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[EFHW]

Your reasoning about 1 yellow 3 blues leaves out the pissibility that some were RCRP. That's also why the 3 scum in 6 is also not necessarily so.

[EFHW]

*possibility,  sorry. Now my autocorrect thinks pissability is a word.

[Haddock]

WW is right about the "at most 3 town in" thing unless my results were messed with n1.

(Which, if we assume that schadd is the same colour as his team, well then by my previous analysis  one of my results must have been messed with.)

Unless somehow we have 1 yellow, 2 blues, 1 white. No that's also impossible.  Or one yellow 2 whites 1 blue. Also impossible.

Yup either n1 or n2 has been tampered with.

Why not 1 yellow 3 blues?

It would mean either 2 Yellows and 3 Blues N1 (inconsistent) or 1 Yellow and 4 blues (not enough RCWPs).

If there were 1 yellow and 4 blues N1, then there were also 11 reds. 
Since my guess was 10 reds, 3 yellows, 2 blues and 1 white, then my worst possible guess would have had no correct yellow or blue guesses, meaning that exactly 3 of my red guesses were RCWP, 1 of my yellow guesses and both of my blue guesses similarly.  This is a total of 6 RCWPs, but there were 7.

If some of the colours were guessed completely correctly, that only reduces the number of RCWPs, it can't increase it.

[Haddock]

WW is right about the "at most 3 town in" thing unless my results were messed with n1.

(Which, if we assume that schadd is the same colour as his team, well then by my previous analysis  one of my results must have been messed with.)

Unless somehow we have 1 yellow, 2 blues, 1 white. No that's also impossible.  Or one yellow 2 whites 1 blue. Also impossible.

Yup either n1 or n2 has been tampered with.

Why not 1 yellow 3 blues?

It would mean either 2 Yellows and 3 Blues N1 (inconsistent) or 1 Yellow and 4 blues (not enough RCWPs).

If there were 1 yellow and 4 blues N1, then there were also 11 reds. 
Since my guess was 10 reds, 3 yellows, 2 blues and 1 white, then my worst possible guess would have had no correct yellow or blue guesses, meaning that exactly 3 of my red guesses were RCWP, 1 of my yellow guesses and both of my blue guesses similarly.  This is a total of 6 RCWPs, but there were 7.

If some of the colours were guessed completely correctly, that only reduces the number of RCWPs, it can't increase it.

No, this is wrong.  Dammit.  That whole analysis is wrong, the argument about RCWPs is not right.

[Haddock]

Correcting my above analysis:

So, not trying to match up players to colours, here are the possibilities for colours left in the game - where I will mention just the colours that are not red.   (This analysis all assumes that schadd's "colour" was the same as that of his team, which I don't know for sure but seems like the most likely thing - faust won't answer the question though.  I may do the analysis again with the opposite assumption tomorrow.)


1 Yellow, 1 Blue.  This seems very unlikely - it means that there was a scum team consisting of one main player plus one traitor, and it also means there were only 4 non-town players total.  Ruling this out. Actually impossible barring shenanigans - see below.  This remains impossible - genuinely not enough RCWPs on N1.

1 Yellow, 2 Blue.  This can only happen (I think) if Blue is the mafia team (with schadd on it) - and white represented PPS.  This is vaguely possible, but I think feels like too few scum? Actually impossible barring shenanigans - see below.   
This one is possible after all, but I still feel like it's too few scum.  If it's this one, I think it means that my N1 guess has precisely zero non-town colours (ie. other than red) which were completely correct.

1 Yellow, 3 Blue.  This would make Blue the mafia team again, and could be feasible. Actually this is impossible, barring redirection etc.  This would mean that during night 1, there were 3 Blues and 1 Yellow in the game.  Since I guessed 2 Blues and 3 Yellows, this means that there were 2 blues and 1 yellow which were capable of being "right colour wrong place" (henceforth "RCWP") and at most three reds with the same property, for at most 6 guesses of RCWP.   
This one is definitely possible.

2 Yellow.  Then yellow is scum with schadd Actually this is impossible barring redirection etc.  This would mean that during night 1, everyone was red except for 3 yellow people, which means at most 6 guesses were "correct colour in the wrong place".
This one is actually impossible.  Not enough RCWPs is a valid argument here.

2 Yellow, 1 White. Impossible.  Would have to mean that N1 we had either 3 Yellows and 1 White, which is obviously inconsistent with my N1 results, or 2 Yellows and 2 Whites, which would mean that we had at most 6 RCWP results.
This one is possible, but only if it was 2 Yellows and 2 Whites on N1, which implies schadd was part of a 2-person scumteam.

2 Yellows, 2 Whites.  Impossible.  Would mean that N1 we had either 3 Yellows and 2 Whites, which is inconsistent with N1 results, or 2 Yellows and 3 Whites, yielding at most 6 RCWP results.
This one is possible and would imply 2 Yellows and 3 Whites on N1, meaning schadd was white.  This is definitely conceivable.

All the 3 and 4 yellow options are impossible. 
I think this is still the case.

So, I guess:


5 Yellows (). Impossible.  Would mean 6 yellows N1 for a max of 6 RCWPs.
I think this is still impossible - less sure, there are too many options.  But it seems hugely unlikely from the gameplay point of view anyway.

Well.  That was a waste of time.  Conclusions:
Either something is messing with my results (OK let's face it this is likely - WAIT A MINUTE JUST OCCURED TO ME THAT ISN'T AWA CLAIMING TO DO SOMETHING LIKE THIS?)

or

schadd was a different colour to his team.  I'll do an analysis of the possibilities assuming that case - tomorrow.

So, to summarise realistic possibilities (remembering the possibility - haven't confirmed this yet - that Awaclus is being seen as a scum colour):

We currently have either:

1) 1 yellow and 2 blues, in which case I failed to pair any scum with their colour on N1.

2) 1 yellow 3 blues.  No conclusions to draw here if this is the case.

3) 2 yellows, 1 white.  means there were 2Y2W on N1, making schadd part of a 2-person scumteam.  Possible but unlikely?

4) 2 yellows, 2 whites.  Means schadd was white.  Also means (I think) that I failed to correctly pair any scum with their colour on N1.

[iguanaiguana]

This is the Smeagol/Gollum Role:

Welcome to RMM10, Jimmmmm. You are Smeagol, the Survivor. You used to be a Hobbit…maybe, but all that matters now if somehow, you are still alive. Really, it’s been such a very hard life, and you are happy to escape harm any way you can. Even if its with orcs, or ho..hob…nasty hobbitses! *gollum* *gollum* We are Gollum, the Serial Killer, yes we is, aren’t we precious…we hate the nasty orces and hobbitses, and we we kill them all and eat them up, my precious…

At the beginning of Day 1, you will be informed of which personality you hold. This will be determined randomly. You will remain either Smeagol or Gollum for the entirety of Day 1 and Night 1, then switch to the other on Day 2, and remain that “person” until the beginning of Day 3. Switching will continue until you win or die.

On nights when you are the Serial Killer, you may target a player to kill.

Smeagol, the Survivor, wins when any other faction meets their win condition and you are still alive. This must happen on a day or night when you are Smeagol.

Gollum, the Serial Killer, wins when you are the only player left alive.

Smeagol/Gollum literally alternates between SK faction and survivor faction each night.

So most likely if white is SK, blue and survivor, and yellow is mafia, and PPS were alive, then PPS would have been switching back and forth between being correct in the white box and correct in the blue box each night.


So PPS alone accounts for two of the colors in the mastermind game. Mafia accounts for another color. Town is the final color. Meaning that if Haddock is telling the truth, we shouldn't expect there to be any other factions. However, another survivor is very possible. Another serial killer seems pretty unlikely though - we've had only one kill each night and it's been a freezing kill at that.

[EFHW]

PPS was already dead N1 and isn't represented in the puzzle.

[iguanaiguana]

PPS was already dead N1 and isn't represented in the puzzle.

What I am saying is that his double alignmnt role fill up the alignment possibilities for the puzzle.

Red is town. One other color is mafia. A second color is survivor. A third color is serial killer. A fourth color is mafia.

PPS was never both at once. He would have been survivor one night, serial killer the next. So we know what each of the four color boxes correspond to. There can't be any other alignments now unless Haddock is lying.

[iguanaiguana]

Here is Space's role, pertinent info is bolded.

Flavour name: Insane Doctor
Role name: 3-Shot Necromancer
Alignment: Town

Abilities:

BWAHAHAHAHA!  They said you were crazy, but you’ve worked it out.  All you had to do was carry the one and replace Schrodinger’s Cat with Pavlov’s Dog.  Then, some magic and batteries (available at the local hardware store) was enough to bring the whole Rube Goldberg together.  Genius!  With your mad power, you are able to bring back the dead.

Each night, until you run out of shots, you may target one dead player.  Barring outside influence, the target will be revived in the morning and will survive until the end of that night (i.e. they will be able to use their night action, if they have one).  A zombie player may vote but its presence will not change the number of votes needed to lynch.  A zombie player cannot be voted upon.  Zombies retain their original alignment.  It will be announced that the zombie looks sickly and decomposed and will not likely survive for very long.

You will not gain access to the Dead Player QT when you die if you still have any shots remaining.  Instead, you will automatically consume all remaining shots and revive yourself. Note that the Dead Player QT will be locked for the day while a zombie (other than you) is raised.

For game mechanic purposes, your ability adds “1-shot Alive” to the dead player’s role as a regular action, which that player automatically uses.

Space is IC zombie and I THINK does not count as alive.... and at some point they will die. I don't know if Space has three days with us or one. It says they use all their own shots on themselves. I assume that is three shots - or maybe all three shots are used up and Space will only stay alive for one day regardless.

Space, do you know how long you have before you decompose?

[Witherweaver]

Well, there are at least three scum in

{EFHW, gkrieg, Jake, Dylan, IG, Silver}

and at least three scum in

{Ash, Awaclus, Gkrieg, Chairs, Jake, Galz, IG, Silver}

One of them has to be in both, because only two of the first set (EFHW, Dylan) are not in the second.

How do you get to this? I don't think we have enough information to be this specific.

I'm town, Haddock is town, e is town.  Haddock's first guess of red (town) was:

{EFHW, gkrieg, Jake, Dylan, IG, Silver, e, Haddock, WW}

There were six correct guesses.  Three of them are e, Haddock, me. There can only be three more, so no more than three of {EFHW, gkrieg, Jake, Dylan, IG, Silver} can be town.

Similarly for the second day,

[Witherweaver]

I don't think PPS had two alignments; I think he had one alignment that could change from Survivor to SK if certain conditions were met. So he'd only count as one at a time.

[Witherweaver]

PPS was already dead N1 and isn't represented in the puzzle.

It matters for the number of colors that are available. One or more could currently have 0 be correct.

[Haddock]

I don't think PPS had two alignments; I think he had one alignment that could change from Survivor to SK if certain conditions were met. So he'd only count as one at a time.

This isn't iguana's point.  His point is that he might be one colour one night and a different colour another night.  If so, then that's two of the "colour slots" used up, meaning there are only two other colours left, town and mafia.

PPS was already dead N1 and isn't represented in the puzzle.

What I am saying is that his double alignmnt role fill up the alignment possibilities for the puzzle.

Red is town. One other color is mafia. A second color is survivor. A third color is serial killer. A fourth color is mafia.

PPS was never both at once. He would have been survivor one night, serial killer the next. So we know what each of the four color boxes correspond to. There can't be any other alignments now unless Haddock is lying.

But we don't know this is the case, it's all up to how faust interprets things.  It might be that PPS counts as "between alignments" somehow and that this is represented by one colour.  (I have asked faust about this but I don't really expect an answer.)

Moreover, we don't know that there isn't ANOTHER SK or another survivor.  So knowing that there are no other alignments doesn't actually give us total knowledge about what's left in the setup.

(looking more closely, iguana has already essentially said all this.  Good times.)

But it should hopefully give us some very good PoE.


Note: if my analysis is correct and my results have not been tampered with, we know that there is more than just the mafia team left, meaning that another survivor/SK is guaranteed.  Survivor seems likelier than SK because of the lack of kills.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

I don't think PPS had two alignments; I think he had one alignment that could change from Survivor to SK if certain conditions were met. So he'd only count as one at a time.

But the other was still in the game. Wouldn’t it have to be in there then?

[Witherweaver]

I don't think PPS had two alignments; I think he had one alignment that could change from Survivor to SK if certain conditions were met. So he'd only count as one at a time.

But the other was still in the game. Wouldn’t it have to be in there then?

Yes, that's my point. Two colors would be taken for white and purple, with PPS satisfying one at a time.

[Haddock]

(Another survivor/SK is guaranteed, that is, if PPS did indeed count as different colours on different nights.  If he was somehow just one colour, then who knows what the remaining faction is.)

The more I think about it the more I think it's likely that iguana is right and PPS was different colours on different nights.

I don't think PPS had two alignments; I think he had one alignment that could change from Survivor to SK if certain conditions were met. So he'd only count as one at a time.

But the other was still in the game. Wouldn’t it have to be in there then?

Yes, this is iguana's point.  He's saying the PPS must have "occupied" two colours, leaving two colours for town and mafia.  (and then potential duplicates, ie. other survivors/SKs.)

[Witherweaver]

Right, I'm agreeing with Iguana

[EFHW]

I don't think PPS had two alignments; I think he had one alignment that could change from Survivor to SK if certain conditions were met. So he'd only count as one at a time.

I agree. We're lucky he died if there's a chance he would have changed color between guesses.

[EFHW]

Well, there are at least three scum in

{EFHW, gkrieg, Jake, Dylan, IG, Silver}

and at least three scum in

{Ash, Awaclus, Gkrieg, Chairs, Jake, Galz, IG, Silver}

One of them has to be in both, because only two of the first set (EFHW, Dylan) are not in the second.

How do you get to this? I don't think we have enough information to be this specific.

I'm town, Haddock is town, e is town.  Haddock's first guess of red (town) was:

{EFHW, gkrieg, Jake, Dylan, IG, Silver, e, Haddock, WW}

There were six correct guesses.  Three of them are e, Haddock, me. There can only be three more, so no more than three of {EFHW, gkrieg, Jake, Dylan, IG, Silver} can be town.

Similarly for the second day,

I get your reasoning for the first day.  On the second day, you were yellow, so there would only be two known correct answers, e and Haddock. Then you could say at most 5 town/at least 3 non-town (could have survivor) are in {ash, awa, chairs, Galzria, gkrieg, iguana, jake and silver}.  Which is what you said! I'm with you now.

[SpaceAnemone]

Space, do you know how long you have before you decompose?

I have three extra full days, but game events may still be able to mess with that.

[Witherweaver]

Jake and Gkrieg both seem like good lynches, based on my analysis.

Let's do

Vote: Jake

[gkrieg13]

Sorry, just catching up.  Will have to work out the implications of Haddock's role (really just make sure I agree with Witherweaver).

[Haddock]

Space, do you know how long you have before you decompose?

I have three extra full days, but game events may still be able to mess with that.

irl days or ingame days?  The latter seems nutso strong.

[Haddock]

From my perspective (not knowing whether WW is town):

No more than 4 of
{WW, EFHW, gkrieg, Jake, Dylan, IG, Silver} can be town - still making 3 of them non-town.  Which in the end doesn't seem to increase our odds all that much.

But I am townreading ig and silver.  So I reckon 3 out of {WW, EFHW, gkrieg, Jake, Dylan} are non-town.

Also at least 3 of
{Ash, Awaclus, Gkrieg, Chairs, Jake, Galz, IG, Silver} are non-town.
And I think ash, ig, silver, galz are town.  Awaclus is almost certainly one of the non-towns in that list since he's claimed miller, and hence is either scum or will be viewed as such by my power. 

So 2 scum in
{gkrieg, chairs, jake}.
Probably.

Both gkrieg and jake looking like great lynches.

I prefer

vote: Jake

[EFHW]

You two beat me to it. Vote: Jake