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[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Theory question for anyone who feels like contributing to the game over the next few hours: should we be trying to lynch the other scum right now, or are there arguments for settling on a traitor lynch?

Are the people on the LL wagon of the opinion that he's scum-and-not-traitor?

I feel like we should try to lynch the other scum because now that the traitor has used their they are useless whereas the other scum has a NK as well as the ability to RB. I feel like the other scum is more dangerous so I think we should try to lynch then first.

[Dylan32]

Theory question for anyone who feels like contributing to the game over the next few hours: should we be trying to lynch the other scum right now, or are there arguments for settling on a traitor lynch?

Are the people on the LL wagon of the opinion that he's scum-and-not-traitor?

I feel like we should try to lynch the other scum because now that the traitor has used their they are useless whereas the other scum has a NK as well as the ability to RB. I feel like the other scum is more dangerous so I think we should try to lynch then first.

When the last scum-not-traitor is lynched, the traitor inherits the NK if I'm not mistaken, so no matter which order they are killed, scum has 1 NK per night from now on.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Theory question for anyone who feels like contributing to the game over the next few hours: should we be trying to lynch the other scum right now, or are there arguments for settling on a traitor lynch?

Are the people on the LL wagon of the opinion that he's scum-and-not-traitor?

I feel like we should try to lynch the other scum because now that the traitor has used their they are useless whereas the other scum has a NK as well as the ability to RB. I feel like the other scum is more dangerous so I think we should try to lynch then first.

When the last scum-not-traitor is lynched, the traitor inherits the NK if I'm not mistaken, so no matter which order they are killed, scum has 1 NK per night from now on.

Yes but last scum also has RB ability.

[gkrieg13]

No matter their alignment I don't think anyone would have actually hammered. I know I wouldn't have and I am pretty sure LL wouldn't have ethier.

But you also have to look at what LaLight did instead of hammering.  He started pushing for RR, which is exactly what a partner does when their buddy is closish to being lynched.

Wait... instead of hammering who?

LL could have hammered WW at any point in the whole 10-minute window during which WW was at L-1, between posts #86 and #87...

(And the person who left the wagon at #87 was Robz, who moved his vote to LL).

Possibly, but why would LL (or anyone else) have wanted to hammer WW so early in the day?
It seems somewhat reasonable to me that LL looked for alternative options.

For like the millionth time, I think it is the way LaLight left the wagon, and tried to get another wagon going that he is scummy, not that he didn't hammer WW when given the chance.

I know what you're saying.
I just disagree that it's scummy.

Is it townie or null?

[gkrieg13]

Also I thought Space was a little bit townie for their evaluation of the setup, until I saw the scum QT for newbie mafia, and now it is super duper null for me.

What is it in that QT that makes you think that the likelihood of me sharing town-useful information in the main thread as scum have gone up compared to before?

Your long analysis of wagons. You do big analyses as scum.

I analyse voting patterns every game nowadays. If you want me to post my total coloured-in rolling vote count for this game so far, I can do so later, but I only have that on my laptop, and I won't be back on that till I'm home after choir later tonight. (I assume I can put colour into a code tag, so as not to clog the thread too much, though I can't remember whether I've tried that before).

Anyway, in what way is my paying attention to votes related to how null or otherwise my breakdown of the setup probabilities is?

Well I would say that scum usually doesn't go to that much effort, but clearly you do.

[Dylan32]

Theory question for anyone who feels like contributing to the game over the next few hours: should we be trying to lynch the other scum right now, or are there arguments for settling on a traitor lynch?

Are the people on the LL wagon of the opinion that he's scum-and-not-traitor?

I feel like we should try to lynch the other scum because now that the traitor has used their they are useless whereas the other scum has a NK as well as the ability to RB. I feel like the other scum is more dangerous so I think we should try to lynch then first.

When the last scum-not-traitor is lynched, the traitor inherits the NK if I'm not mistaken, so no matter which order they are killed, scum has 1 NK per night from now on.

Yes but last scum also has RB ability.

That's true, but there is only 1 town PR left, so the odds either of them actually manages to see or block the other is slim anyway. You're right that hitting non-traitor first is strictly better, but only by so much.  I just don't think there's enough of a difference due to the unlikelihood of either PR hitting the other to warrant paying attention to who might be what role rather than just "is the person scum"

[gkrieg13]

I didn't look at your breakdown, but if you just look at the graph, it is obvious that you have the correct setup for this game. Knowing 2 town roles and 2 scum roles makes it really easy to do the rest of the matching by hand and see there aren't any other options.

The real reason this is relevant is that it demonstrates that you didn't worry about it in D1 but you are probably capable of having checked.

Now, maybe that's just because you weren't particularly present, maybe you just trusted that I'm right (working alone a lot, I never trust myself without good reason, because there' nobody else on hand to spot my mistakes), but it could also be that you weren't interested because scum had more information given that they knew about the set of scum roles in the game.

At least, that was my thinking when I asked you the question. Looking at the possibilities and the graph now, marginalising on the scum roles we now know are in the game doesn't really narrow the possible town roles down that much. That's actually a pretty neat feature of the game design :-)

I think there is only one possible setup, when you remove all lines for roles we know exist and match.

To check if you were right, I would've had to build my own simulator, which is not something I want to do the week before the semester ends 

[gkrieg13]

Theory question for anyone who feels like contributing to the game over the next few hours: should we be trying to lynch the other scum right now, or are there arguments for settling on a traitor lynch?

Are the people on the LL wagon of the opinion that he's scum-and-not-traitor?

I don't think we can reasonably differentiate between the two. We should look for both and lynch the one that has the higher chance of being scum.

[gkrieg13]

Theory question for anyone who feels like contributing to the game over the next few hours: should we be trying to lynch the other scum right now, or are there arguments for settling on a traitor lynch?

Are the people on the LL wagon of the opinion that he's scum-and-not-traitor?

I feel like we should try to lynch the other scum because now that the traitor has used their they are useless whereas the other scum has a NK as well as the ability to RB. I feel like the other scum is more dangerous so I think we should try to lynch then first.

I mean the only yhing they can roleblock now is a watcher, which isn't super powerful.

[gkrieg13]

Theory question for anyone who feels like contributing to the game over the next few hours: should we be trying to lynch the other scum right now, or are there arguments for settling on a traitor lynch?

Are the people on the LL wagon of the opinion that he's scum-and-not-traitor?

I feel like we should try to lynch the other scum because now that the traitor has used their they are useless whereas the other scum has a NK as well as the ability to RB. I feel like the other scum is more dangerous so I think we should try to lynch then first.

When the last scum-not-traitor is lynched, the traitor inherits the NK if I'm not mistaken, so no matter which order they are killed, scum has 1 NK per night from now on.

Yes but last scum also has RB ability.

That's true, but there is only 1 town PR left, so the odds either of them actually manages to see or block the other is slim anyway. You're right that hitting non-traitor first is strictly better, but only by so much.  I just don't think there's enough of a difference due to the unlikelihood of either PR hitting the other to warrant paying attention to who might be what role rather than just "is the person scum"

Plus, on top of that, the traitor doesn't know who the mafia are, which makes it much more difficult to find them anyways.

[Awaclus]

Theory question for anyone who feels like contributing to the game over the next few hours: should we be trying to lynch the other scum right now, or are there arguments for settling on a traitor lynch?

Are the people on the LL wagon of the opinion that he's scum-and-not-traitor?

I feel like we should try to lynch the other scum because now that the traitor has used their they are useless whereas the other scum has a NK as well as the ability to RB. I feel like the other scum is more dangerous so I think we should try to lynch then first.

I mean the only yhing they can roleblock now is a watcher, which isn't super powerful.

How is Watcher not super powerful?

I think if we catch scum, we should lynch them regardless of whether we think they are the traitor or the remaining other scum.

[LaLight]

Awaclus is strangely explanative. Gkrieg is fitting his "gkrieg's scum meta in LL head" perfectly.

Guys, let's lynch gk, plz. Especially if he's alive next day.

[LaLight]

Also, Awa tunneled me for 2ish posts and gave up. That's not him. The only time i remember when Awaclus was nice and cool was British Bonkers. I am not doing the same mistake again.

[Dylan32]

Also, Awa tunneled me for 2ish posts and gave up. That's not him. The only time i remember when Awaclus was nice and cool was British Bonkers. I am not doing the same mistake again.

That's because he was tunneling the crap out of me that game

[Dylan32]

Also, is it really tunneling if it was only 2 posts?

[LaLight]

Also, is it really tunneling if it was only 2 posts?

Well, that wasn't. But that was Awaclus' favorite "LaLight is obvscum, won't tell why". I call that tunneling

[Awaclus]

Awaclus is strangely explanative. Gkrieg is fitting his "gkrieg's scum meta in LL head" perfectly.

Guys, let's lynch gk, plz. Especially if he's alive next day.

Also, Awa tunneled me for 2ish posts and gave up. That's not him. The only time i remember when Awaclus was nice and cool was British Bonkers. I am not doing the same mistake again.

Oh yeah, I'm super explanative. I've explained...

Almost forgot this one:

In other news, these are apparently "2ish posts":

Vote: LaLight

Vote: LaLight

What antitown thing did I do this time?

What antitown thing did you not do this time?

Do you want a list?

Sure.

So you admit that you have done all the other anti-town things.

Funny fact: i do like your play when I am town

I guess that means you don't like it here.

Funny fact: i do like your play when I am town

I guess that means you don't like it here.

Seriously, why this time?

Why what?

Do you think I am scum or Traitor?

Yes.

I scumread everyone on my wagon

Ok.

And still voting for LL is apparently "gave up".

[Dylan32]

lololol

[LaLight]

Awaclus is strangely explanative. Gkrieg is fitting his "gkrieg's scum meta in LL head" perfectly.

Guys, let's lynch gk, plz. Especially if he's alive next day.

Also, Awa tunneled me for 2ish posts and gave up. That's not him. The only time i remember when Awaclus was nice and cool was British Bonkers. I am not doing the same mistake again.

Oh yeah, I'm super explanative. I've explained...

Almost forgot this one:

In other news, these are apparently "2ish posts":

Vote: LaLight

Vote: LaLight

What antitown thing did I do this time?

What antitown thing did you not do this time?

Do you want a list?

Sure.

So you admit that you have done all the other anti-town things.

Funny fact: i do like your play when I am town

I guess that means you don't like it here.

Funny fact: i do like your play when I am town

I guess that means you don't like it here.

Seriously, why this time?

Why what?

Do you think I am scum or Traitor?

Yes.

I scumread everyone on my wagon

Ok.

And still voting for LL is apparently "gave up".

I honestly forgot most of this marvellous stuff.
Awaclus, if you're town, don't you think you're biased on me? Will you reconsider if I flip town?

[LaLight]

You say reads, gut feel etc. is false science. But you're wrong now. Okay, bad example, you were wrong about TWM in NM10. Why? How came?

[LaLight]

Antitown along with bad town play =/= scum

[Dylan32]

Antitown along with bad town play =/= scum

But, you could argue lynching antitown and bad town play actually gives a net positive for town in some situations.

[Dylan32]

Antitown along with bad town play =/= scum

But, you could argue lynching antitown and bad town play actually gives a net positive for town in some situations.

Although, of course the best thing would be to just not be antitown and playing badly.

[LaLight]

Antitown along with bad town play =/= scum

But, you could argue lynching antitown and bad town play actually gives a net positive for town in some situations.

That's true. But you should be open for searching scum along with it, not just "let's lynch LL, he's bad town player"

[LaLight]

Antitown along with bad town play =/= scum

But, you could argue lynching antitown and bad town play actually gives a net positive for town in some situations.

Although, of course the best thing would be to just not be antitown and playing badly.

Oh i wish it was as easy as you put it