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[shraeye]

Shraeye is 100% not town, but there's a moderate chance that he's survivor-flavoured rather than mafia-flavoured.

I think shraeye has a lower chance to flip Survivor than any given other player has to flip town.

You're basing this certainty on extra info you have that you're still not sharing with the thread, and that you didn't mention in last night's QT, though, right? Or did I actually miss something?

Meh... I kind of find it unlikely that he has something like condemning in extra info right? Why not just state it? He is already conf!town (ish).. do we think it is best to push on that front rn?

I'm thinking specifically of this, and wondering whether I missed any update on it:

@Space, all the stuff I told cayvie in the QT is correct, I did not try to mislead there. I did however leave some things out, and part of what I left out is how I know shraeye is lying.

I don't want to speak for Faust, but I think that in that post he's referring to shraeye claiming not to have received a message about being blocked, which Faust is maintaining must be a lie because the blocking happens to whomever it is that receives the qt invite.

Aha, thank you for finding and re-posting that response from faust. I was indeed missing that piece. I feel like a paranoid survivor-type role might also deny having had their power blocked, so it's not exactly a guilty cop result.

I don't think at this stage anyone is contradicting faust on the fact that Shraeye lied to the thread, are they? I mean, flat-out denying that anything QT-like had happened, and then changing that later to say that actually, yes there is a QT and faust is green already qualifies as having lied in my opinion.

The question is just whether anyone other than faust is so totally convinced that lying to the thread in that way is so much more indicative of red-scum than a survivor. I honestly think that Shraeye is scummy, and that faust is convinced, and is frustrated that the rest of us aren't biting. But it's also concerning to me that faust puts such a high confidence on something I don't feel is so damning, which is why I was asking for clarification about whether there's more to it.

I do refute lying.  Faust asked if anything happened last night and I said no withot checking.  I didn't have to check because I was told I couldn't be targeted. 

It turns out I was wrong, but to paint that as lying automatically puts it in a sinister light, when I was consistently stating my honest belief

[faust]

Shraeye is 100% not town, but there's a moderate chance that he's survivor-flavoured rather than mafia-flavoured.

I think shraeye has a lower chance to flip Survivor than any given other player has to flip town.

You're basing this certainty on extra info you have that you're still not sharing with the thread, and that you didn't mention in last night's QT, though, right? Or did I actually miss something?

No, I'm basing this on information that has been shared.

[skip wooznum]

Request prod on Space

This is all going nowhere, and has been for like 5 days. Can we get another IC to step in?

Wow, sorry for going prodable. I'm keeping up, and thought I'd made a post yesterday, but keep second-guessing myself about whether it's a good idea for me to express reads at this point.

Do you think shraeye is lying?

1) He won't shoot
2) He cannot explain how he was hit with a qt from faust
3) He's making an arbitrary ultimatum to get out of skipping night

ps: I just realized that he probably is refusing to shoot because he actually did get blocked by faust, and already committed to the lie. @faust how long does your block last?

You're honestly saying you would have shot night one with my role??  Skip is scum, but hey why listen to me?

No. I'm not saying that.

[skip wooznum]

I'm saying you should shoot right now.

[SpaceAnemone]

Shraeye is 100% not town, but there's a moderate chance that he's survivor-flavoured rather than mafia-flavoured.

I think shraeye has a lower chance to flip Survivor than any given other player has to flip town.

You're basing this certainty on extra info you have that you're still not sharing with the thread, and that you didn't mention in last night's QT, though, right? Or did I actually miss something?

No, I'm basing this on information that has been shared.

So this is the points about denying there was anything in the QT from N2, and then also not revealing that he ought to have received a "blocked" notification N1 as well?

I agree it's suspicious, and you've outed him as non-town because of it, but I don't think it's definitively mafia-flavoured rather than survivor-flavoured.

Shraeye's version of events is that he wasn't checking his QT because he didn't think he could be targetted, and didn't want to activate his role at that point, I think. I can believe that someone in that position would just not think to check for random QT invitations in that instance, becuase I did just that on N3. Maybe Shraeye's mind should perhaps have been more focused on it during D2, when he could have checked his QT and found he'd been targeted N1, once Galz revealed that he had random people pulled into a QT, and others seemed to be supporting that story.

OTOH, as a scum-faction player, Shraeye would have had to have gone to the QT site in order to converse in the scum QT at night anyway, so he'd have been more likely to notice a mesage in his personal QT than survivor!Shraeye overall. Or is that just reflecting the way I handle my QTs, and not the general pattern for others? However, as a red-scum, he'd also have more incentive to deny having been affected by other people's actions, hence the denial about having seen messages/been targeted etc.

I think your inference is that the scum-faction scenario sounds less unlikely, and that a priori if we have a red-scum faction, the individual chance of Shraeye belonging to that faction is higher than the chance of him being a suvivor, therefore you believe overwhelmingly that he's most likely to be scum. Does this sum it up adequately?

[faust]

I think your inference is that the scum-faction scenario sounds less unlikely, and that a priori if we have a red-scum faction, the individual chance of Shraeye belonging to that faction is higher than the chance of him being a suvivor, therefore you believe overwhelmingly that he's most likely to be scum. Does this sum it up adequately?

Not really. I believe he's scum because he's clearly lying about his claim. He definitely doesn't have the power to shoot and probably doesn't have the power to skip a Night.

The only reason shraeye has to lie here, as already claimed non-town, is if his actual role is more hurtful to town than his claimed role. His claimed role is already a liability, so you can only imagine how bad his true role must be.

I'm not making any assumptions about shraeye's coloring.

[faust]

I agree it's suspicious, and you've outed him as non-town because of it, but I don't think it's definitively mafia-flavoured rather than survivor-flavoured.

No, I outed him as non-town because he claimed non-town to me and knowing who is and isn't town seemed like relevant information to the rest of town.

[faust]

I implied that I had some sort of result on him, that wasn't true, it was just the way he handled the QT that was supremely scummy. But I think believing that I had a result is what led shraeye to claim Survivor rather than town, so it all worked out just fine.

[SpaceAnemone]

Okay, I'm going to go ahead and

Vote: Shraeye

That's L-1.

[SpaceAnemone]

I think as IC I can get away with suggesting this publicly:

Ash, I noticed that one of our players has posted a VLA that may coincide with the first 24 hours of the night phase. Since the timing also makes me think it's likely to be a hard VLA, could we have enough of a night deadline extension that even if that player is on an evil faction, they have time to converse with hypothetical teammates and submit an action?

FWIW, I think Skip is quite townie here, but it wouldn't be fun for the game to have people's outside constriants interfere with our inference :-)

Oh, and apologies to Ash if I'm back-seat modding over something he's already thought of and planned for! Or maybe something entirely unexpected will happen instead anyway.

[mail-mi]

vote: shraeye

Thank goodness that's over with

[mail-mi]

I'll explain more tomorrow. I'm shraye's hunter.

[skip wooznum]

The heck?!

Mail-mi, you town?

[skip wooznum]

 Explain more now pleases thanks

[mail-mi]

The heck?!

Mail-mi, you town?

No. I'm a survivor variant as well. That's why I think there's only the yellow scum team.

[mail-mi]

Explain more now pleases thanks

To win, I have to kill the Last Princess (which is either with a NK or a hammer) and be alive at the end of the game.

[faust]

Well, someone for sure is out there killing people.

[skip wooznum]

On a side note, I'd appreciate a confirmation from you that something vaguely good happened to you last night, at the very least so I can know whether I've been redirected again.

@space, you might have missed this

[skip wooznum]

Explain more now pleases thanks

To win, I have to kill the Last Princess (which is either with a NK or a hammer) and be alive at the end of the game.

So do you know his alignment?

[skip wooznum]

Like, is he sk or survivor?

[mail-mi]

Explain more now pleases thanks

To win, I have to kill the Last Princess (which is either with a NK or a hammer) and be alive at the end of the game.

So do you know his alignment?

I don't.

[skip wooznum]

Explain more now pleases thanks

To win, I have to kill the Last Princess (which is either with a NK or a hammer) and be alive at the end of the game.

So you have a night kill? Have you been using it?

[mail-mi]

Explain more now pleases thanks

To win, I have to kill the Last Princess (which is either with a NK or a hammer) and be alive at the end of the game.

So you have a night kill? Have you been using it?

No. I don't want to claim everything about my role right now.

[SpaceAnemone]

On a side note, I'd appreciate a confirmation from you that something vaguely good happened to you last night, at the very least so I can know whether I've been redirected again.

The only thing that I know of that happened to me last night was getting sucked into the Galz-faction petition QT. And I did just go back to my QT to check I hadn't missed anything :-P

[mail-mi]

Explain more now pleases thanks

To win, I have to kill the Last Princess (which is either with a NK or a hammer) and be alive at the end of the game.

So you have a night kill? Have you been using it?

No. I don't want to claim everything about my role right now.

Well, I guess I shouldn't say no, but I don't have a factional nightly NK if that's what you're asking.