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[ashersky]

I guess TWM is better, but we haven't really confirmed him yet.

But how is Awaclus better then?

Awaclus is basically confirmed town. There is no way he's scum together with TWM. They could be on different scum teams, but that's all.

This is in the if TWM is scum scenario?  I think it goes like this:

If TWS is scum...no further information on mcmc or Awaclus, no Hider in the game.
If mcmc is scum...no further information on TWS or Awaclus.
If Awaclus is scum...TWS is the same scum faction as Awaclus.

Why is there "no way he's scum together with TWM" in your statement?

[ashersky]

I'm fairly certain we can just lynch in sign-up order and win most of the time.  All that matters currently is if we believe MCMC and TWM are town.

Stolen hammers are the only threat...

SK doesn't steal the hammer; as the sole member of his faction, he can't out himself.
WW probably doesn't steal the hammer; giving up 50% of the team is too risky.
Mafia might try to steal the hammer; 25% of the team is probably okay, as long as it is a goon.

A stolen hammer doesn't spell disaster for us though, as protection is a possibility for mcmc and TWM can just wifom his target or not hide at all.  Although it's probably in all scum's best interests for all scum to shoot for mcmc if he misses a hammer, just to try to stop the unstoppable setup win.

So, basically we do everything we can to ensure mcmc hammers and we win.  This no longer feels like a mafia game, just a game of posting in order.

For now, L-4 has to be the gate.  If all 4 mafia want to try to quickhammer there, it's worth it for town.  So, I'd say we get to L-4 and then wait, then assign vote order from there.

Mcmc clearly hammers.
TWM and Awaclus get L-2 and L-1 in any order.
Those three can choose the L-3 voter.

Re-do this order on the next day, calculating for however many scum may be left alive.  Rinse, repeat, win.

I literally don't care who we lynch on any day at this point, as long as it isn't one of those three.

(This is all assuming claims are true to this point.  If you have a counterclaim, it's time for that.)

[pingpongsam]

pps, you should reconsider sheeping because you will be the person hammering, not mcmc. Those two roles antisynergize

Point taken.

Sheep: TWM

[iguanaiguana]

Unvote

I am happy to do whatever is necessary to help make sure the plan goes smoothly and we win. I'll be around.

[Roadrunner7671]

I don't think we should random lynch or phone it in. If all the townies besides TWM and mcmcsalot die, it doesn't really matter that they're confirmed town.

[ashersky]

I don't think we should random lynch or phone it in. If all the townies besides TWM and mcmcsalot die, it doesn't really matter that they're confirmed town.

I will say again, the likelihood of that happening is extremely low.  Random lynching + whatever shooting scum does will still hit scum over the course of 12 deaths.

Put it this way, we have 20 people alive, remove 2 from the death pool.  Day/nights 2-5 equals 12 deaths max (assuming no vigging).  That leaves 6 alive with our 2 deathproof.  There are at most 6 scum left alive, which means you would have to have every single death hit a townie.

Scum can't know they aren't shooting the other scum, and even mildly informed lynching could help lynch scum, so really, one or more scum will die in the next 12 deaths, and we will automatically win.

I think fighting this, especially with fake-y pleas of "no, we have to keep trying!!!" is scummy.

[ashersky]

There are math people alive in this game, right?  Do the chances thing.

Up to 1 in 3 chance to randomly lynch scum today is where we start (up to 6 out of 18).  We whiff and two townies die?
Then we are at 6 in 15.  Whiff and two more townies die?
We are trying to find 6 in 12, or basically half the remaining players.  And that's the worst case.

If we only have 5 scum, adjust accordingly, but still, the odds are overwhelmingly in our favor.  Scum no killing can prolong their agony, but not much else.

[LaLight]

I'm wondering if massclaim even bests our odds. I mean we either have conflicting claims or a pool of vts. Is something wrong with this plan?

[Roadrunner7671]

I'm wondering if massclaim even bests our odds. I mean we either have conflicting claims or a pool of vts. Is something wrong with this plan?

It lets the SK know who not to shoot? I think it could be okay though.

[LaLight]

I'm wondering if massclaim even bests our odds. I mean we either have conflicting claims or a pool of vts. Is something wrong with this plan?

It lets the SK know who not to shoot? I think it could be okay though.

Eh, I wonder what miracle should happen in this game for SK to win tho

[Roadrunner7671]

I don't think we should random lynch or phone it in. If all the townies besides TWM and mcmcsalot die, it doesn't really matter that they're confirmed town.

I will say again, the likelihood of that happening is extremely low.  Random lynching + whatever shooting scum does will still hit scum over the course of 12 deaths.

Put it this way, we have 20 people alive, remove 2 from the death pool.  Day/nights 2-5 equals 12 deaths max (assuming no vigging).  That leaves 6 alive with our 2 deathproof.  There are at most 6 scum left alive, which means you would have to have every single death hit a townie.

Scum can't know they aren't shooting the other scum, and even mildly informed lynching could help lynch scum, so really, one or more scum will die in the next 12 deaths, and we will automatically win.

I think fighting this, especially with fake-y pleas of "no, we have to keep trying!!!" is scummy.

Okay, it makes sense now.

But it doesn't matter how scummy I am, does it? 

[Roadrunner7671]

I'm wondering if massclaim even bests our odds. I mean we either have conflicting claims or a pool of vts. Is something wrong with this plan?

It lets the SK know who not to shoot? I think it could be okay though.

Eh, I wonder what miracle should happen in this game for SK to win tho

If TWM is the SK

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

I'm wondering if massclaim even bests our odds. I mean we either have conflicting claims or a pool of vts. Is something wrong with this plan?

No I'm fine with it

[2.71828.....]

I really appreciate sudgy's work at reread, but ashersky's work leaves me convinced that we should just push through anyone who at least moderately could be scum. Eventually PoE will catch up and even if we mislynch like 3 times in a row we still have enough town left to win.

20 players, 4 regular scum, 1/2 other scum
Assuming all deaths are town deaths:
Lynch, x2 NK-> 17 players on D3
Lynch, x2 NK-> 14 players on D4
Lynch, x2 NK-> 11 players on D5
Lynch x2 NK-> 8 players on D6

Ok, the third mislynch would put us in a situation where if we have 2 WWs and 4 scum working together they could push a lynch through. A fourth would mean scum can control with help from SK. A fifth scum win without 3rd party help

But that is 4/5 mislynches. I doubt we do that especially with the "ICs" that have been created. So yeah. Let's lynch Andrew and move on

[Robz888]

Vote Count 2.5

Cuzz (2): faust, AndrewisFTTW
O (1): Awaclus
AndrewisFTTW (3): Cuzz, pingpongsam, 2.71828....
SpaceAnemone (1): Eevee
Dylan23 (1): Galzria
LaLight (1): RoadRunner7671
faust (1): O
RoadRunner7671 (1): LaLight
sudgy (1): Dylan32

Not Voting (8.): SpaceAnemone, mcmcsalot, ashersky, JaketheBaseballGod22, sudgy, The_Wine_Merchant, Jimmmmm, iguanaiguana

With 20 alive it takes just 10 to lynch. Day 2 ends on Sunday, May 28th, at 11:00 AM Forum Time.

[LaLight]

vote: Andrew

let's see. I think the plan has no flaws

[pingpongsam]

I'm wondering if massclaim even bests our odds. I mean we either have conflicting claims or a pool of vts. Is something wrong with this plan?

It lets the SK know who not to shoot? I think it could be okay though.

Eh, I wonder what miracle should happen in this game for SK to win tho

If TWM is the SK

The breadcrumb seems highly unlikely but extremely devious of a plan. I'm curious how damaging to the plan it is to lynch TWM for verification. I'm thinking very but I'm also thinking its a very losing proposition if this is a gambit. My gut says you don't seed this gambit D1 to pull it D2 but my mind says that is the best flavor of WIFOM there is. I'm always the super paranoid guy about the obvious town claims, though.


PPE I am way more in favor of lynching Andrew

[mcmcsalot]

Everyone calm down.

Listen for a second, I asked for all the tracking pr's to track twm or watch me ect. because we want to be sure twm is actually town and is actually hiding behind me. I get that actions fail on twm but not on me.

Also I don't think a massclaim is good because again we are not sure twm/awaclus is town and because scum could snag the hammer from me while twm and I are posting our votes.

Lastly, I don't get what ash's number are at all, you are only considering 2 deaths a day.

Currently we are at A) 15T/4M/1sk or B) 14T/4M/2WW

A) mislynch+mafiakill+skkill = 12T/4M/1Sk, mislynch+mafiakill+skkill = 9T/4M/1Sk, mislynch+mafiakill+skkill 6T/4M/1SK, mislynch+mafiakill+skkill = 3T/4M/1SK town loses. That's 4 mislynches and we lose. We currently have 17 players to chose from and 5 are scum so a 29% chance of hitting scum on a random lynch.

B) mislynch+mafiakill+WWkill = 11T/4M/2WW, mislynch+mafiakill+WWkill = 8T/4M/2WW, mislynch+mafiakill+WWkill 5T/4M/2WW, mislynch+mafiakill+WWkill = 2T/4M/2WW town loses. That's 4 mislynches and we lose. We currently have 17 players to chose from and 6 are scum so a 35% chance of hitting scum randomly.

Okay I guess we do have a pretty good shot but we still need to be kinda smart and we should still have night actions try to help us as much as possible. We should also still be scumhunting, FOS anyone who is taking from my claim a 100% guarantee me/twm/awaclus are town and hiding behind the fact the we have a "great chance of winning" so they don't have to contribute.

Ppe 2.7 did a similar thing

[mcmcsalot]

I mean I've got my theories on who scum is and I guess traditional scumhunting is going to feel stupid to everyone so I'm okay with picking some lynch targets, I just hate that if we mislynch a time or two and then the hammer gets snagged away we've wasted multiple wagons ect.

[ashersky]

I specifically considered only three deaths a day, ignoring vigilantes.  If my numbers didn't reflect that at every turn, it was a math error or typo.

18 to 15 to 12 to 9 to 6, from today until opening of Day 6.  For Day 6 to even happen, two scum have to die.

You aren't making any new statements, but you are muddying the waters unnecessarily.  Yes, we could lose with 4 (4!) mislynches in a row, but considering the possibility that scum kills each other at night, it is not guaranteed even then.

Even with 3 mislynches, we have 6 other deaths, and it is there that I think we are more likely to have scum die anyway.  Twice as many chances, after all.

But even with 3 mislynches and 6 town NKs, we start day four with 5 town vs. 6 scum or 6 town vs. 5 scum.  In either case, no single scum faction has a majority, and claiming scum to get help from other scum seems unlikely, and hard to pull off anyway.  Clearly, if it looks like we are heading to this scenario, we try harder (and probably deserve to lose considering the position we are in right now).

You are also FOSing the exact opposite of the people I think deserve to be FOSed.  Scum are more likely to try to obfuscate, distract, and disrupt the broken setup plan.

[Roadrunner7671]

FOS anyone who is taking from my claim a 100% guarantee me/twm/awaclus are town and hiding behind the fact the we have a "great chance of winning" so they don't have to contribute.

I don't think we should random lynch or phone it in. If all the townies besides TWM and mcmcsalot die, it doesn't really matter that they're confirmed town.

[ashersky]

I mean I've got my theories on who scum is and I guess traditional scumhunting is going to feel stupid to everyone so I'm okay with picking some lynch targets, I just hate that if we mislynch a time or two and then the hammer gets snagged away we've wasted multiple wagons ect.

I hate to be Awaclusian here, but really we should do what will result in a win most often, and that is exploiting the broken hole that has been blasted into the setup by you.  (Way to go ruining your brother's setup, btw.)

I'm assuming Robz didn't specifically mean for double-unkillable-ICs to factor into the game, but they're here now, so we have to exploit them.

As for prudence, of course, be prudent.  Watching mcmc is sensible; investigating him might be.  Just confirms things further.

[mcmcsalot]

Yea I guess I just didn't see your math correctly we got the same conclusions ash. I guess I'm just disappointed I expected a fun game trying to catch scum while being unkillable and now I feel like I got hammer game+whack-a-mole. I did not realize exactly how strong this was going to be.

Lastly there is the chance scum has multiple killing powers.

Twm are you aware of how to track players viewing the thread?

[2.71828.....]

Twm are you aware of how to track players viewing the thread?

You can only do this if people haven't turned off being visible online.

You still see the total number of people viewing the thread, but viewing "who's online" will only give usernames of the visible players.

[mcmcsalot]

Twm are you aware of how to track players viewing the thread?

You can only do this if people haven't turned off being visible online.

You still see the total number of people viewing the thread, but viewing "who's online" will only give usernames of the visible players.

That's a thing...