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[Haddock]

I don't follow this description.

This is the role PM from RMM4:

Pokemon name: Mew
Role name: Mastermind
Alignment: Companion

Moveset:
  Mew
Amnesia
       
Abilities:
Amnesia--Each night, you will PM the mods a list of all living players with a proposed set of alignments for each player.  Your guesses for alignments should correspond to the colors BLUE, RED, YELLOW, where RED is Companions.  You are not told what BLUE or YELLOW represent.  We will respond to your player/alignment pair list Mastermind style.  You will be told the number of correct guesses and the number alignment guesses which would have been correct if you had put them in the right position.

Win Condition: You win when all Pokemon not aligned with you have fainted.

I've never played Mastermind; what exactly does "correct if you had put them in the right position" mean?

This is the calculation, as I understand it:

Let C(colour) be the actual number of players who are a certain colour.
Let G(colour) be the number of times I have guessed that colour.

Let M(colour) be equal to min(C(colour), G(colour))

Let X be the number of players whose colour I have guessed 100% correctly.

The result I receive is of the form:
"Right colour in right place: X
Right colour in wrong place: M(red) + M(yellow) + M(blue) + M(white) - X"  (this will then be the total number of colours that I have correctly guessed to EXIST in the game, minus the ones that I've actually guessed entirely right.)

Haddock, can you post just results you have received  each night - the versions with no errors?

I thought I'd essentially done this, but sure.

N1 guess:

ash, Awaclus, chairs: Yellow
DatSwan, Galz, Blue
Space: White
Lalight/Teproc/EFHW, Haddock, gkrieg, schadd, e, Jake, Dylan, iguana, WW, silver: Red.

N1 response (after mod correction):
Right colour right place: 6
Right colour wrong place: 7




N2 guess:

EFHW, DatSwan, WW: Yellow
Dylan: Blue
ash, Haddock, Awaclus, gkrieg, chairs, e, Jake, Galz, iguana, silver: Red

N2 response:
Right colour right place: 7
Right colour wrong place: 5

Haddock, can you post just results you have received  each night - the versions with no errors?

Same.

Also, is e included and therefore one of the right colors in the right place?

Correct.  Also myself.

@Haddock,

Does your action have any target?

I do not know whether I am considered as having no target or as having targetted everyone, or what.  I will ask.

What about Space on N2? She's living dead, right? But Haddock would have thought she was just dead.

Space uses singular they as a pronoun. 

In answer to your question, I do not know.  I thought Space was dead and so I did not include them in my guess.  My role is definitely supposed to guess all living players, so I expect I would have "thrown an error" as it were if Space counted as living.

I didn't read Space's flip in any detail: "Insane Doctor" didn't sound like the sort of role that would have any reason to survive a lynch, and I didn't go back and look.


I really don't like Dylan's super-hedgy approach to my claim.  I also don't like his earlier attempt to paint people's temptation to lynch a lurker as scummy.  I certainly didn't look at the VLA thread, and I don't think that should be expected.  If you're VLA, it's your responsibility to make sure people in the game know that you are.  (That said, Dylan, sorry about your basement - that sounds incredibly sucky   . )


Result analysis upcoming.

[Haddock]

So, not trying to match up players to colours, here are the possibilities for colours left in the game - where I will mention just the colours that are not red.   (This analysis all assumes that schadd's "colour" was the same as that of his team, which I don't know for sure but seems like the most likely thing - faust won't answer the question though.  I may do the analysis again with the opposite assumption tomorrow.)


1 Yellow, 1 Blue.  This seems very unlikely - it means that there was a scum team consisting of one main player plus one traitor, and it also means there were only 4 non-town players total.  Ruling this out. Actually impossible barring shenanigans - see below.

1 Yellow, 2 Blue.  This can only happen (I think) if Blue is the mafia team (with schadd on it) - and white represented PPS.  This is vaguely possible, but I think feels like too few scum? Actually impossible barring shenanigans - see below.

1 Yellow, 3 Blue.  This would make Blue the mafia team again, and could be feasible. Actually this is impossible, barring redirection etc.  This would mean that during night 1, there were 3 Blues and 1 Yellow in the game.  Since I guessed 2 Blues and 3 Yellows, this means that there were 2 blues and 1 yellow which were capable of being "right colour wrong place" (henceforth "RCWP") and at most three reds with the same property, for at most 6 guesses of RCWP. 

2 Yellow.  Then yellow is scum with schadd Actually this is impossible barring redirection etc.  This would mean that during night 1, everyone was red except for 3 yellow people, which means at most 6 guesses were "correct colour in the wrong place".

2 Yellow, 1 White. Impossible.  Would have to mean that N1 we had either 3 Yellows and 1 White, which is obviously inconsistent with my N1 results, or 2 Yellows and 2 Whites, which would mean that we had at most 6 RCWP results.

2 Yellows, 2 Whites.  Impossible.  Would mean that N1 we had either 3 Yellows and 2 Whites, which is inconsistent with N1 results, or 2 Yellows and 3 Whites, yielding at most 6 RCWP results.

All the 3 and 4 yellow options are impossible.  So, I guess:

5 Yellows (). Impossible.  Would mean 6 yellows N1 for a max of 6 RCWPs.

Well.  That was a waste of time.  Conclusions:
Either something is messing with my results (OK let's face it this is likely - WAIT A MINUTE JUST OCCURED TO ME THAT ISN'T AWA CLAIMING TO DO SOMETHING LIKE THIS?)

or

schadd was a different colour to his team.  I'll do an analysis of the possibilities assuming that case - tomorrow.

[Haddock]

My reasoning for 1 Yellow, 3 Blues being impossible is flawed, but it is impossible nonetheless, for different reasons.

It would mean either 2 Yellows and 3 Blues N1 (inconsistent) or 1 Yellow and 4 blues (not enough RCWPs).

[Haddock]

Crap, yes, the goddamn miller thing.

Well that will help me improve my guesses.

The analysis is still fine though, just treating Awa as whatever colour the shirt makes him pretend to be - so all the impossible outcomes are still impossible.

So, um.  yeah.  Either major shenanigans or schadd was a different colour to his team (upside: we then know that there is now only one non-town faction).  More tomorrow.

[Witherweaver]

Haddock can you ask Faust how a Miller would affect your results? If you count as investigation, a Miller!Awaclus should count as scum, but it's not certain.

[Witherweaver]

I'm like very certain Schadd would not be a different color than his team.. each color is guaranteed to correspond to an alignment, right?  Schadd was just a Traitor; he was still 100% Mafia aligned. (I had that role in the RMM it was from.)

[Dylan32]

Gut reaction to Haddocks stuff is that he doesn't make this fakeclaim as scum on D3 before any other claims even if it is offered to him as one of his fake claims.

So pretty strong town on him now. Which is great, because that was not where I had him before.

Pretty different reactions to the timing of the claim I guess. What makes you think he would be more likely to hold onto the claim for later?

I was the one you stole that item from! I think the situation is a bit different.

You claimed that item and gave two fake results with it, Lylo and the day prior. And the item just gave one metric: scum on wagon. Also I knew you had the item so it was a believable fakeclaim to say you were using it.

Haddocks role is weaker, more complicated,  and it's still pretty early in the game which makes all his results harder to fake. I think that if he were scum and fakeclaiming those bogus results, he would be pretty nervous about a contradiction outing him at Lylo. He also would have to make up more bogus results every night and all of those would need to be consistent with flips. So maybe as third party he could pull that off. But as mafia who doesn't know if more third party are out there it's super risky I think.

Yeah I realize this is kind of different and way more complicated to pull off. That was just the association I made as I read it initially at around 2 in the morning.  And that's why my reaction to it may have seemed kind of hedgy. I can see the narrative for both alignments, and wanted to read Haddock entirely rather than basing a read on something I could go either way on.

And yeah sorry about how that comment about the VLA thread came out. The fact I was almost a lynch because of being absent while under a posted VLA bugged me a little, and I reacted more strongly than I think I normally would because I was tired. I think I need to impose a no-mafia-after-midnight rule for myself haha.  I do think I was an easy wagon for scum to try to hop on though, which is why I basically said FoS at those people. It is a small thing that I wouldn't use as a basis for a vote by itself, but maybe would use as a tiebreaker between 2 equally scummy people all else being equal.

PPE 2

[Witherweaver]

Okay, well, if I'm reading this right, from Night 1, at most three players in

{EFHW, gkrieg, Jake, Dylan, IG, Silver}

can be town,

so there are at least three scum in there? Silver is frozen so that narrows it down; IG has been pretty townie.  That leaves {EFHW, gkrieg, Jake, Dylan}. 

[Witherweaver]

Night 2 looks less informative for the town set, but there are at most 5 town in {Ash, Awaclus, Gkrieg, Chairs, Jake, Galz, IG, Silver}.

Well, Gkrieg, Jake overlap from the previous set, as well as Silver and IG.

[Dylan32]

Ok. I just read Haddock, and I'm pretty convinced he's town. His contributions, points, and defenses when accused, seemed to consistently come from a town mindset.

[Dylan32]

Night 2 looks less informative for the town set, but there are at most 5 town in {Ash, Awaclus, Gkrieg, Chairs, Jake, Galz, IG, Silver}.

Well, Gkrieg, Jake overlap from the previous set, as well as Silver and IG.

Are you saying that gkrieg, Jake, silver, and IG would be most likely to be scum based on overlapping in the sets?

Also, I'm not sure how much silver (or ash really) being frozen means they are town. If the freezing role was a traitor that didn't know who the rest of their team was, all it says it that the traitor thought they were town, and they could have been wrong.

[Dylan32]

Wait, schadd flipped traitor... Could there be 2 traitors, or would one of them being changed to normal scum be more likely?

[Witherweaver]

It's worth noting that there are 'alignments' that are the same but they are not on the same team. We could have another Survivor, which I would assume would have the same alignment as pre-turned PPS for purposes of coloring (i.e., their wincon is in the white/grey text). Maybe even another SK, though I'm not sure if that would count. I think there have been RMMs with multiple survivors, so it isn't that unlikely.

[Witherweaver]

Night 2 looks less informative for the town set, but there are at most 5 town in {Ash, Awaclus, Gkrieg, Chairs, Jake, Galz, IG, Silver}.

Well, Gkrieg, Jake overlap from the previous set, as well as Silver and IG.

Are you saying that gkrieg, Jake, silver, and IG would be most likely to be scum based on overlapping in the sets?

Also, I'm not sure how much silver (or ash really) being frozen means they are town. If the freezing role was a traitor that didn't know who the rest of their team was, all it says it that the traitor thought they were town, and they could have been wrong.

Frozen isn't guaranteed to be town, but we aren't lynching them today so it seems reasonable to lynch out of the rest.

[Witherweaver]

Well, there are at least three scum in

{EFHW, gkrieg, Jake, Dylan, IG, Silver}

and at least three scum in

{Ash, Awaclus, Gkrieg, Chairs, Jake, Galz, IG, Silver}

One of them has to be in both, because only two of the first set (EFHW, Dylan) are not in the second.

[Dylan32]

Night 2 looks less informative for the town set, but there are at most 5 town in {Ash, Awaclus, Gkrieg, Chairs, Jake, Galz, IG, Silver}.

Well, Gkrieg, Jake overlap from the previous set, as well as Silver and IG.

Are you saying that gkrieg, Jake, silver, and IG would be most likely to be scum based on overlapping in the sets?

Also, I'm not sure how much silver (or ash really) being frozen means they are town. If the freezing role was a traitor that didn't know who the rest of their team was, all it says it that the traitor thought they were town, and they could have been wrong.

Frozen isn't guaranteed to be town, but we aren't lynching them today so it seems reasonable to lynch out of the rest.

Makes sense. Is my first question what you meant though?

[Dylan32]

missed the fact you posted back to back. ignore that last question ww.

[EFHW]

Crap, yes, the goddamn miller thing.

Well that will help me improve my guesses.

The analysis is still fine though, just treating Awa as whatever colour the shirt makes him pretend to be - so all the impossible outcomes are still impossible.

So, um.  yeah.  Either major shenanigans or schadd was a different colour to his team (upside: we then know that there is now only one non-town faction).  More tomorrow.

I think we should be able to assume that the colors for your role match onto colors of flip.  Green=red. Schadd flipped red, the standard color for mafia, so I don't think he would be a different color from the others. PPS had two alignments, so I'd say he would be his own color, unless there have been other roles that worked the same way.  Anyway, PPS has been dead since end of Day 1, so he was never included in the puzzle.

We do think the freezer is a traitor, and we don't know if they were recruited,  so we can't assume that their targets were town.

I think the next guess should have 1 yellow and 4 blues. For there to be 2 traitors, we could decide to assume there has to be a two person scum team. I suppose that's not necessarily  true, though. I don't think Miller is relevant here, because it works on targeted investigations.  It also is impossible from the results so far, unless there is a 1 person main scum team. There is no way to have 5 blues.

[EFHW]

Well, there are at least three scum in

{EFHW, gkrieg, Jake, Dylan, IG, Silver}

and at least three scum in

{Ash, Awaclus, Gkrieg, Chairs, Jake, Galz, IG, Silver}

One of them has to be in both, because only two of the first set (EFHW, Dylan) are not in the second.

How do you get to this? I don't think we have enough information to be this specific.

[Haddock]

1 yellow and 4 blues (currently living) is inconsistent with my n2 results.

I'm considered to have targeted no-one.

I'm not sure I understand WWs argument. Sounds like more information than we can actually get. I'll have a look.

[Haddock]

WW is right about the "at most 3 town in" thing unless my results were messed with n1.

(Which, if we assume that schadd is the same colour as his team, well then by my previous analysis  one of my results must have been messed with.)

Unless somehow we have 1 yellow, 2 blues, 1 white. No that's also impossible.  Or one yellow 2 whites 1 blue. Also impossible.

Yup either n1 or n2 has been tampered with.

[Haddock]

WW is correct, that is, if you're willing to assume that he and I are both town.

[EFHW]

Yeah, I was just about to post that I mistakenly thought your second guess had 2 blues in it.

Being a single person scum team looking for 2 traitors is difficult enough that I would think it would part of the role, with powers to help find partners. Has this happened before?

How would your results be messed with? Redirection also requires targets.

[Haddock]

Yeah, I was just about to post that I mistakenly thought your second guess had 2 blues in it.

Being a single person scum team looking for 2 traitors is difficult enough that I would think it would part of the role, with powers to help find partners. Has this happened before?

How would your results be messed with? Redirection also requires targets.

I have no idea. But they must have been because otherwise my 2 results are inconsistent with one another.

I'll have to double check my analysis though.

[EFHW]

WW is right about the "at most 3 town in" thing unless my results were messed with n1.

(Which, if we assume that schadd is the same colour as his team, well then by my previous analysis  one of my results must have been messed with.)

Unless somehow we have 1 yellow, 2 blues, 1 white. No that's also impossible.  Or one yellow 2 whites 1 blue. Also impossible.

Yup either n1 or n2 has been tampered with.

Why not 1 yellow 3 blues?