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[Galzria]

Oh, I know. I'm not going to make an analytical post. There's enough of those at the moment. I'm just going to combine the conclusions into an information post. Townie X suspects A, B, and C. He is suspected by Y and Z sort of thing. Those who want to comment more can read the full posts themselves. I just think a short condensed list will give us a good feel for where we're at as a whole.

[Galzria]

As for being busy, I hear ya. I've been in, out, and everywhere. Had a game today, practice on Friday, game on Tuesday... And I had family crash riding their bikes on Saturday at about 40 mph. Not fun. Sooo, ya. Having a lull here has been kinda nice. Still, with two days gone and 8 left, I want to keep us moving forward.

Also, as you point out, nothing from bozzball at all. Not even a "I'll be busy and away". Giving him the benefit of the doubt here, and I'll just assume he's caught up. Still Axxle, if you wouldn't mind pinging him tomorrow if we haven't heard?

Here, I'll add syntax to make sure you see this:

Vote: Axxle (That's the easiest way I can think to ping you in game).

[Galzria]

I would now like to call to order this town gathering. Our purpose here tonight is not to condemn anybody but instead to get a feeling for the general state of things. Obviously amongst our midst sit two very well disguised Mafiosi, so take a good long look at the person on either side of you. I've asked you all to fill out forms with your thoughts, and I feel we've all stepped up admirably. I've provided each of you a copy to review on pages 10 and 11. So without wasting any more time, allow me bring it all together. Please, if there is a mistake, hold your announcement until the end, and then feel free to voice it. Alright then, let's begin.

These will attempt to be organized by level of suspicion (highest first):

Insomniac suspects: Voltgloss, Robz888
Jotheonah suspects: Voltgloss, Robz888
Kuildeous suspects: Robz, Galzria, Voltgloss
Voltgloss suspects: Insomniac? Jotheonah? You've switched to a more defensive sit-and-wait strategy. Not totally sure where you stand.
Robz888 suspects: Jotheonah, Insomniac, Voltgloss
Galzria suspects: Kuildeous, Jotheonah, Voltgloss, Bozzball
Bozzball suspects: n/a

I will drop all but the first three suspects for each person:

Voltgloss: Suspected by 4 people
Robz888: Suspected by 3 people
Jotheonah: Suspected by 3 people
Galzria: Suspected by 2 people
Insomniac: Suspected by 2 people
Kuildeous: Suspected by 1 person
Bozzball: Suspected by 0 people.

Well gentleman, there you have it. Feel free to mention corrections and I encourage everyone to consider if those were actual votes. How would you feel if that's how it ended today?

[Axxle]

As for being busy, I hear ya. I've been in, out, and everywhere. Had a game today, practice on Friday, game on Tuesday... And I had family crash riding their bikes on Saturday at about 40 mph. Not fun. Sooo, ya. Having a lull here has been kinda nice. Still, with two days gone and 8 left, I want to keep us moving forward.

Also, as you point out, nothing from bozzball at all. Not even a "I'll be busy and away". Giving him the benefit of the doubt here, and I'll just assume he's caught up. Still Axxle, if you wouldn't mind pinging him tomorrow if we haven't heard?

Here, I'll add syntax to make sure you see this:

Vote: Axxle (That's the easiest way I can think to ping you in game).

I now read at the minimum all bolded text, so you can reach me through that.  I'll message bozball as per Misc rule #5 and #7.  If he doesn't respond in a reasonable manner he will be replaced

[Robz888]

Let me just quickly say that this has been the most astonishingly busy weekend for me in months. I haven't played a single Isotropic game since Thursday, and I don't think I have ever not played Dominion two days in a row since, well, ever.

I will certainly post more starting Monday afternoon.

[bozzball]

I'm back. Wasn't really expecting anything to happen over the weekend. Hi guys!

[bozzball]

I think I should probably sit out of future mafia games. Feeling a bit guilty really, but I don't have a good idea of whose behaviour is more suspect. Seems you all have a better understanding of the human psyche than I do...

[Robz888]

I think I should probably sit out of future mafia games. Feeling a bit guilty really, but I don't have a good idea of whose behaviour is more suspect. Seems you all have a better understanding of the human psyche than I do...

I'm not bothered by some people being less active than others, or less active at certain times... but don't doubt yourself! Unless you are the mafia. Then you should be filled with self-doubt, and confess your scummy crimes to us.

[Voltgloss]

Voltgloss suspects: Insomniac? Jotheonah? You've switched to a more defensive sit-and-wait strategy. Not totally sure where you stand.

Had an extremely busy weekend, as it seems most everyone else did.  Was also hoping to hear from all players (i.e., bozzball as well) before posting more of substance.  Really not sure how to proceed with bozzball's most recent post.

I will say this, in response to jotheonah's asking why I thought catching Morgrim in a lie was so damning:

My RL profession is attorney*.  Catching people in lies is part of what I do for a living.  In a legal case, if you can catch the other side's witness in a lie or a contradiction, their credibility takes a huge hit.  If they're lying about X, aren't they more likely to be lying about everything else they're saying?  The answer to that question is a resounding "yes."  It's one of the most basic and simultaneously most difficult tasks to accomplish during the pendency of a legal case. 

So, yes, I found Morgrim's lie damning.  That is the reason why I "retracted my unvote":  because he did the one thing that, in my eyes, could cement his status as someone posting falsehoods:  posting a falsehood.

See also this post of Kuildeous's:

Oh, it’s not a willful unhelpfulness, jotheonah. It’s simply recognizing that without much information, the first day is pretty much a random lynch. In person, I’m sure it’s easy to catch someone in a lie. In a forum, not so much. People have the time to frame their lies so they are not as easy to dissect. None of the posts in the first day helped me choose my suspect, and going beyond that wasn’t going to provide me with any more information. Though, I do have to confess that first-day ramblings are shown in a whole different light once blood is drawn.

The bolded part is absolutely true.  When I have played Mafia before, it has always been face-to-face.  (I have never played forum-based Mafia before.)  Catch someone in a lie, you've almost always got yourself Mafia.  Or, at the very least, a lot higher than a 2/9 random chance of getting Mafia.  In a forum - it's a lot harder to catch someone in a lie.  But you can do it!  And if it's that much harder in a forum to tease out someone's lies, isn't it that much more damning to actually catch someone in one?

Which is why I find it rather surprising that I'm being suspected primarily for retracting my unvote offer.  To which I say two things:

1.  I was the one who started the "let's wait for Tables" approach.  The only reason I retracted my "unvote" offer was because Morgrim did the absolute single most incriminating thing he could possibly do:  lie.  To my mind, if you lie and get caught, you are vastly more likely to be Mafia.  Morgrim lied and got caught.  Why wouldn't I put my money where my mouth is by increasing the pressure on him? 

2.  And if I were Mafia and playing a very advanced game, why would I retract anyway?  Wouldn't it be safer to simply sit and wait for Tables and THEN leave my vote unchanged?  It's not like there was any ebb in the suspicion of Morgrim at the time I "retracted my unvote offer."  He still had a pile of votes on him.  What strategic advantage, from a Mafia point of view, would there be to wait?  (Knowing that, if I were Mafia (which I am not), I'd be weathering suspicion on Day 2 for leading the charge in lynching someone who wound up to be a townie)

Let me also add this, from one of the few other people we know to be a confirmed townie on this board (from Mafia I):

No one has ever stated a case for lynching me other than the fact that I targeted TINAS early on, and that I have not wavered from that position.  This is the behavior of a townie.  Not a mafioso.  Real mafia hedge.  They deceive.  They waver back and forth.  They act suspiciously.

This is what I did, as soon as I felt a particular player (Morgrim) had done enough to warrant SERIOUS suspicion.  (Not "voice doubts about someone to get them to react" suspicion.  Which I freely admit I did towards several others.  As did the rest of you.  That's the game!)  But as soon as I seriously targeted Morgrim (via vote), I never wavered from that. 

Was my suspicion of Morgrim wrong?  Ultimately, yes.  He was playing such a poor town game it looked like a Mafia game.  That's unfortunate.  But given his and everyone else's actions, he was the most likely person to be mafia in Day 1.  Can anyone dispute this?  (I don't think anyone is.)  Then, why is single-minded pursuit of the most suspicious person on Day 1 itself a cause for suspicion?

Finally, as to who I suspect - there is one person who:

1.  I have caught in a lie on Day 2;

2.  when called on it, brushed it off as a "mistake," and countered by arguing that my interest in dissecting lies is itself suspicious;  and

3.  in the first of the two posts offered in R#258 as evidence in his defense (as examples of him having significant misgivings about Morgrim's guilt), presented a post made after Morgrim had already hanged himself.  So by the time of that post, if jotheonah is Mafia, he knew the lynch was successful by then and had every reason to IMMEDIATELY start distancing himself from the lynch he helped create.  No one but Mafia would have a reason to do this before Morgrim's alignment was revealed.  A townie who believed Morgrim's guilt would stand by the courage of his convictions.  A Mafioso helping engineer the lynch of a hidden innocent would back away from the results as quickly as he could.

So that's why my suspicions, right now, lie squarely on jotheonah.  Not Insomniac or Kuildeous, despite their suspecting me strongly now, because their recent behavior strikes me as significantly less suspicious than jotheonah's.

[Voltgloss]

Whoops, forgot to include the footnote referenced by the * after giving my RL occupation.  So here it is.

*I did not reveal my occupation round 1 for two reasons: 

(1) I did not want to be seen as presenting my RL occupation as a reason why my arguments should be granted additional weight.  However, now that my reasoning has been called into question, I think it's important to reference my occupation as a reason why I think the way I do. 

(2) theory's occupation did him no favors in round 1 of his game. 

[jotheonah]

Was my suspicion of Morgrim wrong?  Ultimately, yes.  He was playing such a poor town game it looked like a Mafia game.  That's unfortunate.  But given his and everyone else's actions, he was the most likely person to be mafia in Day 1.  Can anyone dispute this?  (I don't think anyone is.)  Then, why is single-minded pursuit of the most suspicious person on Day 1 itself a cause for suspicion?

Finally, as to who I suspect - there is one person who:

1.  I have caught in a lie on Day 2;

Let's look more closely at my alleged lie.

jotheonah's summary leaves out (1) my having already voted well before this exchange took place, (2) my voicing interest in hearing Tables' analysis, (3) Galzria laying down the third vote before Tables had an opportunity to return with more analysis, (4) Robz's suspicion of Tables, (5) Tables leaning towards suspicion of Morgrim in his last (#218) post, and (6) the fact that no one had an opportunity to unvote in response to Tables' announced discomfort with the 4th vote, because of Morgrim's suicide.

I question why someone other than Mafia would choose to accuse someone by using a flawed version of the facts.

(1) Not true. The quote you referenced as evidence was a summary paragraph where I was discussing both your and Robz' behavior collectively. The "penultimate vote" was a reference to Robz.

(2) Yes, I left out some things that weren't relevant to the case I was building. Isn't that how one makes a case, Mr. Attorney?

(3) The third vote is considerably less suspicious to me than the fourth - or for that matter the first. In a concerted mafia effort, I fully expect one to lead the charge and one to egg it on if it starts to slog down. Though, as I've said, I now believe, with Galzria, that the second mafioso did not vote.

(4) This doesn't contradict the story I was laying out. It can easily be explained by Robz trying to set himself up with an excuse for the suspicious behavior of not waiting for Tables' analysis after he turned up dead.

(5) All I said was "there was reason to believe Tables' post would exonerate Morgrim." And there were reasons, outside of post #218. The fact that he was warning us about a premature lynching, discussed being uncomfortable with how fast things are moving, and had shown himself to be a very independent, town-minded player. Threat #1 for the mafia, as we found out.

(6) Far from omitting that, I made a point of bemoaning it in my post.

Where is my lie, Volts? is it this?

Then Voltgloss told Robz not to vote yet and said he wouldn't vote, but after catching Morgrim in a lie, he voted.

Voltgloss has pointed out this statement was inaccurate - He had already voted.  After catching Morgrim in a lie, he re-affirmed his vote and encouraged others to vote.  This does not substantively alter the case against him, and if you look at the post in question, his wording and use of bold, thinking it was a vote was an easy mistake to make. And that is exactly what it was.

2.  when called on it, brushed it off as a "mistake," and countered by arguing that my interest in dissecting lies is itself suspicious;  and

Let's look at what I actually said.

Volt is right, Morgrim was doing himself in. But in retrospect, certain voices were amplifying the suspiciousness of his actions. I especially want to know why Morgrim's "lie" and my, if I might make a suggestion, very similar "twisting of the facts" are quite as damning as Voltgloss wants them to be. Volts has shown himself good at zeroing in on sloppy analysis and reframing it as manipulative lying. So far that instinct has only hurt us.

Did I say his behavior in pointing out lies was suspicious? No, I did not. (Look at that, I've caught you in a lie!) What I did say, and stand by, is that he has used it as a source of conviction once, and that ended with us lynching a townie. This instance will end the same way. His record here speaks for itself.

3.  in the first of the two posts offered in R#258 as evidence in his defense (as examples of him having significant misgivings about Morgrim's guilt), presented a post made after Morgrim had already hanged himself.  So by the time of that post, if jotheonah is Mafia, he knew the lynch was successful by then and had every reason to IMMEDIATELY start distancing himself from the lynch he helped create.  No one but Mafia would have a reason to do this before Morgrim's alignment was revealed.  A townie who believed Morgrim's guilt would stand by the courage of his convictions.  A Mafioso helping engineer the lynch of a hidden innocent would back away from the results as quickly as he could.

So that's why my suspicions, right now, lie squarely on jotheonah.  Not Insomniac or Kuildeous, despite their suspecting me strongly now, because their recent behavior strikes me as significantly less suspicious than jotheonah's.

I've addressed twice now why I tried to unvote Morgrim: to give the town more time in a decision (A) we seemed a little unsure on (B) I was, truly and admittedly, unsure on. It was an action done in the hopes of saving an innocent man, nad had it succeeded, that's what it would have accomplished.

One other Voltgloss point. He's asked me why I suspect the mafia of being advanced players. Simply because they have not done anything sloppy and, oh yeah, they somehow managed to kill our cop on day one. They are winning this game. That's evidence enough.


All of that said, as much of a thorn in my side as I am finding Voltgloss right now, I suspect him less of being mafia than I did before.

Galzria and others have convinced me that probably only one of the voters is mafia. At the end of my last post, I said as much, and that I would be dropping my case against either Volt or Robz.  I think a mafia would have responded to that hint by trying to get on my good side. Volt responded by stepping up his attack against me. That's points in favor of him being town, in my book.

[Galzria]

Jothronah makes a good point, and I've alluded to it in the past:

There was only a single post between Robz888's vote #4, and Morgrim7 killing himself.

This is rather important because nobody got a chance to respond to a very new situation. For Jotheonah's case in particular, it is a huge straw-man argument to make condemning him for the timing of his retracted vote. He either retracts it while Morgrim7 has 3 votes, or he never gets the chance to.

Now, I've made the argument that he shouldn't have been in the pool of votes at all if he was having doubts, and I think that's a fair case. But to get on him over the retracted vote during that time span? Come on. Really? If he is Mafia, how very stupid would that look? Whereas if he's town, having an "Oh shit, what just happened?" moment is MUCH more likely. He was the first responder. How ELSE would he respond to Morgrim's killing of himself?

Jotheonah: Not of the clear in my book, but looking more like the "excitable townie" you claim to be.

Voltgloss: I'll admit to being a bit lost in the whole "caught in a lie thing here, but I'll go back and throughly reread (again). I'm already a little wary of the way you and Robz888 put together some of your arguments for Morgrim. I fully acknowledge he did next to nothing to help his own case, but I've seen a lot of straw-man arguments from you two. It got Morgrim killed. IF you are a townie, watch that you don't build an empty case against another possible innocent here.

[Kuildeous]

Which is why I find it rather surprising that I'm being suspected primarily for retracting my unvote offer.

I'm not suspicious of you because you reversed the unvote proclamation. I'm suspicious because your actions did not reflect your words. Not really a lie, but it's curious. If you were so worried about a premature execution, why didn't you unvote as early as possible to prevent five votes from accumulating? It easily could have happened. You said that you would unvote on the condition that Morgrim gets a fourth vote. How would you have guaranteed that? A fifth vote could have easily fallen against Morgrim before you had the chance to unvote. I don't think you were that concerned about removing your vote.

I've been thinking about this over the weekend, and there is one other person who claims to have misgivings about the guilt of Morgrim while not really doing anything about it. His actions also do not reflect his words. That person is jotheonah. The big difference here is that he made his claim after Morgrim's fate was sealed. As I said, this could have been him misinterpreting the rules, or it could be an attempt to cover up his actions. Just like Voltgloss, he claims to be less than certain of Morgrim's guilt while keeping his vote squarely on him.

So, it's my belief that one of these two is Mafia. The way they have been pointing fingers at each other makes me believe they're not both Mafia. Or they are willing to sacrifice one so that the other is utterly trusted—a risky ploy. For now, I'm willing to drop my suspicions of Robz and Galzria. They're still on my radar, but Voltgloss and jotheonah have raised some serious flags that Robz and Galzria have not.

Which one am I leaning toward? This is a tough one. Voltgloss was pretty vocal early on about being willing to unvote, but he could have easily unvoted and then reapplied the vote once he had a reason. Instead, he merely promised to unvote and then retracted that promise once he had a reason. This is a game of action, and that passive stance does not sit well with me.

But at least Voltgloss is pretty steady in his accusation, while jotheonah threw accusations around left and right. Perhaps he was trying to find something that stuck. I had a tickle of suspicion when jotheonah posted in #64 that I was worthy of suspicion for posting silly comments even though others engaged in silly behavior early on too. That suspicion was allayed when I realized that he wasn't specifically singling me out. It struck me as a strange reason to suspect someone, but it is behavior that I'd expect from a self-confessed enthusiastic newbie.

I'm teetering, but I'm feeling pretty confident that it's one of these two.

[Kuildeous]

By the way, even though the deadline is June 1, I will be voting much sooner than that. I will be at Origins that week. I should be able to follow along between slots, but my focus will be on other games.

I'll hold off until the others have had a chance to speak.

[Voltgloss]

I'll hold off on responding to jotheonah because I think it better for the rest of the town to weigh in on our dispute (like Galzria has done) before either of us chime back in to support our arguments.  Otherwise we may just get walls o' text going back and forth (I admit I am prone to wall-o-text syndrome). 

I do have two quick thoughts in response to what Galzria has just posted to me.

I'm already a little wary of the way you and Robz888 put together some of your arguments for Morgrim. I fully acknowledge he did next to nothing to help his own case, but I've seen a lot of straw-man arguments from you two. It got Morgrim killed.

1.  Which Day 1 arguments do you see as straw-man arguments (to the extent you have not already identified them)?  And, which of us - me or Robz - advanced or supported those arguments?  Make sure not to lump us together too blithely:  if Robz made a point that I did not echo, that means I did not find it compelling or relevant.  I assume Robz felt the same.

I do recall you've already said that you thought the whole "vote for no lynch = suspicious" argument is a straw man.  I disagree with your position (as I understand it) that it is entirely irrelevant; but, I agree that by itself it was not sufficient cause for strong suspicion to be thrown on Morgrim (or jotheonah, for that matter;  you will note I have not brought that up as a reason for suspecting jotheonah during Day 2, as I think its probative value as to the vote originator (jotheonah) is too weak to be useful, compared to its probative value as to a bandwagoner (Morgrim)).  Which is why I did not vote for Morgrim until my suspicions had solidified due to other factors, as laid out in the post where voted for him.

I have not yet had a chance to go over Robz's posts in detail, but I do remember at least one post where he jumped on Morgrim for using the phrase "I claim to be a townie" rather than saying "I am a townie," or something to that effect.  I'm not suggesting that post is enough to cast suspicion on Robz.  But it is the kind of post that, because I did not echo it in my own accusation posts, I did not think was actually relevant to the question of Morgrim's guilt.  Are there more such posts from Robz?  Are there such posts from me?  I encourage you and others to review with this question in mind and voice your conclusions for us to discuss.

IF you are a townie, watch that you don't build an empty case against another possible innocent here.

2.  Absolutely right.  Which is why I have not voted for jotheonah.  I think he is suspicious; I think he is currently the most suspicious among us; but I am not sufficiently suspicious yet to be convinced enough to vote.  If further events/analysis cast someone else as more suspicious than jotheonah, I certainly won't stick to accusing jotheonah simply because he is being, to use an apropos phrase, a thorn in my side. 

Finally - and this doesn't seem to be a very contentious point, but I think it's worth noting - bozzball's recent actions plant him pretty firmly as "town" in my eyes.  Mainly because I was watching to see when he most recently logged into the forum to check it, as I was curious whether he saw the results of Day 1's night kill and was sitting back waiting for discussion to play out.  Turns out that the last time he logged into the forum before his most recent post was midday Friday - i.e., BEFORE the nightkill results were posted by Axxle.  I have to believe that if he were Mafia, he would have checked the forum Friday night to see whether he and his compatriot killed a town role.  The fact that he didn't suggests "town" to me.

Pre-post edit:  Just saw Kuildeous's post.  One quick question.

I've been thinking about this over the weekend, and there is one other person who claims to have misgivings about the guilt of Morgrim while not really doing anything about it. His actions also do not reflect his words. That person is jotheonah. The big difference here is that he made his claim after Morgrim's fate was sealed. As I said, this could have been him misinterpreting the rules, or it could be an attempt to cover up his actions. Just like Voltgloss, he claims to be less than certain of Morgrim's guilt while keeping his vote squarely on him.

After my post where I voted for Morgrim, when during Day 1 did I say I had misgivings about Morgrim's guilt?  For that matter, when during Day 2 have I said that I was less than certain about Morgrim's guilt?

[Voltgloss]

I forgot to address something mentioned by Kuildeous.  I don't want to be accused of ignoring it, so:

I'm not suspicious of you because you reversed the unvote proclamation. I'm suspicious because your actions did not reflect your words. Not really a lie, but it's curious. If you were so worried about a premature execution, why didn't you unvote as early as possible to prevent five votes from accumulating? It easily could have happened. You said that you would unvote on the condition that Morgrim gets a fourth vote. How would you have guaranteed that? A fifth vote could have easily fallen against Morgrim before you had the chance to unvote. I don't think you were that concerned about removing your vote.

At the time I made the offer, I did not expect anyone would quickhammer to 5 if someone brought us to 4.  Doing so would have been incredibly suspicious if Morgrim turned out to be townie, given my (and, later, others') asking people to wait for Tables' analysis.  So I assumed that if someone made the 4th vote, there would be plenty of time for me to log in, see it, and unvote if necessary. 

I did not expect Morgrim to quickhammer himself.  Who could possibly have expected that (from a townie)?

As for why I didn't just unvote to begin with?  I didn't think it proper to retract my vote for Morgrim when nothing had actually yet happened to reduce my suspicion of him.  Remember, at the time I was strongly convinced Morgrim was Mafia.  Why should I let up the pressure if it wasn't necessary?  3 votes is more pressure than 2, and doesn't threaten a quickhammer like 4.  It seemed the right level of pressure to keep things at.

It wasn't lost on me that we had just recently had 3 votes on someone I did not suspect nearly as much as Morgrim, and while that situation was remedied when Galzria changed his vote, I was concerned that it could crop up again if the pressure eased off of Morgrim too early.

[Kuildeous]

After my post where I voted for Morgrim, when during Day 1 did I say I had misgivings about Morgrim's guilt?  For that matter, when during Day 2 have I said that I was less than certain about Morgrim's guilt?

I concluded that you were not so sure about Morgrim's vote based on this line:

If a 4th vote for Morgrim comes in before Tables returns, I will likely unvote to prevent a premature hammer-dropping.

It's true that you didn't say it outright, but that line indicates doubt about Morgrim's guilt. Yet, you did not simply unvote, which would have been a stronger indication of that doubt.

Although, in hunting down that quote, I realize now that you made no such promise. You said you would "likely unvote." That still could be a cover-up, but it's less damning than I initially thought.

I was not referring to your misgiving in Day 2…only on Day 1.

[Voltgloss]

Just so there is no confusion, here is my entire post from which Kuildeous has excerpted, for those assessing whether it indicates doubt about Morgrim's guilt:

Also, I would suggest that those others who have expressed an interest in voting Morgrim but have not yet done so (Robz, Insomniac) please wait and NOT drop the hammer until after Tables has had a chance to complete and provide his analysis this evening.  I am very interested to hear Tables' thoughts before we move to a final decision.

If a 4th vote for Morgrim comes in before Tables returns, I will likely unvote to prevent a premature hammer-dropping.  But if Tables' analysis does not convince me my suspicions of Morgrim are misplaced, I will be reinstating my vote.

Correction for typo:  What is the "something" you are trying to find out?

Who is likely to be killed now that I am dead?

Morgrim, why are you trying to find this out?  I can see at least two possible reasons, but I would like to know yours.

[Galzria]

Volts, the continuous pointing to Morgrim's No Lynch vote is the biggest thing, but jumping on him in post #210 also stood out. I didn't feel like his statement was a bald-faced lie, and given how available those facts were for you to check, it seemed an innocent mistake to me. He did say so shortly after that too, but you allowed that to be your motivator to not rescind your vote. It felt rather shallow to me.

Also, you did express some doubt in post #187 about Morgrim, although you did note not enough to rescind your vote at that time.

[jotheonah]

Which is why I find it rather surprising that I'm being suspected primarily for retracting my unvote offer.

I'm not suspicious of you because you reversed the unvote proclamation. I'm suspicious because your actions did not reflect your words. Not really a lie, but it's curious. If you were so worried about a premature execution, why didn't you unvote as early as possible to prevent five votes from accumulating? It easily could have happened. You said that you would unvote on the condition that Morgrim gets a fourth vote. How would you have guaranteed that? A fifth vote could have easily fallen against Morgrim before you had the chance to unvote. I don't think you were that concerned about removing your vote.

I've been thinking about this over the weekend, and there is one other person who claims to have misgivings about the guilt of Morgrim while not really doing anything about it. His actions also do not reflect his words. That person is jotheonah. The big difference here is that he made his claim after Morgrim's fate was sealed. As I said, this could have been him misinterpreting the rules, or it could be an attempt to cover up his actions. Just like Voltgloss, he claims to be less than certain of Morgrim's guilt while keeping his vote squarely on him.

So, it's my belief that one of these two is Mafia. The way they have been pointing fingers at each other makes me believe they're not both Mafia. Or they are willing to sacrifice one so that the other is utterly trusted—a risky ploy. For now, I'm willing to drop my suspicions of Robz and Galzria. They're still on my radar, but Voltgloss and jotheonah have raised some serious flags that Robz and Galzria have not.

I would urge you to take another look at the entirety of Robz' first day behavior and the case I and others have advanced against him before you dismiss him. He's raised fewer flags mainly because he's yet to really weigh in on Day 2's discussion.

Which one am I leaning toward? This is a tough one. Voltgloss was pretty vocal early on about being willing to unvote, but he could have easily unvoted and then reapplied the vote once he had a reason. Instead, he merely promised to unvote and then retracted that promise once he had a reason. This is a game of action, and that passive stance does not sit well with me.

But at least Voltgloss is pretty steady in his accusation, while jotheonah threw accusations around left and right. Perhaps he was trying to find something that stuck. I had a tickle of suspicion when jotheonah posted in #64 that I was worthy of suspicion for posting silly comments even though others engaged in silly behavior early on too. That suspicion was allayed when I realized that he wasn't specifically singling me out. It struck me as a strange reason to suspect someone, but it is behavior that I'd expect from a self-confessed enthusiastic newbie.

I'm teetering, but I'm feeling pretty confident that it's one of these two.

So the question you need to answer is which is more suspicious: conviction/consistency or excitability/flexibility? Just keep in mind that the mafia already know who they're trying to kill. They're the ones who can afford conviction.

But in fact, Voltgloss and I both voted sparingly (Morgrim was the only person I cast a vote for on Day 1, if I remember right) and accused widely (in fact, Galzria attacked Voltgloss for throwing around accusations early on Day 1).  So I'm not positive the difference you articulate is so substantial.

Early in the game, I admit I was grasping at threads in order to get a good conversation going. I'm not convinced that was productive, but I think everyone was doing pretty much that until some real scum tells (or what appeared to be scum tells) began to emerge.

[Robz888]

All of that said, as much of a thorn in my side as I am finding Voltgloss right now, I suspect him less of being mafia than I did before.

Galzria and others have convinced me that probably only one of the voters is mafia. At the end of my last post, I said as much, and that I would be dropping my case against either Volt or Robz.  I think a mafia would have responded to that hint by trying to get on my good side. Volt responded by stepping up his attack against me. That's points in favor of him being town, in my book.

I don't really understand this at all, and it's sort of emblematic of why you have emerged, in my view, as the most suspicious Morgrim voter, when I initially suspected Galzria and Volt much more. All four of us killed this guy, the wrong guy, and there are fair reasons why each of us is supicious (Galzria was all over the place, Volt and I read like we are working in tandem, you expressed hesitance but didn't retract). But now you sound a lot to me like a mafia picking his next target. "I would be dropping my case against either Volt or Robz." This isn't a prosecution. You can suspect both of us. (Indeed, I sympathize with suspecting both of us.) Volt is mostly saying things that I also think about you, and have said ever since you started hedging your bets.

I'm already a little wary of the way you and Robz888 put together some of your arguments for Morgrim. I fully acknowledge he did next to nothing to help his own case, but I've seen a lot of straw-man arguments from you two. It got Morgrim killed.

This is a valid point. I full admit to hammering Morgrim hard. There were a lot of things that made me suspicious of him. But some of the things I said about him I said because I hoped it would provoke him, and possibly get him to confess or say something really incriminating. Or, if he respond reasonably, I might have reconsidered my vote. It's so hard to make these calls and read people, and one way of doing this is to provoke and irritate. I wouldn't have done this to him if I didn't already have strong suspicions. But so long as the mafia behave like rational people, it is hard to figure them out. I was hoping to provoke him into behaving irrationally, so that we could learn for certain whether he was mafia. (You can check the other game for evidence of this play style.) And let me point out, I did succeed at getting him to act irrationally... but instead of saying something that truly revealed his allegiance, he offed himself. And I am sorry about that.

Jtheonah's belated unvote of Morgrim read like an early attempt to create a narrative for himself, "I didn't really suspect poor, innocent Morgrim, I was confused by these other three." Perhaps that's a wise thing to do whether you're town or mafia. But I strongly suspect that 'hedging' is more likely to be a mafia thing to do, rather than a town thing.

All this is not to say that I now think jtheonah is mafia and Galz and Volt are totally in the clear. (Also, Galz and j could both be mafia.) Indeed, I said earlier that if not for j's post-morgrim behavior, I would probably suspect him the least. But I don't like how he's acting.

[Galzria]

For the record, and as I've stated previously, I too am "less" suspicious of Robz888. While he didn't come out firing everywhere, he did cast probes of suspicion early on to places other than Morgrim. Tables, Bozzball, and Kuildeous. Now, he didn't follow up on them, but I got the feeling that by the time he really got involved his mind was already made up. Remember, he was the first person to really level any real suspicions, and that started before post #100. So his tactics don't feel to far fetched from his stated norm.

Now, that doesn't completely clear him in my book. He wasn't stirring random pots, which I appreciated, but I thought his arguments were often weak. I wish he would say a bit more here, but I understand he's busy, and Mafia I is in a much more pressing state right now. Still, waiting before judgment, but I will note that he could NOT know he was casting the kill vote on Morgrim.

Right now, his "crimes" just seen less egregious.

[Galzria]

Ah, he just posted. Will review and update thoughts on Robz.

[jotheonah]

Robz, let me explain the end comment about Voltgloss. Neither of you is in the clear as far as I'm concerned. Heck, none of us is.
However, I'm convinced one of the two of you is mafia. A mafioso at this point is trying to get enough people on his side to not get lynched. I mean, we all are, but that is the mafioso's primary objective, whereas our primary objective as town is to kill the mafia.

So, at the end of my post, I suggested that (A) Galzria has convinced me that it's far more likely one of you is mafia than both of you and that (B) in my next post I was going to review your posts and make a case for which of you is the most likely. It occurred to me that a mafioso reading that would see an opportunity to shake off one accuser by trying to influence me toward picking the other one. Volt didn't do that. But then, maybe my support is a liability at this point because so many people are so suspicious of me.

Robz, it jumps out at me about your most recent post:

All this is not to say that I now think jtheonah is mafia and Galz and Volt are totally in the clear. (Also, Galz and j could both be mafia.) Indeed, I said earlier that if not for j's post-morgrim behavior, I would probably suspect him the least. But I don't like how he's acting.

So you admit that your "case" against me is entirely based on Day 2. And so is everybody, for that matter.  Whereas, the cases I've advanced against Robz and Voltgloss are based on their Day 1 actions. Day 1 actions are much more informational because they are informed by our new information about who died.

Why would you be more convinced by a case built on recent events surrounding people whose identities are still unknown then one built on older events informed by the known identities of Morgrim and Tables?

What is it that you don't like about how I'm acting?

On Day 2 I've been (1) remorseful about killing a townie and (2) adamant about finding the killer. Which of those troubles you?

[jotheonah]

The problem with not being allowed to edit is you can post about how something is "more informational because its informed by information" and you get stuck with it. Not my finest literary moment.