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Author Topic: M83: Duel Mafia (Game Over, Town Wins!)  (Read 101763 times)

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gkrieg13

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #725 on: July 31, 2016, 12:42:27 pm »

Hmmmm. I guess the Jimmmm logic is flawed. I guess if ash ghouls, there is no chance of him dying and it was clear that ash would ghoul. All this really tells us is that there is a scum between chairs and Faust probably, which doesn't give us much at all. It really is just a vanilla game where we don't know who scum tried to kill last night now.
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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #726 on: July 31, 2016, 12:43:04 pm »

at least let me finish D2 on seprix before lynching me.

AND LISTEN TO MY READS AFTER I FLIP.  Please

right now I am fairly solidly in the Seprix/Reggie remaining scum camp.  Seprix for sure, Reggie possibly.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #727 on: July 31, 2016, 12:47:57 pm »

Eh the case on Seprix is getting better. No one hammer until he finishes it ok?
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #728 on: July 31, 2016, 12:53:54 pm »

I am using reads. Seprix is towny this game, and e is classic scum e right now.

If you want evidence, go read the last couple games where scum!e tunneled town!seprix.

There's always a case on Seprix. It's Seprix. He says weird stuff. Honestly, one of the best ways to find scum on f.ds is to ask yourself this: which player who should know better is jumping on Seprix?

It's because when you're scum, you look through all the players trying to find a town who looks scummy. And Seprix will always be there for you, saying something scummy.

But Seprix's town narrative this game is totally obvious. He's been saying exactly what he thinks the whole way through.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

J Reggie

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #729 on: July 31, 2016, 02:58:32 pm »

Sorry about the long absence. I'm not v/la anymore so I'll try to get back into this game. I guess I need to do a big reread and give some thoughts, but right now I don't really have any idea.

Jimmmmm

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #730 on: July 31, 2016, 03:47:43 pm »

Sorry guys, got some catching up to do today.

Unvote
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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #731 on: July 31, 2016, 04:43:01 pm »

- Lucky is he who is not bothered by the stupid things other people say -

Vote Count 3.3

Seprix (1): e
e (3): Seprix, gkrieg13, iguanaiguana

Not Voting (5): Joseph2302, J Reggie, Egork, Haddock, Jimmmmm

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Aug 5, 17:00 forum time. That is in 5 days and 0+ hours.

Joseph2302

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #732 on: July 31, 2016, 04:54:46 pm »

- Lucky is he who is not bothered by the stupid things other people say -

Vote Count 3.3

Seprix (1): e
e (3): Seprix, gkrieg13, iguanaiguana

Not Voting (5): Joseph2302, J Reggie, Egork, Haddock, Jimmmmm

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Aug 5, 17:00 forum time. That is in 5 days and 0+ hours.
We don't need to rush into anything right now tgwn- still 5 days.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

gkrieg13

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #733 on: July 31, 2016, 06:48:04 pm »

Ok I'm going to do a few rereads while I have some time.  We are waiting to hear back about our offer on our house, so I need something to keep me busy so I don't go crazy.

So I guess I should give e a really good reread first.  Then probably Seprix and J Reggie.

e:

- Comes out in support of the not giving reads lists plan.

- Says that my case on teamlyle was me making something out of nothing.  This is kind of true.  I misunderstood what teamlyle was saying, and him giving up really felt like scum giving up to me.

- States ash is town for his handling of the Jimmm thing.  Giving away town reads early in the game is a town tell for him.

- Says Seprix, iguana, and Reggie are scum. 

- He spends two long posts talking about theory stuff.  Who scum should put as duel targets etc.  Scum points for this.

- finally puts a real vote on someone.  On Seprix

- Then he starts to tunnel Seprix.  Tells people Seprix is the correct lynch.

Yeah, tried to post yesterday but the forum was being weird.

Also, vote people for this game. Using meta is cool, but going outside the Mafia universe is not

- I thought this post was really scummy.  Telling people to throw meta away is just not good.

D2:

- Heavily defends the ash lynch. 

D3:

- votes Seprix again.

- says I come off scummy from D2 again, I disagree strongly with this.

Off the top of my head:

gkrieg13-scummier. On the teamlyle mislynch and scummy movement off Faust and onto ashersky in the duel
Joseph2302-town. 98% certainty
Haddock- townie (ish). Doesn't seem to have a huge footprint in the game, but maybe because others are stealing the spotlight. He plays a good scum game, but leaning town for now
e-IC
Egork- always a bit difficult to tell. Votes ashersky fairly late in the day, had he done it earlier could very well have lynched ash. Off wagon D1, slight scum lean.
J Reggie - scummy. Self aware scummy type. Plus posts from d1 and such.
Seprix- scummy. I can compile a case in one post later, by for now you can read the d3 dialogue and make the educated decision and vote seprix
iguanaiguana-  had iguana as scum d1, not as confident in that read. Lands him in the nullish category.
Jimmmmm- townie. his d1 leans strongly town in my opinion. Didn't do anything to change that d2

- He posts a reads list here.  So...  Keeps tunneling Seprix, keeps going after J Reggie, says iguana seems towner.  I dunno.  His reads have stayed the same for pretty much the entire game, which makes me pause a bit. 

vote: e

If you don't get lynched today, I hope you choose to duel me

This is what you call an OMGUS read. Notice the general lack of content along with a strong-seeming read. Classic OMGUS.

- This post just seems so not e-like.  It really just doesn't fit him.

Reading end of the duel. Egork comes across scummy and Joseph very townie

Gkrieg also comes across slightly scummy for his progression from ash to faust.

Wouldn't be surprised by gkrieg/seprix remaining scum

How does that come off as scummy at all?

Coming out gung-ho against ashersky without explaining, adding explanation later. Then ash posts some stuff defending him. I come out strong for ash. People start shifting over. Scum needed a short duel with a quick death to win there, and you realized (along with your scum buddy seprix) that faust was going to lose. So you shift over to the winning duel

- I mean even with this post, he tries to get town points again by pointing out that he defended ash. 

- I'll say this again, I think that tunneling a new player is ok.  I think it is good to put a little pressure on them, because it can be very telling.  I was honestly really surprised when he flipped town.

Please, a case.

Seprix is voting me because ashersky grew suspicious of me and scum!seprix wants an easy way to justify his mislynching me.

Gkrieg is voting me because OMGUS

Not sure why jimmmmm is voting me other than wagons are cool.

- His case on me and then this post just seem to come from scum!e.  The way that he pursued my lynch, by discounting my read on him and making the teamlyle mislynch look like teamlyle was conf!town just don't seem right.

Why on earth would I assume Ash was going to win? Why not just sit tight where I was? Nobody would 'suspect' me as scum if I stayed put. My switch was way too open and flashy. I mean, I'm getting shit for lynching scum. Ludicrous.

No, lynching scum is good. Being open and flashy is what I think is scummy.

The thing is, I know scum bussed.
Final Vote Count Day 2

ashersky (3): faust, J Reggie, Egork
faust (6): Jimmmmm, gkrieg13, iguanaiguana, Haddock, Seprix, ashersky

Not Voting (2): e, Joseph2302

With 11 alive, it took 6 to lynch.

I know I am town. I have very strong feelings Joseph is town. So unless j Reggie and egork are both scum (I dont think they both are, maybe one) then scum bussed. I think it was a relatively early bus, and I think that scum is you, seprix

- This post isn't consistent.  He says that it would've been an early bus, but Seprix was like the last person on the wagon.

- However, I do like this case on Seprix.  I think it is well thought out, and seems like it's genuine.  It would've been better if he hadn't been tunneling Seprix the whole game. Like if he had ever voted for anyone other than Seprix, which goes way against his meta.

TL;DR

So I don't know.  His D1 isn't much to talk about.  The things that really catch my eye are:  He only voted for one person this whole game, even though he says that we should be able to find scum by their votes, his case on me comes off as scummy.  I don't even think it is completely OMGUS, like I really think that the case is scummy.   The third reason, is that his play has been against his meta.  He gives off town reads D1, but then doesn't vote as often as town!e does.  His reads also usually change more from what I can remember.  He has been V/LA, so I'm kinda on the fence.  Right now, I think I would be fine with his lynch, but I want to look into other people as well.

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gkrieg13

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #734 on: July 31, 2016, 06:50:07 pm »

I also liked iguana and Haddock's reactions to my Jimmmm case.  Town on them.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #735 on: July 31, 2016, 07:06:55 pm »

J Reggie:

- His reaction to the chairs plan seems townie.  Excited that it will work.

This is my first time as town in an open setup, so I'm really enjoying all this setup-solvy stuff.  I'm glad town didn't do that in Fruit Ninja.

PPE: I lost count

- This just seems townie to me.

- Other than his vote on teamlyle, he spends most of the beginning of the day talking about theory.



I will follow the Ghoul plan tonight, target the person on the list after me.

I love your plan. I bow before its simple genius and vow to follow it unless I forget to submit a night action on time.

Only it's chairs plan. Though it is good and I'll follow on it

In other news I finally read all you posted while I was sleeping. Jimmm's answers seems off, but he confronting ash do not make much sense otherwise. Joseph repeating his behavior from earlier town game seems much more interesting and I do not see why he had not been given much scrutiny for doing this (there were votes, but I think their motivation had much more to do with behavior itself, not associated meta)

I'd Vote: Joseph for now

I voted Joseph for the reason you said, but then Jimmmmm voted me for doing that. Maybe Jimmmmm and Joseph are partners  ;)

I'll do the ghoul thing. Unless I die IRL or something.

Also, I've done a bit of thinking about who scum might want to choose for duels. I suggest other people do that but DON'T POST YOUR THOUGHTS UNTIL TOMORROW. We win this game by giving scum as little information as possible.

- Eh I like this post as well.  Very townie thus far, even if there hasn't been too much content.

Seprix does have a point that we may want to delay the usage of our nightkill (which it is, effectively). The main reason against it is that scum have more power to drive discussion in a direction of their choosing the longer all of them remain alive.

No, we should go ahead and kill mafia as soon as possible. I want to get that D2 win!

Maybe you and Seprix are partners  :P

- This post is interesting.  It is either super bold as scum, or it is townie. 

- Keeps going after teamlyle as the best lynch

- His case on teamlyle is the vote that he had on Jimmmm and his subsequent unvote.  Eh.

I think this is actually a case where a shorter day benefits town more.  More interactions between players (which is usually why town wants long days) means more of a chance for scum to pick a duel that they can win.  The nights are short, so hopefully we can get mafia to make a rash decision on the duel if someone hammers soon.

- This post is super awful mega scummy, or not thinking town.

D2:

- Says that he is tempted to say ash is town for pushing the ghoul plan.

The whole argument of ash being town because he would have died in the night as scum if the plan had gone correctly seems like exactly the type of thing ash would plan as scum. Also, I really don't understand the unvoting thing. If ash is town, then Faust would be conf!scum to him, and the best thing you can do is vote for conf!scum. So I think I'll vote: ashersky.

- This is one of his next few posts.  Mega scum points for this reasoning to vote.

The whole argument of ash being town because he would have died in the night as scum if the plan had gone correctly seems like exactly the type of thing ash would plan as scum. Also, I really don't understand the unvoting thing. If ash is town, then Faust would be conf!scum to him, and the best thing you can do is vote for conf!scum. So I think I'll vote: ashersky.

Who argued that I would have died at night?  What kind of argument is that, even?  I literally don't understand it. 
If the players which mafia chooses die before the start of the next day, then another player from the required alignment is randomized. However, mafia is allowed (and encouraged) to choose a backup player for each side, who will then be chosen if the first choice dies.
Scum could have chosen a backup, therefore faust could have been the sacrifice target.

But why choose a backup?  The absolute most sensible thing to do as scum is to assume town plays well enough to follow the simplest plan on the planet and just work around it.

There are no absolute guarantees here, but I'm basing my analysis on known information and most likely decisions.  Scum plans for the plan and does what they need to to get what they think is most beneficial to them.

This is what made me think that. Maybe I'm understanding it wrong.

My argument is:

1) Scum knew the town plan.
2) Scum assumed it would be followed successfully.
3) Scum chose their duel targets with that in mind and chose duel targets that would absolutely NOT die.
4) Scum chose their NK target to ensure that the ghoul plan would result in scum other than Faust dying.

If you think I'm the scum, just switch the names.  Faust points out that if I'm scum and wanted to ensure an ashersky v. Faust duel -- Jimmmm has to be scum, otherwise I'd have died if both chairs and Jimmmm used ghoul correctly.

I'd say that makes me more likely to be town, unless you think Jimmmm is in fact scum.  Because with Faust as scum, the actually scum who would die could be anyone from chairs all the way around the list until you get back to Faust.

Ok, I guess you didn't understand what I was saying. Since there is a possibility of having a backup duel, it makes sense that scum would try this unlikely gamble because if it pays off, they have this argument that ash is making now. The fact that he was so quick to make that argument proves that point further.

- Again, his conspiracy theory just reads as all kinds of off to me.  I think J Reggie is smart enough to see this can't possibly be true.

This is really reminding me of fanfic mafia. Let's not fall for ash's tactics this time.

- Another scummy defense.

So I don't really know what to think here. My gut still tells me ash is scum, but I see him finding me scummy as more likely to come from town. But I honestly can't see Faust as scum here.

Ftfm

- Even more scummy.  He just has to be so sure of his town read on faust, because he has only two choices here.  The duels make it really hard for scum to hide.

TL;DR

After having a pretty townie first day, I think I can see most of the stuff I saw as townie coming from smartscum!J Reggie.  He does seem to be a pretty bold scum player, and he fits pretty decently as a partner for faust.  I also think his post with the smiley face is pretty scummy seeing that faust has flipped scum. 

I'll vote: J Reggie right now.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #736 on: July 31, 2016, 08:23:56 pm »

- Lucky is he who is not bothered by the stupid things other people say -

Vote Count 3.3

Seprix (1): e
e (3): Seprix, gkrieg13, iguanaiguana

Not Voting (5): Joseph2302, J Reggie, Egork, Haddock, Jimmmmm

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Aug 5, 17:00 forum time. That is in 5 days and 0+ hours.
We don't need to rush into anything right now tgwn- still 5 days.

Dude, if everyone just occasionally popped in occasionally to say "We have plenty of time, guys" like you do, then nothing would ever get anywhere and scum would win every game.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #737 on: July 31, 2016, 08:27:23 pm »



Yeah, tried to post yesterday but the forum was being weird.

Also, vote people for this game. Using meta is cool, but going outside the Mafia universe is not

- I thought this post was really scummy.  Telling people to throw meta away is just not good.



This was just e disagreeing with me because I got really mad at Teamlyle and voted him once you guys blindsided me in forum survivor. He wasn't saying not to use meta.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

iguanaiguana

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #738 on: July 31, 2016, 08:41:11 pm »

Gkrieg, I dont' really agree with your reasoning on J Reggie. Scum probably knew from close to the beginning of the game that Faust would be the first duel, and they know that regardless of what they say about Faust/Ashersky, both will flip at the end of day. So if he was scum, he would have known that his strong defending of Faust was about to look really really bad. It takes a really bold scum player to do that.

J Reggie could be scum but I like our shots with e better.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

Jimmmmm

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #739 on: July 31, 2016, 09:23:32 pm »

After some rereading, e is probably Town. I like my original Vote: J Reggie
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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #740 on: July 31, 2016, 10:14:15 pm »

After some rereading, e is probably Town. I like my original Vote: J Reggie

Any reason?
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

Jimmmmm

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #741 on: July 31, 2016, 10:22:53 pm »

Guys. Enough of the knee jerk voting.

The wagon will be telling, but seriously. 0% chance ash is scum

It takes a ballsy scum to say this when the ash lynch looks probable but far from certain. Otherwise I find him generally Townie.

I'm looking at JR and Egor at the moment, will reread them properly and post more on them when I get the chance.
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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #742 on: August 01, 2016, 01:02:18 pm »

- However, I do like this case on Seprix.  I think it is well thought out, and seems like it's genuine.  It would've been better if he hadn't been tunneling Seprix the whole game. Like if he had ever voted for anyone other than Seprix, which goes way against his meta.

I haven't voted anyone but seprix? Didn't even realize that.

I admit, I do tend to tunnel seprix. A lot. I really do feel like this time is different than the others. Still haven't found the time to do the full reread post of seprix's D2, but his movement from lynching ash, to lynching faust, then on d3 coming out and following ash's last posted read I think is a very strong scum tell.

I will throw some variety out there just to help with some wagon development for now.

Vote: J Reggie
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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #743 on: August 01, 2016, 01:08:07 pm »

Also, gkrieg's rereads come across townie to me
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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #744 on: August 01, 2016, 01:11:30 pm »

I would love to see what Reggie has to say in response to gkrieg. I think a faust/reggie/seprix team makes a lot of sense when you think about faust being selected for the duel.

Also still have haddock and egork to worry about. I think Joseph and iguana and jimmmmm are most likely town, and leaning more town than scum on gkrieg.
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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #745 on: August 01, 2016, 06:16:33 pm »

- Lucky is he who is not bothered by the stupid things other people say -

Vote Count 3.3

Seprix (1): e
e (3): Seprix, gkrieg13, iguanaiguana

Not Voting (5): Joseph2302, J Reggie, Egork, Haddock, Jimmmmm

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Aug 5, 17:00 forum time. That is in 5 days and 0+ hours.
We don't need to rush into anything right now tgwn- still 5 days.

Dude, if everyone just occasionally popped in occasionally to say "We have plenty of time, guys" like you do, then nothing would ever get anywhere and scum would win every game.
It's cool, we've got 4 days.
Chill.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #746 on: August 01, 2016, 06:17:03 pm »

Also, I'll be reading /rereading tomorrow
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #747 on: August 02, 2016, 12:15:44 am »

*yawn*

I still need to finish up on seprix, unfortunately not sure if I will have time before deadline. Can't access the forums from a work computer and not doing it on my phone
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gkrieg13

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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #748 on: August 02, 2016, 01:14:06 am »

There are way too many people that need prods, or haven't done anything today. I mean I know I haven't done much either, but I am trying to at least comment on what is going on
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Re: M83: Duel Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #749 on: August 02, 2016, 04:59:55 am »

There are way too many people that need prods, or haven't done anything today. I mean I know I haven't done much either, but I am trying to at least comment on what is going on
I'm super guilty of this. I've become so disconnected from this game. I promise I'll contribute tonight.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87
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