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[gkrieg13]

I'm good for Seprix or RR.

vote: RR

[iguanaiguana]

I told Haddock who I requested and he also told me who he requested.

Why are you not voting for the confirmed scum?

I am.

[Joseph2302]

I'm good for Seprix or RR.

vote: RR

Well, they're both scum, the only question is what order to kill them

[EFHW]

Vote Count 2.1

Seprix (2): ced, iguana, Awaclus, Haddock
Roadrunner (0): Joseph, gkrieg
gkrieg (0): ADK

not voting (3): Roadrunner, Seprix, silverspawn

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to majority lynch

Deadline: Tuesday, June 21st at 5 p.m. forum time

[Seprix]

I wrote this amazing long post, but I accidentally closed the window like a complete idiot. I don't want to write all of that stuff again right now, so here's the tl;dr: Basically, I confirmed that Awaclus and Haddock are town, that Silverspawn is likely town, and thus the alternatives are Ced, gkreig and Iguana as scum partners.

[Seprix]

Joseph is also likely town, but RR is also a viable option.

[Awaclus]

Basically, I confirmed that Awaclus and Haddock are town

Well, that part I agree with.

[silverspawn]

I wrote this amazing long post, but I accidentally closed the window like a complete idiot.

every time I make a big post I feel the fear of this happening dwelling up inside of me. Fortunately it has not happened for quite a while.

if it is too long, open a .txt. copy half of it there. then, if you do close it, you only have to rewrite a part.

[silverspawn]

so I'll probably have to  invest a bit more at some point but I don't like Seprix, purely based on the faust thing. If you want to convince me, explain why his claim is so much more likely from scum than town.

[iguanaiguana]

so I'll probably have to  invest a bit more at some point but I don't like Seprix, purely based on the faust thing. If you want to convince me, explain why his claim is so much more likely from scum than town.

protecting a partner....?

[silverspawn]

I don't exactly remember what happened, but why is being a lover even a defense? What is the problem with lynching lovers? You get two lynches instead of 1.

[Seprix]

so I'll probably have to  invest a bit more at some point but I don't like Seprix, purely based on the faust thing. If you want to convince me, explain why his claim is so much more likely from scum than town.

protecting a partner....?

Think about this for a second. The odds of this blowing up in my face are so astronomically high, and it did in fact blow up in my face.

[Seprix]

I misread that.

[gkrieg13]

I wrote this amazing long post, but I accidentally closed the window like a complete idiot. I don't want to write all of that stuff again right now, so here's the tl;dr: Basically, I confirmed that Awaclus and Haddock are town, that Silverspawn is likely town, and thus the alternatives are Ced, gkreig and Iguana as scum partners.

But what about ADK?

[Awaclus]

I wrote this amazing long post, but I accidentally closed the window like a complete idiot.

every time I make a big post I feel the fear of this happening dwelling up inside of me. Fortunately it has not happened for quite a while.

if it is too long, open a .txt. copy half of it there. then, if you do close it, you only have to rewrite a part.

A better solution is to write shorter posts.

so I'll probably have to  invest a bit more at some point but I don't like Seprix, purely based on the faust thing. If you want to convince me, explain why his claim is so much more likely from scum than town.

protecting a partner....?

Think about this for a second. The odds of this blowing up in my face are so astronomically high, and it did in fact blow up in my face.

So you admit that you were trying to protect a partner and now it blew up in your face?

[Seprix]

I wrote this amazing long post, but I accidentally closed the window like a complete idiot. I don't want to write all of that stuff again right now, so here's the tl;dr: Basically, I confirmed that Awaclus and Haddock are town, that Silverspawn is likely town, and thus the alternatives are Ced, gkreig and Iguana as scum partners.

But what about ADK?

Oh yes, he seems townie, but ADK is always townie, so he's harder to read, like Ced.

So you admit that you were trying to protect a partner and now it blew up in your face?

I read the post Iguana made wrong.

[Joseph2302]

I don't exactly remember what happened, but why is being a lover even a defense? What is the problem with lynching lovers? You get two lynches instead of 1.

Claiming lovers when it's clearly a lie is bad.
Was reasonably obvious RR and I were lovers.
And 2 kills beats 1 implies that RR is scum to me.

[Seprix]

Two kills is worse when it both hits town, SS.

[silverspawn]

Two kills is worse when it both hits town, SS.

Yes. I was talking about the average outcome, not the worst outcome.

[Seprix]

Two kills is worse when it both hits town, SS.

Yes. I was talking about the average outcome, not the worst outcome.

That is the average outcome. Best case scenario is two scum, good case is scum/town, but as there are far more town than scum, it's most likely to be two town.

[Awaclus]

I read the post Iguana made wrong.

[x] Doubt

Two kills is worse when it both hits town, SS.

Yes. I was talking about the average outcome, not the worst outcome.

That is the average outcome. Best case scenario is two scum, good case is scum/town, but as there are far more town than scum, it's most likely to be two town.

No, that is not the average outcome. I don't remember how to calculate the expectation off the top of my head (I'm currently taking a break from my workout so I'm not in the best state of mind to think clearly), but the odds of hitting at least one scum are almost 60% and the odds of hitting two scum are around 5% so I guess the average outcome is around 0.6 scum lynched.

[silverspawn]

Two kills is worse when it both hits town, SS.

Yes. I was talking about the average outcome, not the worst outcome.

That is the average outcome. Best case scenario is two scum, good case is scum/town, but as there are far more town than scum, it's most likely to be two town.

No, that is the most likely outcome. it is not the average outcome. The average outcome is not among the possible outcomes, it's the mean of all outcomes weighted by their probability. If we lynch one player, the average outcome is to have lynched 0,4 scum players or something even though we always lynch either 1 or 0. Unless average doesn't mean that (?)  in which case I meant the mean outcome.

Look. We usually lynch -> NK -> lynch -> NK. In order to get rid of one person who might be scum, we also have to pay with 1 guaranteed town life. So here there's a chance for a second lynch. Sounds good, right? Well, it's not quite a lynch since it doesn't hit whom we chose, but it still seems preferable over nothing. Being lovers sounds like an argument to lynch someone day 1, to me.

[iguanaiguana]

I don't exactly remember what happened, but why is being a lover even a defense? What is the problem with lynching lovers? You get two lynches instead of 1.

Claiming lovers when it's clearly a lie is bad.
Was reasonably obvious RR and I were lovers.
And 2 kills beats 1 implies that RR is scum to me.

The two of you as lovers is pretty hilarious.

[iguanaiguana]

Joseph isn't Wiley Coyote but it's still funny to me

[Seprix]

Poor Silverspawn is trying to just read a book, and Joseph won't leave him alone.