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[methods of rationality]

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201206/18/game-20120618-205741-58586196.html
I louse the race for king's courts and grand markets and thus louse the game. How could I have avoided this?

[eHalcyon]

Why did you open Nomad Camp, and then buy a second one on turn 6?  It doesn't look like it would be very useful in this kingdom.  If you plan on getting Grand market, you don't need NC for +Buy.  Meanwhile, Monument will get you some VP and not slow down your cycling.

[gorgonstar]

It's more important to buy KC than grand markets.  On turn 15 you buy a GM, when you could have bought a KC.

You opponent prepared better for his KC. 
KC -> monument = $6, 3VP
KC -> bishop = $3, 3VP+
KC -> wishing well = 3 cards+, 3 actions

I think after you get a gold, you can switch over to wishing wells.  You can't KC a silver and it slows down your deck cycling.

[DStu]

Don't want to say that you played perfectly, but maybe this game is also one where you can blame it on bad luck a bit. So there basically are no cards at $5 that you want, $4 is difficult.
Your opponents/you:
T3: $6/$4  Gold/Silver  huge difference
T4: $3/$5  WW/Royal Seal.  With the Gold in his deck, he can savely go for Cantrips already, which will be much better later than treasure with the KCs. You are "stuck" at $5, with nothing you really want. RS>Silver, but it's just another treasure that can't be KCed.
T5: $4/$6 WW/Gold. There finally is your Gold
T6: $7/$4 GM/NC.
T7: $7/$5 KC/RS

So could you have done something better? Probably. I wouldn't have bought the second RS for sure (as you have your Gold, maybe fall back to WW also already), opening NC vs. Monument is just a small difference for this start, and I really don't really think it's a mistake. You want your buys, even Woodcutters, to be in hand fast and not miss the reshuffle. The one points from early Monument plays does not matter much if you win the KC- and GM-split
But the variance of the draws is just higher for you opponent, and with nothing really good for $4 and $5 the early Gold is just huge, allowing him to take WWs for $3 without worrying for his economy, and getting the Cantrips to collide with the KCs later.

[Davio]

Bad luck escalation with GM and KC is pretty high.

This means that once you're behind, you'll almost never catch up.
His lucky Gold gets him to GM and KC sooner and once he KC'd his first card, you're basically dead.

On the other hand: Bad luck escalation with two BMU's competing is very low, but still existent.


So you played a little worse than your opponent and coupled with bad luck, you never had a chance.

[shark_bait]

Just a little comment about the Turn 6 NC buy, at that point, you had not seen your Nomad Camp come through that specific draw deck.  It follows then that there is a high probability of your newly purchased NC colliding with your already purchased NC. 

When playing with NC, you want to be very conscientious about what cards are left in your deck.  A well timed NC buy can make a huge difference in the game.  Also, opening NC in this set is a little questionable.  You get $4 on your Turn 2 meaning that you don't even get the benefit of using NC before you reshuffle.  It would be better to open Monument/Silver and only buy a NC when you absolutely know that first, it won't collide with another terminal and second, that it will help get you up to a higher $$$$ level.

[DStu]

When playing with NC, you want to be very conscientious about what cards are left in your deck.  A well timed NC buy can make a huge difference in the game.  Also, opening NC in this set is a little questionable.  You get $4 on your Turn 2 meaning that you don't even get the benefit of using NC before you reshuffle.  It would be better to open Monument/Silver and only buy a NC when you absolutely know that first, it won't collide with another terminal and second, that it will help get you up to a higher $$$$ level.

You reduce the probability of the $4 to miss the shuffle from 1/6 to 0. As early $6s are important (as we see here), I would say this is a larger benefit than the 1VP the Monument gives you.

[shark_bait]

When playing with NC, you want to be very conscientious about what cards are left in your deck.  A well timed NC buy can make a huge difference in the game.  Also, opening NC in this set is a little questionable.  You get $4 on your Turn 2 meaning that you don't even get the benefit of using NC before you reshuffle.  It would be better to open Monument/Silver and only buy a NC when you absolutely know that first, it won't collide with another terminal and second, that it will help get you up to a higher $$$$ level.

You reduce the probability of the $4 to miss the shuffle from 1/6 to 0. As early $6s are important (as we see here), I would say this is a larger benefit than the 1VP the Monument gives you.

It's not just 1-VP though.  End game, I would much rather have KC/Monument than KC/NC.  It's initially 1-VP, but everytime that it's played the VP's add up, especially with KC.  The question is whether or not the guarantee of not missing the reshuffle is  worth the potential points later down the road.  You've got a 17% chance of having the opening Monument miss... so I dunno.  You raise a really good point though and I'm quite curious as to what actually is best.

[DG]

The simulator favours silver/monument by a massive 65% to 35%, without even considering the king's court, from a 3/4 start.

Another way to play the nomad camp here is to open silver/silver and then buy nomad camps when you think the next draw is likely to contain 2 silvers. This seems too opportunistic though when monument is a strong alternative and royal seal will give you top deck opportunities as well. If the draws are giving no progress towards a grand market then royal seal with counting house could be worth considering too.

[DStu]

The simulator favours silver/monument by a massive 65% to 35%, without even considering the king's court, from a 3/4 start.

I wouldn't really trust the sims here, especially if they don't consider the KC. As said, the point is to use NC for an improved chance of an early Gold. I wouldn't priorize NC>Monument always, you obviously prefer Monument later as terminal Silvers, as you don't need the buys. Later, one terminal Silver more or less should not matter much, you have enough Actions from KCed GM/WW.
But you can buy these Monuments later, for the short-term the Monument is just a terminal Silver wihout any bonus, the NC gives you the 1/6 chance of not missing the first shuffle.