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[Glooble]

I think faust's post wasn't worded very well. In our QT, after the item list was posted, he guessed at 13 out of the 20. Then, when we both got our items, two of his guesses were proven more or less right.

I can see the case for this being a scumslip, but I don't think faust makes that scumslip. I think this is a case of unfortunate wording.

[scolapasta]

Vote: Ashersky

I'm not taking Shraeye completely off the hook, but my main suspicion of them is trying to not understanding why they would accuse me and seemingly misrepresent our QT conversations.

But I don't buy Ashersky's conflict with faust - the argument that from the name of an item you can make an educated guess on what it does is reasonable. Having just one item confirmed is solid evidence for that argument. Besides, no one seemed to have any issue with people suggesting that Bow and Arrow was likely vig.

[Jimmmmm]

This game feels like such a mess to me. The problem with Day 1 claiming is that inevitably not everyone trusts or believes those that say "Let's massclaim", and we get pages and pages of non-alignment-indicative discussions on plans and subplans and setup speculation. If everyone agreed and we just got whatever done then that would be one thing, but that just doesn't happen.

I am inclined to trust e. I think it's pretty likely that items which give roles such as Vig and Doctor would give something else if picked up by scum. So while it's possible that e is scum and will try to use his Vig claim to cover a scum kill, such a move will definitely draw suspicion and it's highly possible that his role will be semi-confirmed.

[MiX]

This game feels like such a mess to me. The problem with Day 1 claiming is that inevitably not everyone trusts or believes those that say "Let's massclaim", and we get pages and pages of non-alignment-indicative discussions on plans and subplans and setup speculation. If everyone agreed and we just got whatever done then that would be one thing, but that just doesn't happen.

I am inclined to trust e. I think it's pretty likely that items which give roles such as Vig and Doctor would give something else if picked up by scum. So while it's possible that e is scum and will try to use his Vig claim to cover a scum kill, such a move will definitely draw suspicion and it's highly possible that his role will be semi-confirmed.

Hmm what? 1-shot Vig isn't too good for scum to have, it's their just reward for being high on the draft order.

[Jimmmmm]

1-shot Vig isn't too good for scum to have

I'm not sure that I agree with that and I think it's very likely that at least some items have different effects for Town and scum.

[MiX]

1-shot Vig isn't too good for scum to have

I'm not sure that I agree with that and I think it's very likely that at least some items have different effects for Town and scum.

Yes, but I don't think vig is one of them.

[ashersky]

But I don't buy Ashersky's conflict with faust - the argument that from the name of an item you can make an educated guess on what it does is reasonable. Having just one item confirmed is solid evidence for that argument. Besides, no one seemed to have any issue with people suggesting that Bow and Arrow was likely vig.

What do you mean by not "buying" my conflict?  Do you mean that I am faking the fight with faust (which would make us partners)?  Are you saying you don't agree with my side of the argument?  Please clarify.

You say "having just one item confirmed is solid evidence for that argument."  Is that your honest belief in how the world work?  Here:

"Slamming my head on a keyboard is an efficient way to write out genetic code."

cfklxzklcx.cx,/l;ssdl;kkl;dlskr;eior5opK4['wrIOWEF'a;u/kls;aior'q'.lcx,cxkdxlop.vg;lp.cjmjxkkdkslo;.pxl;.jkchjcxvhjkvjucfjsdlo.zsl.djumdweidiofp/womjm fiuexol.;wik,dkuedxku,edxlfcku,ifggciufxudki,fcj,fcxhmdzjmufxku,fckfdxjdxzj,dxkifxck,udryehdxzk,fclifc,kfdxdj

Hey look, there's at least one instance of consecutive letters that correspond to the way we write out genetic code in there.  Looks like we have "one item confirmed" that "is solid evidence for that argument."

[cayvie]

This game feels like such a mess to me. The problem with Day 1 claiming is that inevitably not everyone trusts or believes those that say "Let's massclaim", and we get pages and pages of non-alignment-indicative discussions on plans and subplans and setup speculation. If everyone agreed and we just got whatever done then that would be one thing, but that just doesn't happen.

I am inclined to trust e. I think it's pretty likely that items which give roles such as Vig and Doctor would give something else if picked up by scum. So while it's possible that e is scum and will try to use his Vig claim to cover a scum kill, such a move will definitely draw suspicion and it's highly possible that his role will be semi-confirmed.

Do you buy ADK's claim of being town and getting a role that's only useful for scum?

[ashersky]

1-shot Vig isn't too good for scum to have

I'm not sure that I agree with that and I think it's very likely that at least some items have different effects for Town and scum.

1-Shot Vig is awesome for scum to have.  Any extra kills are awesome for a faction that literally wants to kill.  They can't accidentally kill their own faction, either.  Jimmmmm is correct here, MiX is incorrect, on that point.

I disagree that items change depending on the alignment of the player who gets it.  That just seems to go against the whole idea of a draft, doesn't it?  In other drafting setups, isn't the whole thing centered around providing powers based on the draft?  If they are tailored to alignment, that removes the point of a draft.

I think instead, the powers are weakened overall to ensure that as little imbalance as possible based on powers drafted.  One way they did that was by using flavor items instead of the powers themselves.  Other ways include weak versions (1-shot vs full, psychologist vs. cop, etc.).  Obviously we can't know what they did, but that's my guess on how to try to balance the draft system.

[ashersky]

This game feels like such a mess to me. The problem with Day 1 claiming is that inevitably not everyone trusts or believes those that say "Let's massclaim", and we get pages and pages of non-alignment-indicative discussions on plans and subplans and setup speculation. If everyone agreed and we just got whatever done then that would be one thing, but that just doesn't happen.

I am inclined to trust e. I think it's pretty likely that items which give roles such as Vig and Doctor would give something else if picked up by scum. So while it's possible that e is scum and will try to use his Vig claim to cover a scum kill, such a move will definitely draw suspicion and it's highly possible that his role will be semi-confirmed.

Do you buy ADK's claim of being town and getting a role that's only useful for scum?

You aren't asking me, but I have an opinion.

I do buy it -- it doesn't serve much purpose except to help town, right?  Scum doesn't like to make that claim as it 1) draws attention to themselves and 2) gives town info they might not have had.

Yes, the flipside is trying to cover for a scummy action -- but it seems early to try to cover for a scummy action that he hasn't taken yet and would still need to be caught taking, which would necessitate a power that could catch him and target him.  So overall, it seems it being an honest claim is the most likely situation.

Plus I usually just trust ADK for meta-reasons.

[cayvie]

But I don't buy Ashersky's conflict with faust - the argument that from the name of an item you can make an educated guess on what it does is reasonable. Having just one item confirmed is solid evidence for that argument. Besides, no one seemed to have any issue with people suggesting that Bow and Arrow was likely vig.

What do you mean by not "buying" my conflict?  Do you mean that I am faking the fight with faust (which would make us partners)?  Are you saying you don't agree with my side of the argument?  Please clarify.

You say "having just one item confirmed is solid evidence for that argument."  Is that your honest belief in how the world work?  Here:

"Slamming my head on a keyboard is an efficient way to write out genetic code."

cfklxzklcx.cx,/l;ssdl;kkl;dlskr;eior5opK4['wrIOWEF'a;u/kls;aior'q'.lcx,cxkdxlop.vg;lp.cjmjxkkdkslo;.pxl;.jkchjcxvhjkvjucfjsdlo.zsl.djumdweidiofp/womjm fiuexol.;wik,dkuedxku,edxlfcku,ifggciufxudki,fcj,fcxhmdzjmufxku,fckfdxjdxzj,dxkifxck,udryehdxzk,fclifc,kfdxdj

Hey look, there's at least one instance of consecutive letters that correspond to the way we write out genetic code in there.  Looks like we have "one item confirmed" that "is solid evidence for that argument."

It's a lot closer to shraeye saying "this deck of cards isn't marked"

And then Faust making predictions as to what 13 of the cards are, face down

Then flipping two over and being right on both of them

[ashersky]

It's a lot closer to shraeye saying "this deck of cards isn't marked"

And then Faust making predictions as to what 13 of the cards are, face down

Then flipping two over and being right on both of them

Flipping two correct is proof that faust knows the other 11?  Or that the deck is marked?  Or could faust have just been lucky?  I am continually waiting for some explanation or proof how faust knows his 13 guesses are all very nearly perfect.

I mean, as he refuses to confirm his clairvoyance in thread, I hope there's a time-stamped QT post we can check after the game to see.  I wonder if bow/arrow was on his guess list and he said "1-Shot Vigilante" in it.  I wonder if he guessed my item, and how in the world he could have gotten it right given what I know about it.

Does he also know the character that go with each one?  What you had for breakfast today?  Whether Disney will make Frozen 3?

[Jimmmmm]

This game feels like such a mess to me. The problem with Day 1 claiming is that inevitably not everyone trusts or believes those that say "Let's massclaim", and we get pages and pages of non-alignment-indicative discussions on plans and subplans and setup speculation. If everyone agreed and we just got whatever done then that would be one thing, but that just doesn't happen.

I am inclined to trust e. I think it's pretty likely that items which give roles such as Vig and Doctor would give something else if picked up by scum. So while it's possible that e is scum and will try to use his Vig claim to cover a scum kill, such a move will definitely draw suspicion and it's highly possible that his role will be semi-confirmed.

Do you buy ADK's claim of being town and getting a role that's only useful for scum?

Hmm, I missed that. Maybe they are alignment-independent (if ADK is Town).

I will make the point that if I was #1 I would not have taken the Bow and Arrow because it wouldn't've occurred to me that it could give scum an extra kill.

[ashersky]

Magicians know what card an audience member picked all the time.  That's not magic, that's a trick.  Some might call it cheating.

faust is claiming to know the unknowable, but refuses to share his trick.  Do we accept he's the only real magician in the world, or decide that he's cheating somehow, or perhaps he's just lying?

[ashersky]

I will make the point that if I was #1 I would not have taken the Bow and Arrow because it wouldn't've occurred to me that it could give scum an extra kill.

Regardless of your draft position, did you know that the bow and arrow was a 1-Shot Vigilante?

[cayvie]

Magicians know what card an audience member picked all the time.  That's not magic, that's a trick.  Some might call it cheating.

faust is claiming to know the unknowable, but refuses to share his trick.  Do we accept he's the only real magician in the world, or decide that he's cheating somehow, or perhaps he's just lying?

I feel like this is some personal thing between you and Faust at this point tbh, and I'm gonna step back

[ashersky]

Magicians know what card an audience member picked all the time.  That's not magic, that's a trick.  Some might call it cheating.

faust is claiming to know the unknowable, but refuses to share his trick.  Do we accept he's the only real magician in the world, or decide that he's cheating somehow, or perhaps he's just lying?

I feel like this is some personal thing between you and Faust at this point tbh, and I'm gonna step back

It's not.  It's mafia.

If I say I wrote down guesses for every player's alignment, and on D2, we have two flips and they match what I wrote down.  Can I then claim to be the authority on all player alignments?

That's another analogy to faust's unknowable knowledge of all-knowing power.  Here's the formula: take any set of unknown data, write down guesses for most or all of said data, reveal only TWO of the original data set that matches any two of the guesses, gain Thanos-level power over the universe.

I'm just calling it out, even if it is seems like I a futile effort.

[Jimmmmm]

Flipping two correct is proof that faust knows the other 11?  Or that the deck is marked?  Or could faust have just been lucky?  I am continually waiting for some explanation or proof how faust knows his 13 guesses are all very nearly perfect.

I don't think anyone's suggesting that "Flipping two correct is proof that faust knows the other 11".
Hypothesis: The mods generally tried to align the flavour and mechanics of the items.
Result: 2 items have mechanics in line with their flavour.
Conclusion: The hypothesis is very likely correct.

Obviously any two people could have different ideas how of what an item should do, but given that 2/2 items match, it's very likely that the mods in fact did try to do this.

[ashersky]

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

For the apologists who claim I'm just misunderstanding his wording...the statement in full, explained with color-coding:

"I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now."

In all cases, the "I" in that sentence refers to faust.
Per the statement:
--faust made 13 guesses
--faust made those guesses prior to drafting
--his qualitative statement regarding those guesses is based off of the cumulative knowledge he has gain up to the point of posting that statement
--his guesses were not very far off, where I posit "very far off" would mean "very inaccurate"

If faust wants to retcon an "ash just can't understand" explanation into this, his only real leg to stand on is to argue that "not very far off" meant "not very inaccurate" which can technically be taken to mean just "inaccurate" as oppose to "very inaccurate."  However, given he was using this statement to counter the argument that the items cannot be known in advance, that would seem disingenuous to me.

[ashersky]

Flipping two correct is proof that faust knows the other 11?  Or that the deck is marked?  Or could faust have just been lucky?  I am continually waiting for some explanation or proof how faust knows his 13 guesses are all very nearly perfect.

I don't think anyone's suggesting that "Flipping two correct is proof that faust knows the other 11".
Hypothesis: The mods generally tried to align the flavour and mechanics of the items.
Result: 2 items have mechanics in line with their flavour.
Conclusion: The hypothesis is very likely correct.

Obviously any two people could have different ideas how of what an item should do, but given that 2/2 items match, it's very likely that the mods in fact did try to do this.

Is 2 out of 13 of a set of 20 a generally accepted scientific standard to prove a hypothesis?  Like, "hey, this medicine worked on 2 out of 13 people, must work for all!"?

I really don't know, as I'm no scientist.  But seems suspect.

Also, as I have said multiple times, my item directly contradicts faust's hypothesis.

[Jimmmmm]

Regardless of your draft position, did you know that the bow and arrow was a 1-Shot Vigilante?

Of course not, but it seemed very likely to be a Vig of some sort, and what do you know it is (subject to trusting e's claim of course).

[EFHW]

The faust issue is much ado about nothing, I think. Tomorrow I'm going to look for some new angles.

[Jimmmmm]

Is 2 out of 13 of a set of 20 a generally accepted scientific standard to prove a hypothesis?  Like, "hey, this medicine worked on 2 out of 13 people, must work for all!"?

I really don't know, as I'm no scientist.  But seems suspect.

Also, as I have said multiple times, my item directly contradicts faust's hypothesis.

This isn't science. This is game. Designed by a person/people who have somewhat similar experiences with Mafia to the people playing. The items were very likely created with ideas of how they would be interpreted in mind (because you should keep these things in mind when designing a game). Maybe they deliberately made some items with unexpected effects. Maybe some items have unexpected effects because they couldn't think of what else to use or because people have different expectations. But the fact remains that we seem to have evidence to suggest that the mods generally tried to create items whose effects match their flavour.

[ashersky]

Flavor:
1. Flavor will be based on the Hunger Games series. It spans over all three of the books.
2. The game has been set up to openly remove flavor as a factor in game solving, decisions, etc. Though, if you know the story, you'll get some kicks out of the flavor

Per the mods themselves, flavor cannot be used in game solving and is not a factor in decisions.  We made a decision when we chose items, therefore the flavor could not have been a factor.  And now we are trying to solve the game in part by using the flavor of items, which again, is not important.

I would think that means that either faust is lying or the mods lied.

(In actually, I don't think that's particularly required to be true.  The mods did not lie, but I believe as a mod it is impossible to design a game around a flavor without that flavor impacting the game itself.  I assume our mods really like the flavor, so of course the set-up, the items, etc. will be infused with the flavor.  Consciously or unconsciously, the mods did allow flavor to impact game decisions and possible solving.  That is not a fault or a complaint, just my opinion.  It just makes for difficult reconciliations.

Mockingjay was something that was in the item list.  That means something specific to people who know the flavor, but not to others.  If whatever the Mockingjay thing is relates in anyway to flavor, the people choosing with knowledge were advantaged over those who didn't.

And faust's claim that he was able to figure out the items is just confirmation of that.)

Hey mods -- I'm really sorry, but it appears I hit the modify button instead of the quote button on Post #2.  I hope you have it saved somewhere?  Or someone happens to have that page open somewhere?  I don't know if it is reversible.

[ashersky]

Just to make it stand out -- I accidentally modified the second post of the game (the one with rules in it) by clicking the wrong option on the post when I went to quote it.

Do you have those rules saved somewhere?  I hope you do, and you can just re-copy over my mistake.

Sincerest apologies.