Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[shraeye]

Wait, how on earth would 'a select few' claiming give us knowledge as to whether there are multiple factions or not?

This is one of the reasons my vote is staying with Insomniac

P(no mafia)=0.044, because there's 9 mafia roles counting the spy.

Oh, I guess I didn't realize what spy meant.  This changes calculations, but another post with useless numbers is not helpful.  Still, math is fun.  I'll probably work it out at some point out of curiosity.

So what we really calculate is P(mafia AND werewolf) supposing that Major Arcana are not aligned with those factions, and cayvie did not rebalance regardless of results. 

Cayvie said she would rebalance if it was obviously imbalanced.

Yeah, both those suppositions are things that I think are not true.  But there's no way to calculate probability that cayvie found something unbalanced, so for theoretical numbers this is a necessary assumption.  Also, This is a question that I've been asking myself as well.  How do we even select the few that claim??

Wait, how on earth would 'a select few' claiming give us knowledge as to whether there are multiple factions or not?

[shraeye]

Why does Galz have 4 votes on him?  O ragevoted him after his direct questions, then mentioned Lie Detector roles.  Angrybirds voted for him

because he is playing just like a person who wants us to think he is town

Axxle voted possibly just because 2 people had already voted?

Vote Count
Galzria (2): O, angrybirds

Sure

Vote: Galzria

Then ftl voted to get a bandwagon started, but also mentioned Galz was scummy.

Well, one way to get things going is to start a wagon. Vote: Galzria . Because he's scummy.

I guess Morgrim mentioned that Galz looked real scummy because

He's been awfully quiet, (something he doesn't normally do) and when he does say something, its like this:

I apologize for the delay. I'm trying to get caught up everywhere but I'm exhausted. I see I have 4 votes on me? Exciting times! Still, those of you waiting for answers will need to wait a little bit longer. I need to catch some Zzz's (and trust me, they've been elusive). Luckily, other games should be moving into Night soon, so I should have time to catch up on all (...8? >.>) pages here tomorrow.

Is this the reason that he looked scummy to you ftl?  Or was it really just because you wanted there to be a bandwagon?  What was the reason for your vote, Axxle?  Is there really something to that Lie Detector role?  I wonder if there's something I've missed but I have only the neutralest of reads on Galz so far.  Hey Galz, post more!

[shraeye]

O, post more! I haven't heard from you in 3.5 days!
sharkbait, post more! I haven't heard from you in 3 days!
sparky, post more!
Robz, post more!
Eevee, post more!
angrybirds, post more!
You all have only 7 posts by my count.  And actually sharkbait has only 5.

Galz!! Respond to angrybirds!

i am going to vote:Galzeria because he is playing just like a person who wants us to think he is town

i am going to keep my vote on him   at least until he responds and i can see a little bit more of him before i change my mind about anything

[Voltgloss]

Galzria just died in M-VII, so he may have more time to post here now.  He was also V/LA over the weekend.

cayvie, could you please prod O and shark_bait?  Thanks.

[Galzria]

Right-O!

Well, there's surprisingly little to respond TO for having 4 votes on me (5 now with Morgrim?). Points of interest that pop into my head for what I do see pertaining to me:

#1: My rapid fire posts were my first of the game. They were serious in that seeing different reactions is always interesting, if not always informing. Out of them all, I thought Shraeye's response of "What's this, I don't even..." Was the most strange, since it really was a simple yes/no question.

As my first posts though, they were essentially there for RVS purposes... I wanted to have fun. Unlike others, I don't jump in going votevotevotevote for completely frivolous purposes. Asking directed (albeit mostly pointless) questions is much more entertaining to me. O's response was quite frankly hilarious, especially because he raged over my supposed unsubtle attempt to play a role that isn't even listed as being in the game.

All that said, yeah, they were serious. I would personally find the non-answer over such a ridiculous question to be scummy. The fact that each in turn was answerable by a simple "No, I'm not" was irrelevant.

#2: I'm looking like someone who wants to appear town... Well, sure. I mean, I'm not playing with the goal of saying "look at me! I'm town!", but certainly wanting to appear town is not exactly a scumtell.

Personally I believe that "naturally" looking like town is infinitely easier for scum, who come into the game with a certain amount of confidence that their "reads" can never exactly be wrong. Town members on the other hand look around and see potential scum in every player on the list. Because of this, there's an inherent desire to want to be trusted and it comes across as unnatural. It's a large part of the reason f.DS has yet to lynch Mafia D1. Town just looks so much more uncomfortable, and thus scummy.

This changes somewhat in a multi-faction setup, as the scumteams no longer have absolute information over the town. M-VI is probably a good perusal for how scumfactions interact (even if they did play terribly there). It's not exactly light reading however.

#3: I was quiet because I was on V/LA all weekend. My post count across all games was significantly reduced to almost nill, and the games that I did take the time to post in were on deadlines. I don't think Morgrim was alive in any of those games, and I don't believe he's followed here or the V/LA thread closely enough to know that I was actually gone. So from that perspective at least his vote on me seems like it actually has merit (compared to Axxle and ftl, who seem to have voted for me because....?).

I'll be reviewing the thread fully later and posting my thoughts on events up to date and others this afternoon. If there is some big case that I've failed to address above, feel free to let me know.

[shark_bait]

Sorry guys.  Just catching up, weekend was busier than expected.  And honestly, I'm still at a loss for how to effectively scumhunt on D1.

[Voltgloss]

And honestly, I'm still at a loss for how to effectively scumhunt on D1.

Stop worrying about "effectively" scumhunting.  Just worry about "scumhunting."  You don't know if it's effective or not until you're actually doing it and see people's reactions.  And gauging those reactions is how you learn to sharpen your scumhunting efforts.

The only absolutely certain way to "ineffectively" scumhunt is to not try to do it at all.  I.e., to lurk.

[jotheonah]

Scumbag back-up mod missed the memo on the separate thread and didn't know the game had started. Just posting here so this will show up on my "New Replies." Carry on.

Vote Count
Morgrim7 (1): Captain_Frisk
shark_bait (1): yuma
Galzria (4): O, angrybirds, Axxle, ftl
Insomniac (3): shraeye, Voltgloss, Morgrim7
Captain_Frisk (1): ehunt

with 16 alive, it's 9 to lynch.

[Robz888]

Personally I believe that "naturally" looking like town is infinitely easier for scum, who come into the game with a certain amount of confidence that their "reads" can never exactly be wrong. Town members on the other hand look around and see potential scum in every player on the list. Because of this, there's an inherent desire to want to be trusted and it comes across as unnatural. It's a large part of the reason f.DS has yet to lynch Mafia D1. Town just looks so much more uncomfortable, and thus scummy.

This changes somewhat in a multi-faction setup, as the scumteams no longer have absolute information over the town. M-VI is probably a good perusal for how scumfactions interact (even if they did play get terribly unlucky there). It's not exactly light reading however.

FTFY.

But other than that, I agree with this sentiment.

I for one need to post more in this game. Actually I'm not even sure who's in this game. Doesn't look to me like there's been much serious analysis. The fact that I've skated by not posting like at all is probably not a good sign. Anyway, I'll try to review and post some thoughts soon.

[Axxle]

#2: I'm looking like someone who wants to appear town... Well, sure. I mean, I'm not playing with the goal of saying "look at me! I'm town!", but certainly wanting to appear town is not exactly a scumtell.

Overly wanting to appear doing pro-town things, without actually doing pro-town things, is a scumtell though.

[ftl]

(compared to Axxle and ftl, who seem to have voted for me because....?).

Yeah, pretty much... I wanted to poke you and get some reaction, not having realized that Axxle did it first a few posts earlier. Of course, then you went away and gave no reaction, and after like days of sitting there at 4 votes it doesn't seem like pressure at all.

[sparky5856]

sparky, post more!

Heh. I actually think I've been doing rather well so far, I'm proud of myself for being as active as I have been haha. I've waited all day Sunday for replies with barely any (I did respond to shraeye's concerns about the math), and then as I go to sleep the thread explodes with over a page of posts.

One theory that I developed over the years that may be completely bonkers is that longer posts = pro-town. It means that you're putting more effort into protecting the good guys. With mafia, it's hard to do that. Moreover, if mafia just try to disprove anyone whenever the opportunity presents itself, instead of putting their thoughts into one specific issue (because maybe it makes them look uncomfortable? the heart of the issue is that they're mafia maybe?), it gives them more room into faking innocence. Someone who fits this bill perfectly, is Axxle. His posts seem to be all over the map, and they don't add much. Perhaps he always plays like that? And I have yet to see him answer this question:

I guess Morgrim mentioned that Galz looked real scummy because

He's been awfully quiet, (something he doesn't normally do) and when he does say something, its like this:

I apologize for the delay. I'm trying to get caught up everywhere but I'm exhausted. I see I have 4 votes on me? Exciting times! Still, those of you waiting for answers will need to wait a little bit longer. I need to catch some Zzz's (and trust me, they've been elusive). Luckily, other games should be moving into Night soon, so I should have time to catch up on all (...8? >.>) pages here tomorrow.

Is this the reason that he looked scummy to you ftl?  Or was it really just because you wanted there to be a bandwagon?  What was the reason for your vote, Axxle?  Is there really something to that Lie Detector role?  I wonder if there's something I've missed but I have only the neutralest of reads on Galz so far.  Hey Galz, post more!

shark_bait has contributed almost nothing to the scumhunting. He mentions that it's hard to do on Day 1. Well, doesn't mean we shouldn't try, right? I've seen plenty of games where scum was nailed Day 1.

Ditto for Robz888, although he's realized that this is bad for him.

Doesn't look to me like there's been much serious analysis.

Hey, I've been trying to seriously analyze 

If you all were looking for my reaction to Galzria... I'm inconclusive so far. It really didn't look like he was pressured after 4 votes. He does mention this which I find important:

Personally I believe that "naturally" looking like town is infinitely easier for scum, who come into the game with a certain amount of confidence that their "reads" can never exactly be wrong. Town members on the other hand look around and see potential scum in every player on the list. Because of this, there's an inherent desire to want to be trusted and it comes across as unnatural. It's a large part of the reason f.DS has yet to lynch Mafia D1. Town just looks so much more uncomfortable, and thus scummy.

So, according to this, we should go for who appears to be the most comfortable and on top of the game? Right now shraeye sticks out in my mind for this, but he's been putting too much effort into his posts to make me believe that he is scum. He's putting too much effort into the scumhunting to be scum himself. Someone else who appears comfortable... is Galzria himself? Trying to cover yourself, even implicitly, seem like a scum-tell in my opinion. I don't think he would have said that (and I think he would have had a different reaction to his votes) if he was mafia. Now I'm leaning Galzria more towards the clean side.

Actually, Galzria has been acting pretty comfortable the whole game:

Quote from: O on August 09, 2012, 11:24:53 pm
Quote from: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 10:15:57 pm
Frisk, I need to know up front, are you scum?

Quote from: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 10:18:06 pm
Shraeye, are you a Serial Killer?

Quote from: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 10:16:51 pm
Volt, are you a Werewolf?

Quote from: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 10:17:14 pm
Axxle, are you Mafia?

Quote from: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 11:12:32 pm
They were all serious. I haven't heard from Volt or CF yet.

eHunt, want to answer for your Mafia buddy?
Eevee, what about you? Who are you planning on NK'ing for your faction kill?


YOU'RE NOT SUBTLE. WHY CAN'T YOU BE SUBTLE FOR ONE GODDAMN GAME IN YOUR LIFE

RAGEVOTE: GALZRIA

*yawn*

That strikes me as "oh wow, this raging over me is quite pointless. Because I know who I am. And it's not scum."

Maybe I'm reading too much into things. At least I'm going after players now.

PS Insomniac has three votes, not two. 

[jotheonah]

I have no idea what you're talking about

[cayvie]

Galzria just died in M-VII, so he may have more time to post here now.  He was also V/LA over the weekend.

cayvie, could you please prod O and shark_bait?  Thanks.

i was giving people a little extra time because of the weekend

[ftl]

sparky, post more!

Heh. I actually think I've been doing rather well so far, I'm proud of myself for being as active as I have been haha. I've waited all day Sunday for replies with barely any (I did respond to shraeye's concerns about the math), and then as I go to sleep the thread explodes with over a page of posts.

One theory that I developed over the years that may be completely bonkers is that longer posts = pro-town. It means that you're putting more effort into protecting the good guys. With mafia, it's hard to do that.

Hah! For me, it felt like the other way around. When I was mafia, I felt like I'd write long screeds, because I'd have to double-check everything and make sure my words were solid and didn't have anything that could be misinterpreted as a scumslip and so on.

Whereas as town, I'm much more okay with just throwing out a short post saying something, because I know I won't accidentally reveal myself as scum because I'm not!

It might be a personality thing.

Is this the reason that he looked scummy to you ftl?

Nah, my vote was before that. I wanted to start something going because wagon analyzing feels so much more refreshing than analyzing wording. But, well, Galz never responded quickly so I didn't get a chance to argue around with him or anything.

  Or was it really just because you wanted there to be a bandwagon?  What was the reason for your vote, Axxle?  Is there really something to that Lie Detector role?

Not unless it's a Major Arcana, we know it's not one of the standard ones from the suits, cayvie posted all of those.

  I wonder if there's something I've missed but I have only the neutralest of reads on Galz so far.  Hey Galz, post more!

Don't worry, he will

I've seen plenty of games where scum was nailed Day 1.

How did they doooooooo it we've never had that yet here on f.ds

Personally I believe that "naturally" looking like town is infinitely easier for scum, who come into the game with a certain amount of confidence that their "reads" can never exactly be wrong. Town members on the other hand look around and see potential scum in every player on the list. Because of this, there's an inherent desire to want to be trusted and it comes across as unnatural. It's a large part of the reason f.DS has yet to lynch Mafia D1. Town just looks so much more uncomfortable, and thus scummy.

So, according to this, we should go for who appears to be the most comfortable and on top of the game?

It's sad because it feels like a reverse policy lynch, you lynch whoever knows what they're talking about and you're left with like the lurkers and Morgrim and the rest of the lost people. It might work better than what we've been doing here on f.ds but if feels so wrong...


...I'm still waiting for a response from Insomniac about his "select few claiming" thing. I suspect, given that last paragraph and last quote, that should be a towntell rather than a scumtell at this point in f.ds meta.

[Axxle]

And I have yet to see him answer this question:

I guess Morgrim mentioned that Galz looked real scummy because

He's been awfully quiet, (something he doesn't normally do) and when he does say something, its like this:

I apologize for the delay. I'm trying to get caught up everywhere but I'm exhausted. I see I have 4 votes on me? Exciting times! Still, those of you waiting for answers will need to wait a little bit longer. I need to catch some Zzz's (and trust me, they've been elusive). Luckily, other games should be moving into Night soon, so I should have time to catch up on all (...8? >.>) pages here tomorrow.

Is this the reason that he looked scummy to you ftl?  Or was it really just because you wanted there to be a bandwagon?  What was the reason for your vote, Axxle?  Is there really something to that Lie Detector role?  I wonder if there's something I've missed but I have only the neutralest of reads on Galz so far.  Hey Galz, post more!

#2: I'm looking like someone who wants to appear town... Well, sure. I mean, I'm not playing with the goal of saying "look at me! I'm town!", but certainly wanting to appear town is not exactly a scumtell.

Overly wanting to appear doing pro-town things, without actually doing pro-town things, is a scumtell though.

[O]

Hi guys.

Yea I didn't *actually* realize that lie detector wasn't in the game... except maybe as major arcana, but whatever.

vote: voltgloss because my galzria vote sucks and... yea.. HOW DARE YOU PROD ME!!! I WILL DESTROY YOU!!!

[O]

I'm breaking so many rules by doing this but...

post moar

3:56:31
3:55:17

U MAD, CAYVIE?

[cayvie]

lol

[yuma]

Hi.

I am waiting to hear more from sharkbait before I do much else.

And morgrim... That wasn't what I was looking for. I am asking why you don't contribute. Do you have so little faith in your own reads on people that you can only piggyback on the reads of others. I really want to hear more. If you agree with someone tell us why you agree before voting. If you think someone is mafia tell us why before voting. This game thrives in content and context. You provide neither.

I am not posting this as demands to change or else I will vote. Instead I am asking if you can post more to lessen the confusion you add to the game and instead shed some light into it

[ftl]

I had a post here about Morgrim, but I deleted it, as Morgrim is a pertinent topic of current conversation in the Murder Mystery Mafia.

[ftl]

Let's not talk about Morgrim.

[Insomniac]

I had a post here about Morgrim, but I deleted it, as Morgrim is a pertinent topic of current conversation in the Murder Mystery Mafia.

uhh you deleted a post?

[Eevee]

Surprising people writing these walls of text I must say! Much respect.

What can I say, as per usual, the active and talkative guys appear town to me. I suspect playing like I have thus far (not posting much and drawing zero attention) is exceptionally favorable for mafia in this game, because it's so huge it's very easy to blend in. In smaller games, I think lurkers often get called out when the active guys lynch the one or two guys who seem scummy and start realizing "wait.. all of these active guys sort of look towny to me" and then there is almost nothing the lurker can do. Well, here we have so so many people, that there is always going to be someone active that accidentally says something others interpret as scummy and then its easy for the lurkers to quietly steer the town towards lynching them.
On the other hand, multiple scum factions means even scum has an incentive to scumhunt, they only have to lie about their teammates.

After the catastrophes with Gazria in murder mystery (still ongoing but both me and Galz are dead there) and with eHalc in VI, I have pretty much resigned from trying to form reads day 1. It is frustrating, I know lurking is bad for town, but if I try to scumhunt, I'll just end up finding no one scummy and trusting the active guys, then I'll get called out for doing that again and you lynch me, which is very anti-town seeing how I am town. So.. I do not know. Also, following a game with this many players is haaard.

Shraeye and ftl look towny to me, but what else is new? Oh and fwiw, shark_bait is hc lurking in mafia VII (still ongoing so we dont know his alignment there but still makes lurking here less damning, he's probably just irl busy).

[ftl]

I meant I deleted it when I was previewing it. I didn't post it.