Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Teproc]

I'm saying why did you go for Poisoner in the first place ?

I looked at who bid it and from where in the first game. It was won out of my position of 4 for scum by WW. I considered Gunsmith here, but I thought I had a decent chance at Poisoner this game based on bids last game and I would MUCH rather prevent scum from having it then get Gunsmith myself.

I generally consider that I'm a likely candidate (ha) to be NK'd, and thus taking a results receiving role is less to my liking.

What did you think scum would go for first ? It was almost guaranteed that some scum was above you right (since they get to coordinate), so what would scum have taken above Poisoner ?

[Galzria]

I am asking that, and what you describe does not result in "well then LL is lying". It results in "for LL to be telling the there needs to be only 5 unique numbers". To go from that to "then LL is lying" seems like quite the jump to me.

I'm asking this because if you're zscum, there is no jump: you know LL is lying because of Space's bid.

That's not the jump though - I WAS draft 4, and bid 42. The absolutely only likely scenario for that to be true is if there were 3 Unique Lost bids above me. As unlikely as that seemed, I had to accept it as truth (no real other ways for me to get to draft 4) - Given that, in order for LL to be 16/6, there could be AT MOST one, single, lonely Unique Non-Lost number bid. Given that so many of the Lost numbers came up Unique, that meant most people were bidding off-Lost. The chances that only a single one of those guesses were unique were extremely small to my mind.

[Teproc]

Hm. They're really not that small though. Three people on 23, three people on one of the Lost numbers, the rest all on low non-Lost numbers.

I don't know. I just would never have claimed in that situation, nor would I have been that doubtful of LL's claim. It seems like way unsufficient information to me, but ok. I guess it helps if you're a VT, since getting NKed is nice then.

Still don't get going for Poisoner as town #4 though.

[Galzria]

I'm saying why did you go for Poisoner in the first place ?

I looked at who bid it and from where in the first game. It was won out of my position of 4 for scum by WW. I considered Gunsmith here, but I thought I had a decent chance at Poisoner this game based on bids last game and I would MUCH rather prevent scum from having it then get Gunsmith myself.

I generally consider that I'm a likely candidate (ha) to be NK'd, and thus taking a results receiving role is less to my liking.

What did you think scum would go for first ? It was almost guaranteed that some scum was above you right (since they get to coordinate), so what would scum have taken above Poisoner ?

Day Vig would be up there - but yes, Poisoner would be a top target too. If scum only rolled draft 3, but not 1/2, I don't know that they would've taken Poisoner.

[Teproc]

Like

1. 8
2. 15
3. 23
4. 42
5. some random non-Lost number
6. 16
7. 16
8. 3
9. 3
10. 3
11. 5
12. 5
13. 5
14. 23
15. 23
16. 23
17. 23

It's not the likeliest scenario, but it's not the only one and it just doesn't seem like a stretch to me. But I guess I didn't expect people to bid stuff like 35 or whatever e's bid was.

PPE: Well, I disagree. As you'll see in my QT, at only one slot below you I just assumed Poisoner was definitely gone and definitely scum's first pick. But I guess that's only because I already had thought about Poisoner in the first iteration (bidding on it and then realizing it was way too strong to still be available at #9)... but you did too, didn't you ?

I guess it's pretty obvious to me that Poisoner was far and away the best thing for scum by a thousand miles (Dayvig is pretty strong, yes, but it's only one extra kill, which is almost guaranteed by Poisoner, but that has a lot of upside as we've seen this game).

[Teproc]

I even forgot about 4 as a lost number above. I mean really, it's just not unlikely at all.

[Teproc]

Wait no, the 23s at the end should be 4s. Whatever, still doesn't seem that outlandish.

[Galzria]

I'm saying why did you go for Poisoner in the first place ?

I looked at who bid it and from where in the first game. It was won out of my position of 4 for scum by WW. I considered Gunsmith here, but I thought I had a decent chance at Poisoner this game based on bids last game and I would MUCH rather prevent scum from having it then get Gunsmith myself.

I generally consider that I'm a likely candidate (ha) to be NK'd, and thus taking a results receiving role is less to my liking.

What did you think scum would go for first ? It was almost guaranteed that some scum was above you right (since they get to coordinate), so what would scum have taken above Poisoner ?

Day Vig would be up there - but yes, Poisoner would be a top target too. If scum only rolled draft 3, but not 1/2, I don't know that they would've taken Poisoner.

I mean, I guess what you're getting at is that you feel I should've been more suspect of iguana - and maybe I should've been. But my thought was that I knew that I, as town,  went for it with a high draft pick and that I, as town,  definitely would've taken it from draft #1, so it didn't seem impossible that iguana, as town did so also.

I feel like that's where WW was at D1 as well, and it looks like he bid Poisoner from Draft #2. I wasn't completely unsuspicious of Iguana - certainly the whole reason I went for it was to try and block scum from a power I knew they would want. But having the role itself or being bid 1 isn't strictly alignment indicative. If it was we would've lynched Iguana D1.

[Galzria]

Wait no, the 23s at the end should be 4s. Whatever, still doesn't seem that outlandish.

I guess we just disagree - I find it unlikely that amongst 10 players they didn't come up with a single other non lost unique guess.

[Galzria]

I guess what you're having trouble with, and it just doesn't seem to have bothered me is that: I looked at where Poisoner was bid and won last game (4), and thought I would have a decent chance from the same position this game, whereas you feel that position had no chance at winning it and thus, if made by town, is a wasted bid.

[Teproc]

Well, I still have to vote faust I think.

Among the things I haven't mentioned yet pulling me that way:

DatSwan investigating Galz N1. If Galz is scum, it means Swan investigating someone else and fakeclaimed a result on his partner for the slightest towncred, which... seems a bit much, frankly. I mean you're risking getting caught by a Tracker or a Watcher for very little gain.

faust's attitude D5/D6. He just seems defeated, and the only way that makes sense if he's scum. Part of it is surely that he doesn't have a lot of time to play because of IRL stuff, but mostly it's just that this situation is a depressing one to be as scum, whereas it's not at all depressing as town. Maybe I'm reading too much into it and it's just faust being unable to give the game his full attention but, it's a small factor.

Then there's my survival. I didn't really talk much about Galz on D5, but still, scum!Galz has to assume I'm more likely to vote him than O given how D4 (and the game in general) went. Now yes, there's WIFOM but... it's generally not worth WIFOMing at lylo in scum's kills. Overestiamting scum's willingness to WIFOM incidentally being how scum!Galz won this in M100.

With that said:

vote: faust

Sorry if I got it wrong, town. Trust me, you don't feel nearly as bad about it as I do, because I really, really don't want to see Galz hoodwinking us twice in a row (well, not really but you get it). But here we go.

So, Galz. Do you win ? Well, more importantly, do I lose ?

PPE: My point is more that I'm doubtful town!you makes that choice instead of a pro-town role you're much more likely to get. But obviously ont enough to change my mind.

[Teproc]

I guess what you're having trouble with, and it just doesn't seem to have bothered me is that: I looked at where Poisoner was bid and won last game (4), and thought I would have a decent chance from the same position this game, whereas you feel that position had no chance at winning it and thus, if made by town, is a wasted bid.

Yes.

[Galzria]

 I'm town

[Galzria]

I'm town

So I hope so! Lol

[Teproc]

Well, I'd be extremely surprised if RR is scum and bow down to his superior, incomprehensible scum play, so I'm fine with that.

[Teproc]

Also, this means O deserves all the praise in the world for directing us away from you on D4. It was pretty close.

[Galzria]

Well, I'd be extremely surprised if RR is scum and bow down to his superior, incomprehensible scum play, so I'm fine with that.

I know. But there's still a small bit of fear in me over it. There's individual pieces of his play where I think "that's so scum"... But the whole doesn't add up.

[Galzria]

Also, this means O deserves all the praise in the world for directing us away from you on D4. It was pretty close.

Hey, something we agree on!

[Teproc]

Assuming it is faust, we all deserve a nice pad on the back for lynching nothing but scum D2 and on.

[Teproc]

Or a pat. Whichever.

[Galzria]

Also, for the record:

I think the decision for town!Iguana to poison was in fact his own to make. I wouldn't, obviously, and wouldn't want him to - but I would at least hear him out had he decided to do so. Although he absolutely would've needed to tell us D2 and not lie about it.

I find the difference in attitude amongst players regarding Poisoner vs Vig interesting also. I brought it up D1 because I was genuinely surprised, and thought scum could be trying to muddy the waters - it seemed very clear to me that if you supported a Vig shooting you should support a Poisoner shooting. I'm apparently in the wrong on my beliefs of others beliefs though!

Still, I really didn't want to keep it going. I just felt that every time I tried to drop it you attacked me over it again - and as I was town and what you were suggesting I was implying was absolutely inaccurate - it was hard. Still, I do wish we hadn't gotten so bogged down in that. Sorry.

[Galzria]

Assuming it is faust, we all deserve a nice pad on the back for lynching nothing but scum D2 and on.

You had some interesting thoughts about what you believed I would do as scum throughout the game (well, more in the latter half), and most of the time I thought "umm... no." - but more that I don't feel your beliefs matched my MO - not that it was impossible.

Did you really think that after M100 where I was 0% accurate from a town perspective on lynches that I would flip to 100% accurate this game?

Did you really think D5 that I would come out, as scum, and make my lynch preference of DatSwan clear well prior to the Masons saying as such?

Did... Oh, I don't remember. There was SO much that I was just like... "but... but... no way that's scum me!"

[Teproc]

Well, I admittedly didn't remember you had a terrible voting record in M100. My reference for your scum game is still M2, which, yeah, is old. To me, scum!Galz is super townie. And yeah, I thought you would bus hard on D5, definitely. I think it was very obvious that Swan was the lynch, and I think faust only puished RR because he thought bussing Swan was the obvious play. And yeah, the added benefit of maybe winning, but mostly that. I could be entirely off though. I was obviously quite wrong about you basically all game, so.

The poisoner thing, it was you bringing it up again on D2 and insisting on it that I found scummy. I just couldn't see what the point of dfiscussing it before D3 was.

[Teproc]

For your reading (dis)pleasure:

The Masons QT[/b]
And [url=https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/5GuaF9ajx7j]my own[/b].

Featured: me completely blanking on Galz's claim in the Candidates QT, and thinking Masons was only daychat until late D2.

[Teproc]

Masons
Teproc