OK small request - I need like half a day to respond to evidently a ton of shit here. I had a giant work event today and I am just freeking exhausted and I don't have the mind power to go through and respond to everything I want to at this point. I think at least, I am gonna start and just stop when I essentially pass out and pick it up later.
1)
Vote: Datswan
Me and joth not being town/town is the biggest rubbish I've heard all game
- This is absurd. Like even if Joseph is town this is absurd. Let's say Joseph is Town... they get the 1 shot for Neo.. They pick Joth. Weird choice imo, but whatever moving past that... Joseph would be picking between 10 other people... 3 of which are skum. So there is a 30% chance that this pick skum, a 10% chance they pick JK, and a 60% chance they pick VT. They then get a "not VT result". Put aside my assumption that we do not really need to be thinking we have 2 ICs here... Why in all the hell would Joseph not be suspicious of Joth here? If they Neo the JK, the JK claims JK. If they neo skum, the skum claims JK. It plays out the same. Why is it rubbish for me to not assume they are both town from Joseph's POV when they should themselves be at least moderately suspicious. It's not like they Neo'd Joth to try to clear Joth, they Neo'd them to hopefully get a result. Then they got a result... now they just wholey believe Joth? That... that is what doesn't make sense.
2)
Upon further reflection, I agree with DatSwan that we should take a step back from assuming we now have 2 ICs. Joseph could have been trying to frame joth and got unlucky that he hit the jk. Joth could be scum who pretty much has to claim jk or be lynched.
If joth isn't the jk, the real jk is putting us in a really terrible position.....
- Then this. This is the opposite of a terrible position. It is only a terrible position if the tables are then turned on a random third party town (hint hint). The play for JK here is absolutely NOT TO CLAIM if Joth is not the JK. If anyone ever flips JK, then we have a free skum. If Joth isn't JK, and JK claims, then we get the free lynch now... which is albeit better... but the EV on the situation def goes to JK not claiming here.
3)
The idea that scum!joseph claims a result on town!joth is nutso bonkers. Swan's big post honestly makes me think that he was the one who made the kill last night and is trying to keep other scenarios open
-Right. That is why I said it was 1/4 potential instances. I did not say it is the only one. Also, just saying... If there was a player to pick for that circumstance, Joth would of been a good candidate. Because of the Day 2 duel, skum would know that there were quite a few people that would be ok looking at Joth (even more so after Glooble flipped). So, if they did choose to pick a town to make this claim, Joth would kind of be the one to pick.
4)
And looks like a good JK role block last night
You are not an IC. You probably are not even town. stop spinning it that way.
That is all I have I guess for now. I think that the people pushing me are coming off as opportunistic, but also they cannot all be skum. I thought/think ADK is skummy but I doubt that both skum ADK and skum Joseph would team up here like this ... and if I have to pick I obv am picking Joseph.
Joth is a non case for me at this point. I had forgotten that they had a BP tbh, and with that added onto the table for NK possibles, they are just gone from my lynch pool. Also, as I know I am town and this is happening and there is no duel... I am assuming that they are telling the truth.
Someone also said that they did not think that skum would come out the gate like this with a claim today. I do not agree, I think they would. They are super ahead right now, and anyone that has mathed out the game knows that it is gonna either be like a straight skum victory or it will most likely run to final 3 alive. That gives them all the reason in the world to try and start painting doubt and making images asap.
I will read back better later and see what is up but I do not get why I have so much hate right now. I feel like the ideas I laid out are fairly sound.
Vote: Joseph