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[cayvie]

Surely metagame scum play is nearly as good a policy lynch as lynch all liars

[Galzria]

Surely metagame scum play is nearly as good a policy lynch as lynch all liars

Is it though? He had the same odds as everyone else at gamestart to roll scum, so a policy lynch is exactly equal to the odds of a random lynch - which is shooting ourselves in the foot of the one thing that town can use to outweigh the advantages Mafia have: information.

That said, our f.DS D1 lynches have been woefully below average...

[cayvie]

Surely metagame scum play is nearly as good a policy lynch as lynch all liars

Is it though? He had the same odds as everyone else at gamestart to roll scum, so a policy lynch is exactly equal to the odds of a random lynch - which is shooting ourselves in the foot of the one thing that town can use to outweigh the advantages Mafia have: information.

That said, our f.DS D1 lynches have been woefully below average...

that's the point of policy lynches.

they're not designed to find scum; they're designed to discourage play that hurts the game.

[theorel]

The problem is that it intentionally forms a style of meta-game that ultimately is designed to hide scum play. That's not to say he IS scum, but that he will play the same way each time so that when he DOES roll scum there's no discernible difference and a precedence has been set for this style equating to town.

I think in the end it's anti-town play because what he's really playing for is to benefit his next scum role (be it in this game or a future one). Whether that merits a lynch is an entirely different question...

Everyone plays a metagame which tries to benefit their scum role.  Whether that's Galzria changing up his play, O's trolling, pops' silence, Morgrim's insanity, or my own attempts to be helpful.  All of us try to play each game in a way so that when we're scum we'll be able to "blend in" with our normal play, and using whatever benefits our normal play can gain us to be better scum players.  If you build up a reputation as a strong pro-town player, people will be hesitant to lynch you because hey, you were so helpful last time you were town.  If you build up a reputation as a poor town player, people will be hesitant to lynch you when you play poorly because, well that's just how you play.  Lynching someone for their metagame strategy is simply poor play, regardless of how you slice it.  You're basically saying, "I don't like it when people play this way, lynch him".  I think you can find better lynch targets.

---
Anyways, as far as RVS goes, if you want to challenge pops' play so far as scummy that's fine.  But suggesting that we lynch him because he always plays this way is silly.  In fact, I'm still interested in why pops suggested Insomniac forgot something, because looking at Insomniac's post at the top of the last page does not clarify for me at all.  It's talking about mistakes not forgetfulness.  Maybe if he meant cayvie...that would make more sense, and fits with what happened much better.

If that's right, then what we actually have here is: cayvie calls out 3 non-posters: yuma, pops, and Insomniac.  Insomniac notes that he has in fact been posting.  yuma ignores it.  And pops suggests that Insomniac(should be cayvie?) is scummy for forgetting something.  I request clarification, ehunt dismisses it, and cayvie suggests it's scummy, followed by ehunt changing his mind.  Galzria notes that this is common pops play, and cayvie advances the idea that we should policy-lynch him.

A lot there depends on if cayvie thought that pops was in fact calling her out.

So, first I would like clarification from pops...what did Insomniac forget, or was it cayvie that forgot, and you got confused?

Anyways, the actual substance of this interaction is much more useful for analysis than pops' metagame strategy.

[Captain_Frisk]

Questionaire:

1) Who do you think is the scummiest?
2) Who do you think we should lynch?
3) If you are a townie, what was yesterday?
4) (scum only + possible vig) who are you planning on killing tonight?

1) you or pops probably - based on your intentionally scummy metagame play as discussed by others previously.  I'd say that ehunt / theorel are the least scummy right now on account of the simulation work
2) Right now I'd lynch lekkit for having posted 3 times with 0 content, and 1 of those posts was signing up
3) Tuesday?
4) Stop rolefishing - but with night killing powers I'd be tempted to kill you as M3 payback.

[Eevee]

The problem is that it intentionally forms a style of meta-game that ultimately is designed to hide scum play. That's not to say he IS scum, but that he will play the same way each time so that when he DOES roll scum there's no discernible difference and a precedence has been set for this style equating to town.

I think in the end it's anti-town play because what he's really playing for is to benefit his next scum role (be it in this game or a future one). Whether that merits a lynch is an entirely different question...

Everyone plays a metagame which tries to benefit their scum role.

I disagree. I myself try to be as helpful to the town as possible when town, and then fake that behavior to best of my abilities when I'm scum. I think most of us play that way? After all, we do draw town more often than we draw scum.

[theorel]

The problem is that it intentionally forms a style of meta-game that ultimately is designed to hide scum play. That's not to say he IS scum, but that he will play the same way each time so that when he DOES roll scum there's no discernible difference and a precedence has been set for this style equating to town.

I think in the end it's anti-town play because what he's really playing for is to benefit his next scum role (be it in this game or a future one). Whether that merits a lynch is an entirely different question...

Everyone plays a metagame which tries to benefit their scum role.

I disagree. I myself try to be as helpful to the town as possible when town, and then fake that behavior to best of my abilities when I'm scum. I think most of us play that way? After all, we do draw town more often than we draw scum.

I suppose I overstated then, I'll change it to: any metagame strategy can be used to benefit a scum role.  From my perspective, I essentially play that way, but I do it to benefit myself whether playing as scum or town.  The point is that I think it's easier for me to fake consistently helpful behavior, and that such behavior makes me more trustworthy.  So when I draw scum, I can keep appearing helpful, and hopefully draw decent town trust.  That is my meta-strategy.  I personally think it's a superior strategy (else why would I pursue it?).  But I'm not going to lynch pops just because he has a different strategy. 

As pops himself noted: O was caught out in spite of attempting a generally scummy meta-strategy.  I'm of the opinion that pops is just as susceptible to actually doing scummy things that make him suspicious.

[ehunt]

Promised pops post:

I don't think we should policy lynch pops for his playstyle.

 I do think Pops's mistake is very scummy.

 Background for those catching up:

Cayvie mistakenly accuses Insomniac of lurking in 192 (Cayvie said Insomniac hadn't posted in 75 hours, which was false).

Insomniac calls out Cayvie's mistake in 193. Insomniac and eevee argue about whether the mistake is a scumtell.

In 198, Cayvie says, do you really think this mistake is scummy?

In 199, Insomniac answers, quoting Cayvie, that, eh, no, not really.

Now, go back and read post 199 while ignoring the context. If you do, it appears that Cayvie has accused Insomniac of a mistake and he is defending himself. This was pops's misreading which caused his mistaken post 219. He argues that "insomniac's forgetfulness" is a scumtell.

Now, I don't think mistakes in the abstract are scumtells, and I don't think hypocrisy is a scumtell. I also don't think "failure to follow the game closely" is a scumtell. But I do get a scum read off this particular instance. When you only post once in a while, especially if you are pops and you appeal to your own cred a lot, if you call someone out as scummy, it's a big deal. Since pops is lurking, he misreads the conversation - that could happen to anyone - but using the conversation to raise suspicion of someone whom it's safe to argue against (from pops' perspective, because he mistakenly thinks there's already a line of argument against Insomniac) - that's scummy.

[ehunt]

@Frisk I don't think writing the code makes me or theorel any less suspicious; it's just IIoA taken to a new extreme. I would certainly have written it anyway if I were mafia. I might not would have pasted it to town, but then again I might would've because someone else would probably anyway and the differences in strategy outcomes were so small. I can't speak for theorel but I imagine he feels the same way.

[Eevee]

Vote: Pops
I think ehunt might be onto something.

[ehunt]

hang on, fear of accidental hammer (at least morgrim isn't around), pops hasn't unvoted himself yet. unvote till he does.

[Robz888]

hang on, fear of accidental hammer (at least morgrim isn't around), pops hasn't unvoted himself yet. unvote till he does.

Are we that close to killing Pops already? I agree with you about Pops' misreading of the Insomniac-Cayvie situation being problematic, but obviously we shouldn't kill him right now, before he even responds, so early in the day.

[timchen]

question to ehunt and theorel: if you were mafia would you decide to play randomly then?

[ehunt]

I was overly concerned, there's plenty of room on the wagon. vote: pops

UNOFFICIAL VOTE COUNT


theorel (1): Captain_Frisk
popsofctown(5): popsofctown, Insomniac, yuma, eevee, ehunt
Yuma(1): cayvie

[ehunt]

question to ehunt and theorel: if you were mafia would you decide to play randomly then?

I think in practice it is more or less impossible to play randomly, but with only one power role and 3 on 13, yeah, I doubt I could come up with a strategy that beats chance and the data suggests chance is best (in theorel's revised data with all the power roles, the game is much more balanced btw).

[timchen]

I thought it is only more balanced with 2-shot vigs? (and that actually is very surprising to me)

[theorel]

question to ehunt and theorel: if you were mafia would you decide to play randomly then?

No.
1. as noted by ehunt, adding extra power roles improved town win-chance.  I'll assume that the set-ups we use are relatively balanced until given reason to believe otherwise.

2. Playing randomly doesn't work in practice.  The model uses a fully random town.  Even if I choose my targets at random, that doesn't mean the lynch-choice is actually random, so the model doesn't get us anywhere.  The best I could manage would be to choose someone at random to build a case against, but then I still need to build a case, because otherwise town knows I'm playing random which potentially benefits scum.  So, the only available random choice is who to shoot, and a big part of the model was that that wasn't actually random, it preferred revealed town.  I would shoot revealed town, or nearly-cleared town as scum; I think I showed this in MVI when we shot jo rather than try to hit the other scum-team (and I still hold that it was actually the ideal strategy for scum that game, ehunt's prisoner dilemma was incorrectly applied IMO, competing was less-advantageous than he made it seem).

[theorel]

I thought it is only more balanced with 2-shot vigs? (and that actually is very surprising to me)

I only tried 2-shot vig, 1-shot cop, IC combo.  I'm not sure how Tracker/jailkeeper would influence it.

[yuma]

When I saw 5 on pops I almost unvoted, but I won't unvote him until he unvotes himself, or until there is someone better to vote for. If he wants to be part of a self-lynch fine... Let him.

[Grujah]

ehunt, I think this is more correct.


theorel (1): Captain_Frisk
popsofctown(4): popsofctown, yuma, Eevee, ehunt
cayvie (1): Insomniac
yuma(1): cayvie

Not voting(6): timchen, yuma, Robz888, Galzria, Lekkit O

With 13 alive it take 7 to lynch.

[Insomniac]

I'm not on pops am I?

PPE: ninjas by grujah.

unvote no reason to be on cayvie

[timchen]

@theorel: playing random I meant just playing as town at day. This is certainly doable. That is, you forget you have those partners, and do not consciously save them or bus them. You still build a case based on what you read. This way the town gets no information from their lynches. And random lynch target should be a good approximation.

[Eevee]

@theorel: playing random I meant just playing as town at day. This is certainly doable. That is, you forget you have those partners, and do not consciously save them or bus them. You still build a case based on what you read. This way the town gets no information from their lynches. And random lynch target should be a good approximation.

I think this is easier said than done. I tend to play scum sort of like this IRL, in that especially day 1 I try to forget who my scum mates are because the concept of giving live reads is just terrifying.

[popsofctown]

pops has not posted in 49 hours.
yuma has not posted in 50 hours.
insomniac has not posted in 75 hours.

Uhh I posted last page TODAY. MULTIPLE TIMES

Vote: Cayvie

Scum doesnt make mistakes like that.

Vote: Insomniac

This is the post I misinterpreted. 

But I wasn't going after Insomniac per se.  I was just taking an opportunity to claim that mistakes, in a vacuum, are scumtells.  It doesn't matter whose mistake it was really, because it's not a massive omg kill it now with fire scumtell, just something for the scorecard.  Someone later made a post saying, "Is Insomniac/cayvie/Winnie the Pooh's mistake a scumtell?" and I wanted to say yes it is.

I do not play a particular playstyle in order to be unlynchable as scum.  I always try to win the game I'm currently playing.  I was very helpful after Day 1 in MIV, and the reason I played a terse, biting style D1 in MIV was genuinely to let people catch up on the thread.

I really have to resent an accusation of having a "deliberately scummy meta" on the basis of a game where I was nightkilled because I was too obvtown by the end.

[theorel]

@theorel: playing random I meant just playing as town at day. This is certainly doable. That is, you forget you have those partners, and do not consciously save them or bus them. You still build a case based on what you read. This way the town gets no information from their lynches. And random lynch target should be a good approximation.

Ah, so you're asking if I would play as though I'm town when scum?  If I could forget everything about my team and fully pretend to be town in order to keep information from town, would I?  Hmm...I don't think so.  I would rather be conscious of my actions.  I don't think it's actually doable to play as town during the day.  You can't call things as you see them, because you know who is scum, and this influences your perceptions of events greatly.  Confirmation bias can make you read legitimate misunderstandings as scummy, if you know who is scum you have a significant confirmation bias playing into all your reads.  Townies fight, you know it's a misunderstanding.  Scum-partner defends himself, you know he's lying. 

Now, you can try to remain impartial, and that I would try to do, in fact I think scum needs to do this, otherwise their arguments will be forced.

Now, for me.  As scum, I try to appear as townie as possible, while getting away with scummy actions when I can.  I fully use the knowledge I have, in order to make those actions.  In other words, I play like I did in MVI.  The multiple teams thing skewed the game somewhat, but it didn't really impact my scum-play.