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[Robz888]

Actually bump TINAS up to Certain Town.  The biggest reason I made a delayed vote was to see how people would react, and looking back at the thread TINAS seemed to genuinely not care if he was lynched or not even after I made my comment.

I think he made an attempt to avoid being lynched, they just weren't very convincing attempts, so he shut up, and hey, that worked.

[ftl]

Lynching people because they play poorly is.. well... poor play, ironically.

I also find your desire for town's success a bit.. poorly acted.

Poorly acted? Really?

Not acting, is truth.


TINAS has made no real effort to find out who's Mafia among the people accusing him. He's been defensive and unable to be straight and honest about anything. As far as I can tell TINAS hasn't really done anything that would mark him as Town. Axxle, what makes you so sure he's town?
 
As far as I can tell, TINAS is either mafia, or

Hell, I've even stolen someone's identity on IRC and messaged other people about "who we should kill tonight", framing them to be lynched immeditaely. And I wasn't even mafia. I did it for laughs and man... it was hilarious.

might as well be one.

Hey, maybe he's a townie pretending to be a Mafia pretending to be a townie! Well, if that's the case, he's got the first level of pretending right

It's a pretty basic rule of mafia: The first person to have a bandwagon vote against them is 90% of the time not mafia,

90%? Are you sure it's 90% and not just a bit below 80%?

[O]

90%? Are you sure it's 90% and not just a bit below 80%?

Well for you its 1/8, but we'll breach that issue later  .

[Davio]

I'm sticking with Theory, who, according to his own words "reads every post ever made on the forum", but somehow can't find the time to react here or give us some more info.
Therefore my vote still stands.

My anxiousness to get the day over with and lynch someone already is just because I have this feeling we're going in circles. I would almost say "I don't even care who", but I do care about myself, I want to keep playing and I want to find the mafiosi.

I like having TINAS in the game because every post by him generates like six posts about that post. Of course the object of the game is to lynch mafiosi, but having him around and if he is Townie this may make it easier.

And maybe he's just playing us all as the Godfather, yet that's a risk I'm willing to take at this point. I think we can get more info from both townies and mafiosi with him around at this point. The time may come when he's overplayed his hand or we're all sick and tired of him, but for me this is not yet that time.

That being said I can see why you guys would vote for him and feel free to do so; I'm not defending him, I'm just giving my opinion on the matter. If you guys think we will have a better chance just whacking him, by all means, go ahead!

[Robz888]

I'm sticking with Theory, who, according to his own words "reads every post ever made on the forum", but somehow can't find the time to react here or give us some more info.

He's probably too busy writing the "Greatest Moments of Isotropic 2011" post.

[Ozle]

I stil can't see past TINAS, if he is not mafia then I really don't understand this game!

The almost asking for votes, and then offering to vote for himself even.

If he makes it through today then I reckon he'll get killed at nighttime anyway as otherwise he will have an air on invincibility about him for the lynching phases (which may be his plan) Which is nearly enough to make me change my vote, but not quite unless someone else does anything really suspicious

[Thisisnotasmile]

Well I must say that I am (pleasantly) surprised to not be dead yet. Congrats town.

As I have said everything I want to say with regards to my role and defending myself, I won't add anything new here, but I will mention that when I do inevitably die (whether that be today or tonight), I demand that the rest of the town go back and re-read and seriously think about everything that Goober has said. He is a clever guy and has probably already done enough to win MVP for this game.

[theory]

I'm sticking with Theory, who, according to his own words "reads every post ever made on the forum", but somehow can't find the time to react here or give us some more info.
Therefore my vote still stands.

« Reply #228 on: Today at 02:25:35 am »

Plus, if prolonged absences and erratic posting were an indication of Mafia, the DominionStrategy front page would be the Godfather.

[theory]

As I was one of the first to vote against TINAS (and I am not ashamed or scared of announcing it), here's my long-winded explanation:

goober's post nicely lays out my thought process through this lynch.  Specifically:

#106, apparently for his generally shifty behavior and townie rolecalim; I read it as a serious vote

Exactly.

#111, basically saying any mainly random vote is OK at this point, making your vote seem less serious
#135, saying lynching him as a sacrificial lamb to draw out information is a good idea, allowing you to distance yourself from an eventual reveal of TINAS as townie

That's not exactly what I'm driving at.  Certainly we can all agree that by spearheading a campaign against TINAS, we have also gained valuable information about various allegiances and alignments.  Of course, I believe that TINAS is mafia and should be lynched.  But even if we do not lynch him, the fact that we have launched a campaign against him has already brought to light a lot of interesting interactions.  I am still 100% in favor of lynching TINAS, but my parallel goal (to draw out responses from the other players) has already proved fruitful.

#177, which I explained my read of above
Basically it really seems like you are driving this wagon, and are not entirely consistent in your stated motives for doing so.

The more detailed explanation: let's look at how TINAS responds to accusations of mafia.

I don't mind being lynched at this point in the game because then I don't feel like a traitor for then supporting the other team. If I'd actually had a chance at helping my team before I was killed I would feel much worse about doing so.

Despite my not-particularly-caring about death at this stage, I would still prefer to live.

And I am well aware that I COULD be top of a mafia hitlist. But hey, not really my fault that I was forced into giving away so much information. But then again, maybe I'm not a mafia target because maybe the mafia think they can get away with letting me live and convincing you lot to lynch me. Afterall, if I survive day and night, I'm 100% mafia right? So I'm going to be lynched then anyway. So why do mafia need to waste their night kill on me?

Who knows? Maybe they hadn't throught about the situation I just explained, Maybe they were thinking of killing me and now they're going to let me live because I've just helped them to understand that that's a damn good thing to do. Maybe they're not. This is mafia. People don't always do the most obvious thing, because man, that's pretty obvious and gives away information. If you do something different, that people weren't expecting, they'll think about it. And they won't understand it. And they'll be confused and do the wrong thing. Maybe you can even get the other side to help your side by confusing them enough. Maybe not. Who knows. Let's see.

Please go ahead and lynch me. It's cool. It's your own problem though. Afterall, I'll be dead.

To be honest, at this point I've pretty much said everything I have to say and I've definitely said everything I'm WILLING to say. I'm just gonna stay quiet(ish) for a while and let you guys make up your mind. It's all out in the open for you.

As I have said everything I want to say with regards to my role and defending myself, I won't add anything new here

Looking forward to being lynched.

Do you want me to just vote for myself?

I've done it many times, but in this case I won't do it, because it's not the right thing to do. If you want me gone, you'll have to do it yourselves.

TINAS tries really, really hard to seem like he doesn't care about being lynched.  This is an atypical response for a townie about to be lynched.  It's not how I would react, and it's not how any of you others would normally react either.  He has no real interest in accusing anyone and is instead mostly acting shifty. 

Note that if he actually didn't care, he could have voted for himself like he offered to.  Instead, when his bluff was called, he backed down.  This lends credence to the notion that his vote-for-himself ploy was not really out of indifference to death, but rather a desperate move to draw sympathy.

For whatever reason, we've suddenly turned into "TINAS is supremely innocent" without any supporting evidence.  The fact that he didn't fakeclaim or roleclaim (in the middle of the night, British time) before Axxle's (silver) hammer is not conclusive considering how much we have been discussing it.  I suggest that this change of heart is the product of mafia FUD rather than reality.  I remain convinced of his guilt.

[Davio]

TINAS reminds me of Gaius Baltar.
Seemingly clinically depressed and uncaring, but in the end selfpreservation is his highest goal.

His comments in the form of "I don't care if I'm lynched" may be his attempt to convince us NOT to lynch him and as a few have already switched votes multiple times, it seems like it's working.

If we're not lynching him, it will cost us 1, maybe 2 deaths before we get the chance again and is that a price we're willing to pay?

On the other hand: Some of the players are ever so happy to swing both ways like a palm tree in a hurricane. At one point they're blaming TINAS for everything but the rain and at other points they're defending him.

I'm neither convicting nor defending him, but his presence certainly makes things interesting.


Theory on the other hand, dismisses my accusations too lightly in my opinion and just continues his crusade against TINAS. I find this strange. I'm not blaming his absence for my vote, I'm blaming his dodging and misdirection.

[Thisisnotasmile]

I get it. Not really caring about being the first to die when my team is at a 2-7 disadvantage is much more likely than not caring when my team is 7-2 up. That's just silly. Nobody WANTS to be killed, not even me, but I don't mind being killed if it's the best possible outcome for my team. In this community, I'm not prepared to force that disadvantage on my own team, no matter how slight, while there's still a chance of the vote being turned around against the mafia. I've done it before on my old forum many times, but this community is different and I respect that.

As for not pointing the finger at anybody myself, sorry, I've been too busy trying not to get stabbed in the face by everybody else.

I stand by my support of everything Goober has said, and in particular one comment, which I will now repeat just to make sure it is not missed:

Whoever is mafia, both members have already voted for me or else I would already have been hammered.

I know that at this point I could still be mafia in which case that's not true blah blah blah whatever. This is why I want you all to remember this statement for when I am dead, and my innocense is proven.

In light of this fact, and Theory's desperation for me to start pointing the finger myself, I am more than happy to vote: Theory.

Now, I must get back to work. Already late.

[theory]

Whoever is mafia, both members have already voted for me or else I would already have been hammered.

You know, I'm not sure this is the case.  If a townie is quickly lynched early on, then it's pretty clear that the mafia were behind it.  This is an instance where the primary target has not been lynched.

Let's think through it.  Which of these 3 scenarios is most likely?

1. TINAS is mafia and has not been lynched because the mafia has not voted for him
2. TINAS is townie and has not been lynched although the mafia has voted for him
3. TINAS is townie and has not been lynched because the mafia has not voted for him

(Excluding the case that TINAS is mafia and the mafia voted for him, which is obviously out.)

3 is somewhat unlikely.  If TINAS is townie, the mafia almost certainly would just jump on the bandwagon and get this over with.  This is TINAS' point.

2 is much more likely than 3.  But I consider it rare for mafia to spearhead a lynch mob this early in the game.  They tend to prefer to wait around, and cast the final clinching votes against a townie lynch, letting the town do their dirty work.

I think 1 is more likely than either 2 or 3.  In other words, I think it is more likely that TINAS is alive because the mafia have not voted, instead of the mafia having already committed to voting him.

[Thisisnotasmile]

Yes. If you'd have read my post you would have seen that I dismissed the case that I am mafia because this all doesn't matter until I'm dead, and when I'm dead you will all know for certain that I am not mafia. Out of the cases left, by your own admittance, both mafia have already voted for me.

[theory]

But ... you're not dead. 

After you die and reveal, the analysis changes dramatically.  For now, the fact that you are still alive suggests that it is more likely that the mafia have not voted for you than the mafia have voted for you.

If you do get lynched, and you were innocent, then sure, let's look through the voting patterns on the assumption that the mafia voted to lynch you.  But you've not been lynched, and it is important to draw whatever conclusions we can out of your continued existence.

[Thisisnotasmile]

Well you've already drawn your conclusions, and I've drawn mine, clearly from a very different perspective, what with knowing my role and everything. That's cool. I expect to die today. If not today it will be very soon, and I'm simply pointing out, while I have the chance, what the rest of my team should be looking at when that time comes. I mean, it's great that you've used that to point out that everyone else should think that I'm mafia now before I am dead, but that still wasn't the point of my post and probably doesn't change many peoples' opinions since I am already mafia in a lot of peoples' eyes.

Congrats if you turn my point around into something else and actually manage to convince that one extra person that you need to vote for me. However, if and when you do manage that, and my role is revealed, you can expect a quick admin lynching to be on the cards.

Hope you're prepared. I am.

[Robz888]

So.... what's up, friends? There are people whose minds are not made up, I take it?

[popsofctown]

Robz8888 has a Spice Merchant in his kingdom.  Strangely though, he just pays the guy to stop selling spices and chop wood in his backyard.


Vote Count
(4) Thisisnotasmile - theory, Ozle, Robz888, ftl
(2) theory - Davio, Thisisnotasmile
(1) ftl - O

[Axxle]

I have to go to work, but might as well get my vote in so it's obvious where I stand at the moment: Vote: Theory. 

[Thisisnotasmile]

So that leaves Goober to vote for Theory and O to cast the deciding vote?

[theory]

I'm not sure why you assume goober is voting for me.  He is suspicious of me, but he is also suspicious of someone that has now formally voted for me.

[Thisisnotasmile]

At this point, unless something dramatic happens, either you or myself are going to be lynched. Goober is suspicious of you, and apparently not of me. I might not be right, but it looks to me like he'll vote for you.

[ftl]

3. TINAS is townie and has not been lynched because the mafia has not voted for him

3 is also possible, because if the Mafia felt that TINAS would die even without their help, then they wouldn't need to put themselves on the suspicion list by voting for him. Just sayin'.

But, seriously, do people who haven't voted for TINAS have any explanation for what's going on with him?

OK, so one obvious explanation for TINAS's behavior is that he's Mafia, slipped up early, and is trying to do damage control. This is plausible, hence my vote.

What else could possibly be consistent with his behavior? Repeatedly claiming not to care, not even trying to claim anyone else as mafia, in general being deliberately confusing. My only alternate guess is that he's setting up his persona, deliberately acting weird so that in future games, he can do whatever he wants and not be suspicious, if here he turns out to be town after deliberately acting straight-up mafia.

[Axxle]

Currently the strongest feel that I have in the game is this: If Theory is mafia, TINAS is not.  If TINAS is mafia then Theory is not.  I know we'll get information if we lynch one of you.  Although, we might get information if we lynch someone else too, I'm just not seeing anyone suggesting many other people.  Some small hints at me from Goober, some small hints at ftl from O, may have missed others but no one else is taking the initiative and leading the mob to a different potential Goon.  In no circumstance do I want to see a no lynch happen.

PEdit (Preview-edit): I see what FTL is saying now.  TINAS really isn't doing any favors by not telling us his reads.  Can you do this TINAS?  You've made general statements on thinking that mafia is voting for you, but can you talk about specific people?

[ftl]

Heh. Good luck with that.

The reason I switched to asking other people is 'cause TINAS said not muchof use, as far as I can tell. Well, until post #235. Hey, if he'd been talking like that since the start, maybe we wouldn't be suspicious of him! ...but he wasn't, as far as I can tell.  Not sure whether that's an observation in his favor (he's finally acting townie!) or against him (trying different styles until he finally hits on one that seems townie).

(I suppose I do agree with your first-paragraph read, but with a lot less confidence. )

[O]

@Theory: Resigning yourself to being lynched is not equivalent to "trying really hard to appear to not care".
@ Axxle: TINAS has pretty clearly communicated his reads IMO, but some people (Primarily FTL and Theory) have simply relentlessly repeated that TINAS is wishwashy and doesn't care, which Theory uses to claim he's mafia and FTL uses to claim he's bad anyways even if he's townie.

FTL and Theory are my two largest suspects at the moment. I voted for Ftl because the argument that we should lynch players who he personally thinks plays poorly, even if they more likely than others to not be mafia, is terrible. Either he's mafia or he's a terrible Mafia townie (note how I covered my own tracks; I said don't lynch bad players if they have a lower than average chance of being mafia, and I think ftl has a higher than average chance).

I've thought about Axxle; as Mafia, it would be a pretty large leap of faith (pretty risky play) to implicate me as townie if he were indeed mafia. Mafia don't really have that much use in forging allies like that, so Axxle is pretty low on my list on people who could be mafia.


So, in conclusion,

Top two suspects: Theory, Ftl
Somewhat suspicious: Robz888
90+% confidence range of town-status: Axxle, O (Shock), TINAS
Undecided: Goober, Ozle, Davio (All three of you need to speak more!)

I'm keeping my vote for FTL at the moment because I have roughly equal beliefs that Ftl and Theory are mafia, but I'd appreciate Theory more if he was townie than Ftl, whose playstyle just really bugs me if he's town.