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[O]

I'm with Teproc on this. Datswan hasn't been the scummiest today but his actions yesterday require serious misplay as town and make relatively perfect sense as scum.


I don't think Datswan RR is an impossible pairing. I think RR has also played quite mediocre if he's town -- but that seems to be more expected, and its generally more expected of severe lurkers. I also think Datswan-Faust, Datswan-Eevee are both still eminently possible. Galz perhaps less so.

I don't agree on the e Roleblocker analysis. There's very little reason to assume that e's reads remain constant after a space!Scum flip.

The reality is if Datswan is town then we'd be infinitely better off if he did a reasonable wagon analysis and said "hm -- Qvist Galz Eevee doesn't make much sense and Qvist is super townie looking". If he hammered before e, we'd have 3 of <Qvist, O, Teproc, Person who hammered space at deadline> alive since e was poisoned, and be substantially better off.

None of that is wonderfully relevant though since I really do think the simple explanation here is the right one: Datswan wanted a timeout victory (OK, pseudo-victory).

[Swowl]

I'm with Teproc on this. Datswan hasn't been the scummiest today but his actions yesterday require serious misplay as town and make relatively perfect sense as scum.


I don't think Datswan RR is an impossible pairing. I think RR has also played quite mediocre if he's town -- but that seems to be more expected, and its generally more expected of severe lurkers. I also think Datswan-Faust, Datswan-Eevee are both still eminently possible. Galz perhaps less so.

I don't agree on the e Roleblocker analysis. There's very little reason to assume that e's reads remain constant after a space!Scum flip.

The reality is if Datswan is town then we'd be infinitely better off if he did a reasonable wagon analysis and said "hm -- Qvist Galz Eevee doesn't make much sense and Qvist is super townie looking". If he hammered before e, we'd have 3 of <Qvist, O, Teproc, Person who hammered space at deadline> alive since e was poisoned, and be substantially better off.

None of that is wonderfully relevant though since I really do think the simple explanation here is the right one: Datswan wanted a timeout victory (OK, pseudo-victory).

Nope. and it never happens because of E!.

[faust]

I don't agree on the e Roleblocker analysis. There's very little reason to assume that e's reads remain constant after a space!Scum flip.

He did think Space was scum before the flip, so I don't see things changing because of it. Anyway Swan could still be scum even in the face of that.

[faust]

I'm going to be around in the hours before the deadline and will vote then. I don't think I have time or energy to make another case for RR over DatSwan, I guess I just have to hope you know better.

[Teproc]

Well, sorry town if we're wrong.

vote: DatSwan

[Swowl]

Well, sorry town if we're wrong.

vote: DatSwan

Feel like you are mis-reading friend. Now "we", just "you"

[O]

vote: Datswan

[Teproc]

Do we 100% lose if we're wrong ? I guess we still get to lynch the poisoner if e blocked right (gonna go ahead and discount the possibility of DatSwan being poisoned)

7 alive, 2 scum
-1 mislynch + 1 NK
5 alive, 2 scum
Lynch poisoner, lose two townies
2 alive, 1 scum

I guess we do.

PPE: Well, O and I at least.

[Teproc]

And by "we do" I mean "we do lose if we're wrong".

[Swowl]

Do we 100% lose if we're wrong ? I guess we still get to lynch the poisoner if e blocked right (gonna go ahead and discount the possibility of DatSwan being poisoned)

7 alive, 2 scum
-1 mislynch + 1 NK
5 alive, 2 scum
Lynch poisoner, lose two townies
2 alive, 1 scum

I guess we do.

PPE: Well, O and I at least.

lol I am joking obviously and cmon that is the same thing.
Also there are only seven alive right now, not nine

[Teproc]

7 alive including 2 scum is how that's supposed to read.

How is it the same thing ? I don't get it.

[Swowl]

Do we 100% lose if we're wrong ? I guess we still get to lynch the poisoner if e blocked right (gonna go ahead and discount the possibility of DatSwan being poisoned)

7 alive, 2 scum
-1 mislynch + 1 NK
5 alive, 2 scum
Lynch poisoner, lose two townies
2 alive, 1 scum

I guess we do.

PPE: Well, O and I at least.

lol I am joking obviously and cmon that is the same thing.
Also there are only seven alive right now, not nine

Re read it nvm, see where you were going. Issue is you are assuming that tonight poisoner dies. Otherwise when 5 alive with 2 skum, even if you lynch poisoner, thats 3-1, one NK, thats 2-1, then someone wakes up dead, thats 1-1

[Swowl]

7 alive including 2 scum is how that's supposed to read.

How is it the same thing ? I don't get it.

This is to say "you and O" = "you".

[Teproc]

Yes that's what I'm saying, the "I guess we do" was unclear. But yes, we lose if we're wrong about you.

PPE: Right, that crazy language where "you" can mean one or several persons. Tssk.

[Teproc]

The fact that you're relatively chipper about it makes me hopeful about either
a) our chances here
b) your chances of being a very pleasant mafia player in the long term. Taking a mislynch for the loss is never pleasant (on either side, but especially on the mislynchee's side).

[Swowl]

by the way just in case you are somehow right  and I am poisoned or something and the game continues tomorrow somehow...
one of you should unvote me temporarily to force reads and votes because as soon as they are both online at the same time right now its day end.

[Robz888]

If you have a complaint, make sure to write it on a piece of paper and insert it into the pneumatic tube at the bottom of the Pearl station. We read all your complaints and take them very seriously. Namaste.

Vote Count 5.3

DatSwan (3): RoadRunner7671, Teproc, O
RoadRunner7671 (1): DatSwan

Not Voting (5): Galzria, faust, Eevee

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch. Day 5 ends on October 19th at 4 PM.

[Swowl]

The fact that you're relatively chipper about it makes me hopeful about either
a) our chances here
b) your chances of being a very pleasant mafia player in the long term. Taking a mislynch for the loss is never pleasant (on either side, but especially on the mislynchee's side).

well I am gonna go with b), but I get your point.
Also disregard previous idea... I just realized one of them is already on me.

[Teproc]

by the way just in case you are somehow right  and I am poisoned or something and the game continues tomorrow somehow...
one of you should unvote me temporarily to force reads and votes because as soon as they are both online at the same time right now its day end.

Who's "they" btw ?

There's been more than enough time for rereads and opinions.

[Swowl]

by the way just in case you are somehow right  and I am poisoned or something and the game continues tomorrow somehow...
one of you should unvote me temporarily to force reads and votes because as soon as they are both online at the same time right now its day end.

Who's "they" btw ?

There's been more than enough time for rereads and opinions.

I have kind of already written this down several times
But summary - I believe it is probably RR and Galz. Used to think RR and Eevee, but now that just seems paranoid.

[Teproc]

Aside from faust, others are also fine with lynching you (you're first on Galz's list and Eevee is on RR or Swan) so I don't think waiting would change anything.

PPE : I know, sorry, I wasn't sure which of Eevee/Galz it was.

[Teproc]

I'll consider unvoting if someone posts and becomes IC-fied by not hammering. That could be relevant mabe.

[Swowl]

by the way just in case you are somehow right  and I am poisoned or something and the game continues tomorrow somehow...
one of you should unvote me temporarily to force reads and votes because as soon as they are both online at the same time right now its day end.

Who's "they" btw ?

There's been more than enough time for rereads and opinions.

I have kind of already written this down several times
But summary - I believe it is probably RR and Galz. Used to think RR and Eevee, but now that just seems paranoid.

Closely followed, removing RR by Faust!Galz.

PPE

[Swowl]

Aside from faust, others are also fine with lynching you (you're first on Galz's list and Eevee is on RR or Swan) so I don't think waiting would change anything.

PPE : I know, sorry, I wasn't sure which of Eevee/Galz it was.

ha. Not trying to change anything. Been figuring this was the end for the last 9 days. Just trying to make sure the most info is gained out of the situation.

[Swowl]

Actually guess that doesn't matter.
Re running the math and yeah it makes sense:
5-2
Swan mis lynch but also poisoned = 4-2
NK = 3-2
No Poison death = D6 start 3-2
Lynch Poisoner = 3-1
NK = 2-1
But, POS still got a shot off night 5 and as they won't poison themselves it is all irrelevant because Day 7 starts 1-1.