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[Eevee]

You are super-pressed to get a non-C_F lynch. That's some serious wagon-hunting. I guess at this point, why would settling for NL be so bad? Mafia night-kills someone we now know is town and can still glean a ton of information. Why must we kill two? The more I think about it, the less I think that a lynch is a must.

The important thing about any day 1 lynch (for town) is the info we get from analyzing the wagon. I dont know if thats enough to justify killing a VT seemingly every time (so probably quite high % of the time in reality too). Yeah, maybe nolynch isnt so bad here. Would be pretty cool to know if Frisk is town btw..

[Young Nick]

@Galzria: Here's the thing with your logic: You assume that PR's feel obligated to legit-claim at L-1. You don't see C_F pulling of a TINAS*. However, the correct play for a PR would be to claim VT given the logic provided. In fact, when you encourage all to not claim at all, you are advocating for the same system as C_F is except that instead of no claim, all claim VT. So really, I don't think that his system is that much different than yours. I'm not saying I like either, but I do feel like it's silly to have you argue over that when in reality you two are thinking more alike than is apparent at first.

*For those who didn't follow TINAS's actions in MI or MII (I don't remember which), he was the Town Cop who got to L-1 and was fine dying but eventually did not get lynched and won them the game, so to TINAS is to not claim your PR when at L-1.

[Young Nick]

You are super-pressed to get a non-C_F lynch. That's some serious wagon-hunting. I guess at this point, why would settling for NL be so bad? Mafia night-kills someone we now know is town and can still glean a ton of information. Why must we kill two? The more I think about it, the less I think that a lynch is a must.

The important thing about any day 1 lynch (for town) is the info we get from analyzing the wagon. I dont know if thats enough to justify killing a VT seemingly every time (so probably quite high % of the time in reality too). Yeah, maybe nolynch isnt so bad here. Would be pretty cool to know if Frisk is town btw..

I see what you are saying. What I am saying is that if the night-kill is someone who had a wagon on them, then we still can gain that same information. However, that's a big if, and I doubt the Mafia would be so kind to us.

[Eevee]

Yeah, no. Mafia has zero incentive to help town.

[Galzria]

@Galzria: Here's the thing with your logic: You assume that PR's feel obligated to legit-claim at L-1. You don't see C_F pulling of a TINAS*. However, the correct play for a PR would be to claim VT given the logic provided. In fact, when you encourage all to not claim at all, you are advocating for the same system as C_F is except that instead of no claim, all claim VT. So really, I don't think that his system is that much different than yours. I'm not saying I like either, but I do feel like it's silly to have you argue over that when in reality you two are thinking more alike than is apparent at first.

*For those who didn't follow TINAS's actions in MI or MII (I don't remember which), he was the Town Cop who got to L-1 and was fine dying but eventually did not get lynched and won them the game, so to TINAS is to not claim your PR when at L-1.

It's different because he has essentially claimed VT, and gotten people to move on over it. If he's not lynched, Mafia need never claim again. I agree the system is stupid. Mafia need to know that not claiming, or claiming VT gets you lynched - because it will becoming increasingly more difficult to verify these claims, whereas forcing scum to survive on PR claims gives us something to latch onto that can often be verified.

[Galzria]

@Galzria: Here's the thing with your logic: You assume that PR's feel obligated to legit-claim at L-1. You don't see C_F pulling of a TINAS*. However, the correct play for a PR would be to claim VT given the logic provided. In fact, when you encourage all to not claim at all, you are advocating for the same system as C_F is except that instead of no claim, all claim VT. So really, I don't think that his system is that much different than yours. I'm not saying I like either, but I do feel like it's silly to have you argue over that when in reality you two are thinking more alike than is apparent at first.

*For those who didn't follow TINAS's actions in MI or MII (I don't remember which), he was the Town Cop who got to L-1 and was fine dying but eventually did not get lynched and won them the game, so to TINAS is to not claim your PR when at L-1.

It's different because he has essentially claimed VT, and gotten people to move on over it. If he's not lynched, Mafia need never claim again. I agree the system is stupid. Mafia need to know that not claiming, or claiming VT gets you lynched - because it will becoming increasingly more difficult to verify these claims, whereas forcing scum to survive on PR claims gives us something to latch onto that can often be verified.

Well, "gotten people to move on over it" isn't completely accurate, but you understand my meaning - especially when the original post was written in response to Timchen asking for a L-1 claim so he could possibly hammer at a later time.

[Young Nick]

@Eevee: Well, if C_F is town, Mafia might find it in their best interest to get him got because he spurs so much conversation. Sometimes he leads the town, yes, but he also has contributed lots to town. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's certainly feasible.

@Galzria: So basically you are fine with both non-claims and VT-claims getting lynched? So your system IS the same, in that case. You are refusing to claim. By that logic, should we not hesitate to lynch you?

[Galzria]

@Eevee: Well, if C_F is town, Mafia might find it in their best interest to get him got because he spurs so much conversation. Sometimes he leads the town, yes, but he also has contributed lots to town. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's certainly feasible.

@Galzria: So basically you are fine with both non-claims and VT-claims getting lynched? So your system IS the same, in that case. You are refusing to claim. By that logic, should we not hesitate to lynch you?

Of course you should. I have not claimed "not-PR". Frisk has. Which would you rather lynch?

[Galzria]

Of course you should hesitate*

[manda2014]

Yeah, no. Mafia has zero incentive to help town.

Mafia has zero incentive to help town? If they don't at least do some stuff to "help" the town (read: look really helpful), they're gonna get killed. Anyone obviously not helping the town is going to end up dead.

[Young Nick]

I think what Eevee and I were getting at was that the Mafia have no incentive to help the town when performing their night-kill.

[timchen]

Okay, I might not be able to post again before the dead line, but here's what I'd like to say. It is terribly unlikely that frisk and the wagon on him contains two scum: either two scum jumped on a townie wagon and stayed for a long time, or a scum bus his partner early. So I have to conclude that we have at least one scum in the remaining four:
manda, YN, SB, and eevee.

Now, as far as I can see, among the 4 manda expressed willingness to vote for frisk but rather wait, while the other three never expressed any willingness to join the wagon. Among the three I would say YN is the most suspicious, as he ranked frisk at #3 on his list, while the other two ranked him at #8. But okay, maybe time has passed and people changed their mind.

But the important point here is for YN/SB/eevee, what I said earlier about eevee holds, I think. That is, if they are scum and frisk is not, at this point they have almost no incentive at all to hold their vote. One can always say WIFOM, but here the asymmetry is huge and they practically will take very little blame for hammering as Robz, Galzria, and I would probably take most of the responsibility of lynching town frisk. So the bottom line, if we think one of them is scum, I would say frisk should also be scum. And if frisk is not scum, according to this, we might want to heavily suspect manda (and one of us between me, Galz, and Robz.)

Bottomline: there is a good chance of hitting mafia by lynching frisk. And if indeed frisk is mafia, we can try to find the other mafia among manda/eevee/SB/YN. If frisk is not mafia, I think it clears eevee/SB/YN. And we have to suspect manda and me/galz/robz/PPS. Either way, lynching him gives us great information and at this point I can honestly not see the townie among eevee/SB/YN not to agree on lynching him, as he either flips scum or clears you guys.

 

[timchen]

I should also say if frisk flips town, then there is a distinct possibility of the scum team Robz-Galz. But I would only worry about this after seeing his flip.

[pingpongsam]

Okay, I might not be able to post again before the dead line, but here's what I'd like to say. It is terribly unlikely that frisk and the wagon on him contains two scum: either two scum jumped on a townie wagon and stayed for a long time, or a scum bus his partner early. So I have to conclude that we have at least one scum in the remaining four:
manda, YN, SB, and eevee.

Now, as far as I can see, among the 4 manda expressed willingness to vote for frisk but rather wait, while the other three never expressed any willingness to join the wagon. Among the three I would say YN is the most suspicious, as he ranked frisk at #3 on his list, while the other two ranked him at #8. But okay, maybe time has passed and people changed their mind.

But the important point here is for YN/SB/eevee, what I said earlier about eevee holds, I think. That is, if they are scum and frisk is not, at this point they have almost no incentive at all to hold their vote. One can always say WIFOM, but here the asymmetry is huge and they practically will take very little blame for hammering as Robz, Galzria, and I would probably take most of the responsibility of lynching town frisk. So the bottom line, if we think one of them is scum, I would say frisk should also be scum. And if frisk is not scum, according to this, we might want to heavily suspect manda (and one of us between me, Galz, and Robz.)

Bottomline: there is a good chance of hitting mafia by lynching frisk. And if indeed frisk is mafia, we can try to find the other mafia among manda/eevee/SB/YN. If frisk is not mafia, I think it clears eevee/SB/YN. And we have to suspect manda and me/galz/robz/PPS. Either way, lynching him gives us great information and at this point I can honestly not see the townie among eevee/SB/YN not to agree on lynching him, as he either flips scum or clears you guys.

This is more or less why I am voting Frisk. As a a game progresses I am more apt to be able to spell out my reasoning like this. To put the whole thing in a nutshell, I think the most information to be gained is from a Frisk lynch regardless of his alignment. That I have strong suspicions of him being Mafia just makes it all the more easier to make the decision.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 1-16

Captain_Frisk (4): timchen, Galzria, Robz888, pingpongsam
shark_bait (2): manda2014, Young Nick
Galzria (2): Captain_Frisk, shark_bait
Robz888 (1): Eevee

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time (EDT)

[Captain_Frisk]

@Eevee: Well, if C_F is town, Mafia might find it in their best interest to get him got because he spurs so much conversation. Sometimes he leads the town, yes, but he also has contributed lots to town. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's certainly feasible.

@Galzria: So basically you are fine with both non-claims and VT-claims getting lynched? So your system IS the same, in that case. You are refusing to claim. By that logic, should we not hesitate to lynch you?

Of course you should. I have not claimed "not-PR". Frisk has. Which would you rather lynch?

I have?

[Captain_Frisk]

Bump?

[Young Nick]

Bump.

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh - bummer - YN has gone offline.  YN - are you really feeling like shark_bait is mafia, or is this a more of a desire to lynch scummy looking behavior?

[Young Nick]

I'd need to re-read some of the earlier stuff and see. I don't have time now for that, unfortunately. However, I do know that my vote on him is pointless right now.

[Captain_Frisk]

All right folks - I have theory coming over for some real life gaming this weekend.  I have a feeling that the mafia is going to use the deadline as an excuse to lynch me - any chance we can get some discussion going that results in discussion of Galz / eeVee?

[pingpongsam]

As I already asked you, the only crime Galz has committed is looking Towny, riiiight??? That's your cue to show me how he might be a mafia in town clothing.

I admit it is suspicious that he remains so amicably Towny but that in and of itself is a terrible basis for a lynch.

[Captain_Frisk]

As I already asked you, the only crime Galz has committed is looking Towny, riiiight??? That's your cue to show me how he might be a mafia in town clothing.

I admit it is suspicious that he remains so amicably Towny but that in and of itself is a terrible basis for a lynch.

Do you truly expect mafia to give themselves away?  Have we ever lynched scum for being scummy?  I think O in MIV was the closest, and he is ALWAYS scummy.

[Robz888]

As I already asked you, the only crime Galz has committed is looking Towny, riiiight??? That's your cue to show me how he might be a mafia in town clothing.

I admit it is suspicious that he remains so amicably Towny but that in and of itself is a terrible basis for a lynch.

Do you truly expect mafia to give themselves away?  Have we ever lynched scum for being scummy?  I think O in MIV was the closest, and he is ALWAYS scummy.

O in MIV was the closest, but for my part, it was because of his voting pattern, not his behavior, that I was drawn to him in the first place. Then his reaction was very scummy.

[shark_bait]

So we've got a day left to lynch.  I have no desire to lynch CF.  My case against Robz was his lurkiness which he has stopped lately.  So I'm a little unsure about where I am with him.  The fact that Galz has so little suspicion is enough to make me consider lynching him.

I know I said something like this pages ago.  But part of me is suspicious that WIFOM could have been used by the mafia when I so obviously looked like scum.  It gave the mafia a really easy target to lock onto without their own actions being considered scummy.  For that reason, PPS, manda and YN are still on my suspicious list.  As for timchen/eevee, I can't say I have much of a read on them right now.  I'll want to go back and read through this stuff again sometime tonight.