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[Captain_Frisk]

All right guys - In about an hour I'm going to go into phone lurk mode.  I'll do my best to monitor the situation - but in the event that scum hammers me - I will leave you with my parting thoughts in advance.

I suspect that 1 scum is currently voting for me, and 1 scum is not.  This makes things nice and easy (1/4 scum on each side - same odds as 2 scum in eight)

Of the folks on my wagon, I suspect RobZ and Galz the most.  First - Galz is not posting as much as he does in other games.  For example, I asked a question @ 9am this morning.  No Galzria post - but he's been all over the forums.

RobZ i suspect as well - but the amount of suspicion on him is just far too ripe for me.

timchen I am starting to view as crazy rather than crafty.

PPS is just straight crazy.  I hope that this experience will teach him that being confident in this game is totally wrongheaded.

Off my wagon, I suspect Manda and eeVee the most.  I suspect that they will hammer me near the deadline with the excuse that its hammer time.  However, since lynch > no lynch - I think they are waiting and hoping that one of the townies gets it... thus only leaving 1 scum on the wagon who voted for me (1/5 = 20%)  Then they can night kill one of those people, and and they are at 1/4 (25%) and 1/3 (33%), although this isn't a guarantee.  They may prefer to kill someone off the wagon.

If scum is forced to lynch me, then I suspect they absolutely kill someone off the wagon to leave maximum room for suspicion of those who false lynched me.

I view young nick with some suspicion (lurker), and I think that shark_bait is obv town.

I promise that lynching me will not accomplish the goal of the first mafia game to lynch scum on day 1.  I think that Galz has a much better chance, and besides: he's in too many other games anyway.

[pingpongsam]

I'm willing to lynch Galz on the condition that we lynch Frisk if Galz flips town.

[shark_bait]

I'm willing to lynch Galz on the condition that we lynch Frisk if Galz flips town.

Do you realize how scummy that sounds?  If a mafia member says that, they guarantee putting town on the brink of losing with forcing 2 unsuccessful lynches.

[shark_bait]

Although I guess I really shouldn't talk with how scummy some of the stuff I've said has sounded.  I just wanted to point out how I read it.

[pingpongsam]

The thing is I would never propose the opposite scenario because I'm relatively certain that Galzria is Town. I'm not as certain that Frisk is Mafia but practically everything he says confirms that notion more and more. If we can lynch scum D2 then I think it's a fair trade. I'd rather hit scum D1 and I think a Frisk lynch is the brisk lynch to get that job done.

[Galzria]

All right guys - In about an hour I'm going to go into phone lurk mode.  I'll do my best to monitor the situation - but in the event that scum hammers me - I will leave you with my parting thoughts in advance.

I suspect that 1 scum is currently voting for me, and 1 scum is not.  This makes things nice and easy (1/4 scum on each side - same odds as 2 scum in eight)

Of the folks on my wagon, I suspect RobZ and Galz the most.  First - Galz is not posting as much as he does in other games.  For example, I asked a question @ 9am this morning.  No Galzria post - but he's been all over the forums.

First off, this is a flat out lie. Here is a link to my profile and post history today:

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;area=showposts;u=959

I have made a total of 4 posts today (well, since I woke up - not counting ~1:00am stuff), and only ONE of those was after CF asked me his question - That post, fwiw, was all of 3 words long. This is more spin from scum trying to paint a picture that gets somebody other than himself lynched.

RobZ i suspect as well - but the amount of suspicion on him is just far too ripe for me.

timchen I am starting to view as crazy rather than crafty.

PPS is just straight crazy.  I hope that this experience will teach him that being confident in this game is totally wrongheaded.

Off my wagon, I suspect Manda and eeVee the most.  I suspect that they will hammer me near the deadline with the excuse that its hammer time.  However, since lynch > no lynch - I think they are waiting and hoping that one of the townies gets it... thus only leaving 1 scum on the wagon who voted for me (1/5 = 20%)  Then they can night kill one of those people, and and they are at 1/4 (25%) and 1/3 (33%), although this isn't a guarantee.  They may prefer to kill someone off the wagon.

If scum is forced to lynch me, then I suspect they absolutely kill someone off the wagon to leave maximum room for suspicion of those who false lynched me.

I view young nick with some suspicion (lurker), and I think that shark_bait is obv town.

I promise that lynching me will not accomplish the goal of the first mafia game to lynch scum on day 1.  I think that Galz has a much better chance, and besides: he's in too many other games anyway.

First off, what's the value of a promise without a flip to back it up? I promise you that if you lynch me, I'll flip Day/Night Vig with bullet-proof immunity and a two-shot investigative ability. Yeah.

Second, the number of games that I am in has absolutely no bearing on my role here, and the idea that anybody would use this as an excuse to force a lynch through is ridiculous. It's a scum justification trying to get townies on-board.

---

To answer your question: CF has done nothing but role-fish all game. He stated early on that he desired to keep pushing wagons until the person being pushed was forced to claim. This is extremely anti-town. Furthermore, if that was indeed the case, it isn't something likely said by a PR, now is it? CF's wagon went up to L-1 and he did not claim. This means that he is either a VT, or Scum. At this point, I would MUCH rather role those dice, than keep fishing until we DO hit a power role, allowing the Mafia a huge advantage going forward.

If he IS a Vanilla Townie, that is the best possible non-mafia-lynch we could get. If he is Scum, we've set the standard that scum trying to hide behind VT claims and rolefish wagons will not be tolerated. If he's scum and he is NOT lynched there will never be a reason for Mafia to claim a PR again. They can claim VT all day long, get the wagon to drop, and move on to more PR hunting (which is, mind you, the one thing Mafia IS trying to accomplish). It is for this very reason that I have refused to claim. If CF is scum, allowing him to push a different wagon and force a claim is 100% beneficial to only one team: Mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

The thing is I would never propose the opposite scenario because I'm relatively certain that Galzria is Town. I'm not as certain that Frisk is Mafia but practically everything he says confirms that notion more and more. If we can lynch scum D2 then I think it's a fair trade. I'd rather hit scum D1 and I think a Frisk lynch is the brisk lynch to get that job done.

Why are you certain that Galzria is town?

[pingpongsam]

Because his arguments are the strongest pro-town arguments made all game. I find Robz arguments to be a bit radical but ultimately they are the second most pro-town arguments.

The fact that you watched a wagon form on you and sat coolly for a while appeared very pro-twon to me as well for the fact is a Frisk lynch has the best informational output of any lynch. Now that you are fighting it and the way you are fighting appears to be rather scummy in the sense that it isn't nearly a pro-town stance as it were.

I'm just as "certain" that Frisk is scum because of the method of his play as I am Glazria to be town because of his play. "Certainty" being used in a mathematical sense in that it is probabalistic and not absolute. It got really cloudy and windy and thundery an hour ago and I was "certain" that it was going to rain for some amount of time. It didn't rain a drop and the weather passed. But how many times has the same weather appeared and the rain did fall... way more often than not.

[Captain_Frisk]

Because his arguments are the strongest pro-town arguments made all game. I find Robz arguments to be a bit radical but ultimately they are the second most pro-town arguments.

The fact that you watched a wagon form on you and sat coolly for a while appeared very pro-twon to me as well for the fact is a Frisk lynch has the best informational output of any lynch. Now that you are fighting it and the way you are fighting appears to be rather scummy in the sense that it isn't nearly a pro-town stance as it were.

I'm just as "certain" that Frisk is scum because of the method of his play as I am Glazria to be town because of his play. "Certainty" being used in a mathematical sense in that it is probabalistic and not absolute. It got really cloudy and windy and thundery an hour ago and I was "certain" that it was going to rain for some amount of time. It didn't rain a drop and the weather passed. But how many times has the same weather appeared and the rain did fall... way more often than not.

PPS - I am not scum - and the wagon on me is information - which is one of the reasons why I didn't fight it.  If we lynch Galzria, then we will have 2 wagons of information.  Yes - I'll have more information than you, because I KNOW that i'm town, while you're going to have to take my word for it.

You'd feel the same way if 4 people had voted for you.

[pingpongsam]

You'd feel the same way if 4 people had voted for you.

I know how it feels just to have people looking at you sideways and have yet to feel the heat of a real wagon so I am going to take your word on that and believe it.

[timchen]

@frisk: if u are going to label me as crazy you should first point out why my theory that if you are town then it is likely that YN/eevee/shark are also town is crazy.

I think it is quite reasonable. If you are town and one of them is scum, why does that guy not join the wagon? He has the chance if he would not like to hammer when PPS backed off.

@YN: can you explain why you rank frisk at #3 but is never willing to lynch him?

[Captain_Frisk]

I think mafia is either fine with no lunch- or they are waiting for deadline as an excuse.

[timchen]

Maybe I am indeed crazy. I hope you don't blame me too much that I want to know whether I am crazy by lynching you.

[Eevee]

I absolutely wont lynch/vote for Frisk, even though I do think it would be informational. I'd rather let it go to nolynch if thats the only alternative.

[pingpongsam]

I absolutely wont lynch/vote for Frisk, even though I do think it would be informational. I'd rather let it go to nolynch if thats the only alternative.

I think mafia is either fine with no lunch- or they are waiting for deadline as an excuse.

?

[Eevee]

I absolutely wont lynch/vote for Frisk, even though I do think it would be informational. I'd rather let it go to nolynch if thats the only alternative.

I think mafia is either fine with no lunch- or they are waiting for deadline as an excuse.

?

Frisk was suspecting all of the guys not voting for him of possibly hammering near the deadline and using the deadline as an excuse. I just clarified I wont do that. I am sticking with my read of Frisk being town.

[Young Nick]

@YN: can you explain why you rank frisk at #3 but is never willing to lynch him?

Well I can't say that I feel that way anymore. At the time )#396), I listed the reason as "a gut feeling." I just don't have that anymore. A revised list would Eevee and timchen above him, but not because they are lurkers. The main knock I have on C_F at this point is that I agree with Galzria that his wagon-is-information strategy doesn't seem to make sense. I do appreciate that he has been spearheading our hunt for Mafia. Though he has had some scummy play, I do think that having him around is worthwhile.

So it's not that I was ever super-willing to lynch him before, but that I couldn't bring myself to lynch him now.

[pingpongsam]

Looks like we're going for a no lynch stalemate.

This has always struck me as being a pretty pro-town move despite vehement opposition to it. We get 90% of the D1 info and we avoid lynching a Townie so we go into D2 with one more head than usual and the dead townie still gives us information to work with relative to the information built D1.

I keep forgetting, tell me again why no lynch is Bad IdeaŽ?

[Eevee]

I keep forgetting, tell me again why no lynch is Bad IdeaŽ?

Having a wagon to analyze would be good. If we nolynch, scum will kill at night, our power roles might do something, but other than that its basicly day 1 all over again. If we dont get a flip, we cant really analyze any of the wagons.

I'm not sure how bad or good this is. I thiiink it has got to be better than lynching a townie, but its not like we really have 0% at hitting scum.

[timchen]

No lynch is really a bad idea.

Saying you'll get 90% of the information is just, wrong. If we go no lynch, say the scum kills eevee or shark or me tonight, what do we get tomorrow? Nothing. The key is that while what a townie said is sincere, it is not guaranteed to be true. And the scum won't kill those key figure (say frisk) whose flip provides critical information.

If you go no lynch you basically put your hope on the town PRs. The problem of that for me is that it is probably too luck dependent.

Sincerely, nobody cares about the points I've made for lynching frisk? I can only understand the objection if you view him as 100% town. But only scum will know that.

[Eevee]

Sincerely, nobody cares about the points I've made for lynching frisk? I can only understand the objection if you view him as 100% town. But only scum will know that.

I agree that lynching Frisk would give us a ton of information. But my personal town read on him is too strong, I wont vote for someone I'm pretty sure is town just to get us some information.

[Robz888]

I'm not the biggest opponent of No Lynch--in fact, among the veteran players, I am its lone sort-of supporter--but here's the problem: the mafia won't kill Frisk tonight. So then tomorrow we will be having this same discussion about him. It will take 2 NK periods before we resolve whether Frisk is town or not, and that's 1 more than if we kill him now.

I am absolutely sure that killing him is the best move for the town. Whether it reveals a mafia or not is another matter.

[Eevee]

Robz, do you think I should vote for Frisk even if I'm fairly confident he is town?

[Robz888]

Robz, do you think I should vote for Frisk even if I'm fairly confident he is town?

No, I don't. You shouldn't vote for someone if you are fairly confident that they are town.

However, you are wrong to be fairly confident that anyone is town at this point, most of all Frisk. So yes, you should vote for him. Look, no one has done anything to render them definitely town. The closest is Sharky, and I still wouldn't say he's obvtown. The best example of obvtown is SFS in MIV.

Frisk has been leading everybody like sheep, compiling, uh, way too much information for this stage of the game. He's had flashes of irritability. And Galzria's point about making a different first round kill than usual makes sense. Also, we know that lynching him will not lose us a power role (which is MEGA important), and it's informational for wagon reasons.

So I think you should vote for him. I don't want you to vote for anybody you think is definitely town, but I hope you see why you are wrong to think Frisk is definitely town (really, I think you're wrong to think that about anybody).

[Eevee]

Robz, do you think I should vote for Frisk even if I'm fairly confident he is town?

No, I don't. You shouldn't vote for someone if you are fairly confident that they are town.

However, you are wrong to be fairly confident that anyone is town at this point, most of all Frisk. So yes, you should vote for him. Look, no one has done anything to render them definitely town. The closest is Sharky, and I still wouldn't say he's obvtown. The best example of obvtown is SFS in MIV.

Frisk has been leading everybody like sheep, compiling, uh, way too much information for this stage of the game. He's had flashes of irritability. And Galzria's point about making a different first round kill than usual makes sense. Also, we know that lynching him will not lose us a power role (which is MEGA important), and it's informational for wagon reasons.

So I think you should vote for him. I don't want you to vote for anybody you think is definitely town, but I hope you see why you are wrong to think Frisk is definitely town (really, I think you're wrong to think that about anybody).

I dont think he is definitely town. I said I'm "fairly confident". I think he is more likely to be town than anyone else here.