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[skip wooznum]

Request prod on Space

This is all going nowhere, and has been for like 5 days. Can we get another IC to step in?

Wow, sorry for going prodable. I'm keeping up, and thought I'd made a post yesterday, but keep second-guessing myself about whether it's a good idea for me to express reads at this point.

Do you think shraeye is lying?

1) He won't shoot
2) He cannot explain how he was hit with a qt from faust
3) He's making an arbitrary ultimatum to get out of skipping night

ps: I just realized that he probably is refusing to shoot because he actually did get blocked by faust, and already committed to the lie. @faust how long does your block last?

[SpaceAnemone]

Here's my current thinking:

Shraeye is 100% not town, but there's a moderate chance that he's survivor-flavoured rather than mafia-flavoured.

Faust is highly likely to be town. I don't buy the "blackmail" thing about Shraeye feeling forced into saying faust was introduced by Ash in their shared QT with green text, because Shraeye clearly knows that faust isn't going to be fully persuasive in a conversation in the main thread if it's just one person's word against another. That makes me tend to beleive that he said faust's text is green because it really was green, and Shraeye knows that letting faust know for certain that he's non-town by lying about it isn't good for Shraeye's survival, whatever faction Shraeye turns out to be.

I also get really scummy vibes from Mail-mi, particularly because his Shraeye read just doesn't feel genuine to me. In D2 he agreed that looking at the D1 wagons, he really ought to scumread Shraeye, but now he's just finding more reasons not to. Meanwhile Shraeye's big scumreads conveniently don't go near Mail-mi either. I'm kind of minded to want to lync mail-mi, and then if he flips scum, follow that up with Shraeye.

I'm also aware that I don't really have enough of a theory about how Eddie or EFHW fit in at the moment. Incidentally, whether or not mail-mi flips scum, I think his insistence that Skip is townie probably makes Skip townier in my eyes, given that there's a white-knighing sort incentive for mail-mi there.

PPE 1: Sorry.. question-answering will have to wait a little longer because I'm about to cook dinner and host a virtual boardgames night :-)

[mail-mi]

I also get really scummy vibes from Mail-mi, particularly because his Shraeye read just doesn't feel genuine to me. In D2 he agreed that looking at the D1 wagons, he really ought to scumread Shraeye, but now he's just finding more reasons not to. Meanwhile Shraeye's big scumreads conveniently don't go near Mail-mi either. I'm kind of minded to want to lync mail-mi, and then if he flips scum, follow that up with Shraeye.

I scumread shraeye? Honestly there's been so much not happening, and focusing a lot on the other game that I just forgot what my reads were, other than the reread I did on Eddie and EFHW. If I have time I'll do a shraeye reread.

[Swowl]

@shraeye, why, exactly don't you want to shoot somebody? Just take a potshot and hope you hit your hunter. Would you shoot somebody if we threatened to lynch you otherwise?

Because he can't. This isn't rocket science. shraeye's claimed role offers 2 ways of confirming parts of it, yet faced with his outing and probable lynch he did not offer either; he agreed to skipping the Night only after I pointed it out to him, and is now walking it back. And even though there is no clear downside, and no upside to waiting, he is refusing to shoot.

The reason is obviously that he has neither of these abilities. He's a scum who's trying to weasel out at least another Night where he lives, and another lynch made with no certainty that his team exists.

He's also using the whole "ashersky is being super vague" excuse, the same one Galzria used to cover up inconsistencies in his fakeclaim.

I had also noticed this from some previous posts.  I can't decide if it is like skummy or not though. Example being that it did not work out well for Galz.

[EFHW]

The vagueness really bothers me. Most mafia roles make sense, at least to the person playing them.

[faust]

Shraeye is 100% not town, but there's a moderate chance that he's survivor-flavoured rather than mafia-flavoured.

I think shraeye has a lower chance to flip Survivor than any given other player has to flip town.

[faust]

@shraeye, why, exactly don't you want to shoot somebody? Just take a potshot and hope you hit your hunter. Would you shoot somebody if we threatened to lynch you otherwise?

Because he can't. This isn't rocket science. shraeye's claimed role offers 2 ways of confirming parts of it, yet faced with his outing and probable lynch he did not offer either; he agreed to skipping the Night only after I pointed it out to him, and is now walking it back. And even though there is no clear downside, and no upside to waiting, he is refusing to shoot.

The reason is obviously that he has neither of these abilities. He's a scum who's trying to weasel out at least another Night where he lives, and another lynch made with no certainty that his team exists.

He's also using the whole "ashersky is being super vague" excuse, the same one Galzria used to cover up inconsistencies in his fakeclaim.

I had also noticed this from some previous posts.  I can't decide if it is like skummy or not though. Example being that it did not work out well for Galz.

It's scummy. Sure, scum would prefer not to make vague claims, but the truth is that if they are forced to make up a fakeclaim on short notice then there will be some gaps, and the vagueness helps prevent people poking holes in that fakeclaim.

[SpaceAnemone]

A similar question to @Mail-mi, about the MiX wagon from about #400. The wagon reached 7 at its peak (#320), but then faust moved off. LL and pubby were there, as was claimed-third-party Galz. Swan left the wagon at #409. What is your impression of the scum team's movements at that point, in terms of where they were voting if the MiX mislynch perhaps wasn't a big focus for them? Do you infer anything about Shraeye's or Swan's alignment?

Let me go take a look at those posts.

So the wagon at its peak was [mail-mi, shraeye, Galzria, DatSwan, faust, LaLight, pubby]. I find it hard to believe that there are no scum on this wagon, considering it was on town. I have a bit of a townier read on shraeye (no particular reason, just feelings and experiences with playing with shraeye in the past) so I'd say faust/DatSwan is more likely to be scum here. I'd have to do a reread of both to be certain, but I'd definitely be willing to switch to either of them (or shraeye if necessary) if it comes down to it.

Here's my question and Mail-mi's response. I think in my memory, he appeared slightly more willing to consider Shraeye than he actually does here, so it's nice that he got me to go and look out the actual quote :-P

Note that faust also called him out for colouring Galz purple in this post, which was before the Galz flip, when Galz being mafia was one of the current hypotheses. Of course, if mail-mi is mafia-coloured, he'd have known for sure that Galz was not, and would therefore have coloured him accordingly using the traditional third-party purple.

Going back to the wagon, from mail-mi's point of view now, it has to be Shraeye, Swan or faust. Shraeye is still someone he's actively trying not to lynch. He hasn't given any indication that he doesn't believe that faust is town, and yet he's also not making any noise about Swan, who would be the PoE candidate here. Though Swan left the wagon at #409 anyway, leaving mail-mi and Shraeye as the only two alignment-unconfirmed people voting for the easy town mislynch.

Oh, and the last thing I found off about mail-mi was his insistence that we should be looking for a third Galz-Cayvie faction member today, rather than hunting for our hypothesized red-mafia group. I can see that mindset coming from a member of non-yellow scum more than from town, because as town we just don't know where the NKs are coming from, but if red-scum knows that there are still kills that they're not responsible for, it makes more sense to look (or pretend to look) for more yellow-faction people while looking for other third-party players who might be causing kills.

PPE: faust

[SpaceAnemone]

Shraeye is 100% not town, but there's a moderate chance that he's survivor-flavoured rather than mafia-flavoured.

I think shraeye has a lower chance to flip Survivor than any given other player has to flip town.

You're basing this certainty on extra info you have that you're still not sharing with the thread, and that you didn't mention in last night's QT, though, right? Or did I actually miss something?

[Swowl]

A similar question to @Mail-mi, about the MiX wagon from about #400. The wagon reached 7 at its peak (#320), but then faust moved off. LL and pubby were there, as was claimed-third-party Galz. Swan left the wagon at #409. What is your impression of the scum team's movements at that point, in terms of where they were voting if the MiX mislynch perhaps wasn't a big focus for them? Do you infer anything about Shraeye's or Swan's alignment?

Let me go take a look at those posts.

So the wagon at its peak was [mail-mi, shraeye, Galzria, DatSwan, faust, LaLight, pubby]. I find it hard to believe that there are no scum on this wagon, considering it was on town. I have a bit of a townier read on shraeye (no particular reason, just feelings and experiences with playing with shraeye in the past) so I'd say faust/DatSwan is more likely to be scum here. I'd have to do a reread of both to be certain, but I'd definitely be willing to switch to either of them (or shraeye if necessary) if it comes down to it.

Here's my question and Mail-mi's response. I think in my memory, he appeared slightly more willing to consider Shraeye than he actually does here, so it's nice that he got me to go and look out the actual quote :-P

Note that faust also called him out for colouring Galz purple in this post, which was before the Galz flip, when Galz being mafia was one of the current hypotheses. Of course, if mail-mi is mafia-coloured, he'd have known for sure that Galz was not, and would therefore have coloured him accordingly using the traditional third-party purple.

Going back to the wagon, from mail-mi's point of view now, it has to be Shraeye, Swan or faust. Shraeye is still someone he's actively trying not to lynch. He hasn't given any indication that he doesn't believe that faust is town, and yet he's also not making any noise about Swan, who would be the PoE candidate here. Though Swan left the wagon at #409 anyway, leaving mail-mi and Shraeye as the only two alignment-unconfirmed people voting for the easy town mislynch.

Oh, and the last thing I found off about mail-mi was his insistence that we should be looking for a third Galz-Cayvie faction member today, rather than hunting for our hypothesized red-mafia group. I can see that mindset coming from a member of non-yellow scum more than from town, because as town we just don't know where the NKs are coming from, but if red-scum knows that there are still kills that they're not responsible for, it makes more sense to look (or pretend to look) for more yellow-faction people while looking for other third-party players who might be causing kills.

PPE: faust

1) very interesting on the purple color thing. the timing is weird. I mean its not damning by any means but it is a "strange color" to use.

2) Mail Mi put themselves as green (which I am actually one of those people that don't give a crap about that), but just saying - poe coming down to Swan is not accurate. a)because I left the wagon and b) because poe would be if I were included - Swan or MailMi.

If I gotta be on the list I will be on the list, but I want the whole list there

[Swowl]

Shraeye is 100% not town, but there's a moderate chance that he's survivor-flavoured rather than mafia-flavoured.

I think shraeye has a lower chance to flip Survivor than any given other player has to flip town.

You're basing this certainty on extra info you have that you're still not sharing with the thread, and that you didn't mention in last night's QT, though, right? Or did I actually miss something?

Meh... I kind of find it unlikely that he has something like condemning in extra info right? Why not just state it? He is already conf!town (ish).. do we think it is best to push on that front rn?

[SpaceAnemone]

A similar question to @Mail-mi, about the MiX wagon from about #400. The wagon reached 7 at its peak (#320), but then faust moved off. LL and pubby were there, as was claimed-third-party Galz. Swan left the wagon at #409. What is your impression of the scum team's movements at that point, in terms of where they were voting if the MiX mislynch perhaps wasn't a big focus for them? Do you infer anything about Shraeye's or Swan's alignment?

Let me go take a look at those posts.

So the wagon at its peak was [mail-mi, shraeye, Galzria, DatSwan, faust, LaLight, pubby]. I find it hard to believe that there are no scum on this wagon, considering it was on town. I have a bit of a townier read on shraeye (no particular reason, just feelings and experiences with playing with shraeye in the past) so I'd say faust/DatSwan is more likely to be scum here. I'd have to do a reread of both to be certain, but I'd definitely be willing to switch to either of them (or shraeye if necessary) if it comes down to it.

Here's my question and Mail-mi's response. I think in my memory, he appeared slightly more willing to consider Shraeye than he actually does here, so it's nice that he got me to go and look out the actual quote :-P

Note that faust also called him out for colouring Galz purple in this post, which was before the Galz flip, when Galz being mafia was one of the current hypotheses. Of course, if mail-mi is mafia-coloured, he'd have known for sure that Galz was not, and would therefore have coloured him accordingly using the traditional third-party purple.

Going back to the wagon, from mail-mi's point of view now, it has to be Shraeye, Swan or faust. Shraeye is still someone he's actively trying not to lynch. He hasn't given any indication that he doesn't believe that faust is town, and yet he's also not making any noise about Swan, who would be the PoE candidate here. Though Swan left the wagon at #409 anyway, leaving mail-mi and Shraeye as the only two alignment-unconfirmed people voting for the easy town mislynch.

Oh, and the last thing I found off about mail-mi was his insistence that we should be looking for a third Galz-Cayvie faction member today, rather than hunting for our hypothesized red-mafia group. I can see that mindset coming from a member of non-yellow scum more than from town, because as town we just don't know where the NKs are coming from, but if red-scum knows that there are still kills that they're not responsible for, it makes more sense to look (or pretend to look) for more yellow-faction people while looking for other third-party players who might be causing kills.

PPE: faust

1) very interesting on the purple color thing. the timing is weird. I mean its not damning by any means but it is a "strange color" to use.

2) Mail Mi put themselves as green (which I am actually one of those people that don't give a crap about that), but just saying - poe coming down to Swan is not accurate. a)because I left the wagon and b) because poe would be if I were included - Swan or MailMi.

If I gotta be on the list I will be on the list, but I want the whole list there

For your point 2, I think you miss that I was specifically referring to mail-mi's point of view, so to him, if he's green, then you or Shraeye (or fuast) ought to be red, given that he'd stated a belief that there ought to be at least one scum on a wagon like that. So since mail-mi is quite strongly defending Shraeye, I feel that it ought to colour his perception of you more than I think it does.

[SpaceAnemone]

Shraeye is 100% not town, but there's a moderate chance that he's survivor-flavoured rather than mafia-flavoured.

I think shraeye has a lower chance to flip Survivor than any given other player has to flip town.

You're basing this certainty on extra info you have that you're still not sharing with the thread, and that you didn't mention in last night's QT, though, right? Or did I actually miss something?

Meh... I kind of find it unlikely that he has something like condemning in extra info right? Why not just state it? He is already conf!town (ish).. do we think it is best to push on that front rn?

I'm thinking specifically of this, and wondering whether I missed any update on it:

@Space, all the stuff I told cayvie in the QT is correct, I did not try to mislead there. I did however leave some things out, and part of what I left out is how I know shraeye is lying.

[skip wooznum]

Shraeye is 100% not town, but there's a moderate chance that he's survivor-flavoured rather than mafia-flavoured.

I think shraeye has a lower chance to flip Survivor than any given other player has to flip town.

You're basing this certainty on extra info you have that you're still not sharing with the thread, and that you didn't mention in last night's QT, though, right? Or did I actually miss something?

Meh... I kind of find it unlikely that he has something like condemning in extra info right? Why not just state it? He is already conf!town (ish).. do we think it is best to push on that front rn?

I'm thinking specifically of this, and wondering whether I missed any update on it:

@Space, all the stuff I told cayvie in the QT is correct, I did not try to mislead there. I did however leave some things out, and part of what I left out is how I know shraeye is lying.

I don't want to speak for Faust, but I think that in that post he's referring to shraeye claiming not to have received a message about being blocked, which Faust is maintaining must be a lie because the blocking happens to whomever it is that receives the qt invite.

[skip wooznum]

It's hard to comment on faust's reasons for thinking shraeye is scum, because those reasons have not been made public. They might be good reasons.

I'd be more comfortable if he shared them.

Can do. I mean I already shared the part where he seemed to have checked for QTs and still didn't seem to have found mine. The second part is this:

The power that I used to get shraeye into the Neighborhood is one I used N1. (I did not actually target shraeye) Part of that power, in addition to being invited to the Neighborhood N2, was that all actions shraeye took N1 were block, and that he would be informed that he was unable to use night actions. However, he claimed that nothing like that happened to him over the course of the game.

Here is the post.

[Swowl]

A similar question to @Mail-mi, about the MiX wagon from about #400. The wagon reached 7 at its peak (#320), but then faust moved off. LL and pubby were there, as was claimed-third-party Galz. Swan left the wagon at #409. What is your impression of the scum team's movements at that point, in terms of where they were voting if the MiX mislynch perhaps wasn't a big focus for them? Do you infer anything about Shraeye's or Swan's alignment?

Let me go take a look at those posts.

So the wagon at its peak was [mail-mi, shraeye, Galzria, DatSwan, faust, LaLight, pubby]. I find it hard to believe that there are no scum on this wagon, considering it was on town. I have a bit of a townier read on shraeye (no particular reason, just feelings and experiences with playing with shraeye in the past) so I'd say faust/DatSwan is more likely to be scum here. I'd have to do a reread of both to be certain, but I'd definitely be willing to switch to either of them (or shraeye if necessary) if it comes down to it.

Here's my question and Mail-mi's response. I think in my memory, he appeared slightly more willing to consider Shraeye than he actually does here, so it's nice that he got me to go and look out the actual quote :-P

Note that faust also called him out for colouring Galz purple in this post, which was before the Galz flip, when Galz being mafia was one of the current hypotheses. Of course, if mail-mi is mafia-coloured, he'd have known for sure that Galz was not, and would therefore have coloured him accordingly using the traditional third-party purple.

Going back to the wagon, from mail-mi's point of view now, it has to be Shraeye, Swan or faust. Shraeye is still someone he's actively trying not to lynch. He hasn't given any indication that he doesn't believe that faust is town, and yet he's also not making any noise about Swan, who would be the PoE candidate here. Though Swan left the wagon at #409 anyway, leaving mail-mi and Shraeye as the only two alignment-unconfirmed people voting for the easy town mislynch.

Oh, and the last thing I found off about mail-mi was his insistence that we should be looking for a third Galz-Cayvie faction member today, rather than hunting for our hypothesized red-mafia group. I can see that mindset coming from a member of non-yellow scum more than from town, because as town we just don't know where the NKs are coming from, but if red-scum knows that there are still kills that they're not responsible for, it makes more sense to look (or pretend to look) for more yellow-faction people while looking for other third-party players who might be causing kills.

PPE: faust

1) very interesting on the purple color thing. the timing is weird. I mean its not damning by any means but it is a "strange color" to use.

2) Mail Mi put themselves as green (which I am actually one of those people that don't give a crap about that), but just saying - poe coming down to Swan is not accurate. a)because I left the wagon and b) because poe would be if I were included - Swan or MailMi.

If I gotta be on the list I will be on the list, but I want the whole list there

For your point 2, I think you miss that I was specifically referring to mail-mi's point of view, so to him, if he's green, then you or Shraeye (or fuast) ought to be red, given that he'd stated a belief that there ought to be at least one scum on a wagon like that. So since mail-mi is quite strongly defending Shraeye, I feel that it ought to colour his perception of you more than I think it does.

ah yeah I just misinterpreted what you were going with then totally. nvm!

[SpaceAnemone]

Shraeye is 100% not town, but there's a moderate chance that he's survivor-flavoured rather than mafia-flavoured.

I think shraeye has a lower chance to flip Survivor than any given other player has to flip town.

You're basing this certainty on extra info you have that you're still not sharing with the thread, and that you didn't mention in last night's QT, though, right? Or did I actually miss something?

Meh... I kind of find it unlikely that he has something like condemning in extra info right? Why not just state it? He is already conf!town (ish).. do we think it is best to push on that front rn?

I'm thinking specifically of this, and wondering whether I missed any update on it:

@Space, all the stuff I told cayvie in the QT is correct, I did not try to mislead there. I did however leave some things out, and part of what I left out is how I know shraeye is lying.

I don't want to speak for Faust, but I think that in that post he's referring to shraeye claiming not to have received a message about being blocked, which Faust is maintaining must be a lie because the blocking happens to whomever it is that receives the qt invite.

Aha, thank you for finding and re-posting that response from faust. I was indeed missing that piece. I feel like a paranoid survivor-type role might also deny having had their power blocked, so it's not exactly a guilty cop result.

I don't think at this stage anyone is contradicting faust on the fact that Shraeye lied to the thread, are they? I mean, flat-out denying that anything QT-like had happened, and then changing that later to say that actually, yes there is a QT and faust is green already qualifies as having lied in my opinion.

The question is just whether anyone other than faust is so totally convinced that lying to the thread in that way is so much more indicative of red-scum than a survivor. I honestly think that Shraeye is scummy, and that faust is convinced, and is frustrated that the rest of us aren't biting. But it's also concerning to me that faust puts such a high confidence on something I don't feel is so damning, which is why I was asking for clarification about whether there's more to it.

[SpaceAnemone]

We have just over 24 hours remaining. I'm happy to put Shraeye up to L-1, but I'm about to head to bed, so I'd rather leave it till I'm more awake.

I feel like I'm not going to vote outside of {Shraeye, mail-mi} today. I'm aware that there are some votes on EFHW, but I think the evidence against her (at least for me) is related to the cases against these other two, so flips will help. And if anyone wants to vote outside of {Shraeye, mail-mi, EFHW}, I think that needs considerable justification.

Does anyone (other than probably Shraeye!) think I'm talking nonsense or missing something important?

@Shraeye, sorry, I know we tend not to see eye to eye even when we're both town, and I don't mean to single you out in a negative way. I really feel here like you're caught scum, or at least caught non-town, and there's not much you can do to rescue that. And I'm guessing you're not being granted a lot of sleep and stuff right now, so this must be extra-tough. I wish you well :-)

[ashersky]

Vote Count: 3.9

EFHW (2): uncle, DatSwan
shraeye (3): faust, EFHW, 2.7
uncle (1): mail-mi


Not Voting (3): SpaceAnemone, shraeye, skip

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends at 20:00 on May 1 forum time.

My actual availability right at the deadline moment is unknown, but at some point around that time I will definitely be here.

[skip wooznum]

Does anyone (other than probably Shraeye!) think I'm talking nonsense or missing something important?

I agree with most of what you've said and you're posts definitely helped me get a clearer picture of things in my head.

I'm with you that we should be lynching shraeye or mail-mi, but I think shraeye is the place to start, and depending on his flip, we'll take it from there.

On a side note, I'd appreciate a confirmation from you that something vaguely good happened to you last night, at the very least so I can know whether I've been redirected again.

[skip wooznum]

Does anyone (other than probably Shraeye!) think I'm talking nonsense or missing something important?

I agree with most of what you've said and your posts definitely helped me get a clearer picture of things in my head.

I'm with you that we should be lynching shraeye or mail-mi, but I think shraeye is the place to start, and depending on his flip, we'll take it from there.

On a side note, I'd appreciate a confirmation from you that something vaguely good happened to you last night, at the very least so I can know whether I've been redirected again.

[shraeye]

Request prod on Space

This is all going nowhere, and has been for like 5 days. Can we get another IC to step in?

Wow, sorry for going prodable. I'm keeping up, and thought I'd made a post yesterday, but keep second-guessing myself about whether it's a good idea for me to express reads at this point.

Do you think shraeye is lying?

1) He won't shoot
2) He cannot explain how he was hit with a qt from faust
3) He's making an arbitrary ultimatum to get out of skipping night

ps: I just realized that he probably is refusing to shoot because he actually did get blocked by faust, and already committed to the lie. @faust how long does your block last?

It's not arbitrary, and the power is in your hands.  Want me to not skip out?  I've just presented a perfectly easy way for that to happen.  Don't want it?  Not my fault.

[shraeye]

Request prod on Space

This is all going nowhere, and has been for like 5 days. Can we get another IC to step in?

Wow, sorry for going prodable. I'm keeping up, and thought I'd made a post yesterday, but keep second-guessing myself about whether it's a good idea for me to express reads at this point.

Do you think shraeye is lying?

1) He won't shoot
2) He cannot explain how he was hit with a qt from faust
3) He's making an arbitrary ultimatum to get out of skipping night

ps: I just realized that he probably is refusing to shoot because he actually did get blocked by faust, and already committed to the lie. @faust how long does your block last?

You're honestly saying you would have shot night one with my role??  Skip is scum, but hey why listen to me?

[shraeye]

. I don't buy the "blackmail" thing about Shraeye feeling forced into saying faust was introduced by Ash in their shared QT with green text, because Shraeye clearly knows that faust isn't going to be fully persuasive in a conversation in the main thread if it's just one person's word against another.

A) tough, blackmail is what happened
B) Faust had a real hard time convincing e, right right.

[shraeye]

The vagueness really bothers me. Most mafia roles make sense, at least to the person playing them.

You realize the number and detail of questions being asked, right?  Like, somebody asked me what another players powers are.