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[gkrieg13]

I'm fine with a gkrieg lynch.  And I'm getting paranoid about my townread on iguana again - anyone else feeling that way?

I have gone back and forth some, but I don't think he's scum. At any rate he's, like, the most active player now, so wouldn't be a good lynch regardless.

Just not lyching active players is not the best mindset to have.

[Witherweaver]

Let's not no lynch. Let's lynch Gkrieg and get a scum.

Or, you know, we could not let you derail a scum buddy in Jake.

Are you convinced Jake is scum?

[Witherweaver]

I'm fine with a gkrieg lynch.  And I'm getting paranoid about my townread on iguana again - anyone else feeling that way?

I have gone back and forth some, but I don't think he's scum. At any rate he's, like, the most active player now, so wouldn't be a good lynch regardless.

Just not lyching active players is not the best mindset to have.

But it is a good thing to take into account, especially earlier in the game.

[Witherweaver]

Haddock it's two traitors because Caitlin Frost, who was a traitor in their previous game, is the only role that can freeze people.

Ah yes I remember.  Thanks, that makes sense. 

Yeah we need to be moving towards a lynch now.  I'm happy with either Jake or gkrieg.  Or even Swan though not so much now, after all the PoEs etc.

I'll vote: gkrieg just to try to move things along.  Meanwhile can people also answer this question?

And I'm getting paranoid about my townread on iguana again - anyone else feeling that way?

I think he's said townie things, and I think he's been a little bit abrasive - but I feel he plays that way more as scum than town. Certainly I felt that way as his scum partner in 100 - especially seeing him as town in follow up games where he definitely felt... less so. That is to say - I find he's more talkative and tends to come off with townier sounding posts when he's scum, and less talkative and scummier when he's town.

I also think that IF Ash flips town, then almost certainly one of him/Datswan are scum - and right now I lean a stronger town on DatSwan than I do on Iguana. If Ash flips scum, then I would re-evaluate. But I do not believe that the top 6 were all town except for PPS as the SK/Survivor.

Where does the Ash town => scum in {Iguana, Datswan} implication come from?

[Witherweaver]

Haddock it's two traitors because Caitlin Frost, who was a traitor in their previous game, is the only role that can freeze people.

Ah yes I remember.  Thanks, that makes sense. 

Yeah we need to be moving towards a lynch now.  I'm happy with either Jake or gkrieg.  Or even Swan though not so much now, after all the PoEs etc.

I'll vote: gkrieg just to try to move things along.  Meanwhile can people also answer this question?

And I'm getting paranoid about my townread on iguana again - anyone else feeling that way?

I think he's said townie things, and I think he's been a little bit abrasive - but I feel he plays that way more as scum than town. Certainly I felt that way as his scum partner in 100 - especially seeing him as town in follow up games where he definitely felt... less so. That is to say - I find he's more talkative and tends to come off with townier sounding posts when he's scum, and less talkative and scummier when he's town.

I also think that IF Ash flips town, then almost certainly one of him/Datswan are scum - and right now I lean a stronger town on DatSwan than I do on Iguana. If Ash flips scum, then I would re-evaluate. But I do not believe that the top 6 were all town except for PPS as the SK/Survivor.

You are the only one who has ever described my scum games in this way. I lurk as scum because I don't know how to treat my partners. Pretty well documented. I crack really easily under pressure too.

You haven't gotten pressure this game, notably.

[gkrieg13]

I'm fine with a gkrieg lynch.  And I'm getting paranoid about my townread on iguana again - anyone else feeling that way?

I have gone back and forth some, but I don't think he's scum. At any rate he's, like, the most active player now, so wouldn't be a good lynch regardless.

Just not lyching active players is not the best mindset to have.

But it is a good thing to take into account, especially earlier in the game.

I guess I would argue that we aren't that early in the game.

[gkrieg13]

vote: iguana

He is jumping around and tunneling people too easily IMO.  Sheeping with floppy reasoning.

[Witherweaver]

Okay, well, if I'm reading this right, from Night 1, at most three players in

{EFHW, gkrieg, Jake, Dylan, IG, Silver}

can be town,

so there are at least three scum in there? Silver is frozen so that narrows it down; IG has been pretty townie.  That leaves {EFHW, gkrieg, Jake, Dylan}.

Just read this, and we are assuming that silver is town because of being frozen, but that may not be the best assumption to make.  Also one more important thing to note is that WW is also excluding himself from this analysis and saying he is town.

That is not what I am assuming, which I have pointed out multiple times.

But it is the case that we aren't lynching Silver today (can we even lynch frozen people?), and being frozen does give points in the town direction. So he's excluded for now.

I am town, but everyone else can look at their position in the colors and make the analogous argument. Many will be the same; some will be even stronger if they were included in the Red list both times. (I was only in one day.)

[Witherweaver]

Hmm.

Yeah, based on what I know about last Night and on today's analysis, I'll vote: Jake.

If chairs is being removed from people's lynch pools based on his townieness, what do they think of this?  To be clear, I don't want chairs to clarify anything about his role.

I actually missed this. I don't think Chairs is all that townie, though.

Can you clarify, Chairs?

[Haddock]

Haddock, did you check with Faust how a Godfather would affect your results?

Am checking now. 

I'm fine with a gkrieg lynch.  And I'm getting paranoid about my townread on iguana again - anyone else feeling that way?

I have gone back and forth some, but I don't think he's scum. At any rate he's, like, the most active player now, so wouldn't be a good lynch regardless.

Eurgh.  I'm getting igu-WW partner vibes, like I did early in the game. 

@Galzria, A second lone wolf could share one of pps's colors, survivor or SK. I doubt SK bc of so few kills, but I don't think 3 mafia is as certain as you do.

If it's a second survivor I don't really care - and again with this many players having a Mafia "team" (QT access) of only two players, who have yet to show a kill, seems highly unlikely. The only "kills" that have been made are Lynches of PPS, a Mod kill, the "lynch" of Space, and probably* Ash, which would come from a traitor anyway and may very well be on scum.

A second SK, as you note, is even more unlikely.

2/2/1/1/10 is highly unbalanced against Mafia. There are, almost certainly, 3 "regular" mafia.

So I mean point taken, but isn't that only sixteen players?

So assuming 3/2/1/1/10... Is that likely? I mean I am actually asking, this is only the second 17 person game I have every played

Mafia would need a team of at least 5 to be balanced.  Mistborn had 5 regular mafia with this many people.

My results make 5 or more mafia impossible.  There could be some kind of messing with my results.  But let's not speculate right now, huh? 

I'm fine with a gkrieg lynch.  And I'm getting paranoid about my townread on iguana again - anyone else feeling that way?

I'm definitely feeling that way.  He had a post where he said that he just wanted to catch and kill all the scums, which is something he has said as scum before.  I also don't like how quickly he was removed from PoE, when he as I remember should be in the same group as me and Jake and silver.

The same PoE applies to him, yes.  But when I reread him my original scumread on him became very heavy town.  And now I'm doubting myself again. 

Let's face it we're not getting a lynch through on him today.

Why are we not getting a lynch through on him?  There were 4 people IIRC who were PoEd by your results, iguana, Jake, myself, silver.  People then said that we wouldn't lynch silver today (I agree), and that iguana was townie, then everyone basically has reiterated that iguana is townie so the lynch pool is {gkrieg, Jake}.  I agree that the PoE is there, but it seems like people aren't realizing that the PoE has been taken down further than is 100% true.  I guess what I'm trying to say is that it seems like everyone agreed that because of PoE, one of {gkrieg,Jake} must be scum, which isn't what the results show.

We have 24 hours still, so we could get a lynch through on anyone really.

I just don't think this is happening because too many people have town reads on him.  Especially active people like WW.

I'd happily vote Jake, gkrieg, or iguana at this point, I just want to get a lynch through. 

[Witherweaver]

I can say I have voting restrictions.

It would be pretty surprising to me if faust put a role with voting restrictions in the game.

I mean we had Schadd already, so not much of a stretch.

[Witherweaver]

If Jake has voting restrictions, isn't that pretty close to a claim? There have not been that many RMMs with voting restriction roles, from my memory.

[gkrieg13]

I can say I have voting restrictions.

It would be pretty surprising to me if faust put a role with voting restrictions in the game.

I mean we had Schadd already, so not much of a stretch.

I would argue that it is more of a stretch because we already had one this game.

[Haddock]

If Jake has voting restrictions, isn't that pretty close to a claim? There have not been that many RMMs with voting restriction roles, from my memory.

So he should just freaking claim already.

[Witherweaver]

I can say I have voting restrictions.

It would be pretty surprising to me if faust put a role with voting restrictions in the game.

I mean we had Schadd already, so not much of a stretch.

I would argue that it is more of a stretch because we already had one this game.

Not a great argument. If Jake is town he's surely telling the truth about this. If he's scum it almost has to be a provided fakeclaim, which means it's plausible that it could be in the game.

[Witherweaver]

If Jake has voting restrictions, isn't that pretty close to a claim? There have not been that many RMMs with voting restriction roles, from my memory.

So he should just freaking claim already.

This is true, actually.

[Galzria]

vote: iguana

[Haddock]

I want to know what e thinks.

[Galzria]

Haddock it's two traitors because Caitlin Frost, who was a traitor in their previous game, is the only role that can freeze people.

Ah yes I remember.  Thanks, that makes sense. 

Yeah we need to be moving towards a lynch now.  I'm happy with either Jake or gkrieg.  Or even Swan though not so much now, after all the PoEs etc.

I'll vote: gkrieg just to try to move things along.  Meanwhile can people also answer this question?

And I'm getting paranoid about my townread on iguana again - anyone else feeling that way?

I think he's said townie things, and I think he's been a little bit abrasive - but I feel he plays that way more as scum than town. Certainly I felt that way as his scum partner in 100 - especially seeing him as town in follow up games where he definitely felt... less so. That is to say - I find he's more talkative and tends to come off with townier sounding posts when he's scum, and less talkative and scummier when he's town.

I also think that IF Ash flips town, then almost certainly one of him/Datswan are scum - and right now I lean a stronger town on DatSwan than I do on Iguana. If Ash flips scum, then I would re-evaluate. But I do not believe that the top 6 were all town except for PPS as the SK/Survivor.

Where does the Ash town => scum in {Iguana, Datswan} implication come from?

I don't believe that there is no mafia in the top 6 drafts. Even without any additional information, 3 Mafia would find themselves there a decent chunk of the time - and I strongly believe there to be 4 or even 5 Mafia once you include traitors.

[Galzria]

Can somebody repost the full bid order list?

lol lazy. This is my list.

Excel doesn't import well. It reads (by column):
DraftPOS - Player - RMM Bid - Station Bid

1 Swan   44       
2 PPS   xx     3   (SWORD STICK)
3 Iguana   28     
4 Ash   xx     
5 Space   18     
6 E!           16     3
7 Dylan   14
8 Jake   45
9 Schadd   43
10 Galz   40     1 (DAGGER)
11 Silver   31
12 Chairs   19
13 Awac    13     3   (PENALTY)---unverified
14 WW   13
15 EFHW   10
16 Hadd    32
17 GK   11

[Haddock]

Request Vote Count

[iguanaiguana]

Haddock it's two traitors because Caitlin Frost, who was a traitor in their previous game, is the only role that can freeze people.

Ah yes I remember.  Thanks, that makes sense. 

Yeah we need to be moving towards a lynch now.  I'm happy with either Jake or gkrieg.  Or even Swan though not so much now, after all the PoEs etc.

I'll vote: gkrieg just to try to move things along.  Meanwhile can people also answer this question?

And I'm getting paranoid about my townread on iguana again - anyone else feeling that way?

I think he's said townie things, and I think he's been a little bit abrasive - but I feel he plays that way more as scum than town. Certainly I felt that way as his scum partner in 100 - especially seeing him as town in follow up games where he definitely felt... less so. That is to say - I find he's more talkative and tends to come off with townier sounding posts when he's scum, and less talkative and scummier when he's town.

I also think that IF Ash flips town, then almost certainly one of him/Datswan are scum - and right now I lean a stronger town on DatSwan than I do on Iguana. If Ash flips scum, then I would re-evaluate. But I do not believe that the top 6 were all town except for PPS as the SK/Survivor.

You are the only one who has ever described my scum games in this way. I lurk as scum because I don't know how to treat my partners. Pretty well documented. I crack really easily under pressure too.

You haven't gotten pressure this game, notably.

I'm getting it now. Who wants to see if I crack? 

[iguanaiguana]

I can say I have voting restrictions.

It would be pretty surprising to me if faust put a role with voting restrictions in the game.

I mean we had Schadd already, so not much of a stretch.

I would argue that it is more of a stretch because we already had one this game.

I actually think that pairs of things is the theme of this game.

[iguanaiguana]

vote: iguana

Wrong tree. Maybe DatSwan is your scum at the top of the draft - his game claim is actually scummy,  a little bit - mine super isn't.

Or maybe, just maybe, you are completely wrong.

[chairs]

Hmm.

Yeah, based on what I know about last Night and on today's analysis, I'll vote: Jake.

Yo Chairs - I guess I don't really expect to get an answer to this, but on the off chance you can answer without compromising yourself... is the above based soley on whatever night actions that "gave me a 5" or are there separate reasons that have you OK with Jake?

More about things in this thread tbh.