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Author Topic: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Game over.  (Read 164649 times)

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LaLight

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1375 on: October 07, 2016, 03:24:41 am »

well, let's look at each night from the perspective of every player.

N1.
WW doesn't use vig
schadd doesn't use doc
RR doesn't use cop
then
1st scenario:
Doctor (Joseph/Gkrieg) chooses SS
Scum roleblocks him
Scum doesn't strongman
scum has 1-shot strongman
2nd scenario:
Doctor chooses SS
Scum strongmans
scum!rb roleblocks someone else
3rd scenario:
Both docs choose ss
Scum strongmans
Scum!rb roleblocks doc
N2:
1st scenario:
WW kills SA
Schadd protects Faust
Doctor protects faust
Scum uses strongman (1-shot?)
Scum RBs WW
2nd scenario:
WW is scum
Two of the docs protect faust (Joseph/Gkrieg/Schadd)
Scum uses strongman
Scum RBs no-one important
3rd scenario:
Same as second but scum doesn't use Strongman

Therefore: faust is safe and we don't know if scum has strongman.

N3:
1st scenario:
Doc heals faust
Scum uses strongman
2nd scenario:
Both docs choose faust, scum RB's one and strongmans another.
2nd scenario:
One doc heals faust
Scum roleblocks Doc and don't use strongman.


So:
We can see that scum can not have the strongman.
WW is not necessarily town
Schadd is not necessarily town
There is some probability that both Joseph and GKrieg are doctors, but the one was always roleblocked and the second was strongmaned (Except N2). This makes WW and Schadd a team of scums. The third member definitely would claim VT so II or JR.

I didn't consult the setup, doing this post so I may be wrong slightly in some of the scenarios.
The most likely scum-team for me personally is Joseph-Schadd-JReggie/Iguana and mafia doesn't have strongman so we have 1-shot vig, Doctor and 1-shot cop which is CVDTTT as I remember.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1376 on: October 07, 2016, 04:28:26 am »

Check the setup - with 2 or fewer T rolls, the scum team has a multi-shot strongman.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1377 on: October 07, 2016, 09:16:48 am »

And if this is true, then scum team is {JReggie, Iguana, [lying PR]}.
I'd just propose lynching those two first. And in the process we can actually look at the PRs and their behavior.

vote: JReggie

Lol
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

LaLight

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1378 on: October 07, 2016, 09:19:34 am »

And if this is true, then scum team is {JReggie, Iguana, [lying PR]}.
I'd just propose lynching those two first. And in the process we can actually look at the PRs and their behavior.

vote: JReggie

Lol

I've already proven I may be wrong :)
I don't know, you're so null to me.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1379 on: October 07, 2016, 09:19:45 am »



I didn't consult the setup, doing this post so I may be wrong slightly in some of the scenarios.
The most likely scum-team for me personally is Joseph-Schadd-JReggie/Iguana and mafia doesn't have strongman so we have 1-shot vig, Doctor and 1-shot cop which is CVDTTT as I remember.

Masons. We have M. As far as I can tell, the only way we don't have a strongman is if the entire scum team is in the claimed PRs.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

iguanaiguana

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1380 on: October 07, 2016, 09:20:29 am »

And if this is true, then scum team is {JReggie, Iguana, [lying PR]}.
I'd just propose lynching those two first. And in the process we can actually look at the PRs and their behavior.

vote: JReggie

Lol

I've already proven I may be wrong :)
I don't know, you're so null to me.

Then after the game, you will be able to see my signs of being town better! That's something to be glad about since we are almost certainly losing this game.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

LaLight

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1381 on: October 07, 2016, 09:21:12 am »



I didn't consult the setup, doing this post so I may be wrong slightly in some of the scenarios.
The most likely scum-team for me personally is Joseph-Schadd-JReggie/Iguana and mafia doesn't have strongman so we have 1-shot vig, Doctor and 1-shot cop which is CVDTTT as I remember.

Masons. We have M. As far as I can tell, the only way we don't have a strongman is if the entire scum team is in the claimed PRs.

omg I completely forgot about masons. Yeah, Strongman is here.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1382 on: October 07, 2016, 10:29:20 am »



I didn't consult the setup, doing this post so I may be wrong slightly in some of the scenarios.
The most likely scum-team for me personally is Joseph-Schadd-JReggie/Iguana and mafia doesn't have strongman so we have 1-shot vig, Doctor and 1-shot cop which is CVDTTT as I remember.

Masons. We have M. As far as I can tell, the only way we don't have a strongman is if the entire scum team is in the claimed PRs.

This is also possible though. WW schadd and Joseph could've just forgotten to submit a kill N2.  Plus they could be hoping that people do what LaLight is doing and just lynching among the VTs so that they just win flawlessly. I mean the chance of us lynching three times in the PRs in a row is quite unlikely so it isn't even a bad strategy
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Joseph2302

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1383 on: October 07, 2016, 12:37:13 pm »



I didn't consult the setup, doing this post so I may be wrong slightly in some of the scenarios.
The most likely scum-team for me personally is Joseph-Schadd-JReggie/Iguana and mafia doesn't have strongman so we have 1-shot vig, Doctor and 1-shot cop which is CVDTTT as I remember.

Masons. We have M. As far as I can tell, the only way we don't have a strongman is if the entire scum team is in the claimed PRs.

This is also possible though. WW schadd and Joseph could've just forgotten to submit a kill N2.  Plus they could be hoping that people do what LaLight is doing and just lynching among the VTs so that they just win flawlessly. I mean the chance of us lynching three times in the PRs in a row is quite unlikely so it isn't even a bad strategy
Really? You think 3 scum would just forget?
That's just an awful argument to be pursuing.
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LaLight

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1384 on: October 08, 2016, 03:21:18 am »

prod: schadd
prod: JReggie
prod: WitherWeaver
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Joseph2302

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1385 on: October 08, 2016, 04:09:20 am »

Pretty sure Gkrieg is scum right now.

SS was the obvious N1 target to experienced player, as he's one of the best town players. This is why I thought one of WW/gkrieg must be scum, as someone experienced must have decided on that NK.

N2 & 3, faust was the obvious kill, as he's the IC, so towniest player.
Thus, all these kills have been to the mafia textbook, suggesting an experienced player was running them.

WW's claim must be true, since it was so barbaric.

Also, someone is definitely lying about being a doctor, and it's convenient that gkrieg just copied my claim. He then tried to claim that all 3 scum could be claiming PRs, which seems ridiculously unlikely.
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J Reggie

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1386 on: October 08, 2016, 08:11:30 am »

I'm not going to be sound much this weekend, so don't lynch me as a result of that please.

Joseph2302

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1387 on: October 08, 2016, 08:28:29 am »

I'm not going to be sound much this weekend, so don't lynch me as a result of that please.
We'll probably lynch you D5.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1388 on: October 08, 2016, 09:37:26 am »

I favor a Joseph lynch today I think.
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Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

LaLight

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1389 on: October 08, 2016, 09:44:00 am »

I favor a Joseph lynch today I think.

Either do I probably.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1390 on: October 08, 2016, 11:03:28 am »

Won't be able to do anything until tomorrow.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1391 on: October 08, 2016, 11:18:46 am »

Pretty sure Gkrieg is scum right now.

SS was the obvious N1 target to experienced player, as he's one of the best town players. This is why I thought one of WW/gkrieg must be scum, as someone experienced must have decided on that NK.

N2 & 3, faust was the obvious kill, as he's the IC, so towniest player.
Thus, all these kills have been to the mafia textbook, suggesting an experienced player was running them.

WW's claim must be true, since it was so barbaric.

Also, someone is definitely lying about being a doctor, and it's convenient that gkrieg just copied my claim. He then tried to claim that all 3 scum could be claiming PRs, which seems ridiculously unlikely.

That's funny. I thought all of the kills have been very newb like. Do you really think that I would copy your claim as scum? 

I'm not trying to claim that all three scum are PRs just that it isn't out of the picture. I was trying to see if we knew that exactly one PR is scum, but it is possible that there are 1, 2, 3 scum in the PRs, which means that we shouldn't just lynch out of the VTs today because of higher probability , which is what LaLight was suggesting we do
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gkrieg13

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1392 on: October 08, 2016, 11:19:27 am »



I didn't consult the setup, doing this post so I may be wrong slightly in some of the scenarios.
The most likely scum-team for me personally is Joseph-Schadd-JReggie/Iguana and mafia doesn't have strongman so we have 1-shot vig, Doctor and 1-shot cop which is CVDTTT as I remember.

Masons. We have M. As far as I can tell, the only way we don't have a strongman is if the entire scum team is in the claimed PRs.

This is also possible though. WW schadd and Joseph could've just forgotten to submit a kill N2.  Plus they could be hoping that people do what LaLight is doing and just lynching among the VTs so that they just win flawlessly. I mean the chance of us lynching three times in the PRs in a row is quite unlikely so it isn't even a bad strategy
Really? You think 3 scum would just forget?
That's just an awful argument to be pursuing.

Look at mistborn mafia. There I think 5 people forgot.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1393 on: October 08, 2016, 11:37:41 am »



I didn't consult the setup, doing this post so I may be wrong slightly in some of the scenarios.
The most likely scum-team for me personally is Joseph-Schadd-JReggie/Iguana and mafia doesn't have strongman so we have 1-shot vig, Doctor and 1-shot cop which is CVDTTT as I remember.

Masons. We have M. As far as I can tell, the only way we don't have a strongman is if the entire scum team is in the claimed PRs.

This is also possible though. WW schadd and Joseph could've just forgotten to submit a kill N2.  Plus they could be hoping that people do what LaLight is doing and just lynching among the VTs so that they just win flawlessly. I mean the chance of us lynching three times in the PRs in a row is quite unlikely so it isn't even a bad strategy
Really? You think 3 scum would just forget?
That's just an awful argument to be pursuing.

Look at mistborn mafia. There I think 5 people forgot.

More people is greater chance, actually.  Since you're discussing a lot and waiting for responses, you don't realize the deadlines come up.

Here, though, we shouldn't consider such a situation too seriously.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1394 on: October 08, 2016, 11:44:23 am »



I didn't consult the setup, doing this post so I may be wrong slightly in some of the scenarios.
The most likely scum-team for me personally is Joseph-Schadd-JReggie/Iguana and mafia doesn't have strongman so we have 1-shot vig, Doctor and 1-shot cop which is CVDTTT as I remember.

Masons. We have M. As far as I can tell, the only way we don't have a strongman is if the entire scum team is in the claimed PRs.

This is also possible though. WW schadd and Joseph could've just forgotten to submit a kill N2.  Plus they could be hoping that people do what LaLight is doing and just lynching among the VTs so that they just win flawlessly. I mean the chance of us lynching three times in the PRs in a row is quite unlikely so it isn't even a bad strategy
Really? You think 3 scum would just forget?
That's just an awful argument to be pursuing.

Look at mistborn mafia. There I think 5 people forgot.

More people is greater chance, actually.  Since you're discussing a lot and waiting for responses, you don't realize the deadlines come up.

Here, though, we shouldn't consider such a situation too seriously.

I agree. I was just saying that it was actually possible even if the likelihood is very small. But it is enough that I think I would rather lynch among the PRs, because we know at least one is lying.
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schadd

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1395 on: October 08, 2016, 12:47:44 pm »

rereading everyone rn. until that's finished, here's a nugget

shortest character combination that uniquely returns each person in ctrl-f:
gkrieg: "adf"
iguana iguana: "sku"
j reggie: "dcl"
joseph: ", 5"
lalight: "eyl" [as long as he is a moneylender, after which it becomes "me: l"]
schadd: "kj"
witherweaver: "h3" [as long as no one quotes jsh]
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LaLight

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1396 on: October 08, 2016, 06:19:49 pm »

rereading everyone rn. until that's finished, here's a nugget

shortest character combination that uniquely returns each person in ctrl-f:
gkrieg: "adf"
iguana iguana: "sku"
j reggie: "dcl"
joseph: ", 5"
lalight: "eyl" [as long as he is a moneylender, after which it becomes "me: l"]
schadd: "kj"
witherweaver: "h3" [as long as no one quotes jsh]

Now it'll find this post. Thanks, anyway!

Still waiting for your rereads.
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schadd

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1397 on: October 08, 2016, 06:32:59 pm »


  gkrieg
 pros: 377. 627 seems like a proper reaction. 728, 732 are good positions, seems concerned for town; he is misconstruing a bit what the pledge was, though. 827 seems suspicious that the j reggie wagon dropped, also rightfully uncertain about sa. same in 843
 cons: didn't respond to 370, 474
bonus:
  iguana iguana
 pros: 368 + quoted were fun. gkrieg was self-critical-ish as well. 375 was against the grain. 445 seemed a tad more interested in helping me than seeming to help me; whether this is a pro ofc depends on whether i'm scum. 498 double went against the grain, especially considering both of those were on the verge of going through.
 cons: 323 uses an unnecessarily broad definition of fluff. 377 (though he responded perhaps adequately in 418). 417 is a bit vague. 513 town shouldn't really be concerned what the source is for things that are true. still don't like the D2 drama, but alcohol et al. seem to explain it reasonably.
 bonus: {360} he does that thing that a scared cat does where it makes itself look bigger. this is the sort of thing that i would expect an ic to do; is this a town!ii thing? 516 for those of you at home, beep is what iguanas say in schadnd
  j reggie
 pros: 413 (but impersonal), 588 i guess, dunno that they were easy mislynches though. 600 means we can't blame scum for pushing the wagon away.
 cons: 447,8 he seems to interested in defending himself, inflates the sense of danger for himself as well; compound that with his defense in 501. {564, 569} he didn't respond to, {535, 800} "i'm town because i'm town." 574 seems pretty trash.
 bonus: {152, 342} perhaps unnecessarily defensive of joseph. both igu and gkrieg were as well, at around the same time as 342, interestingly. 585 was the strong reads that he claimed to have (aside, do you remember the intention behind "achoo"?), 424 sorta discounts an igu-j r team
  joseph
 pros: 559. 674 thanx.
 cons: 455+6; i generally read "kill (conf!town)" + reason and "don't kill (conf!town)" without reason as scummy. 653 ..but not ss, somehow? 736 tries to emphasize the towniness of the thing that he says. 826 is sort of refusing to make a case
 bonus: 377
  lalight
 pros: 298 (not the misunderstanding, but the investigating someone with a sort of neutral tone), 398 is also quaintly investigative, 438 since ss and faust are probably good enough town that you wouldn't want to defend them at all as scum. 553 seems innocent, perhaps 571 does as well since deadline was coming up
 cons: 606 seems like a doctor breadcrumb; he has since claimed vt. especially weird that this didn't get him nightkilled, when ss did a really suspicious hammer. ss pointed out why 633 is odd.
 bonus: 491 is a funny attitude that i can't say goes either way
  witherweaver
 pros: 104 quietly promoted interaction, 324 was against the grain, 592 questioning someone without looking that hard into it seems town. 682 is consistent at least.
 cons: 420 is silly. 607 is odd that close to the deadline, but maybe he meant days later. 692 was a bit of a sidestep.
 bonus: 466 is the sort of post that he makes for most of D1. given that he doesn't do it as much later, i don't think it's that bad. 713, he freudian slip'd rsp for rvs. unfortunately that doesn't mean anything at all.
  digging up graves: 545 funny that both of them ended up getting lynched; 547 funny they're still alive and sorta top suspects


part 2, uh, later. this is boring.
conclusions from up to ~900: lalight, gkrieg, iguana seem pretty textbook town. j reggie and joseph had a sort of medium cloud of suspicion hanging over them the whole time, which i would think is hard to keep constant without dying; people were sort of at the same suspicion level for s-a and it did not take much prompting for that to turn into a death.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1398 on: October 08, 2016, 06:44:01 pm »

Ok gonna try to get some rereads done.

schadd:

everyone is giving me ok vibes but i don't like that mail-mi was the 4th person to vote for me (though that might have just been an Out Of Character Joke) and then said a bunch mercurial stuff


so, uh, vote: mail-mi


also, how bad is it to say things like i also want to not be voting faust because we are scumfriends that were roommates in mafia school and also mail-mi told me to vote for him in our mason thing? asking for a friend

This is his vote on mail-mi.

also, i should clarify, when i said "everyone is giving me ok vibes" i meant "i don't know what i'm supposed to interpret as scum or townie and also nobody tell me"

I think this is townie from schadd.  He seems to have a much better feel on the game now though.  What has changed since this post?

why does there want to be wagons? what is the consensus on lynching someone right out the gates all the way

Just another example.  A lot of D1 is like this for schadd.

i'm still on the boat of voting mail-mi. it seems as though his approach is to brush me off as a dope rather than address the thing that i said and i kinda fancy myself not a dope


i don't have any other stances

His stance on mail-mi.

vote: lalight

my only real thing is that i get concerned when people agree with another person's thing and don't say anything else and
agreed. Intent to hammer
strikes that chord. and he hasn't elaborated on it. i'm not sure whether it helps or hurts that he decided not to hammer someone in that situation


also, incidentally, i'm finding it difficult to say things that are towny. in theory i should be completely transparent because i'm not hiding anything (lmao!) but if i were some other guy reading my posts i would be like "wow what a loser that doesn't know what to do with his scummy self and is just trying to be present but unhelpful in conversation." so, this is me levelling with you guys or something. imagine that you're playing lego and i squat next to you and say "i care. i really do."

This is a very townie post from schadd.  He seems newb!selfaware and not scum!selfaware.

i tried to edit it and then i quoted it and then i posted it and then i remembered that you're not supposed to edit


vote: joseph

Votes for Joseph

I'm also starting to wonder if schadd is scum. I have no idea what his meta will be like, but I feel like there's a lot of fluff in his posts as well so to speak.
if not for fluff i probably wouldn't be saying much at all, because of the not knowing things and stuff. i assume that that it's better than not talking but who knows

This is also an important quote from him.  I just don't think you do something like this as scum.

schadd -- Mild scum maybe, if he knows people here from other forum interactions?
only as much as the next guy. the scumfriends thing with faust was because i voted him and then stopped voting for him and the mafia school thing seemed like a nice narrative
@JReggie: Howcome nobody's made you add unique text to your profile to make you easier to search for?
they are the only duke i think


vote: j reggie is where i stand.
Yeah, people really seem to have forgotten about this game. Let's get a lynch in before the deadline because I probably won't be around then.
real? 6 pages in 4ish days seems perfectly fine, judging from cursory glances at the other ones. this might, however, stem from an actual personal time constraint. such is online mafia.
...and since then not many of the other posts have things that are really capable of refutation (or agreement, for that matter) and are sorta non-committal, as igu argued.
  from non-mafia knowledge, i would tend to agree with igu and the version of ss that says "the case is good." also, either way, j reg seems like a fun person to put the spotlight on

This is really his first big post.  I think this is also townie.  I feel like I have confirmation bias at this point.  schadd really just seems town.

I realized that my case on J Reggie was based on a vague memory of a previous scum game of his, so I decided to dig up the quote.

It is here: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=15591.msg624261#msg624261

In Duel Mafia, scum!J Reggie takes a few stabs at scummy looking townies before giving up on having scumreads entirely. Before the end, he just says that he has no useful scumreads and doesn't even believe in the counter-wagon. Of course, in some ways he's being honest. He knew e was town, and had no useful scumreads. Odd though that he wouldn't put the effort in to make a case against e and try to get people off of him.

Anyway, in a non-obvious way, J Reggie's half-hearted stabs at this game and complete lack of pushing the game forward read very similarly to that scum game.

Could I be wrong and he be town? Sure, but I feel better about this case than most D1 cases that I push. I'm definitely not changing my vote.

I started the wagon on mail-mi. I still think he's scum.
i'm pretty sure that's a bold-faced lie about bold-faced votes. you were the fifth vote on m-m, and i dunno if you can say that you started the wagon in the context of this post

This is also a good post.  Looks like he is honestly scum hunting. 


♪it's just another perfect night♪

I guess there is no use delaying this, because mafia probably will figure it out and it will only cost us time today.

I am silverspawn's partner.

This should be obvious to anyone rereading D1.
i don't suppose there's any reason to deny this. if it's a lie then you're just communicating to a random person that you're scum and i'm sure people have gotten that far already. i was getting a somewhat strong scum read on you and ss towards the end, so. potato potahto.


question: are you allowed to say (or quote, even) what you and ss said in the mason qt?


also, does the fact that only one person died mean that someone doctored? if i understand the setup correctly, there is supposed to be 3 scum and two people die nightly. if somebody did doctor, any speculations on who was saved? all things considered, the very likely candidate is faust; as i mentioned, they seemed maybe not scummy but definitely like they knew something, and scum may have presumed that to mean they were masons. in which case, silverspawn also assumed that they knew—this (following) post makes more sense with that in mind.
I'm afraid mail-mi will flip town and then I'll get NKd as the least suspicious person and will be out of the game :(
this is so spicy, you guys. we are gonna have to reread silverspawn a lot of times.


Also schadd is not very useful, as I recall he has a little amount of posts and what he has is not telling us anything.
:(
should i do a big readpost or something?

Oh ya then D2 he had this thing.  I mean he really would've had to been coached pretty heavily, which just doesn't really seem his style.


i'm also incidentally pretty suspicious of me.
Really, because I'm not.
If you were scum, you would have asked your "Do 2 people die at night?" question in the mafia QT, rather than here.
whoops! townslip

This kind of neutralizes the last thing.  Pointing out your own townslip is kinda scummy.

he had a sort of a habit of snarking at/refuting that spaceguy summed here
whoops, that was supposed to be this link


/pledge, i guess? i'm not sure that this logic holds up:
My big problem with the pledge is that everyone should have better reads than faust because they have more information than faust.  Every person knows the alignment of 2 people (themselves and faust), so their reads have a higher probability of being correct than faust's. 
...since only 6 people know the alignment of 2 people, and a certain 3 people know the alignment of everybody. it's not about information, it's about, ceteris paribus and nothing particularly compelling against any certain person, we agree to sheep the person who cannot have any ulterior motives (esp. because now it is especially easy for scum to form a majority). faust, incidentally, seems to be a fortunate person for this position.


i'm not sure, though, and other people have thought this out further than i have and also experienced the endgame situation theorized here. at the very least, this shouldn't really be the focus of our attention until we are confident that there isn't more information to be gathered.


Going to bed now, but a serious, thought-provoking question before I do.

If you were scum, who would you have killed N1?
i'm so town that even if i were scum i wouldn't lynch anyone.
i mean, uh, probably ss. it's hard to say in hindsight, of course, but i and surely some other people (read: joseph's readlist, also this one) had ss and faust in the "what do you know that i don't" category, and since scum knew they were innocent, that probably meant that they indeed knew something. that, and, you know, ss is good at this game and stuff. that said, it's weird that it happened right at the peak of suspicion for him (he just hammered mail-mi!) and, well, killing a mason seems to be a not-good idea. this leads me to an inkling that it is a bit of a personal lynch rather than an empirical one. who here has the most experience?


i haven't given any formalized reads yet. names accentuated in purple, which i think is allowed


  kinda: ww(still, didn't reply to the thing that i said!), igu (seems like a clumsy persona for a committed scum, but why would he refuse to be replaced? are we seeing drunk!scum!igu or something), rr (hasn't bitten in the strategy/analysis of the board like the rest of us fish and has otherwise not really said much that i can remember, which is especially odd considering this post)


  merits investigation:lalight (has said a hell of a lot, at least), joseph (has had some unfortunate votes, don't like his first vote in the context of my current one, below, but otherwise kinda whatever)


  i'm okay with them rn: gkrieg (enduring attitude is 'get on it people!' and hasn't had really any bs. he did parrot the bad joseph vote. though, now that i think about it, it's sorta forgivable? faust did seem weird, and i really don't know how to read the mail-mi situation), space (smells like they have the same approach to the game that i do at the moment which is a plus, for me at least. i appreciate their effort to hammer out a few people [i.e., me and ww thus far] rather than comment on game state), j reggie (i was pretty fervently anti-him d1. don't really know what to think at the moment but i'm not really suspicious)


  me: schadd (5 stars, would eat again)


  faust: faust (the pledge thing would have probably maybe brought the actual mason out of the woodwork at this point. do other people care about what went on in the qt? i guess, is there any position ss took that he didn't post publicly?)


vote: roadrunner since i want him to be under the spotlight, he has maybe produced the least information combined with being kinda suspicious


at the time of this post, half of the rules post is a link to day 2.

Reads list.  So he kinda starts the wagon on RR as well.  Interesting.  He starts it as just trying to put him under the spotlight.

so. i'm still very much suspicious of joseph, and i said yesterday that i was gonna vote for him. that said, he said that he was gonna be limited access and i only just noticed that now, so i guess that's on hold.


i am also content to
vote: ww
...since he has seemed pretty unhelpful and hasn't really responded to the several things space-a and i said

Votes for WW.  I'm kinda losing steam at this point. 

oh also i would still very very much like to put rr under some duress

keeps pushing RR without the vote on him.

hey, seems good a time as any.


i am sophie, the 1-shot doctor. i saved faust last night

good claim, good timing.  The claim seems good and not scummy.


WW: 1-shot vig, who shot Space last night
schadd: 1-shot doc, saved faust last night
   i think there is a small but perhaps non-trivial chance that ww is lying. in the case that the scums know that there are between 2 and 3 PRs, they might have elected to not use the strongman in order to gather information, and when faust didn't die (you're welcome, maybe) that was an all-clear that it is CEM and there are no vigilantes, and thus no-one to contest the vig thing. if anyone else knows they have they have a PR (esp. cop, since it can't explain faust's survival), then they will know this scenario to be impossible.
   in the case of 4-6 power roles, it gets more entropic (what with roleblockers and junk), and scum!ww might feel too uncertain about claiming vig (though i wouldn't be surprised if he had somewhat precise probablistic stuff that he wasn't willing to share).
   these scenarios seem somewhat maybe unlikely; from my perspective (i.e., given MEC or so), the first one i think has a 1-in-8 chance, and the current situation that we're concocting to account for ww's claim seems, well, pretty hard to compute. which of these gets shaved off by occam's razor? this is the part where probability analysis would really help town and also be super boring.


  pros, for ww's case: the breadcrumb definitely only helps his case. that said, i perhaps wouldn't put it past scum!him to do that just to see if it would become useful.


  cons, for ww's case: he really seemed to skip past the part where he provided a lot of evidence for the claim (considering that there is nothing that happened N2 that would make more sense with a vig) and went right to the implications part. perhaps the fact that we have collectively been willing to accept ww's claim suggests that we do indeed have a bunch of folks with PRs.


   maybe i as well didn't provide any evidence for my claim, but also, uh, read the parenthetical in the last paragraph. and i don't suppose people would have trouble believing me if i said that i sorta forgot about my medical degree until D2ish, which is why there aren't any breadcrumbs or anything.


   also, crapcrud hecking heckfarts. roadrunner seemed so scummy. it is not doing me any favors that i was the first person to vote for the two lynches on their respective days

This post is also good.  I like his reaction to RR flipping town.

I'm gonna post this so I don't lose it because the posts I'm quoting are being slow to load.  More to follow probably

PPEs
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gkrieg13

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Re: M86: Ghibli Mafia - Day 4.
« Reply #1399 on: October 08, 2016, 07:04:07 pm »

He also has a lot of statistics posts.  Do you have a math background?  Just curious.

  the one described above: 8%. not completely disjoint with the previous case, though, so maybe, like, 7%?
that should say 'not disjoint with the following case'


there are probably several other such errors but i'm not reading that post again


anyway, i don't really suspect the anemone, at least as much as the rest of you seem to. D1 and 2 i think i'm on record as saying so, and today they've been trying to work through the probabilities &c (which is the way to go! see above).
  one fun but very, very minor point against, though:
If WW is a vig, he was almost certainly a lucky block by scum, because town has a rather low likelihood of having a RB, whereas scum is guaranteed one (since we know we have at least two non-T rolls in the setup).
(emphasis added)


i would suspect the people currently on-wagon except i can imagine the position as town that want to push a seemingly obvious lynch (majorities are hard rn) and also not really concerned with probability, etc.


anyway, i currently don't have strong reads, sadly.
  joseph has seemed yucky the whole game, but igu (and maybe others?) said early on that that's just the way he is. he called the claims into question which is a plus.
  j reggie is the opinion of faust, and i reread j reggie and he has been defensive and snarky, but not really all that scummy, to me. that said, i'll sheep faust eventually if need be.
  igu has also seemed hard for me to figure out. he is probably my biggest scumread atm, which isn't saying much, but i don't really like his attitude recently (emphasizing other people's town opinion on him, also seeming confident about the role situation without commenting on it much) but he has the same sort of opinions as me (excepting sa)
  lalight is my other marginal read that is even more inarticulate. the last day, though, he has been working concretely at the board state stuff and also doubted ww's claim. don't like that he townread rr yesterday though
  gkrieg was quite the townie to everyone d1 and d2. he has said some goofyish stuff today (or, rather, stuff that i didn't get) but the towniness still holds
  ww is super hard to read. i really wouldn't put it past him at all to think to fake vig if it's MCDTTT
  hi faust!

Another reads post.

Well J Reggie is scum and I'm happy to switch back to him if you think Space is a bad call.
can you, like, make a case at all? your D3 reads more scummy to me than his but maybe i'm confusing scummy with trumpy

More scum hunting

Sorry if that is a condescending post but I found your insinuation that I am casting votes for no reason to be pretty damn insulting.
what? you are maybe in the wrong thread.
and also perhaps i might find it insulting that you think i've been ignoring the wagon analysis but you know. that's not what we do here.


the thing that i had been more concerned about is how you seem to have a sense of urgency, and, like, seeming incredibly confident about your reads. but i dunno.


anyway, vote: j reggie

i should probably be sheeping faust, since there's nothing he knows that i don't know except for whether i'm scum, and also because it's weak reads & inexperience v. experience and a pretty strong point of evidence.


the other thing is that igu is the only one that has really looked into j reggie since faust's post, especially considering how important wagon analysis supposedly is (and that s-a isn't supported by any, it would seem). i'm complicit in that but you know.


ppe: yea. i also think sa should still claim, maybe. but the only roles left seem to be doctor (which shouldn't claim) and maybe, like, cop or something

votes for J Reggie.


I mean if we lynch SpaceAnemone and they flip scum and then lynch me tomorrow it'll be lylo. If we lynch SpaceAnemone and they flip town and then lynch me tomorrow we lose. If we lynch me today I'd recommend not insta-lynching SpaceAnemone tomorrow because it'll be lylo.
argh, you keep doing that. you are currently trying to argue that you're town, so don't use the implications of you being town as evidence for you being town.

#784: "Schadd townslips again and again" -- not really. And I'm still deeply suspicious that his first "townslip" was a set-up. I'm really suspicious of how LL and Joseph push the "schadd is townslipping argument" around here.
i get how the first one (wherein i thought two people were supposed to die each night) might seem suspicious, given that it's kind of a weird assumption. however, this was the first mafia game that i watched, and as you can see, two people died each night (i linked it at the end of the first night.)
  and as far as making up words (such as townslip), seriously read schadnd. if you want, i can compile a list of the, like, 50 words that i made up.
  i do think that it's a bit odd that joseph pointed them out in a positive light, though, uh three times. we're not masons but uh you knew that already.


#1191: "Also, @Schadd and @Joseph, if you are to pick up out of those two, who do you vote?" -- I'm leaning towards a LaLight, Schadd & Joseph scumteam, though if so then this is quite brave.
well, we were the two people that were neither voting for one of the main wagons nor the target of them at the time.


agree that lalight townreading rr but then shortly after putting him to l-1 seems pretty sus. he has seemed hasty and indecisive the whole time, but i'm not sure if that comes from being used to irl mafia.


It's not that strong of a possibility that both you and J Reggie are both town.
how are they conditional? a few people have been seemingly making that assumption

This guy is town.  I'm probably just going to read the rest without quoting, because it has been very slow for me right now.

So ya.  Definitely don't want to lynch schadd today. He has some interesting interactions with J Reggie, so definitely need to look at that again if J Reggie flips scum. 
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