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Author Topic: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- GAME OVER  (Read 423508 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3475 on: June 07, 2017, 07:39:39 pm »

Okay, so my evening's deliberation concludes that ash is the better person to vote for, but that I also don't want to vote for him because of the risk of a quickhammer messing up the sharing of info for the day.

Guess I'll vote: iguana for the time being after all, for the obvious reason.
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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3476 on: June 07, 2017, 07:41:01 pm »

So Faust's questionable decided to not shoot ashersky is validated by Galzria's questionable decision to jailkeep ashersky...
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Dylan32

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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3477 on: June 07, 2017, 07:57:30 pm »

Re: galz's long post/claim.

In the interest of continuing to point out potential gambits, this does open a slight possibility of scum Galz/Ash gambit. Galz has perfectly convenient excuse and narrative for jailing Ash (and thereby protecting him from the townvig!faust) and allowing scum to go ahead and kill mcmc.
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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3478 on: June 07, 2017, 08:42:53 pm »

I believe I'll have about an hour to spare right now and since Ash has been on and didn't claim his results I'm not going to stall things any longer:

As Jake is aware, and is probably obvious to most people paying attention at this point:

I jailed Ashersky last night

"OMG WHY DIDN'T YOU PROTECT MCMC??!??!??"

Reason #1: Strongman
If scum has this role (and I believe now that it is likely (I'll circle back to this), then jailing mcmc was a waste of a night action. I simply couldn't protect him, so I went with the next best option in my mind - jailing Ashersky again. Had his claim yesterday not gone the way it did, maybe I would've taken somebody else - but as it was I wanted to limit any damage scum!Ash could do.

I was incredibly nervous of crossing night actions with Faust, who I believe is in fact a Vig and - at the time - felt above average confidence was town (PPS has me reconsidering).

Reason #2: No Strongman/Roleblocker
If scum didn't have a way to circumvent my protection then I figured the odds of them wasting a shot on a protected mcmc to be less than 50%. Obviously it was a great opportunity for them - but my "obvious" play here would be to protect mcmc. As such, I thought there would be a decent chance that I would die last night - since if they still couldn't kill mcmc then I had to go.

I'm still alive. Mcmc is dead. SK didn't take the JK Slot and JK wasn't chosen either. If my slot was taken, it was taken by scum and they have Strongman. It's either that or nobody took my slot. Given the results from last night, I'm inclined to believe the former.

Further, thinking on NK's:

N1 - Faust is blocked, 2.7 kills Cuzz, Mafia kills gkrieg
N2 - Faust kills Cuzz, Mafia kills Eevee, 2.7 kills...? (I'm guessing he shot Ash who was jailed)
N3 - Faust shoots PPS, Mafia Kill mcmc, TWM dies hiding (most likely Space/Iguana, maybe mcmc, maybe someone else entirely).

The kills each night add up to what we know, without some convoluted reason for why there are more/less than there should be.

I'll happily debate anybody that believes I should've jailed mcmc here, but it was my choice and I still believe that I made the correct one.
UGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I tracked ash and got "No Result". Can you PLEASE stop jailing my tracking targets. Also just gonna say that a Gal, Asher team looks likely here to me.

Yes Dylan that's what i'm thinking is happening.
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Dylan32

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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3479 on: June 07, 2017, 09:43:27 pm »

On the bright side, this might be the first time I've ever been able to confidently say I believe Jake is town haha.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3480 on: June 08, 2017, 01:30:22 am »

Confirming no result from my investigation last night.
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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3481 on: June 08, 2017, 01:59:03 am »

Confirming no result from my investigation last night.

may you please tell how in the world 3 deaths occurred?
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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3482 on: June 08, 2017, 01:59:43 am »

also both Space and igu may be scum which would make sense given that Space doesn't like to bus and didn't vote for igu on the first place
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faust

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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3483 on: June 08, 2017, 02:12:44 am »

For the people that are firmly on the DIE ASH DIE wagon, would you be reacting the same way that you would have if he had revealed that stuff yesterday during the claim when we all hoped he would without making the game wait?
Not quite as much, but it's still a huge red flag that his supposed "evidence" on me does not make any sense.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3484 on: June 08, 2017, 02:16:02 am »

Confirming no result from my investigation last night.
So how exactly was that information worth holding back? And why do you post, but don't answer my questions?
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3485 on: June 08, 2017, 02:47:09 am »

Confirming no result from my investigation last night.
So how exactly was that information worth holding back? And why do you post, but don't answer my questions?

I'm fairly certain I did answer your questions.

As for holding it back, if Galz claimed to jail someone else, that would give me more information.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3486 on: June 08, 2017, 03:05:25 am »

Look, it appears that for some reason folks may be leaning toward faust being terrible town here, which I just don't understand.  Obviously, I'm biased since I know my own alignment and role.  Faust is als a biased voice.

Here are facts that are indisputable from a neutral, unbiased perspective:

1.  Claimed information about ashersky points to him being town, while claimed information about faust points to him being scum.  I claimed Role Cop, got results that point the finger at a player very strongly, and have been claimed to have been jailed two nights in which deaths have occurred, rendering me ineligible to have made kills.  All of those things are towny things.  Faust claimed to have killed two town members on purpose, including the claimed Sheeper, and has a player with a guilty result on him.  Those are scummy things.

2.  Faust's play throughout the game has pointed toward him being scum.  There's the claiming to kill town on purpose.  There's the false sense of danger and fear with which he opened Day 3.  This is a big point: go read his opening, he makes it sound like town is in dire danger of losing.  If I'm lying and he's telling the truth, then he ABSOLUTELY KNOWS that there is no danger at all because there can only be one kill per night, so there's no rush.  And yet he acts like we're at MYLO.

2b.  Compare that to what the actual possibilities are.  If I'm lying, there's no imminent danger to town at all, and faust is riling people up on purpose.  If I'm lying, faust is a named VT now, and he has no reason to need to survive.  So Faust's actions point to something hidden, because if I'm lying, there's no reasons for his attitude, behavior, posts, or fears.

3.  ashersky's actions make little sense as scum.  As mentioned, if I'm lying, I'm doing this to...lynch a scummy VT?  At the cost of my own lynch?  The scummy players who are trying to push this narrative are ignoring the gigantic elephants in the room.  There are TWO claimed PRs who are much more important to remove from the game for scum, and yet I decide to go after the scummy player who has no power at all.  Both the Tracker and JK if town are much bigger threats to scum, and scum should be trying to get them lynched/killed.

These are not matters of opinion (maybe you can argue the relative value of a Tracker vs. Jailkeeper vs. Named Townie to town, but it's pretty clear cut where the utility lies).  These are facts that have surfaced during the game.  The claims occurred.  They point toward only one realistic conclusion.

It's clear there are biases, and that most of those biases are against me.  I have no expectation that O will take a step back from his emotions and look at the situation logically.  I have no expectation that scum, especially scum under Faust's thumb, will do anything against whatever Faust's plan is, because that's what good scum partners do.  I know a few other players have developed personal biases over time, and they can be hard to overcome.

But if you are someone who's able to distance yourself from bias, especially conscious bias, and look at the information we know, it's clear who's lying. 

Scum's biggest advantage in any mafia game is information.  They have much more of it than we do.  It is town's responsibility to look at the information we gain through every means possible, review it, and act on it.  To blanket dismiss some information because of a personal bias against the source is not how we win.

Again, if I'm lying, the worst thing that happens is a named VT gets lynched and there's an easy lynch tomorrow.  And that's even discounting the edge case where this is town vs. town (if I've been jailed every night, my No Result on Faust on N1 is because of jailing, not him lying.  If I was blocked that night, etc.). 

But if you believe scum here, and lynch me instead, town loses a PR who can (HOPEFULLY) confirm someone else, and I can be confirmed by the Tracker, if he's real.

It's all about compare and contrast, peoples.  I have a super confirmable claim and actual value to town; faust has a super convenient and unconfirmable claim and no value to town.  Lynching him costs the town nothing, has no downside (just a VT), and has significant upside (catch scum if ash is telling the truth, high chance of catching scum is ash is lying).  Lynching me costs the town something (investigations) and has a significant downside, and little upside (lynched scum is ash is lying is the only one I can come up with).

Faust is more likely to be scum and is less risk to town's chances as a mislynch.  Ashersky is less likely to be scum (by far) and much higher risk to town's chances if mislynched.

I can't imagine this doesn't answer any and all questions and doubts.
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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3487 on: June 08, 2017, 03:08:25 am »

Can you emotionally explain to me how you think the three deaths last night occurred? I'm just emotionally incapable of seeing a reasonably emotionally likely possibility, emotionally of course.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3488 on: June 08, 2017, 03:32:00 am »

I can't imagine this doesn't answer any and all questions and doubts.
Well it doesn't really answer any of my questions.

I see no point in arguing against anything else here, though I will have to fight the idea stuck in some people's heads that I'm scum at some point. If anyone else thinks one of ash's points has any merit, come forward and I will address it.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3489 on: June 08, 2017, 03:32:51 am »

Confirming no result from my investigation last night.
So how exactly was that information worth holding back? And why do you post, but don't answer my questions?

I'm fairly certain I did answer your questions.

As for holding it back, if Galz claimed to jail someone else, that would give me more information.
How does that depend on who claims first?
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faust

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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3490 on: June 08, 2017, 03:34:57 am »

I will just point out, specifically, the questions left unanswered:

- How are there 3 deaths tonight if I am no vig?
- How did you manage to believe in a Werewolf theory that doesn't hold up to even a couple of seconds of thought and setup reading?
- How was it beneficial for anyone but yourself to not claim your result immediately?
- Who did you (try to) investigate last night?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3491 on: June 08, 2017, 04:08:14 am »

- How are there 3 deaths tonight if I am no vig?

ash, I doubt you're going to have any success without answering this question.
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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3492 on: June 08, 2017, 04:52:15 am »

@faust, can you talk me through your reasoning for why killing PPS was good last night?

In particular, I'm interested in you making reference to things like how likely mcmc was to be alive, the possible benefits of a late-game sheeper, and how you see the rest of the game playing out in terms of how many people we stand to lose from NKs etc each night.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3493 on: June 08, 2017, 05:13:35 am »

@faust, can you talk me through your reasoning for why killing PPS was good last night?

In particular, I'm interested in you making reference to things like how likely mcmc was to be alive, the possible benefits of a late-game sheeper, and how you see the rest of the game playing out in terms of how many people we stand to lose from NKs etc each night.

The reasoning is as follows:

Scum has no benefit from shooting town!PPS. Like, it does not decrease the number of votes that town holds. That is unless PPS actually targets scum (but we still have a couple of ICs). So chances are they won't shoot him.

I would be asking "how do we lose this game?", because that is what I want to prevent. Had scum!PPS lived until LyLo and we lynched him then, he could have sheeped a scumpartner, resulting immediately in our loss. Scum!PPS alive effectively means that scum automatically wins a LyLo (unless we lynch all of PPS's partners before we lynch him). That is a huge upside for scum. Plus, it is likely that our ICs will be gone at some point, and then even town!PPS would have a chance to mistakenly sheep scum. This also results in them winning the LyLo situation.

So overall, leaving PPS alive is a big benefit for scum. And seeing as he won't die unless it benefits scum, there is no upside to the role for town. I thought killing him now and giving the additional vote to a near-confirmed town player that can evade nightkills was the best option. I did not wish to make this case during the day because it is not based on reads and a lynched based on that would not have been very informative. Also I had doubts that people would go along with my reasoning.

I also had a mild scumread on PPS, but that was not based on anything substantial.
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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3494 on: June 08, 2017, 05:19:33 am »

I thought pps was obv Town from when he offered to be the lynch because of his role.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3495 on: June 08, 2017, 05:23:03 am »

I thought pps was obv Town from when he offered to be the lynch because of his role.
I think scum!PPS is completely capable of doing that.
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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3496 on: June 08, 2017, 05:26:46 am »

Faust is definitely the fourth scummiest alive for me.
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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3497 on: June 08, 2017, 05:32:41 am »

Faust is definitely the fourth scummiest alive for me.
On the plus side, I am like the eighth towniest! And given that we have 2 ICs, I am almost as towny as I am scummy...

Can you explain why you think I'm scum?
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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3498 on: June 08, 2017, 05:43:43 am »

I find your reasons for shooting PPS unconvincing as I felt him incredibly likely to be town. I disagree that scum!pps would gambit the self lynch. So far you have attempted to vig 3 townies and each time I have felt there were better, scummier looking targets.
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Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 4
« Reply #3499 on: June 08, 2017, 05:44:14 am »

A townie can certainly hit 3/3 town members on vig shots. But a scum member will almost always do so.
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