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[mgallop]

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201207/10/game-20120710-191235-ef000eb4.html

I just finished a game, where I won pretty easily. Part of it was pulling awesome stuff out of BM (I got Throne Room, Nobles and Tournament on a board w/ no villages, he got Native Village) but I maintain that my opponent lost in large part due to strategy. I went Amb/Amb, he went Potion/Amb for Familiar. My ambs didnt collide and I was able to clean out my deck and get some early Labs and eventually won going away. As I was winning my opponent started bemoaning my good luck, and I noted that I'd been very lucky with BM (and at avoiding Amb collision), but he had a different take on the game. However, my claim was that regardless of RNG luck, he was going to be in trouble because I was going to be able to clean out my deck while his was going to be junked up (by potion and losing Amb tennis). Thoughts?

22:06 shaytalis: sigh  You get all the luck
22:06 shaytalis: all the good cards from black market, you get 5 money in hand over and over early game, you always have ambasador + curse in hand
22:07 mgallop: I got lucky w/ BM
22:07 mgallop: but I think choosing to go Familiar in an ambassador game is a bad idea
22:07 shaytalis: Not just that, but you got to buy laboratory
22:08 shaytalis: that's what won it for you
22:08 shaytalis: You got to buy 3 of those early game
22:08 mgallop: possible
22:08 shaytalis: absolute
22:08 mgallop: but I also got double Amb
22:08 mgallop: which was huge
22:08 shaytalis: just dumb luck :/
22:08 mgallop: and you got potions which are basically curses
22:08 shaytalis: double amb is nothing
22:08 shaytalis: compared to you lucking out with 3 labs in the first few turns
22:09 mgallop: lab isnt any good if your deck is full of crap
22:09 shaytalis: Lab is what won you the game
22:09 shaytalis: lucking out and getting 5 $ over and over to pile them on is what won you the game
22:09 shaytalis: getting extra lucky and getting all the best cards, including tournament, from black market was just gravy
22:10 shaytalis: I can't win when you're that lucky
22:11 shaytalis: 3 labs... ambassador + curse in hand within 1 turn of getting any curse every time, all the best cards from black market...
22:12 shaytalis: enjoy the free win due to random dice :/

[shark_bait]

Opening Potion/Ambassador is just plain not good.  What's he going to do, give you curses that you just pass back?  That's just bad strategy.  Not to mention that the fact that HE got lucky even getting Familiar on the first reshuffle let alone at all.  He's got the same probability of getting Familiar with his opening as one would have opening Silver/Curse aiming for Witch.

[Powerman]

Plus, what is your opponent doing with all those moats?  And he plays Ambassador very poorly.  Like turn 5, ambassadoring 2 estates is better than just buying a black market.

[DG]

Familiars are the only cursers who can keep up with ambassadors but this is the wrong kingdom. From an ambassador start you can cut down and then drive through the deck each turn with labs, market, and oasis; always clearing the curses. If an ambassador deck needs a treasure based expansion then a familiar based deck might have a chance with the right supporting cards. Even then you don't want to start with ambassador/potion as you do need a lucky draw to buy the familiar.

[RisingJaguar]

While the above posts are right (your opponent made some poor decisions... like T3 doesn't even attack you iwth his ambassador?), but you make some mistakes yourself.  Why go double ambassador if you aren't trying to chuck your deck ASAP.    I think Ambassador/estate/3Xcopper, should almost always be 2 coppers back.  The only situation you wouldn't if you would be left with less than 3 coppers in your whole deck.  Buying the laboratory should have been chucking two coppers and buying a silver or something.  You know the curses are coming, set yourself up so you can fight it. 

Also tournament in my mind, is the easily the best card you can grab out of black market.  EASILY (maybe only curser too, but tournament is good early or late game). 

[qmech]

He's got the same probability of getting Familiar with his opening as one would have opening Silver/Curse aiming for Witch.

It's even worse: you're about 25% more likely to get the Witch, as you can also pick it up with 5 Coppers.