Topic: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!) (Read 139047 times)

Robz888 · « **Reply #450 on:** July 25, 2012, 11:45:37 am »

Why are 6 people (including me) unwilling to lynch Galzria? Show me a game where 6 people are an unwilling to lynch Galzria, and I will show you a game where I have failed...

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #451 on:** July 25, 2012, 11:54:28 am »

Quote from: Robz888 on July 25, 2012, 11:45:37 am

Why are 6 people (including me) unwilling to lynch Galzria? Show me a game where 6 people are an unwilling to lynch Galzria, and I will show you a game where I have failed...

I have no idea. My first thought was to go back to the tables analysis.

Person with least suspicion: Me (Serial Killer)
Person with 2nd least suspicion: DSell (Mafia)

But - in that game up to that point I had truly been playing as if I was a town vig - so I didn't consider it damning evidence. It wasn't until I murdered Galzria in his sleep that I made a truly anti-town move.

Eevee · « **Reply #452 on:** July 25, 2012, 11:57:04 am »

Should we lynch Galz just because no one is suspicious of him?

shark_bait · « **Reply #453 on:** July 25, 2012, 12:03:27 pm »

He was a maybe for me, well I guess everyone was a maybe. On D1, I can't really bring myself to %100 trust anyone. I think the real question we need to consider is why no one was suspicious of him.

Eevee · « **Reply #454 on:** July 25, 2012, 12:06:52 pm »

Quote from: shark_bait on July 25, 2012, 12:03:27 pm

He was a maybe for me, well I guess everyone was a maybe. On D1, I can't really bring myself to %100 trust anyone. I think the real question we need to consider is why no one was suspicious of him.

Same here. I guess he has been sort of posting but not saying much, really not getting any attention at all. I'm guessing day 2 will be a lot easier, some people might start playing a bit different when the field gets thinner and also less people to analyze.

shark_bait · « **Reply #455 on:** July 25, 2012, 12:16:14 pm »

Quote from: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 12:06:52 pm

less people to analyze.

I see we're in agreement that a lynch must occur by the end of the day

Young Nick · « **Reply #456 on:** July 25, 2012, 12:24:05 pm »

Or maybe he is saying that he's OK with NL today and letting Mafia get a free night-kill.

Young Nick · « **Reply #457 on:** July 25, 2012, 12:24:18 pm »

(I jest, I jest)

shark_bait · « **Reply #458 on:** July 25, 2012, 12:27:46 pm »

I was referring to the use of the plural "people" than than the singular "person" indication more than 1 person will die by the time tomorrow's day starts.

Young Nick · « **Reply #459 on:** July 25, 2012, 12:49:58 pm »

Unless the doctor or jailer (if we have one or both) make a correct decision and thus prevent a night-kill. Boy, would that be something, to go NL then have no night-kill so we had 9 people starting D2.

shark_bait · « **Reply #460 on:** July 25, 2012, 01:00:24 pm »

As my good friend says, "Never assume, it makes an ass out of you a me."

This may be pessimistic, but I'm going with the realization that the PR won't do anything meaningful tonight.

timchen · « **Reply #461 on:** July 25, 2012, 01:07:54 pm »

I think it is probably more instructive to look at middle ground pairings. I'll list every pairing that lists each other among 3-6. It's not guaranteed the scum pair is hear but there is a higher possibility I believe. Judging from the overall opinion we have to (for now) exclude Galz from the list for consistency (because if Galz is scum, his partner can probably downvote him to hide in the crowd; so this list is only meaningful if we take Galz as town.)

robz, eevee
robz, galz
robz, manda
eevee, galz
eevee, timchen
YN, timchen
YN, frisk
YN, PPS
manda, timchen
timchen, shark

Fortunately I am the person to appear the most times on the list and I know I am town. So if we cut me and Galz, we are left with

robz, eevee
robz, manda
YN, frisk
YN, PPS

For now maybe we should cut Robz as well. Robz wouldn't have played that bad to get every non-scum player to vote for him.

So... frisk, you haven't said much to your partner YN as far as I can tell. Do you want to say something?

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #462 on:** July 25, 2012, 01:17:38 pm »

Young nick and I agreed that I would be the vocal one, and he would be the lurker.

Oh... wait a second...

I find it incredibly interesting that you are jumping on the pairs analysis - which I explicitly called out as probably useless. Were you sensitive because it called you and manda out?

pingpongsam · « **Reply #463 on:** July 25, 2012, 01:19:48 pm »

I was duly admonished that it is completely ludicrous to be calling pairs D1. Also it is quite the coincidence that timchen took the lead on finding middle ground pairs so he could take himself off the list despite appearing there the most frequently.

But, if we're going to play this kind of game then I get to take myself off the list as well and just for the fun of it I'm going to ignore the 2 people left I had highest on my own list.

This leaves YN, manda.

Tada! Which one do we lynch first?

timchen · « **Reply #464 on:** July 25, 2012, 01:36:40 pm »

@frisk: As far as I can see I have no way to know that I will be high on this list beforehand. I only realize this after I compiled it. Also, I agree to some extent that pairing analysis at the bottom may not be too useful, but I think pairing in the middle is more interesting. Anyway it is at least an unbiased test. Or do you have better analysis to do from the tables?

On the other hand, why do you focus on me and manda? Not me and YN or me and eevee?

timchen · « **Reply #465 on:** July 25, 2012, 01:38:20 pm »

Quote from: pingpongsam on July 25, 2012, 01:19:48 pm

But, if we're going to play this kind of game then I get to take myself off the list as well and just for the fun of it I'm going to ignore the 2 people left I had highest on my own list.

This leaves YN, manda.

Tada! Which one do we lynch first?

What do you mean? First thing, there is no YN, manda pair. And why do you want to ignore the two people highest on your own list?

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #466 on:** July 25, 2012, 01:40:32 pm »

Quote from: timchen on July 25, 2012, 01:36:40 pm

@frisk: As far as I can see I have no way to know that I will be high on this list beforehand. I only realize this after I compiled it. Also, I agree to some extent that pairing analysis at the bottom may not be too useful, but I think pairing in the middle is more interesting. Anyway it is at least an unbiased test. Or do you have better analysis to do from the tables?

On the other hand, why do you focus on me and manda? Not me and YN or me and eevee?

I found it so interesting because you guys were close to the diagonal axis (obviously nobody will lynch themselves - i mean - morgrim isn't in this game). Also - since you were my top 2 suspects - it was extra confirmation to bias myself with.

pingpongsam · « **Reply #467 on:** July 25, 2012, 01:46:43 pm »

Quote from: timchen on July 25, 2012, 01:38:20 pm

Quote from: pingpongsam on July 25, 2012, 01:19:48 pm
But, if we're going to play this kind of game then I get to take myself off the list as well and just for the fun of it I'm going to ignore the 2 people left I had highest on my own list.

This leaves YN, manda.

Tada! Which one do we lynch first?
What do you mean? First thing, there is no YN, manda pair. And why do you want to ignore the two people highest on your own list?

So you admit the method makes no sense. I'm glad we are in agreement, then.

timchen · « **Reply #468 on:** July 25, 2012, 01:49:19 pm »

No I do not agree my method makes no sense. However I don't understand what you are doing.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #469 on:** July 25, 2012, 01:50:12 pm »

Quote from: timchen on July 25, 2012, 01:49:19 pm

No I do not agree my method makes no sense. However I don't understand what you are doing.

@young_nick - see recent timchen / PPS for example #3 that you asked me for previosly.

Young Nick · « **Reply #470 on:** July 25, 2012, 01:51:03 pm »

I don't think PPS meant me and manda were a pair but rather that we were the only two individuals left on the list after he removes those who is confident are town. Or something along those lines.

Young Nick · « **Reply #471 on:** July 25, 2012, 01:52:49 pm »

@C_F: I agree that he jumps to conclusions and such but this does not make him a liability in my mind, but rather someone who speaks his mind and who can be reasoned with. There are examples everywhere, yes, but I don't know if I see his play as a bad thing. He keeps conversation going, something that you have said is a quality you like. I only fear that he would quick-hammer without letting someone defend themselves. Otherwise I have no qualms with his play.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #472 on:** July 25, 2012, 01:55:42 pm »

Quote from: Young Nick on July 25, 2012, 01:52:49 pm

I only fear that he would quick-hammer without letting someone defend themselves.

Agreed with your post - but your quote this would be the definition of a liability.

Quote

A person or thing whose presence or behavior is likely to cause embarrassment or put one at a disadvantage

I don't want to lynch him because I think he is town. If we were going to mislynch though - I would choose him in a heartbeat.

Young Nick · « **Reply #473 on:** July 25, 2012, 01:58:45 pm »

I don't actually think he would quick-hammer, it is just the only bad thing I could see him doing I guess. I mean he provides information. I'd rather mislynch a lurker. When I say lurker I mean someone lurkier than myself, so probably robz or eevee. But I don't want to mislynch. I want to buck the trend and get it right D1 or not lynch at all.

pingpongsam · « **Reply #474 on:** July 25, 2012, 02:00:41 pm »

Quote from: Young Nick on July 25, 2012, 01:51:03 pm

I don't think PPS meant me and manda were a pair but rather that we were the only two individuals left on the list after he removes those who is confident are town. Or something along those lines.

Correct, timchen's method is to remove himself (understandable but flagrantly ignores where the data is pointing) then to remove Robz which is also strongly indicated by the data (some might call this willful ignorance).

I just mimicked the absurdity. I took his new list, removed myself and decided to remove my top contenders from my internal dataset which just leaves 2.

The problem is that the pair a process such as this will boil down to is entirely subjective based on the order of who begins the process and who ends it.

Frisk's original dataset has no such subjective ignorance interjected into it.

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Author Topic: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!) (Read 139047 times)