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Author Topic: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Game Over!  (Read 211975 times)

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ashersky

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1800 on: April 08, 2020, 09:48:08 pm »

FYI I am a godfather but it's nice to know that didds is town

What's your item?
]

The rose

Also I think that leaves me with vote: e

Do you really think scum e leaves you, me and Didds alive for so long?

Why wouldn't he? I'm not sure I understand the question

Oh because you claimed to him

Wellllll vote: ash

Is the argument that confirming me as town helps us win?  If so, I'll support the lynch.  I just need a better understanding.

At this point, I see more value in keeping me alive.  The remaining scum have too many NK targets to choose from -- Lekkit, me, LL are the best.  If you believe others, Jimmmm and 2.7 are just VTs now.

If 2.7 has more shots, he should just keep shooting during the day.  Like, anyone he wants.  I have to assume that if he's town, his chances of hitting the last scum before giving the win to scum is high.
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1801 on: April 08, 2020, 09:56:28 pm »

FYI I am a godfather but it's nice to know that didds is town

What's your item?
]

The rose

Also I think that leaves me with vote: e

Do you really think scum e leaves you, me and Didds alive for so long?

Why wouldn't he? I'm not sure I understand the question

Oh because you claimed to him

Wellllll vote: ash

Is the argument that confirming me as town helps us win?  If so, I'll support the lynch.  I just need a better understanding.

At this point, I see more value in keeping me alive.  The remaining scum have too many NK targets to choose from -- Lekkit, me, LL are the best.  If you believe others, Jimmmm and 2.7 are just VTs now.

If 2.7 has more shots, he should just keep shooting during the day.  Like, anyone he wants.  I have to assume that if he's town, his chances of hitting the last scum before giving the win to scum is high.

I'm a little drunk and need to reread jim but I can remember at least one game where you faked a result on your partner as a desperate scum gambit
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ashersky

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1802 on: April 08, 2020, 09:59:43 pm »

I'm a little drunk and need to reread jim but I can remember at least one game where you faked a result on your partner as a desperate scum gambit

I'm sure that's possible that I did that in the past, but I've laid out pretty clearly why it would have been a bad idea here.

I'm not immune to attempting bad plans, but generally not that bad.
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1803 on: April 08, 2020, 10:09:41 pm »

I mean that literally just leaves jim and maybe lalight? But again I would have to reread
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1804 on: April 08, 2020, 10:30:51 pm »

ash hammered MiX (purple)

Don't you auto-hammer?
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1805 on: April 08, 2020, 10:32:45 pm »

ash hammered MiX (purple)

Don't you auto-hammer?

Good point.  I feel like I was pushing for him though.
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1806 on: April 08, 2020, 10:35:24 pm »

ash hammered MiX (purple)

Don't you auto-hammer?

Good point.  I feel like I was pushing for him though.

I'm looking for your interactions with him. MiX was caught and would have been lynched anyway. You may get points for other interactions, but not for the hammer.
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1807 on: April 08, 2020, 10:53:38 pm »

I skimmed through your posts for about the second half of the game. Let me know if you think there's something important to not from the first half.

The only notable posts on MiX I found:

...
MiX is there because MiX.
...
So faust >>>>> Jimmmmm > MiX > scola >> Lekkit > Glooble

Note that (from my perspective) this list now reads Town >>>>> Town > scum > Town >> Town > Town


faust is not town-aligned.
Top suspects after that are EFHW, Jimmmm, and MiX.
Top town reads at LL, ADK, 2.7.

And that's it. I don't think mentioning him in a couple of reads lists is pushing, and it would hardly qualify as bussing if you are partners with him.


Also, do you have any hindsight thoughts on this?

I'm in a tough spot, right?  I know faust is scum, but no one will trust me enough to follow through.  I can expend lots of energy trying to convince people, but it doesn't seem to have an effect.

"I know faust is scum" seems almost mod-confirmed level confidence. How sure were you really? Did it occur to you that you might be wrong and you really should have looked elsewhere?
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1808 on: April 08, 2020, 11:00:54 pm »

I normally think "Oh no! I was wrong" etc posts are scummy, but after being so sure that faust was scum that you couldn't otherwise participate in the game, failing to acknowledge it at all after his flip seems odd.
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1809 on: April 08, 2020, 11:06:14 pm »

I normally think "Oh no! I was wrong" etc posts are scummy, but after being so sure that faust was scum that you couldn't otherwise participate in the game, failing to acknowledge it at all after his flip seems odd.

"I normally think X is scummy."
"I think it is odd you didn't do X."

That's how that reads to me.  Like you want to find me scummy regardless of what you normally believe.
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1810 on: April 08, 2020, 11:11:45 pm »

Also, do you have any hindsight thoughts on this?

I'm in a tough spot, right?  I know faust is scum, but no one will trust me enough to follow through.  I can expend lots of energy trying to convince people, but it doesn't seem to have an effect.

"I know faust is scum" seems almost mod-confirmed level confidence. How sure were you really? Did it occur to you that you might be wrong and you really should have looked elsewhere?

I was 100% convinced that I was correct.  I am so convinced that I am not yet certain that the mods aren't trolling us with his green flip.

Okay, that's an exaggeration.  Until I saw that he was a Hider, I was 100% convinced based on my read + my result, which to me -- from my perspective -- was extremely damning.  It was so damning that I was considering lying about my role/result to incriminate him, because to me it was worth it to get a scum lynch.

So no, it never once occurred to me that I could have been wrong because my interpretation of my result supported my read.  Once he flipped Green Hider, I was able to go back and understand my results.  The fact that it doesn't appear that faust breadcrumbed anything (at least, I couldn't find anything when I did a quick ISO -- they could be there and I just missed them) doesn't help.  I had no inkling that he could have been a hider.

As far as I'm concerned, while I was incorrect, I was not wrong.  The only way I would have backed off my read was if he was IC'ed a la Lekkit.

Am I glad it worked out a different way?  Of course.  We're closer to winning than had I gotten him mislynched, followed by my mislynch.  But I am wistful that I didn't get to try out town lying -- which I got permission to do from faust in thread! (On purpose.)
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1811 on: April 08, 2020, 11:13:19 pm »

Also, for info, WCD is L-3 and I am at L-2.
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1812 on: April 08, 2020, 11:13:48 pm »

Also, for info, WCD is L-3 and I am at L-2.

(My auto-hammer has been turned off for non-ash players.)
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1813 on: April 08, 2020, 11:15:35 pm »

Also, for info, WCD is L-3 and I am at L-2.

(My auto-hammer has been turned off for non-ash players.)

Are you saying that if I vote for you you'll hammer?
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1814 on: April 08, 2020, 11:26:55 pm »

unvote, i am going to sleep now, I'll figure it out in the morning
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1815 on: April 08, 2020, 11:27:20 pm »

I normally think "Oh no! I was wrong" etc posts are scummy, but after being so sure that faust was scum that you couldn't otherwise participate in the game, failing to acknowledge it at all after his flip seems odd.

"I normally think X is scummy."
"I think it is odd you didn't do X."

That's how that reads to me.  Like you want to find me scummy regardless of what you normally believe.

Normally people don't tunnel as much or claim the level of certainty that you did. When you're scum and have committed to a strong read that you know is wrong, you need to be prepared to defend yourself when you're revealed to be wrong. I think often people feel like they need to act more shocked than they otherwise would (I don't think people are generally shocked to be wrong because they're never all that certain about their reads); I'm saying in this situation I think you went too far in the other direction: if you were truly close to 100% sure, you would have been totally shocked. But you thought acting shocked would come across as scummy, so you didn't.
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1816 on: April 09, 2020, 12:31:20 am »

Also, for info, WCD is L-3 and I am at L-2.

(My auto-hammer has been turned off for non-ash players.)

Are you saying that if I vote for you you'll hammer?

Yes.  You (and anyone else not voting) hold the power.  You decide how to wield it (pro- or anti-town manner).
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1817 on: April 09, 2020, 12:34:25 am »

I want to point out just how pro-scum it is to lynch me.

1. Remove an investigation from the night.
2. Remove QT confirmation for another.
3. Remove WIFOM choices for scum's NK (between Lekkit and LL, you just shoot LL and don't worry about results anymore because I'm not in the game).

Basically, only scum would put me to L-1.
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1818 on: April 09, 2020, 01:08:37 am »

2. Remove QT confirmation for another.

What do you mean by this?

3. Remove WIFOM choices for scum's NK (between Lekkit and LL, you just shoot LL and don't worry about results anymore because I'm not in the game).

So I'm clear on what you're saying; Are you saying that, assuming you and LL are both Town, scum will want to shoot LL but if you're around they might shoot Lekkit instead to avoid being tracked? Are you saying that LL is scum's highest priority because of his Motion Detector role?
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1819 on: April 09, 2020, 01:33:00 am »

2. Remove QT confirmation for another.

What do you mean by this?

3. Remove WIFOM choices for scum's NK (between Lekkit and LL, you just shoot LL and don't worry about results anymore because I'm not in the game).

So I'm clear on what you're saying; Are you saying that, assuming you and LL are both Town, scum will want to shoot LL but if you're around they might shoot Lekkit instead to avoid being tracked? Are you saying that LL is scum's highest priority because of his Motion Detector role?

#2 refers to LL and I being able to confirm each other's actions by communicating during the day ahead of time.  If we are both alive, we can confirm each other's stories.

The second portion -- assuming we are both town -- scum will need to make a decision on whom to remove.  Ignoring possible blocking/doctoring, they have to worry about being tracked or being seen targeting.  I believe LL is the higher priority removal because I need to target the shooter, whereas LL needs to target the right target OR shooter.  He has two (three if he can self-target) good targets in the IC and the tracker.  That almost forces them to go for LL.

The fact that they didn't before now is slightly worrisome, but no more than Jimmmmm or 2.7 being left alive.
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1820 on: April 09, 2020, 01:52:55 am »

So if I'm understand correctly, you're arguing that if you're Town then you're more useful to keep around than other Town players, and you're making the same argument for keeping LL around.

On Day 1 or 2 I could totally get behind leaving claimed investigative PRs alive for another Day or 2 to let them get some results. But I think it's too late for that. The question isn't who is helpful if Town, it's who is Town.

Who are you proposing we lynch instead? I think we can agree that the lynch pool is:

LaLight
Jimmmmm
ADK
e
ash

(If you think WCD is scum then you should lynch me.)
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1821 on: April 09, 2020, 01:53:45 am »

The fact that they didn't before now is slightly worrisome, but no more than Jimmmmm or 2.7 being left alive.

Why is that worrisome? Do you think e and I are generally considered Towny and unlikely to be lynched?
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1822 on: April 09, 2020, 01:59:08 am »

The fact that they didn't before now is slightly worrisome, but no more than Jimmmmm or 2.7 being left alive.

Why is that worrisome? Do you think e and I are generally considered Towny and unlikely to be lynched?

Because LL claimed his role at least to some extent in multiple ways, including in the game thread.
You claimed in your QT about your power.
2.7 claimed very early that he was a vig.

All three are still alive, even after all that information was known to many others.  None of it tells me who is town, honestly, but others seem to put weight on things like that.
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1823 on: April 09, 2020, 02:02:52 am »

Who are you proposing we lynch instead? I think we can agree that the lynch pool is:

LaLight
Jimmmmm
ADK
e
ash

(If you think WCD is scum then you should lynch me.)

I think Jimmmm and ADK are the best lynch options today.

--2.7 confirmed his claimed and may be a VT at this point
--LL is an investigative role
--ash is an investigative role

Jimmmm was an investigative role, and he's given us an innocent result on WCD.  Technically his claim is not confirmed.  I agree that town or scum, that can't really be a lie.  Only if both of you are scum does this come into play, and that's tough.  So Jimmmm is town with a town result or scum with a town result.

ADK is...what?  Has ADK claimed? 

So ADK > Jimmmmm > 2.7 > ash > LL is the order for me for those five.
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #1824 on: April 09, 2020, 02:04:32 am »

ADK claimed Godfather.
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