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Author Topic: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Game Over!  (Read 211962 times)

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ashersky

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #475 on: March 20, 2020, 12:35:51 am »

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

vote: faust

The only reason you should know more than one item’s meaning is your scum partners telling you what they got.

Again, this seems like the biggest deal and no one is focused on it.

faust guessed 13/20 items.  He now knows he wasn't very far off on those.  How can that be? 

1) he somehow got mod information (hacking, etc.) -- seems unlikely
2) he got a role power that let him do multiple item+role cop actions on N1/D1 -- seems unbalanced
3) his scum partners (and district partner?) told him what their items are, providing him with up to 5 data points -- checks out

vote: faust
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #476 on: March 20, 2020, 12:36:57 am »

Also, for what is supposedly supposed to be a busy game with everyone quarantined, etc., no one is posting.
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cayvie

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #477 on: March 20, 2020, 12:38:55 am »

yeah you know what?

vote: Ashersky

the bandages were available in round 2. i think he's searching for the doctor.

Let me explain the multitude of ways that doesn't work.

So, first let's make an assumption and see how it sorts out.  "ashersky made an appeal to get players to claim their round in an effort to find who has the bandages, because ashersky believes the bandages are a doctor."

The assumptions within the assumption:
1) ash believes bandages = doctor
2) scum!ash cares about the doctor
3) scum!ash thinks knowing the rounds of players tells him the doctor

Based on my item, I think #1 is rubbish.  But hey, not everyone does, as I'm sure some players might have made such a connection.  And some items may make more thematic sense than mine, but who knows.  Scum cares about investigative roles much more than protective roles, so #2 is weak.  But both of these are subjective opinions anyway.  Let's look at #3.

In an effort to help cayvie's argument, let's create the most perfect scum scenario for this.  I went r2.  Let's say there are 4 scum and we all went r2.

There were 10 items available in round 2.  For this bandage fishing to be a thing, all four of us scum got something else.
We started with 20 items, so there should be 10 first rounders (this was what my actual plan was trying to confirm).  That leaves 6 2rs.  If 4 scum were in those six, I want to know the other two.  At that point, I have a 50/50 chance at the player who MIGHT have taken bandages.

Is that your basic argument for my rolefishing?  If you reduce the number of scum partners I have in r2 with me, that only decreases my odds.

But we can add my draft place into the mix -- so if I tried to choose bandages (from last place) but didn't get them, that at least confirms they were taken.  So now scum!ash knows bandages are in the game, doesn't know what they are, and wants to find out who has them by narrowing the pool of possible players through a round claim.

Is that about right?

Man, that seems like a ton of work/risk for a small reward, where in the best case scenario I have a 50/50 chance of knowing who has the bandages (where if there are four scum AND I put bandages in my draft list).

Yeah, that seems worth it.

Well frankly I'm just relieved that I've successfully communicated my suspicions and reasons to someone else. Because, yeah, that was my argument.
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cayvie

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #478 on: March 20, 2020, 12:40:17 am »

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

vote: faust

The only reason you should know more than one item’s meaning is your scum partners telling you what they got.

Again, this seems like the biggest deal and no one is focused on it.

faust guessed 13/20 items.  He now knows he wasn't very far off on those.  How can that be? 

1) he somehow got mod information (hacking, etc.) -- seems unlikely
2) he got a role power that let him do multiple item+role cop actions on N1/D1 -- seems unbalanced
3) his scum partners (and district partner?) told him what their items are, providing him with up to 5 data points -- checks out

vote: faust

Faust clarified. He says he knows two items/roles, implying to me at least that he and his district mate have claimed to each other.
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18:28 MEASURE YOUR LIFE IN LOVE: you shouldve done the decent thing and resign rather than go on being that lucky all the time

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ashersky

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #479 on: March 20, 2020, 12:48:40 am »

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

vote: faust

The only reason you should know more than one item’s meaning is your scum partners telling you what they got.

Again, this seems like the biggest deal and no one is focused on it.

faust guessed 13/20 items.  He now knows he wasn't very far off on those.  How can that be? 

1) he somehow got mod information (hacking, etc.) -- seems unlikely
2) he got a role power that let him do multiple item+role cop actions on N1/D1 -- seems unbalanced
3) his scum partners (and district partner?) told him what their items are, providing him with up to 5 data points -- checks out

vote: faust

Faust clarified. He says he knows two items/roles, implying to me at least that he and his district mate have claimed to each other.

Seems suspect, though, doesn't it?  District partner could confirm, I guess.  District partner could be a scum partner, too.
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #480 on: March 20, 2020, 12:48:57 am »

yeah you know what?

vote: Ashersky

the bandages were available in round 2. i think he's searching for the doctor.

Let me explain the multitude of ways that doesn't work.

So, first let's make an assumption and see how it sorts out.  "ashersky made an appeal to get players to claim their round in an effort to find who has the bandages, because ashersky believes the bandages are a doctor."

The assumptions within the assumption:
1) ash believes bandages = doctor
2) scum!ash cares about the doctor
3) scum!ash thinks knowing the rounds of players tells him the doctor

Based on my item, I think #1 is rubbish.  But hey, not everyone does, as I'm sure some players might have made such a connection.  And some items may make more thematic sense than mine, but who knows.  Scum cares about investigative roles much more than protective roles, so #2 is weak.  But both of these are subjective opinions anyway.  Let's look at #3.

In an effort to help cayvie's argument, let's create the most perfect scum scenario for this.  I went r2.  Let's say there are 4 scum and we all went r2.

There were 10 items available in round 2.  For this bandage fishing to be a thing, all four of us scum got something else.
We started with 20 items, so there should be 10 first rounders (this was what my actual plan was trying to confirm).  That leaves 6 2rs.  If 4 scum were in those six, I want to know the other two.  At that point, I have a 50/50 chance at the player who MIGHT have taken bandages.

Is that your basic argument for my rolefishing?  If you reduce the number of scum partners I have in r2 with me, that only decreases my odds.

But we can add my draft place into the mix -- so if I tried to choose bandages (from last place) but didn't get them, that at least confirms they were taken.  So now scum!ash knows bandages are in the game, doesn't know what they are, and wants to find out who has them by narrowing the pool of possible players through a round claim.

Is that about right?

Man, that seems like a ton of work/risk for a small reward, where in the best case scenario I have a 50/50 chance of knowing who has the bandages (where if there are four scum AND I put bandages in my draft list).

Yeah, that seems worth it.

Well frankly I'm just relieved that I've successfully communicated my suspicions and reasons to someone else. Because, yeah, that was my argument.

Do you feel it was, or still is, a good argument?
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Galzria

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #481 on: March 20, 2020, 01:13:04 am »


Please refer to Phase 1: Point 2, and Phase 2: Point 2 of the setup posts.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Sign Ups Open!
« Reply #482 on: March 20, 2020, 01:22:26 am »

Phase 1 - Ranking Phase
2. Role Information - At this point, all players will ONLY KNOW THEIR ALIGNMENT. They will not have any information what-so-ever outside of which Faction to which they belong.

Phase 2 - Drafting Phase
2. All District Threads will re-open, along with any other threads that may exist in the game that were not previously open during the Ranking Phase.

For reference.

So yes, scum did get to talk during N0.

I figured out my own confusion -- I scanned my district QT multiple times and saw that my QT only locked once during N0, then unlocked when the game started.  That seemed really odd to me, and is why I figured scum HAD to have a shared QT from the beginning, since there was no time after QT lock.

Upon a fourth scan, I found that there was a second QT lock/unlock, but the mods didn't bold the orders, so I didn't seem them on scan.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #483 on: March 20, 2020, 01:24:35 am »

Not only did they get to talk, they got to fully scheme with draft order set.  And they were able to do it knowing the rules of drafting, from what I can tell from date stamps.

On March 13, at 10:54 p.m., the mods added the drafting rules to this game thread.  After that time, QTs were unlocked.  So scum knew the game and were able to strategize for it.
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11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #484 on: March 20, 2020, 01:29:30 am »

Vote Count 1.3:


Ashersky (3): Cayvie, EFHW, Glooble
faust (2): Ashersky, Mail-Mi
Scolapasta (2): faust, Shraeye
LaLight (2): E!, WCD
EFHW (2): ADK, MiX
Shraeye (2): Scolapasta, RaptorSlayer
RaptorSlayer (1): LaLight
Mail-Mi (1): Jimmm


Not Voting (1):  Lekkit,



Deadline is 9:15pm Forum Time on March 24th.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 01:31:17 am by DatSwan »
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #485 on: March 20, 2020, 01:53:22 am »

Ashersky is getting some predictable votes because of his play style, but it is all just a big ashersky-tell, not a scum-tell.
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cayvie

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #486 on: March 20, 2020, 01:53:55 am »

Do you feel it was, or still is, a good argument?

I don't think it's laughably bad.

I think you're overstating the risk that such a move would pose to yourself. I mean everyone expects Ashersky to have a plan, right? That's still a thing?
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cayvie

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #487 on: March 20, 2020, 02:00:06 am »

Do you feel it was, or still is, a good argument?

I don't think it's laughably bad.

I think you're overstating the risk that such a move would pose to yourself. I mean everyone expects Ashersky to have a plan, right? That's still a thing?

and i certainly think it's a better argument than the idea that scum!faust forgot that townies wouldn't know a bunch of roles and decided to post about it.
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18:28 MEASURE YOUR LIFE IN LOVE: you shouldve done the decent thing and resign rather than go on being that lucky all the time

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #488 on: March 20, 2020, 02:06:19 am »

Do you feel it was, or still is, a good argument?

I don't think it's laughably bad.

I think you're overstating the risk that such a move would pose to yourself. I mean everyone expects Ashersky to have a plan, right? That's still a thing?

It is a meme more than a thing
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #489 on: March 20, 2020, 02:17:09 am »

I feel like we, as town, get overprotective of our PRs.

We must keep the doctor a secret, or school will kill then.
We must keep the cop a secret, or they will be killed
Etc.

But there is really no need to. The cop and the doc are both targeting blindly (based on their reads, yes). Their only utility is if they get lucky.

If the cop and the doc and the tracker, etc are all revealed, now scum have to make choices. Is the doc the role we kill first? What about if we get tracked? What about a cop?

Those are questions scum have to answer. And we as town are faced with the same questions. Our watcher needs to decide if they want to watch the doctor or the cop. Our cop has to decide what PR they want to validate as town (given the current setup).

These questions, and more importantly their answers, will lead us to catching scum

We should full claim. D1

I got draft choice 2

I took the bow and arrow. I am a vigilante

I am katniss everdeen, and I volunteer as tribute
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #490 on: March 20, 2020, 02:19:24 am »

ok then

vote: LaLight
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18:28 MEASURE YOUR LIFE IN LOVE: you shouldve done the decent thing and resign rather than go on being that lucky all the time

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #491 on: March 20, 2020, 02:25:29 am »

ok then

vote: LaLight

to explain: the reason i unvoted lalight earlier was because i thought he was softclaiming katniss, who i assumed would be some badass town PR
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18:28 MEASURE YOUR LIFE IN LOVE: you shouldve done the decent thing and resign rather than go on being that lucky all the time

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #492 on: March 20, 2020, 02:29:58 am »

*1-shot vigilante, that is
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #493 on: March 20, 2020, 02:38:37 am »

i mean, i'm not claiming.

i was having fun back at this site, but if fullclaim d1s is how games on this forum go, this'll likely be my last one.
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18:28 MEASURE YOUR LIFE IN LOVE: you shouldve done the decent thing and resign rather than go on being that lucky all the time

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #494 on: March 20, 2020, 02:59:33 am »

i mean, i'm not claiming.

i was having fun back at this site, but if fullclaim d1s is how games on this forum go, this'll likely be my last one.

This would be a first
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #495 on: March 20, 2020, 02:59:47 am »

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

vote: faust

The only reason you should know more than one item’s meaning is your scum partners telling you what they got.

Again, this seems like the biggest deal and no one is focused on it.

faust guessed 13/20 items.  He now knows he wasn't very far off on those.  How can that be? 

1) he somehow got mod information (hacking, etc.) -- seems unlikely
2) he got a role power that let him do multiple item+role cop actions on N1/D1 -- seems unbalanced
3) his scum partners (and district partner?) told him what their items are, providing him with up to 5 data points -- checks out

vote: faust
Maybe it's because someone else already raised this point and I explained myself:

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

Scumslip? Being right about 2 in 13 isn't really enough to be this confident.
It's enough to counter the argument that we don't have to care about the items at all because only a "clairvoyant" could figure out what they do.

Unless, you know, shraeye believes that I am clairvoyant.
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #496 on: March 20, 2020, 02:59:49 am »

And it's not going to happen, trust me
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #497 on: March 20, 2020, 03:02:50 am »

Seems suspect, though, doesn't it?  District partner could confirm, I guess.  District partner could be a scum partner, too.
What seems suspect? You believe I lied about knowing Glooble's role? That is some solid scum play right there.

In fact, I was the person to suggest that we should claim to our District partners when the game started.
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #498 on: March 20, 2020, 03:04:12 am »

Not only did they get to talk, they got to fully scheme with draft order set.  And they were able to do it knowing the rules of drafting, from what I can tell from date stamps.

On March 13, at 10:54 p.m., the mods added the drafting rules to this game thread.  After that time, QTs were unlocked.  So scum knew the game and were able to strategize for it.
The scum QT was locked for the secondary round of drafting, I got confirmation for that.
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Re: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Arena Opening Today!!
« Reply #499 on: March 20, 2020, 03:34:16 am »

And it's not going to happen, trust me

hey, i'm sorry. i got frustrated at the way this game seems to be going, with all sorts of claims happening willy-nilly. but i shouldn't have resorted to threatening to leave the site. because while i might not find d1 massclaims particularly fun, i'm pretty sure nobody finds emotional manipulation fun. so my bad.
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18:28 MEASURE YOUR LIFE IN LOVE: you shouldve done the decent thing and resign rather than go on being that lucky all the time

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