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[Robz888]

Vote Count 8.4

sudgy (1): Galzria

Not Voting (4): SpaceAnemone, Dylan32, O, sudgy

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch. Day 8 ends Tuesday, July 11, at 11:00 AM Forum Time.

[Dylan32]

Re Space: I am out of college (as of this past spring), so I'm older than you are giving me credit.

Let's refactor my big chunk of reasoning from yesterday that the rest of you don't seem to be commenting on, in the hope that someone else out there can help flesh it out a bit.

First up, let's examine the case for scum!sudgy.

Possibility 1: He guessed the right game and ended up at sport #2. He claims he joined a little too late for that to be the case. Maybe he'd have seen it alluded to in later games, though, especially if it's the kind of thing several others have picked as their favourite game. Of all the players, he seems the most likely out of all of us to be the #2 person, because O left too early (and the "he was almost around at the right time" argument doesn't work backwards in time!), Galz really seems to have picked slot 11 (which would be totally bizarre as a draft-order-2 choice), and Dylan and I joined way too late. If this is the case, it seems exceedingly likely that one of the other scums (for instance ash) had the draft position he's claimed now, and bid on slot 6 as he claimed.

Possibility 2: He really was at draft position 7, but can't be just a goon because if sudgy is scum Galz is lying, so must have bid on slot 3 (roleblocker) or slot 8 (strongman). The only way it could have been safe to claim that he went for UB is if he knew another scum placed above him actually did go for that slot after Jimmmmm in the ordering, which is only possible if e lied about his draft position and that position was actually occupied by scum. So I don't think a scum!sudgy at draft position 7 can have done anything other than hazard a guess at slot 6 being safe on the grounds that he knows someone took something from it and hopes it was someone above him in the precedence order. Oh, and it wasn't even just slot 6, it was the UB role in particular. If one of the people in the "random" slots (11-13) had seen UB in their options, that would have rumbled sudgy on the spot, so I think that's just too big a risk. (And note that that risk isn't present for someone like Dylan who only had to claim a slot and not a particular role).

Possibility 3: He was at a lower draft position than he claimed, and one of the scum goons actually had the draft place and slot bid he claimed. That would make a certain amount of sense if someone like ash had actually been at position 7, and bid on bus driver from the slot 6. Though why do ash (or Calamitas or whoever) and sudgy then swap around the claims and push the holder of a good PR higher up the list? The slot 6 claim would have worked just as well at a lower slot.

The problem with all of these scenarios is that one of two things has to have happened:
1) Scum took their second- or third-highest-drafted player and had them bid on UB or something else in slot 6. This is something that has to be explained even if we think sudgy was at draft order 2 and merely claiming Calamitas's spot and bid, because why would Calamitas have made that bid?
2) Sudgy made a hopelessly risky fake-claim, butting much more info out there than he would have needed to at that stage in the claiming exercise. Given that we know he has to be holding the RB or strongman, he had no guarantee that the PR he actually claimed hadn't ended up in one of slots 11-13 to make him instantly counterclaimable.

... so anyone wanting to encourage us to vote sudgy needs to have an explanation for this stuff. I mean, it's also entirely possible that sudgy isn't playing as we'd expect, and did just take what might look like an ill-judged gamble with the claim that's now actually paying off, but if we believe that's the best explanation we should be willing to talk about it..

You can't assume that scum was able to plan out their claims in such a way as to make it impossible to get caught. There were enough people alive that I don't think it would have been possible for them to completely cover themselves without at least some risk of getting caught. Of course they would minimize the risk, but I would imagine a claim that had a little bit of risk but good odds of working out are the more likely for scum that the rock solid claims.

(For all my posts from here on out, "#x" means draft position x, and I will specify "slot y")

Possibility 1: All scum!PR!sudgy would need to know was that scum had #7. We already knew there were masons in the game, so a reasonable gamble is that it was targeted pretty early, and likely by someone in the top half dozen or so. Remember also Calamitas died without claiming a #, and so sudgy drops to #7 safely, then educated gamble on slot 6.

Possibility 2: Educated guess since a mason had flip. Not much else was known at that point. Only Hammer Hero, Hider, and Mason were known at that time.

Possibility 3: I agree this just isn't likely. You could do it to try to confuse town or something, but you would think they would be trying to move the PRs down, because VT up top was likely to draw immediate suspicion to some extent.

Problem 1: I think the bus driver would have been worth it for scum if they had 3 people in the top 7 slots. Strongman/RB, Godfatherer, then 1 shot bus driver for a pinch would be a solid group of powers for scum (with the small chance of more from the lower guys).

Problem 2: Galz already said this basically, but all he had to do was worry about the slot. You bid on the slot, not the role. So the UB's presence in slots 11-13 means nothing to him since he was blocked for slot 6.

[Dylan32]

Re: Space's thoughts on O

Does anyone want to go through a few recent games and see how often Awaclus's tunnels are accurate? I know there was one recently where town lost but he was exactly right, but no one would listen to him because he was doing basically the same thing he was doing here.

[sudgy]

I know you can't take my word for it, but take my word for it, I would hate trying something with any risk in it as scum if I had an alternative.  To me, the only scum narrative would be me being exactly what I claimed (which at this point is impossible) or knowing that it wouldn't work because one of my scumbuddies had that happen.

[Dylan32]

I know you can't take my word for it, but take my word for it, I would hate trying something with any risk in it as scum if I had an alternative.  To me, the only scum narrative would be me being exactly what I claimed (which at this point is impossible) or knowing that it wouldn't work because one of my scumbuddies had that happen.

I don't see any reason to doubt that if you had an alternative with no risk you would take it. However, given your spot towards the top of both the draft order and the mass claim order, I just don't think you had that alternative and that you did the best you could with your claim.

This all being said, the biggest thing against you is NOT the draft or anything like that.  It is your actions and voting history.  About all we can say about anything through however much draft analyzing we want to do is that no one here is trapped by their claim, almost everyone had some amount of risk (if assuming they are scum) but almost everyone (as scum) would have had at least some reason to think their claim would be safe.  I know I've been doing quite a bit of it, but I really don't think speculation on the draft is helping us very much where we should be looking at interactions and stuff. That would likely be more insightful at this point.

[SpaceAnemone]

Time to give scum!O the same treatment as scum!sudgy and scum!Dylan.

Possibility 1: He guessed the right game and ended up at sport #2. It seems a bit unlikely if he'd stopped playing before the game happened, and it looks like he wasn't involved between M13 and M100, and barely existed elsewhere on f.ds at all in those intervening years either.

Possibility 2: He really was at draft position 21. This makes total sense for someone who doesn't know any of the newer players, and it's also entirely possible both with his claim (because Galz had already said he was draft position 20 and slot 11 by then). It's also looking entirely possible for him to have picked up either roleblocker or strongman from draft order 21, because we have no evidence of any townies having gone for slot 3 or slot 8. The only thing that makes this marginally less likely is the fact that the lowest-placed scum would be bidding for a decent power role (i.e. if scum!O was bidding for RB, what were the higher-placed scums bidding for?). Maybe the higher-placed scums tried for roles that might be more in keeping with hiding out as town, though, and got beaten to the spots? I think this option isn't actually too unlikely.

Possibility 3: O was at some other position in the draft order, and traded down to Calamitas's vacant spot, or to the spot held by another scum goon. Totally possible, and he doesn't even have to have claimed to have bid for the same slot as that scum for this to have been possible, because Galz had claimed draft order and slot a long time before O claimed his slot. This is another totally possible option.

Possibility 4: O was at some other position in the draft order, and just took advantage of the fact that Awaclus left him till last in the claiming order to claim any old unclaimed place. The only people who claimed a slot after O were Awaclus, e and RR, in that order, and we already know that e was happy to try fake-claiming in that position. Sadly, because of Awaclus's not-really-explained tunnel, we never had the chance to catch him out in any part of the claiming exercise.

Have I missed any scenarios? Several of these seem quite a lot more possible that any of the Dylan/sudgy breakdown elements, so overall, I think O looks more likely to be scum if we take this kind of analysis in isolation. (Though I'm not suggesting we should ignore all the other kinds of evidence... I'm just compiling the stuff I'm better at thinking my way through, at least when I'm awake!).

[O]

@space

You don't seem to give me any credit for the numerous, numerous softclaims about my draft position. They started effectively day one and continued all the way until the claim.

Why would I come to the conclusion of voting for LaLight day one because of PR likelihood?
Why would I back up Galzria's claim instantly?

And for the "scumslip", it's certainly not a townslip either but yes I did switch up LaLights flip and the roles I intended to say. This is mostly because 1. I was looking back at the slot claims and what scum got before making the post and 2. I actually keep forgetting what Godfather does and having to look back at it..

[SpaceAnemone]

You don't seem to give me any credit for the numerous, numerous softclaims about my draft position. They started effectively day one and continued all the way until the claim.

Of course not -- I'm summarising possible cases for how we've ended up in this claiming situation based purely on what could have happened in the drafting and claiming process because whatever situation we think looks likely based on behaviour, it's also got to stack up with opportunity and risk. I already did a full re-read of your early game a week or so ago (like before we lynched RR) and said you didn't seem that scummy. But it would be remiss of me not to acknowledge that in terms of the claims at least, you appear to be the player with the safest opportunity to be hiding a scum PR.

If we go on wagon analysis, there's plenty that points to one of Dylan and sudgy being the missing scum. If we go on play, sudgy looks lurkier than Dylan, but their voting patterns in D1 and D2 are so similar it's hard to see what the differentiators should be without having something else to go on. What I'd really like town to be doing right now is contributing lots of different orthogonal analyses to build on each other's reads and scum-likelihood assertions. I can tell you right now that I'm really not good at the tone and language subtleties sorts of reads, so if someone else can read between all the lines in terms of who's feeling the pressure and acting like they're under siege at various points in the game, that would be especially useful.

[SpaceAnemone]

Re Space: I am out of college (as of this past spring), so I'm older than you are giving me credit.

Sorry! Absolutely didn't mean to cause any offence here! I'm old enough that I'd count being young as a bonus, not something to give credit for growing out of ;-) I probably got mixed up if you'd mentioned college/school at some point, and assumed you were referring to high school because words and terms for higher education are used differently here in the UK.

[sudgy]

I just realized, I've been giving Galzria a pass until now, but at this point, he's either scum or a useless town PR.  Maybe we should lynch him.

[Dylan32]

Re Space: I am out of college (as of this past spring), so I'm older than you are giving me credit.

Sorry! Absolutely didn't mean to cause any offence here! I'm old enough that I'd count being young as a bonus, not something to give credit for growing out of ;-) I probably got mixed up if you'd mentioned college/school at some point, and assumed you were referring to high school because words and terms for higher education are used differently here in the UK.

Lol there was no offence taken. I suspected it was that difference in terms that was at fault right away.

[Dylan32]

I just realized, I've been giving Galzria a pass until now, but at this point, he's either scum or a useless town PR.  Maybe we should lynch him.

The problem is that we know at most one of Galz and O can be lying, and if Galz was lying and didn't take slot 11, then O would be lying (or a dead scum PR actually took 11). Galz could have taken a scum PR from slot 11 still, but it would have to be the roleblocker, because faust's N1 vig shot was blocked.

[sudgy]

I just realized, I've been giving Galzria a pass until now, but at this point, he's either scum or a useless town PR.  Maybe we should lynch him.

The problem is that we know at most one of Galz and O can be lying, and if Galz was lying and didn't take slot 11, then O would be lying (or a dead scum PR actually took 11). Galz could have taken a scum PR from slot 11 still, but it would have to be the roleblocker, because faust's N1 vig shot was blocked.

He could still be jailkeeper and have done everything he's claimed to have, and he could still be scum.  I'm just saying that I for some stupid reason was giving him a pass based on his PR.

[sudgy]

I just realized, I've been giving Galzria a pass until now, but at this point, he's either scum or a useless town PR.  Maybe we should lynch him.

The problem is that we know at most one of Galz and O can be lying, and if Galz was lying and didn't take slot 11, then O would be lying (or a dead scum PR actually took 11). Galz could have taken a scum PR from slot 11 still, but it would have to be the roleblocker, because faust's N1 vig shot was blocked.

He could still be jailkeeper and have done everything he's claimed to have, and he could still be scum.  I'm just saying that I for some stupid reason was giving him a pass based on his PR.

That first sentence doesn't read like I meant for it to.  I'm saying that he could still be scum and jailkeeper at the same time.

[Dylan32]

I just realized, I've been giving Galzria a pass until now, but at this point, he's either scum or a useless town PR.  Maybe we should lynch him.

The problem is that we know at most one of Galz and O can be lying, and if Galz was lying and didn't take slot 11, then O would be lying (or a dead scum PR actually took 11). Galz could have taken a scum PR from slot 11 still, but it would have to be the roleblocker, because faust's N1 vig shot was blocked.

Well, reading the setup paragraph, and JK could have been available to scum in the random slots also. Copy pasted from setup: "Mafia would not receive Innocent Child, Masonic Lover, or any Convert Serial Killer. (Everything else is on the table.)" So in theory, there could be a scum JK....

I still don't think Galz is best for today at all. And bringing that up seems like something of an attempt at misdirection.

PPE 2

[sudgy]

Would Galzria really get #20?  Some of the things picked were on the older side, so I feel like Galzria wouldn't have done that bad.

What do people think of claiming our picks for town and mafia?  Maybe we could find someone who couldn't possibly be so low/high?

[Dylan32]

Would Galzria really get #20?  Some of the things picked were on the older side, so I feel like Galzria wouldn't have done that bad.

What do people think of claiming our picks for town and mafia?  Maybe we could find someone who couldn't possibly be so low/high?

Really, we probably should have done something similar a lot earlier so we had more accurate results.

Sudgy, you and I are most similar up top and we are both online now. If one of us posts before or after the other, (from a neutral perspective) there is a chance that the 2nd person could manipulate their answers to be more similar to the other if they are scum and know they need to be close. How about we type in our names and post them at an agreed upon time. O and Galz should do the same since they are right next to each other.

[Dylan32]

Robz, would us putting what we gave for our answers (not in an actual quote block) from our QT here in the thread be a rules violation as long as nothing you said is used?

[Robz888]

Robz, would us putting what we gave for our answers (not in an actual quote block) from our QT here in the thread be a rules violation as long as nothing you said is used?

You can list your answers as long as you don't quote anything.

[Robz888]

It will not be confirmed that those were your actual answers, of course.

[O]

I can tell you right now that I'm really not good at the tone and language subtleties sorts of reads, so if someone else can read between all the lines in terms of who's feeling the pressure and acting like they're under siege at various points in the game, that would be especially useful.

despite not adapting a computer based persona I tend to think tonal based arguments and scumslips are mostly crap and shouldn't be considered seriously when considering arguments from other people. I do think personal reads are valuable though since they're unqiuely town-provided info.


Wagon analysis points heavily to Sudgy. Likely draft role analysis points away from me and Galz, mostly.

@Dylan we missed the boat entirely for answer based claiming to be honest. 5/22 people just isn't useful, and me and Galz are non-representative voters of most people. But I did suggest early that I mostly looked for mods/frequent posters and put their names down arbitrarily, and that I got draft slot 22 off of such a strategy.

[O]

quotes suck

[sudgy]

Would Galzria really get #20?  Some of the things picked were on the older side, so I feel like Galzria wouldn't have done that bad.

What do people think of claiming our picks for town and mafia?  Maybe we could find someone who couldn't possibly be so low/high?

Really, we probably should have done something similar a lot earlier so we had more accurate results.

Sudgy, you and I are most similar up top and we are both online now. If one of us posts before or after the other, (from a neutral perspective) there is a chance that the 2nd person could manipulate their answers to be more similar to the other if they are scum and know they need to be close. How about we type in our names and post them at an agreed upon time. O and Galz should do the same since they are right next to each other.

Sounds good, but now I've been away for a bit.  Are you still there?

Actually, I feel like it would be better for the people at worse draft positions to go first.  I'm willing to go first, but once the better drafts go first the other could know better how to fake it.  I feel like the best way to do it would be for all of us to do it at the same time, but that doesn't sound feasible.  I guess I'll be fine doing whatever we can, whenever we can.

[Dylan32]

Would Galzria really get #20?  Some of the things picked were on the older side, so I feel like Galzria wouldn't have done that bad.

What do people think of claiming our picks for town and mafia?  Maybe we could find someone who couldn't possibly be so low/high?

Really, we probably should have done something similar a lot earlier so we had more accurate results.

Sudgy, you and I are most similar up top and we are both online now. If one of us posts before or after the other, (from a neutral perspective) there is a chance that the 2nd person could manipulate their answers to be more similar to the other if they are scum and know they need to be close. How about we type in our names and post them at an agreed upon time. O and Galz should do the same since they are right next to each other.

Sounds good, but now I've been away for a bit.  Are you still there?

Actually, I feel like it would be better for the people at worse draft positions to go first.  I'm willing to go first, but once the better drafts go first the other could know better how to fake it.  I feel like the best way to do it would be for all of us to do it at the same time, but that doesn't sound feasible.  I guess I'll be fine doing whatever we can, whenever we can.

The ideal is all simultaneous, but I highly doubt that happens

[Dylan32]

I don't think it really matters too much. Maybe it would be slightly better if the lower people went first, but since you and I seem to be the two that people are wanting to go for, I think that's as good a reason as any for us to go first.