Weak ass case on why I think Glooble is skummier than Joth...
1)
So is it a bad idea to vote yes on the duel d1?
I think it's a bad idea if you think both combatants are town and a good idea if you think one of them is scum.
- OK... Day 1... 2 players are selected after 48 hours. There are no reads. this is just a non-point that seems overly towny. it could also just be towny.
2)
I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.
I think that scum!mix is self-aware enough to know that this is how town!mix would probably open things up and emulate it. Nothing he's said so far screams town to me
vote: mix
I agree that MiX is self-aware but I also think that MiX could find townier and scummier lines of play that both read as authentically MiX-like and I don't think he chooses the scummiest one as scum.
OTOH, We always try to lynch MiX day one and we never succeed, so maybe MiX is counting on that trend continuing.
- Again, super open ended. Kind of "MiX doesn't act this way as skum... but MiX would know that". Gives a back door for someone they admit to know is targeted a lot day 1. OTOH MiX was the NK... which seems just SUPER FREEKING WEIRD (whole other thing to bring up there). MiX always gets suspected at some point. It didn't happen day 1 really, so killing them is just a super odd choice.
3)
I'm neither pro-duel nor anti-duel. I will vote for a duel if I think it has a reasonably good chance of containing scum, and I will vote against a duel if it's more likely to me that both players are town. I'm not sure I see the advantage of having a default preference for duel or no duel.
- This falls into the category of "Glooble doesn't post shit without thinking it through first".... "There is no default"
of course there is a default. The default should un-arguably be to vote no unless you think someone is likely skum (as they actually like.. said in this post)... so that is off.
4)
vote: DatSwan
Hard to articulate exactly why but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.
Please try, do you disagree with his analysis? Do you think the analysis is pushing us in a direction? Do you think the analysis is redundant? Do you think town!swan is unlikely to make analysis like that? Do you think scum!swan benefits from that analysis post?
Day 1 Duel: It is 100%, almost unarguably, wrong to go for the duel on Day 1.
I am not saying the duel concept is bad. For every negative there is a potential positive. Examples:
a) Items - Town could get a PR, or skum could get the fake claim.
b) % chance vs control vs plurality - it would seem the % chance of having a skum selected day 1 is fairly similar to randomly choosing a player to lynch day 1. The difference is that it does take some control away from skum in the duel setting. Without the duel we need 8 to lynch, with the duel it is just majority. However, on day one we assume we will lynch town... that does not change just because there is a duel. So it gives skum less control over keeping one of their own alive, but only if one of their own is selected... if it is TownvTown... it is all bad news.
---This is the important one---
c) Information - When we isolate the field to 2 players the info we have to look back on is EXTREMELY LIMITED. If we roll SkumVTown and go to lynch it could prove useful. However, that cannot be an expectation. If the mod selects player A and player B to duel and we have to choose between them... we can still just say no and have the chance at lynching player A or Player B. The argument against would be to put skum in a tough spot with plurality and take the duel to force a lynch... but it is day one... so the only people that actually know anything are skum.
This post is sort of null on the balance- he starts with "100%, inarguably wrong" but then follows it up with a post that sort of presents the arguments for and against, so its hardly "unarguable". But that kind of bold, black and white statement feels to me like scum!swan trying to get town points by taking a strong stance. Then bullet point b is just a lot of talking without saying much of anything, which is scummy. I will give Swan town points for point C though, it's a good point and not something I would necessarily bring up as scum.
Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.
I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.
At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.
Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.
The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.
1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.
2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting
3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.
This was the post that felt really scummy to me. I think it's just the way he's setting up expectations for exactly how he thinks scum will play it. Maybe so he can act differently and then use his theory for how scum would play to defend his play/ his teammates' play as townie? I don't know, it's not a strong case, he just feels off to me.
- Bias again. But this was weak ass reasoning. I get the perspective, and then they bailed on it. But it struck me as advantageous at the time... which is normally how I get mislynched.
5)
Well that was fun while it lasted. I now think DatSwan is town.
vote: pubby I guess?
- So this is the unvote and move to pubby. Puts pubby at 4. I was getting no traction. I guess that is null, but notable.
6)
If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.
- Super lame and straightforward reasoning that I would not use if it wasn't heads up... but getting a no vote in quick is skummy by comparison to Joth's approach.
7)
MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default
Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead
Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.
Meh. That's such a non-post.
I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.
- Backing down again super easy. Weird for Gloobs.
Look, last game I had a scummy feeling about pingpongsam all game, but I never acted on it because I didn't have evidence. It turned out pps was scum. A few games ago on lynchpool I caught scum!shraeye based pretty much entirely on a gut read that I couldn't articulate. So I resolved to start trusting my reads more, hence the vote for Swan without explanation. Then mcmcsalot called me on it and everybody said they were townreading Swan, so I looked more closely, and figured out what it was I found scummy, but I also found some towny stuff in that reread. I didn't back off because the lynch wasn't gaining traction, I backed off because he made a post that felt very townie and changed my read on him.
I'm flattered that you think I'm better than this as town, but the fact is my day 1 cases as town pretty much always suck (and often they're on DatSwan.)
- Totally accurate. Except they bailed on me really quick this time. Normally I get a tunnel.
9)
Your case on me, though, is, frankly below your usual standards.
Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.
- Bias again.. again again... this is how I find most people respond to cases on them Day 1 when skum when they have time on their side. They just dismiss it.
10)
1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.
I was being coy because there was a very specific circumstance where I might have been able to gotcha scum, but with your claim that dream is dead.
At the last minute, I voted yes for the duel. It was a change in my previous thinking. For one thing, ADK had been scumread by Glooble, who I tend to trust, and e wasn’t having an exceptionally townie game. It felt like they were both decent day 1 lynches. And partly I felt it would be better for the vote to be closer, for this scenario we’re in right now.
Here's a thing - joth is saying he, at least partially, based his vote on my scum case against ADK, which was actually against DatSwan. Joth had a whole day to decide yes or no. You'd think he would have reread. I did. But if he had reread he would have seen that my case was on Swan. This seems like an easier mistake for scum!joth to have made while coming up with a townie justification for his vote.
- Everything about this makes sense. Except for the last part where Joth makes this mistake as skum while coming up with justification for their vote. If anything they could make the mistake on an original case... but to be defending oneself as skum... you don't make that blunder imo.
and then there is a continuous amount of posts that I cannot find skummy. Which is why this duel sucks. However, there are a few things that are weird:
1) If Glooble thought Joth was skum, why did Glooble follow Joth's vote around everywhere?
2) If Glooble thought Joth was skum, why would Glooble agree to post this reads list (at Joth's request) after the only other player that posted was conf!town MiX:
DatSwan - leaning town but still a tiny bit suspicious
Awaclus - he is acting less belligerent than usual, but I refuse to lynch him for that
jotheonah - not that scummy but scummier than anyone else to me right now
Glooble - town
Joseph2302 - null
2.71828..... - I could be convinced to vote here. I should reread.
0Ix - who?
Debatepro - can't remember anything he's done this game
MiX - townish
EFHW - town
A Drowned Kernel - probably town, despite our disagreements about how scum would act
Robz888 - null, this new meta sucks
pubby - was leaning scum, now leaning null
mcmcsalot - town
3) I am about as pro info as you get as town. But lists on Day 1 are almost always a horrible idea for Town. Suppose that is points against both Joth and Glooble though:
As scum I would absolutely just make shit up, but I don't do that as town. So if I have no strong scumreads, you get a readlist with no strong scumreads.
There is a third option you know, besides "make stuff up" and "make a list with no strong scumreads". I wonder if you can guess what it is...
Pull an Awaclus and refuse to make a list?
4)
Glooble (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (1): Glooble
Can both of you (especially Glooble) explain what this is supposed to mean to everyone else?
This is my way of asking "why is he the scummiest player" to both of you.
I still think joth’s more than likely scum. But you’re right, it’s not a useful place to have my vote right now.
I’m gonna join this Robz train. He’s a very good joth partner candidate.
vote: Robz
- Skummy
So yeah... I am Glooble over Joth.