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[LaLight]

So what are we at now?  Looks like

SpaceAnemone (3): Witherweaver, gkrieg13, LaLight
gkrieg13 (1): Joseph2302
J Reggie (3): faust, Iguana,  schadd

Not Voting (2): SpaceAnemone, J Reggie,


Why is Joseph voting for Gkrieg?

Ftfy

I don't remember either

[SpaceAnemone]

I think you should claim.

If faust says so then I will. Otherwise I'd really rather not say anything else that scum might somehow use against me to push through a hammer before I can even read things properly and post my own thoughts.

Or I'll claim now immediately if everyone else in the game can please ascribe lots of scum points to anyone joining my wagon between me claiming and being able to read and post properly? That way it doesn't look like I'm wanting thinking time about what I'm claiming. Does that work?

[schadd]

we'll wait

[ashersky]

Vote Count 3.4:

SpaceAnemone (3): Witherweaver, gkrieg13, LaLight
gkrieg13 (1): Joseph2302
J Reggie (3): faust, igu, schadd

Not Voting (2): SpaceAnemone, J Reggie

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 3 ends on October 9 at 10:00 a.m.

[gkrieg13]

I think claiming here would be good.

[Witherweaver]

I think you should claim.

If faust says so then I will. Otherwise I'd really rather not say anything else that scum might somehow use against me to push through a hammer before I can even read things properly and post my own thoughts.

Or I'll claim now immediately if everyone else in the game can please ascribe lots of scum points to anyone joining my wagon between me claiming and being able to read and post properly? That way it doesn't look like I'm wanting thinking time about what I'm claiming. Does that work?

I think claim now.

[SpaceAnemone]

Huh.. I'd put my phone away for a while after I'd seen the first response to my claiming question. Two more experienced people have now say to claim, so I guess I will. If I'm lynched before I later then be suspicious of them! Anyway, I'm VT... sorry if you'd hope for something more juicy to analyse :-(

[schadd]

that's plenty  juicy.


oh also, yeah, it totally makes sense that they should claim now. if they're town, they shouldn't need time to think about it, etc.

[SpaceAnemone]

If you are town then this lynch is your own fault. You should have been looking into the unknowns (Reggie, Joseph, Gkrieg, uh me) and trying to figure out which ones of them are most likely to be scum.

Owch! I did reads on Joseph at post #883 (where I said I'd vote for him if it came to it) and J Reggie at #905 (where I said I thought there must be better scum options out there for find), so it's not like I'm sitting here doing nothing!

Anyway, this post mainly to say I'm back at my computer and starting more new reads.

[J Reggie]

ii - why do you think if one of me or SpaceAnemone flips scum the other will be lynched?

[J Reggie]

I mean if we lynch SpaceAnemone and they flip scum and then lynch me tomorrow it'll be lylo. If we lynch SpaceAnemone and they flip town and then lynch me tomorrow we lose. If we lynch me today I'd recommend not insta-lynching SpaceAnemone tomorrow because it'll be lylo.

[SpaceAnemone]

WW re-read. This took a while, but I'm forming opinions about everyone else as I go.. I want to re-read all the non-IC people in the game tonight if I can fit it in!

Early D1: tangles with JR & LL.
#296: "If you're going to vote me because I'm sarcastic, you're gonna have a bad time." -- okay, so my early reads on him at #295 might just about be explained as him feeling pleased about being a town PR.
#324: "Actually, I don't think fluffy Faust is generally scummy Faust.  More the opposite." -- town points for this, given that faust has successfully come out as a Mason.
#420 Wants not to lynch faust, Iguana or schadd. He can't recall argument against JR at this point.
#428: "Why does very little content => mild town read?" -- good question in relations to Joseph's townread on me, and it was never addressed. My assumption is that his comma was logical conjunction rather than logical implication.
#480: "I'm happy lynching either Mail-Mi or J Reggie." -- well, we know at least one of those was a town!
#593: "I kind of don't think scum!Mail-Mi claims VT here." -- this is after being happy to lynch Mail-mi at #480, when in fact Mail-mi claimed VT back at #223. So that looks inconsistent/opportunistic now.
#598: "No, I think Mail-Mi in particular is someone that's more likely to claim a PR"
#601 Votes Mail-mi (L-1)
#704 Discourages me from thinking too much about the setup. I dislike this, since more evidence is good.
#761: "Anyone feel ... Vote: Iguana ?" That seemed a bit random, and doesn't go anywhere. LL already commented that it feels like scum trying to start a mislynch wagon.
#812: "I expected to find Space scummy, but didn't really when I reread.  Posts feel somewhat honest, not really constructed." -- worth remembering he then vigged me!
#1056: "Well I want  to lynch space more.. the old "if I flip town the guy that claimed against me isn't necessarily scum" thing is pretty classic scum." -- This in response to me pointing out that WW isn't even necessarily scum when I flip town. I still feel like it's valid to point it out because I can't exactly do so after I'm dead. You'll know I'm genuine by that point :-)
#1093: "Scum had choice between two mislynches around the end of yesterday, so I'm not really sure what information is in the treatment of those wagons." I'm leaning towards agreeing with this.
#1096: "I don't think Iguana is preferable to Space." I want to come back and verify this later when I've read Iguana again.

Overall I'm leaning on believing WW as a vig for now.

[SpaceAnemone]

LaLight re-read. I think I have to apologetically retract my persistent townread on him :-(

#84: "I kinda don't like WW's play here. Too mysterious and strange. vote: WW" -- I agreed at this point.
Early game: lots of SK-hunting, even though there's not one in the set-up. Described elsewhere as a null thing.
#185: "I think town on mail-mi, he seems more reasonable than that time he was scum in Olympics." -- Disagree here, sicne Mail-mi's behaviour was one of the reasons I was so enthusiastic on his wagon. But a scum here would know that mail-mi was town...
#220 Intent to hammer. Would be bold as scum, as someone else pointed out later.
#231 Has to dig himself out of the mail-mi hammer threat by casting it as townie. Seems to be back to saying Mail-mi is a bit scummy, though.
#390 Bad stats argument for mail-mi being scum.
#398 Arguments against mail-mi are becoming a bit more tenuous. (Mail-mi thanking LL for a complement...)
#438 Townreads Silver, casting suspicion on Joseph for scumreading him.
#538 Uses mail-mi's reads to jump to faust.
#553 Jumps onto RR at Silver's suggestion.
#571 And then follows Silver onto JReggie.
#603 Intent to hammer Mail-mi.
Early D2: votes faust on the opening, and unvotes as soon as he comes out as Mason.
#660 Still looks like he's not read the set-up thoroughly.
#712 Pledges very easily on faust's thing. I feel like it's townier to want to do your own thinking.
#735 "vote: Joseph" -- this comes a few mins after Joseph re-posts his D1 reads for the second time in D2, but has no further accompanying reasoning from LaLight.
#767 Does a Joseph re-read, but there's very little commentary there, and no big conclusion.
#784: "Schadd townslips again and again" -- not really. And I'm still deeply suspicious that his first "townslip" was a set-up. I'm really suspicious of how LL and Joseph push the "schadd is townslipping argument" around here.
#845 Another intent to hammer, this time on WW. "He seems townie, but as I know his level, he can easily flip scum after all." -- faust unvotes, citing this as the "worst reason ever to vote for someone".
The wagon had been SpaceAnemone, Joseph2302, faust, schadd & Roadrunner7671 at the point LaLight signalled intent.
Also of note is that at this point, LL is voting Joseph, who may be a scumbuddy.
#907 Suddenly has been reading the setup and is out-setuping me! Also seems keen for a Joseph lynch.
#911 Townreads gkrieg, Iguana and RR in response to faust's request.
#926 Very brief response to iguana's case on him. I'm siding with Iguana now.
#927 The first half of this is over-explainng, and the second have is an emotional appeal that doesn't actually address Iguana's point that scum|LaLight would know everyone's alignment and have an easy time of faust's name-towny-people challenge.
#941 The defence of RR is good. Note this for 24 posts' time...
#943: "Man, I'm literally the only one pushing this game forward."
#965 And he puts RR at L-1 for the mislynch after all!
Start of D3 -- acting confused about lots of things, but no comment on the weird fact that nobody died in the night.
#994 Definitely engaging in the setup stuff now!
#1020 This post makes little sense. He seems to be accepting that WW is a vig, but still hypothesizeing that he could be a scum one (" Also, can we believe he really targeted SA? I think scum would kill faust."). He also points out it's likely that exactly one of us is scum, which I feel is a scum misdirection, because it's perfectly possible for WW to be vig, and I'm definitely town.
#1021 I'm still not really sure where he's trying to go with this.
#1063 Voting for me. Mistake, since usually I feel like he and I are on the same page in terms of expereince levels and understanding where the other is coming from, but clearly something's diverged now.
#1110: "vote: JReggie" Jumping around again.
#1145 And back to voting for me.
#1170 "IMO we have two scums here and can't decide which one to lynch. Ridiculous" And wrong. There's a strong possibility it's two towns, and some very smug-feeling scums off in the background somewhere.
#1191: "Also, @Schadd and @Joseph, if you are to pick up out of those two, who do you vote?" -- I'm leaning towards a LaLight, Schadd & Joseph scumteam, though if so then this is quite brave.

I need to re-read all the others, and look at interactions, but I think there might well be something here.

[Witherweaver]

It's not that strong of a possibility that both you and J Reggie are both town.

The intents to hammers are more town evidence than not, I think.  Well, depending on how they sounded.. I don't really remember.

[Witherweaver]

agreed. Intent to hammer

This in particular is a little bold for scum, especially new.  You'd usually see more pretense of pondering, i.e., explanations and such.

[Witherweaver]

well, as I said before I'm quite comfortable with mail-mi lynch. Same with JReggie. Intent to hammer

And the other one. 

[schadd]

I mean if we lynch SpaceAnemone and they flip scum and then lynch me tomorrow it'll be lylo. If we lynch SpaceAnemone and they flip town and then lynch me tomorrow we lose. If we lynch me today I'd recommend not insta-lynching SpaceAnemone tomorrow because it'll be lylo.

argh, you keep doing that. you are currently trying to argue that you're town, so don't use the implications of you being town as evidence for you being town.

#784: "Schadd townslips again and again" -- not really. And I'm still deeply suspicious that his first "townslip" was a set-up. I'm really suspicious of how LL and Joseph push the "schadd is townslipping argument" around here.

i get how the first one (wherein i thought two people were supposed to die each night) might seem suspicious, given that it's kind of a weird assumption. however, this was the first mafia game that i watched, and as you can see, two people died each night (i linked it at the end of the first night.)
  and as far as making up words (such as townslip), seriously read schadnd. if you want, i can compile a list of the, like, 50 words that i made up.
  i do think that it's a bit odd that joseph pointed them out in a positive light, though, uh three times. we're not masons but uh you knew that already.

#1191: "Also, @Schadd and @Joseph, if you are to pick up out of those two, who do you vote?" -- I'm leaning towards a LaLight, Schadd & Joseph scumteam, though if so then this is quite brave.

well, we were the two people that were neither voting for one of the main wagons nor the target of them at the time.


agree that lalight townreading rr but then shortly after putting him to l-1 seems pretty sus. he has seemed hasty and indecisive the whole time, but i'm not sure if that comes from being used to irl mafia.

It's not that strong of a possibility that both you and J Reggie are both town.

how are they conditional? a few people have been seemingly making that assumption

[SpaceAnemone]

Here's a different theory for why faust survived the night. Obviously the people scumreading me already will think I'm clutching at straws, but here it is recorded for posterity in case anyone starts re-evaluating their positions later.

Faust is IC. But what if his scumreads are so far off that he's essentially townreading exactly the scumteam. Would that be enough for them to decide to risk waiting another day with a no-kill to confuse things and try to grab some town points as doctors or RBs? It gives them bonus points if they manage to out the town PRs at the same time, and we don't know enough about the game set-up to be sure how many PRs we even expect there to be.

WW coming straight out in D2 claiming vig would have thrown a minor spanner in the works, though, because more of them would have to claim in order to soak up the hits, throwing their plan out a bit. I'm not actually sure whether or not scum gets to know the exact town PRs in the game (i.e. did they even know there was a vig already), but if I ask that now, everyone will just assume it's a desperate grab for town points.

I think schadd coming out as a doctor who protected faust is a case of that. Nobody other than me is particularly scumreading him, and lots of people are scumreading me, so he's a safe "IC" to make. The fact that he's still claiming in his most recent post to have coined the term "townslip", rather than just to have heard it in the scum QT, makes me more uncomfortable.

[schadd]

The fact that he's still claiming in his most recent post to have coined the term "townslip", rather than just to have heard it in the scum QT, makes me more uncomfortable.

so, would it make you more comfortable if i told you that i heard it in the scum qt? or, rather, if i changed my answer, would it be ok?
  what can i say. it's really not a hard thing to come up with. "scumslip" had already appeared twice (here, here) and it's intuitive what it means; something slips out that indicates that you're scum. townslip is an obvious translation of that concept, and well, somebody came up with it the first time.
  again, if you don't think i'm capable of that sort of ingenuity, read schadnd. or any of my other posts on the forum, wherein you will find that it's exactly how my brain works. this one, for example, where i hear something that sounds like song lyrics. and i don't even like that song.

[Joseph2302]

So what are we at now?  Looks like

SpaceAnemone (3): Witherweaver, gkrieg13, LaLight
gkrieg13 (1): Joseph2302
J Reggie (3): faust, Iguana,  schadd

Not Voting (2): SpaceAnemone, J Reggie,


Why is Joseph voting for Gkrieg?

Ftfy

I don't remember either

Residual remains of my D2 theory that one of WW or gkrieg was scum.

Will need to catch up tomorrow, lots of things have been going on.
Will change vote after a proper reread.

[Witherweaver]

Where did that theory come from?

[SpaceAnemone]

Gkrieg re-read. I haven't paid enough attention to him all game, though I think he's pretty convinced against me, so let's try to avoid omgus here...


#48: "vote: WW vote: JReggie. it was clearly on purpose." (it being the lack of whitespace J Reggie used).
#66: "Uh so I was kind of hoping to actually draw mason this game.  But that would probably result in an auto loss for us."
#181 On scum trying to out town PRs in D1: "Maybe this is true for most scum, but is it true of WW?"
#214: "vote: mail-mi. L-1!"
#217&#219: "That wasn't the reaction I was expected", "Well I expect d his reaction to not be as calm for one."
#225: "Well because he is at L-1. Usually people are mad when they are put to L-1 with intent so quickly"
#240: "I think LaLight looks pretty townie from that. He just looks like newb!town."
#247: "Ya I don't really follow this reasoning. And coming from Faust it just seems off." Shade on faust, who's now a known IC. Clarifies a bit for Silver that he doesn't like the reasoning that people only don't sheep faust when he's on scum. Kind of null on gkrieg for this exchange, I guess.
#282: "Sorry this game is being put on the back burner for a couple of days.  Will do rereads in another day or so." This was when all the stress was happening at the end of BSG, I think, and I had sympathy with it.
#318: "vote: faust"
#343: "I just don't think Joseph is scummy, and the way you tried to get the wagon going is scummy.  The idea that people not sheeping you means someone is scum is just so wrong." I think this is in response to faust asking about the Joseph wagon thing.
#364 Admits to impatient!iguana that he hasn't been very active so far in this game.
#367: "I think my position on Joseph and my putting mail-mi at L-1 were townie" -- is this just because everyone thinks Joseph is an easy mislynch?
#468 Still thinks faust is the scummiest person, but moves relictantly to the mail-mi mislynch. Hmm...
#470 "It doesn't seem like there are enough people onboard to lynch Faust, so mail-mi is better than J Reggie"
#492 Still disagreeing with Silver, who's clearly backing faust up. Interestingly insists that Joseph is "soooooooo town!"
#493 Insists J Reggie has been present and noticeable.
#581 Intent to hammer J Reggie.
#668: "Good thing Faust is IC now. Now I don't have to reread him."
#714: "Don't we still have plurality lynch?  I would definitely do this once we don't have plurality lynch. Not so sure before then" -- I think this is townie, though I don't really see how much of a difference the plurality lynch aspect makes to the overall result.
#728 Good logic, and major townpoints from me here.
#731 And again, yes, we should be re-reading and stuff.
#751 Says Joseph seems more scummy in D2 and backs it up with an example.
#756 Votes Joseph.
#759 More defence of his Joseph vote. I feel like he believes in it.
#793 Picking at Joseph more. I agree it's not a good defence, particularly as Joseph felt the need to point out his terrible reads list twice...
#794 Townreads schadd with quite a bit of consideration. This sort of thing is why my feeling that schadd is scum probably won't convince many people, but I also think gkreig's logic is reasonable too.
#796 Wagon analysis to say that at least on of WW, Joseph, me and J Reggie is almost certianly scum. Seems legit.
#815 Says I sound similar to desperate town!me in BSG. Gee, I wonder why! :-P
#827 Read on me. "Overall none of their posts give me huge TOWN signs.  No flashing lights.  Definitely on my would-lynch list with Joseph." Could have been worse, I guess.
#843 Good read on WW putting him at null from read and town from gut.
#885: "RR is high on my scum list for people that were off wagon. Lots of nothing even for RR"
#897 Votes RR, even though he says Joseph would be better.
#910 Top town reads are schadd, LaLight, & iguana, in response to faust's request.
#945 Explains his townread on LaLight. I fear he may be underestimating the intervening experience LL's been getting by playing in a lot of games.
#952: "Agreed.  I'm also always up to lynch Joseph's partner SA first." I don't like this because the only time I've been lynched so far was a mislynch by gkrieg, so I think I'm easily mislynched too.. like 100% of the time!
#1008 Votes me, and also says he's not a RB. Not quite sure where the second part of that was meant to be heading.
#1051: "I still think SA is the highest on my lynch list today.  WW's results only cement that in my mind, especially considering we may very well have enough letters for scum to be bulletproof."
#1076 Undoing Joseph's bad setup logic. This is good.
#1102 "In my eyes, iguana and faust and schadd are townie.  Then order of scumminess is SA>Joseph>J Reggie>LaLight>WW" Okat, so I like that Joseph and LaLight are relatively high on this list. If they end up getting lynched and flipping town, then please someone check out schadd as the third one? I expect someone to have killed me off by then :-P

Yeah, in summary, I'm thinking Gkreig is solidly town, though obviously kind of misguided by the fact he gets a scummy vibe off town!me. I don't expect to change his mind on that, but at least if I go before the end of the game, I don't get into the stressful position of trying to persuade him I'm town when there are so few people left, like in BSG. That wasn't fun :-(


PPE: 8 or more things... will catch up in a moment!

[SpaceAnemone]

PPE: 8 or more things... will catch up in a moment!

Huh.. or not. Seems like I'm reading the game in too many tabs at once.

Not sure I have time to read more than one more person tonight, though :-(

[SpaceAnemone]

Okay, this needs to be my last post before bed, because it's almost midnight.

Vote: LaLight

I know a vote for JR would be more likely to save me in the short term, but I'm still townreading him (though I did the re-read quickly and without making lists of comments, so I can't post it), so I don't want to do that on principle.

I'd also be happy going for a Joseph vote, though I'd better do another re-read on him first before fully committing to that. The two people I really haven't done a proper job on are Iguana and Schadd, so I'll have to get to them tomorrow night, assuming there hasn't been a lynch by that point.

[faust]

k
do you disagree that ww might fakeclaim, then?

I don't really believe it, because:
- the breadcrumb
- scum!WW would not say "I just shot whoever faust thought is scum"
- in your scenario (MCETTT), 1-shot Vig is counterclaimable. That's a dangerous road for scum.