to me.

Lynch jo ---> If he flips mafia yay, if he flips town ---> Lynch Axxle because he's mafia. (And if he somehow flips town, we'll exhume insomniac and lynch him again for screwing the town!)

This seems like the right move whether jo ends up being serial killer or mafia. Also adding to the idea that he's mafia is Galz' lynch yesterday. That bandwagon should be some reeeally good information for us if/when jo turns out to be mafia.

Vote: jotheonah
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #945 on: June 06, 2012, 02:49:37 pm »

2. He was jailed, so couldn't be investigated? But that means he couldn't have been the VT because his kill would not have worked, so that would mean jot was lying about killing Frisk--doesn't make sense.
3. Is there another role that stops the Cop from investigating and gives back a no role to him no matter who he investigates?
I'm pretty sure I would have gotten a "No result" in either of these cases instead of "No role".

I actually just remembered this role, but I think that Voltgloss stated that he was uncomfortable using it in his first modded game:
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Bus_Driver
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #946 on: June 06, 2012, 02:50:38 pm »

.
It's questions like that that make me want to not use Bus Drivers in my first game.  :) 
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #947 on: June 06, 2012, 02:51:17 pm »

Wait wait wait.

Unvote

But two people did die overnight. What does that mean? I definitely think that Serial Killer would come up as a role (confirmation on that though?), so if he has no role and he's not Serial Killer, why did C_F die last night, and why did jo take credit for him? Could this mean that another mafia is a mafia-vigilante-equivalent? Actually that would be a really good cover for jo but it also seems crazy powerful unless it's a one-shot. Thoughts?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #948 on: June 06, 2012, 02:53:03 pm »

@Dsell: Mafia Kill captain frisk to cover for J, SK is out there somewhere. J is a normal mafia.

Also, SK sometimes get investigate-vanilla buffs.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #949 on: June 06, 2012, 02:55:55 pm »

Ok that's reasonable enough. I see no situation in which neither of jo and Axxle is mafia.

Vote: jotheonah

And actually Robz makes a tiiiny bit more sense if he's a SK target I think in that...well it really doesn't make much sense.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #950 on: June 06, 2012, 02:57:53 pm »

The people who are saying the right thing to do is kill me either way are right. But I have some additional information that might change that.

I lied when I said I was a One-Shot Vigilante.  I'm actually just a Vigilante. I can choose to nightkill every night to help the town.  But I thought that if I claimed it as a one-shot, I could use it and then the mafia wouldn't target me, because they would think I was now just a Vanilla. Then later on, when we really needed the power, I could use it.

But the mafia rolecop must have investigated me and discovered the truth. That's why Axxle is so desperate to kill me today, during the day. The mafia can't afford for me to survive into the night.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #951 on: June 06, 2012, 03:00:25 pm »

The people who are saying the right thing to do is kill me either way are right. But I have some additional information that might change that.

I lied when I said I was a One-Shot Vigilante.  I'm actually just a Vigilante. I can choose to nightkill every night to help the town.  But I thought that if I claimed it as a one-shot, I could use it and then the mafia wouldn't target me, because they would think I was now just a Vanilla. Then later on, when we really needed the power, I could use it.

But the mafia rolecop must have investigated me and discovered the truth. That's why Axxle is so desperate to kill me today, during the day. The mafia can't afford for me to survive into the night.

...I applaud you for your efforts, that's damn close to the only argument that had a chance of working.

But nope. Better to kill the person who's a confirmed liar then risk killing Axxle (likely the cop!) first.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #952 on: June 06, 2012, 03:01:50 pm »

So... what were you going to do about this then?

Let's explore this theoretical "I'm the serial killer" thing. So I claim the most obvious role claim, just hoping nobody counterclaims. And then I win the town's trust with my kill. And then I just hope no one investigates me. And then I masquerade through Day 2 as a helpful townie and ... then what? Either I never use my night kill again (which makes it very difficult for me to win) or I start using it and you guys (who are not dumb) immediately realize the gambit. It's a terrible plan. The SK is not playing to survive day to day. He has no allies. He has to survive ALL GAME. You should know better than to trust an easy answer.

Doesn't it apply to that lie?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #953 on: June 06, 2012, 03:02:35 pm »

Unvote because this turn of events interests me. The only thing that this could change is whether we lynch Axxle first or jo.

How likely do we think it is that the mafia has a vigilante equivalent or that jo is the serial killer? I don't like that jo lied particularly, but he could very well be lying even now.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #954 on: June 06, 2012, 03:03:58 pm »

How likely do we think it is that the mafia has a vigilante equivalent
Mafia does not need a vigilante equivalent. If we have a mafia team and an SK there would also be 2 deaths.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #955 on: June 06, 2012, 03:06:41 pm »

Unvote because this turn of events interests me. The only thing that this could change is whether we lynch Axxle first or jo.

How likely do we think it is that the mafia has a vigilante equivalent or that jo is the serial killer? I don't like that jo lied particularly, but he could very well be lying even now.

...you are very, very, very gullible. Or a very terrible mafia.

J is clearly the lynch choice here. Dsell is becoming rapidly more suspicious in this game.

In fact, J, your optimal strategy here is probably to vote for yourself and deny the town information of the last voter. (Why am I giving this idea away? I like quicker mafia games).
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #956 on: June 06, 2012, 03:07:11 pm »

I'm not sure what you mean, Axxle. Is it ideal that I can't prove I'm not the serial killer? No. But why would I lie about this if I am?

If I'm SK, honestly, I've already lost. Say I miraculously talk the town into lynching you and you flip cop. Then they'll believe your claim about investigating me, and they'll know I'm SK. If I'm SK, there's just no way I can win this game. Luckily for me, I'm not SK. I'm Town Vig.

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #957 on: June 06, 2012, 03:09:23 pm »

Ummm yeah I think I want fewer deaths. Whichever person is mafia, we will have a LOT of information at that point, likely enough information for the town to win. I'm sorry to keep changing my mind but...

Vote: jotheonah

Because even if he's telling the truth, he very well might hit another town again. And that's a bigger risk than just taking him out now.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #958 on: June 06, 2012, 03:09:58 pm »

Does anyone remember who suggested who J should target? That might matter later.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #959 on: June 06, 2012, 03:11:03 pm »

Unvote because this turn of events interests me. The only thing that this could change is whether we lynch Axxle first or jo.

How likely do we think it is that the mafia has a vigilante equivalent or that jo is the serial killer? I don't like that jo lied particularly, but he could very well be lying even now.

...you are very, very, very gullible. Or a very terrible mafia.

J is clearly the lynch choice here. Dsell is becoming rapidly more suspicious in this game.

In fact, J, your optimal strategy here is probably to vote for yourself and deny the town information of the last voter. (Why am I giving this idea away? I like quicker mafia games).

There's no risk in unvoting and revoting! I said it interests me, I didn't say I believed it. It's a really fun thought exercise but I fully expect that I will be cleared quite soon anyway.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #960 on: June 06, 2012, 03:11:44 pm »

Does anyone remember who suggested who J should target? That might matter later.

O suggested flipping a coin a choosing either himself or Frisk based on the result. It was later changed to an odd or even timestamp on a post.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #961 on: June 06, 2012, 03:12:31 pm »

Does anyone remember who suggested who J should target? That might matter later.

O suggested flipping a coin a choosing either himself or Frisk based on the result. It was later changed to an odd or even timestamp on a post.


This is correct
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #962 on: June 06, 2012, 03:15:44 pm »

I should point out that IF you lynch me today, this is a very good day for the mafia. You've wiped out the one person who can nightkill them and they went a whole day without giving you any information.

And this, here's the clincher, is even more true if I flip SK.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #963 on: June 06, 2012, 03:17:58 pm »

Well the forum search is terrible, I did a search for "coin" said by "O" in "Forum Games" and all I got was this lousy T-Sh... I mean post:

Does anyone remember who suggested who J should target? That might matter later.

O suggested flipping a coin a choosing either himself or Frisk based on the result. It was later changed to an odd or even timestamp on a post.


This is correct
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #964 on: June 06, 2012, 03:18:27 pm »

I should point out that IF you lynch me today, this is a very good day for the mafia. You've wiped out the one person who can nightkill them and they went a whole day without giving you any information.

And this, here's the clincher, is even more true if I flip SK.

But in all likelihood you're *not* a vigilante OR a SK. You're a vanilla mafia.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #965 on: June 06, 2012, 03:20:15 pm »

And would the people like to suggest whom I should use my power ON? Cause firing it blindly is ... not protown.

I'd like you to flip a coin. Heads, Captain Frisk, Tails, O.

Killing someone whose going to get lynched anyways (because people tend to believe Galzria for some reason) is good townie strategy.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #966 on: June 06, 2012, 03:20:38 pm »

And this, here's the clincher, is even more true if I flip SK.
This is the only reason why I'm slightly hesitant to lynch J today.  If he is SK he may be able to help us kill mafia, and the mafia will want to get rid of him eventually.

If he's mafia though I'm 100% fine with lynching him.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #967 on: June 06, 2012, 03:22:17 pm »

I'll try to go back to Day 1 and see if he supported anyone too much or anyone supported him too much or if he looked more of a loner.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #968 on: June 06, 2012, 03:23:20 pm »

Not voting until morgrim and ehalcyon post something (in case we get more roleclaims or something crazy like that) but EVERYTHING is pointing to joh now so I'm having a hard time imagining a scenario where I would change my mind. Still, we gain nothing by hurrying to the night without giving everyone a chance to chime in.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #969 on: June 06, 2012, 04:23:37 pm »

I didn't really see him talk about many positively, lots of defense, attacks on O and Galz. He immediately retracts accusation of Galz though, convinced he is town.  There was an instance of defense of Eevee Post #489 ("Promising Town").  A jab at def (me) and others that post in the middle ground.  Accusing O and Robz of colluding against Eevee.  other things. eventually votes Eevee?

I'm definitely thinking he's SK and not Mafia, especially since he asked the town who he should kill without giving any input on who he thought should die, in fact he suggested that he wasn't even going to use his role last night:
Now nothing left to do but survive the night. Protector roles, my life is likely in your hands. Though I will say on record that I won't use my power this night.
And would the people like to suggest whom I should use my power ON? Cause firing it blindly is ... not protown.

You wouldn't choose not to use it if you're a normal Vigilante.  And if you ask the town who you should kill as an SK you don't really care who they suggest, you can just go along with it.

So, J is an SK, what should we do about it?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #970 on: June 06, 2012, 04:27:45 pm »


You wouldn't choose not to use it if you're a normal Vigilante. 


How do you figure? Like I said, firing it blindly would not have been pro-town.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #971 on: June 06, 2012, 04:33:27 pm »

I didn't really see him talk about many positively, lots of defense, attacks on O and Galz. He immediately retracts accusation of Galz though, convinced he is town.  There was an instance of defense of Eevee Post #489 ("Promising Town").  A jab at def (me) and others that post in the middle ground.  Accusing O and Robz of colluding against Eevee.  other things. eventually votes Eevee?

This covers the extent to which J was supporting anybody else.  To what extent was anybody else supporting J?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #972 on: June 06, 2012, 04:35:13 pm »

How do you figure? Like I said, firing it blindly would not have been pro-town.
You had some very strong accusations throughout the day, Captain_Frisk wasn't really one of them.  Robz and O in particular.  You even voted for Eevee for a bit.  Sure firing it blindly isn't really protown, are you saying you didn't have any scumtells at that point?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #973 on: June 06, 2012, 04:36:02 pm »

I didn't really see him talk about many positively, lots of defense, attacks on O and Galz. He immediately retracts accusation of Galz though, convinced he is town.  There was an instance of defense of Eevee Post #489 ("Promising Town").  A jab at def (me) and others that post in the middle ground.  Accusing O and Robz of colluding against Eevee.  other things. eventually votes Eevee?

This covers the extent to which J was supporting anybody else.  To what extent was anybody else supporting J?
That is a lot more difficult to look up, I can't really do that during my lunch, can someone else try?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #974 on: June 06, 2012, 04:39:39 pm »

I'll try to go back to Day 1 and see if he supported anyone too much or anyone supported him too much or if he looked more of a loner.

Sorry Axxle, I thought from this quote that you were looking at who supported J as well.  I'm happy to dig into this but it won't be until this evening (EDT).
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #975 on: June 06, 2012, 04:40:31 pm »

Not voting until morgrim and ehalcyon post something (in case we get more roleclaims or something crazy like that) but EVERYTHING is pointing to joh now so I'm having a hard time imagining a scenario where I would change my mind. Still, we gain nothing by hurrying to the night without giving everyone a chance to chime in.

I'm here.  Trying to wrap my head around the new situation.

Currently everyone is siding with Axxle against jo, so the case against him is fairly well covered.  Can we get a walk through of the situation where Axxle is lying?  Here's my take:

- If he is lying, he is trading his own survival for jo's.  In general, this 1:1 trade is probably worse for the Mafia.  They could have waited to see what way the town was leaning before pulling off such a move.  They may have been able to get another townie killed without sacrificing one of their own.  Therefore I am inclined to believe Axxle.

- If Axxle is lying and we lynch vigilante jo, then the status is that 3/9 remaining players are Mafia.  If the night kill is successful, 3/8.  Then we would lynch Axxle, so 2/7, then night kill so 2/6.  Is this good?  I legitimately do not know.

- If jo is SK, is it better that we lynch him or keep him around?  His days are numbered anyway.  Even if he were trying to target Mafia specifically it is still statistically more likely for him to hit more town.  Therefore jo is probably a safer first lynch than Axxle.

- For the purpose of thinking through all possible scenarios... what if Axxle and jo are both Mafia and this is a ploy to sacrifice one in exchange for town trust?  Would that be a viable Mafia strategy?  It would be suspicious if Axxle survived the night, but of course we don't know what protective roles are out there.  If he wishes not to divulge more information to help the town, it looks like he was jailed.  If he has something to say, well maybe we have a doctor.  I find this scenario extremely unlikely though.

Is "hidden SK" the only possible explanation for jo turning up as "no role"?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #976 on: June 06, 2012, 04:41:06 pm »

I'll try to go back to Day 1 and see if he supported anyone too much or anyone supported him too much or if he looked more of a loner.

Sorry Axxle, I thought from this quote that you were looking at who supported J as well.  I'm happy to dig into this but it won't be until this evening (EDT).
I was going to, but realized I couldn't.  Sorry for the confusion.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #977 on: June 06, 2012, 04:43:08 pm »

Is "hidden SK" the only possible explanation for jo turning up as "no role"?
He can also be a Mafia without a role or hidden role, maybe a Goon or Godfather.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #978 on: June 06, 2012, 04:44:49 pm »

He's probably SK though since it would be too risky for Mafia to declare Vigilante, NK someone, and wake up with only one person dead.  Although I guess that they could attribute it to a heal role.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #979 on: June 06, 2012, 04:45:40 pm »

Is "hidden SK" the only possible explanation for jo turning up as "no role"?
He can also be a Mafia without a role or hidden role, maybe a Goon or Godfather.

Plain Mafia would read as "no role"?  I thought Goons would still turn up as Goons.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #980 on: June 06, 2012, 04:47:04 pm »

No, they're basically Vanilla Mafia:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Role_Cop
"There is no indication of the target's alignment; if a Mafia Goon is investigated, they return "Vanilla". "
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #981 on: June 06, 2012, 04:58:57 pm »

No, they're basically Vanilla Mafia:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Role_Cop
"There is no indication of the target's alignment; if a Mafia Goon is investigated, they return "Vanilla". "

Well that's unfortunate.

But the presence of two night kills suggests that he is SK, right?

Is there any reason not to lynch a SK?  The main one is that we could try to get an actual Mafia and hope that SK gets another one in the night.  but likewise, Mafia can try to sway the lynch towards a townie and they'll get another town kill at night, plus the possibility of SK killing a third townie.  Leaving SK in play would be dangerous to both sides, but probably more dangerous for the town.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #982 on: June 06, 2012, 05:09:28 pm »

He's probably SK though since it would be too risky for Mafia to declare Vigilante, NK someone, and wake up with only one person dead.  Although I guess that they could attribute it to a heal role.

Or he could have simply said he didn't use his power.  Reading J's posts during the twilight, I didn't see any final public commitment one way or the other as to whether he was going to nightkill.  (He originally said "I won't do it," then there was the coinflip discussion started by O, suggesting maybe he would do it, but J was asking questions about how it would look to the town, and... the discussion was left hanging open and unresolved when Insomniac locked the thread.)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #983 on: June 06, 2012, 05:19:00 pm »

I didn't really see him talk about many positively, lots of defense, attacks on O and Galz. He immediately retracts accusation of Galz though, convinced he is town.  There was an instance of defense of Eevee Post #489 ("Promising Town").  A jab at def (me) and others that post in the middle ground.  Accusing O and Robz of colluding against Eevee.  other things. eventually votes Eevee?

When did he retract accusation of Galz?  I couldn't find that. 

In #764 he switches his vote from Eevee to Galzria, stating that he didn't actually suspect Eevee while his suspicion has grown on Galz.  I believe he was the third vote on the wagon, after me and O, though he may have been writing that post before O voted.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #984 on: June 06, 2012, 05:22:55 pm »

I didn't really see him talk about many positively, lots of defense, attacks on O and Galz. He immediately retracts accusation of Galz though, convinced he is town.  There was an instance of defense of Eevee Post #489 ("Promising Town").  A jab at def (me) and others that post in the middle ground.  Accusing O and Robz of colluding against Eevee.  other things. eventually votes Eevee?

When did he retract accusation of Galz?  I couldn't find that.

Axxle is talking about #491.  But yeah, you're right that at the end of the day, J's vote switched from Eevee to Galz and was one of the 7 pushing him into a lynch.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #985 on: June 06, 2012, 05:37:54 pm »

I'll try to go back to Day 1 and see if he supported anyone too much or anyone supported him too much or if he looked more of a loner.

I supported him. I said we had investigative roles to find out his allegiance, and oh look, we did.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #986 on: June 06, 2012, 05:45:54 pm »

So the only one that hasn't been spotted yet is Morgrim? Although it appears he was last active at Today at 12:19:33 pm according to his page. So I wonder if he has seen the latest developments or not...

I am not suggesting we hurry a lynch up. We need to make sure we are going through the right steps and all, but we do need to think about the next step since we don't know how long of a twilight we will have.

If Axxle is cop, we need to find a way to keep him alive through the night. Since we don't know what roles are out there--and we wouldn't want a Doc or Jail to claim anyways--I don't know if there is much we can do other than to say if jots does end up being SK or Mafia we need to protect Axxle if possible. (help a newbie out... A jailed cop can or can't investigate?) Are there other protective roles out there?

I haven't done status for a while:

Suspicious: Morgrim (still) jotheonah, Axxle if jot flips town
Not suspicious:
Vote: jotheonah
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #987 on: June 06, 2012, 05:47:34 pm »

Jailed cop cannot investigate.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #988 on: June 06, 2012, 05:50:07 pm »

(help a newbie out... A jailed cop can or can't investigate?) Are there other protective roles out there?

Jailed is protected but also roleblocked.  The plus side of jailing the cop is that it denies a Mafia kill if the Mafia target him in the night.

I also find Morgrim suspicious.  I'm ready to vote for jo but am waiting in case there is any more discussion to be had.  What's the current vote count?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #989 on: June 06, 2012, 05:51:46 pm »

I think 4. Axxle, yuma, O and Dsell
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #990 on: June 06, 2012, 06:12:00 pm »

I think 4. Axxle, yuma, O and Dsell

This is correct and ordered as I would have ordered it
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #991 on: June 06, 2012, 10:54:07 pm »

so. forum crashed a little there, eh?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #992 on: June 06, 2012, 11:01:36 pm »

so. forum crashed a little there, eh?
just a bit.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #993 on: June 06, 2012, 11:44:03 pm »

- For the purpose of thinking through all possible scenarios... what if Axxle and jo are both Mafia and this is a ploy to sacrifice one in exchange for town trust?  Would that be a viable Mafia strategy?  It would be suspicious if Axxle survived the night, but of course we don't know what protective roles are out there.

I think this is very unlikely, but I think we can cross that bridge when we come to it. I think if we take out mafia here (jo or reverting to Axxle if jo is not) we will have some solid information and a direction for our power roles. I think we have a shot at winning.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #994 on: June 07, 2012, 12:52:39 am »

I was curious about who voted for whom and why.  I went through and compiled the votes from day 1.  A number is attached to each vote indicating which vote number it is for that target, e.g. Bob (3) means this is the third vote for Bob.  A number is also attached to each unvote, indicating the number of votes remaining AFTER the unvote, so if "Bob unvotes Joe (2)" that means that there are still 2 votes left on Joe, not counting Bob.

Please let me know if I missed anything or got anything wrong.  Here it is in chronological order.  I'm going to pull this out by person and put that in a different post.

Page 8
191: CFrisk votes for Galzria (1), citing high post count.
192: Eevee votes for yuma (1), citing low post count.
195: michaeljb votes for yuma (2), saying he wants to generate talk.

Page 9
207: O votes for Morgrim (1) by random chance.
210: michaeljb unvotes yuma (1) after yuma responds.

Page 10
229: Eevee unvotes yuma (0).  No longer finds yuma suspicious.

Page 11
251: CFrisk unvotes Galzria (0) and votes for Morgrim (2), partially agreeing with O's randomness but also because Morgrim's posts have been suspicious unsubstantial, as if wanting to maintain appearance of activity.
254: Morgrim randomly votes for def (1), though randomness is not verifiable.  He says he felt pressured to vote because there were already 2 votes on him (in #261).
263: yuma votes for Morgrim (3) in response to his odd behaviour and CFrisk's arguments.

Page 12
275: Morgrim unvotes def (0), now convinced that random voting is bad town play.
285: jotheonah votes for O (1) because O is OK with random lynch and has been "getting annoying".
297: Morgrim votes for O (2) because he continues to support random voting.
299: Galzria votes for O (3) because he is "being purposefully unhelpful and blind to simple logic and reasoning".

Page 13
310: jotheonah unvotes O (2), saying he doesn't want to leave his vote on O overnight.
314: CFrisk unvotes Morgrim (2); now considers that Morgrim is more unorthodox than scummy.
321: Galzria unvotes O (1) as O now appears to be helpful.

Page 14
332: CFrisk votes for jotheonah (1) because he had been "ok with killing a bad townie".
341: Dsell votes for Robz (1) because he has been playing the middle ground, the very thing Robz had warned of.

Page 15
354: eHalcyon votes for O (4) because he said he would have self-hammered.

Page 16
393: CFrisk unvotes jotheonah (0) and votes for Robz (2), saying that he had been "hiding from this game" and seemed opposed to casting votes and moving forward.
397: Morgrim unvotes O (1) because he will be absent in the next few days.

Page 19
452: O unvotes and votes for Eevee (1) , apparently because Eevee insulted him.
456: eHalcyon unvotes O (0) after O explains his self-lynch idea.
457: Galzria votes for jotheonah (1) and actually does give many reasons for it, but many of these are discarded as weak or else somehow forgotten.
458: Eevee votes for Robz (3) following Dsell's analysis that his activity seems similar to Mafia II.
471: Robz votes for Eevee (2) after voicing high suspicion of Eevee and Dsell and choosing Eevee since he already had a vote on him.

Page 20
493: jotheonah votes for def (1), saying that the mafia are probably among those who have not voted and are angling for no lynch.

Page 21
502: yuma unvotes Morgrim (0) and votes for jotheonah (2) due to his extreme defensiveness against Galzria's vote and his apparently deflective vote on def.
503: michaeljb votes for jotheonah (3) based on on-going discussion and analysis.
523: Voltgloss votes for Robz (4) with a pretty strong case in that post.  Later reveals that this was an "experiment".

Page 22
532: jotheonah unvotes for def (0) and votes for Robz (5) because the existing case is strong and Robz is unconvincing.

Page 23
569: Voltgloss votes for jotheonah (4) due to the results of an "experiment" (described in #575).  This implicitly unvotes Robz (4).

Page 24
582: Morgrim votes for jotheonah (5) based on the existing case.
597: Voltgloss unvotes jotheonah (4) after his role claim, so that he can speak the next morning.

Page 26
625: Galzria unvotes jotheonah (3) because jo probably won't be lynched after his role claim.
648: Galzria votes for jotheonah (4) again, at Voltgloss' request.
649: Voltgloss votes for jotheonah (5) again, after Galzria revotes.

Page 28
676: jotheonah unvotes Robz (3) and votes for Eevee (3) due to O's suggestion for surviving.
698: Voltgloss unvotes jotheonah (4) after jotheonah's specific role claim -- he can be investigated in the night.

Page 29
706: michaeljb unvotes jotheonah (3) following his role claim.

Page 30
728: Galzria unvotes jotheonah (2) and votes for Robz (4) due to Dsell's persuasion that he may have read Robz wrong.
744: eHalcyon votes for Galzria (1) due to increasingly odd behaviour, suddenly turning on Robz.

Page 31
762: O unvotes Eevee (2) and votes for Galzria (2) after Galzria says it is better to mislynch than no lynch.
764: jotheonah unvotes Eevee (1) and votes for Galzria (3) with a relatively long post about how he became more suspicious.
765: Galzria unvotes Robz (3) and votes for himself (4).

Page 32
776: Eevee votes for Galzria (5) for the same reason as O, thus implicitly unvoting Robz (2).
783: CFrisk unvotes Robz (1) and votes for Galzria (6) on the basis of his self-vote.
788: Galzria unvotes himself (5) due to comments against self-lynching.
791: Galzria votes for jotheonah (3) once more.

Page 33
823: Dsell votes for Galzria (6) after a lot of hedging kind of talk.  This implicitly unvotes Robz (0).

Page 34
844: Morgrim votes for Galzria (7) even though he says he thinks Galz is town.  This implicitly unvotes jotheonah (2).
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #995 on: June 07, 2012, 12:59:45 am »

Page 15
354: eHalcyon votes for O (4 2) because he said he would have self-hammered.

Found a mistake.  When I voted for O, I was the second vote, not the fourth.  A couple had already unvoted.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #996 on: June 07, 2012, 01:03:18 am »

eHalcyon, that is actually very helpful. I think I have a good idea of who a possible cop should investigate after jo is lynched.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #997 on: June 07, 2012, 01:04:25 am »

But I don't think I'll reveal until jo's lynch has happened or is virtually certain.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #998 on: June 07, 2012, 01:06:27 am »

But I don't think I'll reveal until jo's lynch has happened or is virtually certain.

Me! I pushed for Galzria's lynch, worked hard to keep J alive day one and now threw him under the bus. I've had better games.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #999 on: June 07, 2012, 01:09:13 am »

But I don't think I'll reveal until jo's lynch has happened or is virtually certain.

Me! I pushed for Galzria's lynch, worked hard to keep J alive day one and now threw him under the bus. I've had better games.

I think if we judge solely on day 1 I think we've all had better games (As a figure of speech anyway. This was my first forum mafia game). But no, you were wrong and you were frustrating at times but my suspicions lie elsewhere.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1000 on: June 07, 2012, 01:11:27 am »

But I don't think I'll reveal until jo's lynch has happened or is virtually certain.

Me! I pushed for Galzria's lynch, worked hard to keep J alive day one and now threw him under the bus. I've had better games.

Well, I put the first vote on Galzria.  Granted, there had been a lot of suspicion building up before then... but I'm sad to say that I got turned around.  When I looked back on old posts, I realized that I actually thought Galz's case against jo was pretty strong.  But then I was gone for much of the weekend and I remembered it as weak.  Shameful.



Post by person coming in a bit.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1001 on: June 07, 2012, 01:15:52 am »

By person.  The reasons given are the same as the previous post. 

(Stray observation: Robz voted once and stuck by it all the way to the end.  Wow.)

Captain_Frisk
191: CFrisk votes for Galzria (1), citing high post count.
251: CFrisk unvotes Galzria (0) and votes for Morgrim (2), partially agreeing with O's randomness but also because Morgrim's posts have been suspicious unsubstantial, as if wanting to maintain appearance of activity.
314: CFrisk unvotes Morgrim (2); now considers that Morgrim is more unorthodox than scummy.
332: CFrisk votes for jotheonah (1) because he had been "ok with killing a bad townie".
393: CFrisk unvotes jotheonah (0) and votes for Robz (2), saying that he had been "hiding from this game" and seemed opposed to casting votes and moving forward.
783: CFrisk unvotes Robz (1) and votes for Galzria (6) on the basis of his self-vote.

Dsell
341: Dsell votes for Robz (1) because he has been playing the middle ground, the very thing Robz had warned of.
823: Dsell votes for Galzria (6) after a lot of hedging kind of talk.  This implicitly unvotes Robz (0).

Eevee
192: Eevee votes for yuma (1), citing low post count.
229: Eevee unvotes yuma (0).  No longer finds yuma suspicious.
458: Eevee votes for Robz (3) following Dsell's analysis that his activity seems similar to Mafia II.
776: Eevee votes for Galzria (5) for the same reason as O, thus implicitly unvoting Robz (2).

eHalcyon
354: eHalcyon votes for O (2) because he said he would have self-hammered.
456: eHalcyon unvotes O (0) after O explains his self-lynch idea.
744: eHalcyon votes for Galzria (1) due to increasingly odd behaviour, suddenly turning on Robz.

Galzria
299: Galzria votes for O (3) because he is "being purposefully unhelpful and blind to simple logic and reasoning".
321: Galzria unvotes O (1) as O now appears to be helpful.
457: Galzria votes for jotheonah (1) and actually does give many reasons for it, but many of these are discarded as weak or else somehow forgotten.
625: Galzria unvotes jotheonah (3) because jo probably won't be lynched after his role claim.
648: Galzria votes for jotheonah (4) again, at Voltgloss' request.
728: Galzria unvotes jotheonah (2) and votes for Robz (4) due to Dsell's persuasion that he may have read Robz wrong.
765: Galzria unvotes Robz (3) and votes for himself (4).
788: Galzria unvotes himself (5) due to comments against self-lynching.
791: Galzria votes for jotheonah (3) once more.

jotheonah
285: jotheonah votes for O (1) because O is OK with random lynch and has been "getting annoying".
310: jotheonah unvotes O (2), saying he doesn't want to leave his vote on O overnight.
493: jotheonah votes for def (1), saying that the mafia are probably among those who have not voted and are angling for no lynch.
532: jotheonah unvotes for def (0) and votes for Robz (5) because the existing case is strong and Robz is unconvincing.
676: jotheonah unvotes Robz (3) and votes for Eevee (3) due to O's suggestion for surviving.
764: jotheonah unvotes Eevee (1) and votes for Galzria (3) with a relatively long post about how he became more suspicious.

michaeljb
195: michaeljb votes for yuma (2), saying he wants to generate talk.
210: michaeljb unvotes yuma (1) after yuma responds.
503: michaeljb votes for jotheonah (3) based on on-going discussion and analysis.
706: michaeljb unvotes jotheonah (3) following his role claim.

Morgrim7
254: Morgrim randomly votes for def (1), though randomness is not verifiable.  He says he felt pressured to vote because there were already 2 votes on him (in #261).
275: Morgrim unvotes def (0), now convinced that random voting is bad town play.
297: Morgrim votes for O (2) because he continues to support random voting.
397: Morgrim unvotes O (1) because he will be absent in the next few days.
582: Morgrim votes for jotheonah (5) based on the existing case.
844: Morgrim votes for Galzria (7) even though he says he thinks Galz is town.  This implicitly unvotes jotheonah (2).

O
207: O votes for Morgrim (1) by random chance.
452: O unvotes and votes for Eevee (1) , apparently because Eevee insulted him.
762: O unvotes Eevee (2) and votes for Galzria (2) after Galzria says it is better to mislynch than no lynch.

Robz888
471: Robz votes for Eevee (2) after voicing high suspicion of Eevee and Dsell and choosing Eevee since he already had a vote on him.

Voltgloss
523: Voltgloss votes for Robz (4) with a pretty strong case in that post.  Later reveals that this was an "experiment".
569: Voltgloss votes for jotheonah (4) due to the results of an "experiment" (described in #575).  This implicitly unvotes Robz (4).
597: Voltgloss unvotes jotheonah (4) after his role claim, so that he can speak the next morning.
649: Voltgloss votes for jotheonah (5) again, after Galzria revotes.
698: Voltgloss unvotes jotheonah (4) after jotheonah's specific role claim -- he can be investigated in the night.

yuma
263: yuma votes for Morgrim (3) in response to his odd behaviour and CFrisk's arguments.
502: yuma unvotes Morgrim (0) and votes for jotheonah (2) due to his extreme defensiveness against Galzria's vote and his apparently deflective vote on def.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1002 on: June 07, 2012, 01:17:55 am »

@DSell: Remember, once we lynch J we won't know what he flips until after the thread is locked.  Be sure to suggest before that.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1003 on: June 07, 2012, 01:21:48 am »

But I don't think I'll reveal until jo's lynch has happened or is virtually certain.

Me! I pushed for Galzria's lynch, worked hard to keep J alive day one and now threw him under the bus. I've had better games.

Well, I put the first vote on Galzria.  Granted, there had been a lot of suspicion building up before then... but I'm sad to say that I got turned around.  When I looked back on old posts, I realized that I actually thought Galz's case against jo was pretty strong.  But then I was gone for much of the weekend and I remembered it as weak.  Shameful.



Post by person coming in a bit.

I actually never thought Galz' case against jo was that strong, but I think that may have been a weakness of my perception rather than a weakness of his argument. What I look for, expect, and try to act out as town is really pro-town behavior. I didn't really buy into Galz' "I'm cool with looking pretty suspicious because that only makes me look like town" argument for myself. But then, I guess that is what got him into hot water.

I think when you made the argument against Galz, you kind of put down what we were all thinking. I still suspected Robz a lot more but that lynch was looking less and less possible and we had that deadline. Well, I was wrong on both counts. I should have trusted my instinct that there would not be enough townies around to perform a last-minute all-townie lynch on mafia. As it is, I am frustrated that we lost 3 townies but glad they were all vanilla and I'm grateful for the information we got from it. Right now, that's looking like a lot.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1004 on: June 07, 2012, 01:23:57 am »

@DSell: Remember, once we lynch J we won't know what he flips until after the thread is locked.  Be sure to suggest before that.

Yes, I'm hoping that the actual lynch happens while I'm online (which is a lot...) so I'll be able to catch it. I just think it's a little safer to wait until things are looking a little more certain. I feel like we have plenty of information to lynch right now and this info is not immediately pertinent. So I want to give as little to the mafia as possible right now.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1005 on: June 07, 2012, 01:35:08 am »

VOTE: jotheonah

That puts us at 5, I think?

Is that close enough for you, Dsell?

I have major suspicions of someone as well, but I want to hear yours first because (no offense) I find you a bit suspicious as well.  You seem like you want to be everyone's friend, but in a very non-committal way.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1006 on: June 07, 2012, 01:45:43 am »

VOTE: jotheonah

That puts us at 5, I think?

Is that close enough for you, Dsell?

I have major suspicions of someone as well, but I want to hear yours first because (no offense) I find you a bit suspicious as well.  You seem like you want to be everyone's friend, but in a very non-committal way.

I completely understand the suspicion of me. If I didn't know I was town and looked at your chart/list I would be suspicious of me too. But no, I think I want to hold off a bit longer. Ideally 7 or at least 6 votes for jo, or a promise of a vote. I don't want this person to come in and be able to tell us everything that we want to hear; I would rather an investigation be based on just the facts. Of course this person should have a chance to defend themselves before we lynch them but for an investigation, I don't see why they should be able to deflect that idea in length. Ultimately it will be up to the investigator, though. We may have different ideas of who to investigate.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1007 on: June 07, 2012, 01:46:58 am »

The only people online in the MIII game are the people that voted already for J. Lynch tonight looks unlikely..
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1008 on: June 07, 2012, 01:51:03 am »

Well, I'll just put mine up anyway.

I'm highly suspicious of Morgrim now.

- His first vote is random, despite criticism of O's random vote.
- After he unvotes in the face of randomness backlash, he joins the crowd calling O out.
- He jumps on the jotheonah bandwagon without offering any reason of his own (just that others have already made a good case).
- At the very end, he hammers Galzria while saying that he believes Galz is town.

That last point is a clincher, IMO.  The other thing is that I feel as though he's floated through all the discussion without offering anything of his own.  His early posts were journal entries.  When he was called out on his non-contribution, he votes randomly, then turns on that and criticizes O for voting randomly.

After his initial unvote of O (for which he never actually gave a satisfactory reason -- he says because he would be gone, but O was no longer in danger), he pretty much flies under the radar until he pops in to jump on the jo bandwagon.

And following that he is pretty much dark until the end.  Aside from his hammer on Galzria (which was a really bad play since, according to him, he thought Galz was town), the only other comments from him that I thought were noteworthy were a couple on page 32:

Aww, you are too nice to be Mafia! Maybe it is that you are a fellow solo challenge hoster. ;)

Yay! Need one more people. See how the Mafia lead. Lynch Galzria!
Why are you doing this!?! Downvote, a million times.

I find these comments extremely odd.  Galzria was already in danger of getting lynched.  If he thought Galz was innocent, why didn't he speak up with a real defense?  Similarly, when Galz was one away, his comment is devoid of content.

And then he hammers Galz.

So... can all this be explained away by mere oddball behaviour?  Maybe.  I mean, he also hammered someone he knew to be town in his other game (that being himself).

Still, I find it suspicious.

I'd be happy if Morgrim would defend himself.  He really needs to speak up more.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1009 on: June 07, 2012, 01:51:07 am »

eHalcyon, one slight issue with your list. My vote for Galz and C_F's vote for Galz are both listed as vote 6. I was actually vote 7.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1010 on: June 07, 2012, 01:54:36 am »

eHalcyon, one slight issue with your list. My vote for Galz and C_F's vote for Galz are both listed as vote 6. I was actually vote 7.

No, my numbers are by the number of votes on someone at that time.  Between CF's vote and your vote, Galzria unvoted himself.

If you were the seventh, it would have ended right there. :P
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1011 on: June 07, 2012, 01:57:27 am »

Ok, so, when I started writing this, the last post I saw was Insomniac's #990, then the forum crashed, then I was away from my computer where this was saved, and now I don't have time to catch up on what's new or stay on in case anyone responds right away or something. I'll be back on hopefully tomorrow, but I'll probably be pretty busy with homework. Now that that intro/disclaimer thingie is out of the way...

[When I started writing, didn't expect this post to get this long, sorry 'bout that.]

Galzria went from 0 votes to lynched in just under 3.5 hours, I just don't see that being done with absolutely no mafia push. So I'm inclined to look at those voters who are still alive (eHalcyon, O, jotheonah, Eevee, Dsell, Morgrim7). I'm confident there has to be at least one mafia in that group, and I think it's fairly likely two of them are mafia, and it's possible that all three are mafia, but that seems unlikely to me.

The people who are saying the right thing to do is kill me either way are right. But I have some additional information that might change that.

I lied when I said I was a One-Shot Vigilante.  I'm actually just a Vigilante. I can choose to nightkill every night to help the town.  But I thought that if I claimed it as a one-shot, I could use it and then the mafia wouldn't target me, because they would think I was now just a Vanilla. Then later on, when we really needed the power, I could use it.

But the mafia rolecop must have investigated me and discovered the truth. That's why Axxle is so desperate to kill me today, during the day. The mafia can't afford for me to survive into the night.

Now that Axxle has made his claims, jotheonah is changing his own roleclaim, and explaining his plan for how to use his kills pretty much matches the scenario I thought of if he were SK (and I think described by someone else, don't remember for sure though)--he claims power town to save his skin one day, then doesn't use his kill for a night a two, then kills some more.

As for this: "when we really needed the power, I could use it." Well it didn't take much persusasion to get him to use it here, so in that scenario it seems the mafia would have a good chance at influencing who he ended up killing.

Now on the other hand, I definitely don't want to rule out the possible that Axxle is actually a Mafia Rolecop, but…well it just feels like the likeliest thing is that Axxle is what he says he is. Of course if jotheonah gets lynched and flips town, it's pretty much a done deal that Axxle is mafia. Or maybe he's the lyncher and jotheonah is his lynchee? Continuing to think about the possibilities that exist because this is a closed game is probably just going to make me crazy…

Anyway, jotheonah feels most scummy to me and what I think of Axxle pretty much depends on what happens with jotheonah.

Other people that voted for Galzria…
Well I'm still suspicious of Morgrim, I'd like to hear from him. Especially why he brought the hammer down, even when he was sure that Galzria was town. How could he be sure Galzria was town? And why would he then hammer him? Morgrim being mafia answers both questions, though perhaps a bit obviously. (And to address the possibility that automatically suspecting the hammer is a fallacy, just re-read my question with "vote" instead of "hammer")

eHalcyon, O, MrEevee, Dsell…I don't feel that I have a whole lot to say about any of these, certainly none of them are as suspicious to me as jotheonah and morgrim.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1012 on: June 07, 2012, 01:58:00 am »

Aww, you are too nice to be Mafia! Maybe it is that you are a fellow solo challenge hoster. ;)

Saying nothing about the rest of your analysis, this quote was actually a reference to M II, in which either Morgrim or Galzria said they believed the other to be too nice to be mafia (because he was a fellow solo challenge hoster). It was semi-joking at least, but the other person kinda jumped down their throat for saying that. It's a repeat of the same joke in a somewhat more ironic circumstance.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1013 on: June 07, 2012, 01:58:50 am »

eHalcyon, one slight issue with your list. My vote for Galz and C_F's vote for Galz are both listed as vote 6. I was actually vote 7.

No, my numbers are by the number of votes on someone at that time.  Between CF's vote and your vote, Galzria unvoted himself.

If you were the seventh, it would have ended right there. :P

Ooooh you're right sorry. I was thinking Mafia IV numbers. I knew I was the penultimate vote, and I saw that he was the vote before me.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1014 on: June 07, 2012, 02:11:10 am »

Aww, you are too nice to be Mafia! Maybe it is that you are a fellow solo challenge hoster. ;)

Saying nothing about the rest of your analysis, this quote was actually a reference to M II, in which either Morgrim or Galzria said they believed the other to be too nice to be mafia (because he was a fellow solo challenge hoster). It was semi-joking at least, but the other person kinda jumped down their throat for saying that. It's a repeat of the same joke in a somewhat more ironic circumstance.

But that doesn't change the point -- when Galz was on the cusp of getting lynched, Morgrim jokes about it instead of making a defense for him.  That looks odd considering his next posts, especially casting the final vote.

And yeah, it's a fallacy to go after the hammer, but I think less so when he does it while saying the target is innocent.


@michaeljb -- In defense of myself, I cast the very first vote on Galzria (early game votes notwithstanding).  If I were Mafia it would have been far better to jump on one of the existing wagons or just keeping waiting things out.  Keep in mind that when I cast my vote, Robz was at 4 and Eevee at 3.  Without assuming any other roles, we know Robz was town and I could have pushed that without too much trouble.

I'm inclined to trust O, assuming jo is not Mafia.  O suggested that jo kill either him and CFrisk at random.  He risked himself, and that just wouldn't be worth it if he was Mafia.  But if jo flips Mafia then I have no idea.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1015 on: June 07, 2012, 02:12:36 am »

Anyway, I think I'm out for the night.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1016 on: June 07, 2012, 02:26:09 am »

Going to sleep, and will be missing for much of tomorrow due to E3, but I'll say some quick thoughts on who I should investigate:

Morgrim is the most suspicious due to voting habits.  I don't want to judge him on the hammer though since you guys were really in panic mode because of the deadline.  If J flips SK I'll investigate him.

Eevee and J were slightly too buddy/buddy.  If he flips Mafia I'll investigate him.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1017 on: June 07, 2012, 05:05:04 am »


Eevee and J were slightly too buddy/buddy.  If he flips Mafia I'll investigate him.
Dont remember this happening, maybe provide some quotes?

Vote: jotheonah, as I mentioned earlier the only reason I didnt do this earlier was to give possible counterclaims time to come up if they were going to.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1018 on: June 07, 2012, 08:26:50 am »

Just woke up, just caught up...

...and I see we're already at 6.  And Morgrim never chimed in all day. 

Though according to his profile he was online yesterday at around 2 p.m. EDT, so if he checked here before logging off he would have at least seen Axxle's claim.

Time to see how J flips. 
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 2
« Reply #1019 on: June 07, 2012, 08:40:33 am »

The screams from the two that died on day 2 still haunt you. You keep hearing it over and over again wondering who would do such things. Axxle points at jotheonah and says HE DID IT. In a hectic frenzy Axxle joined by yuma, O, DSell, eHalcyon and Eevee quickly pick him up and throw him into the river near your shelter. As you throw him into the river you remove his coat so you can check your allegations. A quick investigation shows a piece of paper, huh looks like he was from this shelter after all, you pick up the coat to be sure and give it a good shake. Falling from the left breast pocket emerges a bloody knife with jotheonah engraved on the hilt.

jotheonah, the serial killer  is dead.

Night 2 has begun. Night 2 will complete in 48 hours and Day 3 will begin at roughly 8:00am PDT June 9, 2012. Players with night actions have until that time to PM me their night actions

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1020 on: June 09, 2012, 11:11:36 am »

BEEP BEEP BEEP. The every day alarm goes off at 6am in the morning determined to ruin your perfectly good sleep. Feeling a little groggy and very hungry, (it's been almost a full 2 days since anyone gave you a twig to eat) you get the feeling something is wrong. You start to make your way towards the river from which you beg and you see a crowd gathering. In the center of the crowd you see a dead body what else is new right, ever since Insomniac died beggars keep turning up dead. You decide to see who it is. You make out the body of michaeljb. In disbelief you search his body for clues, (or twigs, MAN you're hungry, you've heard of a land far off thats better off with waffles, well not better off when compared to places that are much better off but better off than this shelter). You find his shelter card on this inside of his torn pants, he is indeed from your shelter.

michaeljb the vanilla townie is dead.

Day 3 has begun
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1021 on: June 09, 2012, 11:50:17 am »

Morgrim is Vanilla.  Which means he could be a Vanilla Townie, Mafia Goon, Mafia Godfather, or something else that hides from investigative roles.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1022 on: June 09, 2012, 12:54:12 pm »

I would really like to hear Morgrim's response to the reasons-for-suspicion leveled against him during Day 2.  And I'll add on top of those a question that's been gnawing at me:  Morgrim, why did you give absolutely NO reaction to Axxle's roleclaim?  (I have to assume Morgrim saw it, as he was on-line here after Axxle made his claim post.)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1023 on: June 09, 2012, 12:56:28 pm »

Wow, feels like ages since I last posted here... With so many vanilla townies already dead (Galz, Rob, CFrisk and now Michaeljb) what are the chances that Morgrim is also vanilla town? It is growing more and more likely that he isn't with each passing death.

I really want to hear from Morgrim to explain his absence during all of yesterday, but at the moment he is on my suspicion list--and has been from the beginning of the game.

Status:
Suspicious: Morgrim, frankly just about everyone else is on this list at this point, but he is the highest
Not suspicious: none
Vote: none

pre-edit: Voltgloss beat me to the post, and I agree with his post and his request to Morgrim
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1024 on: June 09, 2012, 01:04:35 pm »

I am SO sorry. I was just confused yesterday (in game) about how many were needed to lynch. I would have definitely responded after eHalcyon if I had realized there was just one more needed to hammer. I am curious to hear whether anyone else had any successful investigations. Anyway, I was going to say that someone should investigate Eevee. His positions on bandwagons seems opportunistic and his accusations of me right out the gate yesterday felt odd. They were harsh and out of place based on what I had already said and they were never brought up again after it looked like jo or Axxle would be lynched. Also, it is confirmed now that Robz was killed by the mafia at night, and while I maintain that it seems like an odd strategic move, it could make sense if they wanted to shut down suspicion of Eevee, who was his main (not only) target.

Also because jo flipped SK, we cannot be sure of Axxle's alignment. He could be a mafia rolecop just as easily as a townie. Also, I believe we are at a stage where we must lynch mafia to have a chance. If we lynch another townie and a townie is NK'ed, I think we are at even numbers and mafia wins.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1025 on: June 09, 2012, 01:22:18 pm »

I am SO sorry. I was just confused yesterday (in game) about how many were needed to lynch. I would have definitely responded after eHalcyon if I had realized there was just one more needed to hammer. I am curious to hear whether anyone else had any successful investigations. Anyway, I was going to say that someone should investigate Eevee. His positions on bandwagons seems opportunistic and his accusations of me right out the gate yesterday felt odd. They were harsh and out of place based on what I had already said and they were never brought up again after it looked like jo or Axxle would be lynched. Also, it is confirmed now that Robz was killed by the mafia at night, and while I maintain that it seems like an odd strategic move, it could make sense if they wanted to shut down suspicion of Eevee, who was his main (not only) target.

Also because jo flipped SK, we cannot be sure of Axxle's alignment. He could be a mafia rolecop just as easily as a townie. Also, I believe we are at a stage where we must lynch mafia to have a chance. If we lynch another townie and a townie is NK'ed, I think we are at even numbers and mafia wins.

You're right, Axxle isn't completely clear, but it still feels odd that he would make that claim if he wasn't, since it would be risking counterclaim.  Maybe he was mafia who caught jo and just really wanted him out of the way, but I find it very unlikely.

The thing is, why did the Mafia not kill Axxle?  The easy explanation is that he is indeed Mafia.  Another possibility is that they fear protective roles.  A third possibility is that the Mafia wants to cast suspicion on the cop during the day.

And for the record, I am currently most suspicious of Morgrim and you (Dsell).  Robz' main target was not just Eevee.  Check his post 471 -- he puts you and Eevee on the same level and only votes for Eevee because he already had a vote on him.  There are other reasons I am suspicious of you but I'll need some time to collect thoughts (and I'm going to be heading out in a little bit).
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1026 on: June 09, 2012, 04:26:56 pm »

I agree with you. I don't strongly suspect Axxle, just wanted to point out that he's not rock-solid town yet. I am also suspicious of Morgrim and wish we could hear from him. I'm really hoping that one of our roles besides Axxle had some success and just hasn't seen this yet.

And I would argue that Eevee was in fact Robz' main target for at least part of the time. Towards the end of the day, he was rallying to get Eevee lynched but not me. Another difference: Eevee jumped on the Robz bandwagon whereas I started it (at a time when there was absolutely zero suspicion of Robz). I'm not saying that Robz must be right because he was a townie and he's dead, he's completely wrong about suspecting me. But I think that in light of Eevee's opportunistic-looking voting and his "I'm a noob" attitude, he could have been on to something. Add to that Eevee comes out swinging against me day 2, and it makes me somewhat suspicious.

Also even though I really got a townie read day 1 on Voltgloss, I'm now less sure. Turns out his strong cases were against two non-mafias (he wouldn't have known jo was SK day 1). They were quite strong at the time, but I have to second guess now.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1027 on: June 09, 2012, 04:47:27 pm »

I also would like to remind everyone that I will be leaving for vacation on Friday, June 15. I will be back June 22. Sorry to miss some guys.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1028 on: June 09, 2012, 04:47:56 pm »

*Sorry to miss some mafia, guys.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1029 on: June 09, 2012, 05:28:36 pm »

Also even though I really got a townie read day 1 on Voltgloss, I'm now less sure. Turns out his strong cases were against two non-mafias (he wouldn't have known jo was SK day 1). They were quite strong at the time, but I have to second guess now.

True.  Also true that Dsell's strong cases Day 1 were against two non-mafia as well, both vanilla Town, one of which he helped lynch.  So I have to second guess Dsell as well.  Just like Robz was doing Day 1, before the Mafia killed him in the night.

In fact - am I right in recalling Robz was the biggest proponent of Dsell suspicion during Day 1?  If so, that may have something to do with why Robz was killed by the Mafia Night 1.

That all said, there is a Morgrim-shaped hole in this conversation that I think has to be filled before we can constructively debate today's action.  I see he hasn't logged into the forum since early yesterday (Friday) morning.  If he still hasn't posted by tomorrow (Sunday) morning, I'm thinking we will need to send him a prod.

Insomniac:  what is the lynch deadline?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1030 on: June 09, 2012, 06:46:55 pm »

The deadline is June 16 11:59pm PDT.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1031 on: June 09, 2012, 07:06:49 pm »

I agree with you. I don't strongly suspect Axxle, just wanted to point out that he's not rock-solid town yet. I am also suspicious of Morgrim and wish we could hear from him. I'm really hoping that one of our roles besides Axxle had some success and just hasn't seen this yet.

And I would argue that Eevee was in fact Robz' main target for at least part of the time. Towards the end of the day, he was rallying to get Eevee lynched but not me. Another difference: Eevee jumped on the Robz bandwagon whereas I started it (at a time when there was absolutely zero suspicion of Robz). I'm not saying that Robz must be right because he was a townie and he's dead, he's completely wrong about suspecting me. But I think that in light of Eevee's opportunistic-looking voting and his "I'm a noob" attitude, he could have been on to something. Add to that Eevee comes out swinging against me day 2, and it makes me somewhat suspicious.

Also even though I really got a townie read day 1 on Voltgloss, I'm now less sure. Turns out his strong cases were against two non-mafias (he wouldn't have known jo was SK day 1). They were quite strong at the time, but I have to second guess now.

Robz held both you and Eevee as suspicious and went after the latter because he already had a vote on him, whereas nobody else was suspicious of you at all.  You said Eevee came out swinging against you on day 2.  I went to find that quote, and here it is:

@Dsell
It really looks like you are trying to make everyone forget what happened between you and Robz yesterday. How does everyone else feel about Dsell's analysis that just starts "well, because I am town, ..."?? Seems to me like you are trying to make everyone assume that before anyone remembers to suspect you.

Too tired to start writing a longer post now.

First, that isn't exactly a major attack.  And Eevee has a point -- even now you are glossing over the fact that Robz was quite suspicious of you, instead focusing on what Robz had said against Eevee.  This isn't a new thing either.  Very early on day 2, you posted this:

[parts of this post snipped for brevity]

OK, so I guess a big question is why Robz?

That is my question too. It seems like a very odd choice because I was very suspicious of him (sorry Robz :( ), and I probably would have still been suspicious of him day 2. It could be to throw suspicion on Eevee, or it could even be that the mafia were worried about his strong suspicion of Eevee (i.e. Eevee is mafia).

And this:

I almost want to think they killed him because they thought he was a power role. He really doesn't seem like a great strategic choice. However, I think we should go on the assumption that there was strategic motivation because we don't get any information by assuming they were looking for a power role. It's possible the mafia is trying to confuse us.

I think that this kill should either make us much more or much less suspicious of Eevee. Yes, he had other suspects, but Eevee was who he was really gunning for. So either the mafia wanted to nip that suspicion in the bud (which seems like the obvious, not very sneaky play) or they want to validate his suspicions (which seems sneakier but perhaps more likely...I doubt we're working with "obvious" mafia). The first case would make Eevee mafia and the second case would make Eevee town. The mafia could have had other reasons though or they may have been really bluffing and want us to choose one of the above options.

I think all of the above should probably apply to myself to a lesser degree, as well as Voltgloss to an even lesser degree.

I think it's worth noting that you posted these before Eevee's post.  So if Eevee came out of the gates swinging for you, you did the same thing first.  Granted, you also mentioned the possiblity that they were throwing suspicion on Eevee, but your statements (especially recent) seem far more focused on Eevee being suspicious. 

I think it can be a bit misleading to focus solely on the votes.  I compiled the list because it's helpful, but it's important that we also look at the actual posts that were made as well.  On that front, I saw far more posts from you that felt off to me than I did from anyone else (other than Morgrim, who remains the most sketchy to me).  I'll have to go back and find those posts...
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1032 on: June 09, 2012, 08:25:07 pm »

Sorry people, have been gone for quite a while. But now I can post. By the way, the reason why I hammered Galz is because he had six votes and his looming death was being drawn out unnecessarily.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1033 on: June 09, 2012, 11:05:46 pm »

Sorry people, have been gone for quite a while. But now I can post. By the way, the reason why I hammered Galz is because he had six votes and his looming death was being drawn out unnecessarily.

Glad to hear from you.

You haven't answered questions about why you didn't comment on the Axxle Rolecop reveal when you apparently had been on the forum throughout that time period. Did you see the reveal?

I think the supposition that Galzria's death was imminent is debatable. I wasn't present during it, but form reviewing it there appeared to be some solid votes for him that were immovable, but I don't think it was certain.

OK, I can not take this anymore. Vote: Galzria even though I know you are town. Sorry Galz. Truly, I am.

The only way you could know someone is town is if you know who all the Mafia members are. The only people who know who all the Mafia members are, are the Mafia...

Please explain why you think lynching someone who you know is Town is better than 1. a no lynch or 2. letting someone else cast the hammer vote who isn't as sure about it.

In my eye casting the hammer vote on someone you know to be town is just as bad as self-lynching. Which you were opposed to.
Yay! Need one more people. See how the Mafia lead. Lynch Galzria!
Why are you doing this!?! Downvote, a million times.

So either you didn't really know Galzria was town and just said that to play it make it seem like you didn't want the flack if he was town. Or you did really know and made a mistake and put it into your post.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1034 on: June 09, 2012, 11:08:39 pm »

In retrospect I think voting for someone you know to be town isn't always as bad as a self-lynch. And I don't want to get into the debate about whether or not self-lynching is bad. I think in this game we have decided it is.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1035 on: June 09, 2012, 11:12:11 pm »

Morgrim did you see my post before getting offline? You were on when I posted it, but now 3 minutes later you are gone? Coincidence?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1036 on: June 10, 2012, 12:32:53 am »

Sorry people, have been gone for quite a while. But now I can post. By the way, the reason why I hammered Galz is because he had six votes and his looming death was being drawn out unnecessarily.

Glad to hear from you.

You haven't answered questions about why you didn't comment on the Axxle Rolecop reveal when you apparently had been on the forum throughout that time period. Did you see the reveal?

I think the supposition that Galzria's death was imminent is debatable. I wasn't present during it, but form reviewing it there appeared to be some solid votes for him that were immovable, but I don't think it was certain.

OK, I can not take this anymore. Vote: Galzria even though I know you are town. Sorry Galz. Truly, I am.

The only way you could know someone is town is if you know who all the Mafia members are. The only people who know who all the Mafia members are, are the Mafia...

Please explain why you think lynching someone who you know is Town is better than 1. a no lynch or 2. letting someone else cast the hammer vote who isn't as sure about it.

In my eye casting the hammer vote on someone you know to be town is just as bad as self-lynching. Which you were opposed to.
Yay! Need one more people. See how the Mafia lead. Lynch Galzria!
Why are you doing this!?! Downvote, a million times.

So either you didn't really know Galzria was town and just said that to play it make it seem like you didn't want the flack if he was town. Or you did really know and made a mistake and put it into your post.
And now to the suspicions. First off, yes, this is the first time I have read your post.
-Yes, I saw the reveal. I am a vanilla TOWNIE. Oh, and, how do we know Axxle is a rolecop again?
-Yes, I believe that Galz's lynching was imminent. Very. Why delay the inevitable?
-No, I did not know Galz was town. That was an expression. But from the past two Mafia, the people who voted for themselves to avoid suspicion were town. Now the Mafia will do the same...
-(how did I know I would get nailed for hammering Galz) 1)It is better than a no lynch (see statistics from MII)
2)Let someone who was not sure about dropping the hammer drop the hammer was exactly what I was doing.
-
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1037 on: June 10, 2012, 01:29:29 am »

Wow, feels like ages since I last posted here... With so many vanilla townies already dead (Galz, Rob, CFrisk and now Michaeljb) what are the chances that Morgrim is also vanilla town? It is growing more and more likely that he isn't with each passing death.

town roles also can lie and claim VT.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1038 on: June 10, 2012, 02:06:55 am »

Wow, feels like ages since I last posted here... With so many vanilla townies already dead (Galz, Rob, CFrisk and now Michaeljb) what are the chances that Morgrim is also vanilla town? It is growing more and more likely that he isn't with each passing death.

town roles also can lie and claim VT.

What do you mean by this?  If we trust Axxle (and I do) then Morgrim is either VT or Mafia Goon.  Or Godfather?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1039 on: June 10, 2012, 02:13:12 am »

Wow, feels like ages since I last posted here... With so many vanilla townies already dead (Galz, Rob, CFrisk and now Michaeljb) what are the chances that Morgrim is also vanilla town? It is growing more and more likely that he isn't with each passing death.

town roles also can lie and claim VT.

What do you mean by this?  If we trust Axxle (and I do) then Morgrim is either VT or Mafia Goon.  Or Godfather?

Was catching up sporadically and hadn't read Axxle's post..
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1040 on: June 10, 2012, 02:16:08 am »

And now to the suspicions. First off, yes, this is the first time I have read your post.
-Yes, I saw the reveal. I am a vanilla TOWNIE. Oh, and, how do we know Axxle is a rolecop again?
-Yes, I believe that Galz's lynching was imminent. Very. Why delay the inevitable?
-No, I did not know Galz was town. That was an expression. But from the past two Mafia, the people who voted for themselves to avoid suspicion were town. Now the Mafia will do the same...
-(how did I know I would get nailed for hammering Galz) 1)It is better than a no lynch (see statistics from MII)
2)Let someone who was not sure about dropping the hammer drop the hammer was exactly what I was doing.
-

What do you mean by the question of Axxle?  He claimed and there was no counterclaim, which is why I'm inclined to believe him.  If it turns out that he's Mafia and we had no cop at all, I will be extremely sad (and feel that the town was supremely underpowered).  If you have a case to make against Axxle, please make it.

Lynching townie is not better than no-lynch.  The stuff in MII was said by Robz and he was lying in that one!  Galzria made a case for it early in MIII but it doesn't account for SK or any protective roles we may have (not that they've been effective so far).

I am rather underwhelmed by your defense...

PPE @O -- OK, that makes sense.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1041 on: June 10, 2012, 03:59:48 am »

Also true that Dsell's strong cases Day 1 were against two non-mafia as well, both vanilla Town, one of which he helped lynch.  So I have to second guess Dsell as well.

This is almost true but I really didn't have two strong cases day 1. I had one very strong case (against Robz) and a very weak case. I fully admit that I bandwagoned on that one. It had become obvious to me that no one else was going to be lynched, and based on the cases put forward by others I thought there was a decent chance he was mafia. I thought the information we would get from lynching day 1 was important enough to take the risk that he was town.

Robz held both you and Eevee as suspicious and went after the latter because he already had a vote on him, whereas nobody else was suspicious of you at all.  You said Eevee came out swinging against you on day 2.  I went to find that quote, and here it is:

@Dsell
It really looks like you are trying to make everyone forget what happened between you and Robz yesterday. How does everyone else feel about Dsell's analysis that just starts "well, because I am town, ..."?? Seems to me like you are trying to make everyone assume that before anyone remembers to suspect you.

Too tired to start writing a longer post now.

First, that isn't exactly a major attack.  And Eevee has a point -- even now you are glossing over the fact that Robz was quite suspicious of you, instead focusing on what Robz had said against Eevee.  This isn't a new thing either.  Very early on day 2, you posted this:

[parts of this post snipped for brevity]

OK, so I guess a big question is why Robz?

That is my question too. It seems like a very odd choice because I was very suspicious of him (sorry Robz :( ), and I probably would have still been suspicious of him day 2. It could be to throw suspicion on Eevee, or it could even be that the mafia were worried about his strong suspicion of Eevee (i.e. Eevee is mafia).

And this:

I almost want to think they killed him because they thought he was a power role. He really doesn't seem like a great strategic choice. However, I think we should go on the assumption that there was strategic motivation because we don't get any information by assuming they were looking for a power role. It's possible the mafia is trying to confuse us.

I think that this kill should either make us much more or much less suspicious of Eevee. Yes, he had other suspects, but Eevee was who he was really gunning for. So either the mafia wanted to nip that suspicion in the bud (which seems like the obvious, not very sneaky play) or they want to validate his suspicions (which seems sneakier but perhaps more likely...I doubt we're working with "obvious" mafia). The first case would make Eevee mafia and the second case would make Eevee town. The mafia could have had other reasons though or they may have been really bluffing and want us to choose one of the above options.

I think all of the above should probably apply to myself to a lesser degree, as well as Voltgloss to an even lesser degree.

I think it's worth noting that you posted these before Eevee's post.  So if Eevee came out of the gates swinging for you, you did the same thing first.  Granted, you also mentioned the possiblity that they were throwing suspicion on Eevee, but your statements (especially recent) seem far more focused on Eevee being suspicious. 

In this case, I was truly unsure of whether this should make Eevee more suspicious or less. I did not intend to make a case against him, it was only afterwards when you posted the voting summary that I saw opportunism there. Furthermore, it's unfair to compare what I said about Eevee and what he said about me. I was pointing out that the mafia kill should make us either more or less suspicious about him. I stand by that. He accused me of doing something that I did not do (try to cover up the fact that Robz was suspicious of me) to make me look more suspicious.

I'm not sure what to say about Morgrim. He seems slightly suspicious to me but not overly so. Whoever we lynch, we must be extremely careful and take our time. We are in a must-not-lynch-town situation if the town can win. With 8 people left and 3 mafia a lynch of townie plus NK gives the mafia a win.

So here's the breakdown for me of everyone left:

Confirmed town:
Galzria
Robz
Captain_Frisk
Michaeljb
Dsell

Serial Killer:
Jotheonah

3 of the following are mafia:
O
eHalcyon
Morgrim
Yuma
Axxle
Voltgloss
Eevee

I know the above to be true, but that list will look different for the rest of you because 4 of you can't know that I'm town. For those 4 others of you who are town please take the time to make the right decision today.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1042 on: June 10, 2012, 04:08:03 am »

Also, I am less suspicious of both O and Axxle (but I'm by no means sure of their townness). O because he gave himself a 50/50 shot at getting killed and Axxle because he has had no counterclaims and led to the lynching of the SK.

I do not want to advocate this yet but I am potentially ok with no lynch today to give our roles another night to work. It would give us another day to gather information. The only way we have any chance to win (basically, I guess a jailer could get lucky and jail the mafia who performs the NK) is if we lynch mafia. Lynching town today or day 4 means we lose.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1043 on: June 10, 2012, 04:12:56 am »

a misslynch then a town-role saving isn't game over I believe.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1044 on: June 10, 2012, 04:22:56 am »

a misslynch then a town-role saving isn't game over I believe.

Yes, this is correct. So either blocking the mafia kill or a PR saving the targeted townie would get us to day 4 after a mislynch.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1045 on: June 10, 2012, 12:17:03 pm »

Thoughts on Morgrim: I told the mafia I would be investigating Morgrim.  Why not kill him?  If he was a town role it would exonerate him, why kill michael instead?  Morgrim would just as likely be a town role, unless Mafia also has a rolecop and checked Morgrim (I see no reason why they would).

Vote: Morgrim
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1046 on: June 10, 2012, 12:17:59 pm »

a misslynch then a town-role saving isn't game over I believe.
Are we that close to losing? Can I see the math? I'd do it myself but I'm a bit busy this morning.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1047 on: June 10, 2012, 12:54:12 pm »

Quote from: Morgrim7
-Yes, I saw the reveal. I am a vanilla TOWNIE. Oh, and, how do we know Axxle is a rolecop again?
But why didn't you comment on it?
Quote from: Morgrim7
-Yes, I believe that Galz's lynching was imminent. Very. Why delay the inevitable?
-No, I did not know Galz was town. That was an expression.
This sounds like hedging... You want everyone to think that you thought he was town, but voted for him, so that when he turned up town you could say, "see, I told you was town" and hope everyone forgot that you voted for him.
Quote from: Morgrim7
1)It is better than a no lynch (see statistics from MII)
No, this was disputed again and again in this game. But again I don't want another argument about this. Your other strange behaviors are more important than this.
Quote from: Morgrim7
2)Let someone who was not sure about dropping the hammer drop the hammer was exactly what I was doing.
And now we are looking heavily at you...

I am agreeing with Axxle, who is looking more and more like a cop as time passes.

I have been suspicious of Morgrim all game. He has failed again and again to address my suspicions instead allowing others to make the crazy claim for him. Is there anyone out there still convinced about that?

Vote: Morgrim7
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1048 on: June 10, 2012, 01:31:45 pm »

@Axxle

There are 8 of us left, including 3 mafia.

5 townies  ---  3 mafia

-1 townie (mislynch)
-1 townie (NK, unless mafia is jailed or the right townie is protected)

3 townies  ---  3 mafia

Mafia wins.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1049 on: June 10, 2012, 01:34:41 pm »

Isn't voting highly dangerous in MILO?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1050 on: June 10, 2012, 01:40:26 pm »

The no-lynch math looks correct, but leaves me with another question.  Dsell, why did you say you "did not want to advocate this [no-lynch] yet?"  What is holding you back from voting No Lynch?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1051 on: June 10, 2012, 01:43:03 pm »

Isn't voting highly dangerous in MILO?
Sorry I don't understand "MILO"
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1052 on: June 10, 2012, 01:43:31 pm »

Sorry I cant quote, anyway...
-The reason why I did not say anythig when Axxle told everyone that I am Vanilla, is because, well, he was right. I am a vanilla townie.
-Galz voted for himself. He retained his vote even when he had six votes on him. Would a Mafia do this?
-I voted for Galzria for reasons stated above.

Oh, and, does nobody but me find it odd that the Mafia did not kill Axxle even though they knew he was rolecop? Is it because he was a Mafia rolecop? What were they hoping to gain by not killing him? After all, besides J, a bunch of Vanilla townies have been killed. A better targed would be a "confirmed" town role like Axxle. And yet he survived. So what was to gain? Info about me? Then why did Axxle give them what they want?
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I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1053 on: June 10, 2012, 01:45:12 pm »

YES it takes 5 to lynch so if those two are town and Morgrim is town the mafia could hammer right now. Really early to have 2 votes guys...
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1054 on: June 10, 2012, 01:45:54 pm »

MILO: If misslynch, then loss (probably)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1055 on: June 10, 2012, 01:46:56 pm »

Sorry I cant quote, anyway...
-The reason why I did not say anythig when Axxle told everyone that I am Vanilla, is because, well, he was right. I am a vanilla townie.

Maybe you aren't understanding. When Axxle revealed that he was RoleCop and outed J. Did you see that reveal? If you did, why didn't you respond? You were the only player not to comment throughout that entire day. Your profile made it seem that you had been on the forum but neglected to post anything about Axxle being RoleCop.

That is my biggest question and the one you still haven't answered.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1056 on: June 10, 2012, 01:47:35 pm »

The no-lynch math looks correct, but leaves me with another question.  Dsell, why did you say you "did not want to advocate this [no-lynch] yet?"  What is holding you back from voting No Lynch?

It's very possible that we'll get enough information this week to lynch mafia, which is ideal. However, no lynch is MUCH better than lynching town because that is basically an insta-lose scenario for the town. No lynch would give us another week to analyze and another night for power roles to work.

My last post was @O, btw (and the people who had voted Morgrim.)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1057 on: June 10, 2012, 01:48:45 pm »

MILO: If misslynch, then loss (probably)
YES it takes 5 to lynch so if those two are town and Morgrim is town the mafia could hammer right now. Really early to have 2 votes guys...

You are absolutely right.

unvote:Morgrim

If this is how people feel should we be voting no lynch?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1058 on: June 10, 2012, 01:51:13 pm »

I'm not quite sure about claiming right now- we do have roleblockers, and I'm already the closest thing we have to a confirmed town. What do others think?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1059 on: June 10, 2012, 01:54:57 pm »

I'm not quite sure about claiming right now- we do have roleblockers, and I'm already the closest thing we have to a confirmed town. What do others think?

You mean have everyone just state their role immediately? I was thinking about this too but it seems like it might be something that can wait for later in the week? But I'm actually fine with it.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1060 on: June 10, 2012, 02:02:27 pm »

Vote Count 3-1

Morgrim7 (1) - Axxle

Not Voting (7) - O, DSell, Morgrim7, Eevee, Voltgloss, eHalcyon, yuma

With 8 Alive it takes 5 to lynch.

The deadline is June 16 11:59pm PDT
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #1061 on: June 10, 2012, 02:10:40 pm »

Along with the above posts I am becoming more and more wary of Morgrim7 behavior. I think I will join C. Frisk--whose vote I agree with--and O--whose vote I don't--in voting for Morgrim7.

Status:
Suspicious: Galzria, Morgrim7
Not suspicious: none
Vote: Morgrim7

I'm just gonna throw this quote out there and see where it leads us...
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1062 on: June 10, 2012, 02:11:17 pm »

I'm not quite sure about claiming right now- we do have roleblockers, and I'm already the closest thing we have to a confirmed town. What do others think?

You mean have everyone just state their role immediately? I was thinking about this too but it seems like it might be something that can wait for later in the week? But I'm actually fine with it.

If this starts happening, how should a Town Doctor respond?  Do we want to tell the Mafia exactly who they should target during the night?

Also, we don't actually know we have any Roleblockers available in this closed setup (at least based on the information made public so far).
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1063 on: June 10, 2012, 02:13:04 pm »

FWIW, I was not on the forum at all the past few days (omitting yesterday evening). I have been really busy with work, and have not been able to get on at all. The person who was on my account was my sister. She could not get on her account for some reason, so I lent her mine temporarily. So not be alarmed, she did not post anything.

Anyway, yuma, the reason why I did not respond to th revealing was, well, what was there to say that has not aready been said?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1064 on: June 10, 2012, 02:14:37 pm »

I am heading out and will be gone for the rest of the day. My vote is off so no worry there.

Pre-post edit:

Dsell I saw your post but don't have the time to respond to it. Not sure what sort of a response you want? I'll get to it when I get back--most likely tomorrow morning.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1065 on: June 10, 2012, 02:19:36 pm »

ALIVE
O
def
Dsell
Morgrim7
Eevee
Voltgloss
eHalcyon
yuma

DEAD
Galzria - Vanilla Townie - Lynched Day 1
Robz888 - Vanilla Townie - Killed in Night 1
Captain_Frisk - Vanilla Townie - Killed in Night 1
jotheonah - Serial Killer - Lynched Day 2
Michaeljb - Vanilla Townie -Killed in Night 2


CLAIM: I AM VANILLA TOWNIE #5.


I don't know if Insomniac is a really crappy mod or something, but if he is we as town are screwed anyways and can blame him after the game.  ;D

We have at least 5 Vanilla Townies. We had a Serial Killer. We can probably assume that there are 3 mafia; if there are less, we might misslynch this/next week and give up a potential advantage, but we'll have more breathing room anyways.

13 people, 3 mafia, 1 SK, 5 Vanilla townie... that leaves 4 (hopefully, or screw you insomnaic) town-aligned people, of which... lets say at least two, and probably three have power roles. Hopefully/small chance that 4 do. (once again... or screw you insomniac)

Currently we're at 3/8 for lynching mafia. Lets look at possible scenarios and (assuming for now Axxle is telling the truth) the probabilities that Morgrim is mafia.

5+ VT, 0+ vanilla scum: Revive and lynch insomniac endgame
5 VT, 1+ vanilla scum: Morgrim is mafia
6 VT, 1 vanilla scum: 50% chance Morgrim is mafia
6 VT, 2 vanilla scum: 66% chance that Morgrim is mafia
6 VT, 3 vanilla scum: Mafia NK insomniac, 75% chance morgrim is mafia
7 VT, 1 vanilla scum: Lynch insomnaic, 33% chance Morgrim is mafia
7 VT, 2 vanilla scum: 50% chance
7 VT, 3 vanilla scum: wat. 60% chance Morgrim is mafia
8+ VT: ragequit.
Morgrim is the second non-mafia that investigates vanilla (SK was dumb enough): Kill insomniac, then ragequit.

These probabilities of course go off of a lot of assumptions: Me and Axxle are both telling the truth.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1066 on: June 10, 2012, 02:26:18 pm »

I AM VANILLA TOWNIE #6.

I was getting increasingly surprised by how many vanillas were turning up. The only shred of evidence I have for this is that after I posted about leaving for vacation on June 16, Insomniac posted that the day will end June 17 and said nothing about an extended night or anything. I can't prove that he would do this even if I had a night role and it's possible that he just didn't see my post but if I were mafia you'd think he would want me to be able to perform a night action or something. (I hope it's not too meta to use what the mod does as evidence within the game)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1067 on: June 10, 2012, 02:26:58 pm »

Er, move those days back one each. I am leaving the 15th and the day is ending the 16th.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1068 on: June 10, 2012, 02:29:42 pm »

Ok,I know who is mafia now. Vote: O.
You are lying when you say you are vanilla townie, unless there 6 vanilla townies and I know for sure I am one.
I AM VANILLA TOWNIE #6. O IS MAFIA
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1069 on: June 10, 2012, 02:32:29 pm »

Ok,I know who is mafia now. Vote: O.
You are lying when you say you are vanilla townie, unless there 6 vanilla townies and I know for sure I am one.
I AM VANILLA TOWNIE #6. O IS MAFIA

The problem with this is that way back in day 1, he gave himself a 50/50 shot at being killed by the one-shot vigilante/serial killer (jo). This makes sense for a vanilla townie to do but much less sense for mafia to do. O is pretty crazy, but I don't think he's THAT crazy (if he's mafia. It's not crazy if he's VT because better him than one of our PRs).
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1070 on: June 10, 2012, 02:34:33 pm »

Ok,I know who is mafia now. Vote: O.
You are lying when you say you are vanilla townie, unless there 6 vanilla townies and I know for sure I am one.
I AM VANILLA TOWNIE #6. O IS MAFIA

I'm sorry you felt you had to do this move. Either you're mafia and if I have my reads on others correctly (I do hope they believe me) you just got yourself lynched or your town and you got yourself lynched while accusing another town.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1071 on: June 10, 2012, 03:00:44 pm »

any time you want to jump in, volt..
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1072 on: June 10, 2012, 03:03:19 pm »

In post #169 Insomniac specified that there are 3 Mafia.

Can someone please explain to me why we want to massclaim now?  I can see massclaiming when we're at lynch-right-or-lose - when we have nothing to lose from all power roles outing themselves - but that's not the situation we're in:  the situation is mislynch-and-lose.  If we ultimately vote "no lynch" we go into Night 3 with 8 people alive, and can expect to reach Day 4 intact.  But why would we want to tip off to the Mafia who the Town's protective role(s) are before we get to Night 3?  Doesn't that just let them guide their Night 3 kill to where it will do us the most damage?

I'm happy to go along with this if someone can please explain what benefit the Town gets from it.  So far I haven't seen that.  I've only seen "should we do this?" from O and "eh, I guess" from Dsell (heavily paraphased). 

Pre-post Edit:  And I just saw Morgrim's latest.  Which flat-out does not make sense to me.  To my eye, the most likely explanation for Morgrim's actions is that he has affirmatively decided to the play the "crazy" card to the hilt.  And that has me more worried he IS in fact Mafia, and that he and/or his compatriots have affirmatively decided "Morgrim's only chance is the crazy defense, so Morgrim, go all out with the crazy, and if it works, great."  Because his latest accusation of O is, by any reckoning, crazy.  Not just for the reason Dsell cited, but also for the simple reason that Morgrim's supposedly being VT would not preclude O from being VT as well

Dsell, I would like to hear whether Morgrim's latest makes him more or less suspicious in your eyes.

Pre-pre-post Edit:  Jumped, O.  Would have posted half an hour ago but had to figure out my thoughts on Morgrim first when I tried to post the first time and "3 new replies" came up.

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1073 on: June 10, 2012, 03:13:35 pm »

@Voltgloss

Actually I think one of the biggest benefits of everyone claiming is that if we decide to do it the mafia would have to make some sort of claim to, which could be very helpful in performing a successful lynch. I wasn't gonna claim unless someone else did. I guess from a strategic standpoint I may prefer no lynch (to be determined later) but I am also fine with having stuff happen in this game and keeping it lively. If everyone roleclaims we can potentially figure out the best thing to do at night. But again, I think the best benefit is to make the mafia squirm. So for that reason, I'd be fine with mass claiming right now.

My thoughts on Morgrim: Really unsure. I think he's being crazy as usual, but that concerns me. It doesn't look good for him but I think there is still a real chance he is town. And even if he is mafia, there are two others. Lynching one of them may very well be the safer bet.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1074 on: June 10, 2012, 03:16:04 pm »

In post #169 Insomniac specified that there are 3 Mafia.

Can someone please explain to me why we want to massclaim now?  I can see massclaiming when we're at lynch-right-or-lose - when we have nothing to lose from all power roles outing themselves - but that's not the situation we're in:  the situation is mislynch-and-lose.  If we ultimately vote "no lynch" we go into Night 3 with 8 people alive, and can expect to reach Day 4 intact.  But why would we want to tip off to the Mafia who the Town's protective role(s) are before we get to Night 3?  Doesn't that just let them guide their Night 3 kill to where it will do us the most damage?

I'm happy to go along with this if someone can please explain what benefit the Town gets from it.  So far I haven't seen that.  I've only seen "should we do this?" from O and "eh, I guess" from Dsell (heavily paraphased). 

Pre-post Edit:  And I just saw Morgrim's latest.  Which flat-out does not make sense to me.  To my eye, the most likely explanation for Morgrim's actions is that he has affirmatively decided to the play the "crazy" card to the hilt.  And that has me more worried he IS in fact Mafia, and that he and/or his compatriots have affirmatively decided "Morgrim's only chance is the crazy defense, so Morgrim, go all out with the crazy, and if it works, great."  Because his latest accusation of O is, by any reckoning, crazy.  Not just for the reason Dsell cited, but also for the simple reason that Morgrim's supposedly being VT would not preclude O from being VT as well

Dsell, I would like to hear whether Morgrim's latest makes him more or less suspicious in your eyes.

Pre-pre-post Edit:  Jumped, O.  Would have posted half an hour ago but had to figure out my thoughts on Morgrim first when I tried to post the first time and "3 new replies" came up.

Nolynch has consequences:

1) Mafia can have powerroles that mean NK is loss-unless-saved (One-shot extra kill, convert one townie, etc.)
2) We lose our buffer of a misslynch then a save and move directly to Lylo
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1075 on: June 10, 2012, 03:19:45 pm »

I dont like mass claim at this point because if we only have one protection townie and mislynch we are guanteed to lose.  We already started but I'm pretty sure that one of the VTs are mafia.  7 VTs are a lot with an SK.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1076 on: June 10, 2012, 03:21:19 pm »

Do we know theres 3a mafia?  2 is still possible right? Let's not assume.  On phone and can only post quickly.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1077 on: June 10, 2012, 03:22:00 pm »

I vote no more claims, we have what we need. Either Dsell or Morgrim or both are mafia, add me in for those suspicious of my claim.

If Morgrim is VT and just crazy voted for me (and as I know I'm also VT...)



So yea, I'm pretty close to being ready to vote morgrim.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1078 on: June 10, 2012, 03:23:02 pm »

I think Morgrim is definitely the most likely of the three of us to be mafia. O for the reasons I listed above, and I listed my reasons in the post itself. Morgrim gave no evidence.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1079 on: June 10, 2012, 03:23:31 pm »

I'm certain that Insomniac posted somewhere that there are 3 mafia. Let me see if I can find it somewhere.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #1080 on: June 10, 2012, 03:25:47 pm »

There are 3 Mafia.

I will not list the roles that are available but there is nothing too crazy I promise.

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch

(13) Everyone - Not Voting

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1081 on: June 10, 2012, 04:30:28 pm »

On phone. I reiterate quickly that I suspect Morgrim7, then Dell. I trust O and Axxle.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1082 on: June 10, 2012, 04:36:04 pm »

Axxle -/- Morgrim

O -/- Morgrim

Yuma -/?- Morgrim

Voltgloss -?- Morgrim

eHalcyon -?- Morgrim

/ represents that it's extremely unlikely that these two could be mafia pairs (because of recent votes as well as strong suspicion)

? represents that one of these people has expressed very strong doubts about the other and I believe that it's very unlikely that the two could be a mafia pair. Yuma gets both because he voted for Morgrim but unvoted. Still unlikely but not completely impossible for them to be mafia partners.

This worries me because if Morgrim is mafia, this means that all of the others above are very likely to be town, but that's too many people when you include me. Either one of the others up there are mafia and sneakily hedging about Morgrim or Morgrim is town. This is uncomfortable for me.

Be gone for a while.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1083 on: June 10, 2012, 04:38:53 pm »

It's pretty clear one of two things is happening: Morgrim is being bussed, or Morgrim is town.

I think Morgrim was the pretty clear lynch choice so I find it more likely that he's being bussed.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1084 on: June 10, 2012, 05:02:32 pm »

It's pretty clear one of two things is happening: Morgrim is being bussed, or Morgrim is town.

I think Morgrim was the pretty clear lynch choice so I find it more likely that he's being bussed.

Agreed.  Morgrim-as-mafia puts his mafia partners in a tricky bind:  he (Morgrim) is the most likely suspect going into Day 3, and if they BOTH come to his defense (and fail) they put red flags on themselves for the next two Town days.  I am not surprised to see one potential scumpartner coming to Morgrim's defense - albeit obliquely (Dsell) - and the other scumpartner (whoever it is) voting/publicly suspecting Morgrim.  It's a way to take the town's temperature and see if bussing is necessary, without overtly revealing his scumpartners.  (Even Dsell, his biggest defender, has done so in a hedging, "it doesn't look good but he could be town"-kind of way that leaves him room to backpedal come Day 4 if/when Morgrim is lynched and flips mafia.)

I would like to hear further from Morgrim before voting, as if he has something further to say in his defense he should get that opportunity.  But if what he has to say isn't convincing to me - or if he goes AWOL for another 24 or so hours - then I will vote (barring some other dramatic event occurring, of course).
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1085 on: June 10, 2012, 05:07:58 pm »

apologies, i've been super busy (still am), just chiming in quickly to state my stance.

i find morgrim really suspicious / the most likely mafia (and btw see no reason to not trust axxle), but think we need to be very careful with our votes at this point.

morgrim, now would be a great time to defend yourself!

fake edit: voltgloss just posted this exact same thing, lol.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1086 on: June 10, 2012, 05:20:58 pm »

Will someone please make an orderly list about why you suspect me? That way I can make an orderly rebuttle.
And one more thing. If you must lynch me, go ahead. Keep in mind, though, that if you do lynch me, and the mafia kill someone, then the next day you cannot make anymore mistakes or the mafia win.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1087 on: June 10, 2012, 05:23:38 pm »

Will someone please make an orderly list about why you suspect me? That way I can make an orderly rebuttle.
And one more thing. If you must lynch me, go ahead. Keep in mind, though, that if you do lynch me, and the mafia kill someone, then the next day you cannot make anymore mistakes or the mafia win.

If we lynch a townie, and the mafia kill someone, then the mafia win.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1088 on: June 10, 2012, 05:26:47 pm »

Will someone please make an orderly list about why you suspect me? That way I can make an orderly rebuttle.
And one more thing. If you must lynch me, go ahead. Keep in mind, though, that if you do lynch me, and the mafia kill someone, then the next day you cannot make anymore mistakes or the mafia win.

If we lynch a townie, and the mafia kill someone, then the mafia win.
But "if [we] lynch [Morgrim], and the mafia kill someone, then the next day we cannot make anymore mistakes or the mafia win." :)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1089 on: June 10, 2012, 05:29:40 pm »

Alright. No time for Galzria-Style derails where people become unconvinced of the obvious.

Vote: Morgrim

I invite you townies and bussers to follow me.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #1090 on: June 10, 2012, 08:29:25 pm »

Along with the above posts I am becoming more and more wary of Morgrim7 behavior. I think I will join C. Frisk--whose vote I agree with--and O--whose vote I don't--in voting for Morgrim7.

Status:
Suspicious: Galzria, Morgrim7
Not suspicious: none
Vote: Morgrim7

I'm just gonna throw this quote out there and see where it leads us...

I don't see the point of you quoting this quote...
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1091 on: June 10, 2012, 09:18:23 pm »

Alright. No time for Galzria-Style derails where people become unconvinced of the obvious.

Vote: Morgrim

I invite you townies and bussers to follow me.
Still waiting for my list to rebut…
Kind of find it odd that you are voting without presenting evidence.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1092 on: June 10, 2012, 09:43:22 pm »

Going over stuff I'd read earlier but didn't respond to due to being on the phone.
 
Ok,I know who is mafia now. Vote: O.
You are lying when you say you are vanilla townie, unless there 6 vanilla townies and I know for sure I am one.
I AM VANILLA TOWNIE #6. O IS MAFIA

This is just odd.  I agree with Voltgloss' assessment that maybe Morgrim is just playing the crazy card.  My question is why Morgrim picks on O but not Dsell.  If Morgrim is lynched and flips Mafia, that is going to lead into some terrible WIFOM thinking.

@Voltgloss

Actually I think one of the biggest benefits of everyone claiming is that if we decide to do it the mafia would have to make some sort of claim to, which could be very helpful in performing a successful lynch. I wasn't gonna claim unless someone else did. I guess from a strategic standpoint I may prefer no lynch (to be determined later) but I am also fine with having stuff happen in this game and keeping it lively. If everyone roleclaims we can potentially figure out the best thing to do at night. But again, I think the best benefit is to make the mafia squirm. So for that reason, I'd be fine with mass claiming right now.

My thoughts on Morgrim: Really unsure. I think he's being crazy as usual, but that concerns me. It doesn't look good for him but I think there is still a real chance he is town. And even if he is mafia, there are two others. Lynching one of them may very well be the safer bet.

I don't see the benefit of massclaim at all.  At this point, I think it's doubtful that the Mafia would claim any power roles -- they will all claim Vanilla.



So of the people that are still alive, I trust O and Axxle and am convinced of Morgrim being scum.  I think this is the general town attitude as well now. I sincerely think that if any of these reads are wrong, we are screwed and the Mafia has played a brilliant game.

I can't really figure out Eevee, Voltgloss or yuma.  None of them have made a big impression on me.  Of these three, I'm least suspicious of Voltgloss.

I am very suspicious of Dsell.  Just a great deal of his posts feel far too hedgy to me.  It doesn't sit well with me at all.  He built a big strong case against Robz but since then he's been especially middle-ground.  Some odd things:

546: he tells Galzria not to panic about Robz getting lynched, and goes on to describe a scenario wherein four townies are killed as if it wouldn't be a big deal.

626: he posts about Eevee being a "professional poker player" and goes on to imply that maybe Eevee is Mafia playing us all, or maybe he's just a nice guy.  Just a very wishy-washy statement, though the general sense seems to be a defense of Eevee against Robz.

688: here he says that he could be convinced to vote for Eevee (again bringing up that "professional poker player" thing that just makes no sense to me as any sort of argument).  Again, the tone is very middle-ground.

823: his vote on Galzria is just so apologetic, as if it's already trying to make excuses for when Galzria turns up town (and I just remembered that Robz called out similar behaviour in his posts against him).

856: during twilight, after Galzria was lynched, he implores the town to consider who was FOR and AGAINST lynching Galzria.  It sounded to me like he was setting up suspicious against those who drove the wagon (myself and O, I guess?) even though it's usually less likely for Mafia to take such a bold stance.  The only person really against lynching Galzria, so far as I can remember, was Robz.  And the Mafia killed him that night.  Meanwhile, Dsell was safely in the middle ground.

And for other reference, some posts by Robz regarding/in response to Dsell: 338, 426, 471, 534, 558, 828.

I just wanted to get this stuff out there, in case I die tonight.

Anyway -- VOTE: MORGRIM.





For your reference, Morgrim... there have been several points brought up against you.  You've already responded to some, but they haven't been very convincing to me.  You can refer back to my post #1008.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1093 on: June 10, 2012, 09:53:02 pm »

Hey, did we ever actually discuss why michaeljb was NK'd?  Just looked back, and it doesn't seem like we did.

We've been caught up discussing Morgrim.  Aside from general recap posts, mjb hasn't really been mentioned.  The only post I can find is one of Axxle's, and he wasn't asking "why michael?" so much as "why not Morgrim?"

mjb's last post was #1011, and it was fairly substantial.  In that post, he lays suspicion on those who voted down Galzria who were still alive.  For reference, that list is: eHalcyon, O, jotheonah, Eevee, Dsell, Morgrim7.  mjb posited that at least one is Mafia, quite possibly two, maybe even all three.

I responded to his post with something of a defense.  Nobody else responded to it, but then Eevee hammered jo and we went into night.  And then mjb was dead, and his post was forgotten.

Thoughts?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1094 on: June 10, 2012, 10:01:50 pm »

Vote Count 3-1

Morgrim7 (3) - Axxle, O, eHalcyon
O (1) - Morgrim7

Not Voting (4) - DSell, Eevee, Voltgloss, yuma

With 8 Alive it takes 5 to lynch.

The deadline is June 16 11:59pm PDT
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1095 on: June 10, 2012, 10:07:15 pm »

Morgrim, in addition to eHalcyon's post #1008, the case against you has most recently been buttressed by your vote against O.  See various players' responses - Dsell's #1069, my #1072, and eHalcyon's #1092.  Morgrim, I see you are presently online, and so will defer voting one more time to let you respond to these points.  If you have something further to say, now is most definitely the time we need to hear it.

eHal:  I think mjb may have been nightkilled, not just because of his post (which as you note voices suspicion at Morgrim along with others), but because he was the least suspicious among us.  I don't think he ever even voted for a confirmed townie (haven't checked this, but it's my recollection).  Can any of the rest of us remaining claim that?  (again, haven't checked)  I would expect the Mafia to nightkill the people they think they will have the hardest time getting lynched during the day, and someone who has never made a confirmed anti-town vote would seem to fall within that category.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1096 on: June 10, 2012, 10:07:54 pm »

i actually didnt realize i was hammering joh. i wouldnt have minded doing it - but i would have given ehalcyon a chance to make his post and stuff before voting.

michaeldb was probably NK'd just because he want being suspected at all? "kill someone they wont lynch tomorrow anyways". i cant think of any other implications at least. anyone else?

ive been checking in every three hours or so to see if morgrim has done anything to make me less sure he is scum... and he hasnt. the fact that he hasnt gotten enough votes yet makes me even more confident he is mafia so vote: morgrim.

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1097 on: June 10, 2012, 10:09:48 pm »

thiswouldbeaneditbutuh: i seem to be developing a habit of posting similar stuff at a similar time with voltgloss. well, i think his posts are generally good and smart so yay for that i guess. :)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1098 on: June 10, 2012, 10:14:58 pm »

i actually didnt realize i was hammering joh. i wouldnt have minded doing it - but i would have given ehalcyon a chance to make his post and stuff before voting.

Do you mean Dsell?  I don't think I had any other post I wanted to make that day.  Dsell said he was going to name someone he thought should be investigated, but he didn't have the chance.  At the start of day 3, he named you. :P
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1099 on: June 10, 2012, 10:18:12 pm »

Morgrim these are the reasons:
1) You voted for Galzria "Knowing he's town." They will talk about this one true hedge to rule them all for generations to come. I will take into consideration that the deadline was coming and you may have panicked.
2) You lurked for the entirety of Day 2.  You have an explanation for that and your confusion as to what happens adds weight to the reason.  I will take that into account.
3) You accuse O with no explanation.
4) Your other voting habits haven't been the best.  I noticed you voted for O and J yesterday.  Your reasons for O were weak and you didn't add to the J conversation.
5) Without giving much additional explanation as to why people should vote for J, you tried scaring someone into the J vote by writing "Thirty Minutes."  It turns out it was 12 hours left, an honest mistake to make.
6) You were not killed on Night 2, when you could have very much been exonerated for being a role.  And mafia are trying to kill roles.  The only reason they know a role wouldn't pop up is if you're a Mafia Goon or a Mafia Godfather or if a Mafia Rolecop had previously checked you, which I very much doubt Night 1.
7ish) Notice how many times I've had to say "maybe it's a mistake" or "maybe you have an explanation"  THose are adding up.



I agree with eHalcyon that DSell's quote of yuma just seems really weird.  Some explanation would be very appreciated.

@eHalcyon: If Morgrim flipping mafia creates some terrible WIFOM, that's exactly what Mafia wants.  Mafia could all just claim Vanilla... but then we'd know they're the vanilla ones.  The bigger issue is protecting our protection roles. 

PEdit: @eHalcyon: I thought about asking it, but I thought that why not Morgrim got to the point of the question better.  I think mjb was just too town.  Maybe they hoped his pleas would get lost.  Maybe they wanted put up the front of hiding their tracks.  I have to say I don't like the idea of the Galz wagon and will have to go back and read it.

With Eevee's vote Morgrim is at L-1, be careful all.

Hmm... I'm going to unvote to let Morgrim answer, I really doubt he'll say anything to change my mind but I want to see what he has to say.  But I don't want someone like Eevee accidentally hammering prematurely (which is suspicious by the way)

Unvote
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1100 on: June 10, 2012, 10:19:04 pm »

Oh, and did I miss anything about Morgrim that makes him scum?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1101 on: June 10, 2012, 10:21:03 pm »

i actually didnt realize i was hammering joh. i wouldnt have minded doing it - but i would have given ehalcyon a chance to make his post and stuff before voting.

Do you mean Dsell?  I don't think I had any other post I wanted to make that day.  Dsell said he was going to name someone he thought should be investigated, but he didn't have the chance.  At the start of day 3, he named you. :P
right, sorry about that.

i think axxle/any cop we have should investigate whoever they find the most suspicous.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1102 on: June 10, 2012, 10:27:01 pm »

i stand by my vote to joh, he seemed like a super obvious not-town (he was). i mean, i dont mind lynching someone who in the worst case is a serial killer.


..that being said, i should keep better track of how many votes it takes to lynch. shouldnt distract the town by making mistakes like that, confusion works for mafias favour.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1103 on: June 10, 2012, 10:33:04 pm »

@eHalcyon: If Morgrim flipping mafia creates some terrible WIFOM, that's exactly what Mafia wants.  Mafia could all just claim Vanilla... but then we'd know they're the vanilla ones.  The bigger issue is protecting our protection roles. 

PEdit: @eHalcyon: I thought about asking it, but I thought that why not Morgrim got to the point of the question better.  I think mjb was just too town.  Maybe they hoped his pleas would get lost.  Maybe they wanted put up the front of hiding their tracks.  I have to say I don't like the idea of the Galz wagon and will have to go back and read it.

If Morgrim flips town, his claim is meaningless (and... the game is over anyway?  the math is still unclear to me).  If Morgrim flips Mafia, the question is whether he is accusing O because he doesn't want to accuse a Mafia partner (Dsell) or because O truly is Mafia and he's setting up the WIFOM.  From Morgrim's play so far, I would suspect the former rather than the latter.  I also think that O has enough stuff going for him that we have to trust him... and if he is Mafia, we're screwed.  Did I post that before?  Because I keep thinking it. :P

The explanations for mjb make sense.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1104 on: June 10, 2012, 10:34:19 pm »

I'm not going to give an elaborate defense here, but to adress what Volt, eHal, and some others have said about me having hedgy behavior. This game, I have been very confused. Day 1 things were very clear to me. I had a suspicion of Robz early that grew with everything he said. I trusted my gut about him in Mafia II and was right. Trusting my gut in Mafia III turned out to really do me in day 1. Day 2 I was encouraged because we had something to go on: Jo looked really guilty, and it turns out he was. Killing the Serial Killer was great but it unfortunately got us no real information since he was essentially on "his own team." Day 3 we don't have much new information. Day 2 was short and dominated by discussion of jo. I think the mafia have done a good job in this game at misdirecting us. I for one am quite confused today and I'm actually unsure how others seem much more confident. I mean yes I see the case against Morgrim but I don't think it's strong enough that we can confidently hammer him and risk losing right there.

I think everyone should be "hedgy" today in the sense that the townies simply don't have a lot of information here (unless there are other roles that haven't revealed their info yet). I know this makes me look suspicious but we really need to not hurry here. We have to make the right choice. Morgrim might be the right choice but I think we should post more, get more reactions to be sure.

In terms of the yuma post, I just put it there because I was pointing out that yuma has voted for Morgrim in the past. It could have been an early attempt to get a bandwagon rolling. Or it might not have been. But Morgrim, Eevee, and O are the only people alive (I believe) who've had more than a single vote on them, and in Morgrim's case, O cast the first vote (random I think) but yuma cast the third. It looks a little suspicious in hindsight, but really I'm at the stage where a LOT looks suspicious to me. Morgrim also voted for O way back when and O also voted for Eevee.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1105 on: June 10, 2012, 10:36:04 pm »

I've also played a really, really, really bad game if I'm mafia. Most recently, blatantly defending Morgrim (even though I'm really not, I just think we shouldn't be hasty).
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1106 on: June 10, 2012, 10:38:37 pm »

@eHalcyon: If Morgrim flipping mafia creates some terrible WIFOM, that's exactly what Mafia wants.  Mafia could all just claim Vanilla... but then we'd know they're the vanilla ones.  The bigger issue is protecting our protection roles. 

PEdit: @eHalcyon: I thought about asking it, but I thought that why not Morgrim got to the point of the question better.  I think mjb was just too town.  Maybe they hoped his pleas would get lost.  Maybe they wanted put up the front of hiding their tracks.  I have to say I don't like the idea of the Galz wagon and will have to go back and read it.

If Morgrim flips town, his claim is meaningless (and... the game is over anyway?  the math is still unclear to me).  If Morgrim flips Mafia, the question is whether he is accusing O because he doesn't want to accuse a Mafia partner (Dsell) or because O truly is Mafia and he's setting up the WIFOM.  From Morgrim's play so far, I would suspect the former rather than the latter.  I also think that O has enough stuff going for him that we have to trust him... and if he is Mafia, we're screwed.  Did I post that before?  Because I keep thinking it. :P

The explanations for mjb make sense.

It looks to me like Morgrim didn't even see my post claiming VT. We both claimed #6.

Also, how is the math unclear? It's 5 to 3. If we lynch town we're at 4. Then nightkill makes 3. Game over, mafia wins. If we lynch town, we must somehow prevent the nightkill if the town has any hope of winning.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1107 on: June 10, 2012, 10:47:33 pm »

Well, the points I rebutted that you do not believe I cannot change anything, can I? About the claim, well, I told the truth. What else could I do?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1108 on: June 10, 2012, 10:52:56 pm »

Morgrim wasn't hammered in my absence, so now I am 100% sure of my vote. Take your time hammering but i'm not changing.

Phone posting so can't say much
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1109 on: June 10, 2012, 10:54:54 pm »

Well, the points I rebutted that you do not believe I cannot change anything, can I? About the claim, well, I told the truth. What else could I do?
Err... ok.

Vote: Morgrim
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1110 on: June 10, 2012, 10:55:05 pm »

I'm not going to give an elaborate defense here, but to adress what Volt, eHal, and some others have said about me having hedgy behavior. This game, I have been very confused. Day 1 things were very clear to me. I had a suspicion of Robz early that grew with everything he said. I trusted my gut about him in Mafia II and was right. Trusting my gut in Mafia III turned out to really do me in day 1. Day 2 I was encouraged because we had something to go on: Jo looked really guilty, and it turns out he was. Killing the Serial Killer was great but it unfortunately got us no real information since he was essentially on "his own team." Day 3 we don't have much new information. Day 2 was short and dominated by discussion of jo. I think the mafia have done a good job in this game at misdirecting us. I for one am quite confused today and I'm actually unsure how others seem much more confident. I mean yes I see the case against Morgrim but I don't think it's strong enough that we can confidently hammer him and risk losing right there.

I think everyone should be "hedgy" today in the sense that the townies simply don't have a lot of information here (unless there are other roles that haven't revealed their info yet). I know this makes me look suspicious but we really need to not hurry here. We have to make the right choice. Morgrim might be the right choice but I think we should post more, get more reactions to be sure.

In terms of the yuma post, I just put it there because I was pointing out that yuma has voted for Morgrim in the past. It could have been an early attempt to get a bandwagon rolling. Or it might not have been. But Morgrim, Eevee, and O are the only people alive (I believe) who've had more than a single vote on them, and in Morgrim's case, O cast the first vote (random I think) but yuma cast the third. It looks a little suspicious in hindsight, but really I'm at the stage where a LOT looks suspicious to me. Morgrim also voted for O way back when and O also voted for Eevee.

The thing is, most of that hedgy behaviour I pointed out occurred on day 1.  Yeah, you went hard after Robz, but you seemed to be dabbling on all the other bandwagons.  It just felt off to me when I read through those old posts.  I also think the case against Morgrim is stronger than the case against Robz (which I grant was decent).

I still don't know what you mean with the yuma post.  Do you think having votes on you is suspicious, or not?  Why is it suspicious that yuma cast a vote on Morgrim?  As I remember the situation at that point, it was pretty reasonable to vote for Morgrim because he was acting somewhat crazy.  I don't know what you're getting at by mentioning the other votes (Morgrim for O, O for Eevee).


Also, how is the math unclear? It's 5 to 3. If we lynch town we're at 4. Then nightkill makes 3. Game over, mafia wins. If we lynch town, we must somehow prevent the nightkill if the town has any hope of winning.

Right.  Right.  The math makes sense.  It's been a long day...  :-\
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1111 on: June 10, 2012, 10:57:47 pm »

Morgrim these are the reasons:
1) You voted for Galzria "Knowing he's town." They will talk about this one true hedge to rule them all for generations to come. I will take into consideration that the deadline was coming and you may have panicked.
2) You lurked for the entirety of Day 2.  You have an explanation for that and your confusion as to what happens adds weight to the reason.  I will take that into account.
3) You accuse O with no explanation.
4) Your other voting habits haven't been the best.  I noticed you voted for O and J yesterday.  Your reasons for O were weak and you didn't add to the J conversation.
5) Without giving much additional explanation as to why people should vote for J, you tried scaring someone into the J vote by writing "Thirty Minutes."  It turns out it was 12 hours left, an honest mistake to make.
6) You were not killed on Night 2, when you could have very much been exonerated for being a role.  And mafia are trying to kill roles.  The only reason they know a role wouldn't pop up is if you're a Mafia Goon or a Mafia Godfather or if a Mafia Rolecop had previously checked you, which I very much doubt Night 1.
7ish) Notice how many times I've had to say "maybe it's a mistake" or "maybe you have an explanation"  THose are adding up.



I agree with eHalcyon that DSell's quote of yuma just seems really weird.  Some explanation would be very appreciated.

@eHalcyon: If Morgrim flipping mafia creates some terrible WIFOM, that's exactly what Mafia wants.  Mafia could all just claim Vanilla... but then we'd know they're the vanilla ones.  The bigger issue is protecting our protection roles. 

PEdit: @eHalcyon: I thought about asking it, but I thought that why not Morgrim got to the point of the question better.  I think mjb was just too town.  Maybe they hoped his pleas would get lost.  Maybe they wanted put up the front of hiding their tracks.  I have to say I don't like the idea of the Galz wagon and will have to go back and read it.

With Eevee's vote Morgrim is at L-1, be careful all.

Hmm... I'm going to unvote to let Morgrim answer, I really doubt he'll say anything to change my mind but I want to see what he has to say.  But I don't want someone like Eevee accidentally hammering prematurely (which is suspicious by the way)

Unvote
Thank you for the list, Axxle.
Will rebut soon, gotta go now...
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1112 on: June 10, 2012, 11:01:36 pm »

Well, the points I rebutted that you do not believe I cannot change anything, can I? About the claim, well, I told the truth. What else could I do?
Err... ok.

Vote: Morgrim
Thank you for the list, Axxle.
Will rebut soon, gotta go now...
Oh, I thought your former was your rebuttal.

Unvote
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1113 on: June 10, 2012, 11:42:24 pm »

Morgrim these are the reasons:
1) You voted for Galzria "Knowing he's town." They will talk about this one true hedge to rule them all for generations to come. I will take into consideration that the deadline was coming and you may have panicked.
2) You lurked for the entirety of Day 2.  You have an explanation for that and your confusion as to what happens adds weight to the reason.  I will take that into account.
3) You accuse O with no explanation.
4) Your other voting habits haven't been the best.  I noticed you voted for O and J yesterday.  Your reasons for O were weak and you didn't add to the J conversation.
5) Without giving much additional explanation as to why people should vote for J, you tried scaring someone into the J vote by writing "Thirty Minutes."  It turns out it was 12 hours left, an honest mistake to make.
6) You were not killed on Night 2, when you could have very much been exonerated for being a role.  And mafia are trying to kill roles.  The only reason they know a role wouldn't pop up is if you're a Mafia Goon or a Mafia Godfather or if a Mafia Rolecop had previously checked you, which I very much doubt Night 1.
7ish) Notice how many times I've had to say "maybe it's a mistake" or "maybe you have an explanation"  THose are adding up.



I agree with eHalcyon that DSell's quote of yuma just seems really weird.  Some explanation would be very appreciated.

@eHalcyon: If Morgrim flipping mafia creates some terrible WIFOM, that's exactly what Mafia wants.  Mafia could all just claim Vanilla... but then we'd know they're the vanilla ones.  The bigger issue is protecting our protection roles. 

PEdit: @eHalcyon: I thought about asking it, but I thought that why not Morgrim got to the point of the question better.  I think mjb was just too town.  Maybe they hoped his pleas would get lost.  Maybe they wanted put up the front of hiding their tracks.  I have to say I don't like the idea of the Galz wagon and will have to go back and read it.

With Eevee's vote Morgrim is at L-1, be careful all.

Hmm... I'm going to unvote to let Morgrim answer, I really doubt he'll say anything to change my mind but I want to see what he has to say.  But I don't want someone like Eevee accidentally hammering prematurely (which is suspicious by the way)

Unvote
1) You are right, it was a panic-striken moment.
2) I was not on the forum at all for day two. I explained the times in the above post.
3) I assumed that if there are 6 vanilla townies (mosr likely scenario) and because I am one, O has to be lying.
4) I voted for O because he insiste on voting randomly even though we had proven why it was harmful to the town. I voted for J for the same reason as everybody else. It looked like he was going to get lynched, and I wanted my say in things.
5) I apologize for my mistake. I was not meaning to scare anyone, it was just such a tense moment, the deadline aas so close.
6) I was not killed on night 2 because I am not a role. And hey, maybe there is a doctor here.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1114 on: June 10, 2012, 11:59:13 pm »

6) I was not killed on night 2 because I am not a role. And hey, maybe there is a doctor here.

Nobody knew you weren't a role (besides you) until day 3. And what do you mean about a doctor? Doesn't look like anybody's been saved so far.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1115 on: June 11, 2012, 12:09:28 am »

6) I was not killed on night 2 because I am not a role. And hey, maybe there is a doctor here.

Nobody knew you weren't a role (besides you) until day 3. And what do you mean about a doctor? Doesn't look like anybody's been saved so far.
True. Did I look like a role? Maybe the Mafia did not kill me because they thought I was harmless. Only the mafia know why they did not kill me.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1116 on: June 11, 2012, 12:20:22 am »

3) I assumed that if there are 6 vanilla townies (mosr likely scenario) and because I am one, O has to be lying.

Why do you assume 6?

13 total
3 Mafia
1 Serial Killer
4 dead VT

This leaves 5 townies alive.  Axxle has claimed town rolecop and there haven't been any serious suggestions that he's lying.  That leaves 4.  I expect there is at least one protective role, maybe 2.  Let's assume the latter.  That leaves 2 spots for VT -- plenty of room for both you and O.  O claimed "VT #5" and you claimed "VT #6".  So why do you think O is lying?

If there is only one protective role, then there's even room for a VT #7.  And if Insomniac is fully messing with the town and there is no other town power role, then we could have a VT #8.

And note that this is ignoring the fact that Dsell also claimed VT #6 before you.  Why did you accuse O but not Dsell?  Dsell suggests that you just missed his claim, which I guess makes sense.  Still, your math is really off because even assuming 6 VT, there's no reason for you to think O is lying.  Unless you've picked up on other tells?
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1117 on: June 11, 2012, 12:27:25 am »

I'll answer that: 7 VT means bastard mod who wants mafia to win, assuming one of our roles is axxle's rolecop
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1118 on: June 11, 2012, 12:44:40 am »

I'll answer that: 7 VT means bastard mod who wants mafia to win, assuming one of our roles is axxle's rolecop

So you think we have 2 protective roles?  Not doing such a good job so far...  :-\

Or maybe we have an exotic protective role?  Something like, instead of fully protecting a target, it would deflect the kill to an unfortunate VT.  Or maybe the power roles, including Axxle, have a built-in deflection... do such variants exist?  It would help explain why Axxle wasn't targeted.  The alternate explanations I can think of:

1. Axxle is mafia.  Don't even want to consider this one.  He's done enough to warrant trust.  Plus, no counterclaim.  And even if he is Mafia and we lynch him, it leaves us completely lost after that.

2. The mafia thought they could cast suspicion onto Axxle and get him lynched.  Nobody has really tried.  Several of us have mentioned the possibility (Dsell and Morgrim, I think, and I have as well, and probably some others) but nobody has pushed it.

3. The mafia were worried about protective roles and preferred to go after a safer NK.  Knowing who Axxle was planning to investigate might help with that (e.g. if Axxle happened to target a Mafia power role, that would have been a blow for them and they might have gone after Axxle immediately).

4. The mafia legitimately wanted to take michaeljb out of the picture, for one reason or another.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1119 on: June 11, 2012, 01:27:57 am »

It's possible actually, only 2 power roles. Maybe Voltgloss didn't really how weak of town role Rolecop is, especially given his.... interesting... decision of making the SK investigate vanilla (unless Axxle lies, but if Axxle lies we're screwed anyways and who the hell are our powerroles).

And there's plenty of design space for town-plus roles, like innocent child, etc.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1120 on: June 11, 2012, 06:28:15 am »

It's possible actually, only 2 power roles. Maybe Voltgloss didn't really how weak of town role Rolecop is, especially given his.... interesting... decision of making the SK investigate vanilla (unless Axxle lies, but if Axxle lies we're screwed anyways and who the hell are our powerroles).

You mean Insomniac.  :)

For balance purposes, I would expect that a 13-player town with 3 mafia and 1 serial killer would either have (i) 4 middling town power roles, (ii) 1 strong town power role and 2 middling town power roles, or (iii) 2 strong town power roles.  (By "strong town power role" I mean something like full-fledged Cop or Vigilante.)

So far, we have 4 dead VT and 1 middling town power role (Role Cop, assuming Axxle is telling the truth).  And we have 3 more claimed VTs (O, Dsell, Morgrim).  If they were all telling the truth, then the town would consist of 3 mafia, 1 SK, 7 VTs, 1 Town Role Cop, and 1 other town power role.  That seems unbalanced in favor of the mafia, as Role Cop is a middling town power role - especially when there are so many VTs running around.  I think we have to operate under the assumption that Insomniac made a balanced town setup (if not, we're screwed anyway).  So, assuming a balanced setup, one of the 3 VT claims so far is most likely Mafia.  Hence, the suspicion of Morgrim.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1121 on: June 11, 2012, 09:37:07 am »

Well I am back. My feelings about Morgrim haven't changed. In fact I am now more suspicious of him due to the weird O vote after I left the forum. But now that a size-able part of the town has started voting for him--including O who suggested to me that it was a bad idea to vote from him before--I will recast my vote

vote: Morgrim7

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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #1122 on: June 11, 2012, 09:47:49 am »

Along with the above posts I am becoming more and more wary of Morgrim7 behavior. I think I will join C. Frisk--whose vote I agree with--and O--whose vote I don't--in voting for Morgrim7.

Status:
Suspicious: Galzria, Morgrim7
Not suspicious: none
Vote: Morgrim7

I'm just gonna throw this quote out there and see where it leads us...

I don't see the point of you quoting this quote...

I am glad I am not the only one who isn't understanding the purpose of this. And from what I can tell Dsell never addressed eHaylcon or me about why he posted it. Frankly, it seems like he was trying to distract the town from the building Morgrim suspicion. But either way, here is an explanation? of it. Again I am not sure what you are looking for.

I voted Morgrim early on because of his 1. weird comments throughout 2. he left off his cutsey style of play--the flavor journal posts--the moment he became suspicious. It was like he realized that disguise wasn't working so he abandoned it for another reason 3. his vote of def after CFrisk put some pressure on him.  This was the point that I voted for him. At the time CFrisk had also voted for him, because of the same reason and O had randomly generated him. I agreed with Frisk's assessment but not with O's voting reason. Hence my disclaimer. Is there something more you want to know? His posts have continued to be suspicious since then.

I left my Morgrim vote later that day because everyone else had left it and I was leaving town. I then voted for who I thought was second most likely to be mafia so that my vote could have some purpose. That was for J.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1123 on: June 11, 2012, 10:50:48 am »

Insomniac, could we have a vote count please?  Thanks.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1124 on: June 11, 2012, 11:10:03 am »

Vote Count 3-1

Morgrim7 (4) - O, eHalcyon, Eevee, yuma
O (1) - Morgrim7

Not Voting (3) - DSell, Voltgloss, Axxle

With 8 Alive it takes 5 to lynch.

The deadline is June 16 11:59pm PDT
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1125 on: June 11, 2012, 11:17:30 am »

Do not worry, I won't kill myself. ;)
Well, because I am most likely about to die, I suppose I will make a final request. No, it is not lynch O. Be careful. You guys have only one more try now. Make it count!!!
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1126 on: June 11, 2012, 11:25:01 am »

So now Morgrim has responded to the points of suspicion raised against him.  I appreciate those responses - but they do not shake my conclusion that, more likely than not, he's mafia playing the crazy card. 

For the VT-count/balancing reasons put forth by myself and others, I have to assume one of O, Dsell, and Morgrim are mafia.  I don't think it's O, mainly because of the 50/50 offer during Twilight 1.  I am suspicious of Dsell for the reasons I gave previously; but am suspicious of Morgrim most of all.  Which means it's time to act on that.

VOTE: MORGRIM

 
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1127 on: June 11, 2012, 11:32:17 am »

Everybody's getting shaky in the town jumping at any sight of could be mafia. Morgrim appears to be back after he was missing on day 2, O calls out he's scum! The beggars start getting worked into a frenzy. O is quickly joined by eHalcyon, Eevee, yuma and Voltgloss. Together they keep his twigs from him until he becomes too famished and is lynched. Checking his scruffy pants you find his shelter card, the card clearly places him as a member of the shelter to which you are currently residing.

Morgrim 7 the vanilla townie is dead.

Night 3 begins

Day 4 begins in 48 hours, around June 13 at 8:00am PDT
« Last Edit: June 11, 2012, 11:48:11 am by Insomniac »
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1128 on: June 13, 2012, 10:31:02 am »

You are awoken by the sound of a loud scream, as you slowly come to your senses you realize its the head beggar calling a meeting. You quickly rush to the center where the meetings are held. You scan the crowd quickly as you do you make out O, Axxle, Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss, eHalcyon and yuma. Huh, everyone made it through the night

No one died last night

Day 4 has begun

Deadline June 20, 2012, 11:59 PDT

Vote Count 4-0

Not voting (7) - O, Axxle, Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss, eHalcyon, yuma
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1129 on: June 13, 2012, 12:02:16 pm »

The fact that we are still alive, Hooray!, seems to imply that we have at least one power role, I am hoping we have another.

I need to go back over yesterday to see exactly what happened.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1130 on: June 13, 2012, 01:05:12 pm »

We are in lylo now, aren't we?  Barring more night luck.

It is possible the mafia opted not to target anyone, but this is unlikely.  At the very least, we can probably conclude that they have no special "1-shot extra kill" power.

We may have a doctor.  If so, we can confirm a townie, but that would put the doctor at risk.  We may have a jailkeeper.  If so, it doesn't really help us much because we won't be able to tell if the target was to be the killer or the victim.  We may have both, and that would confuse things further.

At this point, I am putting full trust in Axxle.  Without him as a town-aligned rolecop, I don't think we have a chance.  Axxle investigated *someone* last night.  How best to use that information?

I think he should stay silent for now.  let people say what they want to say, and see if it changes after he reveals what he knows.  It may result in Mafia bussing Mafia.  It may result in catching out false role claims.  It may result in nothing (if he got another "no role" result, or was jailed or something) but it could still be useful.  The Mafia knows things we don't.  It will be useful if someone on the town side knows things they don't.

Another question is... should roles claim at this point?  Probably not doctor unless absolutely necessary, but jailkeeper?
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1131 on: June 13, 2012, 01:15:42 pm »

I'm looking back over the "number of VTs" analysis presented throughout Day 3, and it still looks solid to me.  That means our mistake was in picking the Mafia out of the claimed VTs.  We had O, Dsell, and Morgrim.  We picked Morgrim, but that was wrong.  That leaves O and Dsell.  I still don't think it's O for all of the reasons given to date.  That leaves Dsell.

If Axxle investigated Dsell and got a result different from VT, should he (Axxle) reveal that information?  Dsell has already claimed VT.  If Axxle investigated him and got a different result, that means Dsell was lying to us and is probably a Mafia power role. 
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1132 on: June 13, 2012, 01:19:19 pm »

Huh, I staunchly defended not hastily lynching town. I must be mafia!

There was DEFINITELY mafia on that Morgrim wagon. How could there not be? By all accounts, it looked like the mafia were going to win after lynching town. I think we got really lucky and someone deserves a medal.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1133 on: June 13, 2012, 01:25:12 pm »

I'm looking back over the "number of VTs" analysis presented throughout Day 3, and it still looks solid to me.  That means our mistake was in picking the Mafia out of the claimed VTs.  We had O, Dsell, and Morgrim.  We picked Morgrim, but that was wrong.  That leaves O and Dsell.  I still don't think it's O for all of the reasons given to date.  That leaves Dsell.

If Axxle investigated Dsell and got a result different from VT, should he (Axxle) reveal that information?  Dsell has already claimed VT.  If Axxle investigated him and got a different result, that means Dsell was lying to us and is probably a Mafia power role.

Are you implying that the rolecop read on power roles won't give alignment?  I was assuming it would.

If Dsell is a town power (and I don't think he is), it's possible that he would claim VT to ensure the real Mafia wouldn't go after him...

I do have a theory.  I have guesses as to what power role(s) we have and who they are.  I'm just not sure of the best way to use it... if I post it and accidentally support Mafia, they can roll with it.  If I am correct then that exposes town assets.  It's probably best for me personally to see how people act before I say anything, but it might not be best for the town. 

Probably the most effective thing would be to work it out through Axxle...?
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1134 on: June 13, 2012, 01:26:36 pm »

For the record, I am largely suspicious of Eevee, yuma, and Voltgloss. They were all on that bandwagon, Eevee got Robz killed to squish that suspicion, yuma was on the Morgrim bandwagon on day 1 and day 3, and Volt has been generally very scummy, especially day 3. I think the fact that he hammered Morgrim is not insignificant.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1135 on: June 13, 2012, 01:26:57 pm »

Huh, I staunchly defended not hastily lynching town. I must be mafia!

There was DEFINITELY mafia on that Morgrim wagon. How could there not be?

Of course there was mafia on the Morgrim wagon.  The Morgrim wagon consisted of everyone in the town except you (Dsell) and Morgrim himself.  (Axxle wasn't in the final votecount but it certainly appeared he would have been, based on previous votes;  the only reason he wasn't was because I didn't see any reason to wait more than I'd already waited, given Morgrim's response.)

The question is, were ALL of the Mafia on the Morgrim wagon?  Or did one of them stay off when it was clear his vote wouldn't be needed, to try to build his credibility for the following day (if it came)?

It's a hard question to answer.  Which is why my suspicion of you isn't really dependent on it.  I'm suspicious of you for the same reasons I was suspicious of Morgrim:  based on the town/mafia power balance, I cannot believe that all three of you, O, and Morgrim are VTs. 

Pre-post edit:  have not read eHal's and Dsell's latest posts yet.  Will do so now.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1136 on: June 13, 2012, 01:31:55 pm »

Huh, I staunchly defended not hastily lynching town. I must be mafia!

There was DEFINITELY mafia on that Morgrim wagon. How could there not be? By all accounts, it looked like the mafia were going to win after lynching town. I think we got really lucky and someone deserves a medal.

I recognize this and I agree, but I do not think it clears you.  I stand by the Morgrim vote.  He is just a really, really odd player and I didn't realize just how odd he was.  I mean, O was kind of crazy on day 1 but that cleaned up after a while.

There has been Morgrim suspicion running since day 1, and his hammer on Galz was terrible.  Yes, there's a good chance that Mafia pushed the wagon yesterday, but I really doubt all the Mafia were part of it.  As Mafia, you could offer mild protest against lynching Morgrim and then use that as defense later.


Dsell, why are you suspicious of Eevee, yuma and Voltgloss but not me?  I partially agree with you, but I still find you suspicious.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1137 on: June 13, 2012, 01:35:02 pm »

I'm suspicious of you for the same reasons I was suspicious of Morgrim:  based on the town/mafia power balance, I cannot believe that all three of you, O, and Morgrim are VTs. 

We have an absolute minimum of 6 vanilla townies and probably a 7th. I don't know why you are putting so much stock in your assumptions when we are in a closed system. It does look like there is at least one protective role in addition to Axxle's role (unless the mafia pulled the impossibly stupid move of performing no night kill), so that's awesome. But Voltgloss, what makes you think that your assumption of the composition of the town is enough to lynch someone when we are at lylo? That seems gravely arrogant.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1138 on: June 13, 2012, 01:38:39 pm »

Huh, I staunchly defended not hastily lynching town. I must be mafia!

There was DEFINITELY mafia on that Morgrim wagon. How could there not be? By all accounts, it looked like the mafia were going to win after lynching town. I think we got really lucky and someone deserves a medal.

I recognize this and I agree, but I do not think it clears you.  I stand by the Morgrim vote.  He is just a really, really odd player and I didn't realize just how odd he was.  I mean, O was kind of crazy on day 1 but that cleaned up after a while.

There has been Morgrim suspicion running since day 1, and his hammer on Galz was terrible.  Yes, there's a good chance that Mafia pushed the wagon yesterday, but I really doubt all the Mafia were part of it.  As Mafia, you could offer mild protest against lynching Morgrim and then use that as defense later.


Dsell, why are you suspicious of Eevee, yuma and Voltgloss but not me?  I partially agree with you, but I still find you suspicious.

I actually was not totally against the morgrim wagon, he looked suspicious to me too. What I was strongly against was taking day 3 SO FAST. We had lots of time and we went for a hasty lynch, and it turned out to be against town.

And I am less suspicious of you because throughout the whole process I have gotten more of a town read on you. Let me be clear, I'm suspicious of everyone...but those three seem more likely mafia to me.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1139 on: June 13, 2012, 01:41:15 pm »

Are you implying that the rolecop read on power roles won't give alignment?  I was assuming it would.

I assume it doesn't, or Axxle would have told us his alignment reads before.  Assuming he is indeed what he says he is. 

But Voltgloss, what makes you think that your assumption of the composition of the town is enough to lynch someone when we are at lylo? That seems gravely arrogant.

When did I say the bolded part?  I said I suspect you based on assumptions about town composition (assumptions held by others as well, not just me), and queried whether Axxle could shed some light on the question.  Please don't put words in my mouth.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1140 on: June 13, 2012, 01:45:07 pm »

based on the town/mafia power balance, I cannot believe that all three of you, O, and Morgrim are VTs. 

If you cannot believe us, you must think one of us is lying. And if that person's lying, then they must be mafia. I assume you want to lynch mafia?

I'm actually highly doubtful of that at this point.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1141 on: June 13, 2012, 01:45:18 pm »

I have some information that may help.  I'll wait a bit as people suggest though.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1142 on: June 13, 2012, 01:47:06 pm »

Axxle, if you found a role that is not doctor/jailkeeper/protector role, you've found mafia. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that if you found a vanilla that is not Me or O, you've found mafia.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1143 on: June 13, 2012, 01:57:36 pm »

Are you implying that the rolecop read on power roles won't give alignment?  I was assuming it would.

I assume it doesn't, or Axxle would have told us his alignment reads before.  Assuming he is indeed what he says he is. 

Well first read was a hidden SK. Second read was vanilla. I thought vanillas would be have no revealed alignment but others would.

I think the town has doctor and jailkeeper. I picked up on tells. The risk is that it could be clever Mafia, but I think not.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1144 on: June 13, 2012, 02:06:06 pm »

They wouldn't say the alignments, but seriously, a Mafia Doctor belongs in Bastard Mafia II.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1145 on: June 13, 2012, 02:21:28 pm »

If my above assumptions are correct (and he didn't investigate Me or O), Axxle can guarantee that we lynch mafia today. If he got lucky enough, he could actually determine who all 3 mafia are. So I'm not sure that he actually needs to reveal what he found out about who. If he can figure out who a mafioso is from his investigation, it might be better if he just named that person. (If he found the town doctor/jailkeeper for example...he doesn't need to out this person.)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1146 on: June 13, 2012, 02:25:12 pm »

I'm not quite sure about claiming right now- we do have roleblockers, and I'm already the closest thing we have to a confirmed town. What do others think?

You mean have everyone just state their role immediately? I was thinking about this too but it seems like it might be something that can wait for later in the week? But I'm actually fine with it.

If this starts happening, how should a Town Doctor respond?  Do we want to tell the Mafia exactly who they should target during the night?

Also, we don't actually know we have any Roleblockers available in this closed setup (at least based on the information made public so far).

This could be an unsubtle hint/suggestion that Volt is the doctor. I don't have a lot of analysis on it since I'm waiting for Axxle, but...yeah. Take this post as you will.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1147 on: June 13, 2012, 02:29:40 pm »

Dsell, that was the doctor tell I picked up. I think it's earnest because it doesn't consider jailkeeper. Won't mention jailkeeper tell yet unless Axxle suggests it.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1148 on: June 13, 2012, 03:12:35 pm »

I'm not quite sure about claiming right now- we do have roleblockers, and I'm already the closest thing we have to a confirmed town. What do others think?

You mean have everyone just state their role immediately? I was thinking about this too but it seems like it might be something that can wait for later in the week? But I'm actually fine with it.

If this starts happening, how should a Town Doctor respond?  Do we want to tell the Mafia exactly who they should target during the night?

Also, we don't actually know we have any Roleblockers available in this closed setup (at least based on the information made public so far).

This could be an unsubtle hint/suggestion that Volt is the doctor. I don't have a lot of analysis on it since I'm waiting for Axxle, but...yeah. Take this post as you will.

Why would you say this?  I'm having trouble seeing the motivation.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1149 on: June 13, 2012, 03:18:20 pm »

Erm... my read is that the doctor/jailkeeper is whoever the hell Axxle says he is, if AXXLE got that return.


If Axxle is lying:

1) Axxle randomly claims cop as mafia D2 and picks out the SK, nobody counterclaims
2) In MYLO Axxle picks out Morgrim as Vanilla, not some mafia role, in order to get us to lynch him
3) Town is pretty much screwed anyways

So yea, Axxle is confirmed town in my eyes.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1150 on: June 13, 2012, 03:26:23 pm »

I'll add that I didn't want to bring up the "Voltgloss is doctor" tell in case it's true and the mafia missed it... but whatever.


I've had a new thought, but it's unconventional and not even something we can safely act on because it could really go either way.  Writing it up now.  In the meantime, thoughts on whether I should share it now, or wait?
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1151 on: June 13, 2012, 03:51:47 pm »

I've got my thing written.  I don't know if I should post it.  On the one hand it may expose a possibility we haven't yet considered.  On the other hand, it might just provide fodder for the mafia to lay suspicion on someone we wouldn't otherwise suspect.

You are awoken by the sound of a loud scream, as you slowly come to your senses you realize its the head beggar calling a meeting. You quickly rush to the center where the meetings are held. You scan the crowd quickly as you do you make out O, Axxle, Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss, eHalcyon and yuma. Huh, everyone made it through the night

Insomniac, who screamed?  What was the meeting about?
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1152 on: June 13, 2012, 03:52:29 pm »

(The second part was just for fun.  It has nothing to do with my idea.  :P)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1153 on: June 13, 2012, 04:08:19 pm »

AXXLE:

If you trust me, consider the following:

There are 4 townies

Ehalycon and Dsell both claim they suspect Voltgloss is doctor

IFF you believe me, then it stands to reason that either 2 townies (one of which is doctor) is fingering Volt as doctor, or a mafia is fingering volt as doctor.

Obviously this is moot if you investigated volt or something but this provides a scummy outlook for at least one of Dsell/Halycon, and probably volt.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1154 on: June 13, 2012, 04:30:03 pm »

I'm waiting to see Dsell's response to Axxle's question before weighing in further.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1155 on: June 13, 2012, 04:31:01 pm »

AXXLE:

If you trust me, consider the following:

There are 4 townies

Ehalycon and Dsell both claim they suspect Voltgloss is doctor

IFF you believe me, then it stands to reason that either 2 townies (one of which is doctor) is fingering Volt as doctor, or a mafia is fingering volt as doctor.

Obviously this is moot if you investigated volt or something but this provides a scummy outlook for at least one of Dsell/Halycon, and probably volt.

Your reasoning is sound.  Assuming you are town, it is impossible for all three of me, Dsell and Volt to be town.  But then, we must also assume that yuma and Eevee are guaranteed Mafia.  Unless there are two Mafia within this trio?  I see it as possible that Mafia Volt would leave an obvious doctor tell hoping that a townie would call it so that he could "confirm".  When nobody actually speaks out on it, Mafia Dsell can point it out and hope someone agrees (which I did). 

Axxle's question was astute -- why did Dsell point it out?  In the best case (from town perspective), you are outing your doctor who is probably best left hidden.  Worse, if Volt is really Mafia, it allows others to say "yes I agree" and it lets a Mafia claim with far less risk.



But I have to say this now -- can we still trust you?  The idea I had puts you in the Mafia.  :(
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1156 on: June 13, 2012, 04:32:28 pm »

I've got my thing written.  I don't know if I should post it.  On the one hand it may expose a possibility we haven't yet considered.  On the other hand, it might just provide fodder for the mafia to lay suspicion on someone we wouldn't otherwise suspect.

You are awoken by the sound of a loud scream, as you slowly come to your senses you realize its the head beggar calling a meeting. You quickly rush to the center where the meetings are held. You scan the crowd quickly as you do you make out O, Axxle, Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss, eHalcyon and yuma. Huh, everyone made it through the night

Insomniac, who screamed?  What was the meeting about?

The lead beggar screamed demanding everyone attend his meeting, you missed what the meeting was about, too busy making a head count on who was alive
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1157 on: June 13, 2012, 04:51:55 pm »

AXXLE:

If you trust me, consider the following:

There are 4 townies

Ehalycon and Dsell both claim they suspect Voltgloss is doctor

IFF you believe me, then it stands to reason that either 2 townies (one of which is doctor) is fingering Volt as doctor, or a mafia is fingering volt as doctor.

Obviously this is moot if you investigated volt or something but this provides a scummy outlook for at least one of Dsell/Halycon, and probably volt.

Your reasoning is sound.  Assuming you are town, it is impossible for all three of me, Dsell and Volt to be town.  But then, we must also assume that yuma and Eevee are guaranteed Mafia.  Unless there are two Mafia within this trio?  I see it as possible that Mafia Volt would leave an obvious doctor tell hoping that a townie would call it so that he could "confirm".  When nobody actually speaks out on it, Mafia Dsell can point it out and hope someone agrees (which I did). 

Axxle's question was astute -- why did Dsell point it out?  In the best case (from town perspective), you are outing your doctor who is probably best left hidden.  Worse, if Volt is really Mafia, it allows others to say "yes I agree" and it lets a Mafia claim with far less risk.



But I have to say this now -- can we still trust you?  The idea I had puts you in the Mafia.  :(

In all honestly I don't care altogether too much about your trust, since (Given my trust in myself + axxle) there's a 60% chance that you're mafia ignoring tells.

I really really really really just want to convince Axxle that he should trust me, since I believe that if me and Axxle are teammates that our odds of getting a correct lynch skyrocket.

Once again, I'm really not even considering Axxle as mafia because we've lost then anyways.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1158 on: June 13, 2012, 04:59:07 pm »

In all honestly I don't care altogether too much about your trust, since (Given my trust in myself + axxle) there's a 60% chance that you're mafia ignoring tells.

I really really really really just want to convince Axxle that he should trust me, since I believe that if me and Axxle are teammates that our odds of getting a correct lynch skyrocket.

Once again, I'm really not even considering Axxle as mafia because we've lost then anyways.

I agree, and I'm in about the same position against you.  I'm just far less confident about my ability to get a correct lynch, given my track record... then again, you should be too since you were on both the bad wagons I was on, and in both cases we were the first two votes.  Are you really so confident about your own judgement at this point?

As far as tells go -- what are your thoughts on everyone?  Eevee and yuma continue to avoid discussion...

So should I post my case against you?  And more importantly -- Axxle, do you think I should post it?
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1159 on: June 13, 2012, 05:02:33 pm »

Voltgloss' "hint," if that's what it was, was extremely unsubtle. If you are town and you picked up on it, don't insult our mafia by thinking they didn't. I don't know who Axxle investigated but I put that quote here because I am actually really suspicious of that claim. I don't see a need for a real doctor to drop hints like that and I've seen a lot more scumminess out of him recently than helpfulness. Seriously, was Voltgloss in so much hot water from me, O, and Morgrim claiming VT that he felt that he needed to reveal his role without revealing? I am wary of Voltgloss.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1160 on: June 13, 2012, 05:05:12 pm »

In all honestly I don't care altogether too much about your trust, since (Given my trust in myself + axxle) there's a 60% chance that you're mafia ignoring tells.

I really really really really just want to convince Axxle that he should trust me, since I believe that if me and Axxle are teammates that our odds of getting a correct lynch skyrocket.

Once again, I'm really not even considering Axxle as mafia because we've lost then anyways.

I agree, and I'm in about the same position against you.  I'm just far less confident about my ability to get a correct lynch, given my track record... then again, you should be too since you were on both the bad wagons I was on, and in both cases we were the first two votes.  Are you really so confident about your own judgement at this point?

As far as tells go -- what are your thoughts on everyone?  Eevee and yuma continue to avoid discussion...

So should I post my case against you?  And more importantly -- Axxle, do you think I should post it?

I feel OK about my morgrim vote. I was going to try and grab Dsell, whose townie claim right after mine looked scummy to me, but then morgrim just made this completely batshit crazy post in which he 1) Claimed VT #6 AND 2) Said I was Mafia because if I was VT that would mean there were 6 VT. It just didn't make any sense and that's why I voted for him.

Galzria also was acting a little nutty the first round, but mostly I hammered him because for some reason I had faith in Jo and D1 is mostly RVS anyways... so why not vote for Galzria?

All in all no, I'm not confident.

Voltgloss's hammer looks like its a mafia hammer with knowledge that he has a high chance of victory. This is why I don't trust you and Dsell: Volt seems so clearly to be the likeliest scum and both of you claim he's doctor... it just makes no sense.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1161 on: June 13, 2012, 05:05:23 pm »

Erm... my read is that the doctor/jailkeeper is whoever the hell Axxle says he is, if AXXLE got that return.

I completely agree with this, and if Voltgloss turned up doctor according to Axxle, I would believe it. But who knows whether Axxle found the doctor? Axxle does. But if he found the doctor, he can say with good confidence who the mafia is IF he trusts our claims, O.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1162 on: June 13, 2012, 05:08:24 pm »

Ehalycon and Dsell both claim they suspect Voltgloss is doctor

This is not correct. I believe he meant to drop that hint but I hope that Axxle can confirm. If he can't, I actually think Voltgloss is mafia >50%.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1163 on: June 13, 2012, 05:13:37 pm »

Voltgloss' "hint," if that's what it was, was extremely unsubtle. If you are town and you picked up on it, don't insult our mafia by thinking they didn't. I don't know who Axxle investigated but I put that quote here because I am actually really suspicious of that claim. I don't see a need for a real doctor to drop hints like that and I've seen a lot more scumminess out of him recently than helpfulness. Seriously, was Voltgloss in so much hot water from me, O, and Morgrim claiming VT that he felt that he needed to reveal his role without revealing? I am wary of Voltgloss.

I thought he was trying to ask a legitimate question and not dropping any hint there.  I think it was an earnest slip-up.

Is it really an insult to the mafia?  Voltgloss didn't die last night.  Possibilities:

1. Voltgloss is mafia, pure and simple.
2. Voltgloss is doctor...
2a. Mafia did not notice the tell, targeted someone else who was saved.
2b. Mafia noticed but decided to risk going after Axxle, who was protected.
2c. Mafia targeted Volt but the goon was jailed.
3. Surprise bullet proof townies.

There could also be severe misreads of others, e.g. if Axxle is pulling the strings.  And like we've all been saying, if that's the case, the town has no chance.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1164 on: June 13, 2012, 05:15:42 pm »

I still claim VT and I also didn't pick up on this tell.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1165 on: June 13, 2012, 05:16:33 pm »

Ehalycon and Dsell both claim they suspect Voltgloss is doctor

This is not correct. I believe he meant to drop that hint but I hope that Axxle can confirm. If he can't, I actually think Voltgloss is mafia >50%.

I'm finding Eevee and yuma to be the most suspicious, especially because nobody else seems to be considering them at all, one way or the other.

Still waiting for Volt to say something about all this, though he's in a tough spot whether he is Mafia or Doctor or even a VT.  All faith to Axxle and whatever info he holds.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1166 on: June 13, 2012, 05:18:29 pm »

Ehalycon and Dsell both claim they suspect Voltgloss is doctor

This is not correct. I believe he meant to drop that hint but I hope that Axxle can confirm. If he can't, I actually think Voltgloss is mafia >50%.

I'm finding Eevee and yuma to be the most suspicious, especially because nobody else seems to be considering them at all, one way or the other.

Still waiting for Volt to say something about all this, though he's in a tough spot whether he is Mafia or Doctor or even a VT.  All faith to Axxle and whatever info he holds.

Of course I'm considering them!

All 3 (assuming there's 3) mafia are among (in my eyes):
Dsell
Ehalycon
Voltgloss
Eevee
Yuma

So either i'd be cocksure of a D-E-V trio or I'd have suspicions on the two of them.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1167 on: June 13, 2012, 05:20:30 pm »

Like I said before, my bet is on a V-E-Y mafia, but I realize that Volt is the trickiest of these because things get messy if he actually IS the doctor (actually it's not that tricky, it would be eHal instead).
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1168 on: June 13, 2012, 05:21:18 pm »

Oops, and by E I mean Eevee, not eHal.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1169 on: June 13, 2012, 05:24:51 pm »

Heh, I guess there's just less mention of them because they themselves are being quiet.

Here's my case against you.  I'm certainly afraid of giving the Mafia a flame to fan, but that's why I started the day by asking Axxle to stay quiet.  If there is any water to this theory, he's the only real chance of confirming it.  If he can't, there is no way we should pursue it as a town.

I'll add that I think Axxle should remain silent until Eevee and yuma both have a chance to give their stances.

-------------------------------------

Consider that we had a SK in our town.  Although SK is scum, it can also target Mafia -- and it probably should, in many cases.

With 3 Mafia and a hidden SK, and only a town rolecop rather than a full-fledged cop, the odds seem against the town.  Therefore I can't believe that the Mafia would have a roleblocker.  What other roles could the Mafia have?  They must have something, or else the rolecop is even less useful.  It can identify friendly town, but announcing it or even hinting at it ("I firmly believe he is innocent") just paints a target on that back for the night.

I think the best answer is Godfather.  Note that Godfather is not necessarily a Mafia member that investigates as town.  A variation on the wiki:

Quote
In games with multiple killers, instead of appearing innocent on Cop reports, the Godfather may be Bulletproof instead; they will appear guilty on Cop reports as normal, but cannot be killed at Night. (This has also been called Mafia Tough Guy.)

With SK in play, the game certainly had multiple killers.  A findable Godfather makes the rolecop a bit more useful as well.

If this is the flavour of Godfather in our town, who is likely to be the one?  I know this is going against the town read, but in this situation we need to consider all possibilities... I think the most likely bulletproof Mafia around would be O.

At the end of day 1, O put himself at risk to the claimed Vigilante (now known SK).  This is all well and good if he's a townie, but if he is the Godfather?  Applause for the brilliant Xanatos Gambit.

First of all, consider the reason for putting CFrisk as the other potential victim:

At risk of getting locked before an answer -- O, why did you nominate CF to be your roulette buddy?

Because I'm suspicious of him, he makes too many logical and clearheaded posts.

You'd think I'm joking, but that's my real reason.

At the time, I thought it was a decent townie reason.  But it's even better as a scum reason.  Now consider possible outcomes for Godfather O:

1. jo chooses not to kill -- mostly status quo, though jo's claim becomes more questionable and can be fuel for day 2 suspicion.

2. CFrisk dies -- a logical, clear-headed townie is down.

3. Vigilante jo tries to kill O and fails -- if jo reports the result, guage the town's reaction.  If they are against jo, push that feeling and remove the vigilante threat immediately.  If they are on jo's side, spin other explanations.  Jailkeeper, for instance.  If jailkeeper claims and refutes, a good NK target is now available and the town remains in confusion.  Or suggest that jo is lying about having tried at all.  That's still plausible.

4. SK jo tries to kill O and fails -- the SK is in a dilemma now.  He can report it, in which case see point 3.  Or he can keep this info to himself, but it does him little good and now jo is the one who has to worry about dealing with the town.

And in all cases, O gets vanilla townie points for putting himself at risk.  And not only that, he managed to point any available investigative role at jo, thus keeping himself safe from discovery.

These are pretty much decent-to-great outcomes for the Mafia no matter what happens.  Completely win-win.





Even with this idea, I don't suspect O much at all.  I still find Dsell more suspicious.  The problem is that the people I found most suspicious on past days were Galzria and Morgrim, both of whom were lynched and both of whom were town.  I think this is a major reason why I haven't been NK'd myself -- I'm too good at getting townies killed.  Maybe my town reads are off too.  Maybe my belief in O is another reason the Godfather has let me live.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1170 on: June 13, 2012, 05:33:40 pm »

1) Really, the best analogy there is the original WIFOM: Where both glasses are poisoned and I'm immune to the poison  ;D
2) I don't quite understand how I guarantee living in this situation: At the time of the so-called-gambit, I had every reason to assume Jo was Vig and not SK. So when Jo picks me and doesn't kill me, he as Vig would get me killed unless I did your desperation jailkeep scenario, which seems unlikely to prevail.

So yea, basically I think this possible case against me fails because it assumes I had knowledge that J was SK and not Vig, when I really had no way of confirming this D1.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1171 on: June 13, 2012, 05:39:31 pm »

I see there has been a lot of activity (which I've not yet read) and will try to weigh in substantively when I've had a chance to review.  RL work has lunged to the fore this afternoon/evening though, so it may not until be late tonight. 
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1172 on: June 13, 2012, 05:48:22 pm »

1) Really, the best analogy there is the original WIFOM: Where both glasses are poisoned and I'm immune to the poison  ;D
2) I don't quite understand how I guarantee living in this situation: At the time of the so-called-gambit, I had every reason to assume Jo was Vig and not SK. So when Jo picks me and doesn't kill me, he as Vig would get me killed unless I did your desperation jailkeep scenario, which seems unlikely to prevail.

So yea, basically I think this possible case against me fails because it assumes I had knowledge that J was SK and not Vig, when I really had no way of confirming this D1.

It's not really a "desperation jailkeep scenario" because you don't have to bring it up as a possibility.  If Vig jo said "I tried and failed", someone will inevitably bring that up as a possibility.  And it could force a jailkeeper to claim, which might not even be believed.

Even if you count that possibility as a negative outcome for mafia, it's still just one out of several, and the payoff on success is amazing.

For the record, I'm largely posting that theory so that I can get some cred if it turns out to be true.  ;)

I don't really want to focus on you, O, because I can see you going either way.  Similar for Dsell, though I've found him extremely suspicious.  The same for Voltgloss due to that "doctor tell", which I trusted but Dsell pointed out and said he found it sketchy.  That leaves Eevee and yuma.

I think what I want is for Eevee, yuma and Voltgloss to claim.  I can claim too.  Then, we can use Axxle's knowledge to try to work out who is lying.

If all town roles are exposed, what is the math on town success assuming that the Mafia get a successful NK each night?
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1173 on: June 13, 2012, 05:52:06 pm »

I think what I want is for Eevee, yuma and Voltgloss to claim.  I can claim too.  Then, we can use Axxle's knowledge to try to work out who is lying.

I actually think this is a really good idea. Maybe. The only thing I'm worried about is my entire brain being turned upside down. But no, I think this is good and then Axxle can report back.

Though like I said earlier, IF Axxle trusts me and O and investigated neither one of us, he can determine 100% who at least one mafia is.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1174 on: June 13, 2012, 05:53:23 pm »

1) Really, the best analogy there is the original WIFOM: Where both glasses are poisoned and I'm immune to the poison  ;D
2) I don't quite understand how I guarantee living in this situation: At the time of the so-called-gambit, I had every reason to assume Jo was Vig and not SK. So when Jo picks me and doesn't kill me, he as Vig would get me killed unless I did your desperation jailkeep scenario, which seems unlikely to prevail.

So yea, basically I think this possible case against me fails because it assumes I had knowledge that J was SK and not Vig, when I really had no way of confirming this D1.

It's not really a "desperation jailkeep scenario" because you don't have to bring it up as a possibility.  If Vig jo said "I tried and failed", someone will inevitably bring that up as a possibility.  And it could force a jailkeeper to claim, which might not even be believed.

Even if you count that possibility as a negative outcome for mafia, it's still just one out of several, and the payoff on success is amazing.

For the record, I'm largely posting that theory so that I can get some cred if it turns out to be true.  ;)

I don't really want to focus on you, O, because I can see you going either way.  Similar for Dsell, though I've found him extremely suspicious.  The same for Voltgloss due to that "doctor tell", which I trusted but Dsell pointed out and said he found it sketchy.  That leaves Eevee and yuma.

I think what I want is for Eevee, yuma and Voltgloss to claim.  I can claim too.  Then, we can use Axxle's knowledge to try to work out who is lying.

If all town roles are exposed, what is the math on town success assuming that the Mafia get a successful NK each night?

Low, but obviously dependent on what role we have (if had just had a 1-shot bulletproof townie... well, like I've said, lynch Insomniac is a good option).

I mean, assume axxle is telling the truth: we have a rolecop, which is OK. Except we have tons of VT. And the Serial Killer investigated as innocent. And any power that the rolecop gets from investigating mafia.. means that the mafia has one more power role.

So Rolecop only really works on a) our protective role and b) any mafia power-roles. We kind of lucked into the SK claiming one.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1175 on: June 13, 2012, 05:56:39 pm »

Back from school but soon to be off to work:

First: I am disappointed that Morgrim wasn't Mafia, but believe our suspicion of him to be justified. I had been on him all game long and his behavior was exactly the same throughout up to the point that he cast his crazy O vote. There was no deviation from that. I wish he would have realized how odd he played to lessen our suspicion of him.

Second: The oddest thing about yesterday to me was Dsell's quote about my Day 1 suspicions of Morgrim. I said later that it seemed to be an attempt to distract away from the Morgrim bandwagon to save him. That wasn't a correct analysis. But now I wonder if Dsell's use of that quote was to prime me up for suspicion after Morgrim was killed. Is the following a far fetched scenario or plausable? -- Dsell knows that Morgrim is town because Dsell is Mafia. He sees that everyone in the town--as well as 1 or other 2 Mafia--is ready to lynch Morgrim so doesn't see the need to join in. He uses that quote, which for town purposes served no useful purpose, to blame me for the catalyst of it and then gets another townie lynched the next day? Unfortunately for him both eHal and I see that it is an odd post and mention as such, so he doesn't bring it up again today. I don't know. It was a weird post even if he wasn't using it maliciously.

Third: Eevee has voted for the lynche every time.

Fourth: Are we assuming that the only possible town roles we have can only be Doc or Jail. Are there other possibilities out there?

Fifth: I am a little confused about this whole Volt partial reveal. I didn't notice it myself.

Sixth: I need to read over eHalycon's analysis of O. If true that would change everything. Anyone want to provide a little more info about Godfather.

Pre-post edit: @eHal Are we at the place where we want to start claiming. How does everyone else feel about that. Remember yesterday it was the partial mass claim that ultimately led to Morgrim's lynch.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1176 on: June 13, 2012, 06:06:58 pm »

He uses that quote, which for town purposes served no useful purpose, to blame me for the catalyst of it and then gets another townie lynched the next day? Unfortunately for him both eHal and I see that it is an odd post and mention as such, so he doesn't bring it up again today. I don't know. It was a weird post even if he wasn't using it maliciously.

First, it IS useful to the town if it brings up some suspicion on a mafia who's been lurking and who hasn't seen any suspicion.

Second, I DID bring it up again today.

For the record, I am largely suspicious of Eevee, yuma, and Voltgloss. They were all on that bandwagon, Eevee got Robz killed to squish that suspicion, yuma was on the Morgrim bandwagon on day 1 and day 3, and Volt has been generally very scummy, especially day 3. I think the fact that he hammered Morgrim is not insignificant.

Yuma, you have no suspicions? This looks like a lot of Information Instead of Analysis.

Also, would you like to expand on your very brief point about Eevee?

I can't speak for others but I think lylo is as good a time as any for a role reveal. So I think you should.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1177 on: June 13, 2012, 06:21:51 pm »

Do not claim yet.  I think Axxle should be the one to tell us to do it.  He has the information, he should lead us from here.  I think Axxle should specifically ask one person to claim, then the next, etc.  He shouldn't tell us any reasoning for the order he chooses.  Maybe he picks the person he knows to be X and then watches for subsequent counterclaims.  Or maybe he picks someone he has no info on to see if they make a false claim (because he already found someone else with that role).

Note when I say "subsequent counterclaims" that people should not just out and out say "hey, you're not that X, I'm X".  Rather, they should wait for Axxle to direct them to counterclaim if they so wish.  I think this is the safest approach, with the least chance of chaos and confusion.


Also, I'd already forgotten that Dsell had mentioned Eevee and yuma.  Hm.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1178 on: June 13, 2012, 06:26:27 pm »

Do not claim yet.  I think Axxle should be the one to tell us to do it.  He has the information, he should lead us from here.  I think Axxle should specifically ask one person to claim, then the next, etc.  He shouldn't tell us any reasoning for the order he chooses.  Maybe he picks the person he knows to be X and then watches for subsequent counterclaims.  Or maybe he picks someone he has no info on to see if they make a false claim (because he already found someone else with that role).

Yeah, this is a better idea. I mean, maybe Axxle doesn't need to take us through that whole process, but he should probably be the one to make that decision. And is Axxle waiting for Eevee to comment? I don't remember.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1179 on: June 13, 2012, 06:28:19 pm »

If we all claim, then Axxle might be able to catch one of us in a lie.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1180 on: June 13, 2012, 06:31:24 pm »

For yuma's other points...

1. Yeah.

2. I thought Dsell's post was odd but I wouldn't go so far as to say he was trying to make you look like the catalyst for anything.  Morgrim has played erratically the entire time.  I jumped on that and laid out a decent case (in day 2 I think?  don't want to find a link again).  O started the actual wagon on day 3, and I was the second vote.  I feel I'm one of the more responsible for getting Morgrim lynched, and O close behind me.

3. So have others.  I have.

4. I am operating on that assumption.  I will not name any other possibilities.  We'll see if something exotic gets claimed.

5. Alright.

6. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Godfather

And no, don't claim yet.  Axxle has to be leader here.

PPE @O: Yes.  But we should wait for Axxle, and we shouldn't have it be mass claim all at once.  It will be better if Axxle orchestrates it, without giving reason for how he does it.  It makes every claim made by Mafia dangerous.  If they are forced to claim first, whatever they say is a gamble.  If they claim last, they are short on options.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1181 on: June 13, 2012, 06:54:32 pm »

Hmm... Ok. I was waiting for Eevee to comment but we already have a lot of activity so I'm going to start calling for claims.

First off:
Do O or DSell want to change their claim?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1182 on: June 13, 2012, 06:55:39 pm »

No. I am a Vanilla Townie.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1183 on: June 13, 2012, 06:56:05 pm »

*checks role PM*

Nope. Still mafia godfather Vanilla Townie.

No really, jokes aside I'm steadfastly standing by my VT claim.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1184 on: June 13, 2012, 06:58:30 pm »

Ok.  So Voltgloss, please to be claiming.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1185 on: June 13, 2012, 06:58:59 pm »

Maybe wait for Eevee anyway?  But your call.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1186 on: June 13, 2012, 07:03:07 pm »

Actually eHalcyon can you claim first?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1187 on: June 13, 2012, 07:08:51 pm »

Actually eHalcyon can you claim first?

I claim jailkeeper.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1188 on: June 13, 2012, 07:12:14 pm »

Who did you protect each day?

Any counter claims?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1189 on: June 13, 2012, 07:23:25 pm »

Are you sure you want to ask for counterclaims freely like this?  Might be better to continue one by one.

I did not use any of my jails to try to protect people.  Night 1 I jailed Morgrim, Night 2 I jailed Dsell.  I am fine with revealing these because Morgrim was VT and Dsell claims VT, and my jail had no effect on those nights.

I don't want to reveal Night 3 jail as it *may* interfere with followup claims.  I'm not sure if it can, but it might.  But if you think it is best that I say it now, I will.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1190 on: June 13, 2012, 07:25:18 pm »

Ok, I'll wait for those two things then.

yuma, I'd like your claim now.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1191 on: June 13, 2012, 07:27:25 pm »

Yuma be offline, FYI. So if you chose Yuma arbitrarily, probably switch. If Yuma needs to be in that position, we wait.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1192 on: June 13, 2012, 07:29:44 pm »

Not back to Voltgloss?  I hope you're thinking this through!

By the way, I have a fair amount of reasoning behind who to jail.  For nights 1 and 2 it was very much "I suspect this person, so I will jail him."  Night 3 was much more dangerous.  I put full reasoning in my PM to Insomniac because I wanted to save it somewhere.  Saved a copy of it to my outbox.  I can paste that here whenever you want.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1193 on: June 13, 2012, 07:39:34 pm »

Not back to Voltgloss?  I hope you're thinking this through!

By the way, I have a fair amount of reasoning behind who to jail.  For nights 1 and 2 it was very much "I suspect this person, so I will jail him."  Night 3 was much more dangerous.  I put full reasoning in my PM to Insomniac because I wanted to save it somewhere.  Saved a copy of it to my outbox.  I can paste that here whenever you want.

If you are town, and quote anything that shows it was directed to Insomniac, you'll get modkilled and I'll rage.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1194 on: June 13, 2012, 07:43:17 pm »

Hmm, I think my plan will work if Voltgloss reveals now.

Voltgloss, will you please reveal?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1195 on: June 13, 2012, 07:46:19 pm »

Not back to Voltgloss?  I hope you're thinking this through!

By the way, I have a fair amount of reasoning behind who to jail.  For nights 1 and 2 it was very much "I suspect this person, so I will jail him."  Night 3 was much more dangerous.  I put full reasoning in my PM to Insomniac because I wanted to save it somewhere.  Saved a copy of it to my outbox.  I can paste that here whenever you want.

If you are town, and quote anything that shows it was directed to Insomniac, you'll get modkilled and I'll rage.

Pasting it doesn't directly show it was related to Insomniac though, does it?  I mean, Mafia could say "I said this to Insomniac" as a lie.  I can avoid the actual quote button.  Basically I can say "I said this" and you have to decide if you believe me.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1196 on: June 13, 2012, 07:48:28 pm »

Not back to Voltgloss?  I hope you're thinking this through!

By the way, I have a fair amount of reasoning behind who to jail.  For nights 1 and 2 it was very much "I suspect this person, so I will jail him."  Night 3 was much more dangerous.  I put full reasoning in my PM to Insomniac because I wanted to save it somewhere.  Saved a copy of it to my outbox.  I can paste that here whenever you want.

just don't do it yet

If you are town, and quote anything that shows it was directed to Insomniac, you'll get modkilled and I'll rage.

Pasting it doesn't directly show it was related to Insomniac though, does it?  I mean, Mafia could say "I said this to Insomniac" as a lie.  I can avoid the actual quote button.  Basically I can say "I said this" and you have to decide if you believe me.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1197 on: June 13, 2012, 07:49:02 pm »

Not back to Voltgloss?  I hope you're thinking this through!

By the way, I have a fair amount of reasoning behind who to jail.  For nights 1 and 2 it was very much "I suspect this person, so I will jail him."  Night 3 was much more dangerous.  I put full reasoning in my PM to Insomniac because I wanted to save it somewhere.  Saved a copy of it to my outbox.  I can paste that here whenever you want.

just don't do it yet

If you are town, and quote anything that shows it was directed to Insomniac, you'll get modkilled and I'll rage.

Pasting it doesn't directly show it was related to Insomniac though, does it?  I mean, Mafia could say "I said this to Insomniac" as a lie.  I can avoid the actual quote button.  Basically I can say "I said this" and you have to decide if you believe me.

Misquote: "Just don't do it yet" supposed to be outside.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1198 on: June 13, 2012, 07:50:12 pm »

General Gameplay and Etiquette:
1. You may not quote private Moderator-supplied information (either real or fabricated) of any kind. Paraphrasing (for role claims, etc.) is acceptable.

This is the closest rule I can find.  If I quote myself, that is not "Moderator-supplied information".  And paraphrasing is acceptable, so pasting, not quoting, should be fine... right?

And yes, I am still waiting for the green light from Axxle.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1199 on: June 13, 2012, 07:54:11 pm »

I am VT.

The reason I was so convinced that one of Dsell or Morgrim must have been Mafia - and, now, given Dsell's confirming his claim, why I am convinced Dsell is Mafia - is because I knew there was one more VT in the mix:  myself.

I suspected Dsell jumping on the "let's claim" bandwagon as an effort by the Mafia to out a Doc among us.  Not being a Doc myself, I felt comfortable asking whether massclaim during mylo was wise.  Dsell is now reading whatever he can into my post to make me seem suspicious;  which I don't blame him for, because he is Mafia trying to discredit me.

O and eHalcyon's initial reads of my post were correct.  Dsell's read, made after I publicly suspected him, is not.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1200 on: June 13, 2012, 07:58:18 pm »

O and eHalcyon's initial reads of my post were correct.  Dsell's read, made after I publicly suspected him, is not.

Sorry, what initial reads of which post?  Again, I thought you were doctor because of the post that Dsell quoted.  But since you also mention O, I think you are talking about a different post.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1201 on: June 13, 2012, 08:00:27 pm »

O and eHalcyon's initial reads of my post were correct.  Dsell's read, made after I publicly suspected him, is not.

Sorry, what initial reads of which post?  Again, I thought you were doctor because of the post that Dsell quoted.  But since you also mention O, I think you are talking about a different post.

When you posted that you thought the post Dsell cited was an earnest inquiry, not a Doctor tell.  O then posted he didn't pick up on any "tell" when I first made that post.  Did I misunderstand one (or both) of you?
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1202 on: June 13, 2012, 08:04:53 pm »

O and eHalcyon's initial reads of my post were correct.  Dsell's read, made after I publicly suspected him, is not.

Sorry, what initial reads of which post?  Again, I thought you were doctor because of the post that Dsell quoted.  But since you also mention O, I think you are talking about a different post.

When you posted that you thought the post Dsell cited was an earnest inquiry, not a Doctor tell.  O then posted he didn't pick up on any "tell" when I first made that post.  Did I misunderstand one (or both) of you?

I meant that I thought you made an earnest inquiry AS a doctor, thus UNINTENTIONALLY leaving a doctor tell.  Basically, I didn't see why you would ask "what should a doctor do?" without also asking about jailkeeper.  You also said that you didn't think we had any roleblockers, of which jailkeeper is a type.  So why also assume we have a doctor?

Several others have said that they didn't notice that "tell", though Dsell obviously did.  I was particularly aware of it because, in all of my posts about power roles, I've been careful not to mention a hypothetical jailkeeper without also considering a hypothetical doctor.  I was afraid that someone would notice such a slip and realize, "he knows there is a jailkeeper but not if there is a doctor, so he must be a jailkeeper".  As a result, I myself was on the lookout for such a slip.  I thought I had found it in you.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1203 on: June 13, 2012, 08:11:48 pm »

What's next, Axxle? Can you say anything yet? Should eHalcyon post his night 3 jail? Do we need to hurry up and wait for Eevee and yuma?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1204 on: June 13, 2012, 08:12:48 pm »

I am here for about 5 minutes during break:

Interesting developments. Axxle do you still want me to claim now?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1205 on: June 13, 2012, 08:13:29 pm »

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1206 on: June 13, 2012, 08:14:07 pm »

yes yma
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1207 on: June 13, 2012, 08:20:23 pm »

K. I'll be quick since I don't have a lot of time and will write something more substansive when I get home in ~ 2 hours.

I am one-shot vigilante. I was not around when jot claimed earlier and I after Axxle outed him as SK or Mafia I saw no reason to reveal myself so I kept my role hidden.

I attempted to use my power, on Eevee, last night but was obviously not successful.

I'll be back as soon as I can.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1208 on: June 13, 2012, 08:22:06 pm »

It seems obvious to ask (but maybe I'm premature?): eHalcyon, did you jail Eevee last night?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1209 on: June 13, 2012, 08:23:02 pm »

Well that was unexpected.

Dsell, I will not answer that question unless Axxle asks me to.  I think it is harmless to answer but without knowing Axxle's plan, I think it's safer to wait.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1210 on: June 13, 2012, 08:27:01 pm »

Scratch that, I thought of some implications.  IMO it is better to hear Eevee's claim first.  But again, I defer to Axxle.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1211 on: June 13, 2012, 08:27:56 pm »

I want to hear from Eevee as well.  Both his claim and to reign in on developments.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1212 on: June 13, 2012, 08:32:11 pm »

He hasn't posted in 3 days, but he was on earlier today. I am going to die of anticipation. XD

Actually, it has been more than 48 hours, I believe. Can we get a prod, even if it's just a formality?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1213 on: June 13, 2012, 08:34:59 pm »

Prod has been sent
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1214 on: June 13, 2012, 08:37:43 pm »

I also urge a O vs. MrEevee match up for 3rd place.
cant play until the 14th, is that too late?

He won't be here today

Also, Eevee, I'll be flying tomorrow, so it'll have to be *after* the 14th

doesn't matter really because its for our own personal vanity anyways  :P
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1215 on: June 13, 2012, 08:39:08 pm »

For the record, yuma -- it's fine to say that you tried to kill someone last night, but you should have kept your target secret.  That information could have helped in other ways.  For example, if you are telling the truth and Axxle had investigated you last night, then he could have potentially used that information to verify my own claim by having me state who I jailed.

I think the best course right now is for none of us to post speculations on the veracity of each claim.  In the possible case that Eevee is mafia, we don't want to give him information re: town temperament that would help him determine the best claim to make.  No need to give the Mafia ideas here.

With people not being around, I guess that's going to make for a boring few days coming up.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1216 on: June 13, 2012, 11:32:59 pm »

For the record, yuma -- it's fine to say that you tried to kill someone last night, but you should have kept your target secret.  That information could have helped in other ways.  For example, if you are telling the truth and Axxle had investigated you last night, then he could have potentially used that information to verify my own claim by having me state who I jailed.

I think the best course right now is for none of us to post speculations on the veracity of each claim.  In the possible case that Eevee is mafia, we don't want to give him information re: town temperament that would help him determine the best claim to make.  No need to give the Mafia ideas here.

With people not being around, I guess that's going to make for a boring few days coming up.

You may be right about revealing too much. I wanted to be as straightforward as possible and didn't realize it could be hazardous information. Hopefully it won't cause too much damage.

Seeing as we are waiting for Eevee before speculating I won't expound on my reveal as I was planning.

I think a few boring days might do us some good.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1217 on: June 13, 2012, 11:59:23 pm »

Since I'm leaving early Friday morning, I'm going to park my vote on someone tomorrow night either based on Axxle's suggestion or my own reasoning if I don't hear from him.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1218 on: June 14, 2012, 12:00:50 am »

Okay!

First of all, I apologize for being absent. I was travelling home for almost 30 hours (missed one flight due to first plane being late 3.5 hours, ughhh) and slept for another 15. My info box shows me I've been online for 5 days straight which obviously isnt true so leaving the page open on my ipad/laptop probably causes that. I did try to check if the day had started before falling asleep yesterday but it hadnt or I was so tired that I missed it.. anyways, home now, lots of time to post. I'm on europe time though (gmt+2), guessing the time difference is something like 10 hours so that might make being online when all of you are a bit tricky.

2nd thing on the list, I claim VT.

My thoughts/analysis on the situation, player by player:

Myself: VT. Pretty darn sure about this.

Axxle: I see no reason not to trust Axxle (and as others have pointed out, even if you give axxle lying 10% or 20% or even 40%, doesnt really matter given we are dead lost anyways if thats the case). So Axxle = town rolecop.

yuma: This is interesting. The thing is, we can only have so many VT's and knowing my own role, anyone claiming VT instantly becomes more suspicous than someone claiming a reasonable power role. And yuma claiming one-shot vigilante is very reasonable. Butttt, if yuma is mafia, he has to know claiming VT at this point is very risky. He has to know claiming something else is better if he can make it believable. One shot vigilante plays so similar to VT + no real risk of counterclaims (since there could be two of those for all we know) makes me think its actually a tad too convenient for yuma.. making me more suspicious of him. Also, me being targeted by a OSV is in itself very believable (I have a terrible terrible voting record + was suspected some and never really cleared my name 100%)  but yuma specifically never voiced any suspicions towards me (iirc) so deciding to use his ability last night to kill me makes me wonder. Can you explain why you did this? I'll expand on why I'm suspicious of this claim later on this post.

eHalcyon: This to me is actually much more believable. First of all, eHal's actions especially today have been very pro-town. Secondly, If I was mafia, I'd be scared of claiming jailkeeper because of the risk of counter claims (he was one of the first to claim too?).  Given I think eHalcyon is genuine, the yet to be revealed mystery of who was jailed last night actually helps some with deciding about yuma. Doesnt look like we have a doctor (and even if we did, he wouldnt have saved me), so the only explanation for me living if yuma isnt lying is a) yuma got jailed (why?) or b) I got jailed (that I can believe maybe?). Conclusion: f this gets to yuma's word against eHalcyons word, I'd atm be believing eHalcyon.

O: I guessss I do believe he is town after all. Not 100% I-place-all-my-trust-on-you-and-let-you-vote-for-me, but still. The reasons that made me suspect you earlier just seem to be a part of your playing style. I dont think O's proposal to joh clears him at all though, seems like an equally weird town move?? The godfather theory is interesting and would explain that but... uhhh. Conclusion: yeah, probably just a VT.

Voltgloss: I realize I've earlier said "he seems very town" on multiple occasions. Well, that has not been true today anymore. Not saying I got a particular mafia-vibe out of him, but unless Insomniac is playing a sick prank on us (I mean, it is possible we just have no mafia amongst us whatsoever lol, but maybe I'm just eager to find any explanation for my (lack of) success in voting for mafia this far), we do have 3 mafia and others seem more town to me now. That doctor or not "confusion" doesn't look damning to me fwiw, if he decided to plant that hint earlier as mafia, I think he would have claimed doctor now given we still have no other doctor around (opportune moment to claim if there ever was one?). Also to remember: Volt seems like a super smart player so need to be really careful to not be fooled when he responds to this. Conclusion: somewhat suspicious.

Dsell: The guy I'm most suspicious of. I would hope to be more certain but it is what it is. The reasons I think Dsell is mafia: a) claiming VT (explained above) b) really eager to mass claim, seems like a way to fish for information as mafia c) well.. everyone else is less suspicious.

The fact no one died: This might be useless speculation since eHalcyon will be revealing who he jailed after I post but.. the thing that makes me very suspicious of yuma is that no one died. Mafia obviously tried to kill someone (this has to be the case, right?) and yuma claims he tried to kill me. We dont have a doctor. No one died. Three possibilities:

a) yuma got jailed, mafia tried to kill yuma
b) I got jailed, mafia tried to kill me
c) yuma is lying and is mafia, either the mafia guy who was making the kill or the intended target was jailed.

a) seems possible I guess, but yuma seems somewhat of a surprising target for both the jailkeeper (well, eHalcyon is going to clear this) and mafia (maybe if yuma is being genuine and mafia has a rolecop?) so this would be hell of a coincidence.
b) even if eHalcyon thought I was likely mafia, I'm still a terrible target to jailkeep given every possible mafia team would have someone less suspicious than me who could do the killing (who kills is not random, mafia gets to pick, right?). Also, dont know why mafia would target me since I have no power role and was suspected more than most. Again, seems quite unlikely.
c) what I think happened. This might help us clear someone if eHalcyon didnt jail yuma (if we believe eHalcyon that is, and I'm very inclined to do so).

So yeah, I'm guessing the mafia team is Dsell, Volt and yuma (unless O is a godfather or eHalcyon is lying which would make this a whole new ballgame.. as I said, very inclined to believe them both) One of the more damning things about Volt and Dsell is the VT claim, so if O actually is a godfather.. yeah. Actually hoping Axxle investigated O now. If Volt, Dsell, myself or O have been investigated and are something but vanilla, doesnt that mean that person was lying and is mafia? (Also by the same logic, if yuma or eHalcyon was investigated and turned up vanilla, they were lying and must be mafia?)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1219 on: June 14, 2012, 12:00:59 am »

Since I'm leaving early Friday morning, I'm going to park my vote on someone tomorrow night either based on Axxle's suggestion or my own reasoning if I don't hear from him.

It's freaking lylo..
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1220 on: June 14, 2012, 12:15:33 am »

I don't know if we needed that analysis, yuma.  Like I said, any analysis we give may just prompt the Mafia to push certain town feelings into a mislynch.

I am not going to reveal my jail target until prompted by Axxle.  I'll say for now that my choice of target was influenced by some apparently poor assumptions -- that we had a doctor, and that the doctor was Voltgloss.

Also might be interesting if we had a doctor who was lying about being VT.  As long as he doesn't get lynched, that's actually the best position for us because there's just a little bit more chance that the doctor will survive the night if we lynch correctly.  The nice thing is that if Axxle finds the doctor, he doesn't have to share that information.  In fact, he doesn't have to tell us anything at all today if he has enough information to determine who to lynch.  It would be a stronger position for the town if he could keep that information secret until day 4.

The only reason for Axxle to give any more info than who to lynch is if he thinks he is in danger.  That may be the case now -- maybe the Mafia has left him alone so far because they were afraid of a doctor.  Now that no claim has been made, they may go after him.

Oh, since I've claimed I may as well ask this -- if Axxle investigates someone who is in jail, does he still get a result?  I assume that he does.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1221 on: June 14, 2012, 12:18:31 am »

Since I'm leaving early Friday morning, I'm going to park my vote on someone tomorrow night either based on Axxle's suggestion or my own reasoning if I don't hear from him.

It's freaking lylo..
He was always going to be gone then.  Also, we only have a day of discussion after that before the deadline anyway.

Thanks Eevee.  Because there aren't any other protective roles I know that eHalcyon is telling the truth.  If you can tell us who you jailed today that'd be great.

Can you reveal who you jailed, eHalc? I don't see why not, and we need all the information we can.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1222 on: June 14, 2012, 12:19:56 am »

I'll hold on to my investigative information for now.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1223 on: June 14, 2012, 12:22:32 am »

Err, I mean Eevee.  We didn't need that analysis, Eevee.

What information do we still have that hasn't been divulged?  There is my jail target and the reasoning for my jail target.  There is the reasoning for yuma's alleged attempt on Eevee (very, very curious about this one -- if true, it's an extremely dangerous gambit for a townie).  Is there anything else?

And again, I don't think anyone should say anything about it until prompted by Axxle.



@Dsell -- when will you return?  If Axxle doesn't give us a target before you go, it's better for us to wait until you get back.  If you just park a vote, the Mafia could very easily hammer.  It just takes 4 to lynch, right?  That would be game over.  That you even suggest it is sketchy... but I'm getting too close to breaking my own recommended analysis-silence.  :-X

PPE: I jailed yuma.  Do you want the reasoning behind it?  Do you want my analysis of what this means for yuma's claim?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1224 on: June 14, 2012, 12:27:10 am »

Claims:

Rolecop: Axxle
Jailkeeper: Ehalycon
One-Shot Vig: Yuma
VT:O, Eevee, Voltgloss, Dsell

WOO!
Mafia suck. They really screwed this up.
Axxle and Ehalycon are both telling the truth (confirmed townies), unless we have lying townies or Axxle has master-played us (Jailkeeper + 1shot vig seems light)

if not, how did we survive the night?

That leaves us with 5 people with probably 3 mafia, *before* axxle and ehalycon reveal

O (damn), Voltgloss, Yuma, Voltgloss, Eevee, Yuma

Now Yuma's 1shot vig claim confirms little: If he's mafia, he claims 1shot vig and knows who to say he targeted because he knows the mafia kill got blocked (maybe he was selected to make the kill).

Fortunately, this is confirmable via cop inspection, so if it hasn't already been done we can do it tomorrow, in the now-likely odds that we live.

Axxle + Ehalycon, it's probably time to reveal.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1225 on: June 14, 2012, 12:28:14 am »

"analysis-silence"

erm... oops.. sorry about that one.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1226 on: June 14, 2012, 12:31:40 am »

O, reveal what?  Axxle still has info but we can still hold that back.  I still have my reason for targeting yuma but it's not too difficult to work out and probably won't help that much (but I'm holding it anyway).

The major issue is still that Axxle could very well die on us tonight, even if we do good today.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1227 on: June 14, 2012, 12:32:22 am »

Reveal Axxle's investigation..
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1228 on: June 14, 2012, 12:33:41 am »

I think it's still safe to hold onto it for a bit.

Writing up thoughts on yuma right now, in case we want it.  I encourage everyone to write up their analyses too... just maybe not post them yet.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1229 on: June 14, 2012, 12:34:45 am »

right. Jailkeeper, not doctor. Still think we want axxles investigation regardless.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1230 on: June 14, 2012, 12:37:43 am »

and no I'm not rushing because I'm mafia, I'm rushing because I'm excited that we might win after surviving MYLO and being in LYLO.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1231 on: June 14, 2012, 12:39:29 am »

My information doesn't catch scum in a lie unfortunately so I don't think it's useful to reveal right now
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1232 on: June 14, 2012, 12:41:08 am »

That's unfortunate.

So what's the next piece of information to reveal?  I think I want to hear yuma's reason for targeting Eevee before I say anything else.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1233 on: June 14, 2012, 12:41:31 am »

@O

Yeah I just have no choice. Hopefully we will be decided by then but if not, that's the only way my vote matters.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1234 on: June 14, 2012, 12:42:07 am »

My information doesn't catch scum in a lie unfortunately so I don't think it's useful to reveal right now

Ok. Then Ehalycon's soon-to-be-analysis I probably agree with if I'm right about where it lands.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1235 on: June 14, 2012, 12:42:55 am »


That leaves us with 5 people with probably 3 mafia, *before* axxle and ehalycon reveal

O (damn), Voltgloss, Yuma, Voltgloss, Eevee, Yuma


Derp. O, Volt, Yuma, Dsell, Eevee.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1236 on: June 14, 2012, 12:45:00 am »

My information doesn't catch scum in a lie unfortunately so I don't think it's useful to reveal right now

Erm that's not quite true. If you got a vanilla result, it lends credence to a VT claim even if they might still be vanilla mafia/godfather (without BP vest).
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1237 on: June 14, 2012, 12:45:47 am »

My information doesn't catch scum in a lie unfortunately so I don't think it's useful to reveal right now

Erm that's not quite true. If you got a vanilla result, it lends credence to a VT claim even if they might still be vanilla mafia/godfather (without BP vest).

Edit: Investigate-vanilla godfather makes no sense given our roles, so yea, only vanilla mafia.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1238 on: June 14, 2012, 12:46:06 am »

After all this I stand by my former mafia prediction of Yuma, volt, and eevee. In particular, eevee mentioned both of them as probable mafia, but listed me as more suspicious. Why not throw suspicion on fellow mafia as long as you say a townie is even moreso?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1239 on: June 14, 2012, 12:47:44 am »

My information doesn't catch scum in a lie unfortunately so I don't think it's useful to reveal right now

Ok. Then Ehalycon's soon-to-be-analysis I probably agree with if I'm right about where it lands.

FWIW my analysis isn't going to point any fingers.  I'm trying to look at it from all possibilities and then we can discuss the probability of each scenario.  My judgement has not been so good in the past so I think I will leave the final choice to Axxle.  Then if we lose, we can blame him. ;)

But again, I want to hear yuma's reasoning.


PPE: I think there has to be SOME sort of Mafia role, or else the rolecop power is even weaker.  :-\
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1240 on: June 14, 2012, 12:50:37 am »

My information doesn't catch scum in a lie unfortunately so I don't think it's useful to reveal right now

Ok. Then Ehalycon's soon-to-be-analysis I probably agree with if I'm right about where it lands.

FWIW my analysis isn't going to point any fingers.  I'm trying to look at it from all possibilities and then we can discuss the probability of each scenario.  My judgement has not been so good in the past so I think I will leave the final choice to Axxle.  Then if we lose, we can blame him. ;)

But again, I want to hear yuma's reasoning.


PPE: I think there has to be SOME sort of Mafia role, or else the rolecop power is even weaker.  :-\

Rolecop in a game with 1 other town PR, all vanilla mafia, and a vanilla-investigating SK... lolz.

Could be mafia rolecop, or mafia strongman (IE Godfather that people are accusing me of being).
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1241 on: June 14, 2012, 12:52:26 am »

I've quickly caught up.  So I'm clear, before we go any further we're waiting for (1) yuma to explain why he tried to kill Eevee, then (2) eHalcyon to explain why he jailed yuma, correct? 
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1242 on: June 14, 2012, 12:54:06 am »

Rolecop in a game with 1 other town PR, all vanilla mafia, and a vanilla-investigating SK... lolz.

Could be mafia rolecop, or mafia strongman (IE Godfather that people are accusing me of being).

Not people, just me.  And I only offered it up as a possibility.  If it turns out to be true, more cred for me. ;)



PPE: @Volt, that's what I'm waiting for.  My reasoning for jailing yuma is not likely to be a game-changer, but yuma's explanation... maybe...
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1243 on: June 14, 2012, 12:57:21 am »

Ok, big reveal that I wanted to keep to myself because I didn't want to bring attention to a moderating mistake:

def started out as a Cop on Day 1 but Insomniac accidentally PM'd me Rolecop information.  Because it completely exposed J for who he was, Insomniac and I decided to just let it stand because for all intents and purposes I could have been a Rolecop from the beginning anyway.  I don't think neither he nor I realized just how much worse a rolecop is for town.  I have no idea how that messes up the math for Mafia vs. Town.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1244 on: June 14, 2012, 12:58:00 am »

There are probably a lot more Vanilla dudes than you guys expect.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1245 on: June 14, 2012, 12:58:30 am »

I would definitely like to hear Yuma's reasoning before eHalc's.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1246 on: June 14, 2012, 01:00:43 am »

Ok, big reveal that I wanted to keep to myself because I didn't want to bring attention to a moderating mistake:

def started out as a Cop on Day 1 but Insomniac accidentally PM'd me Rolecop information.  Because it completely exposed J for who he was, Insomniac and I decided to just let it stand because for all intents and purposes I could have been a Rolecop from the beginning anyway.  I don't think neither he nor I realized just how much worse a rolecop is for town.  I have no idea how that messes up the math for Mafia vs. Town.

Ouch.  But how does that work?  Your rolecop read on jo was "no role".  Does Cop just get scum/not scum?  Wouldn't cop have gotten the same info?  Bah.

Not worth dwelling on, I guess.  :-\
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1247 on: June 14, 2012, 01:03:34 am »

Cop would get scum/no scum, so J would have returned "no scum" and I wouldn't have known he was lying.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1248 on: June 14, 2012, 01:22:53 am »

FWIW, I just checked the pages from jo's role claim until the lock.  yuma's only post:

Gaah.... I am back and exhausted after a long drive.

I skimmed over the soooo many new pages to read. I don't have much of substance to add at this point because 1. I am exhausted and 2. I only skimmed over the reading.

I am not even going to try to read everything and get a substantive post before the lock. I am tired. The only thing I have to say echos eHalcyon. I would like jotheonah to try to use his power, but the decision is his. I don't fully understand these roles and the possible repercussions for using them, but if jotheonah really is this power role I think he would understand best when to use it. But not using it doesn't help us trust you any more.

I'll see you all after the night.

So yuma's story checks out, I think?  Make of it what you will.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1249 on: June 14, 2012, 01:45:52 am »

Just read Axxle's reveal.  ...yeah, the original planned presence of a full-blown Cop would certainly justify there being so many VT's around. 

So, my very quick view:  Axxle is as closest to confirmed town as we're likely to get.  eHalc comes next (I do want to hear why he chose yuma to jail; I understand he's waiting to hear yuma's targeting reasons first).  Eevee and Dsell are the most suspicious, just by virtue of having claimed VT - and in fact I wouldn't be surprised if they are BOTH mafia.  O is also claimed VT but less suspicious than Eevee/Dsell due to past behavior;  yuma is a question mark until we hear his reasoning for targeting Eevee.  This all just by process-of-elimination and the day's roleclaims.

I will need to go back and review Eevee's and Dsell's posts to see which I think is more likely scum.  I'm... not sure when I will have time to do that; maybe not until the weekend, and most likely not before Dsell leaves, unfortunately. 
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1250 on: June 14, 2012, 01:59:30 am »

Just read Axxle's reveal.  ...yeah, the original planned presence of a full-blown Cop would certainly justify there being so many VT's around. 

So, my very quick view:  Axxle is as closest to confirmed town as we're likely to get.  eHalc comes next (I do want to hear why he chose yuma to jail; I understand he's waiting to hear yuma's targeting reasons first).  Eevee and Dsell are the most suspicious, just by virtue of having claimed VT - and in fact I wouldn't be surprised if they are BOTH mafia.  O is also claimed VT but less suspicious than Eevee/Dsell due to past behavior;  yuma is a question mark until we hear his reasoning for targeting Eevee.  This all just by process-of-elimination and the day's roleclaims.

I will need to go back and review Eevee's and Dsell's posts to see which I think is more likely scum.  I'm... not sure when I will have time to do that; maybe not until the weekend, and most likely not before Dsell leaves, unfortunately.

Wrong, actually. Ehalycon is the most confirmed person we have, as nobody died last night and Ehalycon was the only one to claim a protective role.

Second is still obviously Axxle, the claimed Cop with no counterclaim and a correct call on our SK.

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1251 on: June 14, 2012, 02:03:33 am »

Just read Axxle's reveal.  ...yeah, the original planned presence of a full-blown Cop would certainly justify there being so many VT's around. 

So, my very quick view:  Axxle is as closest to confirmed town as we're likely to get.  eHalc comes next (I do want to hear why he chose yuma to jail; I understand he's waiting to hear yuma's targeting reasons first).  Eevee and Dsell are the most suspicious, just by virtue of having claimed VT - and in fact I wouldn't be surprised if they are BOTH mafia.  O is also claimed VT but less suspicious than Eevee/Dsell due to past behavior;  yuma is a question mark until we hear his reasoning for targeting Eevee.  This all just by process-of-elimination and the day's roleclaims.

I will need to go back and review Eevee's and Dsell's posts to see which I think is more likely scum.  I'm... not sure when I will have time to do that; maybe not until the weekend, and most likely not before Dsell leaves, unfortunately.

Wrong, actually. Ehalycon is the most confirmed person we have, as nobody died last night and Ehalycon was the only one to claim a protective role.

Second is still obviously Axxle, the claimed Cop with no counterclaim and a correct call on our SK.

Fair enough.  I don't suspect either of them regardless. 
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1252 on: June 14, 2012, 02:04:06 am »

Axxle and eHalcyon are confirmed town in my mind. I'm not even considering any other possibilities. For the ONE other townie out there besides them and me, only one person is telling you the truth. You need to decide which person is telling the truth. If you are right, then ALL others (again, excepting Axxle and eHal) are mafia.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1253 on: June 14, 2012, 02:06:51 am »

I have figured out who I believe and am ready to vote on that conviction since Axxle's investigation did not catch anyone in a lie (though I would still like to hear it from Axxle after yuma responds to the questions that have been raised). I am just waiting for yuma's response to vote, basically.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1254 on: June 14, 2012, 02:54:22 am »

We have 7 still alive, 3 Mafia.  If Dsell is town then we have 3 townies, 3 Mafia and we won't lynch Mafia unless someone gets bussed.  If Dsell is Mafia we actually have a chance without his vote.  Probably a better chance, actually.  But if we think Dsell is Mafia then we might as well vote for him... if there's a question to it, we have to determine who is most likely.

I am saying all this without saying who I think is most likely.  Still waiting on yuma.  Axxle's "should've been a cop" reveal does change things up a bit...  But again, waiting on yuma before I elaborate.  Others may already be thinking about this things, of course.

In the real possibility that we won't be able to get to a vote before Dsell leaves,

Insomniac, can we get a deadline extension?

We may not need it since we should have a day after Dsell returns(?), but just in case.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1255 on: June 14, 2012, 02:54:58 am »

First paragraph is who we have, minus Dsell.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1256 on: June 14, 2012, 02:59:56 am »

Nope, coming back the 23rd.  :-\
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1257 on: June 14, 2012, 03:03:22 am »

Also, I have no idea if it's possible, but I'd love if we could get the day mostly settled by tomorrow rather than having a deadline extension. I'd much rather finish the day when I remember things and then start a new day fresh after a break.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1258 on: June 14, 2012, 03:06:36 am »

OK so yeah, can we get an extension?

And if Axxle is OK with it, I think you might as well post who you intend to vote and the rationale behind it before you leave.  But don't actually vote.  I defer to Axxle because he still has more information... though I'm not sure he has anything actually useful.  From what he's said, it's doubtful he found a Mafia role.  Possibly he can confirm yuma's claim.  Maybe he can confirm my claim, though that's not really necessary at this point (and if he had that info he probably wouldn't have had me claim until the end, or at all).

But I digress.  Dsell should post intended vote and reasons if Axxle approves.  I'd prefer it if yuma speaks first but we might not have that chance, whether by chance or by design.

PPE: I agree it would be best if we settled things.  Do you still have the full day tomorrow?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1259 on: June 14, 2012, 03:11:13 am »

but we might not have that chance, whether by chance or by design.

Ugh.  Wish I could edit this to use a different word.  Dramatic phrasing fail.  :P
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1260 on: June 14, 2012, 03:13:11 am »

If everyone wants an extension and it will be needed I will grant one, as we knew ahead of time Dsell would be leaving. Because not everyone might want an extension I'll ask for this by PM so as to make who votes which way secret
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1261 on: June 14, 2012, 03:15:29 am »

In all honesty the only reason I have the balls to do this is because I'm town.

Vote: No extension this week, possible extension next week.

I don't want to win with a cheap extension on our backs, and we have already laid out all the information we'll have (minus Axxle's inspection), so we might aswell try and finish this now. As i'll be in hawaii my internet access will also be iffy for the next week.

P-edit: I'm fine with it public, I'm vetoing it now. Plus this way we don't have to wait for a mafia currently not online to veto it, maybe after Dsell already leaves.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1262 on: June 14, 2012, 03:17:04 am »

I have the full day minus late at night (leaving at 4 am :o ), but I will be very busy. I'm gonna do my very best to keep up though. Between my ipod and getting a little time on my computer, I should manage.

I also have a potential plan for how to handle the night roles, assuming we lynch mafia today. So I guess I would love to be alive for the end of the day. Slash I can post it tomorrow.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1263 on: June 14, 2012, 03:36:14 am »

so guys.. lets get talking?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1264 on: June 14, 2012, 03:38:54 am »

Really, O?  ???  Fine.  :P

@Dsell, post your night plan after yuma responds.  Or if Axxle thinks it's fine, maybe post it even sooner.

PPE: I still really, really want to wait for yuma's reason for choosing Eevee over any other target, or no target at all.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1265 on: June 14, 2012, 03:48:34 am »

In hindsight, once I was confirmed town, I wish I had claimed that I had jailed someone superfluous, like Voltgloss, just to see how everyone would respond.  The danger, of course, is that people might get overzealous and quick-hammer based on my lie.  ;D

Claiming I had jailed Axxle might be even better, though it would have been most effective before others had claimed, when I was not yet confirmed.  ::)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1266 on: June 14, 2012, 03:51:10 am »

Because it is a really crucial time for the other townies to believe my town status, consider the following:

Myself and Axxle are the only two living players remaining who were not on the Morgrim wagon. I am the only one left who did not vote for him at all. By doing this, by advocating against a hasty lynch even when I thought Morgrim looked suspicious (but warned that his erratic play has made him look suspicious in the past!), I was really sticking my neck out there if he turned out to be mafia. If we both turn out to be town, I was just advocating smart play.

However, the fact that I was not on the Morgrim wagon has not shielded me from any suspicion. In fact, some have already suggested that I deliberately stayed off to evade suspicion (thus singling me out for suspicion).

The question is, were ALL of the Mafia on the Morgrim wagon?  Or did one of them stay off when it was clear his vote wouldn't be needed, to try to build his credibility for the following day (if it came)?

It's a hard question to answer.  Which is why my suspicion of you isn't really dependent on it.  I'm suspicious of you for the same reasons I was suspicious of Morgrim:  based on the town/mafia power balance, I cannot believe that all three of you, O, and Morgrim are VTs. 

The simple fact that I was not on the Morgrim wagon does not guarantee my town status. That's fair. It doesn't. But to single me out for suspicion because I stayed off the bandwagon seems to stretch things. Though Volt had agreed in the previous paragraph that at least some (indeed, two of three at minimum) of the mafia were on the Morgrim wagon, he named no names as suspicious and glazed over that fact.

As town, my day 3 actions make sense. Advocating smart town play at the risk of appearing to defend mafia (better than hastily lynching town!). As mafia, my day 3 actions make no sense: If Morgrim was mafia I'd be the next obvious lynch. And if he's town, I still get suspicion heaped on because it would be "such a smart mafia play to defend a townie when the lynch is imminent." The far better plan is to blend in, blame Morgrim, and appear sad after we mislynch. After all, the game was practically won for the mafia after that mislynch, right?

I'm smart enough to know that someone would pick up on the argument Volt made. I thought it could very well be mafia who made it. After all, if the whole mafia IS on the bandwagon, what better place to point than the lone guy standing apart? So why, as mafia, would I want to make myself stand out like that while advocating what was clearly good town play, i.e. not being hasty when in mylo.

The fatal flaw but-not-really that I caught in the pre-post edit: If I'm mafia and stayed off the bandwagon, maybe I could have gotten away with defending Morgrim. My mafia buddies wouldn't call me out and the town might completely overlook the idea that I was mafia, feeling bad after lynching one of their own. But this did not happen, I was called out. So is Volt town and just made the horrible argument that even though I defended town, I am the most suspicious? Looks like mafia picking on the easiest target to me guys.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1267 on: June 14, 2012, 03:54:38 am »

As a corollary to my final idea, I really wasn't even the easiest to pick on. Eevee and yuma both had worse records than I and had just helped lynch town. They had also lurked more. If Volt was looking for an easy target (assuming he's mafia here), why go for me instead of them? Easy, because they're chummy. Just remember this when Volt flips mafia.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1268 on: June 14, 2012, 04:07:34 am »

I honestly don't see how me posting my pick-ups can hurt so here it is:

Scummiest: Yuma. To believe his claim is to believe that the 1-shot vig was targeted (33% chance assuming they're smart enough to ignore Axxle) and blocked the night he tried to use his shot.
Second scummiest: Voltgloss for the Hammer (which isn't as bad as a tell when he was hammering a townie in MYLO) and his bad logic where he tried to question Ehalycon, our most confirmed townie.

Who completes the trio in my mind? Its a tough call between Eevee and Dsell, for me. Dsell's recent "I got off the bandwagon" argument is interesting but raises a few qualms in my mind. Eevee's is a damn excellent mafia if he's scum after the massive freaking townread I had from his post, but he lurks.

I lean towards thinking Eevee is the other VT. Fortunately for me that's not the decision to be made today: I only have to vote for scum, not find the entire trio.

I won't vote yet though obviously as that would 1) Be a major scumtell, which might loosen other people's conviction I'm VT and it's also just dangerous and stupid.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1269 on: June 14, 2012, 04:11:15 am »

O, I would love to hear your qualms and try to address them tomorrow (or even when I come back).
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1270 on: June 14, 2012, 04:12:05 am »

I will need to go back and review Eevee's and Dsell's posts to see which I think is more likely scum.  I'm... not sure when I will have time to do that; maybe not until the weekend, and most likely not before Dsell leaves, unfortunately.

lol yea I think volt is scum.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1271 on: June 14, 2012, 04:14:27 am »

O, I would love to hear your qualms and try to address them tomorrow (or even when I come back).

Lets address #1/2 suspicions before we get to next weeks lynch, a bit more important really.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1272 on: June 14, 2012, 04:17:01 am »

Ok, fair enough. And i'm right there with you on suspicions, so I am hoping that at least the next two days will be somewhat straightforward.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1273 on: June 14, 2012, 04:25:37 am »

I also have a potential plan for how to handle the night roles, assuming we lynch mafia today. So I guess I would love to be alive for the end of the day. Slash I can post it tomorrow.

If you have a plan, say it now. I almost misinterpreted this to mean *your* plan for nightroles and was about to claim 90% certainty on a volt-yuma-Dsell trio. But nope, still between Eevee/Dsell, sadface.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1274 on: June 14, 2012, 04:28:13 am »

Actually, reverse that. DO NOT POST PLANS UNLESS THEY ARE 100% GUARANTEED TO WORK

I place my confidence in Ehalycon and Axxle.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1275 on: June 14, 2012, 04:29:17 am »

I will need to go back and review Eevee's and Dsell's posts to see which I think is more likely scum.  I'm... not sure when I will have time to do that; maybe not until the weekend, and most likely not before Dsell leaves, unfortunately.

lol yea I think volt is scum.

I'm sorry I've been living at the office this entire week.  Like, not going home.  Ever.  I've been here since Monday morning. 

Sorry, this really irks me.  Attacking someone for their RL commitments really, really irks me.  It's possibly because I'm not getting sleep.  It's 4 in the morning here.

Why did I argue for Dsell at the start of this day?  As an extension of my argument the previous day:  that there were too many claiming VTs for no mafia to be among them.  What was wrong with that argument?  Why is following through with that argument suddenly a scumtell?  I wasn't looking for an "easy" target, or a "hard" target - I was looking for scum using the analysis I'd been using to date.  I was being consistent. 

O, you said I questioned eHalcyon, our most confirmed town.  Are you referring to when I put him a close #2 after Axxle?  That's... not questioning him.  Or suspecting him.  Why is that a scumtell?

The fact that I hammered Morgrim was simply because I was one of those waiting to hear what he had to say!  Apparently waiting to vote because I want to hear the potential lynchee's arguments makes me more suspicious than the people who voted without waiting?  Dsell, how does that jive with your argument that Morgrim was the victim of a "hasty lynch?"

I want to hear from yuma before deciding on his scumminess.  I think the most likely scum is Dsell or Eevee, as I previously mentioned.  Quite possibly both together, with either yuma or O as third.   

In any case:  I'm not going to convince Dsell I'm Town any more than he can convince me that he's Town.  O I think is most likely Town, regardless of his suspicion.  I am curious to hear from eHalc.  If there is something in this latest colloquy that concerns you - about me, or Dsell, or even O - let's hear it.

Back to work.

I'm sorry this is rambling, I am just SO TIRED.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1276 on: June 14, 2012, 04:29:31 am »

I will post them tomorrow. It's nothing fancy, just some ideas to keep the town alive.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1277 on: June 14, 2012, 04:36:11 am »

I will need to go back and review Eevee's and Dsell's posts to see which I think is more likely scum.  I'm... not sure when I will have time to do that; maybe not until the weekend, and most likely not before Dsell leaves, unfortunately.

lol yea I think volt is scum.

I'm sorry I've been living at the office this entire week.  Like, not going home.  Ever.  I've been here since Monday morning. 

Sorry, this really irks me.  Attacking someone for their RL commitments really, really irks me.  It's possibly because I'm not getting sleep.  It's 4 in the morning here.


You misinterpreted. My two least suspicious are Eevee and Dsell, your most suspicious are eevee and Dsell, thus the comment.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1278 on: June 14, 2012, 04:42:33 am »

I will need to go back and review Eevee's and Dsell's posts to see which I think is more likely scum.  I'm... not sure when I will have time to do that; maybe not until the weekend, and most likely not before Dsell leaves, unfortunately.

lol yea I think volt is scum.

I'm sorry I've been living at the office this entire week.  Like, not going home.  Ever.  I've been here since Monday morning. 

Sorry, this really irks me.  Attacking someone for their RL commitments really, really irks me.  It's possibly because I'm not getting sleep.  It's 4 in the morning here.


You misinterpreted. My two least suspicious are Eevee and Dsell, your most suspicious are eevee and Dsell, thus the comment.

...I'm still not comprehending, but chalk that up to my sleep deprivation.  As long as you're not saying "Volt is scum because he doesn't have time to give his analysis before Dsell leaves," which is what I thought you were saying, then we're cool. 
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1279 on: June 14, 2012, 04:46:23 am »

I will need to go back and review Eevee's and Dsell's posts to see which I think is more likely scum.  I'm... not sure when I will have time to do that; maybe not until the weekend, and most likely not before Dsell leaves, unfortunately.

lol yea I think volt is scum.

I'm sorry I've been living at the office this entire week.  Like, not going home.  Ever.  I've been here since Monday morning. 

Sorry, this really irks me.  Attacking someone for their RL commitments really, really irks me.  It's possibly because I'm not getting sleep.  It's 4 in the morning here.


You misinterpreted. My two least suspicious are Eevee and Dsell, your most suspicious are eevee and Dsell, thus the comment.

...I'm still not comprehending, but chalk that up to my sleep deprivation.  As long as you're not saying "Volt is scum because he doesn't have time to give his analysis before Dsell leaves," which is what I thought you were saying, then we're cool.

Nope. Definitely not what I was saying  ;D.

On that more-pleasant note, night all. Maybe the airport will have Wifi (and maybe I'll have time to actually use it).
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1280 on: June 14, 2012, 04:49:16 am »

Second scummiest: Voltgloss for the Hammer (which isn't as bad as a tell when he was hammering a townie in MYLO) and his bad logic where he tried to question Ehalycon, our most confirmed townie.

Which post was this?  I don't remember it now (lots has happened), and it was probably before claims were made.

And when are you leaving, O?  That last post sounds like it's soon, but another post implied it would be next week?

In any case:  I'm not going to convince Dsell I'm Town any more than he can convince me that he's Town.  O I think is most likely Town, regardless of his suspicion.  I am curious to hear from eHalc.  If there is something in this latest colloquy that concerns you - about me, or Dsell, or even O - let's hear it.

I say again that I am not posting any analysis until yuma comments.  I have some thoughts written up and saved, and some other bits and pieces I haven't copied down since it may change after yuma responds.




As for Dsell's night plans, I say again that I'd prefer to hear them right away after yuma comments, and if Axxle agrees.  Doesn't mean we're going to follow those plans, of course, but I'd like to hear them.  Just not yet.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1281 on: June 14, 2012, 06:23:33 am »


Random points:

eHalcyon and Axxle are basicly equally certainly what they claim they are (yes, technically eHalcyon is more certain but they are both town or we lose, period). They both seem very smart players, I have no trouble placing my trust on them (regarding good night decisions).

O was suspicious of me earlier and seems less so now. Makes me (even more confident) he is actually town, members of mafia have very little reason to side with me (especially so given O seems to be the only one "believing in me") given how good of a lynch target I would make. Dsell and Volt didnt share O's reaction to my long post earlier, yuma hasnt responded yet. Dont really know what Axxle or eHalc think given they are (smartly so) waiting for yuma to post first.

Holding Volt's real life commitments against him doesnt feel fair. Still, a grumpy "i'm busy" doesnt help his case much either.

yuma has been absent, wouldnt read anything into that (= still not buying his claim without very concincing explanations). Pretty eager to hear his reasons.

@Dsell
Well.. townies just dont know. I mean, even though I have a bad voting record, I dont think my decisions have been particularly stupid. Like, lots of other people thought the guys I voted for were suspicious too, some of the now dead VT's played pretty damn terrible in this game, one could even say they got themselves lynched with their erratic behaviour. Saying "you have to have known he was xxx!" is actually kind of mafia-ish, given they actually do know whats what.

I'm working under the assumption that good town strategy atm is just to do anything you can to keep yourself alive (it's game over if that fails). That's why I made the long analysis post earlier, sorry if that was premature. Is this a flawed line of thinking?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1282 on: June 14, 2012, 09:26:23 am »

Sorry to keep everyone waiting. I haven't read some of the later posts since I wanted to get this out there as quick as possible.

Like I said, I am one-shot vigilante. The first two nights I did not use my power. The first night may have been the best night, but I decided to not use it since I wasn't completely sure about jotheonah. I didn't get back until after we had enough votes to lynch but during twilight. I saw no reason to expose jot then and put myself at risk, but wanted to see if he was actually the one-shot--there was the possibility of there being 2 in my mind--and encouraged him to use his kill.

Day came around and Axxle quickly revealed jot as SK or mafia so I didn't reveal then either. That night I saw no clear target and again didn't use my power.

Day 3 there was no reason to reveal. Night 3--I honestly thought we were dead and that it would take a miracle for us to pull out of it. My logic was that I didn't want to end the game without using my power. If we were dead, then using my power didn't matter; If we were alive then using my power had the possibility of giving the us a huge advantage of going into the next day. There was also the possibility of it killing us if somehow the Mafia didn't get their kill, but instead I killed a townie instead. But I felt like my odds were pretty good.

This was how I saw it. Last night I strongly believed O and Axxle and myself to be town. That is 3 of 7. Of the remaining 4 (eHal, Volt, Eevee and Dsell), 3 were Mafia. So I had a 3/4 chance of killing Mafia. Looking back over the previous days I felt Eevee and Dsell were the most likely to be Mafia. I picked Eevee over Dsell primarily because of Eevee's voting record although it really was a toss up between he and Dsell.

I don't know if that is convincing but that was my logic throughout. I knew I was taking a risk (1/4, and that doesn't include the odds of the Mafia NK failing) but at that time it looked like we had a pretty slim opportunity to survive the night anyways so I figured that if luck was already in our favor I might as well take advantage of it.

Anything else that is needed to know?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1283 on: June 14, 2012, 10:28:54 am »

So... I see like 6/6 townreads on me. I get the strong, strong impressive that mafia is trying to ally me against whoever the 4th townie is.

I mean seriously, as VT I'm not quite sure what the hell their gameplan is. They've now essentially left it to 3x confirmed townies for tonight, which doesn't seem very good for them.

@Ehalycon, I'll be leaving for the airport in less then 30 minutes, probably because you become online. I'll have sporadic internet access, but still probably internet access throughout the next week.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1284 on: June 14, 2012, 11:36:41 am »

Now interested in independent suspicions and analyses from everyone except Axxle. He and I can post after. On phone right now, but I will probably post my reason for jailing yuma when I get to a desktop.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1285 on: June 14, 2012, 11:40:07 am »

One major questions is, knowing that we have jailkeeper and we should have had a cop, as well as SK and three Mafia, is it plausible for us to have a one-shot vig? What roles are the mafia likely to have, if any?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1286 on: June 14, 2012, 01:10:45 pm »

Axxle, can you reveal your investigation results now?


I realized that my nighttime plan may give too much away to the mafia and may have not fully accounted for all aspects of the jailkeeper, so let me just say that I think eHal should continue to try to block rather than protect, and that I think our best lynching option (to make best use of nighttime actions) is Volt.

On that note, Volt, your composition-of-the-town argument was always ridiculous and is even more ridiculous now that we know Axxle was originally a normal cop.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1287 on: June 14, 2012, 01:33:19 pm »

I dont see any reason for Axxle to hold back anymore either. Also, how are we going to go about deciding who to lynch? I would personally give eHalcyon and Axxle ~all the power given they are the only ones we know are town.

Actually.. what if we just let them decide? Promise to answer all the questions they feel like asking and promise to vote for whoever they decide in the end?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1288 on: June 14, 2012, 01:37:44 pm »

I dont see any reason for Axxle to hold back anymore either. Also, how are we going to go about deciding who to lynch? I would personally give eHalcyon and Axxle ~all the power given they are the only ones we know are town.

Actually.. what if we just let them decide? Promise to answer all the questions they feel like asking and promise to vote for whoever they decide in the end?

I don't know about that, but I think it is better than following Dsell's plan. Dsell seems to be attempting to direct traffic in a certain direction--one that will benefit him. What do Axxle and eHal have to say? Do they think they have enough info to guarantee lynching a Mafia?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1289 on: June 14, 2012, 01:44:21 pm »

I want to hear Dsell's full case against Volt. I realize you might not have time to write it up though.

Same for everyone. Analyze away so Axxle and I can analyze your analyses. Dawg.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1290 on: June 14, 2012, 01:44:58 pm »

Not trying to direct traffic. I'm fine with giving them the power but my suggestion of volt was so that Axxle has the best chance of success tonight by confirming someone as town or mafia (Yuma). It really does depend on who he's investigated already, though.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1291 on: June 14, 2012, 01:46:17 pm »

Not trying to direct traffic. I'm fine with giving them the power but my suggestion of volt was so that Axxle has the best chance of success tonight by confirming someone as town or mafia (Yuma). It really does depend on who he's investigated already, though.

Why Volt and not Eevee?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1292 on: June 14, 2012, 01:51:55 pm »

eHal, I will try to do more later but I'm on my iPod currently so no huge posts. Basically, though, it's been process of elimination. I believe O to be town which would necessitate that eevee, Yuma, and volt are mafia. They are also seeming scummy and chummy to me. I say we should vote volt because of the reason above: Axxle can get a confirmation on Yuma. And I doubt eevee will get lynched today, he has some favor.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1293 on: June 14, 2012, 01:54:12 pm »

Yeah, I know you may not be able to post anything major.  Won't hold that against you.

Eevee has favour from who now?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1294 on: June 14, 2012, 01:56:30 pm »

If Axxle has investigated one of eevee or volt, we should lynch the other, I think. Still a chance someone lied and is a mafia power role. Better to keep the guaranteed vanilla around and take a chance at hitting a mafia power role. I would say lynching Yuma gives us the best chance at that, but there is a minuscule possibility that he's telling the truth and we can investigate him tonight anyway.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1295 on: June 14, 2012, 01:57:24 pm »

Eevee has some favor with O at least. Certainly not with me.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1296 on: June 14, 2012, 02:58:27 pm »

Ok, on the compy for a bit.

My case against Volt (and Eevee and yuma) is based largely on process of elimination. I have to admit that up front. O is either town or an insanely crazy mafia who would risk dying night one when there was no real threat against him. I have to assume town because that is just too crazy for a mafia to give themselves a 50% chance of getting killed. So right now I'm thinking 80% chance of town, 20% chance of mafia. In practice, he may as well be town, but I have to leave that door open since he can't be confirmed the same way Axxle and eHal have been.

So if O is town, and because I KNOW I'm town, it has to be those three. No other options. So until I see otherwise I'm fully in support of getting rid of those three (note that if I'm mafia I'm completely throwing two partners under the bus...not a bad strategy maybe but the only preference I have for getting rid of one over another is completely strategic).

Ok, but process of elimination is not good enough for you other townies because you can't know for sure at this point that I'm town. Well, those three have been acting pretty scummy too. In addition to their bad records of lynching town (we all have pretty bad records right now though), they have tended to throw each other under the bus while still throwing the most blame on me. I described how Volt has done that in my post from last night. Eevee's done it too.

@Dsell
Well.. townies just dont know. I mean, even though I have a bad voting record, I dont think my decisions have been particularly stupid. Like, lots of other people thought the guys I voted for were suspicious too, some of the now dead VT's played pretty damn terrible in this game, one could even say they got themselves lynched with their erratic behaviour. Saying "you have to have known he was xxx!" is actually kind of mafia-ish, given they actually do know whats what.

I never said people should have known he was town. I was far from sure of that myself. However, I think his history of being crazy should have given people pause. We used just a couple days and really only closely examined one person day 3, even though we were in mylo. This is why I also don't buy it when Volt says that he hammered because he waited for Morgrim's response.

Yuma is an interesting case, because of his claim and because he claimed to have used it on Eevee. Like I've said, there is a minuscule chance he's telling the truth, and since we can investigate him to find out for sure, he is the only of the three that I think we should not lynch today.

But yuma has real holes in his story too. As O has pointed out, if we believe yuma we are forced to believe that the mafia targeted him and that he used up his one shot on the night he was jailed. Let's go back to that first point. Why would the mafia try to kill yuma? Makes no sense. Axxle was a practically-confirmed power role townie. Obvious choice. Well maybe the mafia thought he would be protected somehow (even though there was no evidence of a protective role until today!), so who were they next most likely to kill? How about O, who most people had cleared as town? No one seriously doubted O's VT claim day 3, largely because he'd already risked getting himself NK'd night 1. Easy choice for mafia to kill, so why isn't O dead? They don't want practically-confirmed townies around, they want suspicious players around. So why on earth would the mafia target yuma instead of O?

I may think of more throughout the day, but this is some basic support for the idea of a Volt-Eevee-yuma mafia trio.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1297 on: June 14, 2012, 04:39:38 pm »

*cough cough* Axxle? *cough*
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1298 on: June 14, 2012, 04:49:34 pm »

Sorry, I don't know what to think.  I'm extremely wary of yuma right now, but because so many people are already expressing concern are mafia trying to lead us there? Is it WIFOM?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1299 on: June 14, 2012, 04:50:32 pm »

mafia would try to kill the least likely person to be protected or jailed.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1300 on: June 14, 2012, 04:50:46 pm »

*would have tried to kill
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1301 on: June 14, 2012, 04:52:32 pm »

Are you able to reveal who you investigated? I think it can do no harm but could do some good. Is there some way that it hurts the town that I'm not seeing?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1302 on: June 14, 2012, 04:53:26 pm »

My PM in full, explaining why I chose yuma:

Quote
Insomniac, what are you doing to us? o.O  Or maybe it's just me.  I was one of the main drivers of both bad lynch wagons. :(

I think the first post and title need updating (michaeljb and morgrim need to be removed from the Alive list).

So I want to put this reasoning somewhere...

I trust Axxle's rolecop claim.  I trust O as the last VT (or else his twilight 1 gambit was amazing).  I suspect Voltgloss is a doctor because of post #1062, where he implies that he knows there is a doctor but doesn't know if there is a roleblocker.

That would leave Dsell, yuma and Eevee as the Mafia.

I can't jail Axxle because we need his intel.  If Voltgloss is doctor I don't want to jail him because we need his power too.

That means I either jail O, thinking he will be the target or an amazing Mafia, or I jail one of the three hoping to pick the one who will perform the kill.

If Voltgloss is doctor and I correctly picked up on his tell, it is probable that one of the mafia also picked up on it, making Voltgloss a prime target.  Therefore I should not try to protect O but should try to jail a mafia member... which could still include O.

Looking at day 1 activity, the Dsell-yuma-Eevee looks far more likely than anything involving O.

The mafia will probably try to choose the one of them least likely to be roleblocked.  I've already outlined heavy suspicion of Dsell for various reasons, but he has the advantage of NOT being on the wagon for Morgrim.  That does put him in a decent light.  Still, Voltgloss also voiced suspicion of Dsell...

Ugh.  No idea.  I jail yuma.

===========================================

Basically I figured that the doctor (and yes, I suspected Volt) would continue to protect Axxle.  If not, it would be to try to protect someone else and hope that the Mafia would assume Axxle was protected.  Whatever he does, I can't do much about it.  It mattered even less if we had no doctor all.  I had to jail a Mafia member, and it was pretty much random between Dsell, yuma and Eevee.

Now that Voltgloss is claimed VT he is added back into the mix.  I'm still not entirely sure about O.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1303 on: June 14, 2012, 04:54:24 pm »

Are you able to reveal who you investigated? I think it can do no harm but could do some good. Is there some way that it hurts the town that I'm not seeing?

It may clear someone.  It's more interesting to see your suspicions without knowing who is clear.  There's certainly WIFOM as Mafia "suspect" each other, but it's still interesting.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1304 on: June 14, 2012, 04:57:31 pm »

I would reveal it if it in any way could help the town.  Stop pushing.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1305 on: June 14, 2012, 04:58:35 pm »

Are you able to reveal who you investigated? I think it can do no harm but could do some good. Is there some way that it hurts the town that I'm not seeing?

It may clear someone.  It's more interesting to see your suspicions without knowing who is clear.  There's certainly WIFOM as Mafia "suspect" each other, but it's still interesting.

I feel like most people have voiced their suspicions basically. The only person it looks like it could definitively clear would be yuma, and based on Axxle's recent posts he obviously is unsure about him.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1306 on: June 14, 2012, 05:00:31 pm »

I think that if yuma is already a mafia role, claiming a town role that can't be verified immediately is a very very safe bet.  If I investigated him saying vanilla wouldn't help, and if we only have a jailer as a protection role I can't verify it without getting myself killed.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1307 on: June 14, 2012, 05:01:57 pm »

But if we lynch mafia today then there is a pretty good chance that eHalcyon can jail the killer.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1308 on: June 14, 2012, 05:05:27 pm »

I don't like how yuma didn't really scumhunt or ask people's opinions about scum during Mylo.  That was a very dangerous thing to do as a vigilante, we could very well have lost if not for protection.  I'm very willing to vote for yuma today.

@Dsell, that's true.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1309 on: June 14, 2012, 05:07:22 pm »

I think that if yuma is already a mafia role, claiming a town role that can't be verified immediately is a very very safe bet.  If I investigated him saying vanilla wouldn't help, and if we only have a jailer as a protection role I can't verify it without getting myself killed.

I may have posted this already (or I might have written it in an analysis that I haven't yet posted) but it's almost guaranteed that the target for tonight, should we make it through the lynch, will be either you or me.  I'm the most vulnerable -- if they target you there's still the chance I'll jail you and deny them the night kill.  If they target one of the remaining VTs, there's a chance I'll have jailed that VT.  On the other hand, if they don't target you, you'll have one more night of investigation.

I don't think anyone has answered my big question yet though -- knowing we should have had a full cop plus jailkeeper vs 3 mafia and a SK, is it reasonable that we'd have a 1-shot Vig?  And can we expect the mafia to have any roles?

If the mafia don't have roles, rolecop won't give us anything beyond investigating yuma (which is, btw, a convenient reason for not lynching yuma).
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1310 on: June 14, 2012, 05:09:14 pm »

It's not full cop plus jailkeeper vs 3 mafia and a SK, it's full cop plus jailkeeper vs 3 mafia vs a SK

I think it would make it too unbalanced for the SK.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1311 on: June 14, 2012, 05:09:48 pm »

vote: yuma
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1312 on: June 14, 2012, 05:11:46 pm »

Again, sorry if I am repeating myself (or if I end up repeating myself in the future) -- the scumhunting issue is tough.  I feel like the only ones who really scumhunted were Axxle, O and myself (note: the latter two have been pretty terrible scumhunters, sorry Morgrim and Galz).  Dsell's been vocal but not assertive or confrontational.  Eevee and yuma have been extremely quiet, I think.  I'm having trouble remembering what Volt has done.

Scratch -- the only time I remember Dsell go scum-hunting was against Robz on day 1.

PPE: a little hasty, Axxle?  Before you do that you could let me post my analysis, if we're not going to wait for anything else.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1313 on: June 14, 2012, 05:12:52 pm »

It's not full cop plus jailkeeper vs 3 mafia and a SK, it's full cop plus jailkeeper vs 3 mafia vs a SK

I think it would make it too unbalanced for the SK.

Well, jo probably could have survived a lot longer if you had been a Cop instead.  He would have gotten a pass on day 2 and the Mafia probably would have skipped him thinking he no longer had power.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1314 on: June 14, 2012, 05:14:06 pm »

The problem with lynching yuma today (I am totally ok with it though) is that if Volt and Eevee (and I'll even throw O in this boat) are vanilla like they claim, Axxle's rolecop power becomes useless. And since they didn't know who Axxle investigated, they had every reason to claim VT if they are vanilla mafia. It's possible they lied but no real reason to. Yuma is the exception because he did claim a role, so maybe he's the mafia power role? He still could have been caught in a lie, though, so who knows.

Basically, if yuma is the Mafia PR and everyone else is vanilla as they claim, rolecop doesn't do anything for us anymore.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1315 on: June 14, 2012, 05:14:44 pm »

Before we started claiming, yuma and Eevee were suspicious to me as the two players getting the least attention.  Axxle has been at the center since his claim and O has been very vocal.  Dsell has also been vocal, though I don't recall him ever showing any sort of conviction.

As an aside, I don't mean the "I'm certain" conviction that got Galz lynched.  I just mean that I don't think Dsell has appeared to be scum hunting.  Rather, it seems more like he's been playing it safe and trying to survive.  yuma and Eevee too, especially because they've been quite quiet.

But yes.  As I've brought up, yuma and Eevee were very suspicious.  Assuming that there was a townie among Dsell, Voltgloss and O, yuma and Eevee were obviously safe lynches and we could sort out the rest later.

If yuma is not lying, our possible scenarios are:

1. Mafia did not attempt a kill.  Extremely unlikely.
2. Mafia targeted yuma.  Possible.

If yuma is lying, that means yuma was the one performing the kill and we have no idea who the target actually was last night.

Note that yuma claimed Eevee as target without knowing who I jailed.  This actually lends some credence to yuma's claim.  Say yuma was actually Mafia targeting O, but yuma claims he targeted Eevee.  If I then revealed that I had jailed O, yuma is in trouble.  Yeah there are some ways around it ("maybe there is a Mafia roleblocker!") but it would stink of desperation.

Now consider that yuma would have to make a claim eventually.  As a townie, no reason to lie.  As mafia, it's dangerous because there was the chance I could catch the lie.

My likely scenarios are thus:

1. Vig yuma targeted Eevee who is probably Mafia, but not guaranteed.
2. Mafia yuma targeted VT Eevee.
3. Mafia yuma targeted SOMEONE but lies that he targeted Eevee, also Mafia. 

Scenario 3 is very possible.  The gambit is that, if yuma was jailed, we don't catch the lie.  If SOMEONE was jailed, yuma is caught and gets lynched... and then Eevee might be cleared.  Remember that, before claims began, yuma and Eevee were both *obvious* lynches.  Now, not so obvious.  So as far as gambits go, this is a good one for two Mafia under pressure.

This is not factoring in Axxle’s investigation.  yuma claimed a role, so if he was just plain Mafia that would be a lie that Axxle could catch.  Honest townie play?  Bold mafia move, with potential to confuse the issue over Eevee?  Hard to say.

I’m also surprised that neither yuma nor Eevee claimed Doctor.  As Mafia, VT is definitely the safest claim now.  If yuma were mafia, was it better to claim Vig over Doctor?  The only reason I can think of is fear that Eevee would counterclaim and that Axxle could verify.  If Eevee is Mafia, claiming anything other than VT is dangerous.  Maybe if Eevee had a Mafia role and would be caught by an investigation either way.  If Eevee is Mafia, I think he would be a non-role Mafia.  If yuma is Mafia, I think he is more likely one with a role.

We now know that the setup had Cop, Jailkeeper, Serial Killer, three mafia, 6 VT, and either a seventh VT or a 1-shot Vig.  In this setup, does the town warrant a 1-shot Vig?

I doubt there is a Mafia roleblocker, or else Axxle should have been blocked and would have received no result yesterday and today.  What about other Mafia roles?

Mafia rolecop?  There is only Cop and JK, and there is a SK.  I don't think the scum needs more firepower.  If they had it, it might justify a vigilante... but probably more than a 1-shot.  Gah... I wish we'd known this earlier.  Could have thought things through clearly, now I'm not sure what old assumptions I've made no longer hold.

Maybe yuma is telling the truth (is town) and there really is a Godfather with... 1-shot bulletproof? Full bullet-proof?  Would that be balanced?  Maaaaan.  We probably shouldn't have killed jo, SK or not.

My top FOUR candidates at this point are yuma, Eevee, Dsell and Volt.  I trust Volt the most out of these four, but maybe that's bias because I'd thought he was doctor.  And if he's Mafia, would he have claimed doctor based on my own suspicions, or been turned against it because of townie-Dsell's suspicion against it? 

Based on the above considerations, I think the best target is either yuma or Dsell.  But it's so tricky.  I am interested in Axxle’s and O’s thoughts and much less so the others because they are far more suspicious.  I am not counting out O as Mafia but at this point I think we have to have faith in him.

This was written before yuma's explanation for targetting Eevee.  I don't think it changes much.  From a vig perspective I think the math is poor (would be safer not to attack anyone at all) but it's still plausible.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1316 on: June 14, 2012, 05:15:36 pm »

Oh, eHalc basically already wrote what I did.

@eHalc, I don't see why we wouldn't have a one-shot vig, but believing yuma's claim requires you to believe a lot crazier things than just his claim. See my last substantial post.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1317 on: June 14, 2012, 05:16:41 pm »

unvote  I was a little interested in if anyone would pile onto the vote quickly.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1318 on: June 14, 2012, 05:18:01 pm »

The problem with lynching yuma today (I am totally ok with it though) is that if Volt and Eevee (and I'll even throw O in this boat) are vanilla like they claim, Axxle's rolecop power becomes useless. And since they didn't know who Axxle investigated, they had every reason to claim VT if they are vanilla mafia. It's possible they lied but no real reason to. Yuma is the exception because he did claim a role, so maybe he's the mafia power role? He still could have been caught in a lie, though, so who knows.

Basically, if yuma is the Mafia PR and everyone else is vanilla as they claim, rolecop doesn't do anything for us anymore.

If yuma is a mafia PR (there might be more than one, who knows), it's better to lynch now than later.  But that's a big if...
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1319 on: June 14, 2012, 05:21:40 pm »

if yuma is a rolecop, he would have received a "No result" yesterday after being jailed.  Similar to Mafia I where Ozle got jailed he could freely lie about who he targeted.  That makes Scenario 3 plausible.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1320 on: June 14, 2012, 05:24:41 pm »

Pops approved this setup, and he HATES cops.  He probably would have wanted the mafia to have some weapons like a rolecop.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1321 on: June 14, 2012, 05:26:31 pm »

if yuma is a rolecop, he would have received a "No result" yesterday after being jailed.  Similar to Mafia I where Ozle got jailed he could freely lie about who he targeted.  That makes Scenario 3 plausible.

If he is any power role, really. Which I think is most likely between the three of them. But unfortunately I also think there's a chance he's could, maaaybe, possibly be telling the truth. A minute chance, but a chance.

eHalc, why do you trust Volt? What has he done to gain your trust? Not to mention all the things he's done to lose trust (Day 1 he was my #1 most-likely-town player).
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1322 on: June 14, 2012, 05:27:41 pm »

if yuma is a rolecop, he would have received a "No result" yesterday after being jailed.  Similar to Mafia I where Ozle got jailed he could freely lie about who he targeted.  That makes Scenario 3 plausible.

If he is any power role, really. Which I think is most likely between the three of them. But unfortunately I also think there's a chance he's could, maaaybe, possibly be telling the truth. A minute chance, but a chance.

eHalc, why do you trust Volt? What has he done to gain your trust? Not to mention all the things he's done to lose trust (Day 1 he was my #1 most-likely-town player).
No, there are some power roles that don't return results, like roleblocker.  He'd never know he was blocked.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1323 on: June 14, 2012, 05:28:10 pm »

if yuma is a rolecop, he would have received a "No result" yesterday after being jailed.  Similar to Mafia I where Ozle got jailed he could freely lie about who he targeted.  That makes Scenario 3 plausible.

Good observation...

OK, I'm going to go over the last few pages and see who suspects who.  I know at least Eevee has posted a large post about it.

PPE: like I said, it was just a gut feeling and I'm probably being influenced because of that incorrect doctor tell.  Please do post reasons (with post numbers!) for your suspicions.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1324 on: June 14, 2012, 05:30:09 pm »

One other thing -- someone should go over Day 2 when we lynched jo.  He pushed that wagon immediately?  We didn't think it through as a town, but we really should have let jo go and spent some time trying to find Mafia.  Even as SK his best move at that point was to kill Mafia, and Mafia would have wanted to get rid of him sooner than later.  I'm afraid I got sucked into voting for him, but that's still something we should look into.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1325 on: June 14, 2012, 05:35:23 pm »

One other thing -- someone should go over Day 2 when we lynched jo.  He pushed that wagon immediately?  We didn't think it through as a town, but we really should have let jo go and spent some time trying to find Mafia.  Even as SK his best move at that point was to kill Mafia, and Mafia would have wanted to get rid of him sooner than later.  I'm afraid I got sucked into voting for him, but that's still something we should look into.
Yeah.  That wasn't our finest moment.  I had suspected he was SK but I wasn't sure, I was willing to take the chance that he was a Goon instead.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1326 on: June 14, 2012, 05:45:49 pm »

*Who pushed that wagon, is what I meant to ask.

And was it actually likely that he was a Goon?  I didn't see it, really.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1327 on: June 14, 2012, 05:51:57 pm »

I really can't figure out the mafia's kills. Robz and michaeljb? They must have really been searching for roles because I don't see any strong motivation for any of us to kill any of them. Only thing is the Robz question which has already been discussed day 2. Was it to take heat off of Eevee (or me)?

Like I've said, it doesn't make sense for me to NK Robz if I'm mafia. I would probably have tried again to lead a lynch against him day 2! This obviously doesn't factor in Axxle's reveal of jo, though.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1328 on: June 14, 2012, 06:08:44 pm »


Vote Count 4-1

Not voting (7) - O, Axxle, Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss, eHalcyon, yuma

Deadline June 20, 2012, 11:59 PDT
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1329 on: June 14, 2012, 06:14:04 pm »

any time you want to jump in, volt..

Man, not to start pointing fingers at O again, but I don't understand what this post is about.  I looked back a couple of pages and haven't seen anything to make sense of this, some previous conversation or what not.

This was during the role claiming done on day 3.  Earlier, O and Dsell were discussing mass roleclaim.  Then Volt infamously asks about what a doctor should do... then O claimed VT, immediately followed by Dsell claiming VT.  Then Morgrim immediately claimed and denounced O.  O calls out Morgrim for his really weird play, and then O says volt can jump in... and I don't see the context for that last bit.

And then Volt has a big post about why mass roleclaim is bad.

So... can someone explain to me what happened there?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1330 on: June 14, 2012, 06:14:51 pm »

Also, I'm doing really poorly at keeping my tenses straight.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1331 on: June 14, 2012, 06:25:39 pm »

And then Volt has a big post about why mass roleclaim is bad.

Because mass roleclaim IS bad for the mafia, especially when there's a rolecop around.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1332 on: June 14, 2012, 06:43:23 pm »

And then Volt has a big post about why mass roleclaim is bad.

Because mass roleclaim IS bad for the mafia, especially when there's a rolecop around.

I'm more asking what O meant by saying Volt should jump in.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1333 on: June 14, 2012, 06:46:40 pm »

From iPad / airport: 

I probably saw volt Lurking when I told him to jump in.


And Guys you all suck. When j investigated vanilla he could have been vanilla mafia as well.

O-1 everyone else-0
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1334 on: June 14, 2012, 06:47:30 pm »

From iPad / airport: 

I probably saw volt Lurking when I told him to jump in.


And Guys you all suck. When j investigated vanilla he could have been vanilla mafia as well.

O-1 everyone else-0

This is why I wagonrd hiM, if that wasn't clear.

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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1335 on: June 14, 2012, 06:56:22 pm »

From iPad / airport: 

I probably saw volt Lurking when I told him to jump in.


And Guys you all suck. When j investigated vanilla he could have been vanilla mafia as well.

O-1 everyone else-0
I mentioned this a few posts up.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1336 on: June 14, 2012, 06:58:14 pm »

....I'm really a pc laptop person.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1337 on: June 14, 2012, 07:02:03 pm »

Dsell:
1134 -- suspects Eevee, yuma and Volt for Morgrim bandwagon, among other things.
* says Eevee NK'd Robz for suspicion, but note that Robz suspected Dsell just as much, and Dsell had a huge case against Robz at the start too.
* reason for yuma is weak (that he was on the wagon on day 1 and 2).
* says Volt has been generally scummy... I haven't seen it much either way.  Says Volt's hammer on Morgrim is scummy.
1145 -- Suggestion that Axxle gives no info is pro-town, although it mostly echoes my first post of the day.
1146 -- Points to Volt.
1208 -- asks if I jailed Eevee, not if I jailed yuma... I feel this is significant but not sure how.  Or maybe it's not at all. :P
1267 -- some personal defense
1296 -- case against Volt, somewhat yuma

Eevee:
1218 -- AFTER everyone else has claimed, talks about everyone remaining.  Heaviest suspicion on Dsell.  Also lists Volt and yuma.
1281 -- mostly defense (of himself and O, and sort of Volt and yuma).

O:
1268 -- Finds yuma scummiest, then Volt

Voltgloss:
1131 -- Suspects Dsell, based on VT claim (believes O's VT claim).
1199 -- Convinced that Dsell is lying, claims VT as well.
1275 -- defends against O and Dsell.  Says Dsell or Eevee most likely scum, yuma or O as third.

yuma:
1175 -- Some suspicion of of Dsell, Eevee
1282 -- Reason for targeting Eevee (says it was toss-up between Dsell and Eevee)



So the suspicions leveled are...

Dsell: Eevee, yuma, Volt
Eevee: Dsell, yuma, volt
O: yuma, Volt
Volt: Dsell, Eevee, yuma, O
yuma: Dsell, Eevee


Looks like O gives Eevee a pass and yuma gives Volt a pass?  And Volt actually mentions O as a suspect, hm.  Did I miss anything?

Gonna try to consider how they all interacted earlier in the game.  While it's clear that scum will "suspect" scum now, I find it slightly less likely in the early game.  Not impossible, but less likely.

And sorry O, I'm still considering you.  You're more townie to me than the other three, but I think you're still machiavellian enough to be the Mafia kingpin.  It's a compliment. ;)
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1338 on: June 14, 2012, 07:51:30 pm »

I am not going to try and quote from everything posted in the last few hours... I am amazed people have so much time to post as much as they are... but I will try to address a couple of things.

It appears I am the most suspicious to everyone else. I can't blame them. I don't necessarily regret my attempted one-shot of Eevee, if we had survived and I had killed Eevee (assuming he is mafia) I would be a hero right now because we would be up 4 town to 2 mafia. But it was risky and that is suspicious. Chalk it up to more dumb townie moves like we have seen thus far in this game (Morgrim and Galzria both made pretty crazy moves and if I get lynched I'll join their club).

I do need to address one thing though. It appears that the Mafia have been targeting less suspicious but not overly unsuspicious people. Michaeljb and (was it Cfrisk or Robz that we decided was the mafia kill, I can't remember) were all in the mildly suspicious camp. I think I did fit into that role of only slightly suspicious last night. I am obviously much more suspicious now than I was last night.

Someone noted that I didn't do much fishing--that isn't the right word but it was something like that--for Mafia during our Morgrim lynch and was surprised that I attempted to my night kill without it. That is a valid question. My answer to it is that during the day I wasn't planning on using my power. I thought Morgrim was Mafia and wouldn't need to use it that night. It was only after I saw that Morgrim was VT and after a little more thought--realizing that I didn't want the game to end without using my power--did I decide to use it. Again I liked my odds assuming we survived the night. I am still a little dumbfounded that we did.

My three mafia: Dsell, Eevee and either Volt or O. 55% Volt, 45% O.

Anything else that people want to know? I may or may not be on tonight. I am not sure what I have planned for tonight. Need to check with the wife.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1339 on: June 14, 2012, 07:56:32 pm »

This is mostly about the interactions between the 5 remaining players, minus myself and Axxle, with a bit of "this was kind of suspicious" thrown in.  And it's also pretty much all Day 1 stuff, because I haven't gotten around to indexing days 2 and 3.  Day 1 took way too long. :P

General thoughts will be in a follow-up post.

Dsell
522: post about everyone.  Strong town read on Volt, slight favour for Eevee.  Otherwise neutral on pretty much everyone else except for Robz.  Interestingly, Dsell is very much against Robz, and in the very next post Volt heavily suspects Robz as well.
546: still find this really weird to say that it's no big deal if 4 townies get killed.
603: calls out O for not saying anything substantial.
626: introduces argument against Eevee for being a pro poker player.  Wishy-washy.
688: hedging talk, says he could be persuaded to vote Eevee but doesn't actually suspect him.

Post 843 is kind of interesting.  Dsell notes that Robz had said there was a lot of information.  Later, Robz died.  Maybe Dsell/Mafia feared that Robz really did see something, and would be able to build a strong case?

Eevee

214: praises Voltgloss -- "by the way, voltgloss seems to be an awesome guy to have around, really good and insightful posts."
246: after Robz randomly asks Eevee if he's mafia... Eevee doesn't actually deny it.
365: big post on most people; says O is suspicious for weird play (maybe not Mafia, probably not town PR).  Says Voltgloss and Dsell seem very town-like:

I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).

458: Eevee votes for Robz, quoting an argument from Dsell that Robz' play seems to match his play in MII.  Oh, and he calls O a "terrible player". :P

O
459: Vindictively votes for Eevee because of an insult.
578: Questions Voltgloss' strange experiment/analysis.
618: Lists his thoughts on each player.  He names several players who he'd like to have on the town side -- CFrisk, Robz, michaeljb, Morgrim.  Morgrim was lynched, the rest were NK'd.  Also names Dsell and Galz as people who "are close to actively harmful if they were town".
672: Tells jo to switch his vote to Eevee in order to survive (672).
690: Calls out Eevee and Voltgloss who appear to be online but are not saying anything.

Voltgloss
197: Cautions against early voting, therefore suspects early voters, which includes Eevee.
523: Strong case against Robz which follows immediately after Dsell's big post that also points FOS at Robz.  Votes for Robz.
569: Switches vote from Robz to jotheonah, apparently on the basis of an experiment.  Also see post 575.  IMO, this "experiment" thing was rather weird and unconvincing.  Also interesting to note that Volt says he strongly suspected both jo and Robz, while O said he suspected neither (599).
600: This post references both Dsell and Eevee, with respect to the arguments against Robz:

I should add that, when I ask for a rebuttal from Robz to the points I raised, I do recall he gave a rebuttal to a couple of points.  (Not all of them.)  Specifically, citing the "weaseling out" that Dsell is supposed to have done (does anyone else agree with Robz that those posts of Dsell's are as suspicious as he sees them?) and apologizing for putting his own words in Eevee's mouth. 

I can't tell if he's saying that Dsell is suspicious, or that he's saying Robz is paranoid and Dsell isn't suspicious.

698: expresses concern over the burgeoning Eevee wagon, likening it to the Robz-led Morgrim wagon in MII.

yuma

Uhh... nothing.  I found nothing of significance between yuma and any of the others.  Granted, he's been pretty quiet all through this game.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1340 on: June 14, 2012, 08:01:41 pm »

546: still find this really weird to say that it's no big deal if 4 townies get killed.

You've dinged me on this twice now. How does "worst-case scenario" translate into no big deal? I was telling Galzria to chill out but that is not the same as me being cool with that situation. It is a big deal, it was what I thought was the worst thing that could happen at the time (wasn't taking into account SK). Also one of those dying townies was me, so no, it wasn't a "no big deal" thing.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1341 on: June 14, 2012, 08:11:34 pm »

546: still find this really weird to say that it's no big deal if 4 townies get killed.

You've dinged me on this twice now. How does "worst-case scenario" translate into no big deal? I was telling Galzria to chill out but that is not the same as me being cool with that situation. It is a big deal, it was what I thought was the worst thing that could happen at the time (wasn't taking into account SK). Also one of those dying townies was me, so no, it wasn't a "no big deal" thing.

Haha, fine.  :P

But that's not even the most incriminating stuff.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1342 on: June 14, 2012, 08:14:57 pm »

Axxle joined by yuma, O, DSell, eHalcyon and Eevee lyched J. 

I was hoping for more information from this.  Mafia would have no qualms about lynching SK and would be more likely on the wagon to appear town.  But that is all of us (minus Volt) on that wagon.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1343 on: June 14, 2012, 08:21:05 pm »

Should look over day 2 interaction between those townies.  Day 1 is pretty incriminating though.  Post incoming.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1344 on: June 14, 2012, 08:22:37 pm »

Based on the above assessments, Dsell, Eevee and Volt look far too close to each other.

Eevee praises Volt early on and later specifies strong town reads on both Volt and Dsell.  Dsell is all over Robz, and Volt jumps on board as well.  The wagon looks like it might be successful, but it stalls.  As the momentum builds against jo, Volt switches his vote.  When the votes begin to pile on Eevee, Volt urges caution against such a bandwagon.  Why not the same caution when it came to Robz?

So it looks like Eevee is taking a very friendly stance to the other two, Volt closer to neutral but still steps in when it looks like Eevee is in danger.  Early on Dsell and Volt pursued the same target (Robz).  Dsell seems the most distant in that he never really talks about Volt and his thoughts on Eevee are mixed.  But his first mention leans towards positive, his second is kind of an accusation but a REALLY weak one that really nobody should accept, and the last one is just very hedgy and still affirmative for Eevee.

Now considering that this is a team of 3, I no longer suspect O.  He almost got Eevee lynched, he didn't support Volt even slightly, and he called Dsell harmful to the town.

yuma was just absent... yeah...




Thought: Robz, the first Mafia NK, made some fairly substantial posts.  It may be interesting to consider those.

471 is the first big one.  Robz feels that yuma is not mafia, though this is mostly because yuma has been very quiet.  He also sees O as innocent.  He says he is wary of Volt and highly suspicious of Dsell and Eevee.

The next big one is 530.  He actually catches some other posts between Eevee, Dsell and Voltgloss that I missed or glossed over above, including one where Volt picks out Dsell as "most likely to be town".  And -- WOW -- check this out:

Of course I don't expect to convince you. Yes, I'm accusing all the people who voted for me (well, not Captain Frisk), but I'm beginning to imagine a Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss team.

They have certainly already begun acquitting each other:

I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).

A final impression:  out of everyone else so far, Dsell seems to be making the most generally reasonable, well-thought-out posts.  If I had to pick "most likely other player to be Town" at this very moment, I'd pick him. 

I know what they will say, and I know what many of you will say: If they were all mafia, there's no way they would play so closely, or vote together so immediately, or invest such public trust in each other, because it would look two suspicious. I believe they are employing a double bluff (double, single, triple? I can't count). Because we would not suspect people who do that, for exactly that reason. I believe they are giving it a try--working in semi-obvious tandem, so in tandem that it can't be possible.

This actually gives a perfect reason for selecting Robz as NK.  He miraculously picked out the team on the first freaking day.


Maybe.  More likely Robz picked out 2/3.  The question is, which 2?  Of these 3, who is scummiest?
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1345 on: June 14, 2012, 08:29:06 pm »

Looking at that I'm very confident in an Eevee/Volt pairing.  Maybe DSell too, or maybe they were just setting him up as the fall guy.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1346 on: June 14, 2012, 08:31:31 pm »

The post of Eevee that Robz quotes is the first one Eevee writes after the post of Volt (although Volt wrote some posts between).  I could definitely see Eevee thinking "Oh look, Volt is exonerating someone, I should do that for him in my post too" and accidentally or maliciously included DSell.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1347 on: June 14, 2012, 08:33:22 pm »

He miraculously picked out the team on the first freaking day.

Except he didn't. That is a good bit of investigative work though, picking 2 out of the 3 is a pretty good reason to NK him.

And yeah, I strongly believed that Volt was town day 1. I mildly believed Eevee was town. They both hopped on my bandwagon and said I was a good townie and otherwise made me feel good about my vote on Robz. They established trust in a townie. Not uncommon for scum.

Pre-post edit: I feel confident about that pairing too, Axxle.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1348 on: June 14, 2012, 08:44:34 pm »

Day 2 thoughts... just reading it over, not going as indepth as I did for day 1. 

yuma asks a question about 1-shot vigs (927) and the response gets him to vote for jo (930).  Was it because he was curious about his own role?  Granted, his posts make sense even if he's lying about being 1-shot vig.

Volt waits to see if anyone counterclaims Axxle.  Assuming Axxle is innocent, Volt would know he is telling the truth if Volt was mafia.  This could be a townie tell or it could be smart mafia play.

As far as the "SK or Mafia" argument over jo, O was the first one who really said he thought jo was likely Mafia.  After that, Axxle was slowly brought around.  Volt argued a bit for it.


924: Axxle votes for jo (1).
925: Volt says he'll wait before voting.
930: yuma votes for jo (2).
937: Eevee says he'll wait as well.
941: O votes for jo (3).
944: Dsell votes for jo (4).
947: Dsell unvotes (3).
949: Dsell votes for jo again (4).
953: Dsell unvotes a second time (3).
957: Dsell votes for jo a third time (4).
1004: eHalcyon votes for jo (5).
1017: Eevee votes for jo (6).  Hammered.

Not sure if this order of voting really says anything, but there it is.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1349 on: June 14, 2012, 08:51:27 pm »

Why was michaeljb night killed?  His last significant post was #1011.  He wants to analyze the people who voted for Galzria:

Galzria went from 0 votes to lynched in just under 3.5 hours, I just don't see that being done with absolutely no mafia push. So I'm inclined to look at those voters who are still alive (eHalcyon, O, jotheonah, Eevee, Dsell, Morgrim7). I'm confident there has to be at least one mafia in that group, and I think it's fairly likely two of them are mafia, and it's possible that all three are mafia, but that seems unlikely to me.

[snip]

Other people that voted for Galzria…
Well I'm still suspicious of Morgrim, I'd like to hear from him. Especially why he brought the hammer down, even when he was sure that Galzria was town. How could he be sure Galzria was town? And why would he then hammer him? Morgrim being mafia answers both questions, though perhaps a bit obviously. (And to address the possibility that automatically suspecting the hammer is a fallacy, just re-read my question with "vote" instead of "hammer")

eHalcyon, O, MrEevee, Dsell…I don't feel that I have a whole lot to say about any of these, certainly none of them are as suspicious to me as jotheonah and morgrim.

In that list, the ones who are alive and not cleared are Dsell and Eevee, and O to some extent.  Did he manage to accuse 2/3 mafia, similar to Robz?  Is that why he was killed, and then used to set up Morgrim?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1350 on: June 14, 2012, 08:55:51 pm »

Post was accidentally made on brothers account and deleted immediately, will be rewriting verbatim next post.

Sorry if anyone caught that.  :-X
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1351 on: June 14, 2012, 08:58:25 pm »

And sorry O, I'm still considering you.  You're more townie to me than the other three, but I think you're still machiavellian enough to be the Mafia kingpin.  It's a compliment. ;)

Oh of course. But as our goal today is to lynch the most likely mafia, I'll ignore it. I think you're lousy if you lynch me today, not suspect me.  :P

P-edit: It seems you don't suspect me anymore, all the better!. But I still have to post this so...
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1352 on: June 14, 2012, 09:04:41 pm »

Oops, I skipped out on the first page of day 2.  Other things that happened:

906: Dsell thinks Robz was killed to throw suspicion on Eevee, or maybe because Eevee is mafia.  I thought the latter, but maybe it was meant to be the former, as a defense of Eevee.  Actually, that's kind of suggested in 911.

913: Man, Dsell names himself, Eevee and Voltgloss.

915: Eevee sort of points FOS against Dsell.

916: Dsell responds in an extremely defensive manner.

918: Dsell addresses Eevee again, in a more reconciliatory manner.

919: Eevee mentions yuma as someone who was never suspicious.  And then there's this...

I still cant fathom Volt being mafia given how helpful he is (this might be a dangerious assumption though, I guess you only have to play one game when someone just completely fools everyone as mafia to not think like this but I yet havent) so I guess I am most suspicious of Dsell. (Dont even mean this as an accusation post you'd have to answer Dsell, merely telling people my thoughts). I just realized I probably wont be able to post for 15 hours so decided to postpone sleeps to get this in, zzz now.

Eevee aligns with Volt again, but says he is suspicious of Dsell.  Mafia distancing?  Or truly a pair thing?

923: yuma makes a helpful list which is just not so well formatted as mine were. ;)

924: Axxle reveals, everyone jumps on jo.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1353 on: June 14, 2012, 09:10:36 pm »

Why was michaeljb night killed?  His last significant post was #1011.  He wants to analyze the people who voted for Galzria:

Galzria went from 0 votes to lynched in just under 3.5 hours, I just don't see that being done with absolutely no mafia push. So I'm inclined to look at those voters who are still alive (eHalcyon, O, jotheonah, Eevee, Dsell, Morgrim7). I'm confident there has to be at least one mafia in that group, and I think it's fairly likely two of them are mafia, and it's possible that all three are mafia, but that seems unlikely to me.

[snip]

Other people that voted for Galzria…
Well I'm still suspicious of Morgrim, I'd like to hear from him. Especially why he brought the hammer down, even when he was sure that Galzria was town. How could he be sure Galzria was town? And why would he then hammer him? Morgrim being mafia answers both questions, though perhaps a bit obviously. (And to address the possibility that automatically suspecting the hammer is a fallacy, just re-read my question with "vote" instead of "hammer")

eHalcyon, O, MrEevee, Dsell…I don't feel that I have a whole lot to say about any of these, certainly none of them are as suspicious to me as jotheonah and morgrim.

In that list, the ones who are alive and not cleared are Dsell and Eevee, and O to some extent.  Did he manage to accuse 2/3 mafia, similar to Robz?  Is that why he was killed, and then used to set up Morgrim?

I feel like I led most of the Morgrim wagon. So yea, sorry, that wagon was just poor town play that some scum certainly jumped on (though not too poor because morgrim is batshit crazy).
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1354 on: June 14, 2012, 09:21:09 pm »

O, are your thoughts on Eevee the same as yesterday?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1355 on: June 14, 2012, 09:24:31 pm »

Also, it's getting to be crunch time for me. I will be posting my vote within the next 3-4 hours. So let's decide whether it's gonna be me, yuma, Eevee, or Volt.

Oh and if you're going to lynch me (which would be stupid stupid stupid. I've played a dreadful game if I'm mafia, and I'm not), at least lynch me by tonight.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1356 on: June 14, 2012, 09:27:41 pm »

Still lean Eevee a bit, mainly because you, Yuma and Voltgloss fingered him.

Still definitely not this week's lynch and I may defer to Ehalycon/Axxle in the end, or whoever is alive.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1357 on: June 14, 2012, 09:30:30 pm »

As day 3 begins, Axxle informs the town that Morgrim is vanilla (1021).

Volt immediately starts on Morgrim's case (1022).  To be fair, I would probably have done the same.  yuma joins in (1023).

1024: Dsell says he was confused about how many were needed to lynch.  Says Eevee should have been investigated.
1026: Dsell also indicates losing trust in Volt.
1029: Volt similarly raises doubts about Dsell.
1033: yuma goes after Morgrim.

1041: Dsell backs away a bit from his case against Eevee.  In a list of people he thinks could be Mafia (basically everyone still alive), he puts Axxle, Volt and Eevee at the bottom, in that order.  Any significance to that?  If this is a team of 3 Mafia, maybe it's a subconscious thing because people at the top appear more suspicious and he wants to keep suspicion off of his allies even as he tries to appear objective about them.  This is a stretch, I know.

-- various conversations, yuma continues after morgrim, Dsell begins suggesting no lynch --

1056: Dsell's main post about no lynch.
1058, 1059: O and Dsell wonder about mass claiming.
1061: Dsell quotes an early vote from yuma against Morgrim.  Still don't know why he did it.
1062: Volt's "what about doctors" question re: mass claim.
1065: O claims VT.
1066: Dsell claims VT.
1068: Morgrim claims VT, votes O.
1069: Dsell defends O.
1072: Volt is against mass-claiming.
1073: DSell explains why he is OK with mass-claiming.
1084: Voltgloss suggests that Dsell might be a mafia partner with Morgrim
1085: Eevee says about the same thing as Voltgloss and acknowledges this fact.

1092: eHalcyon mentions that he can't really figure out Eevee, Voltgloss or yuma.  Maybe this is why he is still alive today. And I presented a big case against Dsell too.
1104: Dsell defends himself re: hedgy behaviour, quoting yuma.

Too lazy to add post numbers now... the votes go:

Axxle votes Morgrim (1)
yuma votes for Morgrim (2)
yuma unvotes Morgrim (1)
Morgrim votes O (1)
eHalcyon votes Morgrim (3)
Eevee votes Morgrim (4)
Axxle unvotes (3)
Axxle revotes (4)
Axxle unvotes (3)
yuma votes Morgrim again (4)
Volt hammers (5)
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1358 on: June 14, 2012, 09:32:11 pm »

So right now I think Eevee and Volt are most suspicious.  I am inclined to go with Volt right now.

What do you think, Axxle?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1359 on: June 14, 2012, 09:36:02 pm »

So right now I think Eevee and Volt are most suspicious.  I am inclined to go with Volt right now.

What do you think, Axxle?

....Volt, Volt times 10000.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1360 on: June 14, 2012, 09:39:45 pm »

Boy are you guys going to be surprised when you learn that the Mafia are me, Axxle and O.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1361 on: June 14, 2012, 09:42:07 pm »

Throughout the entire game I've had an uneasy feeling about Eevee, but I'm also fine with voting Volt today.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1362 on: June 14, 2012, 09:42:25 pm »

Boy are you guys going to be surprised when you learn that the Mafia are me, Axxle and O.
Bwahahahahaha
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1363 on: June 14, 2012, 09:42:35 pm »

Boy are you guys going to be surprised when you learn that the Mafia are me, Axxle and O.

Best mafia group on any forum ever?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1364 on: June 14, 2012, 09:43:49 pm »

Boy are you guys going to be surprised when you learn that the Mafia are me, Axxle and O.

Best mafia group on any forum ever?

Way to block yourselves from getting your immanent win. :P
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1365 on: June 14, 2012, 09:44:42 pm »

I'm really tempted to vote right now...I'm about to leave and will be gone for an hour or so.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1366 on: June 14, 2012, 09:46:06 pm »

I'm really tempted to vote right now...I'm about to leave and will be gone for an hour or so.
Shall we?
Vote: Voltgloss
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1367 on: June 14, 2012, 09:47:18 pm »

So do we wait for them to make a defense or power through now?  There are four of us here, I think?

FWIW I think yuma is a good investigation target.  But if our lynchee flips plain Mafia it might be worth investigating another suspect and hope to catch a Mafia role.

I think I am going to die tonight as I am the only one who I can't protect.  For the record, I probably won't jail Axxle, but I won't rule it out.  Stay on your toes, Mafia.  8)

Axxle, do you want to reveal who you investigated?  I am hoping you found a secret doctor.  ;)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1368 on: June 14, 2012, 09:48:27 pm »

Vote:Voltgloss
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1369 on: June 14, 2012, 09:55:47 pm »

well.. lack of response is unencouraging.

I'll be back in some hours I guess.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1370 on: June 14, 2012, 09:56:46 pm »

I guess Dsell actually left?  Someone else can bus their partner then.  :P

Vote: Voltgloss
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1371 on: June 14, 2012, 09:57:57 pm »

DSell said "for an hour" not "in an hour" so hopefully he'll be back.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1372 on: June 14, 2012, 09:59:23 pm »

Somehow, eHal failed to mention that Volt's 523 is also a defense of Eevee. He takes Robz very literally and makes the case against Eevee completely fabricated.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1373 on: June 14, 2012, 10:00:44 pm »

Well I am still leaving very soon but I'm actually still here. For just another second.

Just long enough to...

Vote: Voltgloss

Yay, I feel like this is the first really good thing the town has done in this game (ok, lynching jo was pretty good too)!
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1374 on: June 14, 2012, 10:02:57 pm »

Somehow, eHal failed to mention that Volt's 523 is also a defense of Eevee. He takes Robz very literally and makes the case against Eevee completely fabricated.

I have a spreadsheet on Google docs indexing pretty much all the significant posts I noticed on day 1.  I had this on post 523:

Quote
VOTES for Robz. Lays out a pretty strong case against him (523).

So when I looked over the spreadsheet just now, I missed the finer points.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1375 on: June 14, 2012, 10:03:38 pm »

Oops, meant to say "makes the case against Eevee *look completely fabricated."

Not like it matters now...
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1376 on: June 14, 2012, 10:06:02 pm »

I rather hope we have a long twilight so we can keep posting at least until I have to sleep tonight. :P

Also, I guess this means I will miss the start of day 5. Don't lynch without me!!
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1377 on: June 14, 2012, 10:06:50 pm »

Well, if we decide to lynch you. ;)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1378 on: June 14, 2012, 10:07:46 pm »

Well, if we decide to lynch you. ;)

Then you'd want to give me a chance to respond to suspicions, right? ???
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1379 on: June 14, 2012, 10:08:23 pm »

We didn't really give Volt a chance to respond here.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1380 on: June 14, 2012, 10:08:49 pm »

I rather hope we have a long twilight so we can keep posting at least until I have to sleep tonight. :P

Also, I guess this means I will miss the start of day 5. Don't lynch without me!!
Here's to hoping that you don't get NK'd
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1381 on: June 14, 2012, 10:09:42 pm »

We didn't really give Volt a chance to respond here.
No, we didn't give him the chance to spread more disinformation.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1382 on: June 14, 2012, 10:10:27 pm »

If someone dies tonight, it's your or me Axxle.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1383 on: June 14, 2012, 10:11:06 pm »

You'd think that.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1384 on: June 14, 2012, 10:15:37 pm »

I'd love to get NK'd. Not that I don't want to play, but it will confirm me as town.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1385 on: June 14, 2012, 10:18:29 pm »

By the way, if you're feeling bored, you should look for the jailkeeper tell I left early on day 1.  ;)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1386 on: June 14, 2012, 10:19:59 pm »

Hey Dsell, wanna share that night plan you mentioned?  You only gave vague details earlier.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1387 on: June 14, 2012, 10:23:54 pm »

1) nightplan please!
2) If you're bored go to Mafia IV!
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1388 on: June 14, 2012, 10:50:20 pm »

Hey Dsell, wanna share that night plan you mentioned?  You only gave vague details earlier.

I gave vague details because I realized that my initial plan wasn't as airtight as I at first thought because of characteristics of the jailkeeper and other variables.

Basically though, you have a better chance at blocking a kill than protecting someone, eHal. Well actually that's only true if you block/protect the right people. But in general, blocking is better than protecting. (50/50 vs 1/3 and you can't protect yourself). And Axxle, it looks like the best plan for you is to investigate yuma if you haven't (I'm assuming you haven't since you were conflicted about him earlier...). Oh and DON'T DIE. Seriously it would be great to get a confirmation one way or the other on yuma.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1389 on: June 14, 2012, 10:54:46 pm »

May be more useful to investigate someone else.  Just saying.

Your jailing advice is basically what made me jail yuma last night.  I'll have to re-evaluate tonight.  I won't guarantee that I'm going for the block though.  Axxle is still a possibility.  O is possible as well, because he might be victim and he might truly be a mafioso virtuoso, in which case he would be the best bet to perform the kill because none of us suspect him.  EXCEPT I DO.

Mafia, the battle of wits has begun.

Unless Volt is town and it's game over.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1390 on: June 14, 2012, 10:55:46 pm »

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1391 on: June 14, 2012, 10:56:59 pm »

Suddenly wanting to watch Princess Bride again.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1392 on: June 14, 2012, 11:19:49 pm »

Insomnaic I see you online you bastard.  >:(
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1393 on: June 14, 2012, 11:20:48 pm »

The things the man screamed at you still haunt you, a worried town looks to Axxle for guidance, Axxle says GET VOLTGLOSS! and O, eHalcyon and Dsell quickly jump on board you string him up by his feet and leave him for dead. When he finally passes his shelter card drops out of his pocket, you read it over, turns out he wasn't from this shelter at all.



Voltgloss Mafia Goon is dead

Final Vote Count
4-2
Voltgloss (4) - Axxle, O, eHalcyon, Dsell
Not Voting (2) - Eevee, yuma

Night 4 has begun, deadline for night actions is June 16 9:00pm
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1394 on: June 14, 2012, 11:22:24 pm »

Insomnaic I see you online you bastard.  >:(

I was working on checking for votes and then writing a story!

Thread locked
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 4
« Reply #1395 on: June 17, 2012, 12:43:07 am »

No one died last night. I'll edit and add flavor later.

Someone has been looking over the shelter as of lately, the inflow of twigs seems to have increased, the mood is much happier than it was previous, well compared to times when it was less happy but not happier when compared to times that were super happy fun times. Regardless you can't think of a better morning recently the mafia influence on your shelter seems to have loosened its grip, at least for now...

No one died last night

Vote Count 5-0
Not Voting (5) - O, Axxle, Dsell, Eevee, eHalcyon, yuma
With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline: June 25, 2012, 11:59pm PDT   (Note this is an extended deadline)
« Last Edit: June 17, 2012, 02:33:15 am by Insomniac »
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 4
« Reply #1396 on: June 17, 2012, 12:58:15 am »

Sweeeeeeeeeeet.

I can actually imagine a few different scenarios for how we managed to avoid another kill.  The scenario I am hoping for would be so, so awesome.

In the interest of not tainting discussion, I choose not to divulge who I jailed.  But feel free to guess.  ;D
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1397 on: June 17, 2012, 01:15:17 am »

May be more useful to investigate someone else.  Just saying.

Your jailing advice is basically what made me jail yuma last night.  I'll have to re-evaluate tonight.  I won't guarantee that I'm going for the block though.  Axxle is still a possibility.  O is possible as well, because he might be victim and he might truly be a mafioso virtuoso, in which case he would be the best bet to perform the kill because none of us suspect him.  EXCEPT I DO.

Mafia, the battle of wits has begun.

Unless Volt is town and it's game over.

michaeljb upvoted this post.  Is this a message from beyond the grave?  Is he telling us that O truly is a mafia member?  Or maybe he is expressing satisfaction that we avenged his death at Volt's hand?  Or maybe he is simply a big fan of the dread pirate Roberts.  We may never know.

Rest in peace, Michael.  Or if you'd rather be restless and haunty, may your tortured spirit protect this shelter.  And send us some twigs or waffles or something.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 4
« Reply #1398 on: June 17, 2012, 01:50:53 am »

And the spirit of Galzria upvoted that post.  Sorry for lynching you on day 1, brother.  You deserved better.  Like, a real branch.  No twigs for you.

And it appears my shelter brethren are still asleep.  Why won't that beggar leader scream his alarm scream?  Why am I even awake at this wretched hour?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 5
« Reply #1399 on: June 17, 2012, 02:36:58 am »

Yuma is a rolecop.  Hmm....
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 5
« Reply #1400 on: June 17, 2012, 02:39:27 am »

Yuma is a rolecop.  Hmm....

You didn't have to give that away so fast. :P

I did not jail yuma last night.  If you are not Mafia, we win.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 4
« Reply #1401 on: June 17, 2012, 02:40:12 am »

And the spirit of Galzria upvoted that post.  Sorry for lynching you on day 1, brother.  You deserved better.  Like, a real branch.  No twigs for you.

And it appears my shelter brethren are still asleep.  Why won't that beggar leader scream his alarm scream?  Why am I even awake at this wretched hour?

Hai.

Wooooooooo
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 5
« Reply #1402 on: June 17, 2012, 02:42:24 am »

Or wait, I may be assuming too much actually.  The person I jailed might have been the target.  Still, I find it really unlikely because I didn't jail Axxle or myself, but still.  We can test it tonight when I jail the same person.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 5
« Reply #1403 on: June 17, 2012, 02:46:48 am »

I guess there's no point keeping it secret though.  I jailed Eevee.

I seriously considered jailing ALL of you.  I ultimately decided that it was too hard to figure out who was most trustworthy.  I suspected Dsell to various degrees since day 1, but he seemed a lot less scummy recently.  And I trusted O ever since I unvoted him on day 1, but I seriously started thinking he might be godfather.

So assuming the Mafia isn't doing some crazy no-lynch gambit, or even targeting someone other than Axxle or me... and umm, assuming we don't have a lying doctor... we lynch yuma now, and then I jail Eevee again and we see what happens after that.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 5
« Reply #1404 on: June 17, 2012, 02:48:33 am »

Eevee Yuma Voltgloss trio if you trust me as town: Why the hell would the mafia target eevee over one of us?

Either way we still have more days and can kill Yuma now.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 5
« Reply #1405 on: June 17, 2012, 02:51:56 am »

Wait, I forgot the point of my post.  The point was that I decided to screw trying to figure out who the Mafia was and just jail the most obvious Volt-partner.  I hoped the Mafia would WIFOM and decide I wouldn't go for obvious.  Looks like it worked?

Yes absolutely take Yuma now.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 5
« Reply #1406 on: June 17, 2012, 02:55:15 am »

Vote:Yuma
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 5
« Reply #1407 on: June 17, 2012, 02:56:22 am »

Vote: yuma

Any comments, Axxle?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 4
« Reply #1408 on: June 17, 2012, 03:06:00 am »

Deadline: June 25, 2012, 11:59pm PDT   (Note this is an extended deadline)


Is the deadline extended for Dsell?  If Dsell is not Mafia (because Eevee and yuma are now top suspects) and the other Mafia won't bus, then we will not be able to lynch until Dsell returns.  It takes 4.  :-\
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1409 on: June 17, 2012, 03:21:31 am »

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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1410 on: June 17, 2012, 03:42:09 am »

Nope, coming back the 23rd.  :-\

Right then.

By the by, in case something bad does happen...

After we lynch yuma, if he flips scum as he should, I will jail Eevee.  If he flips town, it is up in the air and obviously Axxle can't be trusted.  (Hey, it is extremely unlikely, but we can use contingencies anyway.)

Honestly though, it would be pretty amazing if Axxle was scum after all this, since he would have been able to frame anyone he wanted yesterday.

And if somehow I die on the night I jail Eevee (again assuming yuma is lynched and is scum), you'd be able to safely assume that Eevee is confirmed town.

Just putting that out there because I am still paranoid and wondering why Axxle didn't just vote yuma immediately.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 5
« Reply #1411 on: June 17, 2012, 04:09:35 am »

Vote: Yuma

I didn't before vote and revealed it fast because I was and am drunk.  Woohoo!!!

Also: I investigated Eevee the other day and he is Vanilla.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 5
« Reply #1412 on: June 18, 2012, 10:43:29 am »

Oh yeah, are we still playing this game?

Here I will add some flavor instead of Insomniac.

After morning broke yuma left the shelter to find some more sticks, he was always so thoughtful that way. As he left Axxle told everyone else... "I heard yuma in his sleep last night. He was mumbling about Voltgloss, michaeljb, Robz, Galzria and that 'louse Morgrim.' And then he muttered, 'I hate them, I hate them all! We should have had this shelter all to ourselves! Just me, Voltgloss and ....' and with that he fell back asleep. He must be mafia!"

Once Axxle told everyone this, eHalycon, O and Axxle quickly arranged their sticks into an elaborate Rube Goldberg guillotine, but dash it all, they were just a few sticks short. Just then yuma walked back into the shelter carrying some sticks. He saw the gleam in their eyes and new his time was up. He gave them his sticks, they finished the way too overly complex decapitation device and calmly placed his head underneath. His last words were, "Run my fellow mafia member run, before they discover who you were! Run and don't look back. You were my best friend in this horrible, stinky, no good hole of a shelter, I go to a better place."

vote:yuma
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 5
« Reply #1413 on: June 18, 2012, 11:05:24 am »

Oh yeah, are we still playing this game?

Here I will add some flavor instead of Insomniac.

After morning broke yuma left the shelter to find some more sticks, he was always so thoughtful that way. As he left Axxle told everyone else... "I heard yuma in his sleep last night. He was mumbling about Voltgloss, michaeljb, Robz, Galzria and that 'louse Morgrim.' And then he muttered, 'I hate them, I hate them all! We should have had this shelter all to ourselves! Just me, Voltgloss and ....' and with that he fell back asleep. He must be mafia!"

Once Axxle told everyone this, eHalycon, O and Axxle quickly arranged their sticks into an elaborate Rube Goldberg guillotine, but dash it all, they were just a few sticks short. Just then yuma walked back into the shelter carrying some sticks. He saw the gleam in their eyes and new his time was up. He gave them his sticks, they finished the way too overly complex decapitation device and calmly placed his head underneath. His last words were, "Run my fellow mafia member run, before they discover who you were! Run and don't look back. You were my best friend in this horrible, stinky, no good hole of a shelter, I go to a better place."

vote:yuma

Thanks yuma. :-)

Still playing but it's purely mechanical now, unless you guys have set up an elaborate trap.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 5
« Reply #1414 on: June 18, 2012, 11:24:38 am »

After morning broke yuma left the shelter to find some more sticks, he was always so thoughtful that way. As he left Axxle told everyone else... "I heard yuma in his sleep last night. He was mumbling about Voltgloss, michaeljb, Robz, Galzria and that 'louse Morgrim.' And then he muttered, 'I hate them, I hate them all! We should have had this shelter all to ourselves! Just me, Voltgloss and ....' and with that he fell back asleep. He must be mafia!"

Once Axxle told everyone this, eHalycon, O and Axxle quickly arranged their sticks into an elaborate Rube Goldberg guillotine, but dash it all, they were just a few sticks short. Just then yuma walked back into the shelter carrying some sticks. He saw the gleam in their eyes and new his time was up. He gave them his sticks, they finished the way too overly complex decapitation device and calmly placed his head underneath. His last words were, "Run my fellow mafia member run, before they discover who you were! Run and don't look back. You were my best friend in this horrible, stinky, no good hole of a shelter, I go to a better place."

Stole the flavour from yuma.
yuma mafia rolecop is dead

Night 5 begins now and ends on June 20 at 8am
« Last Edit: June 19, 2012, 11:04:51 am by Insomniac »
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Night 5
« Reply #1415 on: June 20, 2012, 11:37:27 am »

You awake to your shelter, your still hungry but the number of people that have died over the last 5 days have left you more twigs than ever before, in a way you're kind of glad your friends died (you're mean!). But no one has died in the recent nights your starting to get more confident in your ability to get a restful night sleep without waking up with a branch in your back.

No one died last night
Day 6 has begun

Deadline June 27 8:30am PDT

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch
« Last Edit: June 20, 2012, 12:27:40 pm by Insomniac »
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 6
« Reply #1416 on: June 20, 2012, 12:18:00 pm »

Do we even need to discuss?

Vote: Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 6
« Reply #1417 on: June 20, 2012, 12:21:53 pm »

Vote: Eevee
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 6
« Reply #1418 on: June 20, 2012, 12:51:39 pm »

Vote:Eevee :)

Forgot to do this yesterday, sorry.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 6
« Reply #1419 on: June 20, 2012, 12:54:44 pm »

Vote:Eevee :)

Forgot to do this yesterday, sorry.
Man, I'm even worse at being mafia online than I am live :(
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 6
« Reply #1420 on: June 20, 2012, 12:55:28 pm »

Vote:Eevee :)

Forgot to do this yesterday, sorry.

It was a close one.  Some lucky jails. :)

Is MIII over now?  Time to start MV?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 6
« Reply #1421 on: June 20, 2012, 01:07:05 pm »

It was too bad about the cop/rolecop mix up.  If not for that, jo would have had a great chance.  I am not sure how he would have played the end game, but he would certainly have survived d2.  Mafia probably wouldn't target him at night, thinking he was effectively a VT after the first night.

I think one of the mafia should have role claimed doctor.  Probably yuma, as anyone else would risk being caught in a lie.  Axxle would probably still investigate yuma, but I would not have jailed him because I would have wanted doctor alive. 

That leaves yuma free to kill Axxle or me.  Killing me is guaranteed to work and ensures successful night kills thereafter.  Targeting Axxle is slightly riskier because I might jail him, but if that happens, nothing changes at all (because Axxle wouldn't be able to identify yuma as Mafia).  Suspicion would also have grown on whoever I did jail that night, though it would be largely inconclusive.

If I am targeted, I die and yuma is exposed, but then Eevee may be able to string Dsell, possibly even O (especially after the fodder I gave).  If Axxle dies, that leaves us in a major pinch.  yuma can claim that he tried to save me, which is suspicious but arguable (role cop is more reliable, especially for info on yuma).  But there are arguments to be made for it, including "mafia is trying to frame yuma by not allowing Axxle to confirm yuma's role".
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 6
« Reply #1422 on: June 20, 2012, 01:08:36 pm »

Vote:Eevee :)

Forgot to do this yesterday, sorry.

It was a close one.  Some lucky jails. :)

Is MIII over now?  Time to start MV?

Axxle, eHalcyon and Eevee grab some of the ample sticks left over since the deaths have taken hold and quickly lynch Eevee. Once Eevee dies the card in his jacket is checked, sure enough it says he was from a different shelter and was infact a Mafia Goon

The Mafia threat is eliminated, the town wins
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 6
« Reply #1423 on: June 20, 2012, 01:10:14 pm »

Well played Town.  Wish I could have put up more of a fight but it coincided with a particularly hellish time in RL.  But them's the breaks.

I was going to roleclaim Doctor but I was really, really, REALLY convinced Axxle had investigated me.  Axxle, was I right?

Learned a lot about playing Mafia (what to do, what not to do) this game.  I can see my own mistakes looking back.  Food for thought for next time around.  :)

I feel worst for jo.  He (inadvertently, of course) didn't get a fair shake.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1424 on: June 20, 2012, 01:10:53 pm »

Yay, can I post now?

Congratulations, fellow townies!!!

I must give myself the Gold Star Award for picking Eevee out immediately on Day 1.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1425 on: June 20, 2012, 01:11:27 pm »

Here is the Dead Townie society quicktopic: http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/Enkj7w86yLpCq
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1426 on: June 20, 2012, 01:16:08 pm »

Mafia V will begin tonight.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars Day 6
« Reply #1427 on: June 20, 2012, 01:19:41 pm »

I think one of the mafia should have role claimed doctor.  Probably yuma, as anyone else would risk being caught in a lie.  Axxle would probably still investigate yuma, but I would not have jailed him because I would have wanted doctor alive. 
I tried to be ambiguous enough about the previous night's result so that the mafia might be worried that there was an unclaimed doctor among the VTs so they'd be a bit wary of claiming it.  Don't know if that worked or not.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1428 on: June 20, 2012, 01:28:21 pm »

I was worried dSell was Doctor.  So I guess that worked?  ...but more so because of power-role balance.  With three Mafia (one Rolecop) and 1 SK, I was sure the town would have at least 3 power roles.  Rolecop, Jailer... and I assumed Doctor, and the only one left was dSell.

Knowing now that the town originally had Cop/Jailer - and Cop being so powerful it's probably worth 2 roles - suddenly made everything make much more sense.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1429 on: June 20, 2012, 01:30:10 pm »

I got a bad break from that rolecop/ cop mistake. I'm not saying I would have held out to the end, but I do think I could have lasted a bit longer.  Really it was Galzria's reading me like a freaking book that did me in.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1430 on: June 20, 2012, 01:39:20 pm »

I had J and Volt as hard scum reads D1. At first I thought as a team, but Jo's roleclaim made me realize he was the SK.

What I never did understand is why so many people reacted to the Roleclaim with "oh, ok. That settles it then. He's clean." :-/

Still, like I said in the QT and discussion thread, real tip of the hat to Yuma. Leaving D1 (and for most of the game) you had most of us dead townies reading you wrong.

I was sure about Volt. Robz was sure about Eevee. He thought Dsell made number 3, and I thought eHal made number 3. So well done.
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Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1431 on: June 20, 2012, 02:02:57 pm »

The roles seem to be not very easily understood what exactly they do.  I know that Jailer, Cop, and Rolecop had that problem in MI.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1432 on: June 20, 2012, 02:07:02 pm »

So for me to chime in, I thought the first few days were super interesting, I did screw up on Axxle, I had read the role cop role and pmd him as if he was a role cop for jotheonah, in doing so we turned him into a rolecop thinking it was just as powerful as a cop. Oops. That said I was VERY impressed by the late jailkeeping by eH he managed to target who the mafia sent for the kill everytime. It had previously been Volt, so I dont know why Volt didnt continue with the kill on eH who the mafia knew was jailkeeper, yuma did it instead.

For those of you thinking the town was underpowered it was originally a cop and a jailkeeper, vs a serial killer and mafia. I DIDN'T expect the town to kill Jo after learning he was an SK as his desire day 2 would have been to kill mafia I think.

The original setup was reviewed by pops who thought the balance was fine.

Outstanding job to Axxle and eH for recovering the town. Tip of the hat to the mafia as well for almost getting a perfect game.

The rest is very transparent.


Sincerest appologies to jotheonah for the mixup.

And as I knew all the roles, I thought jotheonah was dead day 1 I couldn't believe the one-shot vig claim was bought up as I thought your day 1 play was so erradic but I really enjoyed watcheing the early days. The last few days after everyone thought it was over was interesting to watch it turn around but wasn't nearly as fun. The night actions was the fun part at that point for me, watching eH hit who the mafia sent for the kill everytime
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1433 on: June 20, 2012, 02:09:47 pm »

You're right, Insomniac, it's no big deal. As I said in the Dead Townie QT, the moment I posted that super long defense with two votes on me I was toast. The only non scummy reason for that level of survivalism was a PR, so I felt I had to go for it.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1434 on: June 20, 2012, 02:21:04 pm »

Quote from: O
Eevee's is a damn excellent mafia if he's scum after the massive freaking townread I had from his post, but he lurks.

My only star moment :)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1435 on: June 20, 2012, 02:24:53 pm »

To be clear:  now that I know the original setup was cop/jailer vs. mafia rolecop/SK, I agree it was balanced (as originally intended).  It was the role cop thing that had me thrown, thinking there must be a doctor out there somewhere as well.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1436 on: June 20, 2012, 02:31:29 pm »

Oh and also - we lynched Robz day 1 because I was convinced he was a power role.  All his oblique hinting about "you should keep me around" and asking doctors to think carefully about who they protect.  The fact that he targeted Eevee was a secondary concern (in fact, we saw that as a reason NOT to lynch him, but I was so sure about his powerroleness we plowed ahead).

I did, for the record, have jo pegged as SK Day 1.  Of course, as mafia that's a bit easier to do...  ;)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1437 on: June 20, 2012, 02:34:05 pm »

Well Galzria and I remain the only winning mafia team.  8)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1438 on: June 20, 2012, 02:34:54 pm »

Will comment more in depth soon. I'll link a ridiculous Google doc I made for day 1.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1439 on: June 20, 2012, 02:35:25 pm »

For the record when I get to be mafia I will ruin you Robz ;), you'll stay alive so I can outdebate you.

EDIT: That said you will of course know that I'm mafia
« Last Edit: June 20, 2012, 02:39:33 pm by Insomniac »
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1440 on: June 20, 2012, 02:40:52 pm »

Btw, Volt is a ridic good mafia. We had pretty awesome discussion before day 1, I learnt a lot.

..Cant wait to play irl mafia and crush everyone lol, you guys are too smart for my liking.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1441 on: June 20, 2012, 02:41:06 pm »

For the record when I get to be mafia I will ruin you Robz ;), you'll stay alive so I can outdebate you.

EDIT: That said you will of course know that I'm mafia

Note to self: if past D2, and Insomniac and Robz are still alive, lynch Insomniac.
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Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1442 on: June 20, 2012, 02:42:44 pm »

Volt, was that soft-claim of Doctor intentional? Why didn't you go for a full-blown doc claim when you were under the gun?
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1443 on: June 20, 2012, 02:53:52 pm »

Volt, was that soft-claim of Doctor intentional? Why didn't you go for a full-blown doc claim when you were under the gun?

I was sure Axxle had investigated me, and that a full-blown Doc claim would have immediately led to a full-blown lynch.

But perhaps I tried to play it too "safe."  I was having a lot of trouble concentrating on the game that week, and probably should have gone more boldly for the Doc claim. 

The ironic thing is that I didn't originally mean for my post to be read as a softclaim (when I first posted it).  I noted it after the fact and was considering claiming Doc for the next day, but I didn't want to risk it until after Axxle revealed his investigation result.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1444 on: June 20, 2012, 03:14:04 pm »

For the record, I don't think Axxle investigated you.  I'm pretty sure he revealed (the next day) that he had investigated Eevee for that crucial night.

Here is the link to a MIII day 1 spreadsheet I made, charting all (IMO) significant posts made by everyone.  Post number is included in parentheses, though I may have forgotten to include it a few times.  But it's sorted by page number per row, so posts can still be easily found.  I compiled it during Night 1 before deciding who to jail.

While it was nice for tracking individual actions, it didn't help a lot with seeing player interactions until the late game when there weren't many players left.

Something I learned from making the list -- it is very easy for townies to get lost and to make mistakes.  When Galz first posted his case against jo, I believed it.  But as the day continued, other arguments creeped in and, next thing I knew, I incorrectly remembered that I thought Galz's case against jo was weak.  If Mafia had dug up that contradiction, that would have made me extremely suspicious.  I believe I fessed up to my unwitting change of heart on day 2, as it was better than waiting for Mafia to catch it.

I also noticed that Robz seemed to contradict himself as well.  If he hadn't been killed, I would have been after him.  The thing was that early on in the day he seemed to be against no lynch, but by the end he was advocating it.  I think I actually did this too though!

Did anyone find the jailkeeper tell I left on day 1?  It was very subtle and I wasn't even sure of the legality of it, in that it treads kind of close to the "no cryptography" rule.  But I figured that rule was mostly in place to keep Mafia from communicating during the day, and I didn't have to reveal my secret unless absolutely required.

Major props to Robz and Galz for having such scarily accurate reads on day 1.  It's too bad that those reads got you killed.  On the plus side, it proves that catching Mafia isn't purely chance, nor are town powers required. 

In parallel, I think I only managed to stay alive through the early nights because I had such bad reads on people.  I was most suspicious of Dsell by far, and I continued to doubt O even when others had cleared him.  I made lots of mistakes early on.  We could have had a more productive day 2, and we should have realized something was wrong with the Morgrim wagon (although "they're all bussing him" was plausible, I think).  I definitely got lucky on jailing yuma when it mattered most.  I think my Eevee jail after that was a good WIFOM play. :)

Definitely misread Volt's doctor "tell".  Funny that Dsell saw it too and thought it was a Mafia tactic, when apparently Volt did it by accident.

After reading the QT, I'm surprised I was so suspicious throughout.  But hey, 50/50 is actually right where you want to be, right?  Enough to survive day and night.  ::)
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1445 on: June 20, 2012, 03:20:55 pm »

Re: my spreadsheet, I will probably be taking it offline in a few days.  And I probably won't be doing something like that again... too time-consuming.

Re: my tell, two hints:

It starts on page 9.

I accidentally interrupted it at one point.

That should probably give it away fairly well.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1446 on: June 20, 2012, 03:22:07 pm »

You were largely suspicious to me because you jumped all over my relaxing my reads on J.

I mean, I was getting:

"please consider other options!"

"please consider other options!"

"please consider other options!"

...

"Ok, we're near the deadline, I'll consider other options"

...

"He must be Mafia! He's considering other options instead of sticking to what he believes! /voteGalzria!"

...

Well, you can imagine how I suddenly saw you in a rather scummy light.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1447 on: June 20, 2012, 03:23:26 pm »

Re: my tell, two hints:

It starts on page 9.

I accidentally interrupted it at one point.

That should probably give it away fairly well.
Hahaha, +1
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1448 on: June 20, 2012, 03:24:36 pm »

For the record when I get to be mafia I will ruin you Robz ;), you'll stay alive so I can outdebate you.

EDIT: That said you will of course know that I'm mafia

Note to self: if past D2, and Insomniac and Robz are still alive, lynch Insomniac.

The meta meta, if your mafia and you don't have insomniac and robz in your team let both live :p
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1449 on: June 20, 2012, 03:32:05 pm »

You were largely suspicious to me because you jumped all over my relaxing my reads on J.

I mean, I was getting:

"please consider other options!"

"please consider other options!"

"please consider other options!"

...

"Ok, we're near the deadline, I'll consider other options"

...

"He must be Mafia! He's considering other options instead of sticking to what he believes! /voteGalzria!"

...

Well, you can imagine how I suddenly saw you in a rather scummy light.

Yeah, sorry about that.  FWIW, I wasn't asking you to consider other options (as far as I can remember).  I was asking for you to present a strong case, because at that point I thought your case was really weak.  But as I mentioned above, I realized upon reading back that I actually thought you made good points the first time you spoke up against jo.  I just misremembered my own feelings.  Can't remember how that happened exactly.  I think I was getting suspicious of Robz and just didn't like how much you were defending him, though in hindsight you were correct to do so.

Oh, and I don't think any of us thought jo was cleared after his d1 claim -- we just thought that he shouldn't be lynched until investigative roles had a chance to check him out.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1450 on: June 20, 2012, 03:41:03 pm »

You were largely suspicious to me because you jumped all over my relaxing my reads on J.

I mean, I was getting:

"please consider other options!"

"please consider other options!"

"please consider other options!"

...

"Ok, we're near the deadline, I'll consider other options"

...

"He must be Mafia! He's considering other options instead of sticking to what he believes! /voteGalzria!"

...

Well, you can imagine how I suddenly saw you in a rather scummy light.

Yeah, sorry about that.  FWIW, I wasn't asking you to consider other options (as far as I can remember).  I was asking for you to present a strong case, because at that point I thought your case was really weak.  But as I mentioned above, I realized upon reading back that I actually thought you made good points the first time you spoke up against jo.  I just misremembered my own feelings.  Can't remember how that happened exactly.  I think I was getting suspicious of Robz and just didn't like how much you were defending him, though in hindsight you were correct to do so.

Oh, and I don't think any of us thought jo was cleared after his d1 claim -- we just thought that he shouldn't be lynched until investigative roles had a chance to check him out.

And yet proper investigative roles would have checked him out clean. ;)

Still, for all of that, you were lowest on my list. Mafia #3, interchangeable with a handful of others.

I was stoked when I called Michaeljb's NK by the Mafia though. On the other hand, I had him listed as toss-up with Yuma as the other target...  Glad you guys caught him in a lie. He might've gotten away with it otherwise...


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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1451 on: June 20, 2012, 03:44:27 pm »

It might have been better for yuma to claim VT.  If he did so, we would have had less to go on.  Axxle might not have investigated him.

Hm, it might have been interesting if a Mafia claimed Doctor and then another counterclaimed.  Or would that have been too risky?
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1452 on: June 20, 2012, 04:08:24 pm »

Hey dead townie QTers... Crazy is currently 2-0 as town  ;)
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1453 on: June 20, 2012, 04:14:26 pm »

Fun fact, this thread has been viewed more than M4 but has less replies
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1454 on: June 20, 2012, 04:15:19 pm »

Hey dead townie QTers... Crazy is currently 2-0 as town  ;)

That's ok, I won't hold it against you
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1455 on: June 20, 2012, 04:58:01 pm »

We won! Yay. Thanks Insomiac, this was really fun.
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Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1456 on: June 20, 2012, 05:04:16 pm »

Thanks so much for modding Insomniac!
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1457 on: June 20, 2012, 05:08:36 pm »

You're all welcome I had a lot of fun modding it and am glad you all enjoyed it :)
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1458 on: June 20, 2012, 05:34:58 pm »

Absolutely agreed.  Thanks very much, Insomniac.  Great fun.  :)

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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1459 on: June 24, 2012, 03:56:29 am »

YES so glad we won!!

I'm sad I missed the end but I'm glad it worked out perfectly (and just how I was thinking things SHOULD go while I was gone) and I feel validated that my strong suspicion was correct!! This game was super super interesting for me. I know I made tons of mistakes, chief among them batting for a Robz lynch day 1, but I think I really cleared my head after a while and I was happy enough with my end game. It can just be so dang tough to convince people you're town. Oh, and my early game reads were terrible. Just terrible.

Really fun to read the quicktopic, thanks for making that. Kind of love how everybody thought I was mafia early. I realized I was doing some super scummy stuff but didn't really see another way. I would totally defend unvoting jo though! That was just some fun argumentative sparring between him and Axxle.

Something I learned from making the list -- it is very easy for townies to get lost and to make mistakes.  When Galz first posted his case against jo, I believed it.  But as the day continued, other arguments creeped in and, next thing I knew, I incorrectly remembered that I thought Galz's case against jo was weak.

Oh man the last couple days were stressful for me. eHal seemed to be SO suspicious of me but his arguments were weak or wrong on almost all counts. But I couldn't defend myself like a madman either!! So I was just grinning and bearing it. That's what you get with a confirmed townie: analysis that is important but not necessarily accurate. No offense to you eHal, you played a great game aside from that, especially with your crucial late game jails, they were spot on. Also interesting that unlike many others, I had a pretty good town read on you 90% of the game.

Great game to ALL players (I really, really thought the mafia were going to sweep) and a huge shout out to Insomniac for moderating.  ;D
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1460 on: June 25, 2012, 01:08:12 pm »

Oh man the last couple days were stressful for me. eHal seemed to be SO suspicious of me but his arguments were weak or wrong on almost all counts. But I couldn't defend myself like a madman either!! So I was just grinning and bearing it. That's what you get with a confirmed townie: analysis that is important but not necessarily accurate. No offense to you eHal, you played a great game aside from that, especially with your crucial late game jails, they were spot on. Also interesting that unlike many others, I had a pretty good town read on you 90% of the game.

Great game to ALL players (I really, really thought the mafia were going to sweep) and a huge shout out to Insomniac for moderating.  ;D

No offense taken!  But if there was a good way to defend, you should have taken it.  And if there wasn't, then my arguments weren't so weak. ;)

The thing about my playstyle is that I like to consider as many possibilities as I can think of.  I entertained the idea of Godfather O for quite a while, even though it was unlikely.  And you really were pretty scummy, especially early on.  The association with both Eevee and Volt on day 1 didn't help, although some falling out between you guys on subsequent days bolstered the case against lynching you first. :)
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1461 on: June 25, 2012, 01:12:04 pm »

Dsell, I can't believe you weren't mafia after what happened between you and me!!!
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1462 on: June 25, 2012, 01:15:54 pm »

Dsell, I can't believe you weren't mafia after what happened between you and me!!!

I'm so sorry. I really felt bad. XD

The thing is I tooootally called you being mafia in MII. Almost right away. And you played so brilliantly in the rest of the game that it was too scary for me to ignore when I got almost the exact same vibe from you in MIII.

I was telling the truth when I said I was confused and glad when the mafia killed you night 1. I probably would have been gunning for you day 2 as well.  :-\ Lesson learned.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1463 on: June 25, 2012, 01:26:11 pm »

Ha ha, it's ok. I was actually way more certain you were mafia after I died. You seemed way too rehearsed about it: "Oh look, I was wrong, moving on..."

If only y'all had listened to me about Eevee on Day 1. Too much humor and feigned innocence.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1464 on: June 25, 2012, 08:30:53 pm »

Oh man the last couple days were stressful for me. eHal seemed to be SO suspicious of me but his arguments were weak or wrong on almost all counts. But I couldn't defend myself like a madman either!! So I was just grinning and bearing it. That's what you get with a confirmed townie: analysis that is important but not necessarily accurate. No offense to you eHal, you played a great game aside from that, especially with your crucial late game jails, they were spot on. Also interesting that unlike many others, I had a pretty good town read on you 90% of the game.

Great game to ALL players (I really, really thought the mafia were going to sweep) and a huge shout out to Insomniac for moderating.  ;D

No offense taken!  But if there was a good way to defend, you should have taken it.  And if there wasn't, then my arguments weren't so weak. ;)

The thing about my playstyle is that I like to consider as many possibilities as I can think of.  I entertained the idea of Godfather O for quite a while, even though it was unlikely.  And you really were pretty scummy, especially early on.  The association with both Eevee and Volt on day 1 didn't help, although some falling out between you guys on subsequent days bolstered the case against lynching you first. :)

I really wish I was godfather O, that would have been pretty damn epic..
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1465 on: June 25, 2012, 08:35:34 pm »

I warmed to your playstyle in this game eventually, O. This post made me just crack up:

*checks role PM*

Nope. Still mafia godfather Vanilla Townie.

No really, jokes aside I'm steadfastly standing by my VT claim.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1466 on: June 25, 2012, 08:39:06 pm »

I warmed to your playstyle in this game eventually, O. This post made me just crack up:

*checks role PM*

Nope. Still mafia godfather Vanilla Townie.

No really, jokes aside I'm steadfastly standing by my VT claim.

Wait, did I do that before or after Ehaly proposed the Godfather theory?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1467 on: June 25, 2012, 08:41:02 pm »

I warmed to your playstyle in this game eventually, O. This post made me just crack up:

*checks role PM*

Nope. Still mafia godfather Vanilla Townie.

No really, jokes aside I'm steadfastly standing by my VT claim.

Wait, did I do that before or after Ehaly proposed the Godfather theory?
I think it was after.

.. and oh yeah O, I hope there is no bad blood between us now. Only "attacked" you in the interest of mafia you know :)
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1468 on: June 25, 2012, 08:48:37 pm »

I warmed to your playstyle in this game eventually, O. This post made me just crack up:

*checks role PM*

Nope. Still mafia godfather Vanilla Townie.

No really, jokes aside I'm steadfastly standing by my VT claim.

Wait, did I do that before or after Ehaly proposed the Godfather theory?
I think it was after.

.. and oh yeah O, I hope there is no bad blood between us now. Only "attacked" you in the interest of mafia you know :)

Of course there's none. and we still need to match at some point (my life's been quite hectic recently)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1469 on: June 26, 2012, 06:11:36 am »

I warmed to your playstyle in this game eventually, O. This post made me just crack up:

*checks role PM*

Nope. Still mafia godfather Vanilla Townie.

No really, jokes aside I'm steadfastly standing by my VT claim.

Wait, did I do that before or after Ehaly proposed the Godfather theory?
I think it was after.

.. and oh yeah O, I hope there is no bad blood between us now. Only "attacked" you in the interest of mafia you know :)

Of course there's none. and we still need to match at some point (my life's been quite hectic recently)
Thats okay, I'm on basicly every day, just PM me when you have time.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1470 on: July 10, 2012, 03:30:35 am »

eHal, I'm probably stupid but I could never figure out your hint-dropping, even with those hints. How did you do it?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1471 on: July 10, 2012, 03:40:00 am »

eHal, I'm probably stupid but I could never figure out your hint-dropping, even with those hints. How did you do it?
He spelled out "JAILKEEPER" with the first letter of each paragraph starting on page 9.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1472 on: July 10, 2012, 03:45:20 am »

eHal, I'm probably stupid but I could never figure out your hint-dropping, even with those hints. How did you do it?
He spelled out "JAILKEEPER" with the first letter of each paragraph starting on page 9.

Aha! I AM stupid! ;D

I had looked at the first letter of all of his posts to see if he spelled it out, didn't think about paragraphs.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1473 on: July 10, 2012, 03:53:51 am »

eHal, I'm probably stupid but I could never figure out your hint-dropping, even with those hints. How did you do it?
He spelled out "JAILKEEPER" with the first letter of each paragraph starting on page 9.

Aha! I AM stupid! ;D

I had looked at the first letter of all of his posts to see if he spelled it out, didn't think about paragraphs.

I can't believe he put in the effort to do that at all... ???
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #1474 on: July 10, 2012, 10:32:09 am »

I really don't like the random voting by either O or Morgrim.  By randomly voting, you remove yourself from the decision process.  If the lynch goes through and they turn up Town, you can curse fate and keep the blame off of yourself.  You can't be accused of targeting the unlucky player because it was random.  And that tells the town nothing.

If you are town, you should be picking a target based on SOME sort of reasoning.  Something strange the player said.  Their post count.  Their post quality.  Even an inexplicable gut instinct is better than random voting.  It lets the town know that you're at least trying to identify the Mafia.

Tthis post actually means he spelt JAILKEEIIPER
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #1475 on: July 10, 2012, 11:02:14 am »

I really don't like the random voting by either O or Morgrim.  By randomly voting, you remove yourself from the decision process.  If the lynch goes through and they turn up Town, you can curse fate and keep the blame off of yourself.  You can't be accused of targeting the unlucky player because it was random.  And that tells the town nothing.

If you are town, you should be picking a target based on SOME sort of reasoning.  Something strange the player said.  Their post count.  Their post quality.  Even an inexplicable gut instinct is better than random voting.  It lets the town know that you're at least trying to identify the Mafia.

Tthis post actually means he spelt JAILKEEIIPER

Well, nobody is perfect! He said he messed it up. ;)
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

def

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #1476 on: August 09, 2012, 03:14:59 pm »

...

Almost comically, after my last post here being about how real life may interfere in posting habits, it really interfered big in mine. Let's just say that I had some serious personal issues during which I didn't had the time or even thought to say "oh hey, I have this important mafia game on that forum, I have to inform them."
Anyway, with things finally sorted out now, I at least wanted to say that I didn't drop out for no reason, even if I'm not telling you the reason. I hope it didn't destroy the whole game - skimming through the thread and seeing that town won, it doesn't look like it, though.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #1477 on: August 09, 2012, 04:20:27 pm »

I'm not telling you the reason
I'll assume you either won the lottery, were ravaged by rabid rodents, or were arrested for a Dominion related ponzi scheme.

In any case, welcome back!
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
« Reply #1478 on: August 09, 2012, 04:48:11 pm »

Could be all 3.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #1479 on: August 09, 2012, 05:18:46 pm »

I'll assume you either won the lottery, were ravaged by rabid rodents, or were arrested for a Dominion related ponzi scheme.
Could be all 3.
Drawing a hand of 5 Rats could indeed be all 3.
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