All right guys - In about an hour I'm going to go into phone lurk mode. I'll do my best to monitor the situation - but in the event that scum hammers me - I will leave you with my parting thoughts in advance.
I suspect that 1 scum is currently voting for me, and 1 scum is not. This makes things nice and easy (1/4 scum on each side - same odds as 2 scum in eight)
Of the folks on my wagon, I suspect RobZ and Galz the most. First - Galz is not posting as much as he does in other games. For example, I asked a question @ 9am this morning. No Galzria post - but he's been all over the forums.
First off, this is a flat out lie. Here is a link to my profile and post history today:
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;area=showposts;u=959I have made a total of 4 posts today (well, since I woke up - not counting ~1:00am stuff), and only ONE of those was after CF asked me his question - That post, fwiw, was all of 3 words long. This is more spin from scum trying to paint a picture that gets somebody other than himself lynched.
RobZ i suspect as well - but the amount of suspicion on him is just far too ripe for me.
timchen I am starting to view as crazy rather than crafty.
PPS is just straight crazy. I hope that this experience will teach him that being confident in this game is totally wrongheaded.
Off my wagon, I suspect Manda and eeVee the most. I suspect that they will hammer me near the deadline with the excuse that its hammer time. However, since lynch > no lynch - I think they are waiting and hoping that one of the townies gets it... thus only leaving 1 scum on the wagon who voted for me (1/5 = 20%) Then they can night kill one of those people, and and they are at 1/4 (25%) and 1/3 (33%), although this isn't a guarantee. They may prefer to kill someone off the wagon.
If scum is forced to lynch me, then I suspect they absolutely kill someone off the wagon to leave maximum room for suspicion of those who false lynched me.
I view young nick with some suspicion (lurker), and I think that shark_bait is obv town.
I promise that lynching me will not accomplish the goal of the first mafia game to lynch scum on day 1. I think that Galz has a much better chance, and besides: he's in too many other games anyway.
First off, what's the value of a promise without a flip to back it up? I
promise you that if you lynch me, I'll flip Day/Night Vig with bullet-proof immunity and a two-shot investigative ability. Yeah.
Second, the number of games that I am in has absolutely no bearing on my role here, and the idea that anybody would use this as an excuse to force a lynch through is ridiculous. It's a scum justification trying to get townies on-board.
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To answer your question: CF has done nothing but role-fish all game. He stated early on that he desired to keep pushing wagons until the person being pushed was forced to claim. This is extremely anti-town. Furthermore, if that was indeed the case, it isn't something likely said by a PR, now is it? CF's wagon went up to L-1 and he did not claim. This means that he is either a VT, or Scum. At this point, I would MUCH rather role those dice, than keep fishing until we DO hit a power role, allowing the Mafia a huge advantage going forward.
If he IS a Vanilla Townie, that is the best possible non-mafia-lynch we could get. If he is Scum, we've set the standard that scum trying to hide behind VT claims and rolefish wagons will not be tolerated. If he's scum and he is NOT lynched there will never be a reason for Mafia to claim a PR again. They can claim VT all day long, get the wagon to drop, and move on to more PR hunting (which is, mind you, the one thing Mafia IS trying to accomplish). It is for this very reason that I have refused to claim. If CF is scum, allowing him to push a different wagon and force a claim is 100% beneficial to only one team: Mafia.