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[pingpongsam]

Robz' vote on me amounts to, "he's taking this game more seriously".

FFS, M6 was my 1st game and if you note I'm taking it considerably more seriously as I figure out how to get involved. Speaking of involved, M6 is complex, especially for a 1st timer. This game is cake in comparison.

So, I learned how to scumhunt and I apply my newfound knowledge to this game and I get voted for the gallows D1.
This is Town Rob playing for his team?

FoS: Robz888

[Captain_Frisk]

So the night of MVI came before I was back...

@YN: Don't take my word that serious there. I am not saying we can know who is mafia by counting number of posts. I just mean that it is hard to imagine a mafia will play for the win by intentional lurking. Not the most interesting way to play this game is it? Although I can see it work on the forums.

@manda: Not joining our frisk wagon? It's pretty clear to me that he is buddying up with you.

I'm not buddying - I'm asking her targeted questions to try to get some talking out of her.  The fact that she did her best not to answer is interesting.

[Captain_Frisk]

What do you guys think about putting together the M4 style Pops / Tables chart? 

List all of the people - in order of suspicion - in buckets of "would be willing to lynch" - "might be willing to lynch" - "will not lynch"? 

I'll start us off in a second here.

[Captain_Frisk]

Would be willing to lynch:
Manda

Might be willing to lynch
timchen - still suspicious - but taking him down a peg after his poor case against me
Young Nick - policy lynch on lurker - would like to see more from him
eeVee - didn't like him buddying me for trying to hunt scum
RobZ - don't like his play change - but not convinced that he's scum
PingPongSam - could be a liability later in the game

Not willing to lynch (today)
Galzria - this scares me
shark_bait - believe noob
Captain_Frisk

[pingpongsam]

Would be willing to lynch:

Captain_Frisk - believed to be scumbuddies with Shark_Bait, I'm onto him and he calls me a liability
Shark_Bait - What about this guy isn't scummy?

Might be willing to lynch

Robz - If ever a policy lynch was needed, also a bit of OMGUS for baseless vote against me, nothing about his play screams town
manda -  not convinced of anything on her, thinking maybe since she is actually playing the damned game she gets enough scrutiny to possibly appear scummy, tenuously agreeing with Frisk's read on her (suspending my suspicions on Frisk to do so)

Not willing to lynch (today)

PPS - obvtown (to me)
Galzria - Strongest town read
eeVee - 2nd strongest Town read
Young Nick - Seems to be scumhunting, no scum read, could swing either way but no tells to date
timchen - no tells to date, no read at all

[Young Nick]

PingPongSam - could be a liability later in the game

Could you explain this one a bit more for me?

And, yeah, I got selected to be on a jury. So instead of working until 3, I am there until 5, so my free time this week has dropped a considerable amount. Expect more from me after the trial ends, most likely Thursday or Friday.

[Eevee]

eeVee - didn't like him buddying me for trying to hunt scum

I was sincerely thanking you of taking trying to get stuff done. Thought you'd appreciate the recognition for your efforts. Why do you think PPS might become a liability?

I tried to make a chart but I feel its almost stupid because my reads are so inadequate at the moment. Putting almost everyone under "Might be willing to lynch".

[Eevee]

eeVee - didn't like him buddying me for trying to hunt scum

I was sincerely thanking you of taking trying to get stuff done. Thought you'd appreciate the recognition for your efforts. Why do you think PPS might become a liability?

I tried to make a chart but I feel its almost stupid because my reads are so inadequate at the moment. Putting almost everyone under "Might be willing to lynch".

*thanking you for trying to get stuff done.

[Captain_Frisk]

PingPongSam - could be a liability later in the game

Could you explain this one a bit more for me?

As one example: I provide you with:

It is certainly interesting to know what PRs exist up front. I think it makes analyses much more clear and gives some direction to decision making even if actual role holders remain unknown. It certainly appears to my relatively unexperienced eyes that Town has the starting advantage so we need to use this advantage to make an early ID on one of the scum. The question is how best to do this.

The obvious perfect D1 play is to have the Doctor protecting our Cop while the Jailkeeper protects a VT. Coordinating this play early while maintaining secret identities is the trick but as each day passes we will either randomly lose our PRs or the scum cops will ID them and take them out systematically. In this way JK begins as the most expendable PR. However, if we manage to knock down one of the scum the JK suddenly has the ability to ID the remaining scum member just by randomly selecting him to stop night action. Each day our Cop IDs one of us as Town the JK narrows his list of random picks.

So, in summary, Town has an advantage and played well can easily maintain it even if scum manage to hit a PR each night but coordination of the needed information will be paramount. With this information in play I'm not entirely sure a D1 lynch is such a great idea but I am entirely open to an opposing view. A D1 Town lynch seems to be sacrificing the advantage entirely too early while we seem to keep a significant night action advantage with 3 night actions to the scum team's 1. It would be a real travesty to accidentaly mislynch one of our PRs.

So, based on this early analysis I am
Vote: No Lynch

[pingpongsam]

PingPongSam - could be a liability later in the game

Could you explain this one a bit more for me?

As one example: I provide you with:

...I am entirely open to an opposing view... It would be a real travesty to accidentaly mislynch one of our PRs...

Damn, you're right, I come off like a real loose cannon maybe I should vote for myself. /sarcasm

[Eevee]

PingPongSam - could be a liability later in the game

Could you explain this one a bit more for me?

As one example: I provide you with:

It is certainly interesting to know what PRs exist up front. I think it makes analyses much more clear and gives some direction to decision making even if actual role holders remain unknown. It certainly appears to my relatively unexperienced eyes that Town has the starting advantage so we need to use this advantage to make an early ID on one of the scum. The question is how best to do this.

The obvious perfect D1 play is to have the Doctor protecting our Cop while the Jailkeeper protects a VT. Coordinating this play early while maintaining secret identities is the trick but as each day passes we will either randomly lose our PRs or the scum cops will ID them and take them out systematically. In this way JK begins as the most expendable PR. However, if we manage to knock down one of the scum the JK suddenly has the ability to ID the remaining scum member just by randomly selecting him to stop night action. Each day our Cop IDs one of us as Town the JK narrows his list of random picks.

So, in summary, Town has an advantage and played well can easily maintain it even if scum manage to hit a PR each night but coordination of the needed information will be paramount. With this information in play I'm not entirely sure a D1 lynch is such a great idea but I am entirely open to an opposing view. A D1 Town lynch seems to be sacrificing the advantage entirely too early while we seem to keep a significant night action advantage with 3 night actions to the scum team's 1. It would be a real travesty to accidentaly mislynch one of our PRs.

So, based on this early analysis I am
Vote: No Lynch

Nah, I think he is just trying to learn the ropes, dont see him as a liability at all. In fact I appreciate his efforts to analyse stuff, seems more like an asset to the town to me. Frisk seems kind of eager to build cases against everyone (your vote to mandy could also be read as an attempt to build a wagon for her), but that could just be aggressive scumhunting.

[Captain_Frisk]

eeVee - didn't like him buddying me for trying to hunt scum

I was sincerely thanking you of taking trying to get stuff done. Thought you'd appreciate the recognition for your efforts. Why do you think PPS might become a liability?

I tried to make a chart but I feel its almost stupid because my reads are so inadequate at the moment. Putting almost everyone under "Might be willing to lynch".

Surely you have some town reads, or maybe some scum reads?

[Eevee]

eeVee - didn't like him buddying me for trying to hunt scum

I was sincerely thanking you of taking trying to get stuff done. Thought you'd appreciate the recognition for your efforts. Why do you think PPS might become a liability?

I tried to make a chart but I feel its almost stupid because my reads are so inadequate at the moment. Putting almost everyone under "Might be willing to lynch".

Surely you have some town reads, or maybe some scum reads?

I'll try to re-read tonight to be of some use for change.

[shark_bait]

Would be willing to Lynch
Robz

Might be willing to Lynch
Manda
PPS
YN
TC
Galz
Eevee
CF

With the might be list in order of most likely (If I weren't voting for Robz, I'd probably be voting one of these) to least likely (I don't 100% trust them, but I will not support a wagon against them)

[manda2014]

Wow! I'm gone all evening and the thread explodes. No time to post a reply right now; I'm at work until about 3 (forum time). I'll reread everything and post this afternoon.

[Captain_Frisk]

manda - you have a question waiting from me a few pages back.  Apparently I was buddying you by trying to get you to answer questions.

[Captain_Frisk]

PingPongSam - could be a liability later in the game

Could you explain this one a bit more for me?

As one example: I provide you with:

...I am entirely open to an opposing view... It would be a real travesty to accidentaly mislynch one of our PRs...

Damn, you're right, I come off like a real loose cannon maybe I should vote for myself. /sarcasm

PPS - can you elaborate on your view of shark bait? 

[Galzria]

My list is a bit light, but fwiw:

Willing to lynch

#1: Captain_Frisk
#2: Eevee
#3: Timchen
#4: Robz
#5: PPS
#6: Young_Nick
#7: Manda

Won't cast my vote for unless something drastic changes

#8: Shark_Bait

You can't make me vote for

#9: Myself

---

Manda is probably close to slipping down a group, as is YN.... But under the right circumstances I could see myself voting them, so I left them up there.

[Captain_Frisk]

So you have nobody in the "maybe" category?  You'd happily throw a vote down on all 7 of those folks?

[Galzria]

Ahh, perhaps I'm a little unfair to Fuzzy there. Flip him down to #4, bumping Timchen and Robz both up one.

[Galzria]

So you have nobody in the "maybe" category?  You'd happily throw a vote down on all 7 of those folks?

They are listed from most likely to least likely to receive my vote, and I noted #6 & #7 are close to sliding into "won't vote" category... But yes, any of them could be scum. I actually think PPS is right that S_B is rather scummy as well, but I won't vote someone who claimed on the day that they claimed, when 50% of the setups can check that claim.

[Young Nick]

So here's my list:

Willing to Lynch
Shark_Bait: I still can't shake that feeling that he's pretending to be n00bish, even though I more or less stand alone in this regard.

Might be Willing to Lynch
Robz: His general lack of commentary is off-putting.
Captain_Frisk: This one doesn't have much rationality behind it, but is a gut-feeling.
PingPongSam: He seems everywhere and not afraid to vote.
Eevee/Timchen: Lots of lurking so I can't really get much of a read here.
Manda: I agree with most of what she has to say.

Not Wiling to Lynch at the Moment
Galzria: I am getting a good vibe here.

Never in a Million Years Would I Dream of It
Young Nick: Hopefully this goes without say.

[shark_bait]

We really need to lynch someone tonight.  Assuming no interference from PR's, the following events will happen over the course of the next few days.

9 -> 7 -> 5 -> 3 (2 Mafia, 1 Town) = Game Over

We will lose 2 people a night/day, we can have 2 wrong lynches before it becomes imperative that we get it right.  Now look at what happens if we do a no lynch night.

9 -> 8 -> 6 -> 4 (2 Mafia, 2 Town) = Game Over

So if we choose a no lynch night EVER.  We LOSE with 2 wrong lynches.  This is in comparison to lynching every night which will put us on the brink of loss with 2 wrong lynches.  Keep in mind that this is assuming no PR interference and not correctly lynching the mafia.  But I think this is a good benchmark to keep in mind when thinking about how the game will move along in the future.

[Young Nick]

Hooray for Internet access and frequent recesses while on a jury!

[Young Nick]

I was talking to my friend who plays epicmafia and he was explaining to me that no lynch should be the way to go. I didn't really follow his logic, but he was very confident of it. Maybe he's just used to follow-the-cop, but is the NL something that we should consider more carefully, even if it does not provide us with quite the same amount of information? Is it worth it in that sense because we lose only 1 town compared to 2 (assuming no night-action interference)?

I guess it seems that f.DS is very much anti-NL, but maybe we suffer from groupthink.