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[SpaceAnemone]

nevermind we have the 50/50 on Space/Jimmm to deal with after this.

I think you mean the Space/Iguana situation! Preferably the Iguana half of it.

If someone wants to point out a scenario where the deaths aren't: hider behind scum, Vig, Mafia kill i'm all ears.

Oh, I kind of did that, but there's the hider-behind-person-who's-killed possibility, and also the inventor-poison one, though they're both less likely than TWM following through on his original hiding algorithm, I think.

[SpaceAnemone]

Also, O, did you ever claim what slot you bid for?

If not, why not?

[O]

I didn't see the claiming order for the second round of claims, wasn't paying the most attention since one of e/RR was confirmed scum and the game seemed to be stalling out because of Ashersky. I can still do right now if you wish?

[O]

nevermind we have the 50/50 on Space/Jimmm to deal with after this.

I think you mean the Space/Iguana situation! Preferably the Iguana half of it.

If someone wants to point out a scenario where the deaths aren't: hider behind scum, Vig, Mafia kill i'm all ears.

Oh, I kind of did that, but there's the hider-behind-person-who's-killed possibility, and also the inventor-poison one, though they're both less likely than TWM following through on his original hiding algorithm, I think.

I did forget about inventor but see no reason to think TWM didn't follow his plan.

More importantly my accounting already has TWM's death as a hider death... that's 2/3 deaths..

[SpaceAnemone]

I didn't see the claiming order for the second round of claims, wasn't paying the most attention since one of e/RR was confirmed scum and the game seemed to be stalling out because of Ashersky. I can still do right now if you wish?

Well, I do wish, because I'm a completionist like that! Happy to wait for one of the more conf!townie people to give the edict, though :-P

We also don't know what Awaclus went for, though now that TWM is conf!town, we can trust Awaclus absolutely as our IC, so I'm not really expecting him to indulge my curiosity here.

[O]

I am inclined to believe that Galzria is telling the truth about his draft. That being said I don't see the benefit of claiming now.

I also bid for slot 11, being so low in the draft, and did not receive it. That was very softly suggested in this post but obviously you could say that wasn't really a soft claim.

[Dylan32]

Ok, as far as alternate theories to explain 3 deaths, what about scum inventor poisoning someone (probably mcmc). The hammer hero is unkillable if he uses protection on a given night, but he isn't immune to all actions because of it. So say scum poisoned him last night, he would die tonight unless he either used his death proof ability or was doctored last night, assuming I'm reading everything correctly.  So TWM could have not hid, been shot by mafia, faust shot pps, and mcmc died by poison.

I don't think this is the most likely scenario, but it crossed my mind.  One important note is that inventor and role cop are in the same slot, so Ash could have taken inventor and fakeclaimed role cop.  So that is another possible situation which would have scum!Ash.

I was starting to say I didn't think Inventor would be a particularly useful role for scum here, but I reread it and 4/6 of the items could be pretty good. Motivator (double night kill), next night deathproof, same day beloved (if scum partner is going to get lynched with hammer hero waiting, give the item, HH votes, self hammer after HH thought he had the hammer, ruin hammer hero's night), and 1-shot poisoner.  The neighbor could potentially be useful for 2 scum to have a permanently open QT ("This QT remains open until one of the players dies"). So I ended up convincing myself that this role would be better for scum than I thought.

So right now we have the potential of at least one of the two of Space and Iguana, one of faust and ash (impossible for this to be town v town right?).

I know he didn't become IC, but RR's slot counter claim isn't scummy now that e flipped normal SK right?

The biggest thing for me not completely buying into faust over ash is that the narrative for scum!vig shooting pps is way easier to believe than what he said his town reasoning was for doing so.  Scum knew TWM would be more vulnerable tonight that most other nights, and we all knew pps was sheeping him. Kill both of them and get the extra votes out of the way without it being able to be used against them.  (Scum kill TWM and faust shoot pps together requires an inventor either poisoning or motivating the kill).

What if faust and Ash are actually both scum and set up this 1v1 to earn what would amount to IC status for whichever of them town doesn't go ahead and lynch?  My last scum game, ash fake claimed tracker and a scummy result on our partner J Reggie and we sacrificed him.  We both survived til the end and won.  I don't have a personal example, but I don't think anyone would question faust's ability to pull something like that off.  What a better plan for two of the top players on the board than to go big or go home for Mafia 100.

tl;dr
Inventor is actually pretty sweet for scum and is the same slot as ash's claim.
I am leaning towards scum!vig!faust and inventor!scum!ash rather than this being a true 1v1.  Not voting til after claims are finished though.

p.s.  Sorry for the two unrelated thoughts in the middle. That was stream of consciousness and I'm not changing it.

ppe 7

[iguanaiguana]

The fact that Space is 'thinking this all through' and not voting me is a clear sign that he wants to delay the 1v1 between me and him as long as possible. Ash's parading is also a clear distraction from that. Space is the scum!PR here, his play fits it much better than Ash's unsubstantiated nonsense.

Galz and Faust must be the other partners,  and they are making counterclaims on each other because they felt this ridiculous line of play would be necessary with a supposedly unkillable hammer hero  in the game.

There, game solved. We just need to lynch them all in any order, preferably starting with conf!scum!Space.

[Dylan32]

The fact that Space is 'thinking this all through' and not voting me is a clear sign that he wants to delay the 1v1 between me and him as long as possible. Ash's parading is also a clear distraction from that. Space is the scum!PR here, his play fits it much better than Ash's unsubstantiated nonsense.

Galz and Faust must be the other partners,  and they are making counterclaims on each other because they felt this ridiculous line of play would be necessary with a supposedly unkillable hammer hero  in the game.

There, game solved. We just need to lynch them all in any order, preferably starting with conf!scum!Space.

How are Galz and Faust counterclaiming each other?

[O]

Dylan i agree with your analysis but since scum!Faust!inventor --> STRONGLY implies !scum!ashersky!notrolecop i see no reason why we shouldn't lynch Ashersky first. If he's a rolecop then we know faust is very very unlikely to be inventor.

[Dylan32]

Dylan i agree with your analysis but since scum!Faust!inventor --> STRONGLY implies !scum!ashersky!notrolecop i see no reason why we shouldn't lynch Ashersky first. If he's a rolecop then we know faust is very very unlikely to be inventor.

No I'm saying faust is scum!vig and Ash is scum!inventor probably.

[Dylan32]

I hadn't even thought about faust being scum inventor. (Most unlikely since he was #1 in the draft)

[O]

The fact that Space is 'thinking this all through' and not voting me is a clear sign that he wants to delay the 1v1 between me and him as long as possible. Ash's parading is also a clear distraction from that. Space is the scum!PR here, his play fits it much better than Ash's unsubstantiated nonsense.

Galz and Faust must be the other partners,  and they are making counterclaims on each other because they felt this ridiculous line of play would be necessary with a supposedly unkillable hammer hero  in the game.

There, game solved. We just need to lynch them all in any order, preferably starting with conf!scum!Space.

You must understand from my perspective why Ash is a 100x better lynch than Space right? It's 50-50 vs extremely unlikely inventor sidecase % chance


PPE: Dylan my bad, that also makes sense but still supports the "DIE ASHER DIE" contingency.

[SpaceAnemone]

More importantly my accounting already has TWM's death as a hider death... that's 2/3 deaths..

How do you mean?

I think the most likely scenario is that faust vigged PPS, TWM hid behind iguana, and mcmc was the mafia faction kill.

The second-most-likely option is that faust vigged PPS, TWM decided to mix things up and hid behind mcmc, and then both mcmc and TWM died because of the mafia faction kill.

In both scenarios, TWM dies as a result of hiding, but one gives better evidence than the other.

I'm maybe 90% confident that TWM did the informative thing and followed through on his algorithm of picking randomly between me and iguana. However, he showed earlier in the game that he got really frustrated by town consensus/notions of optimal play constraining is ability to use his PR how he liked (and ISTR he got similarly frustrated in another recent game which may have been NM10), so I think there is a small chance that he tried something unexpected in the hope of catching scum off-guard, especially since we should have expected someone to protect mcmc last night.

[Dylan32]

The fact that Space is 'thinking this all through' and not voting me is a clear sign that he wants to delay the 1v1 between me and him as long as possible. Ash's parading is also a clear distraction from that. Space is the scum!PR here, his play fits it much better than Ash's unsubstantiated nonsense.

Galz and Faust must be the other partners,  and they are making counterclaims on each other because they felt this ridiculous line of play would be necessary with a supposedly unkillable hammer hero  in the game.

There, game solved. We just need to lynch them all in any order, preferably starting with conf!scum!Space.

You must understand from my perspective why Ash is a 100x better lynch than Space right? It's 50-50 vs extremely unlikely inventor sidecase % chance


PPE: Dylan my bad, that also makes sense but still supports the "DIE ASHER DIE" contingency.

Yeah I never said it helped Ash's case. I just don't want to jump on "DIE ASHER DIE" and forget that a scum flip would not completely clear faust.

[O]

More importantly my accounting already has TWM's death as a hider death... that's 2/3 deaths..

How do you mean?

I think the most likely scenario is that faust vigged PPS, TWM hid behind iguana, and mcmc was the mafia faction kill.

The second-most-likely option is that faust vigged PPS, TWM decided to mix things up and hid behind mcmc, and then both mcmc and TWM died because of the mafia faction kill.

In both scenarios, TWM dies as a result of hiding, but one gives better evidence than the other.

I'm maybe 90% confident that TWM did the informative thing and followed through on his algorithm of picking randomly between me and iguana. However, he showed earlier in the game that he got really frustrated by town consensus/notions of optimal play constraining is ability to use his PR how he liked (and ISTR he got similarly frustrated in another recent game which may have been NM10), so I think there is a small chance that he tried something unexpected in the hope of catching scum off-guard, especially since we should have expected someone to protect mcmc last night.

I was addressing Ashersky's claim that Faust is investigation immune and not the Vig. We have no problem assuming Ashersky is lying, which is in fact why I'm voting for him right now.

[Dylan32]

For the people that are firmly on the DIE ASH DIE wagon, would you be reacting the same way that you would have if he had revealed that stuff yesterday during the claim when we all hoped he would without making the game wait?

[O]

For the people that are firmly on the DIE ASH DIE wagon, would you be reacting the same way that you would have if he had revealed that stuff yesterday during the claim when we all hoped he would without making the game wait?

I've been reacting the same way since well before he even had this ridiculous claim/stallout TBH.

[iguanaiguana]

The fact that Space is 'thinking this all through' and not voting me is a clear sign that he wants to delay the 1v1 between me and him as long as possible. Ash's parading is also a clear distraction from that. Space is the scum!PR here, his play fits it much better than Ash's unsubstantiated nonsense.

Galz and Faust must be the other partners,  and they are making counterclaims on each other because they felt this ridiculous line of play would be necessary with a supposedly unkillable hammer hero  in the game.

There, game solved. We just need to lynch them all in any order, preferably starting with conf!scum!Space.

How are Galz and Faust counterclaiming each other?

I mean that Galz is claiming to block Faust's shot N1,  and Ash is now claiming to investigate Faust twice in a row. Thein claims are all stacked on top of each other in an unnatural way that looks scummy to me.

[SpaceAnemone]

The fact that Space is 'thinking this all through' and not voting me is a clear sign that he wants to delay the 1v1 between me and him as long as possible.

I am not a "he"!!! Please use "she/her" if you can't deal with gender-neutral pronouns.

The only point I can see in voting for you over ash right now is that it delays lynching ash for long enough to let the claims happen, since right now I think he's on L-2 already.

I mean, people think I seem scummy in spite of the fact that the massclaim would not have happened without my constant pushing and prompting Awaclus to get it through. What are the chances of me running you up to a lynch when most people are still more interested in looking at scum!ash? The fact that you're trying to goad me into voting for you probably means that ash is the higher-value scum PR to take out.

PPE: 5

[SpaceAnemone]

For the people that are firmly on the DIE ASH DIE wagon, would you be reacting the same way that you would have if he had revealed that stuff yesterday during the claim when we all hoped he would without making the game wait?

I'm keen on the ash wagon, I just don't want to quicklynch before the night actions have been claimed. I think the most damning thing for ash is the vagueness with which he hinted at impossible claims yesterday, including the fact that somehow his evidence would come out even if he were to die, which is not compatible with the role he's now claimed. Plus there's very little evidence for his WW theory over a standard mafia pairing, so the fact he acted like he was confident in that before e flipped SK means that I think he was bluffing.

[SpaceAnemone]

Here's my list; it's ended up as being only a slight variation of faust's. I've used "3.T" for conf!town and "1.?" for faction-unknown. I've even put myself iguana and ash as unknowns just to make it easier for the rest of you.

1.? faust, 2-shot vig (slot 1)
2.? ?
3.T Jimmmmm, original Mason (slot 6)
4.T mcmc, Hammer Hero (slot 9)
5.? LL, VT (went for slot 1)
6.S e, SK, 1-Shot Bus Driver (claims slot 13; definitely can't have been 6)
7.? sudgy, VT (went for slot 6)
8.? Dylan, VT (went for slot 13)
9.T Eevee, was VT, became Mason. (went for slot 6)
10.T Awaclus, VT
11.? iguana, VT (went for slot 13)
12.? ashersky, Role Cop (slot 4?)
13.T TWM, Hider (Slot 10)
14.T JR, VT
15.T PPS, restless sheeper (slot 2)
16.? ?
17.? Jake, Tracker (slot 12)
18.? Space, VT (went for slot 12)
19.? RR, VT (went for slot 13)
20.? Galz, Jailkeeper (slot 11)
21.? O, VT (went for slot?)
22.? ?
23.? ?

I feel very townie on RR now that the stuff with e has blown over.
I think ash and iguana are scum.
For now I think Galz is more likely to be town than scum, but I'd really like to hear the N3 night action claims.

LL and sudgy are both high-placed people with convenient VT claims. I think either could be hiding a scum PR up there. However, if iguana flips scum-PR, then actually Dylan is the most interesting person to look at, since he's above Iguana and claiming the same slot, meaning that Iguana could have known for sure that slot 13 was a safe fake-claim when really he may have taken the strongman or another useful scum PR.

[Galzria]

I believe I'll have about an hour to spare right now and since Ash has been on and didn't claim his results I'm not going to stall things any longer:

As Jake is aware, and is probably obvious to most people paying attention at this point:

I jailed Ashersky last night

"OMG WHY DIDN'T YOU PROTECT MCMC??!??!??"

Reason #1: Strongman
If scum has this role (and I believe now that it is likely (I'll circle back to this), then jailing mcmc was a waste of a night action. I simply couldn't protect him, so I went with the next best option in my mind - jailing Ashersky again. Had his claim yesterday not gone the way it did, maybe I would've taken somebody else - but as it was I wanted to limit any damage scum!Ash could do.

I was incredibly nervous of crossing night actions with Faust, who I believe is in fact a Vig and - at the time - felt above average confidence was town (PPS has me reconsidering).

Reason #2: No Strongman/Roleblocker
If scum didn't have a way to circumvent my protection then I figured the odds of them wasting a shot on a protected mcmc to be less than 50%. Obviously it was a great opportunity for them - but my "obvious" play here would be to protect mcmc. As such, I thought there would be a decent chance that I would die last night - since if they still couldn't kill mcmc then I had to go.

I'm still alive. Mcmc is dead. SK didn't take the JK Slot and JK wasn't chosen either. If my slot was taken, it was taken by scum and they have Strongman. It's either that or nobody took my slot. Given the results from last night, I'm inclined to believe the former.

Further, thinking on NK's:

N1 - Faust is blocked, 2.7 kills Cuzz, Mafia kills gkrieg
N2 - Faust kills Cuzz, Mafia kills Eevee, 2.7 kills...? (I'm guessing he shot Ash who was jailed)
N3 - Faust shoots PPS, Mafia Kill mcmc, TWM dies hiding (most likely Space/Iguana, maybe mcmc, maybe someone else entirely).

The kills each night add up to what we know, without some convoluted reason for why there are more/less than there should be.

I'll happily debate anybody that believes I should've jailed mcmc here, but it was my choice and I still believe that I made the correct one.

[O]

We should definitely not quickhammer (OR PUT HIM TO L-1) without finishing discussion on the rest of the info. unvote just in case because i don't trust you all.

That being said, if I were scum and Space (who is just the poster before me here) was my scumbuddy AND an alignment cop confirmed Space was scum AND Space claimed Jester/Bus Driver I'd still be more convinced Ashersky was scum than Space at this point. This is pretty much the most open and shut case imaginable. Ashersky's claim is scummy and his behavior is even scummier.

[SpaceAnemone]

We should definitely not quickhammer (OR PUT HIM TO L-1) without finishing discussion on the rest of the info.

This is exactly why I'm not voting him even though I want to see him lynched in the end today. Though I realise that the more we express sentiments such as this, the less likely he is to cooperate with the claims rather than just lurk and try to delay us.