Topic: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!) (Read 139004 times)

pingpongsam · « **Reply #275 on:** July 20, 2012, 11:22:02 am »

Quote from: Young Nick on July 20, 2012, 03:30:37 am

I have a similar question for all of you guys. If you were the cop, would you feel a need to investigate S_B tonight if he is still alive? If not, who would you investigate instead?

If Sharky made it to N1 alive I would certainly be interested to know if the D1 wagon was on course. However, if a new face jumps up D2 pressing for Sharky's head it could be strong softclaim to the cop role which would be dangerous for Town.

A night action is only going to happen on a deadline or a lynch and judging from previous games a lynch seems most likely. In that case I'd probably be looking at the hammer vote but it really depends on the circumstances of the lynch. I can't say there's a definite name I'd assign right now but that may change as we approach deadline. Failing any substantial lead I would possibly make a random selection to investigate.

All that said I've not seen the advantage of a D1 lynch but the pros tell me it's the thing to do.

Voltgloss · « **Reply #276 on:** July 20, 2012, 11:39:13 am »

Vote Count 1-9

Captain_Frisk (1): timchen
shark_bait (2): manda2014, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): Eevee, Captain_Frisk
pingpongsam (1): Robz888

Not Voting {3}: Galzria, shark_bait, pingpongsam

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #277 on:** July 20, 2012, 11:47:25 am »

Let's see if I can explain the D1 lynch concept.

First - lets look at the low number cases

3 people. Lynching 1 at random results in 2/3 chance of killing town. However - failing to do so lets mafia have a night kill - and the game is over. Clearly - lynching is the right decision.

4 people. This is a valid no lynch scenario. Lynching someone has a 3/4 chance of hitting town - and mislynching ends the game with a successful night kill. Lynching correctly also requires 3 people to agree - which is much harder than it would be if you were only trying to get 2 townspeople to agree.

5 people. With 2 mafia - you must lynch (see 3 people for reason). With 1 mafia - no lynching will take you to 4 people, another no lynch, and then to 3 people. Lynching then gives you a chance of hitting mafia before you're back to the 2-1 scenario.

---

Scaling up to the 9 person argument. If we don't lynch now, we're in the same position tomorrow, but with 1 fewer townie (not even counting the fact that we could lose town PR). The problem is that to successfully lynch scum today, we need 5 out of 7 townies to agree to do so. If we wait until tomorrow, we need 5 out of 6 townies. (this is harder!) Also - we now have gained 0 information regarding the wagons and the voting.

pingpongsam · « **Reply #278 on:** July 20, 2012, 11:52:20 am »

I can see how hitting a townie and going from 7 town to 5 town with information is better than 6 town with no new information except that the 1 dead guy was town.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #279 on:** July 20, 2012, 11:56:50 am »

Note - I don't know where i found this - and it wasn't easy - but I think that someone who kept stats over @ mafiascum for a bunch of newb games found that on average, mafia was lynched slightly less than the 22% that you'd expect from random lynching. So - yes - while the lynching will be steered by mafia, and we are very likely to hit town today - it isn't impossible. It just hasn't been done on these forums yet.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #280 on:** July 20, 2012, 04:18:46 pm »

Crickets?

Young Nick · « **Reply #281 on:** July 20, 2012, 04:43:48 pm »

Crickets.

pingpongsam · « **Reply #282 on:** July 20, 2012, 05:01:46 pm »

Frisk says we need to lynch but makes no effort to sniff a lynch.

Everyone else sits on their thumbs too.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #283 on:** July 20, 2012, 05:10:01 pm »

I'm voting!

pingpongsam · « **Reply #284 on:** July 20, 2012, 05:24:26 pm »

Touché

pingpongsam · « **Reply #285 on:** July 20, 2012, 05:30:13 pm »

Quote from: Captain_Frisk on July 20, 2012, 05:10:01 pm

I'm voting!

So, your vote basically reads, "everyone onto Sharky has pretty good reasons to be there but it sucks to get lynched D1, especially in your first game so I'm gonna cast a vote onto someone on the Sharky wagon with no further reasoning at all".

FoS C_F (yeah, I know some of you you hate that)

This certainly appears to be a Sharky scum buddy maneuver. That said, it's weak as hell without anything being thrown at manda.

Explain your vote on manda and try to be better about doing that than your reasons for not voting Sharky which are basically contradictory as hell.

Or maybe I took the whole thing out of context?

shark_bait · « **Reply #286 on:** July 20, 2012, 06:36:45 pm »

I'll chime in to say that yes, I've been keeping up on this and that I have my opinions. But given my situation, I've decided to just keep my mouth shut and let you guys start talking first.

Galzria · « **Reply #287 on:** July 20, 2012, 06:48:58 pm »

Alright, I said my piece up to date as of yesterday, and as nothing is being said really, I'll move things along:

Vote: Captain_Frisk

He's second on my list behind Timchen, and he's been... A little TOO cool. I don't know. I'm breaking tradition of voting something that looks super scummy, but turns out to be town, and instead I'm going on instinct. He's been rather too calm and collected, and just seems to fit the bill of where Mafia have sat comfortably D1 in the past.
f.DS has a big 0 on lynching Mafia D1, so it's time, I think, to try a different tact.

timchen · « **Reply #288 on:** July 20, 2012, 07:01:25 pm »

Galz, is your big suspicion looming on my head primarily comes from my claim that I read you as obv. town?

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #289 on:** July 21, 2012, 05:56:58 am »

I love that you are joining your #1 suspect in voting for your #2.

pingpongsam · « **Reply #290 on:** July 21, 2012, 09:42:01 am »

Quote from: Captain_Frisk on July 21, 2012, 05:56:58 am

I love that you are joining your #1 suspect in voting for your #2.

This is a terrible explanation for your vote on manda as requested.

Vote: Captain_Frisk

pingpongsam · « **Reply #291 on:** July 21, 2012, 09:43:04 am »

BTW, that's L-1 if I'm counting correctly.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #292 on:** July 21, 2012, 09:57:30 am »

Shark baits behavior is noob ish.

I feel that manda is savvy enough to know this and was trying to get him lynched anyway.

I am not scum.

Young Nick · « **Reply #293 on:** July 21, 2012, 10:33:27 am »

Quote from: pingpongsam on July 21, 2012, 09:43:04 am

BTW, that's L-1 if I'm counting correctly.

I am pretty sure no one has more than three votes on them?

Eevee · « **Reply #294 on:** July 21, 2012, 10:39:56 am »

Quote from: Young Nick on July 21, 2012, 10:33:27 am

Quote from: pingpongsam on July 21, 2012, 09:43:04 am
BTW, that's L-1 if I'm counting correctly.

I am pretty sure no one has more than three votes on them?

Yeah Frisk is at L-2.

pingpongsam · « **Reply #295 on:** July 21, 2012, 10:41:29 am »

I never calimed to be any good at counting.

Young Nick · « **Reply #296 on:** July 21, 2012, 10:44:36 am »

Quote from: pingpongsam on July 21, 2012, 10:41:29 am

I never calimed to be any good at counting.

Trying to induce confusion ==> obviously mafia.

Young Nick · « **Reply #297 on:** July 21, 2012, 10:44:48 am »

I jest, I jest.

Eevee · « **Reply #298 on:** July 21, 2012, 10:47:33 am »

All kidding aside, L-2 is already a serious lynch threat. While I'm not getting any special town vibe on Frisk, I'd like those voting stating their case against him clearly. This feels pretty hasty to me.

Voltgloss · « **Reply #299 on:** July 21, 2012, 10:53:05 am »

Vote Count 1-10

Captain_Frisk (3): timchen, Galzria, pingpongsam
shark_bait (2): manda2014, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): Eevee, Captain_Frisk
pingpongsam (1): Robz888

Not Voting {1}: shark_bait

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time

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Author Topic: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!) (Read 139004 times)