Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[timchen]

@Young_Nick: Isn't your answer in d) and b) a bit contradictory to each other?

[Galzria]

@Young_Nick: Isn't your answer in d) and b) a bit contradictory to each other?

I was thinking the SAME thing.

[Young Nick]

@Young_Nick: Isn't your answer in d) and b) a bit contradictory to each other?

In a word, yes.

My thought process: When answering b) and when discussing the 0-2/1-1/2-0 before timchen's questions I had not thought about who in particular was on or off the wagon. I was merely considering the possibility of Mafia being on or off the wagon. What I meant to say was that I don't suspect who I suspect because of whether or not they were on the wagon. If S_B and Galz were off the wagon, I would still be suspicious of them due to their play. Their ending up on the wagon does not have much influence on me. Obviously they seemed scummy at least partly due to their suspicion of Robz, but this would hold true whether they had voted or not.

It was such a strange first day that I don't feel like the Mafia needed to vote for C_F considering how determined we were to lynch someone. This is not to say that the Mafia did not participate in the lynch seeing as I see it as unlikley that manda and Eevee are the Mafia, and obviously I don't see myself as Mafia.

Going back and thinking about who was on and off the wagon versus the number of people who were on and off the wagon changes my thinking. I now would say 2-0 or maybe 1-1 (with Eevee being the one).

This looks dumb as hell, I know.

[Galzria]

@Young_Nick: Isn't your answer in d) and b) a bit contradictory to each other?

In a word, yes.

My thought process: When answering b) and when discussing the 0-2/1-1/2-0 before timchen's questions I had not thought about who in particular was on or off the wagon. I was merely considering the possibility of Mafia being on or off the wagon. What I meant to say was that I don't suspect who I suspect because of whether or not they were on the wagon. If S_B and Galz were off the wagon, I would still be suspicious of them due to their play. Their ending up on the wagon does not have much influence on me. Obviously they seemed scummy at least partly due to their suspicion of Robz, but this would hold true whether they had voted or not.

It was such a strange first day that I don't feel like the Mafia needed to vote for C_F considering how determined we were to lynch someone. This is not to say that the Mafia did not participate in the lynch seeing as I see it as unlikley that manda and Eevee are the Mafia, and obviously I don't see myself as Mafia.

Going back and thinking about who was on and off the wagon versus the number of people who were on and off the wagon changes my thinking. I now would say 2-0 or maybe 1-1 (with Eevee being the one).

This looks dumb as hell, I know.

And yet you don't believe they knew Robz was a power role. So after flipping now to 2-0 as a significant possibility, care to explain why they NK'd Robz, reducing the percentage of scum from 2/5 to 2/4?

[timchen]

So basically you are saying given no particular strong reason to kill Robz, the two mafia on the wagon actually killed one of the wagoner to further increase the chance for us to find them?

And then you are also saying there need not be mafia on the wagon when in the next paragraph you did not list 0-2 as a possibility?

Actually starting mid d1 you are already hedging like crazy. Maybe we need to punish that.
Vote: Young_Nick

[pingpongsam]

...one was manda, who I trust. If I had to choose I'd say Eevee, but I trust him, too.

1st, why do you trust anyone?

2nd, assuming when you say "trust" you mean "find more town than others", why exactly, do you trust manda? I don't yet have a case against her but I sure don't trust her. Eevee looks pretty town to me although his extreme distancing from the Frisk wagon smells slightly scummy, that is, I don't fully trust him or anyone else for that matter.

Seems to me trust would come easy when you know who is who and only Mafia knows that.

[pingpongsam]

Oh yeah, since you guys hate it so much,

FoS: Young Nick

[Eevee]

...one was manda, who I trust. If I had to choose I'd say Eevee, but I trust him, too.

1st, why do you trust anyone?

2nd, assuming when you say "trust" you mean "find more town than others", why exactly, do you trust manda? I don't yet have a case against her but I sure don't trust her. Eevee looks pretty town to me although his extreme distancing from the Frisk wagon smells slightly scummy, that is, I don't fully trust him or anyone else for that matter.

Seems to me trust would come easy when you know who is who and only Mafia knows that.

I didnt need to distance myself from the Frisk wagon, if you read any of yesterday you'd know I was as far from it as one can possibly be. But my comments were obviously stupid and caused nothing but confusion and negative feelings among townies + gave mafia a way to accuse me. I regret them.

As I said earlier, manda accusing me today is a play I dont expect mafia to make. Mafia wants to target guys they feel are easy to lynch, build wagons that can take off. I dont think mafia would target me, because I think they'd realize they would have a hard time convincing townies I'm the best lynch there is because of what happened yesterday. I could be wrong here.

[pingpongsam]

Where the heck is Sharky?

[Young Nick]

So basically you are saying given no particular strong reason to kill Robz, the two mafia on the wagon actually killed one of the wagoner to further increase the chance for us to find them?

And then you are also saying there need not be mafia on the wagon when in the next paragraph you did not list 0-2 as a possibility?

Actually starting mid d1 you are already hedging like crazy. Maybe we need to punish that.
Vote: Young_Nick

Yes, I don't think that Mafia have to be on the wagon. Separate from who is on the wagon and who is not, I would not assume that the Mafia would be on the wagon. Having said that, independent of their wagon-status, I do not find Eevee or manda particularly scummy. Thus, I figure that Mafia are probably on the wagon. I say this more as a way of grouping who I trust, not why I trust them. If instead of voting for C_F we were voting for Obama and Romney, I would still say that those who voted differently than I are suspicious. Not because of their votes, because of their play.

And I do think they had reason to kill Robz. He is a veteran player. He was a threat to the Mafia were he to stop lurking. Killing him prevents that, even if it means killing someone who was also on the wagon.

Maybe Mafia figure that more people think like I do. That is to say they do not classify by "on-wagon" and "off-wagon" because D1 was such chaos.

[shark_bait]

I'm here... just not here.  I put most of my thought into BMMMM1 today.

I've got a research presentation tomorrow in front of my lab group, so I've been trying to be extra productive during the day... which coincidentally is when I most often am online.  I'll try to post more tomorrow morning/afternoon, but there's a good chance I won't do much until after 6:00 EST.

A quick few thoughts right now.  I'm fairly certain I've voiced these yesterday.  My wagon is very easy to drive as if it turns up VT lynch, the driver is not to blame but I am to blame.  I believe that 1 mafia member has been an active participant in driving my wagon.  The three people in that boat who I am most suspicious of (looking at both days) are PPS, manda, and Eevee.

[Young Nick]

...one was manda, who I trust. If I had to choose I'd say Eevee, but I trust him, too.

1st, why do you trust anyone?

2nd, assuming when you say "trust" you mean "find more town than others", why exactly, do you trust manda? I don't yet have a case against her but I sure don't trust her. Eevee looks pretty town to me although his extreme distancing from the Frisk wagon smells slightly scummy, that is, I don't fully trust him or anyone else for that matter.

(I am posting this despite being ninja'd by S_B.)

Seems to me trust would come easy when you know who is who and only Mafia knows that.

Fine, trust is a strong word in your opinion. I find both of their play to be pro-town. manda has said things that I agree with in the past, especially relating to S_B. Eevee was against the C_F wagon the whole time and when he has spoken has made sense.

So shoot, er lynch, me for finding all y'all to be town-aligned. Most people have done little to raise much suspicion to theirselves, in my opinion. Except S_B, who's strange play strikes me as too much for town.

[Young Nick]

I'm here... just not here.  I put most of my thought into BMMMM1 today.

I've got a research presentation tomorrow in front of my lab group, so I've been trying to be extra productive during the day... which coincidentally is when I most often am online.  I'll try to post more tomorrow morning/afternoon, but there's a good chance I won't do much until after 6:00 EST.

A quick few thoughts right now.  I'm fairly certain I've voiced these yesterday.  My wagon is very easy to drive as if it turns up VT lynch, the driver is not to blame but I am to blame.  I believe that 1 mafia member has been an active participant in driving my wagon.  The three people in that boat who I am most suspicious of (looking at both days) are PPS, manda, and Eevee.

To be honest, I, too, have been driving your wagon.

[Young Nick]

Driving might be a harsh word. I have been suspicious of you, I should say.

[timchen]

So Young_Nick, did I also do too little to raise your suspicion?

[Young Nick]

I would need to re-read in order to make that assessment. Can't do that now as I am falling asleep at the keyboard. Generally, though, your D2 initiative is a good thing.

[Young Nick]

Is there a quick 'n' easy way to view posts by a single person within a thread? Or for that matter check post-count within a thread?

[timchen]

hit print and then search for by: player_name

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-2

shark_bait (1): Eevee
Young Nick (1): timchen

Not Voting {5}: Galzria, Young Nick, manda2014, shark_bait, pingpongsam

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)

[manda2014]

So I was riiiight in the middle of typing up a post earlier when I realized I was running way late for like 3 different things.... anyway, here's my answer to timchen's poll:

(a) do you think robz was killed because scum thought he is PR?
I really doubt it. Like I said earlier, I didn't see anything that would have hinted at him being a PR. I think it's most likely that the mafia killed him because he is both vocal and experienced. That combined with his rather erratic (especially for him) play, made him someone who was both good at the game and impossible to predict, and that is dangerous for scum. I think they just wanted him out of the way and got lucky.

(b) how many scum do you think is on/off the wagon? 0-2, 1-1, or 2-0?
I'm really not sure. It would make sense to me, though, that they'd split up.

(c) in the case when there is at least one scum on the wagon, who do you think it's the most suspicious?
Ehhh, probably PPS? But I couldn't tell you why. He makes me wary for some reason but I can't put my finger on it and I'm certainly not suspicious enough to spend a whoooole lot of time looking into it.

(d) how about the people off wagon?
Eevee, for all the reasons I've previously stated. And for apologizing AGAIN.

I didnt need to distance myself from the Frisk wagon, if you read any of yesterday you'd know I was as far from it as one can possibly be. But my comments were obviously stupid and caused nothing but confusion and negative feelings among townies + gave mafia a way to accuse me. I regret them.

[timchen]

Ok. If I didn't overlook something then only sharky hasn't replied. But I think the concensus is fairly obvious that we had a better chance to look for scum on the off-wagon side: among eevee, young_nick, and manda.

I have some reasons to believe that eevee is town. (I will reveal if necessary.)
Among the remaining two, Young_nick is consistently hedging, while manda speaks of on-the-look-reasonable things, but gives me a feeling of being a notch more stupid than what I initially perceived. Look at her recent reply! Sounds reasonable, but if you look into it, lacks substance.

So: FoS: manda

Before I switch my vote here, I'd also like everyone to weigh in if you do not mind, that who do you think is the scummier of the two. Manda or Young_Nick.

[pingpongsam]

Manda or Young_Nick.

After reading through their post history I would have to pick manda.
Don't get me wrong, YN's behavior is very hedgy and reading through his posts has made me feel considerably more uneasy about him than before. I may have been largely ignoring him because he seems to post relatively often with lots of words but not much is being said.

manda, on the other hand, has been all the places scum should be; the Sharky wagon, implicating Robz and off the Frisk wagon. manda has done well to appear innocuous, lurk more and post touchy-feely based on the swing of the game despite her early claim that we should all go with our guts, remain wary and not let others' views bias us. She may calim this an OMGUS post because she implicated me but I find it anti-town to put a name on the table of suspicion without substantiating it with something from their post history. It screams deflection and a signals that they are avoiding putting too much of themselves out for scrutiny.

While I have reserved suspicions on other players and YN has also made the list I have considered the off/on wagon angle some more and I believe we are looking at 1-1 thus looking into the off-wagon pool I'd have to pick manda under the current circumstances.

Vote: manda

It must be noted that if manda is Mafia then Sharky is near exonerated. It is hard to believe manda would have stayed on a scum buddy's near lynch wagon so tenaciously. That leaves Galzria and timchen on the Frisk wagon in the 1-1 theory. Both of those guys give me huge town vibe which inclines me to look closer at their posts and/or consider the 0-2 angle. The idea that town lynched Frisk with 1 Mafia on board seems more palatable than the idea that Mafia watched with glee as town lynched Frisk all on their own. I am willing to reject that palatable thought if it means I am more successfully targeting Mafia, however.

[Young Nick]

I would love to respond to all of this. I just don't know when I will have the time. I might this afternoon, I might not. I might not be free until tomorrow, when I have the one-day cup and ZM1 and IRL stuff. But I do want to express my thoughts!

[Eevee]

If i had to pick from nick and manda, i guess i'd pick nick.

@manda
Robz wasnt vocal. I have a reason to apologize, being cocky eas anti-town.

I dont know how what to think about PPS leading us like this. Its great if he is town, but that is not confirmed by any
means and we might have just been adviced to pick from two townies by a mafioso. But I do think they are ok targets to focus on.

[pingpongsam]

If i had to pick from nick and manda, i guess i'd pick nick.

@manda
Robz wasnt vocal. I have a reason to apologize, being cocky eas anti-town.

I dont know how what to think about PPS leading us like this. Its great if he is town, but that is not confirmed by any
means and we might have just been adviced to pick from two townies by a mafioso. But I do think they are ok targets to focus on.

While I'm not arguing with the main thrust of your post I have to point out that my response is in direct relation to timchen's leading. I was only answering his question which should be evidenced by the truncated quote I began the post with.