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[timchen]

Well, on the wagon there are 5 people. Robz is dead. The remaining are shark, Galz, PPS, and me. I am pretty convinced that there should be one scum among the four people, but currently they all give me a town read.

On the other hand, there are three people off the wagon. It is hard to imagine that with 2 scums on the wagon the scum still chose to kill Robz. So there should be at least one scum among the three. As I said, I have some logical reason to believe eevee is not scum. (Again, don't take me wrong, I am not claiming anything.) And that gives me the chance of at least finding 1 scum out of 2 people. Even if you include eevee it gives one out of three.

Try to think this way: why did the scum not kill eevee? eevee is probably the player with strongest town tell after frisk flipped VT. If he is dead and flipped town too, we then do not have any good idea among the rest of players. Of course, the loophole of this argument is that there will then be only two people off the wagon, and if we believe that scum will hedge then we will definitely find one scum. So, Robz's death instead of eevee suggests us to look at the off wagon people.

But of course one simple reason that eevee is not dead is because he is scum. But then you have to explain why he does not want frisk to be lynched at all. And if you go further you may start to see the reason that I am not talking about...

[Young Nick]

Try to think this way: why did the scum not kill eevee? eevee is probably the player with strongest town tell after frisk flipped VT. If he is dead and flipped town too, we then do not have any good idea among the rest of players. Of course, the loophole of this argument is that there will then be only two people off the wagon, and if we believe that scum will hedge then we will definitely find one scum. So, Robz's death instead of eevee suggests us to look at the off wagon people.

Ignoring the little "hint" you give us, let's look at this quoted part. Why kill robz? If two are on the wagon, it seems so unfathomably bad to kill robz, yes. Not to sound all WIFOM-y, but maybe it's the Mafia strategy to do something so terrifically stupid that as a result they are in the clear. Not even something that n00b Mafia would do. They kill a member of their own wagon, making it 2/4. Now, no rightful Mafia pair would do that in their right mind. They must be divided 1-1, or even 0-2 to do such a bold move. It takes heat off of them.

Maybe if they convince town to lynch off the wagon it puts them in a bad light, but still, a D3 lylo is good for them no matter what. They can even double-hammer and maybe get away with it now that Jailkeeper is gone. D3 lylo is a scary prospect for town. No one wants to vote, even if people look scummy as hell.

----

I am not saying this is what happened. But this could be. Let's not ignore this case. We might be walking into lylo if we don't seriously take a look at at least one or two of those four.

[timchen]

Basically what you are saying is WIFOM. I suggest (if you haven't) you can read a bit what ehunt wrote about it.

Yes, it is possible. But the scum can also do lots of different things. Without hurting their own chances. Why would they bother trying this chancy strategy, when they (suppose that both are on the wagon) can, say just NK eevee and watch us questioning the remaining two off-wagonee?

I think it also makes sense to look carefully into the cases if indeed that is the case. If I put myself in your shoes, what I would see as a possible pair among the wagon? (Galzria, PPS) or (Galzria, timchen) is quite unlikely as Galz directly accused us. So it is probably (PPS, timchen) or (Sharkbait, X). The former case is really a gambit of us as we appear to agree a lot in this game. The latter is a bit weird as X would not want Sharkbait to be in the hammering position at all.

And of course because I know I am town so I only need to look at the latter cases. I found this rather unlikely.

The bottomline is I think the probability of 1-1 is really much higher than 2-0. As long as there is at least one scum off wagon we lose nothing looking closer there.

[shark_bait]

I'm feeling very lost with this.  If I seem incilned to trust someone I think well they're just trying to get me to trust them.  I'm curious as to what logical path tc could have for trusting eevee.  Eevee is one of person who' is high up on my suspician list.  When thinking about manda, she seems to be playing a very safe game.  Whether it is because she is scum or because she doesn't want to cause a mislynch... I don't know.  Galz and tc for some reason are flying under my radar.  I don't know if that's because they are town, or because they are doin a really good job of playing scum.  All in all, WIFOM is wreaking havoc with my brain right now and I'm having a difficult time rationalizing decisions of scum/not scum.  Sorry for the incoherance of this post.

[timchen]

@shark, so why do you think mafia eevee so desperately wants us to step away from frisk lynch? Or just, what do you find eevee scummy over all?

[Galzria]

@shark, so why do you think mafia eevee so desperately wants us to step away from frisk lynch? Or just, what do you find eevee scummy over all?

Because Mafia Eevee has no reason to get on-board? The town was going to lynch at the deadline (they always do), and the only two wagons that had any life at that time were CF and me. As both of us are town, why should Eevee bother doing the scummy thing of moving wagons to force a lynch that was highly likely to occur anyway?

[timchen]

But this is WIFOM. In the end no matter what he did (getting on the wagon or not) you can form a case to accuse him.   I don't see how this makes him any scummier than the two other off-wagonee.

What I see is that mafia eevee has no reason to express strong opinion. For one thing, in the slim chance if another townee wagon gets off, he will have a harder time switching back to get frisk. (This is not my hidden reasoning, however.)

[timchen]

While you are here Galz, how do you like manda?

[Eevee]

@shark, so why do you think mafia eevee so desperately wants us to step away from frisk lynch? Or just, what do you find eevee scummy over all?

Because Mafia Eevee has no reason to get on-board? The town was going to lynch at the deadline (they always do), and the only two wagons that had any life at that time were CF and me. As both of us are town, why should Eevee bother doing the scummy thing of moving wagons to force a lynch that was highly likely to occur anyway?

Hmm, were you online at the time? Because I definitely thought it was going to be a nolynch. Thinking I somehow "knew" Frisk was going to get lynched definitely explains why you are suspicious of me, but it's just not a correct assumption.

My strongest townread today is definitely timchen. I still think manda is likely town too, although less so than I did when I said this last time. It has been said that mafia galzria is never sloppy, but he is starting to become my suspect #1 none the less.
Everyone, did you think yesterday was going to end in a nolynch or did you think someone was going to hammer in the end? Especially the people who were online when the actual hammer dropped (not too long before the deadline I think?).

[timchen]

I was under the impression that manda would have come in and hammer if nobody else did. But I would say it looked more certain from the wagoner perspective though (somebody not on the wagon would come in vs. somebody not on the wagon and not me would come in).

So eevee, are you hinting you suspect Galz/YN pairing?

[Eevee]

I was under the impression that manda would have come in and hammer if nobody else did. But I would say it looked more certain from the wagoner perspective though (somebody not on the wagon would come in vs. somebody not on the wagon and not me would come in).

So eevee, are you hinting you suspect Galz/YN pairing?

I tend to have a hard enough time finding mafia, let alone pairs.. But lets just say I wouldnt rule that out. 

The fact I thought we were going to nolynch yesterday might really cloud my judgement about things here though (if others didnt feel the same way that is).

It is still possible mafia had some reason to kill Robz we are not seeing though. I really dont feel good about not looking for lynch targets from the guys that lynched a townie yesterday but rather concentrating on the guys that didnt participate in said lynch, even if I do understand timchens arguments for doing so.

[Young Nick]

My strongest townread today is definitely timchen. I still think manda is likely town too, although less so than I did when I said this last time. It has been said that mafia galzria is never sloppy, but he is starting to become my suspect #1 none the less.

Does this mean you think I am Mafia? You put manda in the clear, and yourself, too, I assume. Or are you a 2-Mafia-on-the-wagon type of guy?

[Eevee]

My strongest townread today is definitely timchen. I still think manda is likely town too, although less so than I did when I said this last time. It has been said that mafia galzria is never sloppy, but he is starting to become my suspect #1 none the less.

Does this mean you think I am Mafia? You put manda in the clear, and yourself, too, I assume. Or are you a 2-Mafia-on-the-wagon type of guy?

I tried to explain this a bit in the part of the post you deleted from the quote.
I dont think we should lock ourselves to thinking "x mafia on the wagon, x mafia off it". Mafia might have had some reason for killing Robz we are not seeing. If I had to quess, I would say 1-1 and I think manda-nick scumpair is super unlikely, but I wouldnt really be surprised if they were both on it and just had some other reason to kill robz (maybe they somehow guessed he had a role, maybe they felt he would come after them day2).
That being said, I do suspect you a good bit, because as timchen said - one explanation for killing robz might be one of the mafia partners was not on the wagon (and I have a slight town read on manda + a very strong town read on myself).

I actually feel this town has a decent chance at hitting mafia today, not a lot of power roles left to claim + yesterdays wagon was pretty informational (to me anyways, maybe not to others as some people seem to think I'm close to #1 suspect even though all I did yesterday was trying to save a townie from getting lynched).

[Young Nick]

My strongest townread today is definitely timchen. I still think manda is likely town too, although less so than I did when I said this last time. It has been said that mafia galzria is never sloppy, but he is starting to become my suspect #1 none the less.

Does this mean you think I am Mafia? You put manda in the clear, and yourself, too, I assume. Or are you a 2-Mafia-on-the-wagon type of guy?

I tried to explain this a bit in the part of the post you deleted from the quote.
I dont think we should lock ourselves to thinking "x mafia on the wagon, x mafia off it". Mafia might have had some reason for killing Robz we are not seeing. If I had to quess, I would say 1-1 and I think manda-nick scumpair is super unlikely, but I wouldnt really be surprised if they were both on it and just had some other reason to kill robz (maybe they somehow guessed he had a role, maybe they felt he would come after them day2).
That being said, I do suspect you a good bit, because as timchen said - one explanation for killing robz might be one of the mafia partners was not on the wagon (and I have a slight town read on manda + a very strong town read on myself).

I actually feel this town has a decent chance at hitting mafia today, not a lot of power roles left to claim + yesterdays wagon was pretty informational (to me anyways, maybe not to others as some people seem to think I'm close to #1 suspect even though all I did yesterday was trying to save a townie from getting lynched).

I understand this. What I am asking is that do you find my play scummy? If so, can you point towards certain parts? Or is it just that you think that you and manda are town, and thus, as a result, I must be scum.

Currently, it looks like you see me as Mafia because I am the only one left off of the wagon after you and manda. Is there anything else? That is the question I am trying to get at.

[timchen]

@eevee: I would like to know why you read manda more town than Young_Nick.

[Young Nick]

@eevee: I would like to know why you read manda more town than Young_Nick.

This.

[Eevee]

Oh sorry I misunderstood your question Nick. Yes, its mostly just process of elimination. "If there is one scum off the wagon, I think its more likely to be Nick than manda". Also, the way people tend to play mafia (at least in the ~5 games I've followed here) has been sort of staying back and not doing anything too special, posting a moderate amount. I think that describes your play in this game pretty well, would you agree?

@timchen (and PPE: apparently Nick too)

Manda's first post of day2:

Okay. Lots to respond to here. Heeeere we go.

Concerning the supposed Robz softclaim, I never noticed anything that made him even seem like a PR, much less an actual softclaim. As far as him saying "don't vote PR," how does that make HIM seem like a PR? Like YN, this theory seems more like confirmation bias to me than anyone else. Obviously we don't want to lynch a PR. Anyone could have said that, and I doubt that's what made the mafia decide to make him their NK. The most plausible theory to me is that they're trying to get rid of the experienced players. This argument makes even more sense to me if one of the mafia IS an experienced player.

That being said, I'd say my suspicion at this point is mostly on Eevee. I don't have any solid analysis yet, I just feel like something about the way he's posting feels off. An example would be him getting really defensive in #733; there's no need to be very defensive if you're town. Like I said, though, I don't have any solid analysis yet, so who knows? My suspicion may change after I go through all his posts tomorrow. But for time being, my suspicion rests there.

More and more, Sharky is feeling like town to me. There was so much suspicion on him yestergameday that if he were mafia I feel like he would have altered his play style somewhat, and it still feels the same to me.

Bolding mine to illustrate the part of the post I'm talking about.

Okay, so, she thinks I'm scummy and shark_bait towny. The general consensus around town day1 was certainly more like the opposite, especially after Frisk flipped town (sharkie was voting for him, I was indomitably trying to save him). So, if she was mafia, I would assume she would go after easier targets. Mafia wants to pick someone they know town already suspects, and try to form a wagon. At the time (this was before Galzria and a few others said they think I'm scummy) I dont think manda saw much of a chance to build an Eevee-wagon, which leads me to think she genuinely thought I was scummy and is not a lying mafia. She didnt even mention anyone else, so it did not feel to me like a mafia trying to lead town to a mislynch but rather like a townie in the dark trying her hardest to think about the game and form an idea of whats going on.

Obviously not like a bulletproof read or anything like that, but a read none the less. Would others agree with the thought process?

[timchen]

good point. I probably need to reevaluate...

[Young Nick]

Oh sorry I misunderstood your question Nick. Yes, its mostly just process of elimination. "If there is one scum off the wagon, I think its more likely to be Nick than manda". Also, the way people tend to play mafia (at least in the ~5 games I've followed here) has been sort of staying back and not doing anything too special, posting a moderate amount. I think that describes your play in this game pretty well, would you agree?

See the first part, the POE, doesn't feel right to me. It is not reason enough. I understand your second point, though. The moderate posting, without anything too crazy. Maybe you guys call it hedging, but I am trying to be careful. My thinking of it is that I am not trying to accuse people who even might be town, because I don't want to commit to a cause that I am not fully behind. Maybe staying on S_B's wagon looks like basic Mafia play because he is an easy target, but I think his play is a level deeper than that. And it is not like he is a trendy vote-ee seeing as you and me are the only two to vote for him.

I probably should post about the relationship you and manda have, but that would require some re-reading prior to doing so.

[pingpongsam]

Call it a placeholder post if you must. My vote stands on manda for reasons posted earlier. I am following today's progress with consideration.

[Eevee]

To clarify about the POE:

As timchen pointed out, unless mafia had some hidden reason to kill robz (and I have twice now suspected they might have, but no one has offered any explanations yet. And it might be something we cant figure out without mafia help, which is sad), it makes sense one of them was off the wagon because they killed someone who was on it, and it would be surprising if they wanted to narrow that field if they were both on it.

So that is the thought process that leads me to think there is a good chance there is one mafia off the wagon, and since I know it isnt me and I have the earlier presented read on manda and your play fits my standard mafia profile, I am suspecting you. Your behaviour during this discussion has looked towny to me.

[Eevee]

Call it a placeholder post if you must. My vote stands on manda for reasons posted earlier. I am following today's progress with consideration.

What do you think of my case for manda being town?

[Young Nick]

To clarify about the POE:

As timchen pointed out, unless mafia had some hidden reason to kill robz (and I have twice now suspected they might have, but no one has offered any explanations yet. And it might be something we cant figure out without mafia help, which is sad), it makes sense one of them was off the wagon because they killed someone who was on it, and it would be surprising if they wanted to narrow that field if they were both on it.

So that is the thought process that leads me to think there is a good chance there is one mafia off the wagon, and since I know it isnt me and I have the earlier presented read on manda and your play fits my standard mafia profile, I am suspecting you. Your behaviour during this discussion has looked towny to me.

I understand what you are saying here. However, I notice that you call manda's play to be pro-town, and now mine is, too. I don't know if you are trying to buddy-up to us, but you realize that only leads us to you, or people who were on the wagon.

It seems like this could be a sly trick to get me and manda even more riled up about looking to people on the wagon, along with your little hints towards it in earlier posts. I don't actually find this scummy; it seems a bit too blatant. I see it more as all three of us being wary of each other, but even more wary of the wagoners who have taken relatively little heat today.

I just want to say that we need to be careful about buddying up. I appreciate your analysis, but obviously even if I have a town read on most of you, I can't consider any of you a friend. I think this especially goes for the three of us off of the wagon.

[Eevee]

I always thought pro-town meant "benefits the town". Is it actually the same as "probtown"?

Manda's play (or rather that one post) just looked to me like something a townie would do. You are still at the top of my suspect list, but I dont want to be one-sided and unfair, during this discussion I think you have acted like I would expect you to act as town. Either of you might still be mafia, I just call them as I see them.

And I definitely think it is possible both of you are town too (and I dont think that would mean I misread my own pm or something). I am writing my thoughts as they come to my head, trying to think of all the scenarios. If nothing else, you can read back what I thought about things if I dont live to see tomorrow.

So: If mafia had no hidden reason to kill robz, I think its most likely it was because one of them was off the wagon. I've given all my reads on both you and manda now, and I think those reads point out to you being scum more likely than her. I dont have any investigative results or spider-powers, just my logic and observations.

[Young Nick]

Well, it's fine that you see me as scummier than manda. There isn't much I can do about it, I figure. You aren't pointing towards specifics, but just general feel. I'm not saying that's a bad thing, but I hope that that alone isn't enough to vote for me. Or maybe you can vote for me for that reason, but that's not enough for multiple people to vote me up to L-1 or anything like that.

Also, you are most likely right in pro-town vs. probtown. I just kind of assumed they were the same; I haven't read all the lingo. I use them interchangeably, but I guess I'll stop that from here on forward.