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[Galzria]

I am inclined to believe that Galzria is telling the truth about his draft. That being said I don't see the benefit of claiming now.

85% of it was based off my read on Faust, his recognizing of my read (whatever it meant to him yesterday), and his insistence that I reveal today.

There's a chance that HE'S the SK in my scenario, but I don't believe the pieces add up.

[O]

I am inclined to believe that Galzria is telling the truth about his draft. That being said I don't see the benefit of claiming now.

85% of it was based off my read on Faust, his recognizing of my read (whatever it meant to him yesterday), and his insistence that I reveal today.

There's a chance that HE'S the SK in my scenario, but I don't believe the pieces add up.

Right. I should have said if Faust claims Vig it's very likely one of Faust/Ashersky is scum.

[O]

also part of your plan is conditional on there not being a strongman. You do realize there's like 75% shot of there being a strongman if you're being truthful?

Odds of mafia getting that slot vs odds of SK getting that slot... though I suppose SK might gun for it more, but i think the slots equally appealing to both scum factions.

[faust]

Okay then.

I am the 2-shot Vigilante. I have received the first spot in the draft order. The game that got the most votes was M19.

I already thought Galzria would claim as he did, he softclaimed pretty heavily.

And with that, vote: Galzria

Some explanation:
- he claims to have blocked the two players that are most likely to have strong PRs.
- him thinking I am the vig based on very circumstantial evidence shows he is actively looking for a vig. Which is the kind of thing mafia would do if they don't have that role in their team.
- he basically outed both of us as PRs on D2 with no benefit to town. The only thing he could hope to get with that move is my trust, and that is something that scum wants much much more than town.
- the jailkeep mcmc plan is obviously awful due to Strongman/Roelbocker (both of which exist separately AND as part of a JOAT).

[Galzria]

also part of your plan is conditional on there not being a strongman. You do realize there's like 75% shot of there being a strongman if you're being truthful?

Odds of mafia getting that slot vs odds of SK getting that slot... though I suppose SK might gun for it more, but i think the slots equally appealing to both scum factions.

Yeah - It's definitely a scum slot. There's not really much reason for town to go for it except to block scum - but that's unlikely like, 0% chance as I got JK on random, which is what town would've taken.

So either Mafia have Strongman, we have WW's, or nobody took the slot.

I guess the idea just sounded great in my head. It may still be ok. mcmc could randomize. I could randomize. I dunno.

[LaLight]

@faust,

Just out of curiosity, why have you taken vig being in the first slot?

[Galzria]

Okay then.

I am the 2-shot Vigilante. I have received the first spot in the draft order. The game that got the most votes was M19.

I already thought Galzria would claim as he did, he softclaimed pretty heavily.

And with that, vote: Galzria

Some explanation:
- he claims to have blocked the two players that are most likely to have strong PRs.
- him thinking I am the vig based on very circumstantial evidence shows he is actively looking for a vig. Which is the kind of thing mafia would do if they don't have that role in their team.
- he basically outed both of us as PRs on D2 with no benefit to town. The only thing he could hope to get with that move is my trust, and that is something that scum wants much much more than town.
- the jailkeep mcmc plan is obviously awful due to Strongman/Roelbocker (both of which exist separately AND as part of a JOAT).

Point 1: I don't understand why you and Ash are the "two players that are most likely to have strong PRs." - but my reasons for choosing you two are listed above.

Point 2: I don't think it was at all highly circumstantial. I knew who I jailed (you) N1. You opened d2 by claiming the kill on Cal looked like the SK kill, and that you had something you might want to discuss. The pieces HEAVILY indicated you were a Vig. I wasn't -looking- for it, but c'mon.

Point 3: Yes, I did out us both as PR's. For different reasons though. Your claim was obvious to me. As an individual. If I saw that mafia would almost certainly see it as a group. Prior to mcmc's claim I thought we would lead to your claiming d2. His claim changed things and I dropped it. My "outing" of myself was because I thought my PR would be useful to town. It still might be - although O is correct regarding Strongman. Either way, my choices were to say nothing and hope nobody noticed (I didn't feel this likely), or say something and hope it lead somewhere productive. I didn't straight up call you out yesterday because I still wanted it to be your call - same for today. Hence my asking if you were sure.

[Galzria]

Also, and this isn't super helpful (WIFOM crap), but if I knew you were Vig and I was scum:

A) I probably would've stayed quiet and told my buddies last night instead of calling it out in the thread, yeah?

And

B) Pretty sure I would insist we shoot you last night.

Also, I want a conditional vote: Ashersky --- Faust, did you shoot one of those two last night?

[faust]

@faust,

Just out of curiosity, why have you taken vig being in the first slot?

Well a couple of things.

I know I don't have a big life expectancy in mafia games. Cop roles are good for town, but I was too worried about being killed early without any useful results. Vig has a more immediate impact, and also it's limited to 2 shots, so I was more likely able to use to the full potential. Plus vig is very problematic in the hands of scum.

IC was out of the question since I expected to be killed early anyway and then that would have no use.

There was nothing similarly strong in other slots.

[faust]

Also, I want a conditional vote: Ashersky --- Faust, did you shoot one of those two last night?

You would like to know, wouldn't you?

[Galzria]

Also, if you DID shoot n1 that shot wasn't used (confirmed with Robz), so you still have at least one shot left regardless of if you shot last night.

[Galzria]

Also, I want a conditional vote: Ashersky --- Faust, did you shoot one of those two last night?

You would like to know, wouldn't you?

Yes, because it would indicate the likelihood of Ash being scum.

[faust]

Also, if you DID shoot n1 that shot wasn't used (confirmed with Robz), so you still have at least one shot left regardless of if you shot last night.

Thank you for telling everyone what they really didn't need to hear.

[Galzria]

Also, if you DID shoot n1 that shot wasn't used (confirmed with Robz), so you still have at least one shot left regardless of if you shot last night.

Thank you for telling everyone what they really didn't need to hear.

I don't see why it hurts.

[Galzria]

Also, if you DID shoot n1 that shot wasn't used (confirmed with Robz), so you still have at least one shot left regardless of if you shot last night.

Thank you for telling everyone what they really didn't need to hear.

I don't see why it hurts.

Further,  you may not have realized. Would you like me to have PM'd you? Pretty sure that's against the rules.

[faust]

Also, if you DID shoot n1 that shot wasn't used (confirmed with Robz), so you still have at least one shot left regardless of if you shot last night.

Thank you for telling everyone what they really didn't need to hear.

I don't see why it hurts.

Further,  you may not have realized. Would you like me to have PM'd you? Pretty sure that's against the rules.

Because there are certain obvious advantages to scum thinking I have no shots left.

I would like you to have trusted me to know how to use my own PR.

[O]

Also, if you DID shoot n1 that shot wasn't used (confirmed with Robz), so you still have at least one shot left regardless of if you shot last night.

Thank you for telling everyone what they really didn't need to hear.

If Faust assumes Galz was scum there's very little reason for Faust to be upset at Galzria for saying this.

That being said I still think Ashersky is by far the most likely scum, and Faust could nearly confirm that if he did shoot yesterday I believe?

[LaLight]

vote: Galzria

Was it really needed to claim? Why do you intent ash is scum before you know if faust shot? That all looks like a (badly) fabricated plan actually

PPE: 2

[faust]

Also, if you DID shoot n1 that shot wasn't used (confirmed with Robz), so you still have at least one shot left regardless of if you shot last night.

Thank you for telling everyone what they really didn't need to hear.

If Faust assumes Galz was scum there's very little reason for Faust to be upset at Galzria for saying this.

That being said I still think Ashersky is by far the most likely scum, and Faust could nearly confirm that if he did shoot yesterday I believe?

Well I cannot be sure, right? I am sure that Galzria played this wrong if he is indeed town.

I don't think ashersky is anywhere near confirmed scum, and I don't trust Galzria.

[faust]

Point 1: I don't understand why you and Ash are the "two players that are most likely to have strong PRs." - but my reasons for choosing you two are listed above. .

Because we are the two players in this game that have been active parts of this community for the largest amount of time, and thus are likely to perform well in the draft process.

[O]

my initial impression says that it's better for the town for Faust to claim who he shot, which makes me suspicious of Faust for not revealing.

The most important thing is that we lynch the scum today. Scum knowing whether or not Faust has a vig shot is probably unimportant? unless he has 2 vig shots, he is only semi-hampered in his ability to get a last vig shot off. If Galz is scum jailkeeper i presume jailkeeping Faust prevents them from killing faust? not entire sure.

[LaLight]

my initial impression says that it's better for the town for Faust to claim who he shot, which makes me suspicious of Faust for not revealing.

The most important thing is that we lynch the scum today. Scum knowing whether or not Faust has a vig shot is probably unimportant? unless he has 2 vig shots, he is only semi-hampered in his ability to get a last vig shot off. If Galz is scum jailkeeper i presume jailkeeping Faust prevents them from killing faust? not entire sure.

I guess it's either Jailkeeping or killing

[LaLight]

or Jailkeeping and Strongman killing

[O]

are Faust and Ashersky really two of the most well respected players likely to be high on the draft?

[Galzria]

vote: Galzria

Was it really needed to claim? Why do you intent ash is scum before you know if faust shot? That all looks like a (badly) fabricated plan actually

PPE: 2

I claimed because Faust asked me to, and following n1 I felt (and correctly so) that my claim had the biggest impact on him. I could've lied about who I jailed n1, or why that made me read Faust the way I did, or he'll, what my PR is even - but lying as town is stupid.

Ash has a high likelihood of being scum if Faust shot because there were only two deaths.

SK + Mafia + Vig = 3. If we know the Vig is one, then one scum shot was likely blocked (or hit the same target I suppose). As I know I blocked Ash, this would lead to the idea that if Faust shot, Ash has a decent chance to be scum.